Is Universal “Beating” Disney World?
Universal Orlando versus Walt Disney World is nothing new. It’s a debate that has played out between the two fandoms for decades. The recent twist is how Universal is “winning” or “eating Disney’s lunch” or going to “destroy” Walt Disney World once Epic Universe opens. Perhaps most interestingly, this sentiment is increasingly coming from diehard–albeit disenchanted–Disney fans and not exclusively Universal loyalists.
Let’s start with our familiar refrain: this debate is dumb. This isn’t war or religion or politics or sports or whatever. You do not have to take a blood oath to one theme park complex and swear off visiting the other. This ‘rivalry’ is mostly an artificial creation of theme park fans, and there’s absolutely no need to be loyal to one at the expense of the other. Enjoy both. Comcast will not be upset; the Walt Disney Company won’t feel betrayed. We promise.
Of course, today’s everything-as-team-sports mentality isn’t easy to shake, so some of you will be reflexively anti-Universal or anti-Disney. If that’s your perspective, look at the debate selfishly. Competition is good for consumers. Even if we were Walt Disney World diehards with zero interest in Universal’s Epic Universe and never planned to visit, we would selfishly want it to be as awesome as possible. Universal being better and having more drawing power incentivizes Disney to likewise improve.
To be clear, that is not our personal perspective. We cannot wait for Epic Universe, and plan to be there for day one. You don’t get many large-scale theme park grand openings anymore, and we wouldn’t miss it. There’s something about the spectacle, fanfare, and communal energy that we love.
For us, Universal Studios Florida, Islands of Adventure, Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom are all like children. We might secretly have personal favorites, but we more or less love them all. We’ve been Annual Passholders at multiple Universal parks (Orlando, Hollywood, Japan) and every Disney parks & resort complex (except Shanghai). Obviously, we enjoy them all a lot.
However, we’ll also be the first to admit that we spend far more time at Disney. Just want to get all of that out of the way before the inevitable accusations of bias. We probably are biased–everyone is to some extent–but we very much want to see Epic Universe and everything else at Universal Orlando be a massive success.
If you’re a theme park fan, it’s in your best interests for all of these parks–even the ones you don’t visit–to continue getting stronger. A better and more resilient industry means future investments, talent entering the field, theme parks being taken more seriously by investors and their corporate overlords, and so much more.
We’ve already mentioned Universal’s Epic Universe, which is essentially the elephant in the room and what inspired this article in the first place. Epic Universe is the third theme park being built in Central Florida by Comcast (assuming you don’t actually count Volcano Bay as a theme park, which we do not–it’s a water park).
On earnings calls over the course of the last year-plus, Comcast executives have praised the success of their parks in their post-reopening recovery. This is a big reason why Epic Universe is full steam ahead, and slated to open by Summer 2025. Many fans want Walt Disney World to have an “answer” to Epic Universe, and the only thing that can really compete with a new theme park is a new theme park.
That absolutely will not happen. (Here’s Why a 5th Theme Park Will NOT Be Built at Walt Disney World in the Next Decade.) Even if Disney wanted to build a new theme park and announced one today (they don’t, see above) there’s a 0.000% chance the company could have it open by Summer 2025.
If Walt Disney World started work on Tropical Americas at Animal Kingdom tomorrow (they won’t) that land probably wouldn’t be done by Summer 2025. In all likelihood, Tropical Americas is the next major project on the horizon (outside of ride reimaginings) and it’ll start in late 2024 and be done in 2026.
It appears increasingly likely that Walt Disney World is going to “sit out” 2025 and not try to compete with Epic Universe. (I remain of the belief that a reimagined Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster will be the tentpole addition of 2025. That plus maybe a couple of redone things in EPCOT. Enough to be marketable, but not to actually compete with Universal.) In reality, Disney won’t have any official answer to Epic Universe. They won’t acknowledge the project as a threat or Universal as a bona fide competitor.
This lack of an “answer” to Universal’s Epic Universe is probably a big part of why disillusioned Walt Disney World diehards are now claiming that Universal is “winning,” “going to destroy,” or “beat” Disney. Fans are frustrated at Walt Disney World’s seeming complacency or arrogance, and want to see them “punished” for it as a result.
There’s also the reality of how Walt Disney World has alienated its most loyal supporters over the last several years, with cutbacks and the removal of on-site perks. Fans are still angry about the loss of Disney’s Magical Express, free FastPass, the underwhelming 50th Anniversary, nickel and diming, catering to the affluent, crowds and long lines, and a laundry list of other complaints about Walt Disney World. (Not to mention Disney’s falling reputation, which is based on all of the above plus other issues.) We’ve discussed all of this at length–no sense in belaboring the point here.
The bottom line is that guests feel taken for granted, and want to see Walt Disney World “taken down a notch” as a result. I suspect this is the crux of why so many current and former fans want to Epic Universe to be a “Disney killer.” (By the way, all of these quotes are things we’ve actually heard fans say about Universal and Disney in the last year.)
It’s not so much because fans believe all of this to be true–it’s because they want to believe. After being mistreated by Disney and having their loyalty taken for granted, there’s a strong desire for schadenfreude. At least, that’s my theory. There has definitely been a sea-change in attitudes towards Universal among Disney fans. There used to be some of this sentiment, but mostly dismissiveness towards whatever Universal was doing. Not anymore. Now fans are actively rooting for Universal’s success and Disney’s demise.
I’ll preface this next section by saying that I can understand where many disenchanted Walt Disney World fans are coming from and agree with plenty of that sentiment. As a longtime fan, one of my fears for a while has been that Disney is inflicting long-term brand damage for short-term gain.
I don’t agree with all of the complaints. Citing high crowds as a reason for Disney’s downfall is basically a Yogi Berra quote, expressed unironically. I also don’t agree with the volume or intensity of the frustration. Nevertheless, there’s a reason guest satisfaction scores have been down, and also why Bob Iger is working to undo damage and lure back former fans.
With that said–and this is probably where I’m going to lose many of you–I think a lot of the above is very much wishful thinking on the part of disillusioned Disney fans. We’ve been down this road before, and these types of predictions or sentiment have been wrong time and time again.
This time is different. Except, it never is.
Prior to the Epic Universe excitement, this occurred most recently when the phased reopening began a few years ago. In case you don’t remember, Universal made an aggressive play to lure locals and fans to its parks–deals on tickets and Annual Passes, seasonal offerings, quickly restored entertainment, even Halloween Horror Nights houses open to day guests. Meanwhile, Walt Disney World made a bunch of guest-unfriendly changes, suspended the sale of new Annual Passes, etc.
Admittedly, we thought it was a brilliant approach that would pay dividends for Universal–and at the expense of Walt Disney World’s standing among the growing population in Central Florida. We were wrong, at least about the last part.
In the end, it didn’t impact Walt Disney World negatively at all. When Annual Passes returned for the first time after a lengthy absence–more expensive than ever–they quickly sold out. Both parks soared during the period of pent-up demand, doing record revenue and per-guest spending numbers.
With the exception of weekends (likely an artifact of suspended AP sales and blockouts), the crowd trends at Walt Disney World and Universal fairly closely mirror one another. There’s absolutely no reason to believe Universal’s success has come at the expense of Disney. All of the effort Universal put into attracting guests and everything Disney did to alienate them did not matter in the end. Honestly, not the outcome I was hoping to see.
There are probably ways to explain that away or contend that it’s still too early to make a judgment about the long term impact of the disparate approaches. That due to pent-up demand, people made up for lost time but now that’s done and word of mouth has soured on Disney. Maybe there’s some truth to that, but if so, it hasn’t happened yet–and that’s even despite all of Disney’s controversies outside of what’s happened with changes at the parks.
Looking back even further to the last time Universal Orlando debuted a game-changing addition is also instructive. Back when the Wizarding World of Harry Potter (WWoHP) opened at Islands of Adventure in 2010, the fan dynamic was somewhat similar–but not nearly as pronounced–to what it is now.
I remember living through that era, from when the Harry Potter land was first announced in 2007 until it opened in 2010. Walt Disney World fans at the time were starved for new attractions, as the period between the 9/11 tourism slowdown and the Great Recession had been pretty dark. There were high hopes for a “Potter Swatter,” and radio silence from Disney for almost two years.
Finally, we got the New Fantasyland news. For many fans, that wasn’t enough. It didn’t originally include Seven Dwarfs Mine Train–and instead had a bunch of next generation meet & greets (like Enchanted Tales with Belle, but more of them). It was also slated to open after the Wizarding World of Harry Potter.
Publicly, Walt Disney World’s position was that “a rising tide lifts all boats” — that a stronger Universal was beneficial to Disney because it attracted more people to Central Florida. In actuality, Universal Orlando’s attendance soared by 1.7 million guests the opening year of WWoHP, with Islands of Adventure seeing 30% growth. Three of Walt Disney World’s parks dropped by 1-1.5%, while Animal Kingdom increased by 1%.
The following year (2011), 3 of the 4 parks at Walt Disney World were up by 1% each, while EPCOT was flat. Islands of Adventure once again surged–another 29% increase–but both Universal Orlando parks had lower overall attendance than any Walt Disney World park. In 2012, Walt Disney World’s parks each increased by ~2.2% (New Fantasyland began opening on December 6, 2012–likely too late to have a meaningful impact on that year’s numbers, especially since all 4 parks were up fairly evenly.)
As it turned out, Walt Disney World was correct: Universal had significantly increased its attendance by attracting an entirely new audience to Central Florida, which in turn benefited both (but Universal far, far more). Fast-forward over a decade, and both Universal and Disney have experienced tremendous growth, to the tune of millions of guests per year each. The market for theme parks in Central Florida has gotten larger.
The Wizarding World of Harry Potter was “only” one land back then, but it was a revolutionary one with a massive built-in audience. Epic Universe is an entirely new park, so the scale and scope is different–bigger. Disney has probably concluded that the only way to “win” is to not play the game–to fall back on the “rising tide lifts all boats” mantra.
No new ride or land is going to meaningfully compete with a brand-new theme park. Sitting out this round of the theme park wars and conceding the spotlight for a year might be the best hand that Disney can play. No Disney fan wants to hear this, but might be the smarter move than trying to steal Epic Universe’s thunder. Nothing Disney can do will top Epic Universe. (It also doesn’t help that they have to sort out streaming, ESPN, linear, etc., and reduce their debt load.)
It should also go without saying, but there are multiple different types of guests who attend Central Florida’s theme parks. If you’re reading this, you’re more inclined to be a frequent visitor. There’s a better chance that blockbuster new additions are the most compelling draws, and a brand-new theme park is going to be of more interest to you than ones that are unchanged and you’ve experienced several times before.
That brand-new park would trump just about anything for you, and that includes a new land at Walt Disney World. If your time is limited, you’re still allocating it towards the new park over whatever Walt Disney World would add.
But you’re not the only type of visitor. For most guests, the new additions from a single year or two do not exist in a vacuum and aren’t the only selling points of the theme parks. Most people visiting in 2025 aren’t going solely on the basis of what’s brand-new.
Even for fans who visit semi-frequently, there are a lot of other recent, new-to-them additions. Everything from Hagrid’s and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge to Tiana’s Bayou Adventure will still be “new” to some fans in 2025. That’s a wide range of offerings spanning several years, but not everyone visits annually. Most people–even those who would self-describe as enthusiasts or fans–do not.
Then there’s the biggest demo of all: first-timers. For this group, everything at every theme park in Central Florida is necessarily new. When choosing which parks to visit, they aren’t simply picking the brand-new additions, although those probably are granted more weight thanks to marketing. They’re looking at the full menu, and what looks most appealing.
It shouldn’t be contentious to say that Walt Disney World is the more mature theme park complex (meaning that it’s been built out over the course of 50+ years, not target age groups) and has more to offer as a whole. Even after Epic Universe, Walt Disney World still has one more park, a dozen-plus additional resorts, and more recreation.
And regardless of how you feel about recent movies, it also probably isn’t controversial to contend that the Disney’s stable of characters created and acquired in the last ~100 years is more popular and enduring. (Universal has made tremendous strides with popular character intellectual property in the last couple of decades, though.)
These demos are where things get more interesting in terms of competition for 2025. Both Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando have been aggressively adding in the last several years. Many of Universal’s newest attractions are fantastic–Hagrid’s and VelociCoaster are two of the best roller coasters anywhere. Despite this, Walt Disney World has inarguably spent more money on new attractions and lands. (More debatable is whether that’s all been money well-spent. We’d say it has not, but that’s sort of beside the point.)
Most interesting of all is whether Super Nintendo World (in Epic Universe) will have the same drawing power as Wizarding World of Harry Potter over a decade ago. Much like Harry Potter, Nintendo has a massive fan following. In all likelihood, that will be the big selling point of Epic Universe–and what gets an entirely new audience to Central Florida. (Worth noting that it’s the third version of Super Nintendo World, but Orlando is the theme park capital of the world, so we’d still expect that dynamic.)
It’s undeniable that the bump will disproportionately benefit Universal Orlando. It may be true that a rising tide lifts all boats, but it does not do so equally. Percentage growth for Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios Florida will outpace all four Walt Disney World parks in 2025-2026. If history repeats itself, Disney’s parks could see slight decreases–but the losses will not be commensurate with the growth at Universal.
Stated differently, Super Nintendo World and Epic Universe as a whole will grow the audience for Central Florida theme parks, even if theme park diehards (like you!) visiting Universal and skipping Disney lead to a slight drawdown in attendance.
I wouldn’t even necessarily bet on Walt Disney World seeing a drop in 2025. Super Nintendo World has all-ages appeal (probably a lot like Harry Potter in 2010), from elder millennials who grew up on the SNES to their kids who are getting Switches for Christmas this year–and a ton of people in between.
While its audience is undoubtedly diverse, I would hazard a guess that the land skews towards families. The argument could be made that, as a whole, Walt Disney World does a better job of catering to this crowd than does Universal Orlando. In fairness, Universal has broadened its appeal for families with small children in the last few years–and there’s more to come between now and the opening of Epic Universe (and within that new park, outside of Super Nintendo World).
But the reputation still exists that Universal is the place for teenagers and thrill seekers, and Walt Disney World is more family-friendly. Accordingly, I would hazard a guess that many of the families planning 2025 trips to see Universal’s “new Nintendo park” will also include visits to “Disney World” (Magic Kingdom) and “Star Wars and toy park” (Disney’s Hollywood Studios). Definitely not more than they visit Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios Florida–convenience is huge, as are vacation packages–but possibly enough that at least those two parks (and maybe even EPCOT) don’t lose attendance at all in 2025.
Beyond that, I hesitate to make concrete predictions. We don’t have full insight into demographics or the measures Universal will take to keep people in its parks. (Even the larger version of Super Nintendo World will be small–it seems safe to assume Universal will offer tremendous access advantages to its on-site guests and those who book longer multi-day tickets.)
On that note, on-site guests are where I think things actually are most interesting, even if this is the least “sexy” part of the so-called theme park wars. Nearly 15 years after the Wizarding World of Harry Potter first opened, the theme park landscape has also evolved in Orlando.
Universal has built a half-dozen hotels in the intervening years at a range of price points, and there’s also the difference that 3 theme parks plus a water park makes. For many visitors, Universal will be a destination unto itself, and no longer “just” a diversion from Disney. Universal has been laying the groundwork for this moment for years, overbuilding on hotels, attracting conventions and youth events, and rounding out the slate inside its parks.
While attendance certainly matters, the bigger fear I’d have if I were Walt Disney World management is losing overnight hotel guests to Universal. Those are its most lucrative visitors and highest per guest spenders, and if Universal is able to siphon some away–even just 10%–that’s a huge blow to Disney. With Universal offering more affordable accommodations and on-site perks for a brand new park, that’ll be a given come 2025. And a totally different dynamic from when the Wizarding World first debuted over a decade ago.
Ultimately, we do not believe Universal is “beating” Walt Disney World or vice-versa–and don’t think that’ll change in 2025 even as the former further comes into its own as a bona fide theme park destination resort. There is space in the Central Florida market for both to exist and thrive, and that’s doubly true when expansion is centered around intellectual properties–like Mario, Harry Potter, Star Wars or Marvel–that expand the audience for theme parks, rather than reallocate existing guests and do nothing to grow the market.
Honestly, my dream scenario for Epic Universe is it being fantastic and envelope-pushing, while expanding the audience for theme parks even further and eroding some of Walt Disney World’s market share for hotels. In my view as a long-term Walt Disney World (and theme parks) fan, that’s the best of both worlds.
It puts Disney back on their heels and feeling the need to be more competitive, while also justified in doing so because it demonstrates that there are ways to grow the pie–not just fight over the same sized pie. Finally, it puts downward pressure on resort prices at Walt Disney World and (possibly, hopefully) discourages further construction of those. Our view is that this is also the most likely scenario…minus that part about less hotel/DVC development at Walt Disney World. It should be exciting to watch over the next decade, but one thing is for sure: it’s an exciting time to be a fan of Orlando theme parks!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Universal is “beating” Walt Disney World or that the opening of Epic Universe in 2025 will lead to the “demise” of Disney? Or do you generally agree with the perspective that a rising tide lifts all boats? Think growing the market for Central Florida theme parks is an ‘everyone-wins’ best case scenario? Do you agree or disagree with our assessement? Any other thoughts or commentary to add? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
One huge thing you forgot to mention in regards to convenience and siphoning off hotel guests is Universal getting a stop on the new high speed rail from MCO because Disney threw a tantrum when they didn’t get their way by demanding they be the ONLY stop. Well Disney, maybe you shouldn’t have put all of your eggs in that basket when you axed Minnie Express. In this debate I do believe the political mess they got themselves into played a roll in Brightline and the County not catering to them as Disney is accustomed to. I’ve been in the FDOT grant meetings, no one in gov’t wants to give a dime to help Disney anymore, NO one, it is political suicide. Brightline just wants tax payer’s money to expand, they’re walking that rope tightly.
I have to agree with some other commenters here as well about the reliance of MDE app. It is garbage and a terrible idea. Last night while doing the Olaf hunt a group of elderly visitors asked ME for help, if I had a map cause they didn’t grab one. Of course I helped them find where they were and how to get where they were going, but also another woman in her 30’s overheard and started asking me how to find the santa meet and greets. She had the app up on her phone and didn’t really understand it, even I detest the app to the core as well. I showed her where to find the info on the app and she thanked me. Then she asked me all about the Santas I encountered. I was happy to help but felt I was the least knowledgable person. The reliance on the app is a huge fail for Disney. For every DVC sales booth Disney should also have a MDE app info booth. Where is the magical help? Little one loved the Olaf hunt…he was so excited.
My family and I have been loyal WDW fans since the 1970s. I am absolutely appalled at how Disney treated me and other loyal fans so horribly over the past few years. Disney absolutely wounded my heart and loyalty beyond any repair or recovery. Disney was so willing to screw over my long-term relationship with them for very short gains. Luckily for Disney, I am a DVC member and still enjoy my resort stays. But Disney will NEVER get the thousands of dollars of my money each year that they were getting when they had the brains to treat me nice and show me respect.
« For many visitors, Universal will be a destination unto itself, and no longer “just” a diversion from Disney. «
You said it all here. Years ago my wife and I decided to visit Disney World (after a visit to Disneyland, before that I was a die hard fan of Disneyland Paris but then moved to Canada)
During that trip, we did only 1 day for universal.
Then we returned few months later and did a couple days.
Then Covid hit, when we went back last year, we decided to stay a few nights at universal (split stay, who cared since magical express was retired)
With what we have seen the last few years with Disney and universal, I’m confident that the next trip we make to Florida, we’ll only visit Universal.
Everything was so easy and relaxed, and now with a 3rd gate there will be enough to spend a full week there.
Maybe just maybe we’ll do AK for a day, because that park really feels different. But that will probably be it.
Don’t put me wrong I still love Disney. But Universal now has much to offer and everything seems to be so much easier over there.
For the first time we’ll do Universal only, and probably Disneyland instead a few months later to have our Disney fix.
From my own Perosnal view, knowing that I’m not talking for everyone : Yes Universal is winning over Disney. Most likely it won’t translate with a loss of attendance or $ for the company itself, but in my heart right now Universal is winning.
I sure Hope that Universal will hurt Disney enough in the future that they have to react. But as it stands, Disney world vacations are not relaxing, Universal’s are though.
When you can book a nice hotel (Endless Summer, Universal) that has good amenities for $100/night versus a hotel (say Riverside, Disney), with just as good amenities, for no less approx $300/night, it’s easy to move your loyalty. We stay nine nights and that adds up to a big savings, money than can be used for food, park admissions, etc. Plus, Universal’s transportation system is better and most of their restaurants (which are all very good) ate located in one area, CityWalk. So it’s not really about which is the best, but which is the one that fits your family best.
Disney Magic ended for me when luggage transfer was ended. Everything from then on has just gone down hill.
Oh, I’m with you. I never minded paying a premium to stay at a Disney resort, but that’s because they took care of us from the moment we landed at the airport. There was the Magical Express to get to our resort, and the kids could watch Disney cartoons on there. Our luggage came to our room. Everything was taken care of. To me, getting rid of Disney Magical Express is a powerful, negative change.
My being a Disney-loyal vacationer hasn’t been due to politics or taking sides in an imaginary war, or worshipping a mouse. It’s been my choice of vacation destination, given the limited travel resources I have each year, and where I decide to spend those resources. Like most people/families, we have ONE “big” vacation per year. I do not have annual passes anywhere and do not visit multiple theme parks multiple times per month or even per year. It’s usually just one. Per year. And my vacations are just that – vacations. My visits are not my job. They are rare, and precious. I appreciate much of the information Tom provides here, but I feel he is a bit out of touch with the average visitor. While he can have an “everyman” approach, some of his perspective comes from visiting amusement parks very frequently for a living, and not just as a once-per-year visitor. Visiting so often does provide insights that a casual visitor could not, which I appreciate, but there is a certain loss of perspective that bleeds into the posts at times. Anyway.
Given that my trips are so limited, and I travel from far outside the state of Florida, it is costly for my family. Therefore, Disney has been my go-to vacation, without question.
However, like other disenchanted Disney die-hards, my next trip will also include a visit to Universal for the first time ever. I do not have the same feeling I had for Disney 5 years ago, for sure, and would have never considered spending my scarce vacation dollars anywhere else. But that is no longer the case.
I’m really looking forward to exploring Universal and splitting my time and money between them. If Disney had not been such a disappointment the last couple of visits, I would never have explored something new! So that’s the glass-half-full perspective.
Disney’s super-power has always been that it “won the war” of people’s hearts with the truly exceptional, transformative experience it provided. But those days now seem to be in the past, or at least fading.
Disney vs Universal is not a “dumb” debate, but can be a proxy for how long-time Disney fans are feeling let down by the vacation experience they once held so dear. The fact that my next visit will include Universal for the first time is both exciting and sad for me at the same time.
“Disney vs Universal is not a “dumb” debate, but can be a proxy for how long-time Disney fans are feeling let down by the vacation experience they once held so dear.”
To clarify, I think the grievances you and other fans have with Disney–as discussed in the article–are valid and it’s understandable that so many longtime fans feel taken for granted or outright alienated.
My point was more that the “debate” has, historically, been dumb. It hasn’t been about any particular policies or decisions, but more of a “team sports” view of one versus the other. That’s probably not clear from the introduction, but hopefully it is with the ensuing paragraphs.
I fought visiting Universal (against my wife’s STRONG convincing) for several years in favor of Disney. We’re life-long Disney fans and yearly visitors, but she had the chance to go through work and was sold on it.
While they can’t compete on nostalgia with Disney, the ease of visiting, quality of the attractions, and amenities of the hotels (at significantly lower prices, including Express Pass at Premier/Deluxe results) has been enough to convert me. We changed our usual 7 day Disney trip to a 5 day Universal trip last year, had plenty to do, had a wonderful time, spent way less money, and are doing the same this year. Disney parks have lost our dollars for now.
My hope is that Epic universe is successful enough to not only accelerate new attractions at Disney, but to force them to correct the sub-par visitor experiences that have made vacationing much less enjoyable since about 2019.
“…but to force them to correct the sub-par visitor experiences that have made vacationing much less enjoyable since about 2019.”
I think–and hope–that this is the immediate impact of Epic Universe. A 10% drop in hotel occupancy would be downright catastrophic for Walt Disney World, and quickly force them to rethink a lot of what they’re doing.
Fortunately, unlike building new attractions, there’s a lot that could be done or undone in relatively short order. They just need the motivation, and Epic Universe could provide that.
Our first Uni trip was in 2016, and we really had only one goal: Potter. Everything else was extra. Since that first trip, our motto became “come for Potter, stay for everything else.” We have felt over the last several years that Universal still captures the feeling of Disney World circa 2000s-early 2010s – where you didn’t have to plan to the max and could just show up and know it could be a relaxed visit. Our recent day trips to Disney have just felt stressful and unnecessarily complicated, and they’ve made us yearn for the days of free Fastpass and not being tethered to MDE. I still naively go to Disney thinking it’ll be like what it once was, and I’ve yet to have that same feeling that I get now down the road.
The main reason we don’t go to Universal are the rides are too intense for us. There are some rides that look like we would enjoy them but not enough to spend the money on tickets and take time away from Disney parks. We would love to visit an enjoy more parks like Universal but only if we can enjoy most rides. Screens on rides are a motion sickness problem. The intense roller rides my body can’t do. So we are left with few rides. Maybe Epic will have a better balance and we can visit. Even Universal Hollywood is a hard sell for us. Love the tram movie ride and some shows but most of the rides we have to skip. Therefore, it was a once and done. If Universal wants more families, they really need to have rides and shows for all people. I hope for that. We will be first in line. Until then, it’s only Disney for us.
Anecdotally, the drop in prices for DVC resales is indicative of something not being ‘right’ with Disney’s most loyal fans. In my view, as Tom mentions, this is longtime Disney fans becoming disillusioned for one reason or another. For my family, a trip to Disney simply became too much work to still be considered a vacation (no matter the price). More specifically, 7am wake-up calls for the lottery of Lightning Lanes was a so-called bridge-too-far (especially given Park & dining reservations being effectively ‘required’ well in advance). So the ‘extra days’ we used to spend at Disney had us discovering that Universal offered a far more convenient alternative to Disney, albeit, with less nostalgic theming. Universal was our add-on; after Epic, I anticipate Disney becoming the add-on.
And I believe Tom is (almost always correct, but he’s) being a bit naive vis-a-vis Harry Potter. Universal was just-another-theme park prior to Harry Potter. It’s difficult to image that Epic is going to be more like the original Universal and not the place that now includes crowd pleasing Potter World. Simplicity was the differentiation when Universal first opened, but crowds jumped (and remained) after Harry Potter opened. There is every reason to believe that Epic was designed with this success in mind.
Otherwise, I agree with Tom, competition is good thing for the consumer and we all benefit by immersive Pandora, Star Wars, Harry Potter….and whatever Epic is likely to bring.
“Universal was just-another-theme park prior to Harry Potter.”
Maybe I’m biased by nostalgia, but I STRONGLY disagree with this point. Universal Studios Florida of the 1990s was something truly special. Kongfrontation, JAWS, BTTF, Hitchcock–the list goes on and on–were Walt Disney World caliber attractions. Universal built the foundation of a fandom in that decade.
Islands of Adventure had some good ideas when it opened, but–like Disney–Universal also had a post-9/11 dry spell.
We were lifers – traveling from the Yoop (IYKYK) to WDW twice a year and had no plans to ever quit. Until we did. Our last few (we are slow learners) trips were less than magical. I could list all the grievances but I won’t. It’s heartbreaking but we just don’t WANT to go back. We actually cancelled a week at the GF this fall. We felt the magic was gone.
I can’t speak to Universal bc it’s been too many years but when we go back it Florida it won’t be for Disney. We plan to try Universal in the next year or two.
Yeah, we were lifers too. We actually went there for our honeymoon many years ago (I won’t say how many!) and have been back 11 times since then, coming all the way from Seattle and staying on site every time. Like you, our last trip (in May) convinced us to finally plan future vacations elsewhere. Probably the single biggest turnoff was using Genie +. Not only is it expensive, but it makes you stay on your phone all day and results in a stressful rather than a fun experience. Not sure if we’ll go Universal, but it’s looking better and better. At a minimum, we’ll try it when Epic Universe opens.
In my opinion, they are both becoming indistinguishable in the product they offer. Neither seems interested in original content, but instead on trendy IP-based lands. They are both adding a mix of family and thrill-based attractions. Disney still has a slight edge on the customer service front, but only barely. As of late Universal seems to be operating more nimbly, and is willing to take a bit more risk. However at the end of the day they are both the leading companies in this space because both are very good at what they do, have the money to do it, and no doubt see a lot of employees bouncing across the two organizations. Again, becoming more alike than different as the years go by. Personally I enjoy much of what both companies provide, and I can’t ever see a day where I would exclusively visit one and not the other.
If Universal builds a park in the UK (https://orlandoparkstop.com/news/theme-park-news/universal-studios-great-britain-possible-location-revealed-for-uk-theme-park/) do you think that would have more of an impact on disney than epic universe?
Obviously Disney wouldnt ‘like’ competition if it did get built but there are points saying this is less of a big deal then EPIC Universe. One is that it might be one of Universal’s ‘family parks’ instead of full competition, another is sadly that the UK’s planning laws sadly for us are very restrictive and even if it is approved it might take a decade to build.
Paris does have problems(I let my AP lapse until I go again because of it the 50% increase for less perks being a big factor) but I think it will be OK.The main thing is that Paris is having major investment and the problem areas are improving albeit glacially- the France version of Hollywood Studios may well be a respectable park by end of 2024-early 2025 and after that there are strong rumors of new e ticket attractions and lands to the orginal Paris park which admitadly it really needs. As sort of Paris(its effectively like saying Anahein is LA it really isnt but its in the are) has better generally better weather and Paris is more established so it wont be as big a hit as Florida.
I guess I could ask some friends of mine. The sister, married and with a teenage son, is a big Disney World fan and has worked part time as a WDW trip planner. Her brother and his family are huge Universal fans who wouldn’t go near Disney World. Both families have made multiple trips. I’m surer they could resolve this question.
I know the Covid pandemic messed up attendance in recent years. But, to me, the big question is what has been the attendance in the most recent year for Disney World (4 parks) and Universal’s three parks? Also, what have been the trends (up and/or down) for the two complexes in recent years? Even if Universal has fewer total numbers of visitors, what has their trend been in terms of increasing (or decreasing) numbers? Even if Disney World has more total visitors, what has been their recent growth trends? You cited a few numbers like this, but they were from 12-13 years ago.
I probably should’ve specified, but I only compared 2010-2012 attendance because that would’ve been the WWoHP effect without Walt Disney World’s own expansions added to the mix.
Walt Disney World saw serious gains in 2013-2019, outpacing Universal in some of those years–but not all. It pretty much tracks with when each park opened major new additions.
From 2020-2022, Universal outpaced WDW. But the big asterisk there is that Walt Disney World used park reservations and had limited APs. Universal took the opposite approach.
Here’s the most recent attendance report: https://aecom.com/wp-content/uploads/documents/reports/AECOM-Theme-Index-2022.pdf You can find an index of past years here: https://aecom.com/theme-index/
Thanks so much for the data you provided. It’s much more than I could have hoped for.
Comparing WDW’s 4 parks to Universal’s 2 parks (I mistakenly said 3 in my previous post) might be comparing apples to oranges. But the Magic Kingdom alone had 17,133,000 visitors in 2022. Both of Universal’s parks had 21,815,000 visitors in 2022. WDW has a whole had more than 47 million visitors in 2022. (Of course, the same person could be counted 1,2 3, or 4 times at WDW and twice at Universal in any given trip.) Could Universal’s parks accommodate more than they had? Certainly, the new Universal park will bring in many more visitors when it opens.
Interestingly, comparing 2012 with 2022, WDW attendance actually dropped 1.45 million while Universal increased by 7.64 million (if I added correctly). Of course, a different range might show different changes. But for this 10-year period, Universal has shown more growth on a percentage basis. A year or two from now, things might look different. However, anecdotal evidence points to no growth or a drop in WDW attendance in 2023.
None of this really answers the question of which is the better park complex. That has too many subjectives and variables. On the surface, it appears that Disney World has more issues to deal with. But for the most part, I think it comes down to personal interests and preferences.
As Florida residents for 2+ years, we got impatient waiting for Disney AP’s to go on sale so we upgraded UO tickets to APs after we had a fun few days in their 2 parks.
After our 4th trip to UO over about 6 or 7 months, we were completely bored of the place. I love Velocicoaster & Hagrid’s but much there is a sever drop of in quality after those two rides . Too many screen based rides with seats that move slightly, theming outside of Harry Potter isn’t much better than Six Flags and other regional parks. If you think MK has bad food, you’ve never been to USO. City Walk beats Disney springs on convenience but Disney Springs has way better food and much more variety. AP or Florida Resident discounts on hotels are easier to come by at Disney. Disney’s merchandise is 1000x better than Universal. I can go on…
Epic Adventure will probably be a good park but considering that it has a lot of IP like classic monsters and How To Train Your Dragon, it remains to be seen how good the park will be. We know Nintendo will be good but are they going to the Harry Potter well too many times? Remains to be seen.
I hope Epic Universe is great but judging by much of what they’ve done in the past, I’m a bit skeptical.
IMO, Disney Parks are still a long ways ahead. However, I really, really am cheering for Universal to give Disney serious competition. We win x 2 as fans! I’m a big fan of the ease of Express Passes at Universal w/ their premium resorts.
From a value standpoint, Universal beats Disney hands down. Universal appears to seek new experiences with state of the art ride and projection systems, while Disney relies on the same technology in many cases. I would think the Imagineers come up with some wonderful creations but they do not get the green light. While over at Universal, it looks like every idea is green lit. Construction time is another sore point for Disney fans. Pandemic issues aside, for every new attraction Disney does, Universal pumps out 2-4. Disney renovates an old Park and Universal builds a completely new one. Disney’s water parks are pretty much a joke now after the arrival of Universal’s Volcano Bay. Even how VB handles attraction cues is ahead of the game.
We will have to see what Epic brings, but if it is even half as good as it suggests, then Disney likely needs another park to compete and/or revitalize a whole bunch of items.
Disneyworld now becomes more or less for families with young children and pre-teens and then the adults without children. Universal would attract more of the 12+ year old crowd and beyond.
Competition is good as it should keep both entities on their game.
“From a value standpoint, Universal beats Disney hands down.”
I’d really be careful with this. It’s not like Comcast–of all companies–is doing this out of some sense of generosity.
Universal Orlando very purposefully overbuilt on hotels in anticipation of Epic Universe. Demand for those accommodations has already increased in the last ~2 years–and so too have prices. If Epic Universe performs as anticipated, expect those prices to soar even higher. (I also would be surprised if the current top tier hotels get unlimited Express Pass at Epic Universe. I’m guessing that was a contract deal to get Loews on board a couple decades ago, and it won’t apply to the new additions.)
I don’t dispute that Disney builds too slowly, but that’s immaterial to first-timers.
“Pandemic issues aside, for every new attraction Disney does, Universal pumps out 2-4.”
This is just factually untrue.
Good article, and (per usual) appreciate the nuanced and thoughtful take. I agree that any reports of Disneys demise are greatly exaggerated. The only thing I’ve observed re: families from our extended friend/family group that have gone in the past ~two years is we aren’t hearing a lot/any desire for return trips. That being said, I have no sense of how many families were one and done vs. became repeat visitors following their “one and only”/rite of passage trips before. I think if there is one data point I could get a behind the scenes look at- that would be the one.
Merry Christmas!
“The only thing I’ve observed re: families from our extended friend/family group that have gone in the past ~two years is we aren’t hearing a lot/any desire for return trips.”
Anecdotally, I’ve heard the same–and often enough to fear this is a widespread issue. At the very least, I don’t think Walt Disney World is adding as many new lifelong fans at this point as they were a decade ago, which should be cause for concern in the long-term. (We started mentioning this in late 2021, noting that Chapek had stopped talking about guest satisfaction on earnings calls–because it had plummeted. It has very much been front-of-mind for leaders in Orlando, and Iger/D’Amaro have thankfully started to address it–but haven’t gone far enough IMO.)
I think that’s probably a standalone issue, though. Sure, some of those families are going to become Universal fans instead–but I think the real problem is not that Universal has peeled people away, but that Disney hasn’t managed to retain them.
And Tom, I think you’re right in that the loss of overnight guests in Disney’s biggest risk. I believe the only reason this hasn’t yet happened is the pent up demand from the pandemic. Even long term fans who always stay on site were probably willing to go once more after the pandemic, despite the elimination of almost all on site perks and the disastrous Genie +. I believe a certain percentage of these long term fans who returned one more time after the pandemic will be so turned off by the changes, additional charges, and stress of using Genie that they won’t return, Universal or no Universal. Epic Universe will only accelerate this trend. Disney won’t notice this for another couple of years because repeat guests who stay on site likely return every two or three years. By then, it will be difficult for Disney to compensate fast enough to stop the revenue loss caused by the drop in overnight guests. If Universal is REALLY smart and implements additional advantages for guests staying on site (e.g. a version of the Magical Express, free fast pass-type reservations, etc – can you imagine the positive reaction to that?), they will siphon even more overnight guests from Disney. Yes, Disney is much more established in everyone’s mind as the vacation destination for families, yet it appears that in their arrogance they are assuming loyal guests will simply accept paying more for less indefinitely. And probably a high percentage will. But a certain percentage won’t and will vote with their feet as they walk over to Universal, or to other destinations. Not now and probably not for another two or three years…but eventually and irreversibly.
As usual, great commentary, Tom. We love both Disney and Universal, but it’s probably telling that we haven’t been to a Disney park since 2019 and in that same time span we’ve visited UOR three times (I can’t overstate how much fun Mardi Gras is!). I asked my tween if she wanted us to find a way to get to a Disney park in 2024, and she said she’d rather save our vacation time and dollars for a trip to Epic Universe in 2025. I, like you, hope that Epic Universe encourages Disney to become more competitive in both small and appreciable ways.
“I can’t overstate how much fun Mardi Gras is!”
It really, really is. And underrated! We’ve likened Mardi Gras to EPCOT’s Festival of the Arts, in the sense that both are arguably best-of-class at their respective resorts, but get overlooked for the “bigger” events of the year.
We went to Disney in 2017 and 2019, wanted to go back in 2021, but passed because we were not happy about the operations. Went to Universal this year for the first time and excited about Epic Universe in 2025. The longer time goes and the kids get older, the more the odds increase we’ll go back to Universal again and again before ever going back to Disney.