Winter (Still) Is Not Off-Season at Disney World
Winter is no longer off-season at Walt Disney World, at least not across the board with weeks of wait times on par with August and September. Nevertheless, 2024 attendance has dropped from holiday highs that lasted through the first week of January. This crowd report shares recent data, our on the ground observations, plus surprises we’re seeing so far and how we expect to be wrong.
Since around 2017-2018, winter has (mostly) been a ‘tale of two seasons’ at Walt Disney World. There are peaks and valleys, with really high highs and relatively low lows. Obviously, Christmas and New Year’s Eve are peak weeks–everyone knows that. However, it’s not simply slow after then until Spring Break, and hasn’t been for several years.
Our most recent report pointed out how Colossal Crowds Continue in Early 2024 at Walt Disney World, and explained that this was primarily due to Central Florida school districts being on break coupled with the end of AP blockouts, and not the Walt Disney World Marathon (although that certainly is a contributing factor). Now that we’re a couple of weeks removed from that, we’ve seen the latest trends in crowds emerge…
Another thing worth pointing out is that January and February are not even consistent from year-to-year. Again, this trend has been emerging since 2017, but it became really pronounced in Winter 2020. Those are still some of the worst crowds we’ve seen, probably for a range of reasons including the debut of Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance the previous month. (For a refresher, read Peak Crowds in Winter “Off-Season” at Walt Disney World.) I’ve mentioned it before, but I remain convinced that 2020 would’ve been a blockbuster year for Walt Disney World crowds had the whole “closure” thing not happened.
Then came Winter 2021, which was the exact opposite–the terms ‘dead’ and ‘ghost towns’ would be perfectly apt and only slight hyperbole. Probably a number of explanations for that, but the biggest would undoubtedly be the holiday COVID wave causing a lot of cancellations. After climbing in late 2020, crowds those two months were the lowest they’d been since the month or so after reopening.
Winter 2022 was bonkers. We warned that this would likely be the case in Reopening of International Travel’s Impact on Walt Disney World Crowds. In addition to that, pent-up demand was still heating up, runDisney was back, as were youth sporting events. Plus, plenty of people still had yet to experience Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary, which was only a few months old.
Last year was fairly uneventful, mostly marking a return to the (new) normal of winter crowds at Walt Disney World. Down year-over-year or as compared to 2020, but up considerably as compared to the lows of 2021. Pent-up demand had mostly run its course and weeks that were previously lulls once again reemerged; busier break weeks/long weekends were as crowded as expected. Knowing that it wasn’t opening until Spring Break, perhaps some WDW diehards were waiting for TRON Lightcycle Run; I’m honestly not sure.
All of which is a long-winded preface that brings us to Winter 2024 at Walt Disney World…
As always, what’s covered in these “crowd” reports is actually posted wait time data that’s pulled from My Disney Experience and compiled into graphs for tracking and comparing various days, weeks, months, and years. A lot can be gleaned from posted wait times, but it’s not necessarily conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
There are several other variables that can impact “feels like” crowds, from festivals at EPCOT to weather to guest demographics to ride breakdowns to operational efficiency to time of day or day of the week. (Literally everything on that list would be relevant in January 2024 thus far!) Yada yada yada…that’s just a partial list! Beyond that, wait times are often inflated, inaccurate, or otherwise manipulated by Walt Disney World.
In short, wait times are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s raw attendance or crowds–which have increased by several million people over the course of the last decade-plus. With that out of the way, let’s dig into the data and look at Walt Disney World wait times. As always, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:
We’ll start with a high-level look at the monthly numbers for Walt Disney World as a whole.
This is most interesting if you compare the most recent December and this January to the same months from the prior-year. Notice December 2022 was much busier but that January 2024, thus far, is much busier–almost as bad as last month?! Before drawing any premature conclusions, take a look at the next graph…
If we break this down by week, the differences should be easier to spot. The week between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve was off the charts–slightly busier than the same week year-over-year. The following week that encompasses winter break was still really bad, but not quite as bad as last year. The month averages reflect January not yet being over–it’ll drop further, but probably not a ton–and December also including a few truly slow weeks.
Equally as interesting are the weeks since winter break ended. Crowd levels in January 2024 dropped sharply as school went back into session, which happened more gradually last year. The other difference for this year is that winter crowd levels are already starting to trend upwards. (Don’t give too much weight to that last line above–that “week” is only 1 day old.)
Above is a look at the daily numbers over the course of the last 6 months.
This offers a more granular look at the post-break drop-off, followed by the gradual increase in crowds since. The two higher lines mid-month are the MLK Day holiday weekend, which is also the start of EPCOT’s Festival of the Arts. Although it’s not a truly busy holiday weekend, it is a popular time for Walt Disney World fans from the Midwest and Northeast to take quick getaways to escape the cold.
Also interesting is that the last several days have seen crowds more or less on par with last year’s fall break and much busier than the lulls during November or December. While it’s probably too early to call this a trend (even though we think it probably is), it’s been busier than we’d expect this time of year to be.
We’ll start the park-by-park data with Magic Kingdom, where crowd levels continue to be somewhat of a roller coaster in January 2024. Normally, they’d normalize this time of year after several consecutive months of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party dates. That hasn’t really happened–they’ve been all over the place.
Our best guess is that this is a matter of ride refurbishments & breakdowns, weather, and the changes to park reservations and hopping rules. This was pretty much my experience with Magic Kingdom over the last several days, with lots of downtime (both planned and unplanned) plus weather causing even more unpredictability than normal. We’d still expect a normalization pretty soon.
We also want to (again) draw your attention to something discussed in Walt Disney World Extends Hours in Winter 2024, which is the early closing on January 29, 2024. Once more, we’d highly recommend doing Magic Kingdom on that day and not on January 28.
This same schedule quirk has occurred for the last several years, and if history repeats itself (and it will!), January 28 will see a fairly significant spike whereas January 29 will be one of the 5 slowest days of the year at Magic Kingdom. If at all possible, we’d recommend avoiding January 30 at MK, too. If you want or need a second day in the park, aim for January 26-27 or 31–those are also more favorable from the perspective of park hours.
In any case, light crowds in Magic Kingdom on January 29, 2024 is one of the safest “can’t miss” predictions we can possibly make. Attendance will be low that day, to the point that you won’t need Genie+ (especially if you take advantage of the extra-early Early Entry!). Don’t overthink this, questioning whether “too many” people will follow our advice and thinking it might be busy as a result. It will not be. This prediction is as sure as it gets when it comes to WDW crowds.
Animal Kingdom is coming off its holiday highs, when wait times were absolutely off-the-charts. If crowd levels weren’t capped at 10/10, those dates between Christmas and New Year’s Eve would’ve been like 15/10–they were that much higher than the normal 10/10 range.
Wait times were manageable post-winter break, but there was a spike for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend; still not nearly as bad as Christmas break, though. After a quieter couple of weeks, wait times are trending up again. The last several days have been in the 9/10 range, which is interesting and a bit surprising.
I was in Animal Kingdom for two of those 9/10 days, and they were bad. Not in the typical ways you might expect, such as the Pandora rides registering triple digit waits. They did, but not really all that shocking numbers. More in long waits for other things that often are easier to accomplish, such as the stage shows having actual lines and Lightning Lanes being valuable at them. Same story with Dinosaur and Kilimanjaro Safaris, which had overflow queues spilling far out their attraction entrances along with triple-digit waits.
Then there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. After colossal crowds throughout the holiday season, it’s now averaging moderate crowd levels (in the 4/10 to 6/10 range). Downright delightful by comparison!
It’s doubtful that any first-timers to the park would agree with that assessment. Hollywood Studios is unpleasant when wait times are “only” moderate–it’s downright miserable at 10/10. DHS simply cannot absorb crowds with its current lineup, and “feels like” crowds can be pretty bad once the crowd level is at 6/10 or above.
As someone who has been around the block with awful attendance at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, I was fairly unfazed by recent experiences there. Even with Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster closed and the obligatory breakdowns at other attractions, the park as a whole was not terrible. With that said, “not terrible” is relative to the DHS baseline, which is almost always a varying degree of bad. Early Entry or nighttime remain the easiest ways to “beat” DHS, followed by (or alongside) Lightning Lanes.
Continuing to EPCOT, where crowd levels are officially above-average to hit (6/10 to 8/10).
This is pretty high for winter at EPCOT, but even now, there’s a chasm between crowd levels as represented by ride wait times and crowd levels as represented by congestion or, say, the average length of a line for a Food Studio at Festival of the Arts. I would say 6/10 to 8/10 is about accurate for the former Future World, which is noticeably busy but not bonkers.
World Showcase is arguably much worse. I waited close to 30 minutes for a grilled cheese sandwich and equally as long for some bone marrow. There were a few occasions when I couldn’t even find an open blogger’s buffet bar (also known as a trash can table top) because it was so busy. Wait times for Frozen Ever After and Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure were often “only” around 60-90 minutes (bad but not truly awful), even as the walkways were really congested.
Not exactly a huge surprise there, and owing to the ever-increasing popularity of the EPCOT International Festival of the Arts. As a reminder, nothing at EPCOT’s festivals has a posted wait time, so this congestion is not “picked up” by crowd levels. Meaning that locals showing up, wandering around, grazing the food booths, enjoying art and entertainment, but NOT doing a single attraction contribute to congestion but not to crowd levels.
Paradoxically, these people are probably worse for crowdedness, as they’re pretty much always in walkways and not in standby lines. Call it the “EPCOT Effect” or whatever, but it’s noticeable at this park more than any of the others.
Ultimately, it’s been a moderate winter “off-season” so far at Walt Disney World. When looking at the weekly averages, there aren’t really any major differences from last year–so this could be construed as an uneventful crowd report and yet further evidence that trends are returning to normal. However, I’m reluctant to draw that conclusion for a couple of reasons.
First, because last year’s crowd levels from mid-April through late December were down pretty significantly as compared with the same dates in 2022. The week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve was the biggest exception, which was actually up. That has continued into January 2024, which could be the start of a trend, meaning that Walt Disney World is reversing last year’s slight slowdown.
This is itself noteworthy, as we’ve been anticipating a further exhaustion of pent-up demand over the course of 2024. What if, instead, this marks a rebound for Walt Disney World? That 2023 was the ‘off’ year for families that visit semi-frequently, and they’re returning in 2024. That fears of a recession are diminishing, consumer confidence is improving, and all of this is going to result in a bounce-back year for Walt Disney World. Or that the company is doing what’s necessary to incentivize fans to return, pulling the correct “levers,” etc.
We’re not yet suggesting that any of these things are occurring–yet. What we are conceding is that we previously failed to even account for these possibilities, and instead assumed that the trend line for Walt Disney World crowds would continue downward as revenge travel continued to exhaust itself. That may still be true in the long run of 2024, but we know suspect that it could be wrong.
Crowd levels have started trending upward within January at a time when they’d normally continue dropping or, at minimum, plateau at below-average levels. It’s entirely possible that this is a temporary blip, and that later this week or next a further slowdown will occur. For the reasons above (and more), we’re now skeptical of that; our suspicion is that the next couple months are going to resemble something more like a repeat of Winter 2020.
If so, our current crowd forecasts are going to underestimate attendance and wait times until Mardi Gras and Presidents’ Day. We’ll have more on the ‘why’ of this very soon–I want to see a bit more before making any bold assertions. (I also don’t want to “bury” potential changes to crowd trends at the end of a crowd report where they’re easy to miss.)
For now, I wanted to give those of you visiting Walt Disney World the rest of this month or in February 2024 that it might be worse than you’re expecting. The weather and park hours extensions still make the winter, off-season or not, a great time to visit–so don’t fret too much. Of course, all bets are off once Mardi Gras, Presidents’ Day, and Princess Half Marathon Weekend roll around. (See Avoid Ski Week Crowds at Disney for more.) We aren’t predicting the second half of February 2024 to be the off-season at Walt Disney World, but then again, we never were.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What has your experience been with crowds at Walt Disney World thus far in Winter 2024? Have you been surprised by the “off-season” attendance this month? Have you encountered ‘dead’ days during this time? Do you agree or disagree with our take on the crowds? If you visited WDW during January or February 2018-2020, what was your experience with wait times then? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Was in WDW from February 4th to February 9th, as this was a time frame you recommended. The weather was great, but the crowds were horrendous! My purpose in going at this time was to experience the Festival of the Arts. I could not enjoy it. There were so many people, I couldn’t get near the artists tents, and this was on Monday and Wednesday. Magic Kingdom was crowded on Tuesday, and it was absolutely awful on Thursday with the addition of all the cheerleaders coming in early for their tournament. We did mostly shows, unpopular rides and the train. I am not waiting 60-120 minutes for any ride. Will be crossing this time of year off my list. If I keep crossing off dates, it’ll be time to move on. Crowds are not magical.
Hi Tom! Being in Disneyworld since January 30th and it feels crowded. Wait times have been high all week long. One thing that I’ve noticed is how many VIP guides and their groups I have seen throughout the week. Easily one every 15-20 minutes. Is that usual or is an indirect sign of how some people beat the crowds now?
I had a hunch that the 29th would be a good day for MK and this post confirmed it. Not sure what you’ve heard anecdotally (or if you were there!), but it was a downright pleasant and breezy day. No Genie+ necessary, that’s for sure. We did Peter Pan’s Flight IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. It was a 45 minute posted wait and we were in line for 15. It was my first time in the interactive queue! Glad I got to see it without toiling in it for an hour or more.
We have been in WDW the last 4 days and the crowds have been crazy compared to normal at this time of year. We have been going this week for the last 7 years (minus 2021) and have never seen it anywhere near this bad. Wait times are extremely high, people are everywhere and it just feels crowded. We are still having a blast and doing most of what we want but it definitely takes more effort and using your gut and not going by the posted wait times (I.e. 45 min posted wait for Living with the land but only 15 min actual wait.
I know you meant to say yoda, yoda, yoda….
I’ve been in Parks for the past 4 days, Jan 20 to 23, as an Annual Passholder, coming with my sister and 14 year old nephew. I think the crowds are insane! Ive never seen it so bad outside holidays. Virtual queues were filled in less than 10 seconds for Tron and Guardians of the Galaxy. we made one boarding group of our three tries, but our Group wasn’t to be called until very late in the day and messed up other plans for the day, so we never made the ride.
Typical wait times for the big popular attractions were well over 90 minutes to 2 hours in all parks. we refused to pay extra for lightning lanes after already paying hundreds of dollars for regular tickets. Arriving early didn’t help us much on popular new rides due to early entry policies for Disney hotel guests, although we did rope drop and walked on Star Tours.. i think people forget that the older ride is outside of the Star Wars land.
mostly we grit our teeth to get through each day, and the 14 year old, who we thought would have appreciated Star Wars rides, thought the whole concept of waiting more than 15 minutes for a 30 second ride was ludicrous and “for old people.” He managed to enjoy Epcot and liked the old-school movies like Wonders of China better than most rides.
It’s also very frustrating that most of the parks have very few places to sit and rest. Epcot is a bit better than the others, but short on seating for eating at food stations. most parks have extremely few benches, or quieter places for families to wait for other family members in ride lines. I saw more than a few very small children crawling in dirt in Star Wars land, parents had no alternative seating or play places for young kids to wait out sibling riders. I did 15,000 to 20,000 steps each day with a back injury and really noticed the shortage of places to just “chill” or meet up for a few minutes.
I’m DONE with Disney after this experience, there’s nothing “Magical” about waiting in lines seeing everyone just scrolling on their phones for hours and hours and hours… Our 14 year old’s verdict: “Universal was wayyyy better.” Although they may be having the same issues this year!
I was there just there this pas weekend & the crowds were insane! Mon at AK there were even crowds in the tree of life trails, I never see that! I will say though, I just happened to be passing Pop Eats Sun night around 8 pm & there was NO Line! I wasn’t even hungry but after seeing the crazy lines previously all day, I had to take advantage of the no wait & get a grilled cheese & soup. So I agree the crowds shouldn’t deter people from going as there can be magical unplanned moments that occur, not only did I get a get a small break in the crowds, I got to meet my all time favorite go to Disney expert! That was me harassing you on the bus, it was such a pleasure meeting you & speaking with you! Thank you for all the hard work & great info you provide!
I’m here now for the week and am amazed at how busy it’s been. Seems like a lot more international Spanish speaking guests than I usually see. Wondering if there is a specific break in one of those countries.
It’s the peak of summer in South America currently so many are on break.
I noticed this too. We’ve been here for two days now and the crowds are quite heavy. If planning a trip in the future, checking when Brazillians like to vacation is as important as when U.S. schools are on break.
Yikes. I was really looking forward to our trip next week. Now I’m nervous.
I wouldn’t be nervous. It’s still a great time of year to visit and you can still accomplish a ton with Genie+ or arriving early and leaving late. It was definitely a late-arriving and early-departing crowd.
Kate, we went the first full week of Feb back in 2020, during the stretch that prompted Tom’s first “Winter is Not the Off Season” post, and we had an amazing time. Like Tom said, the weather was wonderful and with a smart touring strategy we managed to do everything we wanted, including multiple rerides. I think the longest line we waited on was 80 minutes for Smuggler’s Run (since Rise was still VQ only at that point). The only thing I would have done differently was to have done EPCOT on a weekday, the Saturday crowds at Festival of the Arts were the one time I thought “this is too many people.” That said, the festival itself is awesome.
Have a great trip!
We just left magic kingdom on January 29th. The park closed at 4:30 and thanks to Tom’s advice we seriously had the best day ever. Didn’t buy genie plus. Bought a lightening lane for mine train and rode everything else we wanted and never waited more than 30 minutes. My 10 year old and I rode Big Thunder 4 times before noon. Now we’re back at the resort at the pool by 3. Thanks so much, Tom. If I hadn’t read your blog I never would’ve known to go today. It was one for the memory books.
We were in Epcot this past Saturday and it was truly one of the busiest times I’ve ever seen the park. We were in the park pretty early and it seemed nice but once noon hit and we started making our way to World Showcase it was just a sea of people from Mexico around to Canada. I waited for nearly 30 minutes at the bar outside of Regal Eagle for a drink! I still tried to make the best of the park day but as far as enjoying the festival itself it was nearly impossible. Now for every future visit my friends and I are swearing off Epcot on the weekends.
I had never seen anything like that line for Regal Eagle’s bar! Was there a limited edition popcorn bucket they were serving that I didn’t know about?!?!
Hi Disney enthusiasts!
We were at the parks Jan. 7- 12. Sun thru Fri.
1st 2 days had to specify a particular park, then rest of the week, we didn’t need to. We’ve gone many times this time of year & not only did the weather not co-operate, we felt crowds were crazy busy! Pretty disappointed & feel the company has lost its way, regarding prices! We’ve been going by ourselves, with kids, & grandkids for over 30 years. True Disney freaks! Have a Disney tree, pins, snow globes, apparel, & more..but maybe the last time. pay to park, pay to ride, pay extra for special rides!!
We were at the parks Jan 13 to 19 and I was quite surprised at the crowds! The 13 to 16 was pretty tolerable, but MK on the 17th and 19th were CRAZY!! I have always seen people say the rain clears out crowds. Not those 2 days! Lol! We still had a great time, but I really was not expecting the crowds we saw braving the cold and the rain!
We’re coming in for the Princess half marathon, but not hitting the parks heavily until Feb 26-March 2. Do you still think that week will be a “lull” between President’s week and spring break season?
In the same boat, we’re going Feb 29 to March 4. Hoping for the best but preparing for crowds.
If we go to disney on 15 dec 24 through to 28 dec which two days would it be best to do universal on basis you have a fast pass for universal.
If you have unlimited Express Pass, my advice would be for going on the two busiest days (presuming the alternative is Disney on those days). That would be the final few days of your trip.
We’re arriving on Presidents’ Day and staying that week-what are your thoughts on crowds that week? A bit nervous after this article…
Here’s a brief explanation: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/best-worst-weeks-disney-world-crowd-calendar/
Here’s a longer one: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/ski-week-winter-break-crowds-disney-world-disneyland/
We’re planning an early February 2025 trip, largely based on likely lower crowds. I will be watching with great interest to see what happens over the next few weeks. The weather was also a factor though so at least we should still be good there!
Not that you asked, but my advice would be to go regardless of this year’s crowd levels. Early February is a great time to visit even if crowds are 20% (or whatever) worse.
That is, unless you can move the trip to mid-November or early December, which is an even better time and benefits from similar weather, plus Christmas.
Oh, we will be going anyway – it’s for our wedding and we’ve already sent our save the dates! Hopefully even if crowds are higher than previous February levels, it will still be a manageable level for us.
I’m really stressing over our Mardi Gras week, upcoming visit! I’m not a fan of Genie+, but am starting to think it will be a MUST purchase, if we want to attempt to ride much We will definitely utilize Early Entry, but that can only help so much (being 30 minutes). Wish us luck!
Interesting read- we will be at parks in a few weeks so IM hopeful for somewhat lower crowds. I did notice a few hours being extended which was nice.
Off topic- I was unable to prebuy genie plus- is that new this year? Normally we booked with the resort stay but now it says u buy the day of?
Another great win by your Lions. I’ll root for them until/if they are up against the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
“I couldn’t even find an open blogger’s buffet bar”…one of my surreal memories from our family trip during December of the covid era was how blissfully uncrowded world showcase was. Only time I think we ever got to hang out at one of those little table tops.