Summer Is Not Peak Season at Disney World.
Summer crowds have been low at Walt Disney World the last few years, which bucks conventional wisdom that it’s peak tourist season in Florida. Summer 2020 is likely to be the least-busy stretch of the year at WDW, even though Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge is now open and both Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure and Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway will be open by then. (Updated February 14, 2020.)
The first time we experienced these low summer crowds, we assumed it was an anomaly. Wait time trends suggested otherwise. Even then, we assumed it was a one-off for that summer. However, the last couple of years have demonstrated that low to moderate crowds from late May through September are not a one-off or anomaly: it’s the new normal in terms of Walt Disney World crowds.
This is good news for those of you planning summer trips to Walt Disney World, as you should expect noticeably lighter crowds than what you would’ve experienced 4 years ago. It’s bad news for literally anyone else, as the decrease in summer attendance does not exist in a vacuum–it’s a redistribution of summer crowds to other months of the year. For proof of this, look no further than our new Peak Crowds in Winter 2020 “Off-Season” at Walt Disney World post…
As we discuss in our 2020 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar: When to Go & Avoid post, we are not expecting this to change in Summer 2020. This is despite Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure debuting in the France pavilion at Epcot this summer, and even though Star Wars: Rise fo the Resistance is still new.
The reality is that the excitement and hype over these new things is not enough to overcome the undesirability of a summer visit due to pricing and weather, and other factors we’ll discuss below…
The first reason for lower crowds during the summer is pricing. For both tickets and hotel rooms, summer pricing tends to be the highest of the year. To be sure, there are brief windows that see room rates and ticket prices spike higher, particularly around holidays and spring break. However, no other multi-month period has the same sustained level of higher prices as you’ll find in June and July.
While the average visitor to Walt Disney World does not do much planning, most do look at pricing to determine whether a visit fits in their budget. When they do, they are met with a price calendar on DisneyWorld.com showing significantly higher prices for the summer months:
For some people, it does not matter. Summer is the most convenient time for them to visit due to school breaks, so that’s when they go. This is the rationale for summer season being peak season in the first place. For decades, summer has been peak season in just about every tourist destination, including Walt Disney World, for that very reason.
For many visitors, the elevated prices in June and July are significant. Between hotels and park tickets, the surcharge for a summer vacation could be over $1,000 for a family of 5, and that’s enough to justify postponing a visit for many people. Even a 1-day summer visit could cost an extra $100 or so for a family.
If you’re a Florida resident, or even living within driving distance in the South, it’s pretty easy to delay your visit until the late summer or on a weekend during the fall if price is an issue. Even if you don’t live in the South, you may be considering an impulse-visit to Disney’s Hollywood Studios to experience Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance on an already-planned vacation to Florida.
That is, until you see the premium pricing. At which point, you might decide to wait until off-season, when prices are better. For as long as we can remember, this has been the case with rack rates on hotel rooms. However, seasonal ticket pricing is a relatively recent addition, rolling out for 1-day tickets only a few years ago, and for multi-day tickets last year. Redistribution of crowds was part of the intent of the pricing scheme, but I’d contend this is an overcorrection.
Although they represent a much smaller piece of the pie, Annual Passholder trends also could explain some of the shift in summer crowds at Walt Disney World. As Annual Passes have rapidly escalated in price, no doubt some people have dropped them entirely.
Others might instead move to a lower tier, particularly the Weekday Select and Silver passes, both of which are blocked out for almost the entire months of June and July. These blockouts coupled with the lack of festivals largely explains why Epcot feels like a ghost town in the summer.
Another thing that would cause guests to stay home, Floridians in particular, is the weather. It’s no news that summer is unbearably hot and humid in Central Florida.
However, the last couple summers have been especially brutal, and as more people avail themselves of online planning resources, tourists become more cognizant of just how hot and humid summers are in Florida.
Things were pretty bad last summer. Florida’s numbers haven’t been as bad as the heat wave in the Southwest, but the Orlando area saw highs consistently in the 90s, with “feels like” temperatures above 100º. In that kind of heat, you can bet that some Annual Passholders opt to skip their weekend day trip.
Stretches of poor weather are not something that impact tourism numbers, as tourists cannot really plan for it. They know the summer is hot and it rains during storm season, but not when a heat wave is going to occur. However, it’s a safe assumption that those tourists who are on vacation during a heat wave are spending more time at the hotel pool and less time in the parks.
Another explanation is that international visitation is down, particularly from Europe and the United Kingdom, and these foreign visitors would be most likely to come during the summer months. (Meanwhile, tourism from South America has actually rebounded in the last couple of years–but they’re visiting disproportionately in the winter months, which is summer in Brazil, Argentina, etc.)
Despite Florida greeting a record number visitors last year, which have been increasing by about 3-5% every year for the last several years, the number of international tourists has been dropping for the last few years. Two years ago, just under 11 million international tourists visited Florida, which was a 1% drop. This follows two consecutive years of 2% drops. (We don’t have final numbers for last year, but tentative results show overseas tourism to Florida is down another ~3%.)
More schools shifting to year-round calendars with longer breaks throughout the year is another explanation, but this is not a sudden occurrence that began in the last few years. School calendars have been trending this way for a decade or more.
Then there’s the common explanation cited by commenters on this blog whenever attendance gets busier: we “let the secret out!” and “everyone started going during ____ week because of you!” Except in this case, less people are attending, and the “secret” would be that it’s unbearably hot and humid during the summer in Florida (shhh…don’t tell anyone).
While there are a lot of Disney blogs (not just this one) offering trip planning advice that likely includes recommendations as to when to visit, the vast majority of Walt Disney World visitors either do not or cannot follow this advice. It’d sure be neat if everyone followed our advice, but the practical reality is that most visitors to Walt Disney World do very little research and do not have the time to pore over Disney blogs for hours. On the plus side, a lack of critical mass is why a lot of tips you’ll find on Disney blogs work in the first place.
There are likely other variables I’m overlooking that could help explain why summer attendance has been down the last two years. Epcot’s growing ‘festival seasons’ have probably drawn guests to every month of the year except June through August. Gas prices might play a role. However, my bet is that the noticeable decrease is caused by the confluence of higher seasonal pricing, decline in international tourism, and pre-Star Wars slump. Other factors might be at play, and in aggregate may have a noticeable impact, but I think those variables would be something visitors wouldn’t notice if it weren’t for the changes in ticket pricing, international visitation trends, and the weather.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our assessment as to why summer crowds at Walt Disney World have been noticeably below-average the last two years? Or, do you disagree entirely, and think it’s been as busy–or busier–than normal? Any observations about attendance trends during the fall months that follow this summer dip? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
Tho the heat is a factor,the money is the draw back. I have been wanting to take my nephew who has never been. I am a Floridian and the resident deals really don’t exist during the summer. There is the 3/4 day deal in the begging of the year but I would have to take him in the summer due to school. I want to go for a week but it is just not possible. The value resorts are about $200.00 a night. It’s harsh to spend that when your only there really to shower and sleep.Then of course there is the 2 summer seasons for the hotel. If you fall on the 2nd half of the summer it goes up even more. Then there is the extra expense to stay later in the parks. Then they are talking about the star wars land might be an extra ticket as well. I know Disney wants to make the big dollars but the economy isn’t set up for that. For my nephew and I to go just for 3 nights 4/ days would cost $1,200. not including transportation or food. I have been on cruises for a week that don’t cost me that much and I see 3 different countries. Maybe Disney has to look at the big picture before those crowds get even lower. I have loved Disney since I was a kid but every year it just gets more and more expensive and I get it that things go up in price but where does it end….Just a thought.
LOLing at the amount of reading fail in this one. I’d go point by point, but honestly wouldn’t be worth it.
Why would you feel the need to do so, or even to make this comment? Perhaps you’ve had access to stellar educational opportunities, but now it’s time to focus on other skills, “skippy,” such as empathy and kindness.
My wife and I were at EPCOT 2 weeks ago. Although it was not a ghost town or anything, it was CONSIDERABLY less crowded. We saw the same people several times, were able to visit at a leisurely pace, and (the kicker) picked up a second FP fo SOARIN. I know the 3rd theater blah blah but it was the overall reduced crowds that made it happen.
I think it’s a combination of reasons, many of which you covered. Almost everything–from pricing to deals to information–direct people to visit Disney World during any other time but summer. Yes, the tiered pricing gently guides some people away from visiting certain weeks, but so do discounts. Disney offers their most popular deals (like free dining) on weeks with low attendance. We’ve seen free dining shift from primarily September and October months to virtually no dates in October at all.
Some people will always travel on their own schedule. Others are flexible and will choose to book their trip when the deals are available. That’s what we do when we book our trips! Even now, for our next trip, we’re keep an eye out for Play, Stay, Dine dates to see if we can go over spring break (ours is early). If we can’t get that deal, we’ll probably wait to go over summer so we can stay longer, but we’d wait to book that to see when free dining will start in August. If that doesn’t work, we’ll choose dates based on room discount availability. Disney discounts basically prompt people like me to book during slow(er) weeks. We’ll go where the deals are.
I think still others actually are dissuaded from traveling during summer because of information online. If you’re looking for what’s changed in the past 3 years, it’s the availability of information. Even people who don’t do much research at all can pull up a page about when to go to Disney World, and it will basically say, “Any time but summer. It’s hot, and it’s crowded.” Sure, most people aren’t making detailed vacation plans and reading about strategies to make the most of their trip to Disney, but I’d bet you a LOT of people who want to go to Disney do a simple Google search: When is the best time to go to Disney World?
“Disney offers their most popular deals (like free dining) on weeks with low attendance.”
While I agree with almost everything you’ve written, I want to clarify this. Disney offers their most popular deals during weeks with low hotel occupancy, not attendance.
I know that it might seem like one follows the other, but there are times when there are variances between the two, particularly times when locals (not in need of hotels) are visiting in greater numbers.
For me with no kids living in the Houston area – we go on vacation to escape the weather especially the humidity. Going to Florida in the Summer doesn’t accomplish that goal…more like trading one environment for the same. Not gonna do it…
Living in Houston, I completely agree with you. I have even said I would turn down a free trip to Disney if it was in July or August. That may be a bit of an exaggeration, but I would definitely give it a lot of thought before accepting. I have no desire to go on vacation and deal with the same weather I have to live with at home.
If you cannot follow Wheaton’s Law, please do not participate in the conversation.
There’s a line between politics informing a conversation and using your/their political beliefs to personally attack others. It’s not even a fine line.
I know this is not for the majority but I can speak to why we no longer go in June. We we’re there in June 2016 and it got so hot we found ourself not being able to do more than a few hours at a time in the parks and it made it just not worth it for us. May-September in Chicago which is our home base is beautiful, we were finding it hard to leave the beautiful weather here (which is very short lived) and fly to somewhere where the weather was not enjoyable in the least no matter how much we love the parks/resorts. We now try to go every other year for food and wine and every year in February(ish) to escape the awful weather here and enjoy everything Florida has to offer at that time. We’ve also sadly ditched annual passes after having for years we would typically go 3 times each yeah with those now we’re at around 2 times a year.
Given that a lot of Walt Disney World visitors come from the Midwest or Northeast, I think this is a good point/recommendation. Growing up, my family always used vacationing in Florida as an excuse to escape our Michigan winters. Would’ve made far less sense to visit when it was actually nice in Michigan and not-so-nice in Florida! 🙂
I just returned from WDW this past Friday. For the most part, wait times were not bad. In some cases Fast Pass times were almost the same as regular times. Visiting from desert Nevada with almost non-existent humidity, the weather in Orlando was almost unbearable. This would not be the case for most of the US. Summer would be a good time to visit as long as you’re prepared for the heat and rain.
Even more pronounced in this regard is Tokyo Disney Resort. I’m there now, and it’s very empty – e.g. 30 minute waits for Monsters etc. I only chose to visit at this time because I was interested in seeing Tanabata Days; admittedly Japan doesn’t have quite the same dynamics, but it’s definitely very empty.
The crazy thing: it only gets slower in July. I was there during July a couple of years ago, and it was dead during the week!
But you’re right, Japan doesn’t have the same dynamics.
For us, it has everything to do with money and time. We use to fly Southwest when they were a low cost carrier….$200 roundtrip for 2 adults. Just checked their website…$983.00. American about the same. Then we flew Airtran $150-200. Southwest bought Airtran…poof on the low price. Wouldn’t consider Spirit. Package prices at Disneyworld keep going up. And it adds up. 3 yrs ago in december….5 days, 2 adults, moderate hotel, no dining plan….$2000. Checked it recently….$2900.00. Also i think Fastpass is a joke. When they 1st started, they were great & made a difference in the day. Also, extra magic hours have decreased so much. When all of the new areas open, we’ll probably drive & cram it all into 3 days.
I agree, we’ve gone a few years in July because I work as a school counselor, so I have no other choices really and generally the crowds aren’t terrible (knock on wood that stays true this year), but the heat is a major drawback. We just plan multiple small meals indoors in the A/C to break it up mostly.
Thanks to Brexit, our WDW package we had in 2016 (booked in 2015, 14 months before Brexit) is over 40% more expensive. This will definitely have an effect on Uk visitors to WDW. Flights are roughly the same price, and Universal and offsite prices don’t seeem as badly hit, so UK tourists might still visit, but not stay in Disney resorts.
You didn’t mention school fall breaks as a factor. There are a lot more US school systems offering a significant number of days off for “fall break” just in the last few years. I know it’s new for our school district. A lot of families have shifted their yearly Disney visit to fall from summer because they can avoid missing school and have better weather.
I mentioned it in the article, I just downplayed it. It’s quite possible that I downplayed it too much.
In researching this article, I found several articles about dramatic growth in year round schooling in the early 2000s, but nothing more recently. Perhaps my research about fall breaks was not sufficiently thorough?
We are a Canadian family and my husband and I both teach so we are bound to the school calendar for our vacations. Since we drive to save money, August was the best option for us (as opposed to Christmas or March break, neither of which permit enough time to drive and have bigger crowds). It was punch-you-in-the-face hot, but we hardly waited in line anywhere. The dollar is the biggest impediment to going back. Disney recently had a ticket discount for Canadians which brought the cost down to at-par with the USD, but we couldn’t take advantage of it.
I would not be surprised to find that people do see crowd calendars. They take kids out of school because it cost so much to go. The times they pick are the “lowest times”. Which ironically makes those times more crowded. This is what I hear from the families I have ask.
We go 2nd or 3rd week in September each year to Disney world. The past three years this time has really become more crowded.
We may never know how the crowd calendars are driving this result.
Thank you for keeping the blog going. I find it very helpful.
I was hoping someone could give me insight as to the crowd level day before, day of and day after thanksgiving day. It will be only time we can go this year. And I really didn’t want to fight a lot of crowds. Any idea as to how busy it really is during that time??
Thank you greatly
Yeah…that’s going to be busy.
I have a question…since the beginning of this post mostly concerned the 1-day ticket price, do you expect to see a shift in the discount times on resorts/dining plan? I come from the Netherlands and have no choice but to visit in the Summer because we get fined heavily if the kids are not in school when it’s in session. So Summer is the only time we can come as a family. But usually deals on resorts and dining are only for non-peak season, meant to draw in people when the parks wouldn’t normally be busy. Most people getting 1 day tickets probably aren’t staying in a resort. So will the resorts still experience the lull after Summer is over? Will deals change accordingly?
I believe we have already seen shifts in both resorts and dining. It seems Disney is always adjusting based on the numbers. I suspect it has more to do with resort occupancy than park attendance. There is no loss when the pars are super crowded, but if the resorts aren’t full, either because of pricing or locals being the main park visitors, then Disney isn’t making as much. Especially if you consider that resorts are filled with people on vacation, who are more inclined to spend impulse money than locals. I know as an AP holder most of our money spent in the parks is planned. Think food.
If my theory is correct, resort bookings would not be down as much as attendance over the summer (for the reason you point out: most people buying 1-day tickets are not staying on-site). Since resort discounts and Free Dining are offered to increase the occupancy rate, those still are not “necessary” during the summer months, even when attendance is low.
The change I’d expect, if any, is a closing of the gap between the dynamic ticket prices. It’s possible that even that won’t occur, though.
Interesting, looking at the price differences. I honestly hadn’t noticed as we usually have to save up for a trip anyway. We usually planned for late spring or early fall instead of summer simply because we expected the crowds to be lower at that point but most everything to be open and most of the summer stuff was still going.
We went for two weeks last year over the July 4th holiday and were amazingly surprised that the crowds weren’t as bad as all the crowd calendars predicted. The weather wasn’t all that bad either. We stayed on-site at Universal the first 4 days of our trip and the crowds there were nuts, and the weather had been very hot which improved when we transferred to WDW. The wife and I (no kid this time) are going to WDW the first week of August and are excited to hear that crowds might be down. It was a last minute decision because Coronado prices were fairly low compared to what we spent on Port Orleans last year. We’re from Oregon and considered hitting DL/DCA, but for some reason most of the hotels in the Anaheim area were all booked up (even at $300+/night rooms), turned out to be cheaper to fly to WDW and stay on-site.
One thing to keep in mind with Anaheim hotels is that they can spike at seemingly random times when there are events at the Anaheim Convention Center. Summer actually has been pretty mild out here in terms of crowds, too.
Unfortunately, the hotel room shortage coupled with most summer guests to Disneyland being tourists means higher hotel prices (even without a convention) for summer regardless of crowds.
I recently received an e-mail from Grand Legacy at the Park for 40% off during September when you prepay. When I looked it up there were still plenty of rooms available. I also live in Oregon and love to visit Disneyland/DCA, so I’m always looking for good deals for hotels and flights. We use JetBlue and often times find tickets for $68 one way. Just thought you might like to know for future planning. Hope you enjoy your Disney World Trip just the two of you! My husband and I have gone to DL for our anniversary the last 3 years without the kids and we get so much more done I do hope we can take them to Disney World one day ☺ï¸
I am a Floridian with a Disney annual pass, and although I love visiting there, I do mostly avoid the parks from June-August because of the heat. I went to Universal yesterday and the heat was so bad we had to be very careful not to get sick (which did happen a bit). If you do come and you are not used to the heat (or even if you are), pack the sunscreen and cold towels, drink lots of water, limit the sugary drinks and pay attention to the signs of heat illness.
Well, you can bet it’s not decreasing crowds but instead people realizing that standing in line for 2 hours in brutal Florida weather mixed with strong storms is no fun. We went last October and the crowds were insane: like 2-3.5 hour waits. People are using crowd calendar sites in attempt to go during less crowded times balancing it out.