Now or Normal? Disney World in 2021 v. 2022
When to visit Walt Disney World is a common question, but lately that question has shifted from top weeks to best years for a WDW vacation. Now, it’s whether to go in Summer 2021 or this fall for the start of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary, or wait until 2022 when things are back to normal? (Updated June 8, 2021.)
Ironically, we first started covering this question ~5 years ago when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge was announced and Disney’s Hollywood Studios became a veritable construction zone. That, Toy Story Land, and other expansion finished, but a similarly large-scale project began at EPCOT, thus extending the question.
Then last year happened. The closure and subsequent reopening of Walt Disney World with divisive health safety protocol. A dramatically reduced slate of shows, nighttime spectaculars, other entertainment, reduced restaurant lineup, scaled back menus, and suspensions of FastPass+ and the Disney Dining Plan–offerings many Walt Disney World fans have come to love. In so doing, the question about waiting to visit Walt Disney World shifted from a construction-centered one to a ‘temporary abnormal’ focused one…
First, I’ll share personal “philosophy.” I’m vehemently opposed to postponing anything for something theoretically better down the road. Don’t let the romanticized notion of the perfect be the enemy of the good. Never do tomorrow what you can do today. And so on. For many of you, waiting is not much of an option anyway, as kids grow up quickly, and taking them to Walt Disney World sooner rather than later is the best course of action.
I’ve shared this sentiment in previous incarnations of these should you wait or visit now? posts. However, it should ring particularly true now after our collective experiences of the last year. Walt Disney World fans who were waiting for the “perfect” time last year after Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway, and Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure would still be waiting in 2021…and possibly beyond.
There’s always something new on the horizon, or a reason/excuse to postpone a vacation. That was true in prior years, and is doubly true right now as potential Walt Disney World guests debate whether to wait for a mix of new stuff to open, things to return, and health safety rules to be relaxed.
This is not to say you should settle for a compromised Walt Disney World experience, especially one that is the normal price. (In fact, it’s much more expensive to visit Walt Disney World in Summer 2021 than it was pre-closure.) Nevertheless, I personally would not wait indefinitely on the “perfect vacation” because that’s an illusion that will always be out of reach. There’s a healthy middle ground. Maybe that entails visiting Walt Disney World this summer, holding off until fall, or maybe it means taking a year break and visiting again in 2022. That’s what we’re here to help you decide.
Enough waxing poetic, let’s get down to the brass tacks of identifying the best & worst times to visit. For those who are delaying trips right now, there are broadly two categories of reasons why: additions and omissions. Things that exist right now that you do not want, and things absent that you do want.
Let’s start with the unwanted additions. Due to face masks now being optional in outdoor common areas and Walt Disney World relaxing physical distancing, the “unwanted additions” at this point are pretty much just indoor face mask rules and the need to make Disney Park Pass reservations.
Depending upon your perspective, both of these things can be a huge hassle. Both also might be positives. If you have kids, indoor masks might provide comfort and reassurance. If you’re concerned about overwhelming crowds and already have your Disney Park Pass reservations, you probably also don’t mind that system too much. It might actually be advantageous to you.
Face mask rules are the most talked-about and contentious aspect of the health protocol, but the bigger impact on the guest experience is the cuts. There’s virtually no atmospheric entertainment in the parks, with World Showcase in particular feeling uninhabited and lifeless.
Shows like Finding Nemo the Musical and Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular are on hiatus. All nighttime spectaculars and parades have been suspended. Halloween and Christmas Parties, Candlelight Processional, and more were cancelled last holiday season and might be this year. And so on. Festival of the Lion King has now returned, and nighttime spectaculars are rumored to be returning in July 2021. Our expectation is that other entertainment will also return next month.
It’s actually disappointing that Walt Disney World hasn’t announced more returning for Summer 2021. “Revenge Travel” at Walt Disney World started to play out several months ago with spring break. Things haven’t slowed down since, and June 2021 has been really busy thus far.
And that’s all with attendance capped and more Park Pass reservations not being released. Things would’ve been even busier if Disney reopened more and scaled up capacity faster. Florida has seen a huge surge in flights, hotel occupancy, rental car bookings, and more. For its part, Walt Disney world has done well–but isn’t as big of a winner as other destinations.
Back when the parks reopened last summer, we questioned Is Walt Disney World Still “Magical” Right Now? Ultimately, our answer was “it depends” based on individual expectations, how badly you “need” to unwind with a vacation, and other personal circumstances.
Much of that assessment remains accurate. In particular, how badly you might need an escape from the real world after enduring a tough year. This is the case for many Americans right now, which explains why travel is booming in Summer 2021. For many people, a vacation is long overdue, and no further analysis is necessary. A summer vacation to Walt Disney World it is!
With that said, we’d be remiss if we didn’t point out that a lot of the upsides discussed in that “Is Walt Disney World Still ‘Magical’ Right Now?” article no longer exist. The biggest one is crowds. While last summer was a veritable ghost town after Walt Disney World reopened, the opposite is now true. It’s very busy–and there’s still no FastPass.
Another is discounts. Or rather, lack thereof. There were some attractive deals last year after the parks reopened. This year, discounts are scarce, and prices are high. (With that said, it’s worth noting that the cost of travel has spiked nationwide due to the pent-up demand.)
Additionally, dining remains difficult. The restaurant lineup and menus have scaled back since last summer, but the difference now is that reservations are incredibly difficult to score. Mobile Order for counter service restaurants can also take longer than normal, and there are fewer places to sit.
Similar smaller-scale problems exist throughout Walt Disney World. These are related to reduced capacity/efficiency and staffing shortages. You’ll notice this at hotel pools and transportation, among other things.
By most reasonable and objective measures, Summer 2021 is a bad time to visit Walt Disney World. It’s a time of transition, with many of the downsides of visiting over the course of the last year but none of the upsides, or totally normal operations.
Basically, visiting Walt Disney World in Summer 2021 entails accepting a compromised guest experience while paying higher prices. There isn’t a ton of upside beyond getting to visit right now rather than having to further delay. Again, that is more than enough for many Americans who put their lives on hold and postponed travel for over a year.
At this point, the earliest many of these cuts and compromises will be restored or eliminated is October 1, 2021. Walt Disney World already announced that Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure won’t open until that date. Other additions previously announced as “opening in time for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary” but now are delayed indefinitely–likely until Summer 2022 at the earliest. It’s probable that Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure and Harmonious are the only big new additions of 2021.
Timelines for that plus what has debuted recently are covered in What’s New & What’s Next at Walt Disney World in 2021 & 2022. Some of this is nothing new–our separate Should You Skip EPCOT? post discusses visiting that park during this state of transition, which was always going to run through the 50th Anniversary. Now it’s just likely to continue into 2023 instead of 2022. Nevertheless, construction certainly still factors into the decision of whether to wait or not.
Rather than posing a question in the post title and not answering it, here are five very specific times when you should visit: late September 2021, mid-October 2021, early December 2021, early March 2022, and/or late September 2022. Obviously, these are not the only times we’d recommend visiting (to the contrary, we ourselves will make countless visits between those times), but those windows make a lot of sense and each will likely offer more than the visit before them.
Let’s briefly discuss the pros and cons of each timeframe…
Our latest update to this post adds late September to the list of recommended times to visit. Walt Disney World has announced the World’s Most Magical Celebration, which will start on October 1, 2021 and last for 18 months. That announcement, plus increased normalcy in the United States means one thing: higher crowd levels this fall and beyond.
Late September 2021 is our hedge against this–and a recommendation for gamblers. Pent-up demand will hopefully exhaust itself over the summer, burning out to some degree by mid-August. That plus fans postponing Walt Disney World trips until the 50th Anniversary starts plus September reliably being the off-season means lower crowds relative to the spring, summer, or later in the fall are likely.
Then there’s also the likelihood that everything isn’t going to just magically appear overnight, ready to debut on October 1, 2021. Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure will probably have a soft opening period. Shows will need to return. So will entertainment. Same goes for dining options. That’s all gradual, not instantaneous.
Walt Disney World will need ways to absorb the crowds driven by the celebration, and that means things will come online and return in the weeks leading up to the official start. The “what” and “when” of it will be a gamble, but it’s one we’ll happily take with mid to late September 2021 given the potential upside. My view is that September 19-25, 2021 is the sweet spot–anytime after that you’re going to start getting more of the 50th Anniversary crowds, which are going to be very high through at least the end of 2021.
Next comes mid-October 2021, or more specifically the third full week of the month. Three weeks after the start of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary and one week after the Columbus Day holiday. This is basically the second hedge option for people who aren’t nearly as big of gamblers and don’t mind crowds as much. (Again, crowds will be bad from October through December 2021. There’s no way around that.)
The upsides of this are missing the initial surge of guests for the celebration plus a reasonable degree of normalcy and offerings restored to the pre-closure Walt Disney World experience. The downsides are that there’s still uncertainty around the degree to which normalcy will return by then, and several high-profile attractions previously slated to debut by the start of the 50th Anniversary won’t yet be open.
Early December 2021 is the next recommendation. This is the first full week (or two) of the month, which is always a good time to visit (especially this year as Pop Warner moves to Universal Orlando).
Essentially, pros & cons are the same as mid-October 2021. It’s simply plus Christmas. We have a hard time imagining that much else will change between October and December. Walt Disney World will likely push for as much normalcy as possible ahead of October 1, leaving most remaining changes until 2022.
Next, early March 2022.
Now we’re starting to get into territory where the “optimum normalcy demanded” guests should be more comfortable. It’s possible much more will be restored–think the Disney Dining Plan, FastPass, etc–before 2022, and we think that’s likely the case. However, some things probably won’t be back until early 2022. Those include meet & greets, buffets, full character dining, and more. Early March 2022 should offer a decent buffer for all of that, plus it offers nicer weather and lower crowds ahead of spring break and Easter.
Finally, mid-September 2022.
Same idea here with operational normalcy–but also new attractions and entertainment. Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary will last at least 18 months, meaning the celebration will occur into 2023. As such, next summer or fall are around the halfway point when Disney might roll out new offerings to give the celebration a second wind. Expect TRON Lightcycle Power Run and/or Guardians of the Galaxy Cosmic Rewind to open by then.
One thing to note is that it’s literally impossible to predict how 2021 crowds will compare to 2022 crowds. There are too many unknowns, from attendance caps and physical distancing to pent-up demand or a delayed recession. No one can tell you with any degree of certainty how May 2021 will compare to September 2022 in terms of wait times and congestion. It’s an apples to orangutans comparison.
However, what’s more realistic is picking best weeks within specific months–even more remote ones. This is because we know some variables that impact crowds–like holidays, school schedules, and seasonality–are likely to remain true even as larger trends change. All of that is already built into the recommendations above. Beyond generalizations like those, don’t bother with trying to “time crowds” in the next 2 years at Walt Disney World. It’s a fool’s errand.
Ultimately, which one of those timeframes is right for you is largely circumstantial. If you’re a first-timer, we’re hard pressed to recommend 2021 at all. If you’re a Walt Disney World regular who needs an escape for the sake of your own sanity, visiting before even mid-October 2021 might make a lot of sense. It all comes down to what you value and expect from your Walt Disney World vacation. Obviously, that won’t be the same for everyone.
While there are a lot of near-term unknowns, there’s also upside to visiting near the start of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. Once we cut through all of the “temporary abnormal” and unknowns, there is cause for optimism: even with the EPCOT project ongoing, we’re towards the end of Walt Disney World’s largest-ever expansion cycle (that didn’t involve a brand-new theme park). For the last several years, many Walt Disney World vacation planners have been waiting, so it’s good to finally be in a position where most of the fruits of all this construction have already debuted or will soon.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our recommendations for visiting Walt Disney World in late 2021 or 2022 years? Do you have a trip planned for mid-October 2021, early December 2021, early March 2022, and/or late September 2022? Are you looking forward to visiting once big additions, like TRON Lightcycle Run or Guardians of the Galaxy Cosmic Rewind, are open? Will you go for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary or wait until after that’s over in 2023? Any thoughts or predictions of your own to add? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Has anyone else received the Disney Destination savings for the Grand Floridian? It did not state the percentage or discount. Has anyone else called to inquire?
Thank you
What you received is a new type of targeted bounceback offer (in your case, because you previously stayed at the Grand Floridian). The discount will depend upon travel dates, but what we’ve found is that it’s better than any current general public offers. Definitely worth your time to call and check it out!
As someone who has a trip planned for August, I have grown more pessimistic about much normalcy before the fall, at the earliest.
The evidence:
– “Modified” FOTLK debuting in the summer. They wouldn’t be going through the trouble to modify the show, for a summer debut, if they expected much normalcy by the end of the summer.
-Modified FOTLK was announced weeks ago… with no other announcements. Still no more announcements for further hotel re-openings. If more entertainment was returning by Spring/ early summer, you’d start to hear about it now. I do expect more stuff to return over the Spring and Summer, but looks like it will be in drips and drabs, not a big return until at least Fall/Winter.
-Chapek’s comments suggested near certainty that there would be social distancing and masking for the rest of this year, and that next year would not have the “same” social distancing and masking, but did not suggest it would all be completely normal. This of course gives a wide range of possibilities. Yes, there will be social distancing and masking for the rest of the year, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be relaxed in some ways. And 2022 will have far less social distancing and masking, but not that it will all necessarily be gone. This suggests to me a very very slow deliberate and conservative pace of a return to normalcy. He also talked about an “overlapping” period with potential herd immunity. Suggesting they won’t normalize as we get closer to herd immunity.. more like they will normalize after it appears we have hit herd immunity.
-Yes, he said a quick vaccination schedule COULD speed things up. But we are already falling behind in vaccinations — Fauci now suggesting May/June for wide availability, Biden talking about getting everyone vaccinated by late July. And I read Chapek’s comments to suggest things could potentially speed up a little bit, not that if vaccination is going well, they will flick a switch in April.
Where does that leave us? I was originally hopeful that the big transition period would be April-August, getting back to normal by September. I still believe there will be some slow transition over the Spring and Summer, but I now believe the big transition to normalcy will be more like September – January.
Hi Tom,
We LOVE Disney and have been fortunate enough to visit twice sone the pandemic reopening. We noticed something really shocking on both recent visits. About 50% of the cast members we encountered were decidedly less than magical. It was a huge departure from our previous 5 visits. I am wondering if we are the only Disney fans that have experienced this pandemic Disney situation? It makes me think it might be worth waiting until 2022 to visit especially if this the first visit. It’s just doesn’t feel the same.
That being said, we did encounter many folks who were happy to be working at Disney and very pleasant. What was unexpected was that witnessed several cast members speaking to guests abrasively, and almost rudely numerous times. We love to pin trade and many of the cast members seems out out when we asked about it.
I do understand that cast members now have to help enforce social distancing and mask wearing which is a significant responsibility and presumably not easy. Also, at times it is difficult to hear with people wearing masks, forcing people to shout when maybe they would not usually. Not being able to see people smile also really impacts the guest experience, and I would think Disney would make sure the cast members try other ways to make people feel welcome.
I thought maybe it was an anomaly when we visited in August, but it was even more noticeable this week. I am very optimistic that things will return to normal when Disney staffing returns to the previous structure including the college program.
Same. We had to report someone for the first time. He was a nightmare. And we were just trying to ask a question about the store and he thought we were trying to cut a line. (Which we would NEVER do.) We kept trying to tell him we were not cutting the line we just wanted an answer about the store and he kept on yelling at us that we had to get back in line and quit cutting. It was so bizarre. He refused to even listen to us. And there were multiple cast members there with him who did nothing to help.
Hey Tom! Long time reader, first time replier. I wholeheartedly agree with not postponing a trip for the hopes that things will be better by a certain date. For those postponing their plans, if it is a question between 2021 and 2022, what assurance do any of us have that if the virus concerns and facemasks have subsided that Disney will be the same in 2022 as we remember from pre-pandemic times? Some cutbacks may carry over until a degree of financial recovery is established. Is it a matter of “value”, remember “price is what you pay, value is what you get”- Warren Buffet. Admittedly, there aren’t as many entertainment options right now but the chance to experience more of the available options due to lower crowds, and less frustration for those of us who are crowd adverse, should help to reduce the perceived loss of value. If you aren’t willing to go in 2021, because you feel 2022 will hold more value, are you willing to wait until 2023 if 2022 doesn’t match your expectations? How long will you wait? And to add context and “put my money where my mouth is”, My family of 5 with 3 children 9 and under are going to WDW in May 2021 and plan to return December 2022. We don’t want to sacrifice present opportunities for future hopes. I understand that everyone’s situations and concerns vary so, as always, let your conscious be your guide.
Thanks for the article as we have postponed our May 2021 trip to 2022 since it will be our young children’s first time. We are debating March or May. I was leaning towards first week of May for guaranteed pool days, but seeing your March 2022 suggestion has me second guessing again. What would be your March week suggestion taking into consideration the start of many college spring breaks. Also any crowd concerns for May 4th (HS) and Cinco de mayo (Epcot) or will avoiding those specific parks those days be sufficient?
Honestly, the biggest difference for me between early March 2022 and early May 2022 is my weather preferences. If you favor May weather, definitely go for that month! Within their respective seasons, both tend to be good times to visit, crowd-wise.
We’re holding out for any type of announcement by WDW that Free Dining and FastPasses are “just around the corner.” One thing I have noticed, in my life anyway, is that I’ve learned to live with not being able to do things that I truly enjoyed and have become much more aware of “wasting money” on watered-down entertainment that has not been discounted a reasonable amount. Love WDW, but when I balance what is offered for the prices asked, I just cannot justify the expense. Having visited many times when things were “normal”, the contrast between what was and what is is too significant. That being said, “first timers” won’t realize what they are missing and most likely not be disappointed with their experience. Looks like late ‘21 or mid ‘22 for us. Thanks for your insights and commentary – our little WDW loving group value your efforts.
“That being said, ‘first timers’ won’t realize what they are missing and most likely not be disappointed with their experience.”
It’s interesting that you and I view the same circumstances and reach the opposite conclusions. Not saying I’m right and you’re wrong–I truly don’t know.
It very well could be a matter of those never tasting steak preferring hamburger! Regardless, thanks for offering your perspective. 🙂
We are planning a trip for April, but I’m getting a little nervous. I originally thought the mask policy was for three and up, we have a 2 and 4 year old. We are pro mask but my 2 year really struggles with keeping hers on so I’m a little worried about her at Disney, can’t say I’m thrilled about it either all day. But as I’m booking adas now I’m also concerned about no fast passes. I planned our last, and first, trip to WDW largely around fast passes. We used to live in CA and had DL season passes for years so we got spoiled and never did much waiting in line. Therefore now we really avoid long lines. We love Disney for more than just the rides, ambiance, food, entertainment….but with three small children ride lines will be tough. I guess my question is I’m not sure what to expect for ride lines since they’re all standby? We will be going for a week, we like to go slow, but even so I don’t want to be spending large portions of our days in line. Are lines super long, is it worth going still? I don’t see us canceling at this point, Covid thankfully is looking up, but our daughter turns three in June so we do want to go while she’s still free.
Oh, we’re going last April well after Spring Break.
Lines and wait times haven’t been bad at all during the winter off-season. I hesitate to make a prediction for late April despite that also being off-season, because we might start seeing greater travel optimism by then. I’m doubtful of that quick of a turnaround time, but I really do not know.
I also hesitate to offer much feedback on the masks and kids concerns. Hopefully other parents who have visited since July can chime in with their experiences. (Sorry, I realize this wasn’t helpful at all.)
Lacy, Check out Rafi Nova for kids masks. It’s taken me all of this time to finally get my three year old boy to wear a mask. I never forced it, but kept trying consistently for months. I’ve been stressing since he’ll need to keep one on at Disney/Universal. He has a petite face, a strong will and is highly active. These fit small faces well and come out far enough from nose so that it isn’t constricting. The prints are very cute.
Normal IS now. Normal is a perceived state, an infinite spectrum and arguably unattainable. As you mentioned above, mental health for my whole family far outweighs any perception of what idea of normalcy we’d sit around and wait for. Having said that, we do have the privilege of the painful and scary months (now one year), of health care workers, etc. figuring this mess out. Ask this eight months ago and the idea of normal had a whole different construct. We’re going this year. Choosing not to fly, but rather opting for what will be a long car journey–a challenge that couldn’t age us more than the last year has.
“Having said that, we do have the privilege of the painful and scary months (now one year), of health care workers, etc. figuring this mess out.”
I know you’re not suggesting it, but I do not want to make clear that I have the utmost respect and admiration of the healthcare workers and scientific community that have sacrificed so much and worked tirelessly to make today’s optimism possible.
None of this would be possible without their work. Even with the hiccups, I’m blown away by the vaccine development and rollout.
threshold for our next return trip requires my family to have been vaccinated and (not or) Finding Nemo The Musical to be in performance once again,..
I’m from the UK, and recently booked a trip for 2 weeks from 28 November 2021 based on your previous recommendations for the time of year to go. We’ve never been at Christmas, probably never will again (though we will certainly come back to WDW), and we are really excited.
Facemasks still being around would definitely put a dampener on that. I hate wearing one personally – but, of course, I wear one in all indoor public spaces as requested by our government, because it’s the right thing to do. But wearing one all day, outdoors and indoors, at Disney World would be a real shame (though I would of course follow whatever rules are in place). I find them really uncomfortable and imagine that’s only worse in Florida’s climate, even in December. If it gets close and we can still cancel everything then I’ll seriously consider it should they still be required.
We’ll have to see though! And if nothing else, having something booked for me to look forward to has really helped with my mental health during the current lockdown.
Hi Tom!
When do you think would be the best time to book a mid-October 2021 trip? I’m looking at room rates for Disney properties (where we would want to stay) and I don’t see any deals–but perhaps there won’t be?
Thanks!
Emily
The whole chicken and egg scenario that you mentioned is exactly what I had said in my comment from the other day. While I understand that some of the shows and fireworks are clearly affected by attendance caps, it seems as though it is more a case of Disney obviously wanting to save money. If more people get vaccinated, and numbers are generally looking better (and they are also keeping mask requirements); it seems like they could open these outdoor shows/entertainment if they wanted to. Especially since they’ve already opened an indoor one (Frozen) and are scheduled to open another (FOTLK). Doesn’t make sense from an outdoor/indoor perspective of transmission. It boils down to whether they want to spend the money.
If you build it (spend it); they will come
@JC It’s probably easier to enforce physical distancing in an indoor sit-down venue because they can do things like block off seats, or possibly whole rows of seats, as opposed to the random, standing crowds that gather in viewing areas for fireworks, parades, etc.
There are a LOT of things that make a trip to the resort less than desirable right now besides reduced entertainment offerings. Things like required masks, the reservation system, no FastPass, no dining plan, etc.
Also, “If you build it (spend it); they will come”? Didn’t they just spend billions on Galaxy’s Edge and Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway? Aren’t they spending billions more on Ratatouille, Guardians…Cosmic Rewind, Tron, and making over Future World at Epcot to the point where it’s going to look like a whole new park?
A lot of people aren’t visiting the resort now because they’re not travelling at all. We had double digit unemployment for, like, four months last year. Some people haven’t recovered yet. Also, hello??!! There’s still a pandemic going on and people are (understandably) hesitant to get on a plane or go to a theme park. It’s not “living in fear”, it’s behaving with caution. Also, some people might live in places where travelling to Florida is PHYSICALLY, LEGALLY impossible. Like, everyone from out of the country. As you might know, the borders (for people from certain countries) are closed. Even from Canada. If people can’t travel, it means they CAN’T TRAVEL. You’re not going to change that with a fireworks show.
Fireworks and nighttime spectaculars will return at some point. If they weren’t, then why is all that work being done on HarmonioUS?
I understand your enthusiasm when talking about “now” versus later, but I also know you have no children. Sure it’s easy for you and your wife to pop in for visits with your seasonal passes but for families traveling with children (often young children) it really change the game when you have to travel and deal with the headaches of COVID19. My kids are older now (teenagers) so they will easily wear masks but I could never imagine taking them when they were younger and asking them to wear a mask in 90 degree heat and everywhere else in Disney. Then add to that the travel to get there involved. Flying with a mask or driving across multiple states (very risky) just adds to the experience.
Weighing all those options most parents (especially since Disney isn’t exactly “cheap”) will probably choose to wait. If you’re dropping a few thousand dollars, and let’s face it even staying at the cheapest hotels you are, on a Disney vacation you want it to be enjoyable. You want pictures without half your face covered.
Just my 2 cents …
Those are fair points, and there’s always going to be a sense of YMMV to posts like this.
My only pushback would be that some of the things you mentioned are applicable to travel across the board. Personally, I believe the mental health and other benefits of traveling at some point after being vaccinated later this year–whether to WDW, National Parks, etc–will far outweigh those risks. Again, to each their own, though.
I agree completely.
I have always been someone who believes in not putting things off, life is short you should have the experiences you want. But putting off a Disney trip because a new ride or land isn’t open is very different from putting it off because all fireworks, shows, meet & greets and other entertainment are gone for the exact same ticket price.
That’s totally fair, and people with that perspective should take a trip elsewhere in 2021.
With that said, there’s still a potential tradeoff–if a large number of people have that ‘postpone’ mentality, you may be looking at higher crowd levels and prices come 2022.
Hi Tom,
You have a point, in that for people who postpone till 2022, they might run into a bigger crowd than expected, being that many others are planning the same thing. Personally, if I make it back to WDW in 2022, I am planning for a hotel stay only. That way, I don’t have to worry about the excess crowds in the parks.
As a frequent reader, one of the threads you pull pretty consistently is that the real joy of these types of vacations is, “just being there.” I grew up going to Disneyworld several times (the only vacations where my dad didn’t work), but then didn’t think about Disney until we had kids of our own. We fell back in love with the experience during our “one and only” trip. All the real joy I’ve derived from these trips is in someway related to just being there.
For the next couple years everything is going to be somewhat of a guess; there will be tradeoffs. As much as people want that secret week or that best time, I think it’s immensely more valuable to analyze the reason’s why a time might be good or bad (which this resource does a great job of providing) and then weigh what is important to you personally.
At the end of the day, if you can make it happen I agree wholeheartedly with the author that you should just go and don’t get wrapped up in having that “perfect trip”.
Now whether or not the experience still offers fair value for the money….whole different discussion (love the new Universal content!).
Totally agree. Despite some appearances to the contrary, I don’t like saying the same thing over and over again so I didn’t reiterate this expressly, but it’s nevertheless strongly-held sentiment that (hopefully) permeates this post.
Great post as usual, Tom. I admire your optimism – I vacillate depending on my mood or a story I read in the news. I agree on the vaccination rate being something quantifiable as opposed to health expert guidance, especially the term “moving goalposts.” I’m not sure when (or if!) the CDC will ever say things can be “normal” again but I’m counting on an overwhelming number of vaccinated people being fed up with their situation at some point. Whether that means a health passport comes into play (as you’ve suggested previously), I don’t know, but I’d like to see some movement as we approach fall.
As to your question about 2021 or 2022, though, I say … why not both? We’re going in April and I’m already thinking ahead to summer 2022 when my kids are out of school. This is full on revenge travel stuff!
“…I vacillate depending on my mood or a story I read in the news…”
Oh, this is also very much me. My optimism definitely is not completely unwavering, but my ‘daily optimism levels’ are currently at the highest they’ve been since early March of last year.
Hi Tom! Even if it’s part of your job, I hope you realize that you are extremely lucky to be able to visit Walt Disney World so often. My wife and I are on a limited budget and we are doing our best to save up for our magic place. After our next trip we will not be able to go back for at least five years. So we will wait until all of the Covid-19 stuff is over. And really fully enjoy the Disney experience. Thanks to you and Sarah for the good work! We really appreciate it!
“I hope you realize that you are extremely lucky to be able to visit Walt Disney World so often.”
Absolutely–and the last year has been an eye-opening reminder of how privileged we are in that regard. We have a new appreciation not just of Walt Disney World post-reopening, but of so many simple pleasures we took for granted.
WARNING: wild conjecture ahead:
Like you (presumably) I devour every news article and piece of information on vaccines that I can find, but alas neither of us are experts so we’re winging it to some extent. That said, I’m even more optimistic than you about things starting to get back to normal. The past few weeks have shown that COVID is even more susceptible to seasonality than anyone thought it would be (good news!), and compound that with the following – (1) the most at-risk people are already getting vaccinated and (2) the likelihood that the vaccines are available to all adults by May-ish means that hospitalizations and deaths may be WAY WAY down by mid summer. So now we have the vaccine available to all adults and hosp/deaths way down by mid summer…I have to think that means things will very quickly start to reopen by July or August. And I can’t imagine Disney being the last adaptor to “getting back to normal” given the money on the line.
I know the alternative line of thinking is that restrictions country-wide won’t be eased until we reach a vaccine herd immunity (which may never happen due to vaccine resistance), but I just personally think it’s going to be difficult or impossible to justify keeping all restrictions when the COVID metrics are looking so peachy and when the demand from the public is growing and growing throughout the summer to reopen.
Actually, you’re wrong…I agree completely and am every bit as optimistic as you (including the vaccine hesitancy–hence my statement about pessimism being actively harmful). 😉
However, I crouch some of what I say in the body-text here because I don’t want to be accused of giving false optimism or proven incredibly wrong down the road. My personal optimism far exceeds what’s presented here–I’ll just leave it at that.
Haha! In that case, I admit defeat. Definitely don’t blame you for wording things cautiously – I would too in your shoes.
I love this optimism! I don’t have a timeframe in mind, but I agree with your general points (and said as much in my post here). There’s a difference between being scientifically perfect (ie, herd immunity) and what the public will tolerate. When we’re at, say, 60% vaccinated by summer, people will be clamoring for normal life again, no matter what the health experts recommend.
In my job and in my community, I’m already seeing the effects of vaccines and the COVID numbers currently dropping. I still see masks, but more and more people are trying to live life as normally as possible and are starting to ask for less restrictions on what is permitted. If COVID truly is seasonal, I agree that a lot of people are going to want to get back to normal when COVID numbers are extremely low in the summer.
It’s scary making optimistic predictions these days! I’m naturally a pessimistic person, but I’m also very science and data oriented and if I’m making a 100% honest prediction based on all available information…it’s going to be a very optimistic one. Glad to see some backup here! 100% agree with you Brian.
I have booked to go to WDW in June 2021, after having twice before had cancellations.
I am 75 years old and we live in Spain ,my wife is 73 .
As this will be the last time are able to visit, do you think it is viable or should we cancel again and get our money back?
International travel restrictions–particularly involving specific countries–are beyond my comfort zone when it comes to predictions. I think there will be a desire to restore international travel this summer, especially with close allies that are willing to reach bilateral agreements, but that’s about the best I can offer. Sorry!
It is ultimately up to you but assuming international travel regulations allow you to visit in 2021, I would encourage you to go. Things won’t be back to normal yet but there’s more than enough available for you to have a good time. If this summer is truly the last chance you think you’ll ever have to visit, I say go and make the most of it!
Why not change your reservation to November? Weather isn’t so hot, Christmas decorations are up, restrictions likely will be down, more people will be vaccinated, you’ll be more likely to be allowed to come to the US to start with.
Hi Tom,
Another interesting read and it’s nice to have some optimism – hopefully it isn’t misplaced! I do agree with your assessment about masks being less likely by October given the vaccine roll out and whatnot, but it would be interesting to see your thoughts on if they will likely be required in September? I only ask as we’re due to fly out to Florida then and would love it if they’re no longer mandated!
Many thanks.