2019 Disney World Crowd Predictions: When to Go & Avoiding Star Wars Land Lines
Walt Disney World’s early opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge has upended crowd calendars, upsetting many vacation planners in the process. Here we’ll offer predictions for the best and worst months to visit for the remainder of 2019, which we’ve revised following the announced date for Rise of the Resistance. At the end, we’ll also pick three weeks we’d visit. (Last updated July 13, 2019.)
Initially, I was going to simply update our 2019 Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World post to account for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. However, that post takes a more holistic approach to rankings based upon weather, special events, entertainment, and more. Crowds are just one factor used to rank the months.
Judging by recent comments, many of you are primarily concerned with crowds this year, and are wanting to find time for a trip when Walt Disney World is not packed. To that end, we’re offering the below rankings on the sole basis of our Walt Disney World crowd predictions…
Before we dig into the Walt Disney World crowd ‘calendar’ for 2019, some caveats are in order. First, these are our best guesses. Literally no one has perfect foresight as to what Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will bring with it. If someone claims to be able to precisely forecast Walt Disney World crowd levels post Star Wars land’s opening, you should be highly skeptical.
Even DisneyWorld.com has a warning at the top of its ticket page stating, “access to the park, land and experiences may be restricted or unavailable depending on guest demand and other factors” as if to say, we don’t know how busy it’ll be, but prepare for the worst.
Second, there will be good days in bad months and vice-a-versa. The reason I’m hesitant to make more granular predictions is because it’s really difficult to do so with a high degree of accuracy. Extraneous variables like weather (good or bad) can impact wait times, as can Disney’s manipulation of attraction capacity, or even a large conference being held on-site. Moreover, Disney could release new discounts, promotions, or limited-time entertainment offerings to lure guests into the parks.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that the Walt Disney World crowd calendar game is a far from precise science, and that’s especially true for 2019 as we are likely to experience a summer lull in the lead-up to Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, followed by who-knows-what in the aftermath.
Nevertheless, we’re doing our best with these rankings, and offering some explanation as to why we feel the way we do about each month. Please note that these rankings are only applicable for the remainder of 2019, so do not rely on them for 2020…
6. December – This is not exactly a bold prediction, especially now that Disney has announced the Opening Date for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. This is the flagship attraction of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, and many fans undoubtedly will be waiting until its debut to visit. Accordingly, we now expect December to be the busiest month of 2019–by a long shot.
Aside from a few pockets early in the month, December has become one of the busier months of the year, irrespective of Star Wars Land. People love seeing the parks decked out for the holidays, the temperate weather, and Christmas events. For 2019, expect that to be compounded by those who postponed trips last year, waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge to open. We would anticipate this demographic to disproportionately favor December.
5. November – Pretty much the same story here. Christmas kicks off at Walt Disney World in early November, and it starts drawing people the week before Thanksgiving through the end of the month.
If you’re looking for a “sweet spot,” we’d recommend aiming for around November 10-22, 2019. This should be the best mix of nice weather, lower crowds, Christmas decorations, and just maybe Rise of the Resistance having soft openings towards the end of that timeframe. Any dates after November 22, 2019 are likely to see increasingly elevated Thanksgiving crowds.
4. October – This month went from being one of the best options to one of the worst in the span of only a few years. Last year, there was a bit of a lull in October, but it was still pretty far from off-season.
We’d again expect October to be a very busy month thanks to conventions, school breaks, and tourists who want to double-dip on Star Wars Land and Halloween.
3. July – The likelihood of a pre-Star Wars slump this summer is a real one, and the main reason we expect June and July to be less busy than last year.
Promotions have already been released to entice people to visit in July, with Free Dining beginning immediately after the Independence Day holiday. We predict that this won’t be enough to offset those sitting out this summer, making July a slightly better option.
2. August – If you don’t want to gamble on our advice below–and frankly, we don’t blame you since these are uncharted waters–then late August will be your best and safest option, so long as you’re out a few days before Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. There’s also the potential for Soft Openings of Star Wars Land in late August.
That window will offer the best combination of schools going back into session, poor weather discouraging others from visiting, and a lack of anyone who is waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Those two weeks or so have the potential to be the absolute least busy of the year, but when averaged with the beginning of the month and last few days, we’re still giving the edge to September.
1. September – To be entirely honest with you, predicting September will be the best month to visit Walt Disney World in 2019 is the pretext for this entire article. Our Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge Opening Date Announcement post has over 200 comments; going through those, many are from people who planned September trips and are freaking out about crowds.
We made this ‘September will be best’ prediction back when the opening date for Galaxy’s Edge was announced, and most readers feared the worst, and were skeptical of our prediction. If you’ve read our Why Are Star Wars Land Crowds So Low? post, which is based upon the first month-plus of the land being open at Disneyland, this is exactly the scenario that has played out there. Of course, Walt Disney World is a totally different beast, but we still think there’s good reason to not expect the absolute worst.
There’s no doubt September 2019 will be more crowded than last September. There are a couple questions that should be asked. First, how crowded will it be as compared to last year? Second, how crowded will September 2019 be as compared to October 2019 and pretty much forever beyond?
It’s tough to answer the first question with any degree of certainty (although Walt Disney World not raising ticket prices for September 2019 does say something about their internal forecasts). As to the second question, we’re moderately confident that September 2019 will be better than pretty much any month between now and September 2020.
My reasons for picking September as the least-crowded month are three-fold. First, history. September has been by far the least crowded month for the last several years, if not longer. Last September the parks were veritable ghost towns on some days, and it was consistently the least busy we’ve seen Magic Kingdom in years.
Second, the main factors causing September to be uncrowded–school schedules and weather–aren’t impacted by the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Unless a national holiday is declared for the opening of Star Wars land–and with Disney’s power, perhaps that isn’t entirely outside the realm of possibilities–most schools are going to be in session during the entirety of September. For a lot of people, September is simply an undesirable month to visit, and that’s true irrespective of Star Wars.
Finally, those planning for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge might be inclined to avoid September as it’s the immediate aftermath of the opening and because the flagship Rise of the Resistance attraction won’t be open then. Based on the above, ‘immediate aftermath’ reasoning is probably fallacious, but many people will no doubt have that perception, thinking it’s a savvy move to “wait out” the crowds until December.
On the other hand, waiting for the whole land to open certainly isn’t a terrible idea and there are no doubt a decent number of people who will do that. Those guests will be inclined to roll the dice that December (when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge was originally rumored to open) is the safer bet.
I would anticipate appreciably larger crowds beginning in October and crescendoing in December. In large part, this is simply the converse of the above points. Both annual and first-time visitors favor these months, for a variety of reasons ranging from school schedules to weather to other seasonal offerings.
With both Pandora and Toy Story Land, some of the worst waits of the year were not experienced in the few weeks after the lands opened, but in the October to December months. Aside from those who want to say they did it “first” on opening weekend, a good segment of the Disney fanbase (and casual visitors) are perfectly willing to wait a few months and time their visit for new offerings when it’s more convenient for them, holidays are being celebrated, weather is nicer, and the opening surge has subsided (except, again, this last one is erroneous reasoning).
Again, all of these are merely our predictions–but that’s the best anyone can offer at this point. For what it’s worth, if we were only booking one trip for the rest of the year, we’d choose November 15-21, 2019. That’s based on a number of factors, including weather, Christmas, and crowds. (Note: we picked these dates before Rise of the Resistance’s opening date was announced–we’d now be tempted to choose December 1-7, 2019 in light of that…or just hope for soft openings during our original date range.)
If we were only worried about crowds and didn’t care about Star Wars at all, we’d pick August 20-26, 2019. If we were worried about crowds but did care about Star Wars, we’d choose September 8-14, 2019. No matter which dates you choose, expect Walt Disney World crowds, generally speaking, to get worse later in the year.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our rankings? Which month do you think will be least crowded for the remainder of 2019 at Walt Disney World? Most crowded? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
tom, what about labor day week itself? overall, typically a very slow week, in spite of the holiday. everything seems to fall off the cliff on tuesday, and that’s when we’ll be there. we “like” SW, but have no interest in the crowds for it there that week (and had planned that week specifically to avoid “late fall 2019”). i see you picked the two weeks on either side of laborday week, but what are you thoughts for that week? do you think the other 3 parks will be any more crowded than they otherwise would be?
Your thinking is fairly spot on. The holiday week may see a slightly higher number of tourists than normal this year, but it still won’t be bad as far as holidays go.
thank you!
We have been visiting WDW at Christmas for 30 years. Tired of crowds. Thinking about December 7 for a week. What ya think?
We have a trip planned- Dec 7-15th. I am worried about crowds, as I booked this 499 days out.
Just my two cents: I think that week in December is generally fairly slow because people don’t pull their kids out of school two weeks before winter break. Weekends will pick up a bit.
The Christmas party is going on at Magic Kingdom, though, and that affects crowds at Magic Kingdom specifically. The party dates for that week are December 6, 8, 10, 12, 13, and 15. On those days, if you don’t buy a party ticket, you have to leave Magic Kingdom around 6-7pm and don’t get to stay for the parade or fireworks. Because of that, most visitors will choose to go to Magic Kingdom on December 7, 9, 11, and 14, making those days much more crowded!
What’s your best guess on crowds marathon weekend. This’ll be a first January visit for us
We are going Sept 16th-24th, so I’m sure hoping that September will be lower… My thoughts also are that the kids will be in school, and if we stay out of HS on the weekend, we might be ok.
I’m glad to read this. We are heading to DW the middle of May ‘19, we were originally booked for September and decided to change it due to Star Wars opening. I feel like September is a gamble and we felt more comfortable going in May and not worrying about weather in Sep. as well. We homeschool so we have the luxury of being about to travel in off seasons.
Hey! We are planning a family trip in February 2020. Do you think that crowds will become more “normal” by then? We usually go in May or June but thought we would try a different time since those are normally pretty busy and we are going with a larger group this time around.
We want to experience galaxy edge but enjoy the rest of the parks, we know it will be crowded, for galaxy edge,what is better january 2020 or february 2020 for crowds(other than galaxy edge which will be packed regardless)
We were wondering why you didn’t list September 18th through the 24th on your best times to travel to WDW due to crowds? The Florida schools will be back in session, as will the rest of the country, and there are no holiday’s that week.
The entire month of September is listed as the best time to visit, with the week before that specifically mentioned. Likewise, those dates should be pretty good.
Terrific! We’re planning on avoiding Galaxy’s Edge and possibly Hollywood Studios altogether with the exception of a Toy Story Land rope drop. It wasn’t open on our last trip and we really want to try Slinky Dog and Alien Swirling Saucers. Keeping our finger crossed 🙂 Thoughts?
Hi! 🙂 It seems as if there are pretty light crowds in WDW at the end of August and in September, but will it be any different this year due to the new Star Wars attraction? I apologise for any grammar mistakes, English isn’t my native language.
I would like to know if Disney will be offering any summer room discounts. I know that there was a Fun nd Sun promo but that ended and nothing has been put in to replace it yet. My son wants to go on vacation and stay on site , but it looks like it’s all full price even for July. Since summer might be slower this year, do you think there will be another sale coming soon?
My family and I are heading to Walt Disney in October 2019 from Canada…We are excited about experiencing the Halloween scene. The last few times we went during Christmas which was amazing. After reading the crowd info seems like October has become a bit more crowded 🙁 I will brave the crowds I guess Oct 14-20…any tips to help deal with the crowds? Is the weather very hot in October? A plus is we are staying on Disney property which makes things easier.
Just returned from the Poly last week. In my opinion the Magic Kingdom and Animal k were packed. We joined DVC at Copper Creek
Look forward to a return trip mid August. First visit to WDW was 1972. I was 15. Love the Poly but DVC points required make it a no go.
Hopefully our DVC will turn out to be the right decision. Been going to WDW for years
DVCcis great member since 2003. We have stayed at Poly but garden view room. Lake views were of the bungalows. We are Beach club members but love Boulder Ridge and staying at Copper Creek first time in May. I’m positive it was the right decision.
The dates of choice for our family annual Disney vacation is September, immediately after Labor Day. Parks were ideal for me and my scooter. The longest waiting time we got was FOP (75 minutes). We rode Everest 9 times in one hour.
I just canceled our September vacation. I don’t think we will be happy or relaxed with the crowds waiting for Star Wars to open. Disney will not see us on at least three or four years.
Hi, I’ve been reading a lot of your blogs and each one is just as informative as the last so a huge thank you for that We are planning our first trip with out 5 year old end Feb-early March 2020… I’m wondering if you think this will be a good time for a first visit?
Hi Sarah and Tom! I love your Disney blog and have a quick question for you
I am planning a trip for May 2020. It looks like typically The Summit All-Star Cheerleading Championship is the first weekend and the D2 Summit Cheerleading Championship is the second weekend in May. Do these weekends typically stay the same every year?? Thank you so much for your help!
Yes they do. Or at least they have for the last few years. My daughter will be at D2 Summit again this year. We found the parks to be crowded for the weekend of the event, but by Monday afternoon crowds has thinned out (Monday evening we rode Avatar-FOP twice with the wait for the last ride being less than 30 min). This year we are staying a few extra days after the event. I’m hoping for nice crowd levels mid-week. If you can avoid the parks on the weekend (Sat/Sun) and avoid the All-Star resorts, it should be a good time to go.
Do you know when WDW typically opens online booking for May 2020? Thinking of booking the 3rd or last week of May at an All Stars or Pop Century if we can get in, wondering if this will be a good time to go, will the cheerleaders crowd be gone by then??
We took our daughter to Disney for her first time in November 2018 for her 9th birthday. We went the week of November 11th and the crowds weren’t bad.
Apparently unusual, but her favorite rides were in Hollywood Studios, that is, Tower of Terror and Rock’n Rollercoaster. Of course, she also loved Magic Kingdom. She did NOT like Epcot. We were planning to return in November 2019 before the rumored opening of Star Wars land, for which she has little interest. We stayed at the Polynesian and would so again. We intended to visit Magic Kingdom for 2 days and a Christmas party, Hollywood Studios for 2 days, and include Universal in this trip. Now I am worried about the crowds. What are your suggestions? Should we wait a year? Will crowds in mid-November be higher than usual or will many people wait until Smugglers’ Run opens? Will crowds spill over into Magic Kingdom and the water parks?
Thanks for your thoughts.
We are set for the third week in July. I couldn’t even get 7/20 initially at Pop and so I booked for 7/21-7/28. Kept checking and Disney reservations told us that bookings were dropping like flies. People are even giving up free dining for the opening of SWGE. I was able to add 7/20 to my reservation as well, because of cancellations.
Do you mean people are dropping summer bookings and moving to after SWGE is open or people booked for after SWGE opens are dropping and moving their trips to summer?
Hmmm…my husband and are going to Daytona May 31-June but usually do a day or two of Disney and always eat at a Disney restaurant for our anniversary so I wonder if it will low crowds in June as well? Here’s hoping!
We do ave income inequality, and Incomes seem to vary in different regions of the country.
Here’s how we do it. Fly Southwest: earn points, flexible change policy. We earned companion passes by getting their Visa card.
We buy our tix from undercover tourist, saving 10%. the longer you stay, the tix get way cheaper. A 5 day ticket is not much more than a 3 day ticket.
We stay at the Value resorts and love them. they are usually below $200 a night, much lower in off season. We are a family of 4, so no wasted bed space. Staying on property gets us free transportation to and from airport and from hotel to parks etc.
We also take advantage of free dining offers whenever possible and when we cant, we pack granola bars and order groceries from Garden Grocer when we get to WDW.
We have it down to under $1000 a person for a week( flight, hotel, tix, food). Still a lot of money, but doable for us every other year. We save up by cutting back on expenses through the year.
Any thoughts on Disney crowds in 2020? We were considering a January or February trip. We are not hemmed in by a school calendar but really hate to travel to Florida in summer. The heat is unbearable.
Actually, you are right it is really expensive. We are lucky, we are all adult and pay our own way. Now it is our turn to help my mom pay for her stay there. I really don’t know how a family would be able to stay on property even at the cheapest places. which is where we stay, the increase in prices are not worth it for the better hotels.
I can’t believe all the people who can afford to go to disney and stay on the property. I have a middle class family and I can’t do it. Everything is so expensive that I don’t think I will ever be able to go again. How do all these people do it without charging their charge cards to their very limits. With all the restrictions and high prices it makes it useless to even think about going to disney again!
DIfferent people make different amounts of money.
Dear Rob, My husband I are retired with a pension total of $75,000 a year, What do you make that makes it easy for you to go to WDW?
Totally agree! And I live in FL! Many of my friends have had their last visit also. They won’t miss us.
We camp at Fort Wilderness. Around $100 per night, and so many ways to enjoy WDW without even entering the parks. I suggest the 100,200, and 300 loops.
I have an older car, so while most people are making car payments, I use the money towards my trip. I use airline points for my flights. I also work 50+hours a week, so I work hard to earn the $. Even with that said I can only go every 3-4 years. I wish I could go every year!
Hi there. I have been to Disneyworld about 25 times. I cannot believe how expensive it is either now. When we used to go every year; we would book our hotel and make payments every month. I know it is expensive; but we stay at the Grand Floridian on club level. If you do not go to the parks everyday; it pays for itself because there is food everyday all day. We tried the value resorts and ended up spending $$$ on food all day. We visit the parks every other day. I buy my park tickets at AAA for a discount. We also do park hopping for Animal Kingdom and MGM. Magic Kingdom demands a whole day 🙂
Having no kids, 2 people travel is less exprensive than tickets for 6 people