2019 Disney World Crowd Predictions: When to Go & Avoiding Star Wars Land Lines
Walt Disney World’s early opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge has upended crowd calendars, upsetting many vacation planners in the process. Here we’ll offer predictions for the best and worst months to visit for the remainder of 2019, which we’ve revised following the announced date for Rise of the Resistance. At the end, we’ll also pick three weeks we’d visit. (Last updated July 13, 2019.)
Initially, I was going to simply update our 2019 Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World post to account for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. However, that post takes a more holistic approach to rankings based upon weather, special events, entertainment, and more. Crowds are just one factor used to rank the months.
Judging by recent comments, many of you are primarily concerned with crowds this year, and are wanting to find time for a trip when Walt Disney World is not packed. To that end, we’re offering the below rankings on the sole basis of our Walt Disney World crowd predictions…
Before we dig into the Walt Disney World crowd ‘calendar’ for 2019, some caveats are in order. First, these are our best guesses. Literally no one has perfect foresight as to what Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will bring with it. If someone claims to be able to precisely forecast Walt Disney World crowd levels post Star Wars land’s opening, you should be highly skeptical.
Even DisneyWorld.com has a warning at the top of its ticket page stating, “access to the park, land and experiences may be restricted or unavailable depending on guest demand and other factors” as if to say, we don’t know how busy it’ll be, but prepare for the worst.
Second, there will be good days in bad months and vice-a-versa. The reason I’m hesitant to make more granular predictions is because it’s really difficult to do so with a high degree of accuracy. Extraneous variables like weather (good or bad) can impact wait times, as can Disney’s manipulation of attraction capacity, or even a large conference being held on-site. Moreover, Disney could release new discounts, promotions, or limited-time entertainment offerings to lure guests into the parks.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that the Walt Disney World crowd calendar game is a far from precise science, and that’s especially true for 2019 as we are likely to experience a summer lull in the lead-up to Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, followed by who-knows-what in the aftermath.
Nevertheless, we’re doing our best with these rankings, and offering some explanation as to why we feel the way we do about each month. Please note that these rankings are only applicable for the remainder of 2019, so do not rely on them for 2020…
6. December – This is not exactly a bold prediction, especially now that Disney has announced the Opening Date for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. This is the flagship attraction of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, and many fans undoubtedly will be waiting until its debut to visit. Accordingly, we now expect December to be the busiest month of 2019–by a long shot.
Aside from a few pockets early in the month, December has become one of the busier months of the year, irrespective of Star Wars Land. People love seeing the parks decked out for the holidays, the temperate weather, and Christmas events. For 2019, expect that to be compounded by those who postponed trips last year, waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge to open. We would anticipate this demographic to disproportionately favor December.
5. November – Pretty much the same story here. Christmas kicks off at Walt Disney World in early November, and it starts drawing people the week before Thanksgiving through the end of the month.
If you’re looking for a “sweet spot,” we’d recommend aiming for around November 10-22, 2019. This should be the best mix of nice weather, lower crowds, Christmas decorations, and just maybe Rise of the Resistance having soft openings towards the end of that timeframe. Any dates after November 22, 2019 are likely to see increasingly elevated Thanksgiving crowds.
4. October – This month went from being one of the best options to one of the worst in the span of only a few years. Last year, there was a bit of a lull in October, but it was still pretty far from off-season.
We’d again expect October to be a very busy month thanks to conventions, school breaks, and tourists who want to double-dip on Star Wars Land and Halloween.
3. July – The likelihood of a pre-Star Wars slump this summer is a real one, and the main reason we expect June and July to be less busy than last year.
Promotions have already been released to entice people to visit in July, with Free Dining beginning immediately after the Independence Day holiday. We predict that this won’t be enough to offset those sitting out this summer, making July a slightly better option.
2. August – If you don’t want to gamble on our advice below–and frankly, we don’t blame you since these are uncharted waters–then late August will be your best and safest option, so long as you’re out a few days before Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. There’s also the potential for Soft Openings of Star Wars Land in late August.
That window will offer the best combination of schools going back into session, poor weather discouraging others from visiting, and a lack of anyone who is waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Those two weeks or so have the potential to be the absolute least busy of the year, but when averaged with the beginning of the month and last few days, we’re still giving the edge to September.
1. September – To be entirely honest with you, predicting September will be the best month to visit Walt Disney World in 2019 is the pretext for this entire article. Our Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge Opening Date Announcement post has over 200 comments; going through those, many are from people who planned September trips and are freaking out about crowds.
We made this ‘September will be best’ prediction back when the opening date for Galaxy’s Edge was announced, and most readers feared the worst, and were skeptical of our prediction. If you’ve read our Why Are Star Wars Land Crowds So Low? post, which is based upon the first month-plus of the land being open at Disneyland, this is exactly the scenario that has played out there. Of course, Walt Disney World is a totally different beast, but we still think there’s good reason to not expect the absolute worst.
There’s no doubt September 2019 will be more crowded than last September. There are a couple questions that should be asked. First, how crowded will it be as compared to last year? Second, how crowded will September 2019 be as compared to October 2019 and pretty much forever beyond?
It’s tough to answer the first question with any degree of certainty (although Walt Disney World not raising ticket prices for September 2019 does say something about their internal forecasts). As to the second question, we’re moderately confident that September 2019 will be better than pretty much any month between now and September 2020.
My reasons for picking September as the least-crowded month are three-fold. First, history. September has been by far the least crowded month for the last several years, if not longer. Last September the parks were veritable ghost towns on some days, and it was consistently the least busy we’ve seen Magic Kingdom in years.
Second, the main factors causing September to be uncrowded–school schedules and weather–aren’t impacted by the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Unless a national holiday is declared for the opening of Star Wars land–and with Disney’s power, perhaps that isn’t entirely outside the realm of possibilities–most schools are going to be in session during the entirety of September. For a lot of people, September is simply an undesirable month to visit, and that’s true irrespective of Star Wars.
Finally, those planning for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge might be inclined to avoid September as it’s the immediate aftermath of the opening and because the flagship Rise of the Resistance attraction won’t be open then. Based on the above, ‘immediate aftermath’ reasoning is probably fallacious, but many people will no doubt have that perception, thinking it’s a savvy move to “wait out” the crowds until December.
On the other hand, waiting for the whole land to open certainly isn’t a terrible idea and there are no doubt a decent number of people who will do that. Those guests will be inclined to roll the dice that December (when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge was originally rumored to open) is the safer bet.
I would anticipate appreciably larger crowds beginning in October and crescendoing in December. In large part, this is simply the converse of the above points. Both annual and first-time visitors favor these months, for a variety of reasons ranging from school schedules to weather to other seasonal offerings.
With both Pandora and Toy Story Land, some of the worst waits of the year were not experienced in the few weeks after the lands opened, but in the October to December months. Aside from those who want to say they did it “first” on opening weekend, a good segment of the Disney fanbase (and casual visitors) are perfectly willing to wait a few months and time their visit for new offerings when it’s more convenient for them, holidays are being celebrated, weather is nicer, and the opening surge has subsided (except, again, this last one is erroneous reasoning).
Again, all of these are merely our predictions–but that’s the best anyone can offer at this point. For what it’s worth, if we were only booking one trip for the rest of the year, we’d choose November 15-21, 2019. That’s based on a number of factors, including weather, Christmas, and crowds. (Note: we picked these dates before Rise of the Resistance’s opening date was announced–we’d now be tempted to choose December 1-7, 2019 in light of that…or just hope for soft openings during our original date range.)
If we were only worried about crowds and didn’t care about Star Wars at all, we’d pick August 20-26, 2019. If we were worried about crowds but did care about Star Wars, we’d choose September 8-14, 2019. No matter which dates you choose, expect Walt Disney World crowds, generally speaking, to get worse later in the year.
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Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our rankings? Which month do you think will be least crowded for the remainder of 2019 at Walt Disney World? Most crowded? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I DESPERATELY need help. My husband and I are going on a once-in-a-lifetime trip this November to celebrate his 30th. We currently have two reservations– one November 10-16, the other November 16-22. The earlier one is a regular room, the later one is a club level room. The crowd calendars are wild- some say the first week would be better, some say the second week. We would love to try to go when it’s less crowded, obviously, but maybe another mitigating factor would be that we are willing to spend the extra money if the club level fast passes are still available (the person I talked to on the phone recently said they might not). As teachers, we have got to let our school know as soon as possible for planning purposes. ANYthing you can say to help us pick one would be so nice. Thank you for all your great posts!
I can see zero reason currently why there would be an appreciable difference between the two weeks.
As for the Club Level room, I wouldn’t bank on those FastPasses–I think there’s the potential for a lot to change with how that works between now and when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens.
Tom,
We booked a room at Boardwalk Villas (using Dave’s rentals) for the first week in December. Now that Disney has announced the opening of Star Wars, do you think the other parks will be significantly affected by crowds? Or will the droves of fans be primarily focused upon DHS?
I think the first week of December should be fine. Nothing out of the ordinary even with Star Wars opening. Schools are still open.
Not to rain on your parade but prepare yourself for exceptionally larger crowds so that when you experience large crowds you will be a little relieved. We went the first week of December last year and the crowds were NOT what we expected, far worse than anticipated. I get it because its a beautiful time to go, but a few crowd calendars we peeked at were way off, predicting a 3 and experiencing an 8 is not ideal. Is it manageable YES but you have to know it will be really busy.
At least they initiated the smoking and stroller restrictions. I think I inhaled enough smoke to potentially develop an addiction and several “cribs on wheels” had my number on them. Ouch!
Plan extra time for transportation if using Disney. Plan to wait in line FOR EVERYTHING. Get a spot for the fireworks early because they were shutting down areas due to capacity. Overall, it is an enjoyable and beautiful time to go. I recommend it to everyone. BUT you have to realize it will be really busy and prepare yourself mentally.
I went the second week this past December and it was fine. Crowd level was what was expected and manageable. We chose the park to visit on certain days, stayed at the AKL and everything was cool. Guess people just stayed over from thanksgiving holiday or thought they would beat the Christmas crowd by showing up early.
I was so bummed about the early opening of GE – my friend and I planned our first Ladies Only trip Sept 7-14 based on expectations of lower crowds. She is not interested in Star Wars, so I was saving that for a couple of years from now with my husband. We were congratulating ourselves and then got blown away by the early opening. But it’s too late to change our plans, so we’ll just have to deal. We will be paying close attention to blog reports the week before, though!
I’m hoping you are correct. I am taking my kids out of school to go for Sept 15-22.
Would totally love the parks to be less crowded.
I hope your correct I am booked for 9/9-9/15. That being said I tried to add an extra day yesterday at all star movies and it was completely booked!
Yeah I tried to shift a few days and Carribean Beach is booked too
Thanks for the detailed and informative suggestions. Excellent explanations for each month and next 18 mos or so.
We gambled and won this time. I scheduled an 8 day trip starting 9-13-19 the day free dining became available. Staying at our favorite place, Pop Century w/free dining plan. (Hoping Star Wars would be open). I recently made my dining reservations and got 8 AM breakfast buffets in all four parks. We are particularly happy with the one at DHS.
I got to thinking about it and these are very valuable reservations. We will have to eat quickly but it will be worth it for the Star Wars experience. Where else can we go and have as much fun. Tom, thanks for your input on the crowds. I have come to trust your judgment. God bless.
Just as a heads up, I think it is very likely the 8am breakfast at DHS will be mooted by 8am park openings and 7am Extra Magic Hours throughout september, like they did for Toy Story Land.
And there is always the possibility that Galaxy’s Edge may have some sort of crowd control in place, for example mandatory reservations.
We’re visiting September 10th-17th so I hope your right. I’m excited I get to see SWGE but I was kind of looking forward to the 1 and 2 crowd levels predicted before the opening date was revealed. Either way, I’ll have an epic week
We are going Sept 2-7 and I am very optimistic It is what it is and I am not going to worrying about crowds until I see them. I would enjoy the extended park hours should the parks get crowded. And definitely she’ll out the money for the After Dark ticketed event for GE.
Thank you for all the updates!
We have a late August trip planned, and we’re delighted by the news that Galaxy’s Edge will open on 8/29! I’m eager for any thoughts on strategy… Do we get in line at 5 AM? Will there be fast passes? We hope to brag to our grandchildren that we were there on the very first day! Just need a game plan.
We will be there on the first day as well. Following 🙂
Nobody knows yet. DLGE has a reservation system in place but I don’t know how long that will last. Apparently, no one will be allowed in GE without a reservation.
Interesting and well thought out as ever, Tom.
Not really replying on the SWGE bit – just see it like SDMT and FOP tbh. The point I wanted to make was that depending on your preference for touring, crowd calendars are largely obsolete now. Purely a personal view but if you’re mainly interested in wait times – when you visit makes little difference. Quiet days/weeks/months in the parks mean Disney will reduce hours, reduce ride operating times within those reduced hours (Dinosaur now opens at 0930 and closes 30 minutes before park close) and more significantly alter ride capacity to the MPWT/A. Maximum Permitted Wait Time per Attraction. So BTMRR or SM will be operating with only 1 side open to keep staffing down. This is of course a factor of now having a 5 years worth of magic data to plan with. If you want less busy parks then there is an argument for crowd calendars but even then there impact is limited. Can you really tell a 7 from 8? It’s a bit like the weather – it’s a 6 but feels like an 8. And that “feels like” depends on a ton of factors like weather the day before, weather forecast, attractions out of use etc. etc.
Keep up the good work Tom! Would love to see a “Drop the mic” between you and Josh!
“Affect” park hours – yes I expect the Studios to be altering their hours. It will be interesting to see if that becomes a permanent change seeing that Studios traditionally closed earlier than Magic Kingdom and EPCOT Center.
“Either way, our expectation is that this summer will be less busy than last. The question is whether it’ll be by enough to offset the weather and seasonal pricing.”
This was in the June section. Can someone explain what the poster meant by this? I find the last sentence a little confusing. Thanks.
I think he meant that in the “plus” column, the crowds should be even lower this Summer (pre-Galaxy’s Edge), but in the “minus” column is the extreme heat/humidity of the Summer and Peak season pricing.
So the smaller crowds could make a visit more enticing if you don’t mind the heat and paying a little more!
I had called Disney for a question & while on the phone, I did ask if people are moving trips from July (our vacation date) to September for Star Wars. I was told that yes, some are, but they are seeing some move from September to June/July to avoid the crowds. My fingers are crossed that we see less crowds in July.
We r going Sept 23 I hope it will not be to crazy it’s our first time going my anniversary and my son’s birthday so it’s going to be insane lol
I appreciate your articles so much, thanks! We are going in the middle of the storm, August 26th-August 31st. We plan to see Toy Story Land for the first time and hopefully Mickeys train ride on our arrival day, hoping HS will be easier to navigate before the 29th. If we wanted to brave the crowds the simply walk through GE without riding the ride, which day would you shoot for, Friday the 30th or Saturday the 31st? We are staying on property, and can only assume they will have early morning magic hours at HS the 29th, 30th, and 31st.
Man, I’m such a planner (and thorough enjoy it) so having so much up in the air is just the worst. I just keep telling myself it’ll be fine and I’m sure it will.
Is the free dining still offered?
No, it was moved up this year, most likely because of GE. It usually becomes available to book early January through February for stays Aug through December except the holiday weeks. This year was June though September dates.
DL will have reservations just to walk through GE. I’m not sure how long that will last but no reservation, no entrance into the land at all. The entrance(s) will be monitored to make sure that only those with reservations enter. Only time will tell how WDW will handle it.
What’s your prediction about when we’ll see hard ticketed events for GE, like after hours? I would shell out for that. Jim Hill predicted it might be awhile as operations would need as much time as possible after park closing for maintenance and working out kinks. Wagers?
We’re going the first week in november. Hoping it’s not too crazy!
We’re going the second week; same hopes here! Fingers crossed!!
I just moved my reservation from your favorite week in Nov. to last week in October after seeing Touringplans.com’s crowd calendar push their crowd estimates way up for the Nov. 15-22 period. At this point, who knows….but I found on our last trip to Disney that touring plans was very helpful and accurate, so I am taking their prognostications into account.
Will be there June 28-July 5 and December 22-Jan 1. I expect the normal heavy crowds of holidays both trips.
We booked a stay beginning Dec 3rd, our traditional week has been the weekend after Thanksgiving starting on Saturday, It has progressed from 2-3 to 5-7 crowd numbers, however most of the overcrowding has been from the South American tourist/vacation season! Wondering if this will subside some this year. Hoping GE will scare off a good bit.