2019 Disney World Crowd Predictions: When to Go & Avoiding Star Wars Land Lines
Walt Disney World’s early opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge has upended crowd calendars, upsetting many vacation planners in the process. Here we’ll offer predictions for the best and worst months to visit for the remainder of 2019, which we’ve revised following the announced date for Rise of the Resistance. At the end, we’ll also pick three weeks we’d visit. (Last updated July 13, 2019.)
Initially, I was going to simply update our 2019 Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World post to account for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. However, that post takes a more holistic approach to rankings based upon weather, special events, entertainment, and more. Crowds are just one factor used to rank the months.
Judging by recent comments, many of you are primarily concerned with crowds this year, and are wanting to find time for a trip when Walt Disney World is not packed. To that end, we’re offering the below rankings on the sole basis of our Walt Disney World crowd predictions…
Before we dig into the Walt Disney World crowd ‘calendar’ for 2019, some caveats are in order. First, these are our best guesses. Literally no one has perfect foresight as to what Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will bring with it. If someone claims to be able to precisely forecast Walt Disney World crowd levels post Star Wars land’s opening, you should be highly skeptical.
Even DisneyWorld.com has a warning at the top of its ticket page stating, “access to the park, land and experiences may be restricted or unavailable depending on guest demand and other factors” as if to say, we don’t know how busy it’ll be, but prepare for the worst.
Second, there will be good days in bad months and vice-a-versa. The reason I’m hesitant to make more granular predictions is because it’s really difficult to do so with a high degree of accuracy. Extraneous variables like weather (good or bad) can impact wait times, as can Disney’s manipulation of attraction capacity, or even a large conference being held on-site. Moreover, Disney could release new discounts, promotions, or limited-time entertainment offerings to lure guests into the parks.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that the Walt Disney World crowd calendar game is a far from precise science, and that’s especially true for 2019 as we are likely to experience a summer lull in the lead-up to Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, followed by who-knows-what in the aftermath.
Nevertheless, we’re doing our best with these rankings, and offering some explanation as to why we feel the way we do about each month. Please note that these rankings are only applicable for the remainder of 2019, so do not rely on them for 2020…
6. December – This is not exactly a bold prediction, especially now that Disney has announced the Opening Date for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. This is the flagship attraction of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, and many fans undoubtedly will be waiting until its debut to visit. Accordingly, we now expect December to be the busiest month of 2019–by a long shot.
Aside from a few pockets early in the month, December has become one of the busier months of the year, irrespective of Star Wars Land. People love seeing the parks decked out for the holidays, the temperate weather, and Christmas events. For 2019, expect that to be compounded by those who postponed trips last year, waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge to open. We would anticipate this demographic to disproportionately favor December.
5. November – Pretty much the same story here. Christmas kicks off at Walt Disney World in early November, and it starts drawing people the week before Thanksgiving through the end of the month.
If you’re looking for a “sweet spot,” we’d recommend aiming for around November 10-22, 2019. This should be the best mix of nice weather, lower crowds, Christmas decorations, and just maybe Rise of the Resistance having soft openings towards the end of that timeframe. Any dates after November 22, 2019 are likely to see increasingly elevated Thanksgiving crowds.
4. October – This month went from being one of the best options to one of the worst in the span of only a few years. Last year, there was a bit of a lull in October, but it was still pretty far from off-season.
We’d again expect October to be a very busy month thanks to conventions, school breaks, and tourists who want to double-dip on Star Wars Land and Halloween.
3. July – The likelihood of a pre-Star Wars slump this summer is a real one, and the main reason we expect June and July to be less busy than last year.
Promotions have already been released to entice people to visit in July, with Free Dining beginning immediately after the Independence Day holiday. We predict that this won’t be enough to offset those sitting out this summer, making July a slightly better option.
2. August – If you don’t want to gamble on our advice below–and frankly, we don’t blame you since these are uncharted waters–then late August will be your best and safest option, so long as you’re out a few days before Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. There’s also the potential for Soft Openings of Star Wars Land in late August.
That window will offer the best combination of schools going back into session, poor weather discouraging others from visiting, and a lack of anyone who is waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Those two weeks or so have the potential to be the absolute least busy of the year, but when averaged with the beginning of the month and last few days, we’re still giving the edge to September.
1. September – To be entirely honest with you, predicting September will be the best month to visit Walt Disney World in 2019 is the pretext for this entire article. Our Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge Opening Date Announcement post has over 200 comments; going through those, many are from people who planned September trips and are freaking out about crowds.
We made this ‘September will be best’ prediction back when the opening date for Galaxy’s Edge was announced, and most readers feared the worst, and were skeptical of our prediction. If you’ve read our Why Are Star Wars Land Crowds So Low? post, which is based upon the first month-plus of the land being open at Disneyland, this is exactly the scenario that has played out there. Of course, Walt Disney World is a totally different beast, but we still think there’s good reason to not expect the absolute worst.
There’s no doubt September 2019 will be more crowded than last September. There are a couple questions that should be asked. First, how crowded will it be as compared to last year? Second, how crowded will September 2019 be as compared to October 2019 and pretty much forever beyond?
It’s tough to answer the first question with any degree of certainty (although Walt Disney World not raising ticket prices for September 2019 does say something about their internal forecasts). As to the second question, we’re moderately confident that September 2019 will be better than pretty much any month between now and September 2020.
My reasons for picking September as the least-crowded month are three-fold. First, history. September has been by far the least crowded month for the last several years, if not longer. Last September the parks were veritable ghost towns on some days, and it was consistently the least busy we’ve seen Magic Kingdom in years.
Second, the main factors causing September to be uncrowded–school schedules and weather–aren’t impacted by the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Unless a national holiday is declared for the opening of Star Wars land–and with Disney’s power, perhaps that isn’t entirely outside the realm of possibilities–most schools are going to be in session during the entirety of September. For a lot of people, September is simply an undesirable month to visit, and that’s true irrespective of Star Wars.
Finally, those planning for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge might be inclined to avoid September as it’s the immediate aftermath of the opening and because the flagship Rise of the Resistance attraction won’t be open then. Based on the above, ‘immediate aftermath’ reasoning is probably fallacious, but many people will no doubt have that perception, thinking it’s a savvy move to “wait out” the crowds until December.
On the other hand, waiting for the whole land to open certainly isn’t a terrible idea and there are no doubt a decent number of people who will do that. Those guests will be inclined to roll the dice that December (when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge was originally rumored to open) is the safer bet.
I would anticipate appreciably larger crowds beginning in October and crescendoing in December. In large part, this is simply the converse of the above points. Both annual and first-time visitors favor these months, for a variety of reasons ranging from school schedules to weather to other seasonal offerings.
With both Pandora and Toy Story Land, some of the worst waits of the year were not experienced in the few weeks after the lands opened, but in the October to December months. Aside from those who want to say they did it “first” on opening weekend, a good segment of the Disney fanbase (and casual visitors) are perfectly willing to wait a few months and time their visit for new offerings when it’s more convenient for them, holidays are being celebrated, weather is nicer, and the opening surge has subsided (except, again, this last one is erroneous reasoning).
Again, all of these are merely our predictions–but that’s the best anyone can offer at this point. For what it’s worth, if we were only booking one trip for the rest of the year, we’d choose November 15-21, 2019. That’s based on a number of factors, including weather, Christmas, and crowds. (Note: we picked these dates before Rise of the Resistance’s opening date was announced–we’d now be tempted to choose December 1-7, 2019 in light of that…or just hope for soft openings during our original date range.)
If we were only worried about crowds and didn’t care about Star Wars at all, we’d pick August 20-26, 2019. If we were worried about crowds but did care about Star Wars, we’d choose September 8-14, 2019. No matter which dates you choose, expect Walt Disney World crowds, generally speaking, to get worse later in the year.
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Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our rankings? Which month do you think will be least crowded for the remainder of 2019 at Walt Disney World? Most crowded? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
My significant other and I are headed down from 9/11 – 9/15 for my #best50bdayever!!!! I was concerned at first as well, but after reading this article and thinking about it, I’m still very excited to go. If we get to see GE awesome. If not, no big deal. We were actually planning on skipping HS in the first place.
So now the question becomes how will the Star War crowd bump effect park hours? Do we think the Studios will stay open until 11 or 12 to accommodate more guests, or will the still shrink to off peak hours? How will this translate to other events- will Hoop De Doo have normal one show a night schedule or stick with the summer time 3 show schedule?
So I planned a surprise Christmas trip to Disney World last year. It was a Xmas gift to my husband plus a bucket list cross off. I picked 2018 because of the looming Galaxy Edge. I know it’s going to be pure chaos, so I wanted to go before it opened and visit again once it had been open a few years. Well 5 days before our flight my husband was in a motocross accident and broke both his legs. So because Disney is the greatest company in the world they changed our booking to the same dates but now Xmas/NYE 2019. So we will be in the middle of the madness which is Galaxy Edge. Luckily it is just me and my husband, we are a DINK family and we are very easy breezy. I really think you have to go in with a very flexible attitude, otherwise it’s going to be a very stressful and not very fun trip. Wish us luck!
You have 3 other parks to choose from and could try off time of day for HS. What were your dates in December. First two weeks are great, but closer to Christmas, it would not have mattered what year you chose. It would have been crowded either way.
When Galaxy’s Edge does open, do you think the crowds will be primarily in Hollywood Studios or throughout the world?
Not many people do a one or two day trip so I’d say definitely the entire parks are going to see a bit of a bump and be busier
We’ve booked a 9/6 to 9/14 trip months ago thinking it would be the calm before the storm. This is the first time my wife and i are going alone without the kids and wanted to pick a time more laid back (as possible that is). Your post puts me more at ease. To say i was shocked when i heard the opening annpuncement is an understatement.
My bf and I booked a bounceback offer September 2018 for the first week of Dec this year (thanks to you!) We booked it fully expecting the parks would be bonkers, but glad to read your voice of reason. Even though December is ranked so low, a lot of your points are good. After all the price increases since then, we figure we might as well keep it because it’s the cheapest we will ever get into the parks again! And a chance to enter Star Wars land and scope out the blue milk bar is pretty much enough of a novelty for us.
Hi, Tom…Thanks for this post. What are your thoughts about how to plan your trip if going 8/31-9/7 (our current dates) in terms of likelihood that DHS will close and when to attempt DHS (if avoiding SWGE)? Also, what are the chances there will be a second round of free dining in Nov (pretty low, I suspect)?
I know even you say it’s foolish to rely on crowd calendars, but this gave me so much peace of mind for our early September trip – haha! We planned for the first week of September based off of previous crowds and the recommendation of our travel agent (and hoping to avoid Galaxy’s Edge). When the news broke I was so upset but my husband insists that most visitors will probably wait for the land to be completed. I’m hoping you both are right and our trip won’t be a total overcrowded nightmare!
I’m guessing there will be some delay before the *full* impact of SW:GE opening hits (there will obviously be *some* impact right away) because by the time the opening date was announced, a lot of people had already planned any trips for this fall– as your “September freakout” comments on the announcement post revealed. People rushing to book Star Wars trips who hadn’t already planned one are likely to end up later in the year, or even into early 2020. That’s just my guess based on how far ahead I plan major travel, but while I may be unusual I don’t think I’m completely unique either. And there may be an element of SW:GE visitors who choose to plan for some time after the opening, precisely in hopes of avoiding the worst crowds. The percentage of fans so dedicated they simply MUST be there on opening day or feel like they’ve failed the fandom must be (relatively) small.
I’ve got a short trip planned for the first week of December and I’m more concerned with those crowds than I would be with September, as your article points out. Fortunately, it’s a trip specifically to see the Christmas decorations and I plan to spend more time following the self-guided tour of resort decorations than I do visiting the parks, so I should be able to edge around whatever crowds have materialized by then.
Any thoughts on first week of October???? It’s not a school holiday and still pretty hot….. I’m worried it will be awful crowded!
Ty!
I’d like to know exactly the same 😉
Me too!!
Same here, planing a trip the overlaps the last week of September, through the 5th of October
That’s us as well. Fingers crossed for all of us! Planning to get up early and focus on enjoying the experience with my family.
I have been a long time fan of Disney and have visited multiple times. My last visit in 2018 was a major disappointment. The parks were way too crowded where we could not enjoy any of them. The lines for food and rides are atrocious. Unfortunately I have no desire to return anytime soon unless Disney creates a way to control the number of guests allowed in the parks each day. The magic is definitely gone and faded away. The cast was rude in many locations and the prices of everything have gone up while the quality of the food and products has gone down. I dont think Walt would be happy with the fact that greed has replaced the importance of being the happiest place on earth where people have to go into debt to afford a visit. I miss the magic.
Dawn: I could have written this post. My husband and I have decided that Disney in it’s present form, is not for us anymore. We have gone once a year for a while and are known as “the Disney fanatics” to friends and family. Not anymore.
It’s kind of freeing to let go of Disney and go other places. We are going out West to Arizona and California next, with a possible day at DL. Can’t wait to see the National Parks and other places.
At least we got to go to WDW before the madness.
This article seriously makes me feel better about my 9/14-9/21 trip. I feel your perspective is more of a calm, rational, thoroughly thought out insight, instead of the knee-jerk reactions of other blogs I’ve read. A lot of people jumped on the “Disney-will-be-absolute-anarchy” mind set and it scared a lot of people booked for September (ME). I am not a Star Wars fan and have no use for that particular land. My sole purpose for visiting HS this trip is Toy Story land for my 4 year old. (Ok, me too…..) I check the WDW website daily for the release of Early Morning Magic hours into Sept. for TSL. They stop right at 8/28 (insert eyeroll here) Is it possible that Disney will have separate lines or entrances for those specifically wanting Galaxy’s Edge? I understand crowds and lines are a fact of life at any Disney park but let’s be real here…..it would really stink to be caught up in a line when 95% of the people in it are ONLY making a run for GE.
I hope you’re right about September, we are going the third week. Fingers crossed. This trip has been a long time coming.
I’m going November 14-21, 2019. Hoping we still have lower crowds!! That is mostly what we are concerned about.
I will arrive on Sep 28 and stay until October 9. Do you think the first week will already be crowded?
We will be there the same time as you. Hoping the October crowds hit after we have left.
Thanks Tom.
We are going Nov 12-17. You said it would be the best week, so if its not I want my money back :-).
We booked the trip well in advance of all this. I am trying to be optimistic that it won’t be that bad. The land itself will be chaotic, but hopefully it doesn’t crush all the parks. As for the land itself hopefully they add morning magic hours everyday or something like that. I still think with a solid plan of attack the other parks will be enjoyable. Here’s hoping.
We have a trip booked august 25-31 with Free Dining, so Star Wars Land opening day (the thing I was trying to avoid) is right in the middle of our trip- SURPRISE! I was hesitant to book in the first place because we’ve been in September before and our trip was delayed 2 days because of a hurricane and the heat and humidity when we finally go there were like whoa. What pushed me to book was the data I had available all pointed to a really slow week. I may have a problem, but I like to look at the My Disney Experience app a few times a month to see for myself how the crowds are throughout the year (I even cross reference the weather….I definitely have a problem). Last year, the last week in August saw really low wait times, even lower than the first few weeks of September. And Free Dining at most resorts in a standard room was still available a week before the promo ended (completely unheard of and indicative of really low crowds OR Disney trying to increase their occupancy due to projected low crowds by releasing more rooms under the promo). I was super excited. Then there was THE announcement…..I get it, it is a really good decision on Disney’s part to take what was going to be their lowest attendance in history (my estimate based on room and free dining availability coupled with data from years past) and turn it into one of their busiest times. I’m Just sad about it 🙁 My family and I hate crowds and waiting in lines…especially for things like food, bathrooms, and buses…..in the sweltering heat. Silver lining, I had already booked dining, and luckily we will be nowhere near Hollywood Studios or Epcot (probably the primary spillover park when HS is at capacity?) on the 29th and 30th! Thank you for your site! It’s my favorite for Disney reviews and advice.
I completely agree with you!! I had booked our first family vacation that exact same week, believing the same thing about missing Galaxies Edge, and was so disappointed with the announcement. But, I am not changing my plans, and made a couple of adjustments to my dining plans, and I plan on having an amazing time!
We are going November 29-Dec 4. What do you think about the crowds at this time? Hoping Star Wars second opening is after first week of December
My comment about Nov 7th is in response to RC about the Christmas Parties.
Also, a little tidbit for everyone. Every year about 30% of locals in and around New Orleans head to Disney for the week of Mardi Gras 1. Because our own city is filled with tourists 2. There is a massive High School Cheer/Dance competition there that same week that many schools in our region take part it in.
For 2020 Mardi Gras is Feb 25th, you can bet that crowds will be crazy that week, and the week before. I went every year in high school and it was always insane.
Yay! We’re booked for the end of September on the tail end of Free Dining. This seems to be a good time of year for us – early September we’ve always gotten monsoon rains.