2019 Disney World Crowd Predictions: When to Go & Avoiding Star Wars Land Lines
Walt Disney World’s early opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge has upended crowd calendars, upsetting many vacation planners in the process. Here we’ll offer predictions for the best and worst months to visit for the remainder of 2019, which we’ve revised following the announced date for Rise of the Resistance. At the end, we’ll also pick three weeks we’d visit. (Last updated July 13, 2019.)
Initially, I was going to simply update our 2019 Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World post to account for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. However, that post takes a more holistic approach to rankings based upon weather, special events, entertainment, and more. Crowds are just one factor used to rank the months.
Judging by recent comments, many of you are primarily concerned with crowds this year, and are wanting to find time for a trip when Walt Disney World is not packed. To that end, we’re offering the below rankings on the sole basis of our Walt Disney World crowd predictions…
Before we dig into the Walt Disney World crowd ‘calendar’ for 2019, some caveats are in order. First, these are our best guesses. Literally no one has perfect foresight as to what Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will bring with it. If someone claims to be able to precisely forecast Walt Disney World crowd levels post Star Wars land’s opening, you should be highly skeptical.
Even DisneyWorld.com has a warning at the top of its ticket page stating, “access to the park, land and experiences may be restricted or unavailable depending on guest demand and other factors” as if to say, we don’t know how busy it’ll be, but prepare for the worst.
Second, there will be good days in bad months and vice-a-versa. The reason I’m hesitant to make more granular predictions is because it’s really difficult to do so with a high degree of accuracy. Extraneous variables like weather (good or bad) can impact wait times, as can Disney’s manipulation of attraction capacity, or even a large conference being held on-site. Moreover, Disney could release new discounts, promotions, or limited-time entertainment offerings to lure guests into the parks.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that the Walt Disney World crowd calendar game is a far from precise science, and that’s especially true for 2019 as we are likely to experience a summer lull in the lead-up to Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, followed by who-knows-what in the aftermath.
Nevertheless, we’re doing our best with these rankings, and offering some explanation as to why we feel the way we do about each month. Please note that these rankings are only applicable for the remainder of 2019, so do not rely on them for 2020…
6. December – This is not exactly a bold prediction, especially now that Disney has announced the Opening Date for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. This is the flagship attraction of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, and many fans undoubtedly will be waiting until its debut to visit. Accordingly, we now expect December to be the busiest month of 2019–by a long shot.
Aside from a few pockets early in the month, December has become one of the busier months of the year, irrespective of Star Wars Land. People love seeing the parks decked out for the holidays, the temperate weather, and Christmas events. For 2019, expect that to be compounded by those who postponed trips last year, waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge to open. We would anticipate this demographic to disproportionately favor December.
5. November – Pretty much the same story here. Christmas kicks off at Walt Disney World in early November, and it starts drawing people the week before Thanksgiving through the end of the month.
If you’re looking for a “sweet spot,” we’d recommend aiming for around November 10-22, 2019. This should be the best mix of nice weather, lower crowds, Christmas decorations, and just maybe Rise of the Resistance having soft openings towards the end of that timeframe. Any dates after November 22, 2019 are likely to see increasingly elevated Thanksgiving crowds.
4. October – This month went from being one of the best options to one of the worst in the span of only a few years. Last year, there was a bit of a lull in October, but it was still pretty far from off-season.
We’d again expect October to be a very busy month thanks to conventions, school breaks, and tourists who want to double-dip on Star Wars Land and Halloween.
3. July – The likelihood of a pre-Star Wars slump this summer is a real one, and the main reason we expect June and July to be less busy than last year.
Promotions have already been released to entice people to visit in July, with Free Dining beginning immediately after the Independence Day holiday. We predict that this won’t be enough to offset those sitting out this summer, making July a slightly better option.
2. August – If you don’t want to gamble on our advice below–and frankly, we don’t blame you since these are uncharted waters–then late August will be your best and safest option, so long as you’re out a few days before Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. There’s also the potential for Soft Openings of Star Wars Land in late August.
That window will offer the best combination of schools going back into session, poor weather discouraging others from visiting, and a lack of anyone who is waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Those two weeks or so have the potential to be the absolute least busy of the year, but when averaged with the beginning of the month and last few days, we’re still giving the edge to September.
1. September – To be entirely honest with you, predicting September will be the best month to visit Walt Disney World in 2019 is the pretext for this entire article. Our Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge Opening Date Announcement post has over 200 comments; going through those, many are from people who planned September trips and are freaking out about crowds.
We made this ‘September will be best’ prediction back when the opening date for Galaxy’s Edge was announced, and most readers feared the worst, and were skeptical of our prediction. If you’ve read our Why Are Star Wars Land Crowds So Low? post, which is based upon the first month-plus of the land being open at Disneyland, this is exactly the scenario that has played out there. Of course, Walt Disney World is a totally different beast, but we still think there’s good reason to not expect the absolute worst.
There’s no doubt September 2019 will be more crowded than last September. There are a couple questions that should be asked. First, how crowded will it be as compared to last year? Second, how crowded will September 2019 be as compared to October 2019 and pretty much forever beyond?
It’s tough to answer the first question with any degree of certainty (although Walt Disney World not raising ticket prices for September 2019 does say something about their internal forecasts). As to the second question, we’re moderately confident that September 2019 will be better than pretty much any month between now and September 2020.
My reasons for picking September as the least-crowded month are three-fold. First, history. September has been by far the least crowded month for the last several years, if not longer. Last September the parks were veritable ghost towns on some days, and it was consistently the least busy we’ve seen Magic Kingdom in years.
Second, the main factors causing September to be uncrowded–school schedules and weather–aren’t impacted by the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Unless a national holiday is declared for the opening of Star Wars land–and with Disney’s power, perhaps that isn’t entirely outside the realm of possibilities–most schools are going to be in session during the entirety of September. For a lot of people, September is simply an undesirable month to visit, and that’s true irrespective of Star Wars.
Finally, those planning for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge might be inclined to avoid September as it’s the immediate aftermath of the opening and because the flagship Rise of the Resistance attraction won’t be open then. Based on the above, ‘immediate aftermath’ reasoning is probably fallacious, but many people will no doubt have that perception, thinking it’s a savvy move to “wait out” the crowds until December.
On the other hand, waiting for the whole land to open certainly isn’t a terrible idea and there are no doubt a decent number of people who will do that. Those guests will be inclined to roll the dice that December (when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge was originally rumored to open) is the safer bet.
I would anticipate appreciably larger crowds beginning in October and crescendoing in December. In large part, this is simply the converse of the above points. Both annual and first-time visitors favor these months, for a variety of reasons ranging from school schedules to weather to other seasonal offerings.
With both Pandora and Toy Story Land, some of the worst waits of the year were not experienced in the few weeks after the lands opened, but in the October to December months. Aside from those who want to say they did it “first” on opening weekend, a good segment of the Disney fanbase (and casual visitors) are perfectly willing to wait a few months and time their visit for new offerings when it’s more convenient for them, holidays are being celebrated, weather is nicer, and the opening surge has subsided (except, again, this last one is erroneous reasoning).
Again, all of these are merely our predictions–but that’s the best anyone can offer at this point. For what it’s worth, if we were only booking one trip for the rest of the year, we’d choose November 15-21, 2019. That’s based on a number of factors, including weather, Christmas, and crowds. (Note: we picked these dates before Rise of the Resistance’s opening date was announced–we’d now be tempted to choose December 1-7, 2019 in light of that…or just hope for soft openings during our original date range.)
If we were only worried about crowds and didn’t care about Star Wars at all, we’d pick August 20-26, 2019. If we were worried about crowds but did care about Star Wars, we’d choose September 8-14, 2019. No matter which dates you choose, expect Walt Disney World crowds, generally speaking, to get worse later in the year.
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Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our rankings? Which month do you think will be least crowded for the remainder of 2019 at Walt Disney World? Most crowded? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We went to WDW in December. The crowds in Toy Story Land were insane. We went in twice, both times with fastpasses. We did the ride and left the area. It was so crowded you really couldn’t appreciate the new land. You had to pay attention to where you were walking because of the amount of people. We did stop at the entrance and tried to get a good look around from there but that was all. I am not even sure where Woody’s lunchbox is located, I didn’tsee it with the crowds. We did Toy Story Mania and Slinky Dog Dash with our fastpasses. People were lined up for the rides, and taking up any available spot to sit. We basically walked down the middle surrounded by tons of people. Really unable to get the feeling we were toy size. If that is what it will be like in Galaxys Edge for the next several years, count this Star Wars family out. We are excited to see it but want to enjoy it too. Feeling rushed and shoved around with the crowds just to get on a ride and not really be able to experience anything else is not worth it.
You have somewhat put my mind at ease as I too booked in January (as soon as the free dining was announced) for September 24-October1 thinking we would miss the Star Wars hoopla. Then much to my surprise, it opens less than a month before our planned trip. Not that big of a fan that I want to fight the crowds and was worried about the old adage – a rising tide lifts all boats – and every park would be packed! I am keeping my fingers crossed you are correct in your predictions! Now my new worry is everyone reads your blog and decides to go in September!!!
When I went in 2017 I believe the parties started the weekend following Halloween. So, in this case, Thursday, November 7th is my best guess
Thanks for this…. renting DVC points end of October….guess I will need lots of patience and will go with the flow (more like a Tsunami)
Please do a similar story on Disneyland. Thanks
I have to say when I first learned of Star Wars ready ahead of schedule I was freaking out too. We are going from 4-13 Sept. And love Star Wars but I am anticipating crowds. My boyfriend pointed out school schedules and people not wanting to pull their kids in the beginning. He had a point. Regardless, we will still be going. There are three other parks. The Food & Wine feast will be going at Epcot and we have tickets to Universal as well. Which will have the new Harry Potter ride, “Hagrids Motorbike.” So what we miss this year we will see next year.
We have our trip planned for August 17th-22 this summer. It was planned before the release of the Star Wars information about opening and while I have a disappointed hubby and son, I am hopful that our trip will be less crowded..we’ve done this before in both July and August so I am well prepared for the heat, humidity and rain showers..My family is just excited to go back!
My wife and I are novices at this.
We booked a trip for Sept. 14th to the 20th recently, and missed the free dining. Is their a chance that Disney will offer free dining in the future for those dates?
Frank
Highly unlikely for this year. Especially now with Star Wars opening.
there’s a chance of not seeing free dining for the foreseeable future to be honest, even during the traditional times…
Tom made my day with this sentence…
“If we were only worried about crowds and didn’t care about Star Wars at all, we’d pick August 20-26, 2019.”
That is us and that is when our trip is planned! I hope Tom is right!
Thank you, thank you, thank you for this. I have been freaking out about our late September trip with my three young kids, but I trust your expertise so much that this has made me feel a little bit better (even if it’s still just an opinion)!
I think the next full 1-2 years the crowds are going to be massive. I think every Star Wars nerd globally has been waiting and saving for this land to open. I think 30 something nerds living in their parents basement will ban together and share rooms with 6 other nerds to make it affordable. Unfortunately for them they are going to have to drag their behinds out of bed super early in the morning if they want to even get a glimpse of this land. I think HWS will hit capacity each day, most days by 12PM. There will be scores of angry people who will not be able to even get into the park. These crowds that can not get into the park will spill over into the other parks and fill them up as well. And if SWGE land is as cramped as ToyStory land I predict a miserable experience for anyone visiting the new land. I couldnt get out of Toy Story land fast enough when I visited. It is super cramped and frankly felt cheap, thrown together and poorly thought out. Star Wars Land should have been its own park. There is so much content that it could easily been off on its own. This is another tactic by Disney to beat the Star Wars horse dead and as cheaply as they can suck every available penny they can out of guest!
As much as I love the Star Wars franchise and Disney, I hate the fact that this coming!
While deep down I agree that it is going to be chaotic crowds, I’m starting to wonder if the hoards of people who otherwise wouldn’t be going to disney (the nerd scenario as you suggested) may not be as bad as most people are expecting.. Primarily because I’m wondering if all the hassle for a tiny sliver of a theme park worth it? LIke you said, this isn’t a dedicated park. It’s really just a piece of one..
i agree it’s going to be very crowded, but the land is the size of pandora, and both harry potter parks put together. not the same size as toy story by a longshot.
We already have rooms booked for November 9-16. Should we anticipate it being awful?
This is a great time to go. We went then and very few crowds. Also September and October are hurricane months.
It’s a wonderful time of year to go! We are booked November 12th to 22nd this year. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what the crowds will be like! Such a tough thing to predict! If we get to see Galaxy’s Edge, great, if not, we’ll see it next visit!
We’re booked November 13-23rd this year at Boardwalk! I’m prepared for insane crowds, but hoping it will be a tad calmer since it’s just before Thanksgiving week. Reeeeeally hoping Rise of the Resistance will be ready when we go, but if not we’ll be back next year for sure!
I think Tom’s predictions are as accurate as they can be given the criteria he’s used. Of course we could all be surprised when SWGE is open. We will be going to DLR on November 9th, and we may just hit that sweet spot…here’s hoping!
I like your predictions, they seem most likely…given all the factors you’ve mentioned. We shall see won’t we. What fun!
What do you think of February. Specifically president’s week?
You mention poor weather preventing people from visiting in August. How poor is the weather that time of year? We don’t mind hot, as we like to spend a lot of time at the pool. We would want to avoid rain, though! We were originally planning to visit late September and were ready to book – but then the announcement was made and we have been hesitant to move forward until we had more info on crowd predictions. Thank you!
We were there August 11-24 last summer. We’re from Quebec and aren’t used to those hot temperature. But guess what, we survived and are even coming back this year on July 30.
We didn’t have much rain. We had one evening where a big thunderstorm hit. We were dining at Fort Wilderness and we’re supposed to go back to MK. We had our ponchos, but we’re soaked anyway! People we’re leaving the park at like 7pm. We bought coffees at Starbucks and chocolate for the kids. We had a great time doing several attractions with next to no wait time! The rain stopped and we had a really nice viewing spot for the fireworks!
We were there last August (mid to end of the month). The heat and humidity were higher than normal per resort cast members. We went to the parks at rope drop, went back to the room for lunch and nap or pool, and went back to the park in the evening. It was manageable that way, we missed the peak heat and peak crowds. We have 3 little ones so it was our plan all along but after feeling the swampy weather, it would be smart for anyone. We are not deterred. We are going back the same-ish time this year (pre-Star Wars opening).
I’ve been there the last week of Sept and it was over 90 degrees every day. We also missed a hurricane by about 3 days. I think if you’re choosing between Aug and Sept, the weather is probably a wash. It’s going to be hot both months and anytime it’s that hot in Florida there’s a chance of rain. Not to mention, both are in hurricane season so you could always get rain from that. But when we were there in Sept it didn’t rain a drop, so there’s that lol. I would choose between the two based on other considerations and not weather. I hope this helps.
Hey Tom – what do you think about crowds late January 2020 with a possible first week of Feb? that’s when we’ve scheduled our trip, after the kids go back to school. Would love to know what you think on that crowd wise.
Crowds have been “abnormally” bad the last two years during January and February, but it’s unclear to what degree that’s increased attendance, and to what degree it’s Walt Disney World reducing staff and ride capacity.
With a bunch of stuff still being new and hot next Jan/Feb, it’s hard to see WDW using the same reduced capacity ploy. At least, I’d hope not. Nevertheless, I’d still expect at least moderate crowds. January and February are no longer the ghost towns they once were.
So…less busy than November/December, but more busy than September or even this summer.
This makes me very happy since I hesitantly booked in July this year. I was worried about the crowds but now I am hopeful it may be less crowded if people wait to go when Star Wars opens
I am hoping you are right! I booked for September 9-15th in hopes of missing the Star Wars hoopla completely, but I am now excited to see it. My favorite time to go is in January-February when it’s slow and cool.
I think your in for a very rude awakening, I think the Star War Geeks will come out of the wood work, and you chances of actually seeing the Star War attractions will be slim and none, they are not doing Fast Passes because of fear from the angry mobs.
We have a Nov. 30th to Dec. 7th trip planned in hopes that a second wave of free dining will be released and praying the 2nd phase of star wars dosent open. This is the time of year we always go. What do you think about that week as far as crowds go?
some of the crowd experts are figuring disney is using disneyland’s GE as the model for what they will do for crowds in florida. disneyland is a unique situation due to the layout, but they don’t think wdw will be a free for all. for the safety of cast members and guests, they simply can’t. obviously nothing confirmed, but they are figuring from their years of doing this very thing, that disney may still implement some sort of reservation system for HS, or timed wristbands, or even separate lines to enter the park (which in my opinion would be the best option). then people who don’t want to stand in line for GE can still see the rest of the park. there are still 3 months after the opening of GE in CA that they can announce the plan for wdw. in the official parks blog post announcing the opening dates, they leave everything open with a phrase “reservations will not be required at this time” saying “At this time” leaves a lot open to the imagination. i have no doubt it will be busy, but i hope it will be controlled chaos.
If I’m a Star Wars nerd (and I am), I’d rather go to Disneyland and get the full experience rather than half the land open in Disney World in September. Disney World is doing a phased opening for Star Wars.
to the two comments above, disney won’t be doing another window of free dining. i think the industry would be floored. they do free dining during slow times, and the window you’re talking is not a slow time.
and disneyland is opening the same single ride that wdw is. rise of the resistance is behind schedule and not opening at either park. so no one is going to get “the full experience” anywhere at first.
Does anyone have any idea when christmas tickets will be going on sale? Also would anyone have a predicted date for the first party?