How Crowded Will Disney World Be After Reopening?
“How bad will crowds be when Walt Disney World’s parks reopen?” and “which months will be busiest when WDW reopens?” are two common reader questions right now. Many readers are understandably anxious about crowds when rebooking vacations, and we’ll attempt to answer here based on history and our expectations.
This is an ongoing series, coming in response to feedback and concerns raised in response to our When Will Walt Disney World Reopen? post. We’ve also tackled the question of Will Huge Discounts be Offered When WDW Reopens? and soon will address operational modifications. (We’ll also revisit the first question.)
A lot of this is speculative, dependent upon how the next couple of months play out and what the national mood is going forward. While we’re comfortable discussing generalized trends and possibilities, it would be incredibly premature to offer numerical crowd levels or an update to our 2020 Crowd Calendars for Walt Disney World. We’ll try to have one of those as soon as possible–if you want to be notified when that’s ready, sign up here for our FREE Disney newsletter here.
When it comes to Walt Disney World crowd predictions for the remainder of 2020 after the parks reopen (whenever that might happen), there are generally two schools of thought. The first is that most guests who have had their trips cancelled will rebook later in the year for the months that remain, meaning several months worth of crowds will be crammed into what’s left of the year. This would mean a significant spike in attendance.
The second is that crowds will be significantly lower across the board due to surging unemployment, plummeting consumer confidence, economic anxiety, travel trepidation, and more. If you’ve read any of our past posts related to the topic, you already know we fall firmly in the second camp.
We’ll cover both theories here, discussing what each means in terms of how busy Walt Disney World will be. However, there are a ton of variables that will be at play and we don’t have a crystal ball–if we did, we’d probably use it for something cooler, like finding out who wins the 2021 World POG Federation Championship…
Before we delve into this discussion, let’s set the economic backdrop. Although people might visit for the “Disney Bubble” they don’t book vacations while in one. Real world circumstances have a significant impact on travel numbers–look no further than the attendance lulls following 9/11 and the Great Recession for conclusive proof of that.
The latest weekly jobs report showed 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment, for a two-week total of roughly 10 million jobless claims. This number is a record by a colossal margin, and is likely still an underestimate given that many states and individuals reported troubles with processing and filing unemployment claims, respectively.
Moreover, some companies have done everything they can to keep people employed, but simply will not be able to do so the longer this goes on. Walt Disney World and other Central Florida theme park operators are good examples of this. The Walt Disney Company has announced it’ll furlough employees on April 19, and it’s likely Universal and other businesses will follow suit–adding to those numbers.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis district has estimated that the United States could see as many as 47 million people lose their jobs when all is said and done. That would put the nation’s unemployment rate at 32%, a figure higher than what was seen during the Great Depression. Other estimates project lower and larger numbers, but the one constant is that they’re all unprecedented highs.
While those numbers are eye-popping, they only tell the beginning of the entire story. Several questions remain unanswered. How rapidly will recovery occur? Have we simply hit “pause” on all economic activity? To what degree will there be lasting damage? Will the American consumer bounce right back? How quickly will those jobs return?
Unfortunately, I’m not an economist or financial expert who simply operates a Walt Disney World blog as a side hustle. Nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. (Although even that sounds delightful right about now!) However, I do watch a lot of CNBC and read a ton of financial news, and one thing is clear to me: no one really knows.
Well-credentialed experts each appear confident in their own personal economic projections, but they contradict one another. Suffice to say, there’s no clear consensus. Unlike the weather forecast (which itself isn’t a hallmark of reliability), these experts are working with even less complete information. So much of the story remains to be written.
Economists have offered up no shortage of predictions for the “shape” of the economic recovery. Initially, a rapid V-shape rebound was favored. Now, more believe it could be an L, W, or U-shape recovery. Some think we’re looking at a “Nike Swoosh” shape (here’s a decent overview of the possibilities). We haven’t yet to hear of any “Hidden Mickey” shape bounce-backs, but there’s still time.
We’ve already spent a lot of time fixating on the current and potential future state of the economy, but the reason for that is simple: it’s the best proxy we have right now for future crowd levels at Walt Disney World. This is all totally unprecedented, so traditional crowd prediction methodology are pretty much out the window.
Consumer confidence is a great barometer for generalized attendance trends, and it already showed a significant drop last month (and that only surveyed sentiment through the 18th–before the parks even closed). It’s safe to assume the consumer confidence numbers for April and May will see an even sharper drop, which is significant because this is the timeframe that average Americans would typically be booking travel for September through December.
On social media, we’ve seen a lot of people worried that Walt Disney World crowds will be colossal in October. (That specific month has come up again and again.) This is based upon comments people have seen posted in Facebook groups, blog comments, and other Disney-centric social media. This fear has been exacerbated by long waits on the phone to book the Free Dining Summer Recovery Offer.
In its own way, this illustrates the problem with online echo chambers. If you’re surrounded by other diehard Disney fans on social media, of course you’re hearing from other people who are rebooking trips and eager to get back to the parks. You thus might assume that “everyone” is booking for the fall and it’s going to be packed.
We’d strongly caution against buying into this–it’s an extreme case of selection bias. High call volume is easy to explain away: there’s also a huge surge in cancellations and we don’t know what staffing numbers are like right now. This is all supported by the reality that only a minority of guests are even eligible for the promo.
Even assuming a number of best case scenarios about the speed and strength of our nation’s recovery from this–plus a lack of health concerns–it’s really difficult to see a massive spike by early fall. For one, September and October are “naturally” Florida’s off-season, a time when school is back in session, meaning less travel.
October has not been off-season the last several years, but that’s largely been due to a huge spike in conventions and other events. The year’s convention schedule has already been decimated, with many events already cancelled for fall. (We wouldn’t be surprised to see no youth events on the calendar for ESPN Wide World of Sports for the remainder of 2020.)
On average, Walt Disney World vacations are booked 5-6 months in advance. (Most people reading this almost certainly begin planning earlier. You’re reading a Disney blog–you’re not the average guest.) In order for those fall months to fill up, people would need to be booking trips right now.
With so much uncertainty in the air, it’s safe to say that this is not occurring on a widespread level. As this closure continues, the same will almost certainly hold true for November and December. At present, it’s difficult to envision the general public eagerly booking trips to a destination with a reputation for crowds and lines. There are simply too many unknowns and anxiety is high.
In our recent post about Walt Disney World Accepting Reservations for June 1, 2020 and Later, we posited that Disney had opened reservations for summer (and offered Free Dining Recovery Deal) to get more bookings and boost the occupancy numbers. Otherwise, it would not even be practicable to open the resorts this summer.
It’s absolutely true that Walt Disney World can work its “magic” to drive reservations. A general public Free Dining offer or even more aggressive discounts could help spike hotel occupancy to acceptable levels. Good deals can overcome a lot, including fears about congestion.
What’s largely out of Disney’s control is occupancy at off-site hotels. Walt Disney World is somewhat dependent upon Florida tourism, as a whole. While fans bemoan the construction of new on-site hotels and how they’ve exacerbated crowds, the reality is that most guests on any given day are still coming from off-site.
Even if Disney can somehow against all odds manage 90% on-site occupancy for the fall and winter, the actual crowd levels in the parks will be largely dependent upon what booking levels look like off-site. It’s safe to say that third party hotels will likewise offer deals to get back on their feet, but those don’t have the same impact of enticing people to visit Walt Disney World. Nevertheless, let’s say those hotels see a recovery and WDW offers a strong general public 4-day ticket deal to recover some off-site guests.
All of that is making a number of best case assumptions about consumer confidence, the economic recovery, and Walt Disney World’s ability to quickly and effectively deploy discounts to buoy resort occupancy.
If the average American has economic anxiety, unemployment remains above 10%, and/or consumer confidence does not rebound, fewer people will be booking trips. To us, the best case scenario looks like a 15% drop in domestic attendance–and that doesn’t even take into account international guests who may not even be able to travel to the United States.
Again, this is all the general public we’re discussing. Walt Disney World fans will no doubt disproportionately make sacrifices, jump on discounts, and do everything they can to return to their happy place. However, Disney fans are a (vocal) minority of all guests on any given day.
All of the above discussion reflects the second school of thought regarding Walt Disney World crowds after the parks reopen–the beliefs to which we subscribe. The other is that most guests who have had their Walt Disney World vacations cancelled will rebook later in the year for the months that remain.
The theory here is that Americans won’t sacrifice their 2020 vacations. If the parks are closed for ~2 months and reopen on June 1, those couple months worth of crowds will be redistributed for the remainder of the year. This is the best (or worst, depending upon your perspective) case scenario.
If Disney can simply spread the crowds that would’ve materialized during the closure over the rest of the year that could mean a 10-25% daily increase in crowds, depending upon how long the closure lasts. This is theoretically possible if you ignore real world reality, we guess. It’s also theoretically possible that Walt Disney World will begin accepting Monopoly money and we’ll each be named Princess or Prince of Magic Kingdom for the day.
However, we will concede that we don’t know how this will end up playing out. This is totally unprecedented in a number of ways, and it seems like every single day has included a new and usually unpleasant surprise. It’s virtually impossible to predict how the nation will look and feel several weeks from now, let alone several months.
We feel our thinking represents a sober view of how the general public’s current attitude towards booking vacations and the variables that will impact that in the coming months. While it’s likely Central Florida locals eager to get out of the house will pack the parks (to the degree that’s even possible) in the first few weeks after reopening, we’d expect that to be a temporary surge. After that, our preliminary expectation (read: total shot in the dark guess) is that you can take normal crowd calendars and drop those numbers by about 50%. Take October’s numbers and drop them even further than that. This doesn’t even take into account crowd control measures and operational modifications Walt Disney World might make, but that’s another topic for another day…
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise or fall once the parks reopen? Are you anticipating colossal crowds this fall and holiday season, or the lowest levels since the Great Recession or 9/11? Will you immediately book a trip, or wait until the economy recovers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We booked for this September way in advance. We still have that reservation, and have made no changes to it. We will just take a wait-and-see stance, that’s all we can do. If WDW isn’t open in September, then Disney will cancel our trip, and perhaps offer us Free Dining when we can rebook. That would be a welcome consolation.
I’m also considering booking a second vacation now for 2021. We don’t plan to take two vacations, we would just keep 2021 as a backup, just in case. But the anniversary crowds next year sound like they’ll be pretty insane, so I’d really prefer this fall.
As for pulling my 13-year old out of school to go on vacation, I’m actually more convinced now that it will be fine to do so. Consider: how much is their education currently compromised by distance learning? Still, they are all dealing with it the best they can. I find it hard to believe that missing five days of school later this year will have a worse impact than the current conditions are having. She’ll either do the work in advance, or make it up afterwards. Or maybe by then her teachers will be able to provide distance learning she can do during vacation downtime, who knows. In any case, the school district will have a hard time convincing me that five days will have a rough impact on my straight-A’s daughter’s education.
I have had the exact same thought! Now that school will be closed 2+ months, 5 days seems like nothing. I always pull mine for one week a year but now I am even more inclined to do so.
Looking at bookings, I’m certain that just about all cancelled DVC points will be moved to later this year; with that, the limit for number of member occupants from September thru December is the same as any other year when applicable resorts are booked at or near capacity during those months. Attendance numbers are a given for this group, and won’t really impact the overall picture any more or less than usual. I guess when you have to use ’em, you do. The rest is anyone’s guess.
Agreed.
DVC is definitely one of Walt Disney World’s biggest saving graces for the next year-plus. Those occupancy numbers will be slightly higher than normal (to the extent that’s even possible), no doubt about it.
We have a trip planned for Sept since last year and was hoping to get free dining this year. I m very nervous about why to do about our trip. I have heard a lot of people rebooking for Sept and this is going to make it very crowded and they may not offer any free dining to the rest of the people. But on the flip side I know a lot of people are not going to be able to afford to go or may want to stay away from crowds as of now I keeping the reservation and going to decide as it gets closer and more info comes out.
We will be at Disney on July 27/28. We will be staying in Disney Springs with one day of resort hopping and then Animal Kingdom (me- first time since 2009 and my twin first visit to AK). I am mentally preparing for huge crowds. People are losing their minds to get back and will need a break from home. We will bring a pack of clorox wipes and ride all we can.
Over 1 year ago we planned a trip for Nov 5-11 at the Contemporary with a view of the park, A huge once in a lifetime and expensive trip. We are not ready to make a commitment one way or the other. It’s a wait and see trip. I’m not certain about spending $20,000 on such a vacation now. ( family of 6 air, food, all the expenses at Disney) Also, I’m not certain I feel health- safe. ( if such a word)
It will be months until we are ready to make a decision.
I agree, wait until a vaccine is offered before you commit to the trip!
We’ve got a trip planned and booked for Mid-July. I feel fairly confident that the parks will be open to some degree. If the parks are open, we’re going. I’m sure that Disney will enforce new spacing policies. Selfishly, I hope the crowds lag when we go. Having smaller crowds wouldn’t bother me in the least.
I feel somewhat torn on this. I want crowds to drop but not because people are losing their jobs. It’s sad that so many people are suffering with not just concerns about the coronavirus but also job loss. Hopefully things will get better.
I don’t see how Disney World can be very busy for awhile seeing that unemployment is over
6 million people. There are many other priorities than a vacation to Disney. Kids have been out of school so long now, you’re not going to take them out in the fall for a vacation!
If the fall is difficult to book it is because people are trying to get the free dining and there are only so many rooms allocated for that offer. People will also be afraid of crowds now. I don’t see Disney recovering back to normal until 2021.
I think a key question is, What does Disney do to jumpstart park attendance? I think they will be eager to demonstrate to financial analysts that their customer remains in tact, and one of the best ways to do that would be to offer massive discounts initially for Park tickets, reservations; for everything else. The discounts they might offer will be gigantic. The goal of the discounts of course would be to demonstrate better massive base of diehard Disney fans is still present in the economy, and are eager to get back in the parks. It will be much easier for Disney to borrow money if they can demonstrate that the demand is still there. Disney will also have to cancel a large number of marginal projects such as the Lakeshore lodge next to Fort wilderness which at this point would be a very speculative use of capital, to show financial analysts that they are being conservative with their financial resources.
I agree with this, but even aggressive discounts can’t overcome the average lag between when people book trips and when they travel.
Even a discount of 75% off (not that I actually expect that) hotels is not going to be particularly effective if most people can’t book trips on that short of notice. I’d expect that to be doubly true as people–even those who remain employed–work to resume normalcy at their jobs.
One big question affecting crowds: what measures and restrictions will be in place when the park’s re-open?
I’ve seen credible rumors that it will re-open without fireworks, parades, character meets and indoor shows.
There could be attendance restrictions to reduce crowd densities.
Affecting how crowds “feel,” there could be reduced hours. Combined with possible cancellation of character meets, indoor shows…
Finally, don’t forget international travel playing a big role. Even if parks re-open, there may be continued restrictions on travelers from Europe and Asia. The virus can get worse in South America over the summer… no Brazil travel groups.
There are just toooooo many moving parts to make a prediction about crowds.
The only thing I can say– I’m still booked 6/26-7/4. All Epcot are deluxe hotels has been 100% booked for months. Now there are a few vacancies popping up. So cancellations seem to be outpacing new bookings.
On the other hand, if you check FPs 60 days out – you’ll find popular FPs are super solidly booked for days 60-65.
“I’ve seen credible rumors that it will re-open without fireworks, parades, character meets and indoor shows.”
I’ve seen these same rumors (among other things), and have a very different view of their veracity.
Right now, leaders at Walt Disney World are no doubt tossing around a ton of scenarios. To borrow your phrase, there are too many moving parts right now (and fluidity to the present situation) to take those ideas seriously at this point.
I hope you’re right that those rumors end up being inaccurate. We’ve rebooked for the week of 11/29, but I can say with absolute certainty that if there’s a lot of things still stopped/closed inside the parks we won’t be going. All the construction is bad enough, anything more and the cost is no longer worth it, regardless of discounts.
I don’t think the rumors are false – or true. I suspect Disney is mapping out a lot of scenarios. There are a lot of unknowns, doubt decisions have been made.
But (and you should do a post on this), I would implore Disney to communicate well with guests.
Don’t just offer free dining, then let guests show up to discover TS restaurants are closed.
If anticipated re-opening is June 1st, then by May 1st, communicate a plan. Let guests know what to expect. If there aren’t going to be fireworks, warn guests, if parks will only be partially operating, earn guests.
Don’t need to make guarantees. Qualified disclaimed language of “we anticipate re-opening the parks with these restrictions in place. Further restrictions may become necessary”
But then let educated consumers make informed choices of whether to book/cancel a trip.
We’re booked for 6/23-6/30 and thinking the same thing. The part we’re a little frustrated with, is that we’ve been booked since last September and with all these discounts, special promotions, etc. we feel as if we’re slightly missing out. Our resort was solidly booked when the FREE Dining came out so we missed that, then we missed out on the FUN in THE SUN Deal because we booked with 2019 rates. What are the chances that if we do go, we’ll be the guinea pigs to these restrictions and would miss out on the “typical” Disney things like parades, shows, and fireworks! Reservations cancelled because we have to sit 6 feet apart, rides closed or temporarily changed because it’s crowd gathering like Haunted Mansion. We know a few families that have already rebooked during school months, (Oct/Nov) so they didn’t loose $$ on tickets paid for, etc. I guess it’s Russian Roulette at this point.
I would be shocked if the parks opened before late July/Aug. The virus may be winding down by June in the northeast, but the curve is later for FL. I bet Disney will not be able to justify reopening till late Aug to coincide with school opening and perhaps later if there are further state restrictions on large gatherings. This also assumes no fall 2nd wave.
Something that can’t go on forever financially will end. In this case, Disney and most other businesses will reopen relatively soon, or they will be forced into bankruptcy. There is no precedent for shutting down an economy for even one month, let alone four. It will be better healthwise and in terms of all other measures of human well-being if the reopening of the economy occurs in May rather than in July. Prolonged economic depression’s result in premature deaths on a scale far greater than the worst case projections for COVID-19.
Totally agree with your analysis! The economy can not shut down for that prolonged period of time. I’d expect Disney to open up shortly after the Florida stay at home order is lifted. People will be eager to get back to all things normal.
I understand where your coming from. A lot of factors to predict. Lots of posts I read said they rebooked their April and May vacations to September. It might be that people that have already paid might be more apt to go despite the financial conditions. Having to wait so long after you were really looking forward for your trip.
I was kinda looking at this pandemic like “I had seen this movie before”. But when Disney closed, it made it real. If you think we create our own reality, you could feel the absence of the happiest place on earth.
“It might be that people that have already paid might be more apt to go despite the financial conditions.”
I definitely agree with this, and history bears it out. Many people will take “last hurrah” trips that are already paid for regardless of their current financial circumstances. The question becomes how many such trips are booked–that number drops each month further out we get.
As for what Disney fans are saying online, you might recall that a ton of people were complaining last year about how packed September was going to be. Many fans booked trips in September to enjoy the calm before the Star Wars storm…and then Disney surprisingly announced the land would open then. The parks were going to be packed!
We all know how that ended up playing out…
My daughter and I are supposed to be there June 7-14 for a girls only trip! I am still cautiously optimistic that it will be open by then. Thus far, we have not been affected by economic issues so I am hoping that remains. If it isn’t open by then we will just reschedule for the following year. I am a teacher, so the summer is all we really have for travel. If it’s open we’re going!
I am actually booked for this October 25 to Nov 3. We have decided to rebook for the exact same time next year. My husband and I are coming from Canada. We planned on driving down. Things are so uncertain. It is our first time to Disney we want to be able to enjoy it. Next year Disney will have had time to reorganize from all this crazy. I also read there could be a second wave of the virus in the fall. I love your blog by the way. Stay safe keep us updated like you do. Love from
We really weren’t sure what to do for our trip. We were meant to be there from April 28th. What we decided in the end was to postpone until April next year.
We have a blowout trip planned for the for the first 2 weeks of September that was booked months ago. It was supposed to celebrate my mother-in-law’s retirement, and would be the first vacation she has taken in 35 years! (O_O) I am hoping and praying that Disney is open by September (and with shows and parades running, as that is probably what she is most looking forward to), but if not then we will re-book for as soon as they are.
I will say that I had a lot of trouble rebooking in September. It was back and forth this week worked, this one did not, no studios, finally had to up it to a 1 bedroom and take a week we originally did not want. So I figure September at this point will be super busy!
my thoughts- it will be like the initial opening of rise of the resistance. the first 2-3 weeks will be busy, but probably mainly locals desperate to go. overall crowds numbers will be nearer “normal”. then once word gets out people have gone, the floodgates will open with people traveling there, so long as their states are not still under stay at home orders, and the rest of the year will be jammed into 2021.
between the opening of SWGE and hurricane dorian, i almost considered moving our september 2019 trip to later in the year. could not be happier i didn’t right now.
I think the first two weeks it’s open will be heavy hit, but if it’s in the summer no matter what it will still be Orlando and HOTTER than the surface of the sun.
Great analysis.
One (minor) point that, in my opinion, will further reduce crowds at weeks the schools aren’t closed…
There is a % of parents who are willing to have their kids miss school for vacation. Some parents will never (or can’t) pull their kids out of school, and are biased towards the school breaks. I would guess the pool of people willing to have their kids miss school will shrink based on missing the last quarter of the 2020 school year.
It might just be a blip and not have a real impact, or not materialize. Like everything right now, who knows.
Agreed. I think most parents are less likely to pull their kids out of school having missed the last quarter of the 2020 school year. Normal needs to continue awhile before people get more comfortable. I’m usually Ok with pulling my elementary and preschool kids out for 5 days but now I wouldn’t do it until 2022 or just do a spring break. Unless of course my wife and I lose our jobs then all bets are off….
I fall into the category of parents unable to have kids miss school because the school district is very strict, only allowing for 9 days missed the entire year, meaning if the kid is sick with mono or something that has them miss school for more than 9 days, they must repeat the grade. So, taking them out to go to Disney World for a week is a non-starter for many of us in the Deep South.
I am not willing to go to Disney during the colder months since we like using the pool, so if I cannot make it there by July, my trip is cancelled for the year. Schools restart in the first week of August in Alabama.
I just tried to book a fireworks cruise for July 4th and I was told that the Disney Agents cannot book any activities until September 1. I was allowed to book a room at the Yacht Club and a Behind the Seeds Tour for early July, but none of the special tours/activities.
I currently have a trip scheduled for mid-June, but It’s hard to imagine me wanting to go even if they opened up the parks pretty quickly. I’m not sure how comfortable I’m going to be attending any large events, including Disney World. I think I’m going to need to see the green light for a good period of time with a flattened curve before I’ll want to be around large crowds.
Probably this. But if you and your family have already had it and recovered then it would be perfect to go!