Disney World Delays Bookings Another Month
Walt Disney World has likely pushed back the reopening of resort hotels for at least another month, with new reservations now only officially available for July 1, 2020 and later. In this post, we’ll share details about the changes, plus commentary on how to reconcile this with other recent announcements and progress towards reopening. (Updated May 9, 2020.)
As with Disneyland earlier this week and Walt Disney World a little over a month ago, hotel reservations have been pushed back for another month, with no new bookings or modifications possible for travel dates before July 1, 2020. While it wasn’t when we originally published this news, the “Temporary Closure & Operational Update” bulletin on Disneyworld.com has now been updated yet to reflect this new date.
Additionally, resort and vacation package cancellations will occur on a rolling basis (as has happened week by week for May) for June 2020 travel dates. For those looking to rebook for late Summer 2020, the Sun & Fun Room Discount offer is still available. However, Walt Disney World has ended the Free Dining Recovery Deal early…
For starters, there has already been speculation that this is happening because Walt Disney World already has enough bookings for June in a limited reopening scenario. This is possible, but we highly doubt it for a number of reasons.
First, as of yesterday afternoon, there was ample availability when we spot-checked various dates for resort bookings. For plenty of options to be available yesterday and nothing today suggests a repeat of what happened in late March with Walt Disney World cutting off new bookings for May.
Second, even assuming every single hotel room is booked with an average number of guests, that still only accounts for ~25% of Walt Disney World’s total capacity. (And as we noted above, there was plenty of availability as of yesterday, so every hotel was not booked. We’d personally be shocked if occupancy levels were above 50% for June.)
Much ado is made about Walt Disney World having too many on-site hotels and those causing overcrowding, but the reality is that the majority of theme park guests visiting Walt Disney World on any given day are from off-site. On a tangential note, the notion that Disney will be limiting the parks to hotel guests upon reopening is preposterous–even with locals and off-site guests, attendance is going to be low for a while. The travel industry is in for a long road to recovery.
With all of that said, the announcement that Walt Disney World is not accepting reservations until July 2020 might seem ostensibly difficult to square with yesterday’s announcement that Disney Springs Will Start Phased Opening on May 20, 2020. However, there are a few key differences. First and foremost is that Disney Springs is essentially a fancy mall and place to get dinner for a lot of Central Floridians (heresy among some reading this, I know) and can thrive without any out of state tourists.
Additionally, at this point the only venues that will be opening at Disney Springs are third party tenants. As we pointed out with the Disney Springs announcement, it’s possible that Walt Disney World is not ready to reopen its company-owned venues. Instead, it’s reopening Disney Springs to avoid contractual conflict with third party tenants.
Assuming the reopening of Disney Springs goes smoothly and Walt Disney World opts to open its own restaurants and shops, there’s also the fact that date for the first phase of the Disney Springs reopening is less than two weeks after the previous revised booking window that opened June 1, 2020.
Even under an accelerated timeline, it’s unlikely that Disney Springs will be fully operational by the beginning of June. It’s also unlikely that Walt Disney World will have gleaned everything they’d like to from modified operations at Disney Springs during that time. That amount of time is insufficient for testing and adjusting health protocol and other policies at Disney Springs such that they can be modified and deployed at dozens of hotels, plus busy theme parks.
Although Shanghai Disney Resort is obviously very different than Walt Disney World, it’s at least instructive. Shanghai’s Disneytown complex reopened on March 8—over two months before Shanghai Disneyland is resuming operations. For what it’s worth, Disneytown also reopened faster after its closure, welcoming guests after a little over one month of downtime.
Disney Springs will have been closed for roughly two months when it reopens. It’s impossible to say whether Walt Disney World will move on a faster or slower reopening trajectory, but the reality is that the Florida Project is a vastly more complex machine. It could take some time to gain momentum and get fully powered up.
With the exception of Disney Springs, Walt Disney World is also much more dependent upon tourists. As we previously remarked when the earliest booking date moved to June 1, Walt Disney World needs to keep accepting new bookings even for travel dates that are uncertain. (You can gloss over the next few paragraphs if you’ve been reading our Disney Closure & Reopening Updates, as we’ve said this same thing a time or six.)
Walt Disney World needs to accept hotel reservations now in order to meet minimum occupancy thresholds that are a necessary prerequisite for operating the hotels. Without a certain number of bookings, opening those resorts is not practicable. Since the average guest books a Walt Disney World vacation at least 5 months in advance, Disney needs a rolling slate of bookings.
Stated differently, Walt Disney World needs to accept reservations now in order to even have the potential possibility for the resorts to be up and running by July 1, 2020. If you have a reservation for July 4, 2020 or even mid or late July, don’t think this means that you’re now in the clear and the hotels will definitely be back up and running by then.
The updated date is not a signifier that the resorts will definitely reopen on July 1, 2020. To the contrary, all this should be viewed as is evidence that the hotels almost certainly will not be operational before July 1, 2020.
Now, this is not to say that the theme parks couldn’t open before then. Just as there is pent-up demand and a sufficient number of Central Floridians to sustain Disney Springs indefinitely, so too is there enough of a local audience to make reduced capacity theme parks viable…for at least a period of time.
While Walt Disney World is certainly no Disneyland in this regard, if the theme parks are going to have staggered openings anyway (which we believe is highly likely), this approach could make sense. It would be entirely plausible for Magic Kingdom to open one week, followed by Animal Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios the next two weeks, and Epcot in the final week. All without any hotels.
The resort hotels could gradually begin operations after this, as bookings and occupancy levels dictate. With fewer out of state or international tourists initially, it’s also probable not all Walt Disney World hotels will need to reopen right away. For the reasons identified in Disney Vacation Club’s Point Pool Problem, properties with DVC villas will probably be the first to reopen, likely all at once (or close to it).
Otherwise, given the complexity of opening two dozen-plus hotels simultaneously, it’s easier for Walt Disney World to not reopen them all at once. Consolidating some of the Port Orleans bookings, moving guests from Coronado Springs to Caribbean Beach or Animal Kingdom Lodge, etc., are all options. Suffice to say, everything returning in phases seems likely.
In our Potential Plans for Phased Reopening of Walt Disney World, we discussed how the Governor’s Reopen Florida Task Force proposed plans for a gradual and careful reopening that entailed first reopening to Florida residents, then national visitors, followed by international guests.
While that’s the stated plan of the task force, our suspicion is that this is more a “de facto” course of action than a rule-driven one. Which is to say that practical realities of demand and travel (people will first be most comfortable traveling locally by car than by air, out-of-state quarantine rules might be in effect, etc.) may necessitate the approach.
In other words, we don’t expect Walt Disney World to be checking IDs at the gates. However, if hotels aren’t open and fewer flights are scheduled…the crowd will be disproportionately local.
This approach has benefits for Walt Disney World. It allows the parks to stagger attendance and more easily stay within capacity caps by letting pent-up demand among locals with cabin fever fizzle out before out of state tourists return. Locals and Annual Passholders are also going to be more forgiving of missing entertainment, allowing Disney to ramp that up as health and safety allow.
As we’ve said before several times, no one knows when the Walt Disney World theme parks and resorts will reopen. Not us, not analysts, not the governor, and not even Disney leadership. There are internal projections and goals, but the existence of timelines doesn’t mean they’ll be met. Everything is tentative at this point and predicated upon a range of externalities.
Previously, we viewed June as a realistic timeframe for beginning Walt Disney World’s reopening process. Setting aside Disney Springs, which will begin before then, we’re now starting to view June as the more optimistic month. July is probably the more reasonable month–and that’s just the start of the process, which will likely be drawn out over the course of several subsequent months. It’s still possible we’ll see Magic Kingdom and perhaps one other park open some point in June, but that’s not even an educated guess—it’s just a guess based upon what we think are relevant considerations.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Walt Disney World’s hotels will reopen by July 1, 2020? When will you return to Walt Disney World after the parks reopen? Will you be back in the first week, first month, a specific month, sometime within 2020, sometime within 2021, or does it remain to be seen depending upon your personal circumstances, discounts, etc? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
What do you think?
What about our out of state APs. Will my new expiration date be based on the date Florida is allowed in or the date non-Florida APs are allowed back? OR my date restarts the day I return???
I already bought Disney world 4 days theme park tickets for June 3 to June 6 on April 30th from Disney World app. I haven’t got anything about cancel for June yet. I assumed that June would be reopen for 25% or 50% capacity. I wouldn’t change anything till it get closer to the dates If Disney World will re-open at 50% capacity, then I am definitely going!
Any thoughts on Disney’s off-site resorts? (Vero, Hilton Head, Aulani)
We have a vacation booked in August at the Caribbean Beach resort and just received an email survey from Disney. There were several questions but mainly, they wanted to know what would keep us from coming to Disney for our vacation. What would make us cancel? It was very thorough. Hopefully, they will get things figured out!
FYI-from the survey:
Of course for us, if the parks were only operating at 50%, if there was a Covid-19 flair up in Central FLA, if there were unreasonable airfare “hurdles” for flying (we are flying in) and if food and beverage was at 50% of less, these would all be the reasons that we would cancel. We still have hopes of celebrating a big milestone in August but we will see. There is still over 90 days to go….even though I am worried about fast pass selections….
Is it better to modify my reservations now or wait it out and see if Disney cancels to reschedule? I have a trip the end of July and my wife and I aren’t prepared to go with the way things are looking right now.
We have a trip planned first week of September. I’m considering rebooking for the first of November. Any thoughts if that will make a significant difference in terms of what is open? Our major concerns are attraction availability and full service restaurants being open . Thanks
My guess is first week of September you may have some of the interactive rides limited and limited shows/parades/fireworks, but most restaurants should be open. If you re-book for November and we have a 2nd wave of the virus, than the parks could potentially be shut down again.
We are scheduled to go June 6th, but hoping for them not to be open so we can reschedule. We have 12 of us going, ages ranging 10 to 83. Not willing to chance it so close plus if we did go then some of us would have to self quarantine for 14 days. That would be like talking a 3 week vacation that some of can not do.
You can still reschedule if they’re opening in June
As of right now they are still supposed to open June 1st they just stopped selling tickets for that month to keep capacity low.
I’m absolutely OK with pushing back my next trip from 2021 to 2022. It’s worth the wait. By then, life should be safer and I can enjoy myself.
We are scheduled to go in December but we won’t go if we have to wear masks or if certain things are not happening such as parades, fireworks and character meet and greets.
You need to reschedule then. This morning on CNBC Bob Chapek said that masks will be required for all cast members AND GUESTS. I, for one, welcome this. I know others do not and that’s fine. But Disney is a private company and can generally impose whatever reasonably prudent criteria they see fit to allow you to enter the park. I will reiterate though, that wearing a mask or face covering in public is not about keeping yourself safe, it is about keeping OTHER PEOPLE safe in case you are infected and asymptomatic (or pre-symptomatic). I do completely understand not wanting to wear a facemask for hours on end in the hot Florida sun though. I’m not sure if I’d be willing to attend Disney World with a mask or not, it does sound somewhat miserable. Not to mention trying to get my 2 young kids to keep them on!
Ridiculous. I ASSURE you, that if you were to have a standard mask on, and sneeze, the droplets WILL go through your mask, secondly, unless you have a complete face shield then you are accomplishing nothing. Also, anyone that has COPD, ASHMA, or other health issues regarding the respitory system, usually cannot wear a mask because of their oxygen levels. As Disney is a private company, they still must follow laws that protect people with disabilities. Nobody is forcing you to go to a theme park. Stay home if you are concerned, it’s simple. The first person who has an Asthma attack because Disney doesn’t accept their disability, then they can be sued. I’m quite sure they realize that. So not everyone can wear a mask.
As an update, I’ve seen a couple reports that people who had already booked the free dining recovery were still able to modify it after the deal was pulled–it seems like this working more like a Disney Cruise Line 125% credit post-cancellation than like a standard Disney discount… which make sense since it never worked like “normal” free dining or even a normal room-only discount anyway in that it was not limited to certain room types or resorts on certain dates. Instead, it seems like this is a discount partly to encourage late-summer bookings and partly to compensate people whose vacations were ruined and may have had other out-of-pocket costs like airfare or an off-site split stay (even though I know that is not Disney’s fault).
We originally had a graduation trip scheduled for mid June but now have rescheduled for the end of August early September
Fingers crossed we get to go especially now without our graduation ceremony
We want to go but will most likely wait until 2021. We want to see how the new process works and ensure we can safely take the family.
Our next trip is scheduled for late September/early October 2021 for my 40th, the 50th Anniversary AND MNSSHP! (I’m from the “Love It” Cake Castle, side.) As you said, the travel industry will feel this for a LONG time! Clearly we’re a year plus out from our trip, however, I can’t help but wonder (ie worry) how the recent closures will effect the 50th Celebration timeline, crowds, etc.
We have Christmas dates to be there. I’m holding out hope that it’ll still happen.
I think the resorts should open in June they clean constantly and can limit guests. Parks can open a little later as restrictions ease. We have to get back to a new normal eventually.
I am not sure there are many people who want to go stay at the resort of the parks are not open.
The reason they wouldn’t open is because the occupancy/booking levels would be too low. It has nothing to do with them keeping it clean. It doesn’t make sense for them to open all of the resorts if the cost to run all of the resorts outweighs the amount of money coming. Now opening a few resorts and consolidating reservations seems like a viable option, in my opinion.
We have a trip scheduled mid-June, with a backup trip scheduled mid-July and a backup to the backup next April. (Yes…I’m an overthinker!) Based on past cancellations, when should I anticipate receiving a cancellation notice for the June trip?
I would anticipate a June cancellation, yes. I would also be prepared for disappointment for a mid-July trip.
I also have a trip scheduled mid June. We must stay the course and not cancel let them cancel us. Many people will encourage you to cancel because they want to be prognosticators, and they want to be able to say that they saw it coming that Disney would not open in June. Really what would have happened if Disney doesn’t open in June it would be because people have been talked into cancelling, so that Disney doesn’t have a reason to reopen. We cannot give into unreasoning fear. Many on this blog initially thought Disney wouldn’t open until 2021, and they are now trying to push the opening back as long as possible to save face.
For our May 15 trip, we started receiving cancellation notices April 24, so Friday three weeks before. I only have that one experience, but I’m thinking about three weeks before the trip.
I have one scheduled for June 1-5th. I haven’t gotten a survey, & am wondering when my trip will be cancelled, too. I think it’s wrong for Disney to let people plan trips like we are, stringing us along, knowing they will cancel. Most pll plan many months in advance; & Disney doesn’t give us the courtesy of better notice.
Booked a trip for December. We’ve pretty much resigned to no holiday this year. Not because Disney World won’t be open, but we’re not expecting our government to allow us to travel overseas. Whilst we’re disappointed, particularly for our 7 year old daughter, it’s a small price to pay to keep our country safe. Maybe next year….
Any idea why they ended the free dining recovery offer early? I thought I had until the end of May. Silly me!
Sorry to say, but your assessment of the situation was all over the board. First, you give multiple reasons why Disney is pushing the opening back to July, and by the end of the column you say that it is still possible for the MK and perhaps one other park to be open in June. So, stick with one side of the argument or the other. Don’t cut it down the middle. What exactly constitutes a 25% occupancy rate of “Walt Disney World”? To me, that’s simple. If the MK opens, capacity will be limited to 25% of normal capacity. Same for other parks or venues. Plus, Disney is not going to turn the lights everywhere all at once. Hotels may open in stages and when they do, the capacity for each hotel could also be limited to 25% until they get the kinks worked out of the new system. Bottom line, I think MK and DS are open by mid-June, as will be most of the hotels, with everything operating at 25% capacity. There’s never going to be a good time to reopen. But, if you happen to be a guest with everything running at 25% capacity, it will definitely be a completely different experience than one’s in the past with shoulder to shoulder crowds. Time will tell. But the limited opening of venues at 25% capacity I laid out above is my bet. If they don’t get it figured out soon, they may not get the chance to figure it out later.
That’s exactly what I’m thinking too. He also insists on phase opening of the parks but thinks all the hotels needs to open at the same time. They can limit certain resorts in the beginning just like parks. Considering the fixed costs for resorts whether or not in operation, having 25% capacity still brings some profit I assume, whereas if they open MK only to FL residents who are mostly pass holders, like he suggests, isn’t bringing much revenue in my opinion.
We are scheduled for Moonlight Magic very end of June. Has anyone heard about what may happen for this event at Epcot?