Disney World’s Lowest Crowd Week of the Last Year
A couple of weeks ago, we published Autumn Off-Season Arrives Early at Walt Disney World. That took a look at lower than normal wait times and crowds for the first half of the month, offering theories as to why the slowdown was occurring prior to most schools going back into session.
Despite the data, many Walt Disney World fans disputed that analysis. Some recent visitors contended that crowds were still bad or above average. Of course, if compared to August 2010 or even August 2020, they would technically be right. However, Walt Disney World attendance has increased by millions of guests per year over the last decade–with the very noteworthy exception of last year. It all depends upon your frame of reference, we guess.
With two more weeks or wait time data and experiences at Walt Disney World, we have seen this trend continue. Numbers have plummeted even further. In fact, in the last full week of August 2021, Walt Disney World not only had its lowest wait times of the year–but the lowest since the exact same week last year…
Now, some might view that as “evidence” that crowd levels are normal for this time of year. After all, the same week in two consecutive months of August had almost identical wait times. However, I think (or at least hope) we can all agree that August of last year was an anomaly.
Walt Disney World had just reopened, Florida’s case numbers were elevated, travel trepidations were off the charts, and it was primarily locals, plus some diehard out of state Annual Passholders and a scattering of DVC members visiting the parks. Only a few hotels were open, and they were all operating at incredibly low occupancy. As word got out that the parks were veritable ghost towns and more people became comfortable traveling, attendance gradually increased through the remainder of the year.
Fast forward a year, and the circumstances are very different–even if some sound eerily familiar. The best illustration of that–for anyone who wants to compare year-over-year wait times for whatever reason–is comparing last July to this July…
The average wait time during the last full week of August 2020 was 18 minutes and the average wait time last week was also 18 minutes. By contrast, the average wait times across all of Walt Disney World during the last week of July 2021 was 43 minutes. The exact same week in July 2020 saw an average wait time of 15 minutes.
That should help contextualize the average wait times this week v. the last week of August 2020. For more, let’s take a look at park by park wait times with some graphs courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.
We’ll once again begin with Magic Kingdom, which had an average wait time of 18 minutes.
Exactly one month ago, the park had an average wait time of 50 minutes. That’s when we did our most recent Magic Kingdom Rope Drop Report: Busiest Day of Year at Park Opening. That is thankfully “obsolete” (for now), and we’ve already updated our 1-Day Magic Kingdom Itinerary to account for the dramatic decrease in crowds.
Going attraction by attraction, the wait times at even the Magic Kingdom headliners aren’t bad.
Top averages were Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at 50 minutes, Jungle Cruise at 40 minutes, Peter Pan’s Flight at 37 minutes, Astro Orbiter at 33 minutes, and Splash Mountain at 29 minutes.
We visited Magic Kingdom today and during the middle of the day on a Sunday, wait times weren’t even this bad.
The only attractions with significant waits were Seven Dwarfs Mine Train and Peter Pan’s Flight, and even those had shorter posted wait times and neither queue spilled outside the entrance. (We didn’t do either, but based on what I saw, I have a hard time believing the actual wait for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train was above 30 minutes.)
Splash Mountain, Space Mountain, and Big Thunder Mountain Railroad all had 10 minute posted waits but were near walk-ons, the recently-completed Jungle Cruise had a 25 minute wait (actual wait of ~20 minutes), and the PeopleMover was also a walk-on.
If you told me one month ago that we could do three-quarters of the Magic Kingdom Mountain Range with no wait, I wouldn’t have believed it. Yet here we are.
Notice anything missing from the photo above?
The last time we saw this few strollers at Magic Kingdom, it was in the first couple of weeks post-reopening. Of course, this makes sense. Parents are understandably apprehensive about visiting right now, plus schools are back in session.
The slowdown is even more pronounced at Animal Kingdom. Above is a look at average daily rates (rather than weekly) to showcase just how much crowds have fallen off there.
The average wait time there on July 28 was 57 minutes. This week, averages have ranged from 11 minutes to 15 minutes.
Of course, average waits of 11-15 minutes means there will be attractions and times above and below those numbers.
If you visit during the last few hours of the day, you can really clean up right now at Animal Kingdom. There’s not enough to fill an entire day there, so most people park hop in the afternoon. This results in posted wait times like those above, and scenarios where Avatar Flight of Passage, Navi River Journey, Expedition Everest, and others are walk-ons.
Hollywood Studios is also seeing lower wait times.
The end-of-July average was 50 minutes. This week, the average wait times was 25 minutes. Further helping matters is that Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance boarding groups were available after 1 pm every single day of the week.
We did Disney’s Hollywood Studios yesterday, and had a great experience.
At the end of the night, everything was a near walk-on. We did Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway, Slinky Dog Dash, Tower of Terror, and Toy Story Mania all with virtually no waits. (Unfortunately, Rise of the Resistance had downtime and its queue was backed up towards the end of the night, but that’s its own thing.)
Last but not least, there’s Epcot.
Epcot had an average wait time of 13 minutes this past week versus 29 minutes at the end of July. We visited Epcot on a handful of evenings the last week-plus, and the “feels like” crowds (especially on weekends) were definitely higher than this. It would seem that the Epcot Food & Wine Festival is drawing out some locals.
In terms of explaining why these crowds are so low, our theories are more or less unchanged. Our first theory is that this slowdown was an inevitability. It’s the natural conclusion of pent-up demand exhausting itself as the summer travel season drew to a close. After scorching spring and summer travel seasons during which Americans made up for lost vacation time, people have gotten their fix and are now going back to school.
The more pronounced slowdown can be partially attributed to the lack of international visitors, conventions, and group events that would normally sustain the off-season after school starts going back into session. There have also been widespread flight cancellations that likely play a small part. Finally, even those school districts that haven’t yet gone back might have more stringent quarantine policies, leading to greater August attendance drop.
Another big component could be Walt Disney World fans who normally visit this time of year, but are postponing trips until October for the start of the World’s Most Magical Celebration. That thus makes this a “sweet spot” for crowds, and one that should continue until things pick back up during the last week of September.
Although we suspect that all of these explanations play a part in contributing to lighter than normal August crowds, they’re unlikely the primary causes of the precipitous crowd collapse.
As we’ve noted elsewhere, the primary causes of cancellations are likely Florida’s record case numbers and Walt Disney World’s reinstated indoor mask rule.
Whenever these two controversial topics come up, there’s often confirmation bias at play. We hear “if Disney just got rid of the mask rule, the parks would be packed!” from one group and “if Florida did X, Y, or Z, we’d feel safe visiting!” from another group. Regardless of how you personally feel about any of this, try to set that aside. Not everyone shares your opinion–different people are cancelling for different reasons.
In talking with travel agents and third party vendors we know, all have stated that they’re seeing a high volume of cancellations driven by “current events” in a broad sense. Of course, that’s entirely anecdotal and constrained to who we know, but the sample size of high-volume vendors is large enough that it’s likely close to accurate.
For what it’s worth, these cancellations don’t just impact August and September. They extend all the way through the end of the year. Even if/when Walt Disney World drops the indoor mask rule and Florida’s case numbers turn around, it’ll only make so much difference. At least in part, the damage is already done.
With that said, there are also some things we know are not the primary explanations for Walt Disney World’s slowdown, because we can control for those. Basically, anything that also existed in late July can be ruled out.
Weather is probably not a major cause of the drop-off. Yes, it’s miserable in Florida, but it has been “nicer” the last couple of weeks than it was in late July when the parks were packed. Rain and heat can impact wait times to a minor degree, but the only thing that significantly throws them off is hurricanes.
Another thing that is not an explanation is pricing, nickel & diming, or backlash at Genie+ and Lightning Lanes. Due to differences in seasonal pricing and discounts, it’s significantly less expensive to visit now than it was in July. Moreover, Genie+ and Lightning Lanes hadn’t even been announced when this slowdown began.
Many of you undoubtedly want to believe that attendance is dropping because fans are fed up with Walt Disney World’s pricing. Again, don’t let that cloud your judgment. If those changes and cutbacks are going to catch up with Walt Disney World and impact attendance, it’ll likely happen in 2022 at the earliest, and not any time in the immediate future. Right now, a similar slowdown is occurring at Universal Orlando, so any explanation that applies to one park operator but not the other is unlikely to be a main driver of the drop that both are experiencing.
Ultimately, this bodes well for those with Walt Disney World vacations planned for September 2021. With that said, our expectation is that the return of Annual Passes is announced very, very soon with those likely to go on sale shortly after Labor Day. That could result in a slight bump in terms of pent-up demand, but the continued decline of visits among tourists could more than offset the resumption of AP sales.
As previously discussed, this should give some “breathing room” to crowds from October to December 2021, too. However, that absolutely does not mean crowds will continue to be this low. We were previously forecasting that 3 month stretch to have Walt Disney World’s worst-ever crowds, so even a 15-25% pullback still means the parks will be incredibly busy. I don’t want anyone saying or thinking I promised low crowds due to the cancellations–it’s still going to be packed. Just probably not quite as packed.
We’re getting to the point where cancellations could outpace new bookings for the remainder of the year. There’s an average lag of approximately 5 months between booking and traveling. It’s an inevitability that Florida’s case numbers will dramatically decrease next month.
With that said, it’s possible that word will get out about low crowds, which could cause a slight bump in bookings for October and beyond (exactly what happened last year). It’ll be interesting to see how things play out, but if you want to take advantage of low crowds, a last minute trip between now and September 26, 2021 might make sense.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you cancelled a trip to Walt Disney World in 2021? Have any anecdotes of your own about cancellations? Conversely, are you considering a last-minute trip in September to take advantage of the anticipated low crowds? Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will hit record levels come October 2021, or will enough people cancellation to blunt the numbers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
With Disney requiring masks back inside, we would probably seriously plan a short trip to take advantage of the low crowds even in spite of FL as a whole surging, because if you bring a car and do takeout/outside dining, Disney seems to be much safer than FL at large for COIVD, but I agree with one of the other posters that with additional fees that keep piling on from no Magic Bands to paying for parking (I know that came before COVID but we would fly and use Magical Express pre-COVID) to hard to get dining reservations and not much for discounts plus Disney changing mask decisions on a whim instead of announcing in advance (we would cancel if we booked and masks were taken away–as they were mid-trip in June suddenly), it’s not worth really it sadly.
My adult son and I have plans to go to Disney at the end of September/beginning of October. We are both vaccinated, but we think we are going to cancel due to the high Florida Covid numbers and the fact that Disney keeps relaxing their Covid requirements. We haven’t been to Disney in 21 years and really want to go. These low ride times are making it even harder for us to actually cancel the trip.
this was all 1000% accurate, the low wait times were the BEST! and it definitely got annoying switching back and for with sunglasses and facemask every time you walk indoors and outdoors, but oh my if you spend a little extra for a boo bash party right now you can DO EVERYTHING TWICE OVER. i relied heavily in the skyliner this particular trip and it was a game changer, much better than buses right now. if they would only make a skyliner express route to AK, u could avoid buses al together and that would be a dream.
My family and I were just in Disney august 21-28. This was our first time coming as parents and neither my husband nor I had been since we were kids. We were nervous with covid and our original trip was for the end of September but we moved it up not knowing what would happen a month down the road. The trip was amazing! We brought our 2 year old daughter and got to experience 4 parks in 4 days. We doubled up on our favorite stuff each day and were even home by dinner every night except the day at magic kingdom. We were thrilled with the wait times and feel like this was one of the most spoiled we will ever be on a Disney trip! Thank you to everyone for canceling!!
I watched part of a live stream from MK and the park sure was empty. It will definitely be tempting to book a trip next year at this time if that trend remains. However, my preference will always be the week after Thanksgiving into the early part of Dec. Its been a great time to go for amazing weather, a Christmas atmosphere, and relatively low crowds. Just not as low as end of Aug thru Sept.
This is the start of the tour groups from south America season. I was there this past week and I saw none. So my guess they are not coming or not allowed in. That is likely your big dip in crowd numbers.
Tom, your recent posts are killing me! 😉 Thanks a lot. LOL. After reading your blog about the deals for hotels and finding the lowest rate we have EVER had for RT airfare, we decided to take a WDW pool break, no park visit, with a final nostalgia ride on the Magical Express. Now I’m on the fence about a day in the Magic Kingdom on Saturday. We are planning on a quick summer trip 2022 to see the Anniversary hoopla. Worth the current low crowds?
For reference, our last visit was over Christmas/New Years, so the masking is nothing new….
Hi, Tom.
You’ve mentioned several times that travel agents and third party vendors are reporting that they’re seeing a high volume of cancellations, but I’m not seeing it reflected in WDW resort hotel availability. I just searched for a room (any type room) for 2 people, at all resorts, for the week of 11/8/21 – 11/13/21, and there is not a room available at any WDW resort hotel. Perhaps cancellations aren’t going that far out yet, but the rumors of large-scale cancellations might by just that – rumors.
As always, thanks for all of your hard work, see you at the 50th anniversary on October 1!
We are at WDW and visited Magic Kingdom today and can attest to the low crowds and wait times. Even met Tom too. We have visited several times since the reopening, each time was a bit more crowded. Hearing about how busy July was, we were a bit worried.
Do you think that all the cancellations might result in some room discounts for the fall? Hoping there might be one for trip in November.
I have a coworker at the parks currently.
I’ll have to ask him when he returns to work how the crowds were.
We got back from a week at WDW a few days ago and had an amazing time! We were stunned at how much we got done with a 1 and 3 year old, slow rolling it through the parks. Most everything was a walk on or 5-10 minute wait. Even food lines were a cinch. Our longest waits of the week were 25 mins a couple of times for headliners, but the lines still moved so quickly without Fast Pass, that it didn’t seem long at all. And masks inside were a big plus for us in feeling better about being around others, though we never were in a crowd (avoided fireworks). So happy we kept the reservations!
We had to cancel our trip for the end of September. I’m immune compromised and my three year old has had pneumonia twice, so we have to be extra careful with covid. Florida’s numbers and the relaxation of a lot of the safety protocols made ud cancel. My friend is still debating canceling her trip in October, but for very different reasons. She doesn’t want her kids to be wearing masks in all the pictures (but she still wants them to be safe). I am really hoping that we can go in January, but I am not booking anything yet just in case there’s another covid surge.
Tom, I think your analysis is spot on. I also have to wonder if a silent boycott is going on because of how woke Disney has become. Thoughts??
Headed over Labor Day week with my 2 littles – hoping for low crowds and not too horrible weather. Thanks for the updates!!!
With a heavy heart, I just cancelled our early December trip. The lack of hotel discounts, using a phone for so much, dining reservations hard to get, even for quick serve, paying extra for fast passes, all combine to make me cancel. The virus isn’t even the factor, although I’m concerned. It is Disney and the horrible changes they made. Soon no magical express, magic band extra, parking extra. So sad!
I have a trip planned for the 1st week of October. I already had to cancel it twice due to Covid. My children ages 3 and 7 don’t even know we are going. I am going to wake them up that morning and tell them.
I didn’t want to tell them and have to cancel again. It would break their hearts. I am nervous about going but at the same time super excited. I am fully vaccinated but my kids aren’t. I feel like we are losing such valuable time with our families and at some point we still have to live our lives.
We traveled from Michigan for this past week August 22-29, and were pleased with the very low wait times. We have done Disney 15 times over the last 12 years and this was by far the slowest we saw. We did think about canceling too with the rise in the delta variant there and the indoor mask mandates but had gotten such a great price on the trip and flights that we decided to give it a go. There were 5 of us, all adults, and we had a great time, not sure I’d recommend this time of year for small children as the ones there seemed miserable from the high heat indexes every day. The indoor mask mandate was no biggie, everyone seemed very respectful of it and of others. I was surprised at how well everyone handled it with very few complaints heard! Even the kids that were there wore them like champs when they were supposed to. Rides were so easy to get on that we felt like we had done so many of them multiple times we probably could have cut our stay by a day or two. Stayed at a resort using the sky liner and honestly not my fave this time of year as the pop up storms everyday shut it down and made it difficult to get to some of the parks then. The other thing I would like to say is that Disney doesn’t feel as much like Disney used to, food selection especially at magic kingdom has been reduced, prices are definitely up for food and just about anything else… it really did feel like you were getting less for your money. Most cast members were still friendly, some were exceptional and I commend them for their hard work as I know their job of being “happy” during the heat, screaming kids and overall Covid health issues must make things even more difficult. The food and wine festival was especially good this year, we enjoyed many different foods and drinks. Loved the new Star Wars land at Hollywood Studio, Rise of the Resistance was worth the early morning queue fight, and Pandora’s flight of passage was also great but honestly those two parks are toooooo hot to spend a lot of time in during this season. Overall glad we went this week, but for the first time ever not in any hurry to go back for a few years, hoping Disney gets back to trying to make dreams come true and not trying to make it feel like they need to suck every last nickel out of your pocket before you jump on your flight back to the “real” world!
We are headed to Walt Disney World on the 17th because we love the low crowds. This trip we are taking our granddaughters for their first trip. They are 8 and 11. We were able to score a breakfast at Cinderellas Royal Table. I know all the princesses will not be there but we are hoping to see Cinderella. Can’t wait to get out of Kansas and share my happy place with these girls!
We were there last week from NY, some people thought we were crazy but we took the proper precautions and we were staying offsite in a home so we figured if we get uncomfortable we will hang out in the pool! We were always able to maintain distance, never saw an instance with compliance when masks were required and in general felt like Disney if doing a good job. We did exercise some prudence – would have loved to see the MK fireworks from another location but we weren’t mixing with the herd – or leaving with them, we waited for the park to clear out. Star Tours was a mistake – small confined space, not sure what we were thinking. Soarin though was awesome, no wait, we asked for the top row and we had the entire section, meaning 1,2 and 3 rows to ourselves and were asked if we wanted to do it again at the end – hell yes! I wouldn’t criticize anyone for cancelling, my wife is a first line responder so we know what was at stake but we went with the right attitude, if it doesn’t feel right, don’t do it. It really turned out to be one of the lowest crowd experiences I have ever seen and a break we all needed.
We are heading down next Saturday for a week. We’ve been slightly nervous with two kids not old enough to be vaxed, but reinstatement of the indoor mask rule and dropping crowd levels have made us decide to still go. These low crowd levels now have me super excited for how much we’re going to get done in the parks. Thanks for the update!