Disneyland Unlikely to Reopen Before Summer 2021 Under New California Rules
In this afternoon’s weekly public health report and update on California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy reopening progress, Dr. Mark Ghaly released theme park guidelines. In this post, we’ll share the details of these plans, why the parks are unlikely to open until Summer 2021 under these rules, and offer a recap of what’s happening in the last week in the ongoing saga of Disney v. California.
We aren’t going to detail the whole dispute here, just what has happened since Governor Newsom indicated that California would send a team to other states to inspect their health & safety measures. Disneyland’s Wild Reopening Ride is worth the read if you want the full backstory of the drama. We’ve also offered best & worst case predictions for dates in When Will Disneyland Reopen?
Only yesterday, Governor Newsom said he remains “stubborn on a health-first data-driven process that is done with our eyes widen open [to] avoid any further increase in transmissions.” These have become common refrains from Newsom, who has also repeatedly said the theme park guidelines are coming “very soon” for the last two months…
Before that, California sent its “strike team” to Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando last week to inspect those operations. In a statement to the OC Register, California Health and Human Services spokesperson Kate Folmar stated that California health officials visited the theme parks two weeks ago, independently of operators, to assess the health safeguards in practice.
So not really a strike team, but a surprise raid sounds more exciting than a bunch of experts meticulously analyzing and inspecting operations.
Then, over the weekend there was the “Open Disneyland” rally in Anaheim outside the main entrance on Harbor Boulevard. This drew a crowd of about 20 people and, judging by the coverage we saw on the Los Angeles news, consisted mostly of hardcore fans.
Frankly, this probably did more harm than good for the reopening “cause.” I’m not sure why so many adult Disney fans are hellbent on reinforcing the negative stereotypes about us, but stuff like this does not help. Perception and messaging matters, and there are bad ways of expressing valid viewpoints.
Fortunately, business leaders and local unions have also continued to opine on the topic, making clear that the ongoing closure has sweeping economic ramifications for Southern California. Yesterday, the Coalition of Resort Labor Unions sent a letter to Governor Newsom, asserting that “a path exists where Disneyland would be able to open safely when Orange County moves into the Orange tier.”
This is significant because previously this same coalition criticized Disneyland over the summer and indicated that the unions were then not convinced that it was safe to reopen the parks on Disney’s timetable. According to the union coalition’s letter, “since then, Disney has taken safety measures we advocated, and engaged with their workers representatives, [and] our original position has changed. The company has provided detail on serious measures to protect workers via social distancing, providing PPE, addressing ventilation, and more. Most recently, the company unveiled a testing program, something we highlighted in our last letter to you.”
The letter was signed by leaders from 7 unions representing Disneyland Resort Cast Members: Workers United Local 50, Unite Here Local 11, International Union Local 83, Independent Employee Service Association, United Food and Commercial Workers Local 324, American Federation of Musicians Local 7, and International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees Local 504.
In addition to endorsing Disneyland’s reopening plan, the union leaders urged California’s task force to meet with representatives of the resort workers as part of the process. They contended that the effectiveness of public health agencies would benefit from coordination with worker representatives that have practical knowledge and expertise regarding the challenges of addressing exposure risks.
While the parties have met in the middle and Disney has addressed some of the unions legitimate concerns, part of the about-face by the unions is undoubtedly due to the layoffs of 28,000 Disney Cast Members in California and Florida. Keep in mind that there are plenty more indirect job losses; Anaheim has hundreds of hotels, restaurants, and other businesses that are dependent upon travel and tourism.
While we’ve been critical of Disney’s antagonistic tone towards California in the last few months, the layoffs have no doubt been exacerbated by Disneyland’s ongoing closure. (Again, messaging matters…and we can’t help but wonder whether some of this standoff could’ve been avoided had Disney attempted to diffuse tensions rather than escalate them.)
Just yesterday, over 1,300 additional Disneyland attractions Cast Members were laid off, including in Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Thus far, Disneyland accounts for nearly 30% of the layoffs. That number might seem low, but there are a couple of things to consider.
First, Disneyland employs far fewer of the domestic theme park Cast Members than Walt Disney World. Second, once Disneyland is back up and running, it will be better poised for success than Walt Disney World, thanks to its comparative lack of hotels and local visitor demographics. In reality, the layoffs are disproportionately impacting the California parks at this point.
During today’s weekly public health press conference, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly unveiled the state’s reopening guidelines for theme parks. During this, he offered guidance for both theme parks and live professional sporting events at outdoor stadiums.
Dr. Ghaly discussed the observations from the tours of theme parks in Florida, including many practices that were reassuring along with others that were “random.”
During this, Dr. Ghaly identified some of the potential problem points with theme parks, including some factors that made them higher risk settings than outdoor stadiums. We aren’t going to rehash all of that–you can read the above slide from the presentation.
The bottom-line concern is that theme parks present a greater likelihood of outbreaks in California, particularly among a wider geographic base of visitors. (That was emphasized repeatedly during the presentation.)
Consequently, the long-awaited release of the theme park reopening guidelines are exactly what was leaked a few weeks ago that both Disney and Universal implored California to reconsider.
These are definitely not what those companies, local politicians, unions, or other businesses had in mind when urging California to release theme park reopening guidelines.
Here are the specifics of the theme park reopening rules…
Moderate (orange):
- Smaller parks can open with modifications
- Capacity must be limited to 25% or 500 people, whichever is less
- Outdoor attractions only can open
- Reservations required
- Local attendees only (from the same county as the park’s location)
Minimal (yellow):
- Larger parks can open with modifications
- Park capacity must be limited to 25%
- Reservations required
Here’s additional guidance for California theme parks and amusement parks.
This guidance includes additional considerations for:
- Admission, entry, and security
- All rides and attractions
- Dining and concessions
- Performances, interactive exhibits, and events
- Uniform, costume, and wardrobe protocols
All of this means that Disneyland, Disney California Adventure, Knott’s Berry Farm, and Universal Studios Hollywood cannot open until their respective counties (Orange and Los Angeles) hit the yellow or minimal tier. As we’ve said previously, that’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. Realistically, this means Disneyland and DCA almost certainly won’t reopen until 2021.
More on the why of that as we cover California’s tier system and where Orange County presently stands…
Theme park reopening guidelines are relatively meaningless in isolation–what matters is how they square with California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy reopening plan and (in the case of Disneyland) Orange County’s status within those tiers. Right now, things aren’t looking so great.
Orange County is still in the red or widespread tier, which is where it has been since being upgraded after Labor Day. (No progress in over a month.) At that point, Orange County was trending in the right direction, really close to the orange or substantial tier. Since then, the county’s numbers have essentially plateaued, and the introduction of the “health equity” metric actually put Orange County further away from its goal than it was back in early September.
At this point, the earliest Orange County can enter the orange/substantial tier is November 3, 2020 based on the current requirement that a county qualify for the next tier for two weeks before moving into it. However, that is incredibly unrealistic given the recent trajectory of numbers. Orange County would essentially need to immediately improve its numbers by a significant amount. That’s not even remotely feasible.
More likely, Orange County won’t enter the orange/substantial tier until mid to late November or December 2020. That’s the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is the county not meeting that goal by then, there being a post-Thanksgiving spike, and Orange County remaining in the red tier until early 2021.
As for the yellow tier, it’s way too early to say, but January 2021 is almost certainly the best case scenario for that. Once Orange County is able to enter the orange/substantial tier, it’ll need to stay there for 3 weeks under California’s rules before even being eligible to move up to the yellow/minimal tier.
So there’s still an outside chance of Disneyland getting the green light at some point in December 2020, but that’s highly unlikely given where things stand and have gone thus far. More likely, Disneyland Resort won’t reopen until Spring 2021 under the current rules.
Even a Spring 2021 reopening for Disneyland and Disney California Adventure might be overly optimistic.
Per Dr. Clayton Chau, Director of the Orange County Health Care Agency, “it’s going to be very hard to achieve the yellow tier” due to Orange County’s size, number of universities, and interstate commerce. He thinks Orange County can look forward to yellow tier by Summer 2021 “hopefully.”
UPDATE: Disneyland Resort has released the above statement about California’s theme park reopening guidelines. Pretty unsurprising, but worth adding here nonetheless. Something tells me the Disney v. California saga is far from over.
With that said, it’s also entirely possible that California modifies or relaxes its reopening tiers between now and Spring 2021; this ultimately comes down to striking the right balance between different types of health. While California keeps stressing health and data, at some point the economic data and long-term ramifications are going to be too dire to ignore. We can’t help but think that here, messaging and perception are mattering a bit too much to California and Governor Newsom. As always, it’s a delicate balance and we’re happy to not be the ones making these tough decisions.
If you’re preparing for a Disneyland trip, check out our other planning posts, including how to save money on Disneyland tickets, our Disney packing tips, tips for booking a hotel (off-site or on-site), where to dine, and a number of other things, check out our comprehensive Disneyland Vacation Planning Guide!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What are your thoughts on California’s theme and amusement park reopening guidelines? Is this too stringent, or appropriate given the circumstances? Think this means we’ll soon get an announcement from Disney soon regarding this news? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Part of the problem is that Disneyland keeps getting benchmarked against Disney World. Florida numbers don’t warrant their current opening status, IMO. The governor in FL has been incredibly cavalier. Disney has done their best, but let’s be real – there isn’t really a good way to trace outbreaks back to World even if they did occur. It’s set up that way by design. CA has put in a ton of hard work that has helped their positive rates, etc, despite the uphill battle their Governor has faced with troublesome counties like Orange. I can see why they hesitate to throw that all down the drain so easily. Also we have to keep in mind that while this subject hits very close to home for Disney bloggers, super fans, and their local economies, the optics of it are completely different to the majority of the world that isn’t in those categories. They are theme parks – and the global Disney Paris earned their right to be open because their national plans were much more effective in stamping out the spread of the virus. We haven’t and are paying the price.
Meant to say global Disney “Parks” (with one coincidently existing in Paris).
“…the optics of it are completely different to the majority of the world that isn’t in those categories.”
I don’t think we’ll ever know the answer to this as those most inclined to comment on this topic are one of the aforementioned categories (or have an axe to grind with Newsom), but I’m nevertheless curious as to how the general public feels about this.
I’d also hazard a guess that sentiment changes over time as fatigue sets in and/or economic impacts are felt closer to home.
Honestly Tom, I’d wager the general public hasn’t even thought about it. There is a similar issue going on here in NYC with the Broadway theatres being closed through at least June 2021. It is devastating for those in the industry and the restaurants and hotels that benefit from all the people coming into town to see shows, but the majority of the city isn’t that concerned because it doesn’t really affect them and they have other things to worry about.
For most people a trip to Disneyland is a once in a while thing. I know it has a ton of APs, but they are still a small percentage of the people who live close enough they could feasibly visit on a regular basis. So if you are someone who goes once a year or less you might think it’s too bad you have to take a year off and that it’s sad all those people are out of work, but you probably won’t dwell on it too much.
If you had to pick opening WDW or Disneyland based on numbers, it would be Disneyland. California’s numbers are better than Florida’s. California isn’t even in the top 25 states for number of infections or deaths per 100,000 people. Florida is.
I live in Florida and we are doing fine, thank you very much.
I sure hope that Disneyland gets opened up again either this December or this spring, because I know someone who has two daughters and they look like they would make excellent Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique customers and the kind of girls who would like to get a hug from Ariel Snow White and Cinderella â¤ï¸ in the Royal Hall ☺ï¸â¤ï¸â¤ï¸â¤ï¸ if the Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique and the Royal Hall ☺ï¸â¤ï¸â¤ï¸â¤ï¸ becomes available once lots and lots of Americans get vaccinated.
Judging by Newsom’s past encounters with cities around the state, he seems like a vindictive person, and makes policy decisions around this attribute. The OC beaches come to mind; when they were crowded, he said “Fine, we’re closing all the beaches across the state because you aren’t listening to ME!”
I haven’t been a fan of the way he’s navigated this whole fiasco…his big thing is science. But I believe they could’ve opened up the parks some time ago under safety protocols that would agree with the science.
I’m from the Bay Area and even here people have had it with his decision making.
Even in the Yellow tier they are only going to get 25% capacity. Is there ever a return to a Green-type of tier? It seems California isn’t planning to ever authorize normal operation is in many sectors.
I think there is a strong case to be made that the government of California is actively ignoring the science and data. I don’t know why, I’m sure their intentions are good and they are doing what they think is best in a tough situation.
That being said they explain their reasoning by just saying “science and data” without actually giving us any data and only minimal science.
I know there is no way Disney can pull on Elon Musk and just say “screw it, we’re opening and you’ll have to arrest us to stop it.” But I’ll bet there are plenty of managers, union members, and non-union members who would like to take this approach.
My opinion as a health-care professional: Orange County making Yellow tier by summer next year is optimistic and only happens if a vaccine is widely available and highly effective.
I doubt CA can stick to these guidelines that long, and think they will be adjusted before they are met.
What an absolute travesty and crime. To say there are no guidelines possible to enable Disneyland is a lie. This should cost every California official who has a hand in this to be fired and shamed – beginning with Newsom. There are thousands of large and small businesses and organizations including DisneyWorld that have successfully met the challenge. This nanny state mentality is a fake. One can be scrupulously serious about precautions to keep every including cast members and guests healthy. The most unhealthy thing in all this is the arrogant ego of a governor and team who claim to have the right to control lives and businesses capriciously. Shame. Disney will survive but what a travesty for them to have to suffer at the hand stop of this small man.
Thanks for the update and with my feelings am glad you quickly mentioned these same people and unions who months ago were showing their complete discontent to the point of threatening to strike to stop the reopening, even going so far to call Disney irresponsible and uncaring about wanting to reopen. Sadly what did they think would happen. Many happily soaked up benefits and now the well has run dry. Proves to be careful what you protest. Don’t blame the state for continuing what you wanted. I feel sorry only for those who wanted to work the whole time. I love WDW and will continue to visit weekly and support those that were happy to return.
In fairness, Disney and the unions have more or less ‘met in the middle’ and some concerns the unions had were (IMO) legitimate. It’s not like they arbitrarily did a 180 on this once layoffs began.
I’m glad that Governor Newsom has the courage to stand up to big money interests and do what he can to protect the people of California. Like it or not we are in a global pandemic and things are going to be painful for awhile. Death is the only final pain that you can’t recover from so I’m glad he’s taking an approach that protects people from this over the sad loss of jobs but they are recoverable and we as a country can help avoid those bad effects too. Europeans have protected those in job loss situations and so can we.
The parks have been open in Florida since July 11th ( I was in attendance and nervous). At the time I was convinced that day that the parks would close again (it was the height of Florida doom media). I was wrong. Disney world is doing an excellent job. The media have been looking hard for outbreaks tied to Disney and they have found nothing. I don’t think there is any evidence that keeping the parks closed in California is reducing deaths.
“Protect” = control. Why can’t they reopen and people make their own decisions if it is risk they want to take? Why must government tell us what we can/can’t do? This isn’t China.
And in case you haven’t noticed, all these lockdowns have done absolutely nothing to stop the spread. The virus isn’t going anywhere.
California is one of the most locked down state in the country. When measured on an equal measuring stick such as number of deaths per 100,000 or number of cases per 100,000 it has far better numbers than Florida, Texas, New York, Illinois etc. Newsom’s claim of science and data does not justify the closure.
Not everyone dies from getting Covid. Not everyone gets seriously ill from getting Covid. If you’re at risk, stay home. Let the rest of us live our lives. As a Californian, our state is completely out of step and Newsome is treating CA like his little kingdom. Businesses cannot sustain further closures and I’m tired of paying for Newsome’s mistakes (high speed rail!). CA is in an economic tailspin that won’t stop until we open up all businesses.
Sad. I don’t think this would have happened if Jerry Brown was still governor. Newsom seems to have let petty squabbles with Disney and myopic focus on arbitrary Covid metrics stand in the way of reopening. I fear is that the economic hit from keeping these parks closed will cause far greater public health problems than any benefits gained by leaving them closed. (ok now Tom?)
There ya go! 😉
So sad. The complete destruction of an entire community and economy. People’s careers, livelihoods, finances – destroyed. And the ramifications of this are just barely beginning. History will judge this as one of mankind’s greatest exercises in futility. There is a proven safe path that is being completely ignored in California.
No kidding. Highly disappointing! I have a project in L.A. that is moving back towards starting up, and I want to delay it until DL is open so I can, uh, verify their health protocols…
While Disney corporate is based in CA, they have a far smaller share of the economy there than they do in FL, where they could basically tell the state what they have decided to do and then just do it. You can be sure Disney will not be paying CA any taxes for a long time to come due to the losses. Maybe they should work up numbers and ‘leak’ them about much revenue through sales and payroll taxes are being lost by the state and local communities, and the resulting impacts to related and supply-side businesses hammered by the unnecessarily prolonged closure.
If the county’s numbers have actually plateaued and are holding steady, that would be a good thing versus climbing as some areas are reporting.
Sweet Matterhorn/lagoon pic!
I know that this is a complicated decision with a lot of variables, but what an absolutely massive bummer. Thanks for the informative write up as always Tom!
From San Diego: Yesterday, I optimistically reserved a room for our annual Disneyland Christmas trip. We’ve gone every year since my daughter was two, and my daughter is now 29. The reservation can (and looks like will) be canceled up to 72 hours before arrival. I would be a lot more disappointed if we hadn’t taken our once-in-a-lifetime trip to Disney World last January. We used a lot of your tips and had an absolutely awesome time! Thank you.
The governor of California is power crazy and is doing his best to ruin as many lives as he can.
A vaccine (whenever that will be) may not be effective enough or last long enough so our only real option is to learn to live with the virus rather than the current approach to hide from it, which isn’t working very well.
Thanks to this governor I will probably not have a job in a few months, thankfully my husband can work from home so we will be leaving this state (of craziness).
Given that response from Ken, I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney and the other major theme park operators in California take this issue to the courts in the very near future.
Same. I almost included a parenthetical after the final Disney v. California in this post that said: (Perhaps soon, that’ll quite literally be the next development in the saga!)
At a minimum, refuse to pay any taxes, including property taxes, during the forced closure. This is insane, and very sad for all of the employees and their families there.
Thanks for the article Tom. Not sure if there is direct correlation, but habit the rest opening of the Large Orlando area parks coincided with the decline numbers in Florida? I believe you suggested as much. Point being the opening of the parks has apparently not caused and increase.
Respectfully Tom, you talk around the edges of it but won’t seem to address the main issue in my opinion.
Seems that you have exercise of power by those who hold it packaged in intelligent sounding phrases such as “data and science based decision making”.
We just returned from an 8 day trip to WDW &
Universal Orlando. I can’t say it was out most enjoyable trip, but we get like there was considerable effort(especially at WDW) to keep people safe.
Thanks for communicating to us about the ongoing events.
“Seems that you have exercise of power by those who hold it packaged in intelligent sounding phrases such as “data and science based decision making”.”
(I think there might be an “excused” missing there–if not and I’m misconstruing your comment, my apologies.)
Actually, I’m criticizing that. It seems to me that “health, science and data” are being wielded as an impenetrable shield, and sometimes without the necessary substance to support those buzzwords.
California’s approach is its prerogative, but I think it’s the responsibility of all politicians (at both ends of the spectrum) to level with their constituents about the ramifications of any approaches taken. Every possible decision that can be made right now has tradeoffs. There’s no magic bullet that only has positive results and not negative ones.
What makes Orange County, CA so much higher than Orange County, FL?
In terms of case numbers, positivity, and other pertinent stats, it’s not.
All the pot smoking… Sorry, couldn’t resist!
The recreational marijuana stores have been open the entire time. Gov. Newsome deemed them essential from the beginning.
That’s cool, if that’s what people want to spend their money on. As long as it’s not the grocery or rent money! I’d rather have beer…
So, we surprised my daughter when she turned 15 with planning a trip to DL for her 16th birthday. (We live in Ohio). That trip was supposed to be last March… I was surprised with a trip to DL for my 40th birthday a few years ago. At this rate, we might as well wait until my daughter’s 40th. I think I’m just resigning myself to a long wait for our special mother daughter trip. Thank you for all the updates. I’m hopeful we can all safely return to the things we love soon!
Thanks for the news. I appreciate hearing what’s going on out west. We just visited WDW and I agree with your general assessment that they are doing a very good job.
With these numbers, even if/when Orange county eventually gets to the minimal tier, it seems like opening could still be a bad idea from Disney’s perspective. Why waste a ton of capital and labor hours on training CMs for re-opening prep to have to potentially turn right around and close again with the next minor wave? There is very little upside.
Sadly I’m fairly certain yet another round of CM layoffs is coming. For example there is no real need now for all the plaid tour guides and guest relation CMs wandering aimlessly around Downtown Disney right now. Contractors like my brother were notified yesterday that much of their work is cancelled too. This is devastating for a huge sector of the SoCal economy.
First Comment! Yay!
And what a relief to see that it isn’t a toxic one!