Don’t Wait for Discounts to Book Fall & Christmas 2022 Trips to Disney World
Walt Disney World has not released discounts for Fall 2022 through Christmas, prompting reader questions and concerns. This post addresses what’s going on with resort availability, lack of deals, and commentary about what you can expect towards the end of this year.
Earlier this summer, we covered the likelihood of upcoming deals in When Will Walt Disney World Release Fall & Holiday 2022 Hotel Discounts? That was based on historical precedent of special offer releases prior to 2019, during which time promos were released for September through December on a consistent basis.
While the last few years have been inconsistent, Walt Disney World has started reverting to familiar patterns with the release of discounts. This has made predicting when special offers will be released easier–but not foolproof. In this case, the “not foolproof” part should be underscored, as the fall and holiday season deals are now several weeks “overdue.”
In the aforementioned post, we stated that our expectation is (was) that the next Walt Disney World discounts would be released in mid-July for travel dates from September through Christmas 2022. The most likely release date for these deals is (was) either July 12 or July 19.
To our “credit,” we did say that it was unlikely Walt Disney World would release discounts before then (that hasn’t happened anytime recently), but the release date could slip into August 2022 (that has happened before).
Given that, it’s entirely possible that discounts for the last quarter of the calendar year are coming soon, and Walt Disney World will release them in the next couple of weeks. When readers ask about upcoming special offers, we could simply kick the can down the road with a wait and see response.
However, we’re becoming increasingly concerned that discounts are not on the way. Alternatively, whatever deals are released might be far more last-minute, have limited date ranges, more narrow targeting, or far less availability and more exclusions.
Our basis for these concerns is that we are, once again, noticing resorts filling up for October through December. This appears to be history repeating itself, with a similar trend to what we saw last year around the start of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary and Christmas, as well as earlier this year.
One of the biggest changes on the limited hotel availability front since this time last year is that all previously-closed resorts have reopened. Port Orleans Riverside and French Quarter, plus All Star Music and Sports, as well as Animal Kingdom Lodge – Jambo House all reopened since last fall. That’s over 15% of Walt Disney World’s total room inventory that’s now available for booking but was not earlier in the year–and that’s even before taking into account maximum occupancy thresholds, which have almost certainly increased as compared to last fall due to staffing strides.
Despite this inventory increase, many Walt Disney World hotels are sold out for a range of dates in the next several months. While now through late September have plenty of options, things get dicier in mid-October around the week of Columbus Day.
Here’s a look at a sample availability search for a week in early December 2022:
As you can see, only 7 out of 34 resorts have availability. While it’s normal for some resorts to be sold out, usually most have at least some options. It’s also worth noting that the above date range is particularly bad–worse than Thanksgiving, Christmas, or other busy weeks.
However, that’s also a look at room inventory exactly 4 months from now. That’s decently far in advance, and yet the options are incredibly limited. Even in searching other dates during the holiday season with better availability, it’s difficult to find anything for Pop Century, Caribbean Beach, Yacht Club, Beach Club, Wilderness Lodge, and the Polynesian. All are difficult to score for full trips, as are other hotels from time to time.
Adjusting dates can yield different results, with resorts becoming bookable and others going unavailable. Further complicating matters is unadvertised minimum booking requirements for certain resorts, meaning that you might not be able to book a single night stay, but 2 or 3 nights might be available.
Regardless of the specifics, the salient point stands: resorts are filling up for October through December 2022, with fewer options than we’ve seen over the spring and summer. Given that these travel dates are still several months away, this does not bode well.
The simplest explanation for sold out resorts at Walt Disney World is the most straightforward: pent-up demand. You’re probably sick of hearing about this, but the travel industry continues to see strong bookings due to consumers shifting their spending from goods to services to make up for lost time.
Last year, the expectation was that the start of the World’s Most Magical Celebration would be incredibly busy. Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary would take years-in-the-making “homecoming” trips last October through December, adding another wrinkle to pent-up demand. The Delta variant had other ideas, and October ended up being one of the slowest months of the year, with crowds not really recovering. The weeks of Thanksgiving and Christmas were still busy, but otherwise, crowds were relatively muted.
This is relevant because the last three months of the year are popular with Walt Disney World fans and repeat visitors. It’s possible that many of them had trips planned for last October through December for the start of the 50th Anniversary, and ended up cancelling or postponing. That’s on top of those who didn’t travel the previous holiday season.
Some of these people now might be booking make-up trips for late 2022. That’s in addition to the first-timers and everyone else who would otherwise book for the holiday season. October through December is normally busy for a reason–it’s a desirable time to visit Florida.
However, demand does not account for the “fully booked” hotels at Walt Disney World, at least not entirely. As has been discussed countless times, staffing shortages remain an ongoing impediment to the parks and resorts operating at full capacity. During recent earnings calls, CEO Bob Chapek has addressed this, saying how company has “self-imposed capacity constraints” as a form of “mitigation” due to problems with staffing shortages for several positions that are integral to the guest experience.
Even before Chapek spoke about this issue, we addressed Walt Disney World’s housekeeper shortage. The causes of the current labor shortages are multifaceted, and the analysis in the above post applies to both housekeepers and cooks. By and large, it’s something that won’t be remedied by hiring bonuses–but should start resolving itself throughout 2022.
This is the explanation for Walt Disney World unofficially “banning” 1-night stays for some travel dates. This restriction was never publicly announced, but if you tried to book a single night reservation, no availability would’ve shown via the online booking engine. If you expanded that to 2-nights encompassing the exact same dates, viola, there was availability.
This was a big issue last October through December, but we stopped seeing it with regularity after that. Over the course of our availability spot checks today, it once again appears to be a thing. If demand continues to be strong for the Halloween and Christmas seasons, this policy will likely become increasingly common–just like last year.
Obviously, this has implications for discounts. We’ll repeat our familiar refrain here: Walt Disney World does not offer discounts out of corporate benevolence–it’s to fill unsold rooms and increase occupancy numbers. If hotel bookings are high at full price, the company has no motivation to release special offers. That would essentially amount to leaving money on the table–or giving it back–for no real reason.
That’s precisely why discounts were scarce for much of last year. Room inventory was constrained and pent-up demand was largely sufficient to fill available rooms at rack rates. To the extent that discounts were offered, they were targeted at select groups, resorts, and travel dates. Options were limited and many deals were illusory in the sense that you needed to upgrade room categories just to save a little on paper.
To that point, Walt Disney World did not release its normal general public discounts for the fall and holiday season last July. When discounts were finally released, they encompassed only December 12-24, and only Floridians, Annual Passholders, and Disney Visa Cardholders were eligible. Options were limited, and even most eligible resorts only offered 10-15% off.
That was still better than the discounts available between September 29 and December 11 of last year, which was absolutely nothing at all. Despite the parks not being particularly busy, the entire first two months of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary had no discounted resort rates.
We’re not necessarily saying that history will fully repeat itself here. The probability of zero discounts between September 30 (when the current Disney+ deal expires) and mid-December 2022 seems low.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Walt Disney World was a bit overzealous with its expectations for the World’s Most Magical Celebration, and had a lot of unfilled rooms as a result. (Again, crowds weren’t bad until Thanksgiving and other hotels all around Orlando had deep discounts. We scored some absurdly low rates at Universal last fall.)
However, we also want to be reasonable with our predictions–providing you with the basis for having realistic expectations and making semi-informed decisions about booking your vacation packages or accommodations. And while it’s still early, what we’re seeing now gives us pause, and reason to believe that special offers for fall and the holidays will be scaled back.
Right now, our base case scenario is that discounts will be released for the final three months of 2022, but they will be targeted (likely to Annual Passholders and Floridians), released closer to travel dates, and have limited options. Most resort and room types will probably offer meager savings, and there will be a lot of exclusions or ineligible resorts.
Given all of this, our recommendation would be to book something now if you’re definitely planning on an October through December 2022 trip to Walt Disney World. Do so with the expectation that the price quoted when making the reservation is the final price you’ll pay–in other words, don’t “go big” with the assumption that a deal will knock that price down to something more palatable.
If you’re not comfortable paying rack rates at Walt Disney World (we can’t blame you–they’re mostly absurd!), consider also booking a third party hotel that’s on-site or nearby Walt Disney World and has a flexible cancellation policy to hedge your bets. We love Swan & Dolphin, all of the Bonnet Creek Resorts, some of the Disney Springs hotels, and most of the places we’ve stayed at Flamingo Crossings.
Also, consider booking your on-site resorts with some strategy. If Walt Disney World does release general public discounts for October through December 2022, the above is still likely to be true. There will be a lot of exclusions and eligibility parameters you’ll need to “match” to apply the special offer to your existing reservation.
For the best chances of success, avoid booking Pop Century, Caribbean Beach, Yacht Club, Beach Club, Wilderness Lodge, and the Polynesian. Conversely, your best bets are the All Stars, Art of Animation Family Suites, Animal Kingdom Lodge, Coronado Springs, Port Orleans (both) and Riviera Resort. (Other Deluxes are wildcards, and it’s still unclear whether construction will take rooms out of commission at BoardWalk and Grand Floridian.)
Ultimately, that should help explain what’s going on with the lack of discounts being dropped for October through December 2022 at Walt Disney World. It should also help you plan accordingly, and make alternative or backup reservations in case deals don’t come through. That’s the goal of this post–to help you hedge your bets and prepare for a repeat of last year.
Still, it’s possible that this is premature. It’s not uncommon for Walt Disney World to hold back room availability, to release more inventory, or for there to be system errors. All of that has happened before, and times that appeared fully booked ended up having ample availability. That might be what’s happening here. I doubt it, as we first started looking into this a few weeks ago when discounts weren’t released on time, and it’s gradually gotten worse since then.
Honestly, I’d love nothing more than to be wrong. A new special offer being released next week with great rates for late September through the end of the year and tons of availability would make all of this unnecessary fear-mongering. Contrary to available evidence, I don’t normally enjoy sounding stupid–but I happily would take the loss here!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you expect Walt Disney World to release Fall/Holiday 2022 discounts? Think all of this is premature, and holiday discounts will be aggressive due to pent-up demand fizzling out, inflation hitting consumers, etc? What do you think is driving the availability issue at Walt Disney World? Do you suspect Walt Disney World holding back rooms is the primary driver? Or, is pent-up demand the big issue, with people making up for lost time traveling and not caring how much they’re paying? Think the housekeeping, dining, bus driver, or other staffing shortages help explain the problem? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We booked Thanksgiving week(11/19-11/27) back in September at Pop and I wouldn’t say it was cheap or affordable but it was what we expected to pay nonetheless. We’ve gone Thanksgiving week a couple times now and love it regardless but in the past we have been able to retroactively apply any released discounts and also managed to snag free dining through thanksgiving 2019 due to us checking in on the last day of the deal. If they release anything, I don’t think it’ll be spectacular but would still be surprised.
We have 3 rooms booked at wilderness lodge packaged with tix for Jan 5th thru the 15Th if a deal comes out can we get it to reduce the amount and will they credit us the discount back ?
If disney resort capacity for Xmas season is such a high level which is causing the high prices and limited availability, does it make sense that no MK XMas Party dates are sold out yet?
Yeah, as it’s still really early so people haven’t necessarily locked in that part of their plans yet. MVMCP is also popular with locals, who wouldn’t have a hotel reservation. Another possibility is that people are already stretching their budgets for the hotel stays, tickets, etc., and will balk at another pricey add-on.
With that said, I still expect most MVMCP dates to sell out…it’s just not surprising that that hasn’t happened yet.
This has been like this for months. I’ve been checking this out since early spring at the early December, pre-Christmas slots, and it’s seemed abnormal. Then again, maybe a lot who Covid cancelled last year rescheduled for the anniversary Christmas holidays.
I’d tend to think that WDW would’ve freed up some of their artificially suppressed room capacity by this point, but it it doesn’t look promising at this point.
You weren’t kidding that there are slim pickings for resort bookings October through December. There’s hardly anything for a week stay! I can’t believe they have not released any winter discounts. Disney’s greed is really becoming apparent over guest satisfaction. I miss how Disney World was a few years ago. I’m glad I got to visit a few times before it went downhill. Don’t get me wrong I still like it. It’s just getting harder and harder to vacation there. Chapek needs to go Adios
Why would they offer discounts when they barely have any rooms available? Discounts are meant to entice guests to book when they need to boost occupancy – that clearly isn’t an issue right now.
True. But, a lot of people were wait it on winter discounts
My wife is a planner- she likes things scheduled way in advance. We went last December and booked a trip for this December within a month of getting home lol. We did plan an April trip right after but it was more of a catching up because of covid trip. Booking way in advance does seem pretty fair price wise I will say- nothing amazing but fair.
Oof. I made our fall reservations and got hit with a one night rack rate for a cabin. The rest fell under a deal. Never again.
I’ll wait and see what comes under a discount and plan my Christmas party around that. We are local and have flexibility but the rack rates are crazy. We are also Hilton Honors and Marriott Bonvoy so something will for sure come up for winter. I cannot do rack rates they are just gross.
I wonder when Disney is going to return to some semblance of their former glory, with Magic Pass, decent Annual Pass offerings, great housekeeping, treating customers like royalty, etc. I still love Disney and won’t stop going, but the last trip made me wistful for the good ole days. My next trip is just a one-day Very Merry Christmas visit in December, since I live only one hour away.
I meant Fast Pass +, not Magic Pass. haha. 🙂
As long as Disney (and any other corporation) treats their shareholders with higher regard than their customers, those days are gone. The organisational mindset has shifted from strengthening a strong customer base to quarterly dividends. Customers are more easily replaceable than deep-pocket investors.
Minor nitpick, but Disney is not currently paying dividends, either.
The best way to “win” or come out ahead is by subscribing to Disney+ or Hulu. Content production for those unprofitable streaming services is currently being subsidized by…pretty much everything else.
I have Disney+ and Hulu and bought a few shares of Disney stock after it plummeted to a 52 week low after the Reddy Creek (because obviously it wasn’t going to stay at a historic low. Duh) So I guess I get my “discount” there but I still have sticker shock on these rack rates.
Agree we’re getting late in the game for a decent discount being released for at least late September into October. Between ADRs and park reservations, WDW’s own pre-game rules make last minute releases a real challenge for anyone other than Floridians. And its no easy thing for locals either. Add on trying to book $ last minute flights and booking time off work with late notice and its a real bar to out of state and international guests. I’m regearing to a possible 2023 trip whether its January or next September and timing will depend on any discounts. Will also see what’s up with the dining package next year. Who knows. Sometimes wonder if even WDW knows anymore. Sure I’m not the only one saving my vacation dollars. Universal looks better and better particularly their value resort hotels.
Hi Tom,
Do you have an idea when/if discounts will be announced for Jan-March? Thank you
We are booked in the week of your screen shot. Have traveled that week before. Am I going to hate this trip due to much higher crowds or do you think it’s more a staffing issue that availability is limited?
Contrary to popular opinion, on-site hotels constitute a minority of park visitors on any given day. There is usually a correlation between high occupancy and high crowds, but it’s just that–correlation. The root causes of high attendance and high occupancy usually go hand in hand, but not always.
There could be a special event, convention, or something else that’s impacting resorts that particular week. If off-site hotels aren’t particularly busy, park attendance and crowds still could be moderate.
Hi Tom! We just booked All-Star Sports from Dec 26-31. Typically, when I travel, I don’t book or buy things unless it is fully cancellable/refundable. The room reservation is, but tickets are a little different. Usually, I don’t purchase tickets until about a week or two out. However, given that the park reservation system is relatively new, especially for holiday crowds, I have no clue when to buy my tickets and make my reservations. I don’t want to risk the park reservations booking up for that week. We won’t be doing sit-down meals that week, so the 60 day reservations don’t matter much. Do you have a good idea of when the latest we should purchase park tickets to make reservations for that week is? Thank you! 🙂
If you book as a package with tickets and hotel together, you can cancel tickets and hotel up until 30 days before. I’d call and have them change your booking to a package! Then you can make reservations but have the chance to change or move. It’s only $200 deposit to do this too – instead of one night deposit. Also, that week is usually one of the most popular that I’d do it no later than Sept./Oct. I’ve seen people with hotels and never made reservations and end up with a sad week. I book my travel clients park reservations asap after booking just their hotel!
I was wondering about this. Pop century was sold out that whole week, every room in every category for months now. I was noticing pop being without rooms at all back in may or June. It was the week of the pop Warner and I know they moved to universal last year but you know business is business so I was worried that there were some back room negotiations to try and get pop Warner back so they were holding rooms in case that happened. Same with one of the all stars back multiple months ago for that same period of time. I decided to book swan because I really couldn’t handle the thought of booking pop only to find out Disney and pop Warner had reached a magical deal to bring back the dance competition and then I’m stuck at a hotel with cheerleaders and no other availability!
What might be more likely is that some of the Pop Warner groups have independently elected to book Pop Century because they prefer it.
Also, that time of year is really popular with repeat visitors and WDW fans, and Pop Century has a HUGE following. (For good reason–it offers solid value for money.)
FYI I was checking the other day, and Swan and Dolphin’s AP discount was still good through the holidays. The week of Christmas had nights as low as $239.
Thanks for the heads up–that is really great pricing! Also a good reminder that I need to finish up my Swan Reserve review.
(Oh, and forgot to mention this in another comment, but VERY envious of your Morocco trip. That’s high up our travel bucket list!)
Tom, do you know the status of DVC villa renovation at GF? The resort studios look amazing but wondering about the other DVC rooms. Do we know if construction on those has started or if it’s imminent?
Staying in one in January 2023 and wondering the odds of getting a renovated one!
To my knowledge, it’s totally finished.
We have a DVC (point rental) stay planned for early/middle December, but we realized we needed to go down a day earlier than originally planned because of flight options. I had been dragging my feet on booking a room(s) for our party of 6 for the extra day. We had originally planned to try an All Star Music family suite for the first time. When I finally went to book last week, we found nothing except rack rate DVC resort villas, and that is definitely not in our budget. All was not lost as I was able to get a decent rate at the Swan for the night we need, but I was sweating it for a minute.
In the past, we have looked at booking rooms and there was nothing available. Then a deal was announced and suddenly there were rooms. Could Disney hold back rooms for an anticipated deal?!?
I think that would be more coincidence than anything else. Why hold them back for a deal when those rooms could be sold at full price?
I am waiting for the announcement of the Tron opening date before booking another trip. I have been casually looking at dates in December in case that’s a possibility and noticed it’s already slim pickings. The rates are really outrageous for the moderates as well. My kid has been begging for Caribbean Beach Resort after she saw the pool when we dined at Sebastian’s Bistro. The pirate rooms are the only ones available when spot checking dates in November and December.
I do have to wonder if Disney as a whole is just having trouble getting things done right now. Besides the fall/Christmas discount delay you mentioned, early registration for the RunDisney Springtime Surprise opens in just 12 days and Disney still hasn’t announced the events or theme (despite some good-natured-for-now ribbing on social media) which seems very unusual as well.
“I do have to wonder if Disney as a whole is just having trouble getting things done right now.”
This is absolutely true.
Those fears of lost “institutional knowledge” back when they laid off tens of thousands of Cast Members in 2020? Incredibly well founded.
Who is paying these rack-ish rates? I consider myself fairly wealthy and cannot fathom how anyone can spend so much to basically fall unconscious at the end of a busy day,. it just bewilders me.
All right. Apparently unsuspecting people who can’t afford it. My sister came to visit us while we were on property and there was a horrific storm that knocked out the power in the area all the way back to her house. She was stranded there with no traffic lights etc. We are military, Florida resident, passholders, and Disney Visa card holders. They charged her over $600 for a base room at Beach club. Here’s the kicker She didn’t check in until after 11:00pm and was out before 8:00 a.m. I tried to speak with a manager and he treated us as if we were dirt beneath his feet. So apparently the only people that pay the price are the people that have no choice.
Lots of people take “bucket list” trips to Disney and really don’t care about the price. They only go once and they go all out. That’s probably a big chunk of the deluxe guests. The other category are people like my family who (while we try not to pay rack rate!) we really enjoy our resort and spend a LOT of time in the pools and hanging out there. We aren’t in the parks from open to close. Since a day at Typhoon Lagoon costs about $240/day for a family of four, upgrading to beach Club to access Stormalong bay probably doesn’t seem that bad to some guests. Just some thoughts. But yes those rack rates are ridiculously high right now.
Regardless of who or why people book these rooms at outrageous prices, it would seem Disney has no issues with filling up their hotels to capacity. That’s incentive enough for them to continue charging these prices.