Autumn Off-Season Arrives Early at Disney World
After wait times and crowds skyrocketed during the middle of last month and peaked at the end of July, the off-season has arrived early at Walt Disney World. This post will take a look at August attendance thus far, and offer theories for the decline.
Obviously, the best explanation is the most obvious one: that this happens every year at Walt Disney World around the time when school goes back into session. However, the decline began earlier than normal in August 2021, so that’s not the singular explanation.
When looking at historical data, we throw out last year entirely. Wait times increased heading into the fall off-season last year even as hours were cut, but the big difference there is that attendance sloped up from the low lows of July all the way to Thanksgiving. It was a total anomaly, likely due to more and more people growing comfortable visiting theme parks.
Rather than theorize about the decreasing crowds, we should probably first provide supporting wait time data for that underlying premise. Otherwise, we’ll get the inevitable “I go every year and last week was the busiest it’s ever been!” comments. (This is not to diminish current crowds–it’s still busy, hot, and the lack of FastPass exacerbates everything–just to say wait times have fallen significantly since late July.)
Let’s start with a look at Magic Kingdom crowds. For context since the graph is a bit difficult to read, the two highest red bars on the far right side are July 27 and July 28 (all graphs courtesy of Thrill-Data.com).
July 28 owns the dubious distinction of having 2021’s peak wait times thus far. It’s also the date we did our most recent Magic Kingdom Rope Drop Report: Busiest Day of Year at Park Opening. I’m very glad guests have received a slight reprieve from the crowds since then, as that was miserable.
While attendance is still elevated, average wait times are down considerably since their summer highs. From 50 minutes at the end of July to 27 minutes on August 13, 2021.
The slowdown is even more pronounced at Animal Kingdom.
The average wait time there on July 28 was 57 minutes. This week, averages have ranged from 27 minutes to 31 minutes.
Hollywood Studios is also seeing lower wait times, but the fall-off has not been quite as extreme as Magic Kingdom or Animal Kingdom. The July 28 average of 51 minutes dropped to 33 minutes on August 13. For this entire week, DHS averaged a 40 minute wait.
When it comes to “feels like” crowds, DHS gives Animal Kingdom a run for its money. Not only are huge swaths of the park hot and unshaded, but the lack of entertainment and other filler leads to an even greater perception of high crowd levels. (In other words, even when the data shows lower crowds at DHS, we hear “no way, it was bad” from readers. They’re not wrong.)
Then there’s Epcot. Even when the other parks saw soaring attendance last month, Epcot was relatively flat. We explained our theory behind this in last month’s Epcot Crowd & Construction Report. Basically, it’s because the artificial capacity caps that were redistributing attendance to Epcot earlier in the spring and summer are largely gone. Demand is settling into more natural patterns, which means fewer people are “forced” to visit Epcot for lack of other alternatives.
Nevertheless, it is interesting that not even the Epcot Food & Wine Festival can buoy crowds or coax out locals. The above numbers should also help explain why Walt Disney World is doing a full month of Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure previews and opening Space 220 Restaurant in September. It’s likely an effort to pull forward demand from locals, freeing up October capacity for tourists. (And/or simply capturing extra visits from locals.)
Finally, let’s smooth out all of those parks and numbers with a look at average weekly wait times across the entirety of Walt Disney World. The last two bars are the first two weeks of August; the two bars before that are the final two weeks of July.
Thus far, wait times have only retreated to their mid-June levels. However, that’s what we’ve previously described as the “sweet spot” when capacity was still capped at a low level (and many days were fully booked) but attraction efficiency had dramatically improved. Now, there is effectively no limit on attendance–the entire Park Pass reservation calendar for August is green. Moreover, wait times will likely continue to decrease. So, what gives? Why have off-season crowds arrived already?
Our first theory is that this slowdown was an inevitability. It’s the natural conclusion of pent-up demand exhausting itself as the summer travel season drew to a close. After scorching spring and summer travel seasons during which Americans made up for lost vacation time, people have gotten their fix and are preparing for the school year.
As for the more pronounced and earlier than normal slowdown, that could be partially attributed to the lack of international visitors, conventions, and group events that would normally sustain the off-season after school starts going back into session. Another big component could be Walt Disney World fans who normally visit this time of year, but are postponing trips until October for the start of the World’s Most Magical Celebration. That thus makes this a “sweet spot” for crowds.
None of this is a huge surprise and would’ve been foreseeable months ago. In fact, our Pent-Up Demand at Walt Disney World: Scorching Summer or Full Fall? was published on March 9 and made all of these very predictions.
We’ve since updated both our August 2021 Crowd Calendar and September 2021 Crowd Calendar and more or less reiterated the same sentiment in those, with the only real wild card being the resumption of Annual Pass sales. (I think the initial impact there will be fairly negligible.)
However, pent-up demand fizzling out is not the only explanation. As we’ve noted elsewhere, trip cancellations have been on the rise in recent weeks, driven by Florida’s record case numbers and the reinstated indoor mask rule. It should go without saying, but different people are cancelling for different reasons.
In talking with travel agents and third party vendors we know, all have stated that they’re seeing a high volume of cancellations. In some scenarios, those are outpacing new bookings for the coming months. Of course, that’s entirely anecdotal and constrained to who we know–but the sample size is large enough that it’s likely close to accurate.
However, it does conflict with what Disney CEO Bob Chapek said on the recent earnings call, when asked about the Delta variant’s impact on bookings. He stated that park reservation demand for the current quarter is ahead of last quarter’s attendance numbers and the company is “still bullish” about Walt Disney World going forward.
As we pointed out in analysis of Disney’s earnings call, that quarter-to-quarter comparison isn’t apples to apples. The last quarter encompassed April through June, which had lower capacity caps and many fully booked days, meaning attendance was artificially limited. At the beginning of the quarter, that limit was 35%. It was significantly higher (probably at least 65% or 70%) by July. So of course the actual attendance for the current quarter would be higher. That doesn’t mean actual forward-looking demand is still as high.
Decreased demand and rising travel trepidation is corroborated by…pretty much everything else. Per ABC News, TSA has reported lower screenings, airlines have warned of growing cancellations, airfare is dropping, and the purchase of travel insurance is on the rise. (Nevertheless, travel numbers–from TSA screenings to airfare–are all up sharply as compared to last year at this time.)
Most notably, Southwest–which might as well be the unofficial airline of people visiting Walt Disney World–warned investors that it’s seeing mounting cancellations and slower bookings due to the Delta variant. Other airlines have expressed similar sentiment in their earnings calls. It’s to the point that Southwest said it probably won’t be profitable for the quarter, even as demand for the upcoming Labor Day holiday remains strong.
Turning to Americans themselves, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading saw a dramatic drop in early August as the Delta variant increased fears. The consumer sentiment index tumbled to 70.2 in its preliminary August reading. That is down more than 13% from July’s result of 81.2 and below even the April 2020 mark of 71.8 that was lowest of the pandemic era.
Morning Consult has been gauging when consumers will return to normal activities, like attending movie theaters, concert venues, and amusement parks. After bottoming out at 15% in the beginning of January, that number now soared to 51% of the population on Independence Day. It has since retreated to 44%. As with airline numbers, that’s still significantly higher than last year at this time–nearly triple–but it’s a quarter-to-quarter decline when continued improvement was expected prior to the Delta variant raining on the parade.
Purely speculative, but I suspect there is even more travel trepidation for Florida than other states. While the state benefitted from its early reopening this spring, the reverse is likely true due to rising cases now. Orange County officials have noted that they’re seeing convention and group booking cancellations. It’ll be interesting to see what the Orlando International Airport traffic statistics show for July v. August.
Ultimately, this bodes well for those with Walt Disney World vacations planned for the remainder of this month and September 2021. I don’t want to get out over my skis too much, but it should give some “breathing room” to crowds in October through December 2021, too.
The reasons for my, let’s call it, restrained optimism there are two-fold. First, we were previously forecasting that 3 month stretch to have Walt Disney World’s worst-ever crowds, so even a 10-20% pullback still means the parks will be incredibly busy. I don’t want anyone saying or thinking I promised low crowds due to the cancellations–it’s still going to be packed. Just probably not quite as packed.
Conversely, we’re getting to the point where cancellations could outpace new bookings for the remainder of the year. There’s an average lag of approximately 5 months between booking and traveling. It’s an inevitability that Florida’s case numbers will dramatically decrease this month. It seems probable the indoor mask rule will be lifted within a couple of months. Word will get out about low crowds, especially when they really bottom out in mid-September. However, all of that will be too late to significantly impact Fall 2021 bookings. To be sure, some people will take last minute trips, but in large part, the damage is already done. While I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it since Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary is such a wildcard, it would not be surprising if 2021 wait times peaked on July 28.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you cancelled a trip to Walt Disney World in 2021? Have any anecdotes of your own about cancellations? Conversely, are you considering a last-minute trip in September to take advantage of the anticipated low crowds? Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will hit record levels come October 2021, or will enough people cancellation to blunt the numbers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We cancelled our trip next week because we have a young son and the increased infection rate is concerning. We have quite a few friends who have done the same. The crowds usually drop off in August as well as we usually go the third week in August for that reason. Good article!
We canceled our late August trip due to Delta in Florida. For us, it wasn’t worth the risk with an unvaccinated kid (no judgment to anyone who makes a different decision for their family). We’re spending a few days at a local beach instead, where case rates are multitudes lower than in Florida.
Interesting article. Thank you!
I agree it is mostly COVID + seasonal changes! I’m just saying that if given the option of either annual passes or fast passes, I would have likely gone ahead with our September trip – knowing there was not too much pressure any given day. It’s the descriptions of hot miserable crowds with nowhere to turn that makes me liken Disney to an emotionally abusive boyfriend
Hi Tom. I have been reading this blog for several years but never posted before. I think I definitely represent the “tipping point.” My son and I long for Disney, but without Annual Passes OR Fast Passes I just couldn’t do it. Because we were previous AP holders who cancelled, I called the hotline and was told we qualified. Joy! I immediately reserved 4 expensive stays at Deluxe hotels through January 2022, starting in early September (to squeeze in a trip before school starts in NYC, with lower crowds) and waited for the call back to purchase my AP, which never came. When I finally got through to ask about it, I was told they have in fact suspended those sales completely, and will start selling the new APs October 1. Which doesn’t help us for September! I cancelled all our bookings. We have switched our plans to Universal, where I can book Portofino and back buy 5-day passes (with express pass) for far, far less than Disney. I’m still keeping an eye on COVID numbers. I think my relationship with Disney is over! It’s like breaking up with somebody I’m still in love with, but who’s back for me. Wish me luck…. your prediction of lower crowds already has me tempted to meet Disney for a drink…
To be clear, I absolutely think there is a tipping point. Moreover, I think Disney is going to hit it with many guests once pent-up demand fully fizzles out and the early months of the 50th Anniversary subside. (So maybe Spring 2022?)
All I’m saying is that I don’t think that explains what’s happening with crowds from late July versus early August 2021. There was no significant negative price increase the last few weeks–to the contrary, offseason rates are now less expensive than July rates. The current downturn is primarily about seasonality and the big umbrella of “COVID stuff.”
First, it’s not just Florida. Delta is surging all over the place. New York’s rate is up 219%. Second, people are getting breakthrough cases in significantly higher percentages than the CDC had been reporting, until it changed its methodology (it had been reporting from the start of the year, instead of current numbers). Delta is still much more heavily hitting the unvaccinated, but the vulnerability of the vaccinated, and an awareness of that vulnerability is increasing.
This includes that we’re finally getting preliminary numbers on that actual vulnerability. These numbers might change, but right now Pfizer’s own numbers (again, not final), show a protection rate of only 42% against Delta. Moderna is currently showing (again, not final numbers) a protection rate of 76% against Delta. Pfizer came out first and was also promoted for giving protection against variants, before Delta showed up, unfortunately. The result is that a lot of the population is much more vulnerable to breakthrough than previously thought, and that awareness is increasing.
We were there on July 28th, and it was indeed packed. We hit Rise of the Resistance in the morning and the line for Splash Mountain later that day. We got hot, we got soaked, we got hot again. The masks from the 30th on were miserable things to wear, because you have to wear them in outside queues including queues and lines that are completely outside. Slinky Dog Dash, in the 90s, sweat dripping down, breathing through a sweat-soaked mask for 90 minutes? So while there are people who are cancelling because of safety concerns, there are those cancelling because they don’t want to wear the masks.
“So while there are people who are cancelling because of safety concerns, there are those cancelling because they don’t want to wear the masks.”
From the article: “As we’ve noted elsewhere, trip cancellations have been on the rise in recent weeks, driven by Florida’s record case numbers and the reinstated indoor mask rule. It should go without saying, but different people are cancelling for different reasons.”
Disneyland is experiencing the same phenomenon only much stronger. I think the reason out here though is less Delta variant or travel-related but instead because now that Magic key was announced, lots of locals are just going to wait until they can get one of those. We were just in the parks (DL/DCA) on the 13th and crowds were incredibly light. We waited for a maximum of 25 minutes for everything except Web Slingers, which was probably closer to 40. All the usual choke points (Adventureland by Indiana Jones, Tomorrowland by Star Tours, etc.) weren’t choke points.. you could just walk through them.
I’ve seen the photos on social media and stalked wait times in the Disneyland app (as one does) and am VERY jealous.
I’m thinking/hoping Magic Key sales take time to scale up, so hopefully that’s still somewhat true when we’re there for Halloween Time!
@Michelle We did the same thing – cancelled due to spikes there. Hopefully the youngest of the population will be eligible for the vaccine this Fall. After that, we plan to book again (barring more severe outbreaks again).
Have you heard any mentions of outbreaks linked to the parks since they dropped many of the precautions? I’m hoping being vaccinated and masks indoors will be enough to protect us in September. I’m just hearing lots of anecdotal chatter about outbreaks with many vaccinated people still getting Covid-19.
I haven’t heard anything (and wouldn’t expect to), but the case numbers, test positivity, and community prevalence are so high right now in Orange County that it’s undoubtedly happening.
One thing to keep in mind is that September is still several weeks away, and today’s spiking numbers are tomorrow’s higher levels of population immunity.
For purely selfish reasons, I hope your predictions about the October-December crowds going down just that little bit prove to be accurate. Our Christmas trip is the most expensive WDW trip we’ve ever booked, especially if they’re not going to do fall and holiday discounts, and the crowd trepidation has us wondering if it’ll even be that fun, let alone worth it. FL getting past its peak so that it’s safer to be in Orlando by then but a reduction in the expected robust crowds would be great (and would hopefully prompt those discounts!).
I also hope if people are canceling 10/1 trips, they also remember to cancel their ADRs!!!
I’m not so convinced that Florida’s case count will decrease this month. School has been open for four days in Hillsborough County, and nearly 600 kids reported positive tests, resulting in the quarantine of 4900 students. I think we have a ways to go.
Also, it looks like your comment form is prepopulating with the name and email of the previous commenter.
I have really enjoyed your blog ever since I found it while researching for my own vacation. I have commented before on coming the last few days of Aug/first few days of Sept with my daughter. We would have preferred beginning of October, but the potential crowds from the 50th scared me off that. So mid to late Sept was second choice. But no resorts were available under the $300 a night price range. I’ve never been to Disney at the time we’re going, (it was a more of a, “If we want to come, this is the only time we can” situation), so I’ve been obsessing about crowds and weather, lol! I too have noticed what you are saying purely through the Disney app, (That you told me to download for Rise of Resistance!) I’ve been looking at wait times for rides in parks on the day we’ll be there to get an idea what time of day would be best for certain rides. So for example, we’re doing Epcot on a Monday. So the past handful of Mondays, I only look at Epcot on the map. And then I do the same for the other parks on their days. With all the parks, just comparing this past week to the ones before it, I’ve seen at least a 20 minute wait drop in all the headliner rides in every park. Even Slinky Dog and the Avatar ride, both of which always seemed to show high wait times, no matter what part of the day I check it. I’m hoping if it storms on us during our visit, at least wait times might be down a bit, lol!
Still on the fence about September in Orlando despite a number of reservations , mainly at fabulous universal passholder rates and dolphin. We would be coming for HHN and boo bash. Considering how expensive even I one day Disney ticket for magic kingdom is, the boo bash ticket would allow us to do mk at a more pleasant part of the day and probably allow us to do many more rides. And because of crowds, and possible heat exhaustion, the cost per ride from 7pm to midnight at boo bash would probably beat out the cost from 9 to 9 with a normal one day ticket. (And free pop corn).
Otherwise disney hotels and tickets have priced themselves out! We spent a week at universal at end of June beginning of July because an annual pass was cheaper than 2 days at Disney.
Had a great time but all came home with bad colds which I’m convinced would have been Covid had we not been vaccinated. Am worried not so much about Covid, but about having any kind of medical emergency in Florida while er’s are so crowded.
That being said, price is mostly keeping us away from Disney, and hospital situation may keep us away from Orlando in general.
Thanks for the analysis Tom. We are two weeks away from our next trip and glad to hear the crowds are backing down a bit. Anticipating large crowds, heat, and storms we were planning to do shorter visits to the parks early in the day and more resort/pool time.
If it’s of relevance, I am at DLP and note that that is pretty busy, despite maxed-out capacity controls! But the feels-like element may be higher, since in terms of precautions they’re where WDW was in February. Notwithstanding that, almost nobody is buying Premier Access, and it seems they use the real wait times rather than the posted ones for the purposes of activating Standby Pass (which therefore might as well be called Crush Pass…). Early days, but I’m beginning to think good riddance to FastPass; I have nothing against 30min queues to catch up on blogs like these 😉
“Early days, but I’m beginning to think good riddance to FastPass…”
That’s how many of us felt here until the summer crowds hit! 😉
Disney’s pushing of paid FastPass at DLP surprises me. That audience seems least receptive to upcharges, and it doesn’t seem like any of the past attempts have ever caught on. I’m not worried about how it’ll impact our future trips there, as previous incarnations never negatively impacted past visits.
Currently Magic Kingdom has no reservations available for the week of Thanksgiving. Any chance more reservations will become available? Does availability change often?
Any word on whether Disney will be offering their 25%-30% discount for hotels for the fall? Haven’t gotten the usual promotion yet.
It’s several weeks overdue at this point.
I’m not totally surprised by that–given the late announcements of the Port Orleans & All Star reopenings plus the cancellations now, I suspect Disney wants to wait until occupancy numbers settle a bit before releasing a discount. But if they don’t do release one soon, it’s not going to move the needle on bookings as much.
I think it’ll drop within the next two weeks. Possibly as early as Tuesday.
I agree. People will pay the higher new pricing but as Disney continues to make bank on the crisis and continues to raise park prices, it’ll be progressively harder to find people who will pay up. A “tipping point” has either been reached, or soon will be (those Christmas prices!?). Really pains us to see what Disney is doing. I know their covid losses were terrible, but sticking it to their main fan base and die hards, it hurts and in the future we’re considering spending our vacation dollars elsewhere.
To add to your anecdotal stats – we just cancelled our upcoming trip due to safety concerns. Our youngest isn’t eligible to be vaccinated, so we just don’t feel like we can take the risk.
Is it also possible that Disney has reached a tipping point with its pricing and people are deciding to try something else?
Prices have not increased from July to August. To the contrary, seasonal pricing has kicked in and traveling is less expensive.
While there’s always the possibility of a “tipping point,” it’s highly unlikely that it would show up in data this abruptly–and before the rumored increases/changes have even occurred.