Genie+ & Lightning Lane Predictions for Disney World in 2024
Over the last few years, we’ve heard more complaints from fans about Genie+ and Lightning Lanes than anything else at Walt Disney World–even the end of Magical Express. Lots of changes have already been made to address the problems and shortcomings of the system, with more on the horizon. This offers our list of predictions for 2024 about the good & bad ways paid FastPass will continue to evolve.
We probably can all agree that paid FastPass has its share of problems. First and foremost, as the moniker suggests, it costs money. Paying for what used to be free stinks. Not only that, but there have been issues with user interface and so many policy quirks and changes that it’s tough to stay on top of everything. Even setting all of that aside, Genie+ would still be a step backwards as compared to FastPass+ for many WDW vacation planners even if it were still free. (But again, it is not.)
The good news is that Genie+ has already improved, and almost everything on our list of predictions below is positive. More steps in the right direction, both big and small. The bad news is that many fans won’t view these changes as such–due to preconceived notions, aversion to change, or the understandable hostility towards paying for what was once free. (Sadly, there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle on that, at least not anytime soon.) Anyway, on with the list of predicted changes to Genie+ and Lightning Lanes later in 2024…
Advance Booking Launces Late – We previously discussed the timing of advance booking in When Will Pre-Arrival Lightning Lanes Start at Walt Disney World? That offered a couple of different predictions for debut dates, one in March and another no sooner than mid-April. Basically, either with sufficient time before Spring Break season to make sure things are going smoothly or during the shoulder season when the parks are slower (meaning before summer vacation).
However, my other prediction was that the announcement offering specifics and a launch date would occurs roughly 30 days in advance–probably not muchless. They need to give sufficient time for planners with trips on the horizon to make their ride reservations; after all, this system entails advance booking.
It’s now mid-February and the start of Spring Break is one month away. Even if the announcement came tomorrow, it would be implausible for rollout to occur during a slower season. Given that, it seems highly likely that pre-arrival Lightning Lane reservations aren’t happening until sometime before the start of the summer tourist season in June 2024.
Frankly, we view this as a good thing. One of the biggest problems with Genie+ was that it was rushed to market and not properly developed or tested prior to launch, necessitating a slow trickle of tweaks and features being implemented for two years after launch. Walt Disney World taking a slower and more methodical approach to this–even if it means the launch is delayed–is absolutely the right call. Get it right so fans hate it less. (Many are still going to hate anything that isn’t free, but it’ll have a higher ‘approval rating’ if it’s at least user friendly!)
7 a.m. Wakeup Call Ends – One of the biggest complaints about Walt Disney World that we’ve heard from readers concerns the stress of having to wake up early to book ride reservations while on vacation. With the arrival of advance booking of Lightning Lanes, this would seemingly end. Well, except for those who still buy same-day, which will undoubtedly continue…but those guests probably aren’t getting up at 7 a.m. anyway.
So this is seemingly a safe prediction, at least as it relates to Lightning Lanes. However, we still don’t have a full picture of how the advance booking system will work, which means it could also entail a same-day component for everyone that somehow begins at 7 a.m. My guess is that it won’t, given the complaints. But never bet against Disney!
There’s also the issue of virtual queues, which are separate from Lightning Lanes but interconnected. After all, you might not want to buy an Individual Lightning Lane until finding out whether you’ve won the VQ lottery. Or you might feel the need to modify Lightning Lane selections based upon your success or failure with boarding groups. So even with pre-arrival Lightning Lanes, there will still be the “need” to wake up early on Magic Kingdom and EPCOT days.
This is not necessarily a prediction that the virtual queue system will change alongside Lightning Lane pre-booking, as VQs evolved a lot between late 2019 and mid-2020, with the current system being the best compromise to minimize complaints (short of retiring VQs completely). But I wouldn’t be surprised to see another adjustment made under the guise of ‘guest experience enhancements.’
Personally, I think the optimal approach that balances competing interests and complaints would be having the rides that’ll otherwise use VQs open each day with standby lines and then open the virtual queue at 10 or 11 a.m., and possibly again at 2 p.m. That eliminates the early wake-up call and gives guests choice, while also retaining VQs as a form of queue control.
Tiana’s Bayou Adventure is ILL – This might seem like a foregone conclusion, as every ride that has opened since Genie+ debuted has at least started out as selling an Individual Lightning Lane. And it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s an internal mandate that every new attraction needs to be directly monetizable via Individual Lightning Lanes in order to get funded.
However, there are also counterpoints to this. The first is that Tiana’s Bayou Adventure was greenlit pre-Genie+ and also not primarily as a marketable draw. The second is that Splash Mountain did not offer an Individual Lightning Lane. Third, there were probably ‘operational realities’ for that, which will also apply to Tiana’s Bayou Adventure, such as the necessity of winter refurbishments at some point and the fact that water rides simply are not as popular at night or when the weather is colder. Finally, if Tiana’s Bayou Adventure opens with an Individual Lightning Lane and nothing else changes, Magic Kingdom will be the only park with more than a single ILL attraction. It’ll have not 2, but 3.
Regardless of all that, I still think that Tiana’s Bayou Adventure is elevated to Individual Lightning Lane. It will be a marketable draw and even more popular than Splash Mountain for at least a couple of years–unless something goes terribly wrong with the execution of the reimagining, and there’s no reason to expect that after seeing the wowing Tiana Audio Animatronics. It also probably wouldn’t be great optics to have the new ride be relegated to Genie+ status.
The bottom line is that the odds are high that Tiana’s Bayou Adventure gets Individual Lightning Lane status, but it’s far from a sure thing–unlike Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run. Those were very obvious ILL candidates, whereas TBA is more TBD with compelling arguments for it going either way.
Seven Dwarfs Mine Train is Not – Nowhere is it written in stone that Magic Kingdom can’t have 3 Individual Lightning Lane attractions. At only a year old and still insanely popular, TRON Lightcycle Run will obviously keep its ILL status. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it isn’t relegated until the Beyond Big Thunder stuff opens, whatever and whenever that is.
Then there’s Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. This roller coaster is now about a decade old, but remains very popular and its Individual Lightning Lanes sell out with regularity. I don’t see circumstances changing between now and Beyond Big Thunder to materially impact its popularity. It’s also more of a known quantity; less refurbishment-intensive and weather dependent. Meaning Seven Dwarfs Mine Train could continue to sell out ILLs indefinitely on a more consistent basis than Tiana’s Bayou Adventure over the course of the next decade, not just the next few years.
Given all of that, will Seven Dwarfs Mine Train remain an ILL? There’s a strong case for it, but I don’t think so. Again, there’s a bit of optics at play here. If one park has 3 ILLs but the rest have only 1, which of those parks is home to most of the “best” rides? Not only that, but if there are 3 ILLs, does that disincentivize buying the Genie+ bundle?
Although ILLs would continue to sell, the same could be said for the newer Slinky Dog Dash at DHS, and yet, that’s a Genie+ attraction. It’s also just not a good look at a time when Walt Disney World is constantly accused of being greedy. All things considered, the safe and guest-friendly move is downgrading Seven Dwarfs Mine Train.
Onsite Advantage Returns – During the last few earnings calls, the domestic Parks & Resorts have had lower results due to decreased revenue at Walt Disney World, with the following explanation: “lower volumes due to decreases in attendance and occupied room nights, both of which reflected the comparison to the 50th anniversary celebration in the prior-year quarter.”
In plain English, this means that hotel bookings are down. This is also relative to 2021-2022 when the 50th was in full swing in pent-up demand was running hot and Walt Disney World was breaking records. That explains how bookings can be down, but there are still dates when resorts are sold out.
This also means that Walt Disney World did not have to offer incentives to get guests to stay on-site at the time when Genie+ launched, which is why they largely didn’t. They also didn’t do much in the way of discounting at the time, whereas special offers are back in full force–Walt Disney World has busted out the 2019 playbook, bringing back everything from bouncebacks to Free Dining. And that still isn’t enough!
An obvious “lever” to pull that would help move the needle on occupancy would be bringing back the on-site advantage for advance booking of Lightning Lanes. Under the prior FastPass+ system, it was a 60 day window for on-site and 30 day for off-site. Our expectation is that Lightning Lane pre-arrival reservations will be a much shorter timeframe as a whole than the old FastPass+ system.
Our bet would be that there will be an on-site perk for Lightning Lane reservations, perhaps 14 days vs. 7 for off-site guests, or maybe 30 days vs. 14 for off-site guests. Regardless of the exact number, we’d expect booking timelines of a month or less, and a week or two headstart–at most–for on-site guests.
No matter what it ends up being, this will be huge for on-site guests. It could be only a single day head-start and it’d still offer a big competitive advantage! If you want Slinky Dog Dash, Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, Frozen Ever After, and other popular Lightning Lanes…you’ll pretty much need to be staying on-site! Given the need for higher occupancy stats and the fact that this is how it worked under FastPass+ in the past, I’d be shocked if there’s no on-site advantage for Lightning Lanes once the new system launches.
It Breaks the $50 Barrier – I’m going to hedge my bets and clarify that this means $50 after tax. It seems like this is the trajectory, and logical pricing during the holiday season. After all, the cost of Genie+ set a new record of $29 at Christmas 2022, then hit $35 the following Easter, then $39 at Christmas 2023. And the paid FastPass service sold out repeatedly at each of those record price points.
It thus seems like an inevitability that Genie+ reaches $45 this Easter and $49 (~$52 after tax) around Christmas 2024. That’s a fairly safe bet given the trend line since the system launched for $15 plus tax with no seasonal pricing and no per-park pricing.
However, my prediction is based less on precedent and more on upcoming move to the pre-arrival booking system for Lightning Lanes. I actually wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Spring Break maxes out at $39 and Walt Disney World saves the price increases for the new system. Advance booking coming with premium pricing for the luxury and peace of mind of booking at home seems both possible and probable.
On the other hand, it would be savvy to jack-up the price of Genie+ before rolling out the new system to make it look better by comparison. If Genie+ spikes to $75 over Spring Break and then the new system maxes out at “only” $50, it’ll look like Walt Disney World is doing us a solid and dropping prices! (I don’t think this will actually happen, but it’d be a slick move.)
Genie Vanishes – I would be surprised if Genie (the free itinerary builder) ever accomplished Walt Disney World’s goal of redistributing crowds and minimizing unutilized capacity. I’m not questioning whether it made a meaningful impact on congestion or capacity–it definitely didn’t. I’m wondering whether it ever did anything at all. Probably, I guess, because some dumb blogger tested it out a few times and he did things he otherwise wouldn’t have. So that’s an at least one idiot riding the carrousel when Peter Pan’s Flight had a short wait.
I’m skeptical any normal guests outside of those testing it ever materially changed their park touring behavior because of Genie. It was just so aggressively bad to the point that it defied credulity. If Walt Disney World wanted to use Genie as a sneaky vehicle for accomplishing their goal of redistributing crowds without real benefit to guests, it needed to be a little more believable. Instead, Genie was the equivalent of a GPS instructing you to drive your car into a lake. Unless your name is Michael Scott, you just aren’t going to listen because the guidance is so comically bad.
I suspect Walt Disney World finally “gets” this. Genie is still awful, which means they also don’t want to throw good money after bad in making the system not-worthless. Given all of that and now that enough time has passed, I also suspect that they’ll use the launch of advance Lightning Lanes to make a clean break and eliminate Genie.
But what about the Genie+ name? Can there be a plussed version of something without the regular? It’s a somewhat similar story there, but less of a sure thing. Regardless, Genie+ is a toxic name on par with Monsanto, Philip Morris, Comcast, or Robert Chapek. While it’s certainly possible that the advance booking of Lightning Lanes will simply slot into the existing Genie+ system that would, frankly, be an awful idea. There’s so much badwill associated with Genie, that it just makes sense to rebrand entirely (again).
So why not turn the page backwards, and go with what’s old is new again (but now paid). Honestly, I’d call it FastPass Max or something like that and use Powerline as the character above the logo. I suspect Disney was (and maybe still is) reluctant to bring back the FastPass name because of the free versus paid stigma, but Genie+ was commonly called “paid FastPass” by everyone but Disney anyway. Why throw away the great FastPass branding for no real reason?!
It Gets A Lot Better – There are a few reasons for this prediction. One is quite simply what Walt Disney World has learned from Genie+ and FastPass+, and will be able to cherry pick the elements of each that people liked most, while discarding the aspects that were most hated.
That makes it sound simple, which is not even remotely the case. Different demographics prefer different systems, and queueing is ultimately a zero-sum game that creates winners and losers in equal parts. But it is possible for an outcome that feels more fair and doesn’t advantage or disadvantage anyone too much. From what we’ve heard, this is the needle they’re trying to thread with the new system, and we’re hoping for success.
Beyond that, I’m anticipating lower utilization for a variety of reasons that will have positive second order effects for guests in both the Lightning Lanes and the standby lines. Of course, this will have its costs (literally and figuratively) since queueing is (again) a zero-sum game, but the end result should be something that feels more fair and less exploitable.
As we’ve been saying for the last few months, part of this will likely be due to Walt Disney World overhauling DAS again. The DAS Abuse Crackdown that started last fall with tour groups was simply an opening salvo and not the endgame. It’s possible that this won’t come to fruition given concerns about litigation, but that should be viewed as the cost of doing business. If DAS changes do happen, that probably needs to occur before the Lightning Lane changes.
All in all, we’re looking forward to more massive changes to Lightning Lanes. Even though Genie+ has become much more usable since launch and is certainly better than it was 2 years ago (well, minus the higher price…but that part isn’t going to change!), there are still a number of shortcomings with the system.
Whatever comes next needs to strike a better balance between pre-panning and spontaneity, leveling the playing field to the greatest extent possible while (obviously) giving those who pay extra an option to skip the line. From what we’ve heard, it sounds like those are Walt Disney World’s goals with the next iteration of paid FastPass. Now let’s just see if they can actually stick the landing and execute on this!
For now, if you have questions about the basics of using–or not using–the paid FastPass service, see our Guide to Genie+ at Walt Disney World & Lightning Lane FAQ for all of the foundational need-to-know info. This whole system is confusing and convoluted, so you might have a question or two-dozen. That answers all of the most common ones we’ve been receiving from readers.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think of these predictions for Genie+ at Walt Disney World? Do you think any of these changes would be bad, or could have unintended negative consequence? Are you optimistic that advance booking of Lightning Lanes will improve the guest experience? Think that Walt Disney World will be able to thread the needle and balance the preferences of planners with spontaneous or lower-knowledge single day visitors? Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Thanks for the article – interesting to see all of the possibilities and wishes. I too struggle with paying for something I once had free. But that aside, I much prefer Genie+ to FastPass as I hated planning so far out in advance. To the comments about onsite perks not really appealing to families, I agree. What are your thoughts on the possibility of bringing back the early morning paid hours, or even offer deluxe hours in the morning vs night. Or even extending that onsite advantage 45 minutes to an hour? I just feel like they need more perks for onsite that appeal to families with children who aren’t going to be able to be out that late.
I’d like to see a version of Genie+ where pre-buying just gets you a pre-packaged itinerary of ~8 Lightning Lanes spread evenly across the day, which you could then modify on the day if availability permits. But maybe that’s too easy?
I think Genie is basically a good system at this point — in Anaheim. The two parks being much closer together, the lack of a 7am rule, and the overall shorter duration of Disneyland trips all make it more of an aid to time management rather than the nuisance that it can be in Orlando. The difference may be partially down to vibes, but I’m honestly not sure what they could do at this point to make it better; EEE (the real onsite benefit in Orlando) is simply better 9 times out of 10.
The sheer number of attractions, attractions for which line skipping can be useful (technically an important but second metric), and compactness inside the parks also makes the system work better in CA than FL. A much larger percentage of popular attractions needs to be added to the lineup of the non-castle FL parks in order to provide most people with a reasonable number of visits, and even then you’re going to need the return of tiers to manage earlier reservations.
Even then, the sheer size and internal logistics of Epcot may make a reservation system unwieldy, as we’re seeing in the post-pavilion process.
I think I’m one of the few that like Genie+ (except for the extra fee of course). But I like how Genie plus works and I feel it works better than Fast pass worked – at least for me. I feel like we were able to go on many more rides with Genie+ than we were with Fast Pass. I’m worried that with advanced booking, Disney will bring back the tiers for popular rides = you can’t Genie+ all the popular rides, you will have to choose only one. I’m hoping we will still be able to book same day rides as easily as we are now via the app. The only advance purchase thing I like the idea of is the opportunity to buy Genie+ ahead of time instead of waiting to purchase each day. It would be nice to have that part taken care of before we get there.
I like it just the way it is mostly. Honestly if they would add more rides to the ILL group like SDD, Remy, RnR coaster, Space Mtn and maybe EE I’d be happy. I absolutely love the ability to pay and select convenient times each day. And we are up early for Disney taking advantage of early entry each morning anyway.
I actually like Genie+ (its current functionality, not the paid aspect of it). I think it’s superior to FastPass+, and I really hope Disney doesn’t introduce tiers like with FP+ that limit how many of the best rides you can get or invents rules that impede stacking. That would dilute the value of Genie+ and make it not worth the high cost. I only want to see a few changes:
1) I do like the idea of giving on-site guests advance booking of a few days up to a week ahead (60 days out with FP+ was excessive and the opposite of spontaneity).
2) What about including Genie+ with deluxe resort stays, similar to how Universal includes its Express Pass Unlimited with its deluxe resorts? There needs to be more perks associated with paying the exorbitant deluxe nightly rates (on top of Genie+, especially if it reaches $50+). The extra evening hours in two parks on two nights per week outside party season feel like a pretty a limited offering that don’t really appeal to many families of young children. If Disney wants to increase hotel occupancy, particularly at the deluxe level, including Genie+ would be a good way to accomplish that. I wonder what the odds are of that happening.
I just don’t see how pre-planning becomes available before the second half of the year, as it seems like a lot of characteristics required are not built into the current system. As it is, I would think getting it done in 2024 requires a lot of lower level rehires and a lot of mid-level decision making that doesn’t get overturned by top level management. (For instance, I doubt Genie+ had tiering built into it, which is going to be necessary at most of the non-castle parks to let people reserve more than 1 reservation ahead of time.)
As for DAS abuse, I think one point that I was not understanding the first few times Tom discussed it is how shady tour guides were (and are, if the crack down still hasn’t happened), encouraging or even requiring it for people in their tour groups. It only takes a few such sketchy individuals to cause hundreds of extra fraudulent cases a day that would otherwise not be occurring.
In the vein of free dining being used to incentivize the slower periods, do you foresee free Genie+ or ILLs being offered as a limited promotion to deluxe guests, a la Universal Express Pass?
I am not looking forward to returning to advance bookings. I know you can’t please everyone, but the rigidity of FP+ really annoyed me and made vacation feel a lot more structured. I also feel for the non-planners that will be SOL once they arrive on the first day and see that all the big rides are booked. At least with G+ or the paper system is that they can learn how to use it for the next day of their trip instead of their next entire trip (if that even happens). Maybe a 1 advance day booking could work, but even then, they’d probably have to return to that annoying tiered system to avoid FP+‘s ride capacity issues.
Also, Tiana’s Bayou Adventure won’t get the ILL treatment- Country Bear Musical Jamboree will.
Got a weeklong DVC trip starting May 4th. Between advanced LLs and the outside chance of a DVC preview of Tiana’s, I’m hoping we don’t just barely miss the boat on some awesome upgrades!
A lot could change between now and then (in ways good or bad!), but as it stands, I think you’ll be about a month early for TBA previews.
Some thoughts —
The rollout of Genie+ was horrible, it was only half-finished. But now, while costly, it’s actually a pretty good system. I stress-tested it during Christmas 2024, and it worked really really well. Yes, it was expensive, but it gave a lot of bang for buck. The biggest improvement since launch — the ability to modify reservations. With the modification feature, you could really build your own afternoon itinerary easily. Just keep re-checking and pushing back your ride time. That made it easy to stack 3-4 premium attractions in the afternoon, even in Christmas crowds. The system might not be perfect, but aside from price, it’s now the best “FP” system that WDW has ever had. Paper fastpasses were fun, but hard to plan at all in advance, and requires a ton of physical running back and forth. FP+ required waking up at 6am, 60 days in advance… locking in plans 2 months in advance, and often being limited to just 1-2 premium attractions per day.
As to Advance Booking — I suspect Iger spoke prematurely. He quickly glanced at guest satisfaction surveys, saw lots of people complaining they missed FP+ advance booking, so tossed in an announcement of bringing back advance booking. But then the actual engineers had to figure out how to actually deliver on that promise, without bringing back all the problems of FP+!!!
My guess — you’ll get very limited delivery on this promise. Likely tied to an onsite advantage. Something as simple as, “on-site guests may purchase an ILL and book their first Genie reservation in advance.”
Finally, Tiana’s Bayou will be ILL — Not simply because it’s “new” — But it’s a new E-ticket that will be immensely popular. Country Bears will not get ILL when it re-opens.
And I agree, they won’t do 3 ILLs at Magic Kingdom. It undermines Genie+ marketing, if so many rides aren’t on Genie+. My guess is Mine Train finally gets removed, though it’s actually possible that Tron is the one removed. Question is, which is more popular. While Tron is a lot newer, it doesn’t have the family appeal of Mine Train.
Agreed with everything in your comment until this: “My guess — you’ll get very limited delivery on this promise.”
This is not my understanding of the scope and scale of contemplated changes. Of course, everything is subject to change until it’s official (and even then…), so there’s nothing to say that Genie+ guest satisfaction hasn’t continued to improve to the point that higher ups are now wondering, “should we still do this?” It’ll be interesting to see what actually ends up happening.
As for the ILL debate, it also might help that there’s more demographic overlap with TBA/SDMT than TRON. That probably is what helped them justify 2 ILLs last year in the first place–somewhat distinct demos for each.
I would love to see a poll of what guests would prefer…….
1) advance booking of the 7am selection plus 1 ILL purchase
OR
2) 3 advanced selections with tiers and having to use before booking another
My guess is guests would prefer option 1 75% to 2% for option 2
You’re more tied into the internal rumors than I am! So I’ll take your word for it.
Yes, good point in terms of demographics. Tiana’s Bayou won’t be quite as much “all families” as Mine Train, but it will have more family appeal than Tron. I just see the appeal of the Tron coaster somewhat limited in the long term, when the new smell wears off — The IP isn’t something that grabs younger guests. It’s not very kid friendly. It’s also not very older-person friendly either. For Disney, it has a pretty significant height requirement. Basically, it’s a cool really short coaster for those between about 13 and 40, who are into intense coasters. So I wouldn’t be surprised in either direction, as to which ride keeps ILL.
Great article, Tom! I know it’s difficult to predict anything IT related with Disney but your observations make a lot of sense.
It’s particularly interesting to see the part about hotel bookings being down. I’ve always though that the primary reason driving this was the elimination of the “Disney Bubble” you used to be in when staying onsite (Magical Express, luggage handling, free wrist bands, free Fast Pass, onsite check-in for flights, etc.) I believe this is – and will – be causing a slow but eventual decline in resort reservations due to the departure of long time loyal fans, and a declining percentage of first time fans becoming long time fans. This may be so slow moving that Disney doesn’t wake up to what’s causing it until it’s too late to reverse it.
That said, here’s what I’d do. Simply reinstate everything that made the bubble so good, but charge for it. I’m pretty shocked that Disney didn’t recognize how important the bubble was – and that people such as myself would be willing to pay to have it back. Disney has already proven that people are willing to accept their constant nickle and diming for everything, so why not do it in a way that restores the onsite advantages that us long time fans treasured?
Keep in mind that bookings are currently down relative to pent-up demand in 2022. They are still up as compared to 2019. So it’s not as if Walt Disney World is hurting–what we’re seeing is more like a (necessary) correction.
I still agree with your points about bringing back perks–I just want to properly contextualize.
We would be most happy with a pre-purchased pass giving access to all lightning and genie-x lanes for a specific date. We would regularly purchase one day for our DL trips and probably two days for our WDW trips (even if the access were for only one use of each ride per day).
I am wondering if we would find the pre-purchase ride tickets ‘sold out’ but available on third party web sites just like Disney restaurant reservations? Google ‘[restaurant name] reservation’.
Implementation of lightning/genie-x lanes could be improved at DL by keeping the Standby Lines moving by allowing x number of parties to enter alternately rather than ALWAYS allow all parties in the l/g lane entry before allowing any parties from the Stand-by Lane to enter.
I like a lot of your predictions, but I’m wondering if a price increase alongside the on-site advanced booking benefit could actually happen without losing significant sales. If I’m an average tourist doing an average amount of research (IE not reading this blog) and staying off-site, and I realize I have to pay $50 per person for Genie+ – which then has no good rides available because of pre-booking – I’m definitely not going to bother. I imagine they’ll want to increase costs, but that doing so will be a delicate balance of not losing customers. Right now, *everybody* basically has an incentive to buy Genie. Depending on what levers they pull though, they could end up forcing more people out. Maybe they’d make up for it in increased room occupancy, but….it will still require a lot of calculation to get those scales right.
This is a really good point!
Because of this fear, I would suspect/hope that WDW will try to balance the same day inventory to avoid disincentivizing people from purchasing same-day. With that said, guests still buy after arriving at the parks and seeing long lines right now, so never underestimate consumer willingness to buy their way out of inconvenience–even if they would’ve been better off doing so earlier.
I agree with this post 100%…….If they implement tiers where guests pre selections have to be used before making a new ride selection then both parties lose out…….The pre selection guests will only get one tier 1 ride and the day gests will get zero or next to zero………I dont know who would pay for that, either resort or day guests
As long as people pay for Disney and then pay for lightening lanes they will continue. It appears Disney wants to make it uncomfortable and impossible for some to visit and access any rides. We can complain all day but as long as we continue to spend the money, they will continue to charge more and more.
Thanks for the article Tom……I read up on Genie+ changes coming on every blog out there every single day and have been studying what potential changes could be coming.
The biggest issues I see are tiering and eliminating stacking by having to use pre selections before booking your next selection. I think this would severely devalue Genie+ and I am wondering if that, along with pending DAS changes, is causing the delay. Genie+/ILL has been a major cash cow and they cannot afford to have sales slump by making changes that are unfavorable. I actually prefer Genie+ to FP+ and I was a MAJOR FP+ advocate.
I think the only changes that need to be made are:
1) allow advanced booking for the first LL selection (the current 7am one) and one ILL selection for length of stay 7 days in advance, giving resort guests a head start (this preserves the inventory issues that plagued FP+ and also preserves stacking, the best part of Genie+)
2) allow re rides after a certain time of the day, as long as inventory is available
I do not think Tianas will be or should be an ILL and I think Seven Dwarfs will be and should be an ILL…..I think it popularity of Tianas will be fleeting and ILL sales will be bad after the initial wave is over in short order. If this happens and they move Seven Dwarfs to Genie+, then MK will only have one ILL and they will lose that constant revenue stream that Seven Dwarfs has consistently delievered
Last I knew, all of the specific ‘rules’ were not yet locked in (and probably wouldn’t be until there was a concept of the capacity they’d have for paid LLs), but I would expect tiering in the same ways FP+ had it, but with different twists. I definitely do not expect it to be only booking 1 LL in advance–it’ll be a ‘bundle’ of some sort.
As mentioned, balance is the name of the game. The end goal isn’t to perfectly please everyone (impossible), but to make it a system that more or less works for everyone and isn’t quite as easy for power users to exploit (also impossible, but they’ll try).
I just dont think that Genie+ will be worth the cost if you will only get one Tier 1 ride. Right now I can get multiple Tier 1 rides in every park just by stacking. I wonder if sales will be affected if they implement basically a paid FP+ system. I dont know why they would go back to a system that had just as many complaints a Genie+, and that when it was free……
“If DAS changes do happen, they probably needs to occur before the Lightning Lane changes.”
I know you have been treading lightly around this topic, but could you expand on what you mean by this? I get not wanting to change everything at once, but why do you think DAS needs to change prior to any more/advanced Lightning Lanes?
The DAS changes will curtail a lot of abuse, which would free up a ton of capacity. Saying that’s “needed” is probably not quite accurate on my part, but it is very much desired…and would allow the system to function in a manner very similarly to FastPass+ (but paid).
Judging by reader comments, many people massively underestimate how bad DAS abuse has gotten. There has undoubtedly been a significant increase in legit use over the last few years, but abuse is rampant. To the point that I wonder whether advance Lightning Lanes could work as well as FastPass+ did if the system rolled out without any other changes.
Thanks so much for sharing your thoughts on what may be coming up! Quick question: We are heading to WDW in late May- do you think the new genie+ will be rolled out by then? I’ve not yet used the current system and don’t want to spend loads of time studying and planning for a system that will be gone!
Honestly, I don’t know. It’s been a bit since I’ve heard anything, but I do know that at one point there was an internal “debate” about whether to push it to launch in January 2024 or wait until it was fully-fleshed out and actually ready to go. Obviously, it did not debut last month, so we know which side won.
My bet is that it launches when it’s ready, but with 30-40 days of lead time from announcement to implementation (meaning use, not booking) and avoiding a roll-out during a time when crowd forecasts are high.
That would make early to mid-May 2024 a great time to launch…but that depends upon whether it’s ready in the first place. And I know nothing about that.
I hate the Genie+ and ILL system. Outside of MK, Disney simply doesn’t have enough attractions. If on-site guests are allowed to book the most popular rides in advance, there will be no reason for guests who are not staying on-side to visit the parks, especially if all they are interested in are the rides. Universal is so much better when it comes to their paid express pass system.
With respect to Tiana’s Bayou Adventure, I don’t see this ride being an ILL outside of the hot summer season. Splash Mountain never had long lines during the cooler weather, because let’s face it, who wants to get wet when it’s cold outside. It may be an ILL when it first opens, but I predict this ride will quickly mover to Genie+. I don’t see Disney moving Mine Train to Genie+. This attraction is too popular.
With regard to your first paragraph, couldn’t the same have been said about FastPass+ and its 30 day head-start for on-site guests? Expect WDW to continue balancing the interests of both demos with same-day ride reservation refills–just like they do now, and did with FastPass+ before this.
I don’t really think WDW will want to bounce TBA and SDMT between Genie+ and ILL, so whatever decision is made, it’ll be deemed final (for now). I still think it’s TBA in the ILL slot, but they may need to “tone down” the splashes at certain times in furtherance of that. Because I agree in the long run–SDMT will probably be more popular than TBA in January 2027…or even on a chilly night in December 2024.
Thanks for this – we were just saying yesterday that if they plan to roll out the new system for spring break they better do so soon! We have a trip booked for May and honestly, if the system doesn’t change before that we’d be perfectly happy because know the current system! As always, thanks for your insight and thoughtful update. We love seeing your posts in our inboxes!
“…if the system doesn’t change before that we’d be perfectly happy because know the current system!”
This is the ‘vibe’ I’m getting from a lot of Walt Disney World regulars, even ones who don’t necessarily like Genie. Seems like one of those “better the devil you know…” kinda scenarios for a lot of fans.