What’s Up with Sold Out Disney World Hotels?
If you’ve searched for Walt Disney World resorts later this year, “this room type is unavailable for the dates, party size or offer selected” has probably become a familiar sight. This post will cover what’s going on with the lack of availability, sold out hotels, and offer commentary about what you can expect this fall and holiday season.
Suffice to say, Walt Disney World resort inventory is limited this summer and even worse for many dates towards the end of the year. Some hotels only have select room categories, while others are sold out entirely for broad ranges of dates. This is occurring occasionally for Summer 2021 travel dates, but is a more pronounced issue for October 2021 and beyond.
The simplest and most straightforward explanation for this is demand. Since last summer, we’ve been warning ad nauseam of “Revenge Travel” at Walt Disney World in 2021. That has been playing out since spring break, and now has arrived in full-force. People who postponed travel last year are now, in technical terms, making it rain. There’s a lot more to Walt Disney World’s hotel inventory situation than that, but there’s also a lot of validity to the phenomenon of pent-up demand….
The desire to travel after a year stuck at home should be self-evident. Beyond that, it’s worth discussing how Americans also have the funds to pay for it. The personal savings rate has surged by over 21% through the first quarter of 2021, and has been high throughout the last year as many Americans have been stuck at home and spending less money on travel, entertainment, dining, and shopping in the process.
There has also been trillions of dollars in economic stimulus, ranging from direct payments to generous child tax credits. Surveys suggests that the travel industry will be a primary beneficiary of this. It should go without saying that many people are still struggling after layoffs and an otherwise rough year. However, these data points are indicative of overall trends, not individual circumstances.
Anecdotally, we’ve already found higher prices for airfare, hotels, and more when pricing out a range of non-Disney travel. (The big exception to this is in major cities–it seems that beaches, National Parks, and other outdoor destinations are more popular than metro areas, which intuitively makes sense given the last year.)
Colliding with this pent-up demand is the “World’s Most Magical Celebration,” beginning on October 1, 2021.
No need to fixate or over-explain this one. Most of you are probably cognizant of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary, its significance, and how many fans have been postponing trips for the last year-plus to visit during these festivities. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that the anniversary will see its own type of pent-up demand, with many longtime fans and families planning years-in-the-making “homecoming” trips.
With demand out of the way, let’s turn to the supply of hotel rooms. One common assumption we’ve seen among fans since Walt Disney World reopened is that hotels are operating at limited capacity. It’s true that resorts have had reduced offerings, with fewer restaurants open and some recreation temporarily suspended. That’s not the same as intentionally leaving rooms unfilled.
To our knowledge, Walt Disney World has never stated that occupancy is (deliberately) reduced. It might’ve appeared that way last year and in early 2021, but that was a result of organic demand being low. In fact, we’ve discussed on multiple occasions how hotel occupancy was anemic and we regularly found last-minute Disney Vacation Club availability at resorts that would’ve normally been booked months in advance. Both of those things ceased to be true a few months ago.
With that said, there’s also nothing to say that Walt Disney World is not deliberately limiting capacity at its hotels. There would be a number of reasons why Disney might restrict guest levels at all or some of the resorts.
Physical distancing is a big potential explanation, at both the parks and resorts.
At the parks, physical distancing is in the process of being relaxed, but Park Pass availability still does not reflect this. In fact, every date for the rest of this month is unavailable at every single park. June 2021 currently isn’t much better, with most dates fully booked. If you’re visiting on a yellow date later in the month, hope you like EPCOT! It’s the only park available for resort guests through June 30, 2021.
A lack of Park Pass reservations could have caused Walt Disney World to limit hotel bookings for select dates or across the board going forward. After all, most guests wouldn’t be too happy to book a multi-thousand dollar vacation only to find they cannot enter any park. Except EPCOT, maybe. This could be remedied with attendance limits likely being increased in the very near future.
Resort guests who get shut out of the theme parks may find similar capacity “challenges” at the hotels.
As reported in our updated Guide to Pools at Walt Disney World, there have been problems with capacity-induced wait times at pools, particularly at the Value and Moderate Resorts that are open. It’s within the realm of possibility that guest satisfaction scores plummeted and/or managers at those resorts received extensive complaints after spring break season, and Disney made the decision to cap bookings going forward as a result.
Another possibility at those same resorts is physical distancing related dining or transportation woes. Since reopening, there have been reports of lengthy waits for Mobile Order pick-up at many food courts, with these problems peaking around spring break.
Same goes for transportation. We discuss how bad this was during spring break in Bus Wait Times at Walt Disney World. Long lines have also been a daily occurrence with Skyliner lines in the morning due to the one-part per gondola rule (thankfully, that just changed).
The obvious answer to these dining and transportation woes would be hiring more Cast Members. This is something we’ve discussed at length in a few posts, most notably in College Program Returns to Walt Disney World.
Suffice to say, there’s a labor shortage in Central Florida. Walt Disney World still has tons of unfilled positions even after recalling all eligible furloughed and laid-off Cast Members and going on a new hiring blitz. The tides are starting to turn on this, and all of the hiring and the expedited return of the College Program should start paying dividends by mid to late June.
To its credit, Walt Disney World has worked to address the bus driver shortage. If you’ve noticed a bunch of charter buses rolling around the resort, it’s not because LeBron is back. Rather, Walt Disney World has contracted with outside companies to provide additional bus coverage.
Nevertheless, the lack of housekeepers, cooks, lifeguards, and numerous other unfilled positions could mean that it’s simply not viable for Walt Disney World to operate all of the hotels at 100% guest loads, and consequently, bookings are capped.
From the outside, it’s impossible to state definitively whether staffing, physical distancing, and/or guest satisfaction are impacting hotel capacity, or the degree to which this is happening. It’s possible Walt Disney World has instituted an across-the-board occupancy level limit of 75%, some other percentage, nothing at all, or is doing so on a resort-by-resort basis. All we can do is speculate.
Even from the outside, one thing we do know is that the overall available room inventory is not even close to 100%.
As you can see in the 2021 Walt Disney World Hotel Reopening Dates, the complex’s entire resort portfolio has not returned. Notably, Port Orleans Riverside & French Quarter plus All Star Music & Sports and Animal Kingdom Lodge – Jambo House (hotel rooms) still don’t even have reopening dates.
That’s “only” 5 hotels at a complex with over two dozen, so it might seem insignificant. However, that lineup accounts for a disproportionate amount of Walt Disney World’s overall room count.
Combined, the two Port Orleans Resorts have over 3,000 rooms, which would make it the largest resort at Walt Disney World. The two remaining All Stars are even larger, totaling over 3,500 rooms. Not to be forgotten is the hotel side of Animal Kingdom Lodge, which has nearly 1,000 rooms.
To put this into perspective, these unopened resorts represent significantly more room inventory than all of the Magic Kingdom and Epcot Area Resorts combined. Speaking of the monorail resorts, those definitely are not operating at 100%, as refurbishments have taken significant numbers of rooms offline. Then there’s Club Level, which is not in use and also not available for booking at many resorts right now.
All told, approximately 10,000 rooms are out of commission and not bookable right now. That represents roughly one-third of Walt Disney World’s hotel inventory. Obviously, that’s not an insignificant number of rooms!
As for why the Port Orleans, All Stars, and Animal Kingdom Lodge still don’t have reopening dates, the reasons are not totally transparent. Our very strong suspicion is that it’s the same staffing woes detailed above. Huge resorts require huge numbers of Cast Members to reopen and run.
There are other theories as to why some of those still don’t have return dates, but we don’t buy them. The simplest and most logical explanation is that Walt Disney World got caught flatfooted when demand fairly quickly swung from one extreme to the other.
Keep in mind, it wasn’t that long ago that we were talking about record low occupancy levels at the resorts. As further ‘evidence’ that Walt Disney World didn’t expect this occupancy spike, they offered free nights to Cast Members earlier this spring, with those stays also taking rooms from the guest-facing inventory through September 25, 2021.
This is a good and bad news situation. The good is that we know at least 30% of Walt Disney World’s total room inventory is not presently bookable. Depending upon the potential unknown numbers of rooms being held back from the booking system at operational resorts, that number could be significantly higher–but not lower.
This means that as Walt Disney World hires and trains new Cast Members and the College Program scales back up, there should be a noteworthy increase in the number of available rooms.
The bad news is that there are no guarantees in terms of when or how many rooms return. It’s possible that by October, there will be 7,000 to 11,000 more rooms at Walt Disney World that are presently unavailable.
It’s also possible that number will be only a few thousand.
Another unknown is outstanding demand. In a normal year, most domestic travel is booked roughly 5 months in advance. That means many potential guests haven’t even tried to book Christmas trips yet. As the country and globe continue to reopen and more people become comfortable with certain activities–or in the case of international visitors, able to enter the United States–that window could be even shorter during this abnormal year.
Add to that likelihood the reality that a lot of resort/room/date combinations are already unavailable, indicating unsatiated current demand. It’s entirely possible that Walt Disney World could add every room on-property to the reservation system and still not satisfy demand for some popular travel dates this fall and holiday season.
In the near term, this is why Summer & Early Fall 2021 Room-Only Discounts at Walt Disney World are paltry. The percentage savings are bad, and the room options are even worse. That’s also why we cautioned to expect the same when fall and 2021 holiday season savings are released later this summer (probably in late July or early August).
Honestly, if you’re planning a trip October through December and must stay on-site, we’d recommend booking whatever is available now with the expectation that the eye-popping rack rate is what you’re actually going to pay.
Basically, any future discount for 2021 should be viewed as a pleasant surprise rather than a sure thing. We love Caribbean Beach Resort, but we’d be hard-pressed to pay over $200 per night to stay there; nearly $400 per night is a total non-starter for us.
If the rack rates you’re seeing right now are too pricey or beyond your comfort zone, consider booking a refundable rate at the Swan & Dolphin, Bonnet Creek, Disney Springs, Grand Cypress, Universal, or Flamingo Crossing hotel.
Ultimately, there are a lot of variables impacting the lack of hotel availability at Walt Disney World for the remainder of 2021. Some are patently obvious, others are unknowable. It should go without saying, but this is not a comprehensive assessment nor is it based upon any inside info of occupancy numbers, policies, or capacity caps.
We really only scratched the surface of what could be causing the room shortage and how it could play out in the months to come. Among other things, it’s possible that cancellations will be above average if more discounts aren’t released, various offerings do not return, or nothing truly special is announced for the 50th Anniversary. That coupled with more reopening and physical distancing being relaxed could result in a flood of availability…and in turn, aggressive discounts.
All of this is to say that we truly do not know how this is going to play out as October draws nearer. Our “crystal ball” has been hazy throughout this unpredictable reopening process. However, our view is that it’s always best to expect and prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and hedge bets. Plan accordingly if you’re debating a trip for the World’s Most Magical Celebration, Halloween, or Christmas and get something refundable locked-in now…or postpone your trip until 2022.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
How do you expect the hotel inventory problem to play out? Do you think Walt Disney World will reopen all remaining resorts and return other rooms to the booking system by October? Think this supply surge will be enough to satiate demand and result in more generous discounts? Or, are you more pessimistic about supply v. demand, availability, pricing, etc. later this year? Planning any “revenge travel” of your own? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Has anybody out there heard the potential re-opening for a typhoon lagoon? We are heading to Disney mid June and hoping for it to be open.
It’s my humble opinion that Disney have not played this very well. The Disney dining plan, lack of facilities, reduced ride and attractions availability have added to the woes. Over the pond here in the UK we are so frustrated at how the organisation has been shown to be lacking. Of course the dollar is king, but many of us here are disillusioned, and wonder where the magic has gone!
Universal on the other hand seems to have dealt with the situation in a much more positive way. Ah well, looks like Disney is out, and Universal is in for us.
Very thankful I booked my October stay at Pop a few months ago!
The split between hotel availability and the park pass calendar is fascinating. At this point, I would expect poor resort availability for the next couple months, as the park pass calendar is all yellow and gray thru July 28th.
However, with the notable & understandable exceptions of Oct 1st & 31st, the park pass calendar is COMPLETELY green from July 29th onward. And yet, resort availability is still terrible in August and beyond. Really weird stuff.
I understand holding off on Port Orleans & All Stars a bit longer (since they’re self-contained), but it’s surprising that they don’t seem to be reopening Jambo House any time soon, since the AKL has been up and running with all those DVC rooms for months now.
We’ll be there Sept 19-27, hoping to catch a calmer/less-crowded lull between the end of summer crowds and start of fall break/50th crowds.
I’m also intrigued by how this is affecting off-property hotels. My company is already planning a major conference in Orlando for early next year, and I’ve heard similar murmurs of others starting to plan similarly. Either way, Orlando is looking to be booming soon whether people are ready or not.
Thank you so much for this article. I have been wrestling with these ideas as we decide if it is wise to have a Disney Trip this year. We are thinking of staying at an offsite hotel at Disney Springs in November because we can’t stomach the huge prices at the Disney Resorts that have rooms available. We worry that the parks will be too crowded even though this is typically a low crowd time of year. There are still park passes available at this time. Do you think the parks will be overly crowded for Nov? It is so hard to know what is really going on.
I thought it was the strangest thing these past few months, looking at hotel availability at Disney World, And finding “no availability for these dates and party size.” All your theories, seem to make sense. Not sure why this phenomenon is happening :but, I think it is a collaboration of all that you stated. I am happy I booked back in November and February at it I split stay. Now I don’t know what to expect… A relaxing resort staycation, or a madhouse? LOL I guess we will find out.
Has anyone stayed at the resorts in the past couple weeks? We are headed down there In a week… Wondering what Saratoga springs & Riviera resort will be like. If anyone has stayed there, let me know your experience 🙂
I don’t know if there is any accuracy to this, as it is purely conjecture on my part, but I’ve wondered if some small part of some of the booking availability difficulties could be rooms taken out of rotation for a single day for cleaning/turnover. I know when we stayed last summer in a 2-BR, we were trying to get a later checkout because we were driving back to Delaware, but it was when the remnants of a hurricane was coming across from the Gulf across the Carolinas. There were a lot of limitations on what we could do at the resort with showers being closed, etc., so we were trying to take our time and leave in the afternoon so as not to be driving through the storm. A difference of about 4 hours meant the storm would clear through before we got there. We were told that house keeping basically needed an entire day to clean the room in accordance with the new cleaning protocols (which, although we know that’s mostly theater and not doing much for Covid – I really feel like they should always be cleaning hotel rooms that well between guests, because . . . otherwise . . . *yuck*). Another example, when we stayed in May, when we arrived in the morning, we were shown what room we were being given, but we asked to have a different one. I don’t know for sure, but it seemed to be implied that the first room was already available to us or would be very soon, whereas by opting for a different room, we had to wait until much later for it to be cleaned. If the first room was already available, then there’s no way there were guests in it that checked out that day. However, I believe there was no availability at the resort during that time period (Copper Creek, by the way), so that room was not used, potentially, the night before, but also not available for booking.
I’ve wondered whether they were building some time into availability for rooms to, at least sometimes, basically be empty for a day between guests. While this wouldn’t have the impact on availability to the level seen across the resorts, I think this could have some at least some impact, if that’s even the case.
Swan/Dolphin were totally sold out a while ago for the 3rd week of September a while ago, and I don’t think they’d also be limiting hotel rooms. At this point I’m just hoping fireworks are back and the transportation is cleaned up. I may take that advice and grab an off site hotel with free cancellation, because I’ve had rack rate Pop Century booked at $209/night.
Tom, just use your inside pull to get Riverside open for me the first week of November, will ya? No? Okay, I’ll just wait like everyone else then. 😉
I booked wilderness lodge for December a few months ago when reservations opened up. So glad I did as like Tom says, there is no availability at all now. I’d like to add a day but can’t but am very happy to have what I have. Looking forward to seeing the Christmas tree again!
I was just wondering if they are in fact booking hotels at 75% will that make guests more or less likely to get a complementary upgraded room?
I tried to book a room at All Star Movies for February/2022 and its all sold out!
Do you think there are any chances for more rooms to pop up?
There is no way the hotel room issue is due to crowds. Something funky is going on with rooms being held by travel agents or something. Every crowd calendar is forecasting typical low crowds in some November weeks, yet there is no on-site availability. I suspect that at some point as those dates move closer, you’re going to see a massive block of rooms released to the public. I would book for November and stay offsite and have a great time. Then get the room onsite later if you want it that much.
I booked boardwalk about a week after they dropped the 25% discount. I wanted beach and yacht club, end of Aug and, just as Tom said, no availability
Yes, you can apply the discount to an existing reservation
If I book a room now at rack rates to go to Disney next year and all of a sudden, there are huge discounts, can I cancel and switch to something with these huge discounts??
I’m truly in shock that more openings haven’t been announced.
As you said– mist travel is booked 5 months out. The 50th anniversary is now less than 5 months away.
And I agree with you that the labor shortage is the most likely cause right now. But can’t they anticipate fixing that by October??
And assuming they can anticipate having enough staff to open more hotels by October, why wouldn’t they announce a date and make them bookable now??
Disney is potentially hurting their revenue. People who might be looking to book late 2021 now will find no availability, and therefore make other plans.
Whole thing makes no sense. (Including, during this busy time, taking 200 rooms out of commission at GF to convert to DVC).
A few possibilities: Disney is not confident in their ability to reopen the Port Orleans and All Star Resorts, is overly confident in their ability to book them on shorter notice, or is being cautious in reopening bookings before being certain the resorts are ready to go. My guess is it’s a combination of all three.
As for Grand Floridian, I think that’s actually a solid move that I wouldn’t expect given Disney’s cautiousness. Even as overall bookings have shot up, that has not been the case at Grand Floridian (at least, last I heard). Taking those rooms out of commission and converting them to DVC is a good long-term move. Of course, another solution would be lowering rack rates at Grand Floridian to something that reflects the hotel’s quality, but LOL to that fantasy.
Do you think having limited park capacity has played into the limited hotel availability?
Yes, this is actually another huge thing that I meant to include. I’ve updated the post and added this. Thanks for the reminder!
If all the hotels surrounding WDW are packed won’t that have an impact on how crowded the parks are? Some of those hotels are massive.
Probably, but not necessarily.
Most of Walt Disney World’s attendance comes from off-site. So it’s theoretically possible that bookings are strong at on-site hotels because of diehard fans wanting to experience the 50th Anniversary and stay at their favorite hotel, while off-site bookings from non-fans are weaker. I’m not saying this is the case, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Additionally, if resort-wide occupancy is actually only ~50% of ALL rooms (not just all available ones) for October through December, that would still be significantly lower than normal. In other words, there are early signals that this will likely be a busy fall and holiday season, but it’s not a sure thing yet.