Crowd Predictions for Disney After Hours Boo Bash Halloween Event
Disney After Hours Boo Bash is the new Halloween “party” coming to Magic Kingdom in Fall 2021. This post features our crowd predictions, best & worst dates and days of the week to attend, and why you should consider NOT buying tickets right away, even if you’re totally on board with Boo Bash.
Before we get going, I want to take one more crack at “defending” Disney After Hours Boo Bash. I’m not really sure why, maybe I’m just glutton for punishment? To be crystal clear, I’m not claiming the event is fairly priced, let alone a great value or a must-buy. To the contrary, I think most Walt Disney World fans should not purchase Boo Bash tickets.
What I’m defending is the underlying decision by Walt Disney World to hold Boo Bash in place of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party (MNSSHP), the underlying motivations, and the misconception that this is a cash grab relative to the alternative. While I don’t have exact numbers, I am confident MNSSHP is more lucrative for Disney than the After Hours events…
In the past, Walt Disney World has capped capacity at a significantly lower level for the After Hours events than for the Halloween and Christmas parties. We’re talking less than half. On top of that, far fewer After Hours events typically sell out each season than do the two holiday parties.
There’s also the reality that there are usually far more MNSSHP nights. In an average recent year, there have been around 33-36 Halloween Parties. After Hours usually has far fewer dates per “season,” which is reflective of lower demand. To that point, Disney After Hours Boo Bash has 23 nights this fall.
Some quick back-of-the-envelope math should thus make pretty clear that Disney After Hours Boo Bash will generate far less revenue for Walt Disney World than would offering Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party this fall. Even assuming higher costs for the latter (due to labor for more entertainment), After Hours is still significantly less profitable. It’s not even close.
It should go without saying, but cost to the consumer is not the only relevant factor in revenue and profits. If it were, Club 33 memberships and VIP tours would be more lucrative than single day tickets for Walt Disney World. In reality, the latter is significant and the former are a drop in the bucket.
If all of this is true, why is Walt Disney World holding Boo Bash this year instead of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party? The assumption, as with all things before it that were modified, is “to accommodate current health and safety measures” and that anything that “draws big crowds will be on hiatus this year.”
That’s not a reasonable assumption. Look around at everything that has changed or been relaxed in the last month and extrapolate what Halloween entertainment will be possible by mid-August based upon that. The answer should be pretty much everything.
The real, primary issue is the World’s Most Magical Celebration, which is a point we made back when Boo Bash was announced. To reiterate, Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary Celebration kicks off on October 1, 2021. Much of that will be centered around Magic Kingdom.
Even if this were a totally normal year, running an After Hours event in October would make more sense than Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. On a related note and for that very same reason, Disney After Hours Boo Bash is not running at all from September 24 to October 4, 2021. Normal park hours will need to be much longer due to attendance forecasts during the kick-off week of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary, so it’s not feasible to have any hard ticket event those nights.
Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party requires closing Magic Kingdom at 6 pm either 3 or 4 nights per week. Even in a normal year, this creates a logistical nightmare. That early closing is enough to push crowds away from Magic Kingdom on those dates–and to Magic Kingdom on non-party nights. Suffice to say, that event artificially manipulates attendance patterns to an extreme and almost unmanageable degree.
In fact, our October Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World explains why you should do your daytime Magic Kingdom visit on a party night even though you’ll have significantly fewer hours in the park. It’s because the crowds are super low on party days but crushing on non-party nights. (Crowds have also been crushing on MNSSHP nights–see “Is Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party Too Crowded?“)
In part, this roller coaster crowd dynamic is because of the huge difference in day guest park hours on MNSSHP nights v. non-party nights. It’s also because Happily Ever After was not shown on party nights.
With that all in mind, let’s envision October 2021, a month we already know is going to be very busy because of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary and current hotel bookings. Add a fireworks show and other new nighttime entertainment to the mix, for potentially the first time at Magic Kingdom in over a year and a half. Now put a paywall around those evening offerings for half of the week. What do you think would happen with crowds on non-party nights? How do you think that would be perceived by guests? How would you perceive it?!
There’s plenty to dislike about Disney After Hours Boo Bash. It’s an inadequate (indirect) replacement for Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. There are ways it sets a potentially concerning precedent. I get all of that. Complaining about the event is certainly your prerogative; I’d simply advise gaming out the alternative and broader implications before making snap judgments.
Start by looking at this from the perspective of a non-attendee, which you almost certainly would be some other day during your trip. On a Boo Bash night, Magic Kingdom will have fireworks and nighttime entertainment for day guests, the park will close at 9 pm, and it won’t screw with crowd distribution over the course of the entire week. On a MNSSHP night, there would be no fireworks or nighttime entertainment for day guests, the park would close at 6 pm, and crowds would be miserable on non-party nights.
One of those scenarios is objectively better for Walt Disney World guests who choose not to pay upcharge prices.
To “prove” that I’m not just shilling for Walt Disney World here, I’ll make another recommendation: do not buy Disney After Hours Boo Bash tickets in advance.
It’s possible I’ve missed it or this will change, but nowhere in the event details do I see an advance purchase discount. This is critical, as it means there’s no “penalty” for purchasing your tickets on the day of the event. (Even if there were, you could always buy After Hours tickets the night beforehand and accomplish substantially the same thing.)
While the overwhelming majority of Walt Disney World fans are disappointed or upset about Disney After Hours Boo Bash, some of you are excited about it and eager to buy tickets ASAP. We’d caution against that unless you absolutely know you want to attend, and don’t care about how crowded it is.
Keep in mind that After Hours is fundamentally a low crowd event–the entertainment is the icing, not the cake. The promise of low crowds is the reason to attend, so if it does not offer that–or you don’t find yourself needing that, it’s arguably a pointless purchase.
There are two elements to this. Let’s start with “not needing it.”
Disney After Hours Boo Bash is occurring over the course of two months—August and September—that typically have low crowds even during normal years. This year, we’re forecasting a greater-than-normal lull from mid-August through the third week of September as fans postpone trips in the lead-up to Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary (see our updated Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World in 2021-2022).
If that ends up being accurate, you’ll encounter low crowds during your days in Magic Kingdom while visiting from mid-August through mid to late September. You thus won’t need to pay extra for an event that promises more or less the same thing.
Our forecast could very well be wrong. As we’ve pointed out repeatedly, crowd calendars are unreliable right now as we’re going through an unprecedented time. If our crowd forecast woefully underestimates early fall crowds, simply buy Disney After Hours Boo Bash tickets during your visit–no harm, no foul.
The reason we’d recommend waiting until closer to your travel dates is to assess ticket sales and event attendance levels. Yet again, the selling point of the After Hours events is low crowds. If Boo Bash is not delivering that, it’s definitely not worth the money.
To refresh our recollections, we combed through past blog post comments about prior After Hours events to see reader reactions to the event. Most reviews were glowing. However, there were quite a few–not an insignificant number–of complaints about some nights being oversold and waits being longer than advertised or anticipated.
While some guests are eager to purchase tickets for Disney After Hours Boo Bash before it sells out, we’d be highly apprehensive about attending the event on any night that sells out. Instead of having FOMO about dates selling out, it should bring a sense of relief–who wants to attend a low crowds event on a night with higher crowds?
Of course, it’s entirely possible that Walt Disney World will lower the attendance cap for Disney After Hours Boo Bash, all nights will sell out quickly as a result, the experience will be blissful, and those who follow our words of warning here will be cursing at following our bad advice. (Full disclosure: we plan on purchasing tickets for opening night as soon as they go on sale–but we also write a blog that covers Walt Disney World.)
A lot of things are possible right now, and Walt Disney World continues to surprise us. However, what’s theoretically possible and what’s likely are two very different things. It’s also possible Journey into Imagination will be restored to its former glory and SpectroMagic will rise from the ashes. Neither things are likely.
If past precedent is any indication, attendance caps for hard ticket events only increase and never decrease. Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party have gotten progressively busier over the years (save for the off-season or anomalies like hurricane-induced cancellations). It would also appear that After Hours trended towards higher ticket sales before the schedule was cut short early last year.
Ultimately, this is why we’re mostly indifferent to somewhat optimistic about After Hours replacing a hard ticket party on a one-off basis (realistically, probably two-off). If you do plan on ignoring our advice and want to buy tickets right away, your best bet from a low crowds perspective is attending on a Tuesday night. From a value-added perspective, going in October (when daytime crowds will almost certainly be higher) instead of August or September is also savvy.
Finally, don’t misconstrue this as us bashing Boo Bash. It has the potential to be a phenomenal event for those willing and able to splurge, wanting to buy their way out of crowds, and not expecting Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party (again, they’re nothing alike). That’ll be especially true if October ends up being bonkers during the day and most other guests balk at the high pricing for the event. In that scenario and for that type of guest, Disney After Hours Boo Bash might be a breath of fresh air that is well worth the money.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What are your thoughts about all of this? Does the added explanation here make you less apprehensive or angry about Disney After Hours Boo Bash running instead of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party this year? Pleased that, at minimum, you’ll get longer park hours on non-event nights? Will your family be buying or sitting this Halloween event out? Do you agree or disagree with our perspective on this? Are you disappointed that Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party won’t be happening, or is Boo Bash a superior (or at least sufficient) alternative for you? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
“The only thing I know periodt”!!!!!.. I never been to any Disney adventure since watching”THE MICKEY MOUSE CLUB”as a mouskettier .. I will most definitely celebrate my 53rd.birthday there in DEC. y’all better not be playing with this girl when it comes to ANYTHING DISNEY… I would love waking up a princess for my birthday DISNEY (can my sister wake up as one too??)… I’m celebrating 53 & U Disney 50… dreaming of DISNEY daily
Thinking staff shortages are another reason why they went with MNSSHP-lite. Even though the college program is reopening staff shortages are still a concern around the country. Also I wouldn’t consider limited capacity a guarantee as wasn’t that part of the draw of the original MNSSHP and Christmas parties? We are a Northeastern family who attended the second MNSSHP in August 2019 (before school started) which was on a Tuesday and supposed to be one of the quieter days – WRONG! I think people just like to celebrate Halloween and will be happy to do so in whatever fashion Disney offers. Happy Haunting everyone!
Staffing shortages and/or too short of a turnaround time to rehire and train parade performers also undoubtedly played a big role.
Walt Disney World stopped touting “low crowds” for MNSSHP and MVMCP several years ago. While the same could happen down the road for After Hours, I don’t think they’d advertise it as such this year, and then raise the limit significantly this year. It’d be a gradual thing.
We will be in the park for the first day of the event and don’t have plans to attend after hours since we have young children. I am curious if the event will affect day time attendance? Obviously not to the degree of MNSSHP, since park hours aren’t reduced. Perhaps wishful thinking?
I would not expect it to have any impact on daytime attendance unless park hours end up being longer for non-party nights. It’s entirely conceivable that MK closes at 9 pm on party nights but 11 pm on other nights due to attendance/demand.
Still, won’t be nearly as big of an impact as a 6 pm closure. A lot of families will be perfectly fine with the park closing at 9 pm since their kids can’t stay up later, anyway.
We’re really debating about going. We’ll be there Sept. 15-20, so would go on that Friday. We’ll be staying at Universal since we got annual passes this year (1st Universal trip in less than a week!). Flights are booked, will book hotel soon and have no really plans other than leisurely visiting the parks, and possibly one disney day. Now since they released this event, we’re thinking about doing that instead of a Disney park day. Wild card is the 2 year old, I know the 8 year old will make it. I’m a little afraid of waiting since people really seem to be wanting to go on vacation, except for aoa suites, all other hotels are booked those days we’re there. I checked dates more so out of curiosity.
That one is a tough call–obviously you know your family best.
I’d be inclined to lean towards doing a regular full day at Magic Kingdom unless glowing reviews emerge from the first few weeks of After Hours and event tickets are still available for your dates.
I would disagree on purchasing tickets right away in certain circumstances. In our case since we live in the area we have identified dates we are going to go. There is no reason to wait as it is the same price as you pointed out. I would rather plan out and secure the nights we want to attend. I wouldn’t call it FOMO but more of a we know when we are going and want to secure it which there is no penalty in doing that.
To each their own, but I would think living locally would present the ideal scenario for waiting to buy tickets–you have maximum flexibility and can see what entertainment and the crowds levels are like.
Given that the main reason to purchase tickets to the After Hours event is low crowds, why not choose dates if/when it’s clear crowds will be low?
I think your advice to wait is a good idea. We have a trip tentatively scheduled for late August into early September and we have MK reserved for a Boo Bash day. We did enjoy the Early Morning Magic Fantasyland events because it limited attendance so if Boo Bash is similar in that regard, we may consider doing it. But, if it’s like MNSSHP, then will definitely not attend as we tried that once and did not enjoy it at all – way too crowded and found ride lines were really bad.
There’s no way it’ll be even as remotely bad as the worst MNSSHP dates in terms of crowds (worth noting that not all MNSSHP in 2019 were crowded), but it might not be as good as the best After Hours dates. It’ll likely be somewhere in between, closer to the latter end of the spectrum.
We’re going 10/2-10/9 only bc it my daughter’s fall break but not bc of the 50th anniv. I try to go at slower times but can’t make that work anymore w my daughter’s schedule. We went to the last MNSSHP and had a blast. We’re all about the rides and had low wait times while most others were doing the parades. It was the highlight of r trip. So, I’m just excited Disney is even having something for Halloween. It is super expensive but since it’s just 3 of us, I think we can budget it in and cut back on other things. Staying at Pop so will buy boo bash as soon as the 8th gets here. Hoping 10/5 won’t sell out buy it prob will. Hoping they keep it with low crowds. Thx Tom for your blog and for the well thought out explanation on this topic!! I love your blog!!
I’m guessing 10/5 will sell out simply because it’s the first event night in over a week at that point. However, it sounds like it’s still a good fit for you, and given that you’re visiting during a time that’ll likely have high crowds during daytime hours, it probably makes sense to just buy whenever tickets go on sale.
Have a great trip! 🙂
Hey we’re gonna be there on opening night too! We are four adults who love the MK at night and probably won’t get to go together again for a long time so we’ve decided it’s worth the splurge. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Please excuse me if I see y’all and kinda holler at you because I love and appreciate your blog SO MUCH. Your advice, sense of humor, and photography are all awesome! Thanks for all your hard work and I can’t wait until you’re helping me plan my first Tokyo trip
Haha, feel free to “kinda holler.” Just be advised, I’m not nearly as funny in person. (Which is not to say that I’m funny in writing–just less so in real life!)
Interesting perspective. I was assuming that Boo Bash instead of MNSSHP would also mean a similar after hours event for Christmas instead of MVMCP. Do you think this is the case, or do you think they might go ahead with the Christmas party?
I think there’s a good chance (which is why I called this a “two-off” towards the end) if only because crowd levels are likely to spike in October and not let up through the holiday season.
On the other hand, Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party is really lucrative for Disney, so perhaps they’ll try to find a way to make it work in Magic Kingdom while bringing back After Hours events to the other parks for the holiday season? It wouldn’t even surprise me if there’s a different hard ticket event every single night of November and December in Magic Kingdom, DHS, or Animal Kingdom.
If party starts at 9pm what are your predictions for closing time of park on party days? Party people can get in at 7 so do you thing park will close at 7. Going in sept and trying to see if it’s best to go on party days or not. Sept 7 and 10.
“If party starts at 9pm what are your predictions for closing time of park on party days?”
9 pm.
My family has a vacation planned at Disney World starting Halloween night. What are you thoughts on the value of this event on October 31st?
@Christy: we took our girls when they were 7 & 6, and have gone to the Halloween party several times since. Trick-or-treating at Disney is magical, and even the adults can do it!! My mom loooved it! Plus, I love the themed decorations, specialty snacks that are only available during the party, parades/calvacades (seeing the headless horseman!) and Halloween music. Even the fireworks were different (if they have them this year.) The last time we went (2019) it was very crowded, but maybe at these prices, crowds will be much lower. The rides are great, but if you go, make sure you take time to enjoy the party atmosphere. That’s what it’s truly all about. Definitely find time for the Haunted Mansion though! There is a special effects photo op while you’re waiting in line, and it just seems extra spooky to do this ride during the Halloween party. A word of advice…just relax at your resort pool that day, take naps so you’re well rested, and eat before you go so you don’t waste any party time. You’ll also be able to get into the park two hours before the party starts, so take advantage of the extra park time. Hope that helps!
I’ve got a two-week trip planned, arriving 9/18 and leaving 10/4– I normally plan one-week visits, but this was my attempt to both enjoy some of September’s expected lower crowds and be there on the 50th anniversary. 9/21 and 9/24 are the only Boo Bash dates shown during my two weeks; I know I’m going to want to do it once regardless of pros and cons, just to have done it– so I figure I’ll go ahead and get a ticket for the 21st since that’s the cheaper price.
Thanks for your response Tom! Good to hear that an expert like you agrees with our game plan. Fingers crossed we are able to score those Boo Bash tickets for the only night we can do it.
Will be there October 26-30 and we don’t have tickets for our arrival day, a Tuesday. Since were prioritizing HS and food & wine (and staying in lake crescent) this is the perfect chance to get in all the MK rides and not have to stress. Will allow for a leisurely Disney springs dinner instead of having to fit in another park with long lines. Definitely buying right away and seems like we fit into a category you recommend it for.
“Definitely buying right away and seems like we fit into a category you recommend it for.”
Yep!
We will be there for the 50th. Arriving on Sept 29th and departing on Oct 6th. The only date during our trip for Boo Bash is Tuesday the 5th. We already have park reservations for MK on the 1st and I am almost certain it will be overcrowded with long wait times for all popular rides if fast pass doesn’t return. My family and I are sort of justifying getting tickets to Boo Bash so we can make sure we get to ride what we miss out on the 1st. I also feel like since there is a bit of a gap during the week the 50th is starting, that Tuesday the 5th might sell out for Boo Bash. We never park hop, and usually allot one day per park. Staying from rope drop to kiss goodnight each day. This trip we have planned is shorter than we usually do and we are skipping the water parks altogether so we can add an extra day at EP and HS (especially to get a second chance to ride ROR in the event we arent able to get it on our first HS day). We will be buying Boo Bash tickets as soon as they go on sale to resort guests so I can have peace of mind that we will be able to st least get a second half day st MK.
Your very specific circumstances perfectly describe the “ideal case scenario” for buying Boo Bash tickets in advance. We’d probably do the same if we didn’t live locally and those were our travel dates. Good call!
Hi Tom we will be there in mid August. Crowds & pricing aside, do you think it is worth it during a six year olds first Disney trip? When it first was announced I was excited for my kids to be able to experience “Disney at Halloween” while we were there in August. I think they would love it! Then I read the blogs & saw all the negative comments.
Can they stay up for the duration of the event? That’s the threshold question.
Personally, I loved Villains After Hours–this should be fairly similar to that. Start by reading our review of that if you haven’t: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/villains-after-hours-magic-kingdom-review/
As for whether the entertainment component of this event will be “worth it,” that’s difficult to say at this point. We’ll have a review after the first night!
I think you are correct, and they probably would have not had the normal Halloween party hard ticket event this fall even without the pandemic. We’ve attended three times during fall/winter while they were hosting either the Halloween or Christmas party. I’m not claiming to be a Disney crowd patterns expert, but the impact the events had on crowd patterns was insane and pretty easy to observe.
I generally throw a lot of shade at seasonal events starting earlier and earlier, but setting that aside I thought the way Disney started the Halloween party in August was super lame just because it forced people into choosing from one of a couple/several nights if they wanted to see fireworks in MK.
Counterpoint: guests who actually visit in August seem to prefer having the option to attend MNSSHP v. nothing for Halloween at all. Moreover, there are fewer parties per week in late August, and it’s easier to schedule around. Finally, seeing the special fireworks from TTC is awesome.
With that said, I agree with the perception that the “Halloween party in August was super lame” but I think that’s largely an outsider’s and/or local’s perspective, and not shared by actual tourists visiting during those dates.
Thanks for the insight, Tom.
I actually added a stay to my trip in August so I could buy Boo Bash Tickets. Am I pleased about the price as compared to previous after hours events? Nope. Will I buy them? Yes.
What I find interesting is the matter in which Disney is releasing information about the event. I know many scoured the website for updates to be released on June 1st.
Any insight on when the tickets will drop on the 8th for resort stays? Midnight? 6am?
I, like many others, have done my best to be patient with Disney as they navigate the changes with many hours on hold or the like.
Regardless, I’m excited for the offerings that they will continue to introduce.
I think this is the type of thing that will drop at a random time in the morning, possibly 6 am but not definitely–could be 4:17 am or 8:32 am. Pretty unlikely sales go live at midnight.
If you compare this to the price for an regular after hours event it’s very close in price. Like Animal Kingdom after hours.
Yeah, I personally don’t think the prices for this event are that surprising. I think they’re expensive, but that’s the nature of the After Hours beast.