Disney Parks in New Countries “Inevitable”
During Disney’s Q2 earnings call, CEO Bob Iger gave a surprisingly candid response when asked about new Disney Parks in different countries, saying “there’s an inevitability to us building parks in other countries, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to build something anytime very soon.”
Iger also remarked that Disney believes there’s “opportunity to expand in China, and there may also be opportunities in other parts of the world.” He also indicated that Disney regularly engages in conversations with representatives from different markets who would love to put Disneyland in their market.
Disney reported that U.S. theme park attendance rose 5% in the quarter, with most of the growth coming from Walt Disney World (albeit much attributable to the timing of Easter). Parks & Resorts revenue increased 13% to $4.9 billion, while operating income for the division grew 27% to $954 million. Iger attributed the growth to price increases and increased attendance.
Given attendance trends, the chatter about further development should come as no surprise. It seems like nearly every quarter, we hear reports of attendance and other growth. Particularly since 2011, the U.S. Disney Parks have seen pretty consistent annual attendance growth.
Where Disney will build its next park is a question that comes up with surprising regularity. In part, that’s probably because it’s fun to daydream, and many Disney fans want to imagine a theme park in their backyard. If you listen to Texans, it’s practically a criminal offense that Disney has yet to build in the center of the universe Texas. (No offense to the Texas-centrics reading this–perhaps Disney is just worried that such a concentration of awesomeness would be lethal to us non-Texans?)
The other reason for this ongoing conversation is because it seems like every other week there’s another article that makes the rounds about bogus plans for a new Disney park about to be built in [insert random country here]. No, for real this time. While it’s easy to dismiss those stories as dumb clickbait, my suspicion is that many of these articles are fueled by politicians with various ulterior motives. I won’t digress into that, though.
Whenever friends have sent these to me, my response has been the same: I doubt I’ll see another castle park open in my lifetime. While this new quote by Bob Iger might cast doubt on the likelihood of my ‘prediction’, I think there’s still only a 50/50 chance I’ll see the opening of another castle park. Not because I think ‘Rio DisneySky’ is next or because I plan on dying in an epic bear-wrasslin’ battle in 4 years, but because I just don’t see any options for resorts in new locations in the foreseeable future.
If I were to prognosticate the future development of Disney Parks around the globe, I think the safest predictions are new gates in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Anaheim, and Paris (in that order). Even then, those are likely not in the cards as near or mid-term developments, except perhaps second gates in China and Hong Kong.
In the more immediate future, expanding Walt Disney World, Disneyland, and Hong Kong Disneyland, plus fixing Disneyland Paris are all planned. These projects have been announced, in some cases construction has begun, and they will consume a significant amount of Parks & Resort’s capex for the foreseeable future.
Timelines for the announced projects listed above already stretch into the next decade. It’s difficult to see Parks & Resorts capex being diverted to developing new sites with any of those safer bets still on the table. Once those expansion projects plus yet-unannounced second or third gates are completed, we’re already looking at 2030, at the earliest.
Setting that aside, and assuming arguendo that Disney has a more immediate desire to build in a new locale, there are basic prerequisites. First, the location needs to have a high concentration of middle class residents within close proximity; spitballing, I’d say there need to be over 50 million income-qualified potential guests within 4 hours.
Second, the location needs to be somewhere that would not cannibalize a significant amount of business from Disney’s existing parks. This is the one that eliminates literally any other location in the United States. (Sorry, Texas.) It also eliminates anywhere in Europe.
Third, the location needs to be somewhere that has demonstrated long-term political stability. A place that has economic or political volatility would not be a good suitor. This eliminates Brazil (and a number of other locations, most of which were probably already eliminated, anyway).
Finally, the choice needs to be relatively uncontroversial for a family-friendly, all-American brand like Disney. I think this might rule out places like United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar. These countries otherwise have governments with the resources to lure Disney (or license the name) if they so desired. China seems about as bold as Disney would get in that regard.
Speaking of which, assuming what I’ve listed are Disney’s actual parameters, that basically just leaves expansion at new sites in Asia. Beijing is pretty far from Shanghai, and also has a sufficient population buffer, but that city is getting a Universal theme park (which is already rumored to have had a rocky development).
Guangzhou is also a huge city and a safe distance from Shanghai, but it might be too close to Hong Kong. In actuality, there are probably a few other potential candidates in China, but it seems likely that Disney would take a wait and see approach in the near to mid-term with further development in China.
India is another option, but I think that’s another one where a wait and see approach might be appropriate to see how middle class income continues to develop. Still, development here within the next 30 years is not outside the realm of possibilities.
Seoul is another interesting option, and there are a number of thriving industries that could make this location sustainable. However, let’s not forget the instability a mere 50 miles from the city. There’s always the possibility the North Korea ‘situation’ does get resolved in the near future, but to the extent that Disney is comfortable building there? That seems highly unlikely anytime in the mid-term future.
I think that’s about it. Realistically, I think it would also take the local government offering Disney a sweetheart deal or taking a stake in the business (or both), which complicates this calculus even further. As with the Olympics, being home to a Disney theme park is a legitimizing factor, and I could see other emerging world cities that want to step out onto the world stage also vying for a new Disney park. The question, ultimately, is whether Disney would be willing to take the gamble.
Your Thoughts
Where do you think Disney will build its next park? Do you think we’ll see a new castle park in our lifetimes? Where is your dream location for a Disney theme park–either close to home or your favorite travel destination? Any other speculation, commentary, or questions? Hearing from you is half the fun, so please share your take below!
Interesting post. I think we will see another resort but not for a while. As you say i think we’ll see expansion at both Chinese resorts first, Hong Kong needs a downtown area for a start and a second park there if built right would help make the resort a destination and shake off its half day reputation. Similarly shanghai needs extra capacity.
I suspect south east asia could host a new disney resort without canabilising the existing resorts – Thailand or possibly Singapore would be a good choice, perhaps rather than a castle park disney could build a different park like Disneysea to make the resort different to the others or maybe they could use a place like this to test the regional entertainment complex theyve toyed with over the years.
I wouldnt count india out either 25 years ago no one would have predicted two disney resorts in china, especially one on the mainland. Ive jsu returned fron tokyo and there were a lot of Indian tourists in disney so the demand is there
For years there’s been a rumor here in Missouri that Disney was looking to buy or bought up land in Branson/Springfield to compete with Silver Dollar City, who brings in about 2 million people each year and a healthy international population. My husband and I always joke that it could be a park to have all of the attractions that got replaced in WDW or DL.
I love that idea!
I wish Disney would think of Costa Rica …. yes we are small country, but with a long standing democracy, very stable, with a strong middle class (although, not as big as the “requirement”), hard working people, friendly to tourists, and I will dare to say … in love with everything Disney … and of course with nice weather all year around….
No thanks. The kinds of guests Disney would attract are not exactly the surfers and yogis who respect the ecological mission of Costa Rica. The quantities of literal garbage produced would be unbelievable. I love Disney but I would rather do the hike to San Jose to fly to Orlando rather than have it in our backyard.
I really wish they would build in India, so can have my Disney fix often instead of waiting for a once in a five year trip. Bangalore, Mumbai, Hyderabad, the NCR – we’ve got plenty of cities both with the population and the upper middle class with increasing income levels.
I think next Disney resorts should be in South East Asia … very dense population (Indonesia alone is 270 million people who are actually the main market for Universal studio Singapore & Legoland Malaysia).
Disney will want a Resort that can open 365 days in a year (good weather needed).
Bangkok Thailand should be nice … very famous for their hospitality.
They should add a Park in Africa and South America, as well as a Hawaiian DisneySea.
Yet a Russian Disneyland is also a good idea.
Each should even have their attractions in their own unique way.
How about Space Mountain being 60 or 100 or 128 mph inside a 300’ diameter building or how about a version that actually shoots guests off a hole in the top of the building literally into space to a distance of 13.7 billion light years while accelerating up to a billion light years per second throughout the duration of the trip to the edge of the known universe before returning back to Earth in 30 seconds (with rider protection and warning cards of course).
Also, a version of Seven Dwarfs Mine Train that’s twice as long and actually has a huge 80’ drop at a steep angle inside the dark mine as a part of the Evil Queen scene.
How about another 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, or a Pocahontas themed walkthrough attraction and meet and greet.
Perfect ideas for the new Disney Parks.
Speaking of Space Mountain, Shanghai Disneyland needs one, and it could be the Edge of the Universe version, as that would make even Tron seem like it’s a Small World.
Hahahaha, as a Texan, I had to laugh. It only takes 2 hours to fly to Orlando, so it’s never occurred to me that we should have a park here. I think that would over-saturate the U.S. market. I think Argentina might make sense for a South American park. Buenos Ares has a lot of direct flights and South America has no real Disney presence yet. I also thought the people mentioning Singapore are probably onto something. I think Singapore or Dubai might both make sense, depending on what kind of contracts could be worked out.
Australia seems like a cool idea, but I doubt the population is high enough and it might just take too long for most people to get there, even with direct flights.
I am also a Texan and I think a park here is silly. People complain about the summer heat in Orlando. The heat here in Houston makes Orlando seem relatively cool when we visit in June. I still remember the first time I went to Disney World after having lived in Houston for awhile. Everyone in Disney was complaining about the heat (mid to high 80s in Early June). My family couldn’t really understand what the complaints were as we were comfortable having come from mid to high 90s. August and September in Texas are not fun months to be outside. February and March on the other hand are usually rather nice.
“Australia seems like a cool idea, but I doubt the population is high enough and it might just take too long for most people to get there, even with direct flights.”
Australia has a population of 24 million while Singapore has a population of 5 million.
Hong Kong has a population of 7 million while getting a Disneyland park that is largely unprofitable.
Australia gets 7.4 million tourists according to the latest statistics. There’s plenty of land to expand. Singapore has no land to expand. Universal built a park in Singapore and must remove attractions to build Harry Potter Land.
The best way to look at this is future potential. Australia must certainly start small, but they can ramp up if needed if their attendance achieve it’s objectives. They also get lots of tourists from China, New Zealand, UK, US, Singapore, and India.
We get heaps of tourists…then they all move here (Australia is just that good )
I was thinking Australia too! I really want to visit from all the wonderful things I hear and having Disney there would be just one more reason to go!
Disney had discussions with Sydney council around 10 years ago to open “‘Disney Wharf at Sydney Harbour” in White Bay. It was codenamed ”Project Lester”. Sadly the idea died due to the amount Disney were requiring the council to spend on infrastructure (amongst other reasons).
Australia’s labour laws make it very difficult to turn a profit with a Disneyland Park. They looked at the Gold Coast for. Disneyland resort a few years ago but decided to build Hong Kong instead as Australia’s numbers were 5million guests per year where Hong Kong’s projection was 7 million. In the end Hong Kong only saw 5 million guests.
I live in Houston. Texas would be a great place for a park becuase of the enormous population and the proximity to the Mexican border. Not to mention the hub of international activity that takes places here. Then there is the ease of flights in and out of Houston. But Tom is right, it would cannibalize Orlando quite a bit and as you mentioned, it’s only a 2 hour flight to Orlando which makes it easier to fly there than to drive most places in Texas. (Dallas is a 4+ hour drive for me).
I just can’t see anywhere that seems plausible to me. Frankly, what Disney needs to start quietly buying up residential and business locations in Anaheim so it can control local politics better. Then it can expand the way it needs to.
If Disney wanted to do a Texas location they could do an enormous water park. That would allow expansion without much canibalization.
Australia is a great place to have a Disney Park. Australia attracts millions of tourists every year from Asia, NZ, all over the world really. We travel 14 hours to LA in droves to see Disneyland there. I think Disney Down Under is a great idea.
While I’m all for tourism and the boost in economy it helps for the United States, I would love to see Disney theme parks in more states or other countries. For one, I love Disney and love to travel. Two (this is a bit selfish), perhaps more Disney theme parks would mean lesser crowds/lines at the stateside theme parks.
Really interesting article/analysis. I think Singapore would have to be in the mix of potential future park locations, based on its prominence as a resort destination, status as a business and travel hub, and drive toward innovation in architecture, urban planning, and sustainability. Universal and Legoland have already staked out ground in SIngapore so I’m not sure Disney would want to be seen as following the crowd — but with or without Disney, Singapore is already becoming the “Orlando of Southeast Asia” in some respects, yet on a larger scale. And I’d guess that probably a billion people (give or take) live within a 4-5 hour flight.
While overall I agree that building new “Castle Parks” is unlikely (in Singapore or elsewhere) I think Disney will probably follow the Aulani model and develop “destination resorts” in targeted locations. I also think they would be wise to consider revisiting and improving upon the DisneyQuest concept in tourist-oriented cold-weather cities. With the cash being raked in by “indoor waterpark resorts” like Great Wolf Lodge and Kalahari, I think Disney could make a big splash (sorry, had to do it) in that segment as well.
Agreed! Singapore makes a lot of sense. Great place to visit! They also have some pretty cool tourist attractions already, including a fun Universal studios park.
Spain makes less sense to me. I don’t know if the necessary Disney cast member spirit can be found there? We visited the Warner Brothers park outside of Madrid some years ago. Worst theme park ever when it comes to logistics, and the people working there were SO rude! We almost lost the bus back to Madrid because the girl behind the counter in the gift shop was so slow. When I explained that I was in a hurry to catch the bus, she just laughed – and slowed down even more!
Thanks for the insight on Singapore. I knew they had a Universal and Legoland presence, but that’s about it. We’ve been saying for about the last 4 years that we’ll do a stop there “soon” but it’s yet to happen. I really need to get there!
I don’t think Aulani has been the success Disney was expecting when they built it. It didn’t help that there were initially problems with the declarations, but even setting that aside, I don’t think the DVC side sold as well/quickly as they would’ve liked. Given Disney’s mixed (at best) results in concepts like that, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve seen the end of destination resorts from Disney.
Interesting point about Aulani — from afar (haven’t ever really looked into its profitability), I’ve gotten the sense that it would be successful but sounds like the numbers don’t bear that out. Personally my most enjoyable Hawaii experiences have involved the local/authentic aspects of the islands — it’s not a destination where I’d ever want to spend all or most my time at a resort. I suppose this may be true for others as well, who don’t want to pay a premium at Aulani when Disney could never do Hawaii as well as Hawaii itself does Hawaii.
As for Singapore, I’m not a resident but it may be the closest thing in the world today to an actual living, breathing “community of tomorrow” that’s not an “experimental prototype”. It’s no utopia but the government and business leaders have been relentlessly pursuing forward-thinking development strategies across the economic, environmental, social, and cultural spectrum. National Geographic has featured the city-state prominently, including this interesting article with some great pics: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/urban-expeditions/green-buildings/green-urban-landscape-cities-Singapore/
You don’t mention Tokyo in your list of predictions. Is the third gate there (theoretically DisneySky) now confirmed? I thought it was just somewhat credibly rumored, but I could be out of the loop?
It’s not a credible rumor.
Well, here’s a Texan who does not think it’s a crime there’s no Disneyland Texas. I do think the city of Arlington (right in between Dallas and Fort Worth) has more arguments in its favor than might be supposed, but I hope Disney does NOT agree, because it would really take too much specialness out of going to WDW every two years if there was a castle park I could easily drop in on every two days.
I think in Canada, Because here is why we need a Disneyland in Canada: We don’t have a Disneyland in Canada but only Disney Stores in Canada, so i what’s thinking where a Disneyland could be in if only where could it be at. Maybe in Ontario or in Quebec or maybe in British Columbia that will be great.
Also i saw April Fool Jokes about Disneyland coming to Canada and i think that is not funny at all and i’m sad & crying for tears about that. So i putting my foot down and tell Disney (Please Disney please make a Disneyland in Canada so real this time).
I completely agree!!! Especially with our dollar, it’s so expensive and far for Canadians to travel. BC would be best, not only because I’m from BC….but because we have nothing in this part of Canada and Canadians would make the drive. Flights in Canada are more expensive for Canadians tho, lol.
We are going to Disney World in October, can’t wait!
BC is an awful idea – not because it’s BC, per se, but because it would take East Coasters 8 hours to fly there. Somewhere smack in the middle would be best. Realistically, Disney would only ever build in Ontario, imo.
But I don’t see a Canadian Disneyland in my future, regardless. 🙁
Just because you don’t agree, doesn’t mean it’s “awful”. I realize the majority of Canadians live there and Quebec and, of course, that’s why there’s already lots to do in the Ontario area. I shared my opinion that it would be nice to have something in the BC area because we don’t. PS this isn’t real life and my comment would in no way affect the location of an imaginary Disneyland Canada, lol. I’m guessing that all Canadians would make the flight, seeing as we are flying all the way to Orlando from Northern BC in October,
I don’t think the weather in Canada would be very conducive to a year-round theme park, and I say that as someone living on the Northern border wishing I could have a closer park to visit!
Well in Disneyland Paris & Tokyo Disneyland sometimes opens during the winter and the castle in Tokyo with the snow on it at night at beautiful i will send a picture to know what it looks like at night.
https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/kiwiprod/htmlimagebox/1490595307_2.jpg
Expand in China means a second or third park in Shanghai or Hong Kong. It doesn’t mean another location unless it’s far inside the interior, which is hardly populated. I would also rule out South Korea. It’s too close to Tokyo and Shanghai.
Don’t rule out Australia. It’s close to other safe South East Asia countries like Singapore and Indonesia.
Saudi Arabia is a bad idea especially with how the current Royal Family ruler treated the Saudi Prince that was a big investor of Disneyland Paris. Then there’s Israel that was just bombed by Syria.
To tell you the truth, Disney has no good options to expand from its current locations. Should they expand into Eastern Europe? Columbia might be the only stable South American country.
I think Australia would be great- not just saying that because I’m Australian. We have direct flights from all over the world so we have accessibility. And as mentioned we have a strong Disney fan base already. Our country has plenty of reason to travel here without a Disney park but would appeal to other travellers
(*have you and Sarah travelled to Australia? I highly recommend it)
We have not yet been to Australia, but we’d love to visit–it’s on our bucket list for sure.
With that said, the entirety of Australia has a fraction of the population of any major Asian country. The fact that Australia is also its own continent hurts, not helps, because it means it’s an international destination for anyone who is not an Australian. Sorry, I just don’t see it happening.
Apparently got close once
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/entertainment/how-the-gold-coast-almost-became-the-happiest-place-on-earth/news-story/fecafaf3c7bea8f69566a1f5c1b2997f
Fascinating read. At least some of that relayed by the potential developer concerning other parks is factually incorrect (Disney executives weren’t against Tokyo until the gov’t sweetened the deal; Disney got such a poor deal it was long considered Eisner’s biggest regret), and also omits a lot (for example, the reason HKDL happened was because Eisner couldn’t get his prize: Shanghai).
Still, the most telling part is the projected attendance of 5 million guests. Perhaps at some point in the 1990s that would’ve been sufficient to justify a regional park (and in fairness, under Eisner, Disney was willing to undertake some regional projects of this nature). Under Iger, Disney has grown significantly, and theme park targets have been far higher. A park with projected attendance under 10 million annual guests would never be built under Iger.
Maybe the next CEO will have a different perspective, and Australia will someday be back on the table?
Seeing that South America is pretty populous and the countries have relatively open borders with one another, it would be nice to see a Disney park representation there. But, I do agree that the economic support for a theme park on a Disney scale would be an issue.
I also agree about your comments on Texas – haha! I am not a native, but I have lived in TX for many years, in multiple cities and I can tell you that most die-hard Texans believe that everything should or does revolve around Texas. 🙂
Not just out of self-interest as it would suit me… but I do wonder whether Disney might give another thought to a park based in southern Europe. The reasons for not building there in the first place – esp. Spain’s political situation in the mid-late 80s – are largely gone.
At the moment, resources are being piled into Disneyland Paris, and make no mistake, I absolutely love the park. However, a small park in Spain would have good weather year-round, and attract the countless Europeans who are already vacationing in that part of the world. With the exception of DLP, the Ile De France region is simply not a place families spend extended periods on vacation.
Spain is an interesting one, and the only place in Europe I wouldn’t instantly rule out. I think that if Disney were building in Europe for the first time today, it would be the easy pick.
I think it’s worth revisiting once Walt Disney Studios is “fixed” and we get a better idea what European demographics are like at DLP.
A park in Canada would be accessible to not only us Canucks but also for the Northern states such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, etc. As you know, to get from Florida from Detroit is a 19 hr drive or an increasingly expensive plane ride. Pretty soon it will be nearly economically impossible for a northern family to travel there or to Disneyland
I think a Canuck land would be Really Cool, built in Alberta, along the Northern Rockies, would be Stupendous!!! Just think of the Gondola system you could engineer there!!!
I would love that, but I think the weather would be prohibitive. Disney in the Rockies though… it would be stunning 🙂
I was surprised that there was no mention of Australia as a potential new park location. The Southern Hemisphere would do well I think and places like Australia’s west coast/Sidney side have all the pre-requisits you listed. Stable government, a strong middle and upper class population, and a strong Disney loving fan base. Just a thought, but it’s a whole freakin’ continent with out any Disney so it feels like that should be a obvious choice to me.
I think people get hung up on the ‘whole continent’ element of Australia, but it seems to me the population is too low to sustain a Disney resort complex.
Thoughts on Australia (too few people?), Mexico (too close to USA locations?), Canada (same as Mexico?), or Russia (too close to Paris and a possible political no-no?)? What about somewhere that doesn’t necessarily have the population but is somewhere people might be otherwise inclined to travel anyway? For example, a park in the Caribbean could be a draw for people who would combine it with a beach vacation anyway, and cruise ships could visit too.
I think Russia is a very interesting location, and could be viable down the road. In the near and mid-term, I think that would be politically untenable for Disney. That could definitely change.
Mexico and Canada are both too close to the U.S., I think.
Ultimately, I think Disney would be looking only at world cities for their next new location.
I’m living in Australia at the moment and I can tell you that a lot of Aussies would love to have it but there’s definitely not the population base here. Only 25 million people spread out in a country almost the size of the US.
Igor should concentrate on turning his money maker, WDW, into THE Crown Jewel of all Disney Parks, and adding a fifth gate would go a long way for overcrowding.
Disney will expand the existing gates at Walt Disney World before building a fifth gate. I don’t see a new park in Florida anytime in the next two decades, unless it’s a boutique park.
Exactly what makes me angry about this topic, by then, I’ll be Dead !
Not that I believe this will happen, but with Universal about to massively expand their Orlando location adding multiple new resorts and likely an additional gate, do you think WDW will need to add an additional gate to stay ahead of the game? Thanks to Harry, they’re already nipping at the heels of everything but MK.
While I think WDW needs at least one more non-major attraction, rather than a half-day fifth gate, I have no idea what that should be.
They are going to need some place for the additional resort guests to go, no?, or is it there plan to pack ’em in already overcrowded parks ???