Will a Fifth Park Be Built at Disney World?
Rumors and speculation are again flying about a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. I’ll make a not-so-bold prediction: Disney won’t build a 5th theme park in Florida any time soon. Want a bolder prediction? No one reading this will see a fifth gate at Walt Disney World in their lifetime. (Updated July 13, 2022.)
To be clear, we’re talking fifth theme park gate–none of that ‘water theme park’ nonsense. (And in any case, it seems like Disney is perfectly content operating only one water park in Orlando right now, so adding a third seems highly unlikely.) This is a topic we’ve touched upon previously (last time due to major land purchases by Disney around Central Florida), but felt it was worth revisiting for a few reasons.
We’ll start with the elephant in the room: Universal’s Epic Universe, the third theme park being built in Central Florida by Comcast. On recent earnings calls, that company’s executives have praised the success of their parks in their post-reopening recovery. This is a big reason why Epic Universe is full steam ahead, and slated to open by Summer 2025. Many fans want Walt Disney World to have an “answer” to Epic Universe, and the only thing that can really compete with a new theme park is a new theme park.
That absolutely will not happen. Even if Disney wanted to build a new theme park and announced one today, there is a 0.000% chance the company could have it open by Summer 2025. Disney is still in the process of cloning a roller coaster in an empty warehouse it announced 5 years ago and has been building for over 4 years.
From what I understand, an entire theme park is considerably more elaborate than even multiple empty warehouses. (Some of the warehouses would, presumably, be filled with things.) In other words, if TRON Lightcycle Run is a reliable gauge of the company’s construction pace, Disney could open a new theme park in approximately 2077 if construction began today. Perhaps that’s a bit hyperbolic…maybe 2055. 😉
That assumes that Disney wants to build another theme park in Central Florida right now, and that is absolutely not the case. In reality, Disney won’t have any official answer to Epic Universe. They won’t acknowledge the project as a threat or Universal as a bona fide competitor. When the Wizarding World of Harry Potter opened, Disney claimed that “a rising tide lifts all boats” — that a stronger Universal was beneficial to Disney because it attracted more people to Central Florida. That’s inarguably true to some extent, but it’s also spin.
Of course, Disney’s tune could change once Epic Universe opens and Universal starts siphoning vacation time or, more importantly, hotel stays away from Walt Disney World. That could prompt the company to get more aggressive after the fact and come up with an answer, but it still won’t be an entire theme park. Now, let’s delve into the why of that.
Again, we’ll start with considerations that are undoubtedly front-of-mind for Florida management. The big one right now is staffing shortages. This seems to come up in just about every other post here these days, and there’s a reason for that: it’s the root cause of many problems and why so much has not returned to normal. It’s the driver behind park reservations and virtually anything that’s still missing from the full Walt Disney World experience right now.
The reason the parks are not at full capacity is entirely driven by staffing shortages, which reduces the total number of guests the parks can accommodate. In a nutshell, if certain entertainment and experiences are missing or the parks are unable to operate for as many hours as normal, overall park capacity decreases. Wait times are longer even though overall attendance limits are (significantly) lower because more guests are consolidated into fewer options.
There’s a certain cynicism among fans that this is intentional, so Walt Disney World can reduce its labor and operational costs. This is patently false. It is accurate that Disney wants to right-size its workforce and optimize efficiency during normal times. That is not what’s presently occurring.
Turning paying customers away during a period of sky-high consumer spending–which is what is happening right now–is a far bigger hit to revenue than the minimal cost of more employees. Just look at the lack of After Hours hard ticket parties, EPCOT festival seminars, and other upcharges–all of which are expensive add-ons for guests–that have not been happening. Disney is literally leaving millions of dollars on the table without these offerings. Does anyone really believe that’s a deliberate choice?
There’s a number of root causes of the labor shortage itself. As you’re undoubtedly aware, this is occurring around the United States–but is particularly bad in Central Florida due to somewhat unique circumstances. While this will normalize to some degree as the economy cools and normalizes, it’ll again be exacerbated by Epic Universe and a slate of other high-profile hospitality industry projects on the horizon.
Frankly, I wonder where Universal is going to find enough frontline employees for Epic Universe. They undoubtedly have a plan as Comcast is a sophisticated business that would certainly be cognizant of the local labor pool. Regardless, it will be an issue–and some of the smaller players that have plans to open in Orlando in the next few years may have a difficult time.
Whether the local labor market (not to mention the housing market, which is already pricing hospitality industry workers out–that’s the reason why Disney is helping to build affordable housing) can sustain not just one, but two more parks, is an open question. Of course, Walt Disney World has the College Program and various other means of importing temporary workers from out of state–and that could certainly help provide the workforce necessary for a fifth gate–but thus far that has not been the case for their 4 gates in the last couple of years. Even with weekly job fairs and regular recruiting, Disney is still falling woefully short on staffing.
In reality, if Disney is going to allocate existing or additional employees to new developments, they’d probably prioritize timeshares and hotels over a theme park. There’s better ROI and less risk, and those are not nearly as resource-intensive. Personally, I think Disney is likely reticent to build new hotels in the near-term, but timeshares are full steam ahead.
Beyond that, there are not actually credible rumors of a fifth gate even being considered (let alone actively worked on) for Walt Disney World. What chatter does exist is wishful thinking by fans who see the existing four Walt Disney World theme parks drawing record crowds, and deducing that the solution is more parks. It’s not a bad idea, but that doesn’t make it a realistic one consistent with Disney’s approach in Florida.
What this wishful thinking fails to take into account is the cost of developing and building new theme parks versus existing ones, the state and trajectory of the global economy, and the vacation trends of potential Walt Disney World visitors. From our perspective, pretty much every reliable indicator is against Walt Disney World building new parks.
Let’s start with visitor patterns. The average American’s vacation is between 4 and 6 days long, depending upon the source consulted. More to the point, that average has been on the decline for the last couple of decades, and Americans are leaving a record number of vacation days on the table (there’s article after article about the shrinking American vacation).
With the duration of the average American vacation on the decline, adding more gates is a tough sell. After factoring in travel days, many Americans already don’t have enough time to experience all four parks plus Disney Springs or water parks plus whatever Universal’s parks might siphon away. This is an issue because it necessarily means that a new park would cannibalize attendance from the existing gates, at least among a good segment of guests.
Of course, this doesn’t take into account the visitors from Europe who each ‘holiday’ at Walt Disney World for approximately 97 days (slight exaggeration), and it also doesn’t account for the diehard American Disney fans reading this who go for 7-10 days every year.
As always, there are outliers–and those of you reading this who measure your annual time at Walt Disney World in weeks are exactly that. The average guest is simply not visiting for that long, and it’s important that we don’t confuse our own anecdotal experiences for the norm.
This relates to the theoretical fifth gate because the concept would need to fit within Walt Disney World’s existing structure as a vacation destination. Not in terms of theme, but in terms of time allocation. This is where all that blue sky fan daydreaming falls apart.
If the majority of visitors to Walt Disney World don’t have another park day to add, that fifth gate is a nonstarter. Heck, if even 30% of Walt Disney World visitors don’t have another potential park day, that’s a serious problem. This would mean that, for a large number of potential Walt Disney World visitors, the day to attend that theoretical 5th gate wouldn’t come from a beach day or be reallocated from another theme park in Orlando, it’d largely come at the expense of Walt Disney World’s existing parks.
Now, you might point to existing crowds in each of the four parks and say, “perfect.” From a guest perspective, there’s tremendous appeal in easing the burden on the existing parks, and decreasing attendance at each of them. I can promise you that Disney does not view things similarly. Decreased attendance at any of the existing parks, even if it meant higher attendance in aggregate, would be a negative. (Don’t believe them when they say the opposite–reducing attendance is not one of Disney’s actual goals.)
Assuming for the sake of argument that Disney does have an issue with current park crowd levels (they don’t), the easier and more cost-effective solution is the one we’ve been seeing over the last several years: expanding the existing parks. Walt Disney World is building out the capacity of its existing gates with attractions like Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, the Guardians of the Galaxy coaster, TRON Lightcycle Power Run, and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge.
While each of these additions is likely to induce more demand than it’ll add capacity (another topic for another day), this approach of expanding the footprint of existing parks is advantageous from Disney’s perspective because it keeps infrastructure costs lower. It also doesn’t require gambling big on a new, untried concept and having to throw more money at that in the future to boost its popularity.
With a new park comes new turnstiles, new backstage facilities, new roads, transportation hubs, and other infrastructure that already exists in support of the existing theme parks. These infrastructure expenses are not insignificant, and it’s difficult to justify their expenditures when the existing parks can be built-out without incurring all of these same costs.
That is to say nothing of labor costs, which would also be higher with a new gate versus an existing gate with added capacity. Simply put, expanding the existing parks is the conservative, cost-effective, and low-risk approach.
Let’s say you still disagree with our assessment for some reason, and think Walt Disney World leadership views a fifth gate as a “good idea” that’s on the horizon. Timing-wise, when do you see Walt Disney World building another theme park?
Personally, I find it difficult to look at recent decisions and conclude, “this is leadership with a grand vision!” To the contrary, they seem content milking what already exists, attempting tricks to increase per guest spending, while boasting about things like yield management rather than their creative vision. In order to bet big on a fifth gate (or anything ambitious) they need to have the zeal and guts to expand. Think back to the biggest Walt Disney World news of the last couple years…does any of that scream “creative vision and ambition” to you?
Beyond that, there are signs of a looming recession or slowdown, declines in consumer confidence, and the travel segment is likely to see pent-up demand fizzle out in the coming months. Of course, whatever is announced today would open in a different environment–maybe debuting during an economic expansion or recovery years from now. Still, building during a downturn requires vision and boldness.
From my perspective, the “best case” scenario for Disney’s boldness right now is seeing the resilience of its theme parks in the last couple of years while also realizing that direct-to-consumer streaming services may not be the robust business model they once thought. In such a scenario, the company’s leaders could feel emboldened to invest in Walt Disney World. Even then, those budgets will be pointed at expanding capacity in existing parks.
As for a 5th park at Walt Disney World sometime beyond that in the long-term, anything is possible. I know that I made the “not in our lifetimes” prediction at the beginning of the post, but that was more for the sake of a bombastic prediction. I personally don’t think that I will ever see a fifth gate, but I’ve been wrong plenty of times before.
Plus, it seems that whenever a prognostication exceeds a 5 year horizon, people tend to forget about it. I’ve seen other Disney commentators share their own “rumors” with regard to fifth gates years ago that should have come to fruition by now and no one has called them on it, so it felt like a safe thing to say. 😉
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Your Thoughts
Do you think a fifth gate is on the horizon at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with our reasons as to why one is unlikely in the foreseeable future? Any other thoughts or commentary to add? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Love the article and information! Some good thoughts on the possibilities of what Disney may be planning to do or not do with the land they’ve been purchasing.
I’ve been reading a few articles about Universal Studios bringing the Nintendo Park into the fold which could draw vacationers away from WDW. If we are talking about the typical family only spending 4-5 days on vacation, would they now be spending less time at the Disney Parks in favor of visiting the Harry potter attractions and the new Nintendo park?
Seems the Star Wars/Avatar parks are going to be geared towards retaining those vacationers, but would a nice, new, shiny park not be a better response to Universal, which seems to be gaining ground on WDW?
I don’t understand all this talk of HAVING to increase the length of your vacation if WDW were to add a fifth park. You don’t HAVE to do anything. My family is going from 4/21-4/27, giving us almost a full six days. We are visiting MK, EPCOT and both water parks for one day each and ending with a resort / pool day on our final day. In no way do I feel I HAVE to visit each of the four major parks for my vacation to be complete. Cost aside, if a fifth park were added, I don’t think everyone would extend their vacations to accommodate more park days. If anything, even though it would increase overall attendance, the crowds would shift and the parks would be less crowded. I think people would change their plans to visit as many of the parks they can in the time they allotted for.
If you are in the position to add more days to visit more parks, awesome! But I don’t think a fifth gate will force many people to increase their time at WDW because they HAVE to visit all the parks.
I completely agree with this comment I’m reply to. Theme parks in Orlando (and a few other locations worldwide) are like a menu at a restaurant: you don’t eat everything at a restaurant in a single visit and won’t do everything in Orlando in a single trip.
Man, the ideas I would have for a 5th Disney Theme park would make it one of the greatest theme parks ever but back to reality. I can’t imagine the cost it would be to add a 5th theme park into park hopper that carries Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom. On top of that, how many people would have the time to fit in their schedule a 5th theme park? Think about the wait time in lines, the costs, paying for kids, waiting in line for monorails, buses, it will just add more expense that people with kids can’t afford. Magic Kingdom alone could take up an entire day with the large crowds and wait times in line. Most people go on 6 day vacations but if Disney were to have a 5th theme park, families would have to push their vacations up to 10 days. That all adds up to travel, hotels, food, transportation. That would simply price families and groups of people out because it’s too expensive or it’s gonna make people limit their stays at certain Disney parks and Disney obviously doesn’t want that to happen because they want everyone in their parks. It would be nice to have a 5th Disney theme park but there comes a point when it’s out of your price range.
A few thoughts on this. Understanding that Disney is a company with the ultimate purpose of survival and making money, it’s hard to see them allocate billions of dollars into a new park. The transportation upgrades alone would cost millions. I also think that the idea of another vacation kingdom in the USA will never happen. In this day of permits, lawsuits, high property taxes, government regulation, etc, I think that the likes of Walt Disney World would never be able to be built in our present society. Watching half a decade of community debate and angst over a Walmart and Sam’s club being built in my community is enough to convince me that a Disney vacation resort occupying thousands of developed and non-developed acres would be a lawsuit magnet. Lastly, I think we will see the trend of increasing park capacity and trying to make them more efficient (eliminate night parades ) and profitable with special events and parties. The main focus of construction will be resorts and DVC. If my math is right, the 20 Polynesian Bungalows alone allowed them to sell about 1,070,000 points for about $150 to $170 million dollars. Those bungalows didn’t cost anywhere near that and put a lot of money into the coffers. Even though they are largely empty, with that type of money being made, we will probably see more cabins and bungalows everywhere before we see a new park. Crescent Lake Beach Club Bungalows anyone?
WDW has been buying more land for 2 reasons. #1 is for all the solar panel fields they are building with Duke Energy. #2 is for the nature credits they can get with the State of Florida so when they want to remove existing trees they can.
Interesting article Tom and I think you are right – it will be a long time before we see a fifth gate at WDW.
I am from the UK and we usually visit WDW for two weeks. If Europeans are able to visit for 97 days may we need to rethink Brexit!
I’m guessing another hotel will be built, possibly one themed on Star Wars or marvel, so much of Disney was female orientated until recent additions, it will be interesting to see
I vote for a new park in a different location…, maybe south Texas near the coast? I’m sure there are other areas that would be of interest. Or maybe some area that is not subject to frequent hurricane/tornado activity (I guess that rules out south Texas near the coast). Living on the east cost, I find it more difficult to travel to the west coast so we are “stuck” with WDW for our Disney fix. I know, I know, all the European/Australian and others are laughing at how that must sound to them, but it is all relative to what you are faced with on a daily basis. Point is, I wouldn’t mind the drive to Texas or other southern mid-western areas to visit a different Disney park.
I’m praying for Tokyo DisneySea to be duplicated in WDW. That would be incredible.
I would rather see them maintain the current parks rather than build a 5th gate. I have a hard time squeezing all 4 parks into one week. If they ever build a 5th gate at WDW or 3rd gate at DL, I hope its similar to Tokyo Disneysea.
You will have a hard time doing everything even if they maintain at four: attendance will increase (long lines) and the number of E ticket rides will increase. Meaning as an overall percentage, you will be doing “less” whether they expand current parks or add a fourth.
What about doing something in the mid west. That would make it much less travel time and more time to spend money. (Just what they want).
I don’t ever see Disney building any park in a location that it could snow or have very cold temps. And like most parks up north like Cedar Point close in the winter. That’s not Disney’s operating style.
Tokyo and Paris both receive regular snowfall. Here are some photos of a freezing, slushy day in Shanghai from last week: https://www.thecoasterkings.com/shanghai-disneyland-snow/
I do agree and disagree with the research. It does snow at parks over seas. But Tokyo Disney is not Owned by Disney. And Paris was a partnership so ridden with debt from the park Disney had to step in and purchase the rest of the partnership from euro Disney S.C.A.
That being said I was referring to parks being built in the United States. We already have established parks and we are not trying to enter another part of an untapped country or region of the world. If another Gate is opened it would be in the southern US where its warm in my opinion.
You don’t know how long I plan to live Tom! 😉
Forget east coast…..when are we going to get the 3rd gate at DLR?
Around 2060 if they started working on the deal this year! The permit process would take 40 years!!!
A lot can happen in a lifetime (from gas-lit Main Street USA to MagicBands).
If demographics is destiny and millennials vote progressive policies and politicians to protect “work-life balance” and enhance their contributions to a “meaningful society,” then the U.S. might actually create a standard vacation minimum – starting with 5 days, then 10 days, and possibly increasing to 15 days within our lifetimes.
I’ll dream of 20 days (minimum) like Western European societies, but I don’t think it’ll happen. That said, if Americans get more vacation days, more time, and more money to spend on vacations, then the number crunchers at Disney might greenlight a 5th gate. Those three new cruise ships cost $1 billion+ each, and the departures from Port Canaveral already invite people to extend their Walt Disney World stays. If cruises go the way of golf, there might be a big decline in the cruise industry post-baby boomers.
I don’t see us getting more time off and simultaneously getting paid more. It generally doesn’t work like that. 😉 Honestly, speaking as someone who has multiple pets, arranging for care (and paying for it) for more than a 6 night vacation is a challenge. (And I feel crazy guilty!) There are varying reasons people don’t take long vacations.
It does work like that in Europe.
Europeans holiday at WDW for approximately 97 days? Seriously? I need to marry me a European ASAP 🙂
Maybe it’s an error. I’m from Europe and have friends who visit Florida for a fortnight, sometimes to visit several theme parks. Not 97 days.
I believe it was satire, my friends.
Yeah that doesnt make sense. Most people in the UK/Europe I know come for 14 days. It’s the standard amount of time. You can get like 10+ solid days of theme parks, and then off days for other stuff.
Not quite, but it certainly feels like it compared to the US norm! We get a minimum of 28 paid leave days a year in the U.K. and we’re almost at the bottom of the list compared to other European countries.
A new gate, no, but a possible additional super deluxe villa/resort? Maybe. Disney seems to be really amping up the high-end vacation goer accommodations and experiences, so a new, closer to an all-inclusive type of resort would fit into the mix well, even in addition to Riviera. And this one could be a deeply themed one, not unlike Animal Kingdom. Or, it could be a sports related compound/arena, or even a space for media production/offices related to future streaming platform. There are so many possibilities!
Wait, the average number of holidays for an American is SIX DAYS A YEAR?????
This…is appalling and cannot be good for anyone’s mental health.
Well, it depends how this is interpreted. I get probably 3 weeks of PTO, but…one week is reserved for obligatory family visits, another week invariably goes to cover various days my son is out of school (between my husband, me, and Grandma, we get it covered!) and that only leaves one week for any actual vacation. And this year the budget won’t allow for any vacation anyway.
Many people don’t get any sort of paid time off at all. I’ve finally got 12 days vacation + holidays + a generous sick leave policy for the first time ever at my new job and I feel incredibly lucky.
I’m from the UK. I have 28 days leave, plus public holidays – another 6. That is certainly above average, but not dramatically so. Oh, and sick leave too of course.
I don’t understand how companies get away with treating their staff so poorly in the US.
Because unfortunately we let corporations corrupt our government and control our lives.
I’ve been saying the same thing for quite some time…even before the recent land purchases. If…and it’s a huge if, Disney has a fifth gate in the works, it’s not coming anytime soon. It’s in the really distant future. My bet is on that there is no plans for a fifth gate. The idea that a fifth gate will dissipate the crowds is fool’s gold. A fifth gate will just bring more people.
I’m glad that Disney is expanding the parks with new attractions. I’m hoping this will help with the crowds. We go several times a year and love going, but would honestly love to see a time where it is a little less crowded than other times. I’m hoping the expansion will help with this.
What about the likelihood of of a 3rd gate at Disneyland Resort or any other gate in North America?
I think you’re on the correct page for the near future Tom. Until Disney can get Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios to be in higher demand I don’t see any reason to build a new park. I think its great to have Pandora and Star Wars Land. Yet does it really draw people to the rest of the park or do they ride the 1-2 rides they want and skip back to MK or Epcot like me for the rest of the day?? Until this issue in my opinion is solved I see no reason to build another Gate. If they can continue to build on AK and HS where guests will stay at those parks all day then I would be more convinced.
P.S. Just incase I am also Wrong what color T-shirt will your be wearing so I can get my 4K!!!!