Will a Fifth Park Be Built at Disney World?
Rumors and speculation are again flying about a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. I’ll make a not-so-bold prediction: Disney won’t build a 5th theme park in Florida any time soon. Want a bolder prediction? No one reading this will see a fifth gate at Walt Disney World in their lifetime. (Updated July 13, 2022.)
To be clear, we’re talking fifth theme park gate–none of that ‘water theme park’ nonsense. (And in any case, it seems like Disney is perfectly content operating only one water park in Orlando right now, so adding a third seems highly unlikely.) This is a topic we’ve touched upon previously (last time due to major land purchases by Disney around Central Florida), but felt it was worth revisiting for a few reasons.
We’ll start with the elephant in the room: Universal’s Epic Universe, the third theme park being built in Central Florida by Comcast. On recent earnings calls, that company’s executives have praised the success of their parks in their post-reopening recovery. This is a big reason why Epic Universe is full steam ahead, and slated to open by Summer 2025. Many fans want Walt Disney World to have an “answer” to Epic Universe, and the only thing that can really compete with a new theme park is a new theme park.
That absolutely will not happen. Even if Disney wanted to build a new theme park and announced one today, there is a 0.000% chance the company could have it open by Summer 2025. Disney is still in the process of cloning a roller coaster in an empty warehouse it announced 5 years ago and has been building for over 4 years.
From what I understand, an entire theme park is considerably more elaborate than even multiple empty warehouses. (Some of the warehouses would, presumably, be filled with things.) In other words, if TRON Lightcycle Run is a reliable gauge of the company’s construction pace, Disney could open a new theme park in approximately 2077 if construction began today. Perhaps that’s a bit hyperbolic…maybe 2055. 😉
That assumes that Disney wants to build another theme park in Central Florida right now, and that is absolutely not the case. In reality, Disney won’t have any official answer to Epic Universe. They won’t acknowledge the project as a threat or Universal as a bona fide competitor. When the Wizarding World of Harry Potter opened, Disney claimed that “a rising tide lifts all boats” — that a stronger Universal was beneficial to Disney because it attracted more people to Central Florida. That’s inarguably true to some extent, but it’s also spin.
Of course, Disney’s tune could change once Epic Universe opens and Universal starts siphoning vacation time or, more importantly, hotel stays away from Walt Disney World. That could prompt the company to get more aggressive after the fact and come up with an answer, but it still won’t be an entire theme park. Now, let’s delve into the why of that.
Again, we’ll start with considerations that are undoubtedly front-of-mind for Florida management. The big one right now is staffing shortages. This seems to come up in just about every other post here these days, and there’s a reason for that: it’s the root cause of many problems and why so much has not returned to normal. It’s the driver behind park reservations and virtually anything that’s still missing from the full Walt Disney World experience right now.
The reason the parks are not at full capacity is entirely driven by staffing shortages, which reduces the total number of guests the parks can accommodate. In a nutshell, if certain entertainment and experiences are missing or the parks are unable to operate for as many hours as normal, overall park capacity decreases. Wait times are longer even though overall attendance limits are (significantly) lower because more guests are consolidated into fewer options.
There’s a certain cynicism among fans that this is intentional, so Walt Disney World can reduce its labor and operational costs. This is patently false. It is accurate that Disney wants to right-size its workforce and optimize efficiency during normal times. That is not what’s presently occurring.
Turning paying customers away during a period of sky-high consumer spending–which is what is happening right now–is a far bigger hit to revenue than the minimal cost of more employees. Just look at the lack of After Hours hard ticket parties, EPCOT festival seminars, and other upcharges–all of which are expensive add-ons for guests–that have not been happening. Disney is literally leaving millions of dollars on the table without these offerings. Does anyone really believe that’s a deliberate choice?
There’s a number of root causes of the labor shortage itself. As you’re undoubtedly aware, this is occurring around the United States–but is particularly bad in Central Florida due to somewhat unique circumstances. While this will normalize to some degree as the economy cools and normalizes, it’ll again be exacerbated by Epic Universe and a slate of other high-profile hospitality industry projects on the horizon.
Frankly, I wonder where Universal is going to find enough frontline employees for Epic Universe. They undoubtedly have a plan as Comcast is a sophisticated business that would certainly be cognizant of the local labor pool. Regardless, it will be an issue–and some of the smaller players that have plans to open in Orlando in the next few years may have a difficult time.
Whether the local labor market (not to mention the housing market, which is already pricing hospitality industry workers out–that’s the reason why Disney is helping to build affordable housing) can sustain not just one, but two more parks, is an open question. Of course, Walt Disney World has the College Program and various other means of importing temporary workers from out of state–and that could certainly help provide the workforce necessary for a fifth gate–but thus far that has not been the case for their 4 gates in the last couple of years. Even with weekly job fairs and regular recruiting, Disney is still falling woefully short on staffing.
In reality, if Disney is going to allocate existing or additional employees to new developments, they’d probably prioritize timeshares and hotels over a theme park. There’s better ROI and less risk, and those are not nearly as resource-intensive. Personally, I think Disney is likely reticent to build new hotels in the near-term, but timeshares are full steam ahead.
Beyond that, there are not actually credible rumors of a fifth gate even being considered (let alone actively worked on) for Walt Disney World. What chatter does exist is wishful thinking by fans who see the existing four Walt Disney World theme parks drawing record crowds, and deducing that the solution is more parks. It’s not a bad idea, but that doesn’t make it a realistic one consistent with Disney’s approach in Florida.
What this wishful thinking fails to take into account is the cost of developing and building new theme parks versus existing ones, the state and trajectory of the global economy, and the vacation trends of potential Walt Disney World visitors. From our perspective, pretty much every reliable indicator is against Walt Disney World building new parks.
Let’s start with visitor patterns. The average American’s vacation is between 4 and 6 days long, depending upon the source consulted. More to the point, that average has been on the decline for the last couple of decades, and Americans are leaving a record number of vacation days on the table (there’s article after article about the shrinking American vacation).
With the duration of the average American vacation on the decline, adding more gates is a tough sell. After factoring in travel days, many Americans already don’t have enough time to experience all four parks plus Disney Springs or water parks plus whatever Universal’s parks might siphon away. This is an issue because it necessarily means that a new park would cannibalize attendance from the existing gates, at least among a good segment of guests.
Of course, this doesn’t take into account the visitors from Europe who each ‘holiday’ at Walt Disney World for approximately 97 days (slight exaggeration), and it also doesn’t account for the diehard American Disney fans reading this who go for 7-10 days every year.
As always, there are outliers–and those of you reading this who measure your annual time at Walt Disney World in weeks are exactly that. The average guest is simply not visiting for that long, and it’s important that we don’t confuse our own anecdotal experiences for the norm.
This relates to the theoretical fifth gate because the concept would need to fit within Walt Disney World’s existing structure as a vacation destination. Not in terms of theme, but in terms of time allocation. This is where all that blue sky fan daydreaming falls apart.
If the majority of visitors to Walt Disney World don’t have another park day to add, that fifth gate is a nonstarter. Heck, if even 30% of Walt Disney World visitors don’t have another potential park day, that’s a serious problem. This would mean that, for a large number of potential Walt Disney World visitors, the day to attend that theoretical 5th gate wouldn’t come from a beach day or be reallocated from another theme park in Orlando, it’d largely come at the expense of Walt Disney World’s existing parks.
Now, you might point to existing crowds in each of the four parks and say, “perfect.” From a guest perspective, there’s tremendous appeal in easing the burden on the existing parks, and decreasing attendance at each of them. I can promise you that Disney does not view things similarly. Decreased attendance at any of the existing parks, even if it meant higher attendance in aggregate, would be a negative. (Don’t believe them when they say the opposite–reducing attendance is not one of Disney’s actual goals.)
Assuming for the sake of argument that Disney does have an issue with current park crowd levels (they don’t), the easier and more cost-effective solution is the one we’ve been seeing over the last several years: expanding the existing parks. Walt Disney World is building out the capacity of its existing gates with attractions like Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, the Guardians of the Galaxy coaster, TRON Lightcycle Power Run, and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge.
While each of these additions is likely to induce more demand than it’ll add capacity (another topic for another day), this approach of expanding the footprint of existing parks is advantageous from Disney’s perspective because it keeps infrastructure costs lower. It also doesn’t require gambling big on a new, untried concept and having to throw more money at that in the future to boost its popularity.
With a new park comes new turnstiles, new backstage facilities, new roads, transportation hubs, and other infrastructure that already exists in support of the existing theme parks. These infrastructure expenses are not insignificant, and it’s difficult to justify their expenditures when the existing parks can be built-out without incurring all of these same costs.
That is to say nothing of labor costs, which would also be higher with a new gate versus an existing gate with added capacity. Simply put, expanding the existing parks is the conservative, cost-effective, and low-risk approach.
Let’s say you still disagree with our assessment for some reason, and think Walt Disney World leadership views a fifth gate as a “good idea” that’s on the horizon. Timing-wise, when do you see Walt Disney World building another theme park?
Personally, I find it difficult to look at recent decisions and conclude, “this is leadership with a grand vision!” To the contrary, they seem content milking what already exists, attempting tricks to increase per guest spending, while boasting about things like yield management rather than their creative vision. In order to bet big on a fifth gate (or anything ambitious) they need to have the zeal and guts to expand. Think back to the biggest Walt Disney World news of the last couple years…does any of that scream “creative vision and ambition” to you?
Beyond that, there are signs of a looming recession or slowdown, declines in consumer confidence, and the travel segment is likely to see pent-up demand fizzle out in the coming months. Of course, whatever is announced today would open in a different environment–maybe debuting during an economic expansion or recovery years from now. Still, building during a downturn requires vision and boldness.
From my perspective, the “best case” scenario for Disney’s boldness right now is seeing the resilience of its theme parks in the last couple of years while also realizing that direct-to-consumer streaming services may not be the robust business model they once thought. In such a scenario, the company’s leaders could feel emboldened to invest in Walt Disney World. Even then, those budgets will be pointed at expanding capacity in existing parks.
As for a 5th park at Walt Disney World sometime beyond that in the long-term, anything is possible. I know that I made the “not in our lifetimes” prediction at the beginning of the post, but that was more for the sake of a bombastic prediction. I personally don’t think that I will ever see a fifth gate, but I’ve been wrong plenty of times before.
Plus, it seems that whenever a prognostication exceeds a 5 year horizon, people tend to forget about it. I’ve seen other Disney commentators share their own “rumors” with regard to fifth gates years ago that should have come to fruition by now and no one has called them on it, so it felt like a safe thing to say. 😉
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Your Thoughts
Do you think a fifth gate is on the horizon at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with our reasons as to why one is unlikely in the foreseeable future? Any other thoughts or commentary to add? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
With Bob Chapek now running the show, a 5th gate is a more likely possibility than when Iger was CEO.
Iger came from a broadcasting background, and so naturally his focus gravitated towards acquiring TV and film related properties.
Chapek on the other hand was Chairman of Disney Parks since 2015, and has opened lands and entire parks before, so he’s likely much more interested in building new parks from a personal perspective, including a 5th gate, than Iger ever was
You might want to read more about Bob Chapek and his background. Or at least watch the interviews he did around the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge.
Any more talk about adding countries to EPCOT?
Bravo Tom.
I agree with every word.
I’ve long maintained a fifth gate was unnecessary as long as current park development continued.
Despite the confident proclamations of some very popular Vloggers, it won’t happen for a very, very long time.
If Disney wants to decrease the crowding they can quickly do something that will cost them zero investment dollars: increase the Park hours. Yes, that would increase operating costs but (hopefully) the improved visitor experience would be worth it in the long run.
More importantly, in accounting we learn there are two kinds of costs: fixed costs and variable costs. Building a 5th gate is a fixed cost, and difficult to scale back when the economy worsens and park attendance decreases. But the number of hours a park is open is a variable cost, and one which can be adjusted very, very quickly if needed. And with the current reduced hours (when viewed historically) they have plenty of capacity which can quickly be added whenever they choose.
Right, but that would require them to cut back on the amount of ticketed AH or EMH events that they are currently offering. Why would they offer MORE regular park hours, when people will happily pay for a regular ticket AND a ticket allowing them to stay for a few hours past what would be actual closing time.
It’s an algebra equation. We’d all love to see a 5th gate but I agree that what makes sense is to expand the already existing parks by adding new worlds. This is desperately needed as the lines are too long and if it continues or gets worse that will send people elsewhere. More rides + more worlds = shorter waits + more space + more happy repeat customers.
My family has been going to Disney World at least once a year for the last 20 plus years. Our normal trip time was 5 days and we could see/do everything we wanted. I agree a 5th park doesn’t make sense and expanding the existing parks to help spread out the crowds would be better. I hope thats the plan because it seems like lately they have decided to replace old things with new things within the same foot print of the parks and crowds and wait times continue to get larger and longer to a point that weve opted to skip this last year of Disney and go to Universal. I look at value for the dollar and i dont consider waiting in lines for half the day any value at all. Even with fast passes and Disney prices continuing to rise we are getting less of the park experiences for more cost. Not good!
I was a Controller for a Multinational Developer and your Development and Infrastructure points are absolutely valid. Of course anything can happen but I believe it is doubtful that Disney will have a 5th gate in my lifetime either (although my lifetime is much shorter than yours) but calculated growth within the existing 4 gates is the more prudent and less costly alternative.
Question for you, Tom: what (if anything) do you think Disney will do in response to Universal’s third gate that is opening in the next few years? Some of the Fifth Gaters have pointed out that Disney hasn’t really let a major expansion at Universal go “unanswered” since the first segment of the Wizarding World opened. I agree that I don’t think a 5th park is on the table but I would be surprised if Disney doesn’t come up with some kind of splashy announcement to try and steal some of Universal’s thunder.
My problem is more that they are not managing the crowds inside the parks well. In my eyes the only way to manage the crowds now that they have limited fastpass as much as they did with my Disney experience (that to me was when the crowds seemed to get worse) is to get those crowds spread out over more land. I understand that Disney doesn’t see it that way though.
Until any of the Florida Disney parks can offer the number of rides, shows and attractions that just Disneyland park offers, I don’t want to hear about any 5th gate.
How about the fifth park themed after the hottest streaming show out there,
Stranger Things. It seems to attract all age groups. I am 66 and await season three. Similar to
What brought Universal out of near bankruptcy with The Wizarding world of Harry Potter.
We need more true Value resorts for the average working class to enjoy and be able to stay on Disney property.
If it was only one hotel i would say you are correct in saying no 5th gate however. There is a truly massive addition to Coronado springs being built, along with the Rivera resort both opening this year. On top of these two hotels ground has been broke on reflections of bay lake the hotel that is being built ontop of the old river country water park and the yet to be named galaxy’s edge hotel both of which should open within the next 2 years. Now aside from these huge expansions to guest accommodations disney also purchased two massive plots of land that disney has dedicated to conservation efforts. The last time disney did this it was part of a deal to develop land that Disney already owned. That being said there is room within Disney peoperty for a 5th gate. These factors combined with the growing competition from universal and its current expansion projects and already confirmed future expansions i believe its only a matter of time before massive expansions happen at Disney. Most people see these expansions as being a 5th gate however im leaning more towards expansions within the parks in a effort to have vacationers physically see things that they run out of time to do so that they end their vacation already in the mind set of that looks amazing we have to do that next trip. I feel these expansions will be similar to the heavily themed lands we are seeing now such as toy story land and galaxy’s edge. Also listening to interviews with Bob Igar this has already been very vaguely confirmed with his statement about imagineers already working on expansions to tomorrowland that go far beyond the addition of the tron coaster. So in my opinion a fifth gate is unlikely however i do see every park expanding to the point of a 2 to 3 day park. This will disperse crowds bring even more magic and encourage even more repeat vacationers as they will see things on their trip that they simply run out of time to do and have to plan another trip to accommodate all the attractions they missed. Either way one thing is for sure big changes are coming.
I’m hoping they do build a 5th gate especially with Universal building Fantastic Worlds which will likely be extremely popular. A new ride here and there can’t compete with a whole new theme park at Universal.
100% true but 12 yrs back, I had always know some day there would be a 5th theme park, an Imagineer in Orlando whom I knew I had asked so what about the 5th theme park, he said wow I just got back from CA and seena prototype model, I knew with Disney its to project out 5-10-15 yrs, but its going to happen its just when, so while you can say its a rumor its on Disney’s planning board, at the time it was to be called Villains, which makes sense but now 10 plus years later who knows, while Disney sold off land called the Panther project , there is still plenty of land to build a 5,6th etc , I feel this pretty good guess, they are expanding in good times what they already have, even revamp EPCOT, once they have done hat they can watch out 5th park here we come, its business decision, assumption UNiversal Studios has a brilliant and young engineer who helped with the cutting edge rides there, Disney Imagineers will probably make the 5th a HIGH tECH wonder with stuff we have never seen yet somewhat copied from Universal Studios.
I agree with your assessment, and I believe the “Fifth Gate” idea comes from a conclusion with a solution by Disney Fans. Disney Fans see increasing Hotels, increasing crowds, decreasing magic, and decreasing rides (increasing wait times) and they think Disney will need a “Fifth Gate” to revive the magic of Disney World.
By the time Disney realizes the problem they created, it will be too late to develop a “Fifth Gate”.
For those who will say Disney added two rides in Pandora, two rides in Toy Story Land, and two rides in Star Wars Land (or Samsung), yes those are more rides. But the number of rides are not keeping up with guests, and Disney has closed almost all of Future World at Epcot.
As DVC members since the first year and visitors since the mid 80’s we go to WDW one to two times a year and then do the DCL almost every year – we are also stock holders and let me tell you – since Eisner left Disney almost everything about it has been going downhill for years and years. Disney has lost almost all the magic that they once had. I could go on and on and on about what all the idiotic, dimwits have done to destroy the magic of Disney but the worst thins is to retire all the people that knew what Disney and it’s magic has always been and to hire a bunch of millennials for positions of power – positions that millennials have NO CLUE about and do not care about – the biggest concern in the last 18-20 years has been all about thew money and ;very little about the magic i.e. The world of Disney in “Downtown” Disney (sorry but we can not bring ourselves to call it Disney Springs) has almost NOTHING to do with Disney anymore with all the great ceiling artwork and such gone and all the inner walls disappear into one HUGE shopping mall with very little “uniquely” Disney anymore and then they took the great bus stops out on the routes around Downtown Disney to ONE that is intended to DUMP YOU OUT ad the center of the ULTRA HIGH DOLLAR shops and to get anywhere you have to hoof it back and forth .
Forgive me but as a DVC owner and a stock holder I am REALLY pissed at how Disney corporate is treating the “guests” that have made them who they are.
The forgotten Child – as in “Children of ALL ages” that Walt once said he built ALL this for.
Oh and my old man was an artist for them back in the mid 60’s
One of the best descriptions of Disney I have read!
Wish it was not true but you are spot on!
At this point I just don’t see a way the Magic of years past will return!!
I concur 200%. DVC since 2003, annual passholder and very small stock holder. Crowds are terrible, prices for renewing, food, everything. And yes, Disney Springs is a monstrosity. Nothing like quaint Downtown Disney with the Marketplace. I still dislike Avatar being added to the Animal Kingdom. It is all about the almighty buck these days. Too many hotels are being built. Where are all the people going to fit? In the parks, around the current pools? No.
The majority of guests that visit Disney world stay offsite. Disney adding hotel rooms isn’t going to change the crowd levels much. It’s just going to convert those offsite guests into onsite guests. But over all it’s not going to bring more people.
Unfortunately I agree with you. But it does make much more sense for them to expand existing parks instead of building not only a new park but all the infrastructure to support it.
Perhaps my grandchildren will see on day. Besides – a new park was just built in China. I do think we’ll see another Disney Park in my lifetime. Just not in Florida.
I generally agree. However, one point I might quibble with is that even if tourists spend the same number of days at the parks and thus skip one or two parks, that would make them more likely to go back. We went to Disney World for five days and only made it to three of the parks. We went to Disneyland for five days and did everything. We’re going back to Disney World to make sure we include the fourth park, but considered skipping one of the other three. I don’t feel it is as necessary to go back to Disneyland as soon because we didn’t miss anything.
I agree it would be way more cost efficient to reuse remodel and expand on what they already have to stay a viable attraction with room for more people and better newer attractions. They are already being vastly outstripped in builds by Universal who throws up an entire water park in the time it take Disney to even think about completing the little that is Toystoryland.
With Universal holding a death grip on the Marvel characters like Xmen, Cap and Spiderman the best Disneyworld can do is find other creations to spin rides and attractions on par with Universal Studios Spiderman and Transformers.
True, their existing parks are COMICALLY outdated. Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studio were basically half-day parks for decades and Epcot’s Future World is a total joke. They can’t even move the tanks over to AK. The Magic Kingdom is like getting into a time machine and Tomorrowland should be called Yesterland.
Disney the company has become complacent buying back tens of billions in stock and investing in foreign parks that make no money. That’s where I disagree with the author. If you study their 10Ks, they haven’t even been making money with the sum of their foreign parks. Hong Kong was idiotic and building another park so close to it was even more idiotic. They might make a profit some day at Shanghai (after huge initial investments) but incomes are not very high and the timing was atrocious. Talk about a gamble, it’s a Communist country with an undervalued currency that is at odds with the US! Europe is notorious for labor disputes and they totally flopped Walt Disney Studio Park. Japan didn’t take shortcuts and everyone likes their park the best. Not surprisingly, it’s not run by Disney. If they were willing to sink billions upon billions abroad, it would have been a no-brainer to instead invest in totally-behind Orlando, which has no regulations with much higher demand and incomes.
Who cares..Disney rules. What world are you living in. WDW is updating all 4 parks right now. Stop trolling.
I agree completely, and pray we’re right. While a fifth park would be fun, there’s a reason every other new park (globally) is DisneyLAND and not Disney WORLD.
P.S. is there any way to change my name on the newsletter? It comes to Laineu because I made a typing error. At first, I thought no big deal. But it’s starting to bug me lol (totally my mistake, no fault of yours).
If they were to build another park, it would have been the Star Wars land that will be a part of Hollywood studios. Sublands are what we will see going forward, not extra gates.
Been DVC since 2008 and love it more than ever. The same people who complain about losing the Magic are the ones complaining things are outdated. Stop complaining or sell so I can get better villas on short notice.