Pent-Up Demand at Disney World: Scorching Summer or Full Fall?
For years, this site has focused on the intersection of attendance and discounts at Walt Disney World. It’s fun to compare deals and discuss when crowd patterns might necessitate special offers to incentivize visits. (We take pride in our historical predictions and rumors of Free Dining drop day, although that now feels like the ancient past!)
Long term predictions have been another story, with our track record being spottier. Last March shortly after the parks closed, we addressed the question of whether Walt Disney World would offer aggressive discounts after reopening. While there have been some strong targeted deals–like over half off hotels–those haven’t been available to the general public. I’d say we got that one wrong.
Later in the year, we discussed “Revenge Travel” at Walt Disney World in 2021. You’ve probably seen a mention and link to this in another post (or 20). That’s because I think it’s a really fascinating topic that could have significant implications for crowds, attendance, and pricing at Walt Disney World later this year. I’ll admit that I was first skeptical of the supposed phenomenon, but that is no longer the case, whatsoever…
One of the finance experts I read recently remarked that “this summer’s overpriced hotels, flights and Airbnb’s will be brought to you by Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Moderna. (I cannot wait to overpay for a vacation).” In a March investor note, Morgan Stanley put an even finer point on it, saying “the recession is effectively over.”
This got me thinking, and wanting to revisit the topic of pent-up travel demand as it relates to Walt Disney World.
One year ago, we were seeing the stock market dive, businesses close, and unemployment numbers soar by record weekly numbers. It looked like we were entering a recession or worse, and the future seemed bleak.
In countless ways, I still cannot believe how the past year has unfolded. One of those is how the United States economy has roared back to life, with growth set to defy even the most optimistic expectations. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP growth by as much as 10% for the first quarter of 2021. On a household level, personal income jumped by 10% to start the year, which is a record.
The personal savings rate has also surged by over 20% to start 2021, and has been high throughout the last year as many Americans have been stuck at home and saving money in the process. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, Americans had a record $3.9 trillion in savings as of this January, which is up from $1.38 trillion in February of last year. That already high number continues to grow!
Then there’s the forthcoming $1.9 trillion stimulus. The headline grabber with this is the $1,400 checks, but that’s only part of the story. The average middle class family of 4 will receive roughly $12,000 in benefit between the direct payments and more generous child tax credit. As the Washington Post illustrates, some individuals and families will receive much more in cumulative aid.
These bills aren’t perfect–no legislation is. There are legitimate fears of inflation. Some households and small businesses will receive an unneeded windfall, others won’t get all of the help they need. The same goes for the recession itself, which has created winners and losers.
Frankly, it’s very difficult for me to wrap my head around some of this while sitting in Central Florida and seeing firsthand how the hospitality industry has been ravaged over the last year. Right now, things are not looking so rosy here. This commentary is not to diminish any of the real pain people are suffering while facing still sky-high levels of unemployment and economic setbacks. All of that is a bit beyond the scope of this post, however.
The practical reality is that even as many people are struggling, many have saved money in the last year–and are poised to receive even more soon. Unlike some past stimulus packages that have disproportionately favored big businesses, the main beneficiaries of this will be the middle class families, which is Walt Disney World’s core demographic.
This alone would seem to answer the question of whether Walt Disney World is going to see skyrocketing attendance thanks to pent-up demand in Summer 2021 and beyond. But there’s more to it than that…
I don’t doubt for a second that the travel and tourism sector as a whole is going to surge this summer. We’ve already heard numerous reports of all-inclusive resorts being totally sold out for the second half of 2021 and seen firsthand the popularity of bookings in beach cities. However, Walt Disney World has its own unique wrinkles.
There’s a dramatically reduced slate of shows and entertainment, nighttime spectaculars are still on hiatus, reduced restaurant lineup, scaled back menus, and temporary suspension of many offerings—like FastPass+ and the Disney Dining Plan—that many Walt Disney World fans have come to love. In a nutshell, the normal experience is compromised. By and large, that’s not the case at other popular vacation destinations.
At Walt Disney World, there’s also the divisive temporary health safety protocol. For months, I’ve been bullish about Walt Disney World’s timeline for relaxing physical distancing and face mask rules. Not to the degree some of you would like to hear, but more than other commentators or timelines from public health officials. Even as Walt Disney World has enacted some stricter rules for the near-term, I stand by all of those predictions.
Physical distancing and attendance caps are Walt Disney World’s biggest impediment to profitability–the parks are not profitable at 35% of capacity, they’re just losing less money than they would if closed. Disney will want to drop these protocol and rules as soon as practical. (That’ll likely be later than most businesses as Disney needs to err on the side of caution and its reputation for safety.)
We’re already seeing some states ditch their rules, and more will undoubtedly follow suit if the early-movers are “vindicated” by numbers that continue to decline. Based solely on seasonality, current trajectory, and vaccination rates, that seems likely. Moreover, public tolerance of face masks, especially once vaccines are widely available, is going to plummet.
Being fully vaccinated is effectively the end of this for most people, and they’ll want to behave accordingly. No matter how people might feel about masks right now, the vast majority won’t want to continue having to wear them long after they’ve been vaccinated, especially on vacation.
Not to go off on too much of a tangent, but after months of “massaging” the message, telling people what they thought they needed to hear, or flat-out obfuscating, I was heartened by the CDC’s new guidelines for fully vaccinated individuals. There’s still a long way to go, but this is a big step that reflects a shift in messaging and better balance, which is necessary if the CDC wants its advice to remain relevant to real world behavior.
In pertinent part, the CDC said that “if grandparents have been vaccinated, they can visit their daughter and her family, even if they have not been vaccinated so long as the daughter and her family are not at risk for severe disease.” My from perspective, it also could be a precursor to how the CDC will handle bigger picture guidance given that most kids likely will not be vaccinated in 2021. It’s still a ways off, but it’s easy to extrapolate from that quote. Again, very relevant to Walt Disney World’s face mask and physical distancing rules given its core demographics.
With all of that said, there’s also the reality that many potential Walt Disney World guests won’t start booking trips until there’s more clarity about the aforementioned limitations, cutbacks, etc. Beyond the return of Festival of the Lion King, Walt Disney World has said very little about what guests can expect to be back this summer. No offense to that show, but it’s not going to cut it in terms of luring a large number of visitors.
Those stimulus checks will likely go out within the next week, and many will be spent immediately on summer vacations. It’s difficult to fathom Walt Disney World announcing the return of entertainment, debut of new attractions, restoration of popular perks & amenities, reopening of more hotels, and relaxation of rules in that time.
Quite simply, many will assess the situation in the next few weeks, and book summer travel elsewhere. As we’ve said before, think of Walt Disney World like an ocean liner: you turn the wheel slowly, and the big ship pivots gradually. Everything takes time from decision to implementation, and it’s premature to make most of these decisions right now.
Walt Disney World is undoubtedly cognizant of vacation booking timelines, and has already decided to look past summer and towards fall. (The just-announced opening date of Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure reinforces this notion.) That won’t stop Walt Disney World from making a concerted marketing push and scoring some summer bookings. However, advertisements alone aren’t going to be enough for a scorching summer at Walt Disney World.
Then there’s youth events, international visitors, and conventions. These have been significant growth areas for Walt Disney World in the last decade, to the point that several venues–like Gran Destino Tower and expansions to the ESPN Wide World of Sports–were purpose-built for them and multiple hotels are dependent upon them.
While I suspect a portion of this business is gone forever and will never fully recover, that’s another topic for another day. At the very least, this is all going to be much slower to return than domestic leisure travel and most of it won’t be back before 2022.
This puts Walt Disney World in an interesting and somewhat unique position. At some point later this year, there will likely be more demand than normal from American tourists, but overall resort bookings might still be softer than normal.
How Walt Disney World will handle this is anyone’s guess. They might keep some hotels shuttered until 2022 to constrain supply and keep prices high. They might accelerate plans to reopen the Port Orleans and All Star Resorts, and use more aggressive discounts to fill the rooms that are inevitably unsold. (Some room categories are already selling out for October and beyond, so my guess would be the latter.)
On the plus side, we’d anticipate there continuing to be opportunities to score deals on hotels at Walt Disney World between now and September 2021 as Walt Disney World continues to fall well short of its past occupancy levels through Summer 2021. Conversely, crowds are likely to increase as more people get vaccinated and are comfortable traveling, at least so long as that capacity cap is in place. (Summer “feels like” crowds are thus entirely dependent upon when physical distancing rules are relaxed and attraction capacity is restored.)
At some point late this summer or in early fall, there will almost certainly be a “sweet spot” where most people are holding off on vacations until the start of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary and when attendance caps are lifted, offerings are reinstated and/or expanded, and soft openings of new stuff begin. When that’ll start to occur is impossible to predict, but I’d be feeling pretty good about an early to mid September 2021 vacation to Walt Disney World right about now…
Ultimately, it’s difficult to predict with certainty how “revenge travel” will play out at Walt Disney World. However, it’s almost certainly a matter of when–not if–at this point. As we’re starting to see with spring break dates, demand is already exceeding supply–but that’s when attendance is capped at an unsustainable 35% and only a portion of the hotels and restaurants are open.
Walt Disney World could capitalize on what is sure to be a busy and lucrative summer for the tourism industry. Given the vaccine timeline, Walt Disney World’s conservative approach to the phased reopening, and lag time between bookings and travel dates, that seems unlikely. Unless something changes dramatically in the very near future, the most plausible scenario is that Disney uses the summer to scale up, setting the stage for the 50th Anniversary and what should be a big holiday season building into an even bigger 2022.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise significantly come Summer 2021, or will people hold off until October 2021? Do you think they’ll be worse than normal due to pent-up demand or below average due to the economy and/or other factors? Planning any “revenge travel” of your own? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Tom, always appreciate your insights. Regarding nighttime entertainment, do you think the fact that Harmonious was NOT announced yesterday as also arriving on October 1st means that Disney is trying for an earlier (i.e., Summer) launch? We’ll be there in mid-June and hoping that there will be at least some kind of night show by that time. Seems like that would help bring in some folks and encourage longer stays as park hours are hopefully extended by then
Hi Tom, I am doing my “revenge travel” right now, this moment. I am in a hotel that’s 10 minutes from my house. I paid $100 for one night: standard room, 2 queen beds, 500 square feet. It has a little waterslide at the pool, and my kids had a blast on it, it’s been almost 2 years since our last Disney trip when we enjoyed waterslides. I just checked: by July, this $100 room will cost $500 per night, and it’s nearly all booked already. Other local hotels are booked solid for the summer, I can’t even get a room if I wanted to. So, I’m getting my travel desires out of the way locally because I’m not risking getting on the airplane and not be allowed to come back because my kids developed a cough or something.
Great insight. Now we need you to tell us when and if you think Disney will offer some travel deals besides the wonderful (sarcastic) ticket deal they are offering for the summer months. Surprised they have not come out with fun in the sun or other room discounts for the end of June, July and August.
Thanks!
Man, who cares about Fastpass coming back? I’ll schedule my next trip as soon as Winter Summerland reopens!
I may be wrong but I think it’s open. Supposedly it was available to us last Dec. .
Most years here in AZ, families swarm California for beach and Disney travel over spring break. Anecdotally, many of those people we know are traveling to Florida in the next couple weeks over our spring break season. The states that are opening up more are going to see the tourist dollars come back faster than those with complicated regulations or restrictions.
I definitely agree with that, and Florida’s airport numbers for spring break also bear this out.
The question is what happens to a business with complicated restrictions in a state with none? Most people who visit WDW do minimal planning or research (heresy to readers of a blog like this, but true). I wonder how many of them won’t realize there’s a mask rule until arriving. As the proportion of tourists rises and more states and businesses drop their rules, I’d imagine this is going to become a growing issue.
I’m finally visiting WDW in January, and it is going to be refreshing to go from avoiding conversations with strangers due to the pandemic to avoiding conversations with strangers due to my crippling social anxiety. Very much looking forward to it!
No Gavin that trip? 😉
Gav is a perpetual no-show, but he will always have a place at my table.
Good chance Gavin will be showing up at the end of the year when he may have lots of free time on his hands. But don’t let him in if he shows up with a friend named Andrew.
Haha, no kidding!
Ironically, I *will* be showing up January 2022. Just at the end of the month…
I’ll add a couple of points in different areas. First- I talk to several people in the travel industry on a regular basis. Cheap airline flights are everywhere for domestic travel right now. However- the end game can be high. Case in point- I’m in PA- and I friend booked flights to spend time in Yellowstone this summer- those flights were less than half the cost would have been when he looked last year- pre pandemic. However- the same hotel costs are double. This stuff is happening all over. I was also told that the island all inclusive resorts are 95-100% booked in september and october in a lot of cases right now. I feel like theme park hotels will be not available at all come mid april for the summer. Beach condo’s are booking faster than normal also on the east coast.
That all said- Last year- I made the decision the day that disney announced when they were reopening to bump my expected late June trip back to July 20th (11 days). I figured it would be a once in a lifetime opportunity- and also doubled up buy buying AP’s for Universal for the first time ever. Both were possibly the best travel decisions of my life- and easily the best vacation in my 47 years on this rock. I thought then- that once things get back to normal, it will be worse then ever, and I completely expect that. We have 2 weeks there in june-july- and plan to enjoy it knowing that we will probably be experiencing higher than normal summer lines….
Agree with your conclusions and observations.
The one thing I think will change is flight prices. We’re working on getting tentative flights booked via Southwest to lock-in pricing before any price increases occur. That seems like an inevitability in the near future.
As a middle class family that won’t be receiving any stimulus or tax breaks I hope the people that receive tax dollars actually spend it at Disney to hopefully bring back more employees. My guess is that executives will take the funds, yachts don’t fuel or drive themselves ya know.
You might mention how much of this bill is actually attributed to families receiving it, last I checked it was a very small portion of the total bill.
Spend away!
Do you think this pent up travel energy will increase DVC sales?
I feel like summer time will be the start to Disney transitioning to normal. If we stay on track for vaccine distribution I do not see why Disney cannot start to return to normalcy. I agree the CDC’s new guidance is defenitly making me feel by at some point this summer we will no longer need masks or distancing. Even though kiddos under 12 won’t get the vaccine till probably early 2022, 12 and above should be able to get it by fall. I do not think under 12 not being able to get it will stop the world from returning to normal. Kiddos are not having the same issues with Covid as the older adults and because they have very mild symptoms or no symptoms their viral load is much lower and much less likely to transmit, according to the CDC. With all that in mind Tom do you have a guess as to when we might see character meet and greets return? Especially if those particular CM’s are vaccinated?
“Even though kiddos under 12 won’t get the vaccine till probably early 2022, 12 and above should be able to get it by fall. I do not think under 12 not being able to get it will stop the world from returning to normal.”
Same, and it would seem the CDC is suggesting as much by indicating that vaccinated grandparents can meet with unvaccinated family that’s low-risk. Between that guidance and the fact that most kids are low-risk, I think we can extrapolate how the CDC will likely treat physical distancing and mask-wearing in general once more of the population is vaccinated or otherwise has immunity.
I still think meet & greets will be one of the last things to return. It seems pretty unlikely Disney will require CMs to be vaccinated, which would be one impediment to that. Who knows, though.
Sorry to be a bit negative but I think the optimism may be a bit early. Some of continental Europe is heading into a third wave as we speak…. even if vaccines are 85% effective against severe disease, than means 15% still get severe disease. It’s not out of the woods by any means. The ‘it’s over!’ Narrative is a bit dangerous as people will continue to get sick… and creates a negative cycle for vaccine uptake as may later appear that the shots ‘aren’t working’.
I think you’re right that there is huge pent up demand in the middle classes but I wonder how well that translates into desire to get into a plane. I would wager most families wont be booking until all adults have had two jabs at least.
Also don’t forget that international visitor numbers are going to be way, way down for 2021.
Counterpoint: withholding the upsides of vaccination or acting like those who are vaccinated need to carry on life as before makes people on the fence think “why bother?” and not get vaccinated.
All three vaccines are 100% effective at presenting death and hospitalization. In my view, none of the other numbers matter. If I have a 100% chance of not dying (of this), that’s what matters to me.
As for a resurgence in Europe, that’s a fair point. However, I’d be most inclined to look at the UK’s still-falling numbers as that’s the only country on par with the US when it comes to vaccinations.
That’s not what % effective means. Think of it more as the percentage risk reduction. Fully vaccinated Pfizer/Moderna folks have 5% of the -chance- of getting Covid with symptoms. It’s not that 5% of them get Covid. It’s that unvaccinated me is 20 times more likely to get it than my vaccinated parents.
I work in the industry; oversee destinations across the entire country. Where state and local restrictions are loosening, demand is at all-time highs. Rates have been unaffected. Barring some sort of resurgence in covid, this is going to be a busy summer nearly everywhere but Alaska.
Thanks for sharing your insight!
MY question is, when will room discounts beyond July drop? Surprised they haven’t yet for August, which makes me think Disney is expecting high attendance then! (I hope not – our 2020 trip is rescheduled for August 2020 and we were counting on lower crowds…)
We’re in the same boat! We have a reservation for late July, and we booked it hoping we’d see a room discount come through for the remainder of the summer dates. I think historically Disney has released the late summer room deals in April, but the waiting and uncertainty around this is killing me.
Haha, it’s funny that you think I’m out of the middle class. I wish! I haven’t read the porkulous bill, but from what I saw, I am not expecting to receive any porkulous check this time. Which is fine, because I am fortunate enough that I don’t need it. But I DO NOT appreciate being stuck with the upcoming massive increases in taxes by the very people who caused the recession in the first place and are now pandering and pontificating that they are here to help us. Yeah, nice try.
I do hope that the millions of folks who lost work or their jobs or businesses recover and can enjoy some sort of vacation this year, Disney or not. It’s poised to be an interesting year, to be sure!
My feelings exactly!
Gasoline prices in SW Florida just went up 10 cents a gallon this morning. Now around $2.70. In January it was still closer to $2.15.
Gas in San Antonio is $2.40, and that’s way too high!
In Pittsburgh, it’s over $3. Granted, we have the second highest (might be highest, I try to pretend it’s only 2nd) gas tax in the country, but it’s making me glad to still be working from home 2 days a week.
Gas in NY is up 60 cents since the end of January. The price will continue to rise and will be over $3 easily by summer. Next year $3.50? And it’s not the price of gas that’s the worst part. We’re talking the price of everything here. Food , Clothing, airlines, trucking, trains, anything made with or uses plastics, heating, cooling, energy. The entire ball of wax. What makes me nervous is that the gov’t is printing money to the point where the debt is becoming unsustainable while many gov’t actions are actually killing jobs and business’ which in turn lowers revenue, destroys a middle class and creates more poverty. As a flaming liberal who has dedicated the last 22 years to helping the poor I can tell you I hope I’m wrong. Time will be good for the rest of 2021. I hope I’m worrying needlessly. Let’s hope I’m wrong.
Mickey1928, one station I pass on my commute went up to $2.50 today, not good. You’re right, it flows across the market. I’ve been complaining that when they increased shipping costs due to fuel prices, they never went back down even when gas was under $2. So now, expect them to increase again under the same excuse. As much as I loathe any new or increased tax, we don’t have any choice but to raise fuel taxes in order to rebuild roads and bridges. And if you want true green energy, we need more nuclear power plants. Smaller, regional plants, and we need to start reprocessing all of the spent fuel sitting around and burning it in newer modern reactors. Molten salt reactors look pretty promising. So start gardening for fresh vegetables, you’ll need them.
Mrnico – hear! hear! Only 9% of that porkulous bill was covid-related – disgusting. Not only will we be stuck with that 91% unnecessary debt burden, but so will our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Can’t wait to escape this reality at the happiest place on earth. 🙂
DebC, I paid $2.89/gallon for gas (regular) yesterday in NJ. I expect it will soon be higher. I live in a beach area and gas prices always increase during summer months here.
Sigh. The national debt first when up under the previous administration due to tax cuts (always strange when there are taxes cuts made during an existing deficit AND a strong stock market, but whatever). Most of that tax cuts were for middle class and up, with a focus on large businesses, which probably didn’t need them. That tax cut also had a hike built in for 2021 anyway.
It sucks that we’re in a deficit, and I think everyone wishes we could stop spending but there are so many people put of work and on the precipice of financial ruin that there’s not much choice–even the previous administration recognized that when approving the initial stimulus. I care less about gas prices and more about the fact that many food banks have hours-long lines.
Luckily my family hasn’t been deeply impacted, but my friends who work in event management and theater production have spent the year jobless and in terror of running out of money to support themselves; those who could moved back in with family. Some people honestly don’t have the luxury to worry about the deficit or the price of gas.
Again, not arguing that the deficit isn’t bad–y’all have legitimate points and concerns here. I just *personally* feel like having a balanced govt budget should take a backseat to potential widespread poverty and homelessness, which will negatively impact the economy anyway.
Full disclaimer, just my personal opinion! Same as you have the right to yours (I promise I’m not trying to start a big argument or convince you my side is “right” or “better” or anything), only pointing out that there are also legitimate reasons why it might make sense to run up a deficit.
Cruzer – I’d be right there with you except that only NINE PERCENT of that bill was for covid relief.
Cruzer, the issue isn’t strictly the deficit. We haven’t had an actual balanced budget at any point in my lifetime probably. It’s the billions of my tax dollars going to prop up failures like union pension funds and local and state governments who were failing long before this and do not deserve to be subsidized by the rest of the nation. I agree, the tax cuts went too far and should’ve been more focused on middle class and small businesses, those of us who are hurt the most by mandated wage increases and regulations. I’m talking about the new taxes we will undoubtedly see to pay for the pork in this massive boondoggle.
I’m in favor of helping out people impacted by loss of income, especially small businesses. But not unions or these states that shut down their own economies, cutting off their own tax revenues. That’s their problem, not mine. I grew up in NM, one of the poorest and habitually mismanaged, backwards states in history. Yet my underpaid public school teacher parents somehow managed to scrape up the cash to take us to WDW and DL multiple times through the 70s and 80s. They set a goal, saved, and made it happen.
Cruzer,
“I just *personally* feel like having a balanced govt budget should take a backseat to potential widespread poverty and homelessness, which will negatively impact the economy anyway.”
I appreciate your viewpoint. I agree with you but I think you’re missing the point we are talking about here and the effect it MAY have in relationship to our favorite place Walt Disney World.
For over 22 years as a volunteer I have been holding food drives, fund raisers, picking up the food, packing the bags and handing them while also serving on the board of our local ecumenical food pantry. I have also spent those years with Habitat for Humanity and at one time at our local animal shelter. I set aside my dream job to work part time with social services in what was once listed as the ninth deadliest city in the USA. We’re helping train people on welfare and getting, them into life changing jobs.
I know the poor you speak of. I break bread, work and am friends with them. I assure you the poor are not reading any Disney blogs.
So to your main point, I don’t care what happened under any previous administration. I don’t drive forward looking in my rear view mirror. The national debt has gone up for decades under many admins and both parties. I don’t remember the last time we had a balanced budget nationally or in NY.
The latest stimulus package hasn’t even passed yet so it has nothing to do with the rising gas prices. They are going up because they are making some regrettable policies which I fear MAY lead to such tough times that not even the middle class will be able to go to WDW. In the past WDW has employed as many as 77 thousand people. I think there’s a possibility that we may see a time when not enough people can go to sustain such an operation. What then? It won’t shut down all at once. It’ll be this or that park closed on Monday. Then Mondays thru Wednesdays. Evenings only Friday and Sat. When the World changes the WORLD changes. But let’s hope I’m wrong. I plan to be there for the 50th and hope to move to Orlando and spend many of my last healthy years in the glow of Magic Kingdom fireworks.
If it matters, the last time the country had a surplus was in the early to mid-90s under Clinton (well with my lifetime, I’m an old Millennial lol).
My point connected to the original post was that upward mobility has crumbled, and people whose might have been able to take vacations like this a year ago most certainly can’t today. I would hazard a guess that those numbers are much higher than those who thrived during the pandemic.
Some of the items that people claim are pork could really go either way–money to local goverments could be used to hire more people to support state unemployment offices, or they could be thrown at struggling government pensions. People have to keep a close eye on how their local official use that money.
I do appreciate all of the thoughtful and respectful responses!
Hey Cruzer, I totally agree that we really have no idea about the extent of financial fallout to families and small businesses from the last year. I know it’s not good! And you’re right, many, many people and families are in less of a position to spend discretionary (I hate the term ‘disposable’ as applied here) income for what many would call a frivolous expenditure than they were a year ago. If I had the wealth of Bezos, Gates, Musk, I’d likely have a foundation set up to send families to WDW. But alas, I do not.
The so-called balanced budget in the mid 90s was a total farce. It was only achieved by accounting trickery, wantonly slashing budgets. This caused much more spending just a few years later to repair the damage, including all war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan since then, and is directly responsible for the deaths resulting therefrom. But that’s getting too political, so I will leave it at that.
As for the local governments and pensions, they were failing before this happened and this is not a reason to bail them out with a gift from the rest of us. If we are going to help them now, it absolutely needs to be a loan they will repay. Not free money from my pocket! Poor policy and mismanagement need to be solved locally.
I am concerned about the airlines in the short and long term. Not because I own any stock or anything, but because I like cheap airfare and more so because the supply chain serving air travel is even bigger than the auto industry, and millions and millions of people are employed thusly. Rising fuel costs will translate directly to higher airfare, meaning less middle class family travel to WDW or anywhere. They’ve been moving more freight where possible with reduced cabin occupancy, and I think they were doing that before with the idiotic baggage fees over the last few years. My cousin is taking early retirement from United as they pare down operations. The debt load for smaller airlines like Allegiant, who bought all new planes just a couple years ago, must be incredible. We’re talking about the manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, obviously, but the the airline personnel, airport personnel, TSA, Uber, taxis, catering, airport vendors, mechanics, fuelers, parts vendors, construction contractors, etc.
The supply chain supporting WDW and other parks is similarly huge.
Hi Cruzer,
“Old Millennial” – y.2 – My youngest is your age.
I’m an old hippie – “baby boomer”.
The U.S. government has run a multibillion-dollar deficit almost every year in modern history.
In fact, the government has recorded budget surpluses in only five years since 1969. 1969 itself, then three under President Bill Clinton 98-2000 and one passed on to Pres Bush 2001. I actually did remember that, which is why I wrote it’s been decades. That’s 5 times in 52 years! Not good. Which is why I took literary license and wrote I can’t remember the last time for dramatic effect.
My point, which I know you understand and agree with, was exactly what you said in your last post. A crumbling middle class that will affect everything but in this case specifically WDW. We are in agreement. The rising budget deficit is bad, taxes will be raised, but it will be more of a serious problem for your children. A good friend of mine who is much smarter with/about money told me yesterday that the next two years will be good because of all the money the gov’t is giving out and will do again. Right now bad decisions are driving us into a situation that MIGHT bring inflation by 2023 and God forbid a depression. The signs are around us. Gas prices are one of them. I for one will never be able to afford to sit on a balcony overseeing the Savannah but if the time comes that the middle class can’t afford going it will mean there are much bigger and more serious problems in the world. I know all of us here agree on that too. For today let’s enjoy Disney where there are no bad views not even those overlooking the parking lot.
“When that’ll start to occur is impossible to predict, but I’d be feeling pretty good about an early to mid September 2021 vacation to Walt Disney World right about now…”
We are going mid September and avoiding crowds is always a priority for me, so if I am interpreting this correctly, this sentence is music to my ears.
Thanks for the time you put into all these articles, they really are some of the best that can be found.
My thoughts exactly!!!
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise significantly come Summer 2021, or will people hold off until October 2021? Do you think they’ll be worse than normal due to pent-up demand or below average due to the economy and/or other factors?
I just read Ratatouille and see my thoughts there you kind of cover here. To your questions. Yes the crowds will rise significantly in summer and they will continue to rise through Oct. for the 50th. They will be worse due to pent up demand and the economy will not come into play, if it does at all, till 2022.
As i stated elsewhere I believer herd immunity will be achieved and covid behind us end of April/May. I’m not talking masks gone forever and people kissing strangers in the street like Armistice day but here in America travel and life will be flourishing by end of June.
Disney’s upcoming problem will be that there are too many people with not enough to do, not enough places to spread out the crowds resulting in such terrible word of mouth that it becomes a PR nightmare. Hopefully they will recognize the returning normalcy and get those shows up and running.
Good times are very near at hand. Either way you will be busy Tom and we’ll have lots to read.
Do you think Universal Orlando’s actions in the summer could have any impact on what Disney World does? For example, if Universal Orlando decides to lift all capacity restrictions or mask mandates in July, would Disney follow suit?
To the extent that there’s an underlying real world justification–CDC guidance or ample vaccine availability–yes. As has been the case throughout this, Universal will probably move on it first, though.
I would not expect Universal to arbitrarily make a rule change and then Disney to follow suit. Neither the first nor second half of that will happen.
Universal has a major new attraction opening in June..
Disney is signalling not to expect anything new until October..
Universal has already brought back night entertainment.. Disney…
So there is reason to believe Disney doesn’t care if they lag way way behind Universal.
There are those of us who can travel “whenever” but then those that are limited by school schedules.
It’s hard to predict the degree to which “summer revenge travel” will compensate for “reduced international and convention travel.” But I suspect it will weigh in favor of low summer crowds overall… my evidence:
– Disney knows the summer hotel bookings, but they still haven’t further advanced hotel opening schedules. It’s already March, people are making their June/July bookings. Yet, no opening date for Animal Kingdom Lodge or Boardwalk, no re-opening for half the value properties and half the mods. This suggests Disney KNOWS summer crowds will be low.
-Anecdotally, it seems to me that South American guests make up a good proportion of Disney summer guests (especially since it’s cold in South America in June-August). So summer can be especially impacted by lack of International guests.
-For Disney “regulars”… people will put off their pilgrimage for the 50th Anniversary. The lack of anything new over the summer… with the announcement of the Rat opening on October 1st, reinforces the message to people to “wait.”
So I’m expected fall to be heavier than a normal fall…. Summer to be even lighter than a normal summer. And absolute craziness in Thanksgiving and Christmas when you have kids off from school. Crazier than the normal craziness.
I more or less agree with this, but I’d stop well short of predicting “Summer to be even lighter than a normal summer.”
The problem with this is that we don’t know what park/ride capacity will look like this summer. In raw numbers, you might be right, but it may not feel like it.
Agreed… the “feels like”… it may feel more crowded than a normal summer.
Though here is where the “feels like” could be less crowded: Despite the signs they won’t push “new stuff” until October, I would expect the “old stuff” to normalize more between July and September… so by late summer, at least, you may be getting much closer to normal capacity operations. Maybe.
There’s also a very real possibility that by sometime in summer, capacity is back at or near 100%. Obviously that means more people can enter the parks, but I think that’s the wrong emphasis–save for select days and weeks, the limited attraction capacity is a far bigger deal than the park capacity.
Stated differently, if we’re at ~75% attraction capacity by August but park demand is only pushing 50%, that’s still a net win for those “feels like” crowds.
Agreed….
Late summer may be a big win for “feels like”… though early summer could struggle:
They will be increasing attraction capacity as we head towards October 1st. They aren’t going to flick a switch on October 1st. So by August/September, we should see attraction capacity increasing a good rate.
Though I’m disheartened by Chapek’s statements yesterday, as he talked about still “looking” at the “future” of entertainment for “social distancing” etc. By June, every entertainment cast member at WDW should be vaccinated — there *should* be no reason to require the entertainment cast to socially distance from each other.
If I could read Chapek’s mind, I fear the real statement was, “entertainment costs money, we are in no rush to bring it back… and when we do bring it back, it will be reduced, smaller shows, smaller casts… and I’ll blame those reductions on social distancing.”
If you were going to launch “socially distanced entertainment” — the time for that was now, not over the summer when the need for social distancing should be winding down.
Hearing that part about September travel got me excited. I hope sooner for the sake of so many others that have been planning a big trip for this summer. I know there are no guarantees, but it’s nice to have a reasonable amount of optimism when you’ve spent the last three years planning and saving. Thanks for your thoughts!
Until WDW comes out with some Florida Resident APs, I won’t have any trips this fall. My Weekday AP expires at the end of our May trip for F&G. But if I have to buy individual tickets for three trips in the fall, I’ll just cancel those trips and bank the points until Sept 2022. Dining Plan, FP+, extra magic hours don’t bother me since I will rarely use them. But park admission does.
Are they not allowing even renewals of existing APs now? They were allowing renewals, just not selling new passes.
Hi, DebC.
If I understand your situation, current AP holders can renew their APs starting 60 days prior to their expiration. If you want to renew your APs early so that you can make park pass reservations now for the 50th anniversary, you can call the AP ticket office and ask for an AP “renewal certificate”. This is essentially an AP placeholder that becomes active on the expiration date of your current AP, and allows you to make fall park reservations earlier than the 60 days before your current AP expiration. You will have to pay for the AP renewal now, and I don’t remember if you get the renewal discount, but it will solve your problem if I’m understanding it. Because of the post-reopening extension of my APs, I was in a similar situation and unable to make Park reservations for the October 1 anniversary before I feared they would be depleted (and was right). I got the renewal certificate and was able to make park reservations for the 50th anniversary about two months before I would have been able to if I had had to wait until 60 days prior to expiration. Hope this helps you or other AP holders.