Pent-Up Demand at Disney World: Scorching Summer or Full Fall?
For years, this site has focused on the intersection of attendance and discounts at Walt Disney World. It’s fun to compare deals and discuss when crowd patterns might necessitate special offers to incentivize visits. (We take pride in our historical predictions and rumors of Free Dining drop day, although that now feels like the ancient past!)
Long term predictions have been another story, with our track record being spottier. Last March shortly after the parks closed, we addressed the question of whether Walt Disney World would offer aggressive discounts after reopening. While there have been some strong targeted deals–like over half off hotels–those haven’t been available to the general public. I’d say we got that one wrong.
Later in the year, we discussed “Revenge Travel” at Walt Disney World in 2021. You’ve probably seen a mention and link to this in another post (or 20). That’s because I think it’s a really fascinating topic that could have significant implications for crowds, attendance, and pricing at Walt Disney World later this year. I’ll admit that I was first skeptical of the supposed phenomenon, but that is no longer the case, whatsoever…
One of the finance experts I read recently remarked that “this summer’s overpriced hotels, flights and Airbnb’s will be brought to you by Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Moderna. (I cannot wait to overpay for a vacation).” In a March investor note, Morgan Stanley put an even finer point on it, saying “the recession is effectively over.”
This got me thinking, and wanting to revisit the topic of pent-up travel demand as it relates to Walt Disney World.
One year ago, we were seeing the stock market dive, businesses close, and unemployment numbers soar by record weekly numbers. It looked like we were entering a recession or worse, and the future seemed bleak.
In countless ways, I still cannot believe how the past year has unfolded. One of those is how the United States economy has roared back to life, with growth set to defy even the most optimistic expectations. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP growth by as much as 10% for the first quarter of 2021. On a household level, personal income jumped by 10% to start the year, which is a record.
The personal savings rate has also surged by over 20% to start 2021, and has been high throughout the last year as many Americans have been stuck at home and saving money in the process. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, Americans had a record $3.9 trillion in savings as of this January, which is up from $1.38 trillion in February of last year. That already high number continues to grow!
Then there’s the forthcoming $1.9 trillion stimulus. The headline grabber with this is the $1,400 checks, but that’s only part of the story. The average middle class family of 4 will receive roughly $12,000 in benefit between the direct payments and more generous child tax credit. As the Washington Post illustrates, some individuals and families will receive much more in cumulative aid.
These bills aren’t perfect–no legislation is. There are legitimate fears of inflation. Some households and small businesses will receive an unneeded windfall, others won’t get all of the help they need. The same goes for the recession itself, which has created winners and losers.
Frankly, it’s very difficult for me to wrap my head around some of this while sitting in Central Florida and seeing firsthand how the hospitality industry has been ravaged over the last year. Right now, things are not looking so rosy here. This commentary is not to diminish any of the real pain people are suffering while facing still sky-high levels of unemployment and economic setbacks. All of that is a bit beyond the scope of this post, however.
The practical reality is that even as many people are struggling, many have saved money in the last year–and are poised to receive even more soon. Unlike some past stimulus packages that have disproportionately favored big businesses, the main beneficiaries of this will be the middle class families, which is Walt Disney World’s core demographic.
This alone would seem to answer the question of whether Walt Disney World is going to see skyrocketing attendance thanks to pent-up demand in Summer 2021 and beyond. But there’s more to it than that…
I don’t doubt for a second that the travel and tourism sector as a whole is going to surge this summer. We’ve already heard numerous reports of all-inclusive resorts being totally sold out for the second half of 2021 and seen firsthand the popularity of bookings in beach cities. However, Walt Disney World has its own unique wrinkles.
There’s a dramatically reduced slate of shows and entertainment, nighttime spectaculars are still on hiatus, reduced restaurant lineup, scaled back menus, and temporary suspension of many offerings—like FastPass+ and the Disney Dining Plan—that many Walt Disney World fans have come to love. In a nutshell, the normal experience is compromised. By and large, that’s not the case at other popular vacation destinations.
At Walt Disney World, there’s also the divisive temporary health safety protocol. For months, I’ve been bullish about Walt Disney World’s timeline for relaxing physical distancing and face mask rules. Not to the degree some of you would like to hear, but more than other commentators or timelines from public health officials. Even as Walt Disney World has enacted some stricter rules for the near-term, I stand by all of those predictions.
Physical distancing and attendance caps are Walt Disney World’s biggest impediment to profitability–the parks are not profitable at 35% of capacity, they’re just losing less money than they would if closed. Disney will want to drop these protocol and rules as soon as practical. (That’ll likely be later than most businesses as Disney needs to err on the side of caution and its reputation for safety.)
We’re already seeing some states ditch their rules, and more will undoubtedly follow suit if the early-movers are “vindicated” by numbers that continue to decline. Based solely on seasonality, current trajectory, and vaccination rates, that seems likely. Moreover, public tolerance of face masks, especially once vaccines are widely available, is going to plummet.
Being fully vaccinated is effectively the end of this for most people, and they’ll want to behave accordingly. No matter how people might feel about masks right now, the vast majority won’t want to continue having to wear them long after they’ve been vaccinated, especially on vacation.
Not to go off on too much of a tangent, but after months of “massaging” the message, telling people what they thought they needed to hear, or flat-out obfuscating, I was heartened by the CDC’s new guidelines for fully vaccinated individuals. There’s still a long way to go, but this is a big step that reflects a shift in messaging and better balance, which is necessary if the CDC wants its advice to remain relevant to real world behavior.
In pertinent part, the CDC said that “if grandparents have been vaccinated, they can visit their daughter and her family, even if they have not been vaccinated so long as the daughter and her family are not at risk for severe disease.” My from perspective, it also could be a precursor to how the CDC will handle bigger picture guidance given that most kids likely will not be vaccinated in 2021. It’s still a ways off, but it’s easy to extrapolate from that quote. Again, very relevant to Walt Disney World’s face mask and physical distancing rules given its core demographics.
With all of that said, there’s also the reality that many potential Walt Disney World guests won’t start booking trips until there’s more clarity about the aforementioned limitations, cutbacks, etc. Beyond the return of Festival of the Lion King, Walt Disney World has said very little about what guests can expect to be back this summer. No offense to that show, but it’s not going to cut it in terms of luring a large number of visitors.
Those stimulus checks will likely go out within the next week, and many will be spent immediately on summer vacations. It’s difficult to fathom Walt Disney World announcing the return of entertainment, debut of new attractions, restoration of popular perks & amenities, reopening of more hotels, and relaxation of rules in that time.
Quite simply, many will assess the situation in the next few weeks, and book summer travel elsewhere. As we’ve said before, think of Walt Disney World like an ocean liner: you turn the wheel slowly, and the big ship pivots gradually. Everything takes time from decision to implementation, and it’s premature to make most of these decisions right now.
Walt Disney World is undoubtedly cognizant of vacation booking timelines, and has already decided to look past summer and towards fall. (The just-announced opening date of Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure reinforces this notion.) That won’t stop Walt Disney World from making a concerted marketing push and scoring some summer bookings. However, advertisements alone aren’t going to be enough for a scorching summer at Walt Disney World.
Then there’s youth events, international visitors, and conventions. These have been significant growth areas for Walt Disney World in the last decade, to the point that several venues–like Gran Destino Tower and expansions to the ESPN Wide World of Sports–were purpose-built for them and multiple hotels are dependent upon them.
While I suspect a portion of this business is gone forever and will never fully recover, that’s another topic for another day. At the very least, this is all going to be much slower to return than domestic leisure travel and most of it won’t be back before 2022.
This puts Walt Disney World in an interesting and somewhat unique position. At some point later this year, there will likely be more demand than normal from American tourists, but overall resort bookings might still be softer than normal.
How Walt Disney World will handle this is anyone’s guess. They might keep some hotels shuttered until 2022 to constrain supply and keep prices high. They might accelerate plans to reopen the Port Orleans and All Star Resorts, and use more aggressive discounts to fill the rooms that are inevitably unsold. (Some room categories are already selling out for October and beyond, so my guess would be the latter.)
On the plus side, we’d anticipate there continuing to be opportunities to score deals on hotels at Walt Disney World between now and September 2021 as Walt Disney World continues to fall well short of its past occupancy levels through Summer 2021. Conversely, crowds are likely to increase as more people get vaccinated and are comfortable traveling, at least so long as that capacity cap is in place. (Summer “feels like” crowds are thus entirely dependent upon when physical distancing rules are relaxed and attraction capacity is restored.)
At some point late this summer or in early fall, there will almost certainly be a “sweet spot” where most people are holding off on vacations until the start of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary and when attendance caps are lifted, offerings are reinstated and/or expanded, and soft openings of new stuff begin. When that’ll start to occur is impossible to predict, but I’d be feeling pretty good about an early to mid September 2021 vacation to Walt Disney World right about now…
Ultimately, it’s difficult to predict with certainty how “revenge travel” will play out at Walt Disney World. However, it’s almost certainly a matter of when–not if–at this point. As we’re starting to see with spring break dates, demand is already exceeding supply–but that’s when attendance is capped at an unsustainable 35% and only a portion of the hotels and restaurants are open.
Walt Disney World could capitalize on what is sure to be a busy and lucrative summer for the tourism industry. Given the vaccine timeline, Walt Disney World’s conservative approach to the phased reopening, and lag time between bookings and travel dates, that seems unlikely. Unless something changes dramatically in the very near future, the most plausible scenario is that Disney uses the summer to scale up, setting the stage for the 50th Anniversary and what should be a big holiday season building into an even bigger 2022.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise significantly come Summer 2021, or will people hold off until October 2021? Do you think they’ll be worse than normal due to pent-up demand or below average due to the economy and/or other factors? Planning any “revenge travel” of your own? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We are headed Sept 11th for a week and we are hopeful that there won’t be to many people there due to school having started back up and miss the masses of people for the 50th.
I have a trip planned for April 2022. I’m fully vaccinated, but I wanted to wait until my daughter is. She’ll be 12, so my fingers are crossed that she’ll be done by then. I don’t mind masks, but I really hope the dining plan and fast passes are restored by then. Especially the fast passes!
If she gets vaccinated before that and if fast passes are restored, I’d be thrilled to move the date up…
Booked for the former Pop Warner week. I’m betting on most everything being back by the 50th anniversary beginning Oct. 1. We’ll see if I lose my bet.
We have a week planned for May. All adults in our group will have been fully vaccinated, and two kids coming as well. We have no problem wearing masks. I am a little sad that we won’t have all the normal “perks” of our usual Disney trips (the night shows, parades, character dining), however – we will likely come back in 2022 or 2023 and be ready for those things. We canceled our trip twice last year, and really have been very conservative with staying home, not going out much, etc. Even though we won’t get all the normal things we love at Disney, the deals with flights and hotels and the tickets we already paid for a year ago, it will be a good “mental health” vacation for us.
As much as I’d like to do a week, I’d much rather wait and get the full experience for my buck, or at least as much as WDW’s powers that be will bring back.
Hard pass for 2021. Might do 2022, if only for the WDW anniversary celebration, though it may only be a day or two piggy backed onto a (postponed from 2019) Universal trip.
I’m planning a trip for the end of September for Horror Nights and originally we were going to include WDW as well. However, we’ve decided to just do Universal and come back next year when, hopefully, WDW is back to normal.
Agree with you Tom. We were scheduled to go for August 2020, then moved to April 2021 and now we are doing only two days in Disney and five nights at Universal. (We had old park passes) Universal is half the price and includes everything. Yes, Disney is always more but it’s hard to justify spending that kind of money and not have all the magic. We will schedule for 2022 and hopefully more is back to normal FP and DD.
If vaccinations go as planned with shots available for everyone who wants one in the next 45-60 days, CDC relaxing guidelines when you are fully vaccinated and huge checks coming. I would bet that Disney sets attendance records starting in July through end of year.
Agreed Larry. And once again WDW is ahead of the economic train. Going to reap rewards even though behind universal and not opening new attractions. It’s crazy.
Appears a lot of tone deafness here. Pandemic is far from over but clear most folks don’t care about what’s going on around them. Enjoy your precious Disney vacation.
Disney world has been open since July. Please provide a single example of this causing a covid outbreak. Until then, enjoy your basement.
I thought Tom’s analysis is solid. I live in a state that took the pandemic very seriously but now some restrictions are being lifted but masks and distancing still required. I get the sense that at this point, a year later after lockdowns etc. people are demanding normalcy. People are less concerned especially with the vaccine rollout and there is a great demand for them. Light at the end of the tunnel.
Yeah I see where you are coming from. There is some light at the end of the tunnel but some people are stuck in tunnel vision thinking a vaccine will end the pandemic. Lots of more work to go before a Disney World vacation resembles pre-2020.
The question then is why are people paying full price for a half baked experience? Universal is making Disney look absolutely stupid.
I will give you one data point. I was supposed to go with my family in April 2020 but now am planning on April 2022, hopefully when everything is open with little to no mask rules.
I plan on making it rain if I’m in a position to. Disney VIP guides, the works.
Tom, as a travel agent who has been having many conversations the past few weeks with people looking to book, I think you’re pretty spot on. Of course this is just one very VERY small sample size of everyone traveling, but everyone except the super die-hard fans (who frankly will be going multiple times a year anyway) is looking at October and beyond. The majority of trips I’ve booked are for February/March 2022 – people want to know more things will be open and be further away from the pandemic and take advantage of cooler weather.
My husband and I have our tenth anniversary beginning of September and had originally been eyeing up Aulani. We’ve decided to push it back a year for the same reason why many people will wait a little longer to book Disney – we don’t know if everything will be back and it will be more of a “once in a lifetime” experience for us (or at least once every 5-10 years experience most likely). So we booked WDW that week instead since it’s a place we know we’ll be back.
We are eager to travel again and booked a trip in June. Wanted to stay at Bay Lake or Beach Club villas (it’s all about a washer/dryer for us!) but those rooms were all booked up during our stay. We’re currently booked at the Contemporary, in the Garden Wing.
On Disney’s thinking re: safety measures, crowd size, and room rates–soon after booking, we got a very detailed Disney survey about visiting In June. It focused on how important the current safety measures were our decision to visit then (including specific questions about what mattered most- temperature screenings, increased cleanings, and crowd size). It also asked about the room special running for that time– would we have visited without it? Did the discount incentivize us to travel, or to stay longer, or stay in an upgraded room? I think they are really trying to figure out how to proceed in ramping up the parks without scaring people away.
I’ve had a few friends travel to Disney recently and they have been warning about increased crowd levels and long ride waits (particularly long waits with kids in tow). If times keep going up, and they don’t bring back FastPass, I’m considering rebooking for later.
Tom, thank you for your insight. We are part of the group that wants to travel before the rush. We are heading to Disney World the first week of May. We have teenagers so they are not interested in parades or character meet and greets. My husband is not a huge fan of fireworks (20 years active duty Marine) so these are all bonuses to me. We purchased round trip flights on southwest from LAX for $116.00 each. Staying at the swan for 7 nights with my Marriott points (with reduced point exchange) and discounted salute to service tickets. We just could not pass up the deals. We just want to ride rides, eat, and hang out at the pool.
We are doing something similar. Going to universal at the end of April. Husband and I will be fully vaccinated. Daughter will still be in virtual asynchronous school so she can do her work and not be absent. Flights were less than $100 RT pp. Premier Express Pass hotel was $200/nt. Annual passes are good for 15 months. After a year of happily following the rules, this is an acceptable risk for us. It’s a great deal, and I don’t think it’ll be that way much longer.
I am one who hasn’t spent any of the stimulus money and eventually with the one just passed, it will pay for my next family vacation at WDW. However, until I know I’m getting full value for my dollar there, it ain’t happening. Plans were to go Nov 2020, that was pushed to Nov 2021 but since we’re waiting this long already, if I’m not getting full value, we can wait a little bit longer. We may even cut it short and do a couple days at Universal before heading home.
One of your stated favourite weeks of the year for attending is the week after Thanksgiving, which we have now booked (as well as the week after) from the UK. It’s usually moderate crowds then I believe. D’you think that’ll still be the case this year? Looking forward to it regardless of course!
Hard to say at this point.
It’s still the week I’d pick (or the following one now that Pop Warner is gone) of the holiday season, but the entire stretch between Thanksgiving and NYE could be busier.
Canceling Dumbo, Peter Pan and Aristocrats isn’t going to help Disney much either. Between Disney’s face mask orders, subpar experience due to lack of entertainment etc., and their continued participation in cancel culture, many families are turning their backs.
Quite so! I just saw that Iger reaffirmed his leaving at the end of the year. Will be interesting to see where the company goes from there. He’s made some great decisions, and some not so great. Much like Michael Eisner, many fans ignorantly despise him without understanding the history of what actually happened. Certainly no knowledge of contracts!
Agreed. I don’t understand why everybody is so pent up that they are willing to spend $$$$ before Disney is back to normal. I am not going to Disney World or Disneyland until every restriction is removed, every show and parade back, every last garbage can returned to its rightful place. If you are within driving distance, I can see putting up with all the disadvantages and just enjoy what little there is of Disney for a few days. But for others, where a Disney trip is taking a huge bite out of their savings account, the trip has better be guaranteed to worth it.
Disney didn’t “cancel” those movies, they moved them out of children-only accounts, and for good reason. Those movies have parts (specifically, songs) that are pretty racist. Most parents want to plop their kid down in front of a TV to take a moment to themselves, not spend an hour explaing why to their 4 year old kid why they can’t sing “What Makes the Red Man Red?” or “Shanghai, Honk Kong, egg foo yung. Fortune cookie always wrong!” in public.
No one cancelled anything. Disney made this decision to anticipate the needs of parents. If parents don’t care, they can always just make an adult account for their kid, problem solved.
They aren’t racist. Maybe on some level inappropriate, but not racist.
Cruzer, we don’t need Disney’s help when it comes to parenting or deciding what movies we will or won’t show our children. They should stay in their lane.
I think I’m the Disney fan in the minority here…we currently have reservations over Thanksgiving due to school schedules and my hatred of Florida summers 🙂 As the capacity increases, if they don’t increase the number of restaurants opened/shows to watch; I feel like I’d rather cancel the trip and put the money we’d spend toward a ski week that same week. I can’t wait to travel and do things again, but I don’t want to be around people. My ideal revenge travel is a spa weekend for 1.
I don’t think you’re in the minority among WDW fans. There are a good number of fans who will hold out until everything is restored. Others are tired, in need of a vacation, and willing to compromise.
It seems fairly evenly split to me. To each their own–I don’t think there’s necessarily a “wrong” approach there.
To clarify my above point – I’m in the minority of hoping crowds don’t increase significantly by November. I don’t care so much about the things missing (ie meet and greets) as much as I care about additional places – not ride lines – who are now traveling (Looking at you Indiana Jones, Ohana, Cape May, all those castle shows etc). And I’d take increased crowds if it means more CMs are hired back.
Predictions, as you said, are tough on this one. The divide you speak of when it comes to “winners and losers” for economic stimulus is so extreme–so many jave become unemployed or fallen below the poverty line, some have weathered the storm, and sime have been saving furiously. It’s hard to know how that will play out.
However, we have a DVC trip booked in early December and even 9 months out, there are almost no studio rooms available at any resort, and many of the more popular resorts have almost zero availability. Flight costs during that time of year to Orlando also happen to be very high.
This personally doesn’t bother us, as our plan is to have a relaxing Disney vacation in our Savanna view AKL room and possibly even skip the parks for mini golf, pool time, Disney Springs time. (If you have not done a leisurely coffee and in-room breakfast while watching the savanna in the morning, I highly recommend). But in general, DVC is going to be a madhouse as people desperately try to use points before they expire.
We rented DVC points in January at BLT. There likely won’t be much available from here on out!
When (if at all) do you think Disney will reinstate FastPasses?
And if so, will it reinstate the FastPass+ for club level guests?
Meaning the ability to buy an extra 3 per day.
There aren’t any club level offerings right now.
We’re have a stay at Coronado in April, which I believe is currently at low occupancy. For September, we booked (for the first time in forever) a 2 bedroom villa at Saratoga Springs, which we are really looking forward to. We had no problem booking the villa, as there were plenty available.
Both are slated to be resort only stays. We go every year, so it doesn’t matter if we go to the parks or not. Frankly, I’ll just be glad to be back in the Disney Bubble, no matter what that defines to.
Most of the families I know are trying to keep their feet above water and not even contemplating a Disney trip. The money they receive from the government will be used to pay down debt. I don’t foresee a very busy summer at Disney because of this and because due to various reasons, family priorities have changed. At least for the middle class.
I’m happy with what’s available at Disney right now, as it suits my needs, one of which is just a huge desire to return to Disney, even without the perks.
Why offer discounts bigger than regular ones (10%-20% peak season, 15%-25% regular season) when only capacity restraints prevent the return of the …
FREE DISNEY DINING PLAN!
I know the DDP is a great deal for some Europeans and maybe others with the package pricing they can get. We did it once but now it looks to me like it’s just a draw for those who are bad at math and planning, or who don’t care and just want to show up and go with the flow.
Before they can offer free dining, they need to open up all the restaurants and staff them. But until they loosen covid restrictions, the kitchens won’t open up to full staffing without social distancing. Right now menus are limited to avoid too many staff in the kitchens.