Pent-Up Demand Fueling Florida Travel
With spring break season nearly over and summer fast approaching, it’s time to return to one of our favorite topics: “Revenge Travel” at Walt Disney World in 2021. This isn’t the first…second…or even third time we’ve broached the subject, which has significant implications for crowds, attendance, and pricing for travel to Orlando later this year.
It’s been a busy few weeks in Central Florida. Universal hit capacity before noon for almost a week straight. Judging by social media, SeaWorld look bonkers. I-Drive is the most packed I’ve seen it in well over a year, with full parking lots in a variety of establishments. We drive past the Flamingo Crossings Town Center hotels daily, and have never seen them this busy.
Over the weekend, we did a stay at a third party on-property hotel, and it was similarly hoppin’. Busy bars and restaurants, people reserving lounge chairs at the pool early in the morning, multiple weddings taking place. Of course, that’s entirely anecdotal, and we’ve been talking about the impact of pent-up travel demand on Walt Disney World for a while now. The difference now is that we’re starting to see data out of Florida and the United States as a whole that supports the predictions.
By most objective measures, travel is starting to return. U.S. airport numbers hit another new high yesterday (March 28, 2021) with over 1.5 million passengers screened, according to daily statistics released by the Transportation Security Administration.
This is nearly three straight weeks of over 1 million travelers per day screened by the TSA, which is still down as compared to two years ago, but up dramatically as compared even the busy Thanksgiving and Christmas seasons. For its part, Orlando International Airport has become the No. 1 airport destination in America.
American Airlines paints an even rosier picture of domestic travel. The carrier reports that first-quarter total available seat miles flown will be down about 40% as compared to the first quarter of 2019, but with most of that weakness occurring earlier in the quarter.
As of March 26, the carrier’s seven-day moving average of net bookings is about 90% of its 2019 level. American Airlines is expecting the strong bookings to continue, and anticipates reactivating most of its aircraft in the second quarter as demand continues to pick up. In recent weeks, the CEOs of Delta, Southwest, and United have all been similarly optimistic, with reports of strong bookings ahead of summer vacation season.
Upon landing in destinations, travelers might also encounter a shortage of rental cars. Last year when travel essentially stopped, the rental car industry sold off more than a half a million cars, about a third of their combined fleets, to generate cash they needed to survive the crisis. Although demand has now returned, rental car companies are unable to rebuild their inventory because of supply chain issues facing the auto industry.
The situation is particularly bad in Florida, with reports indicating that 18 of the state’s 20 largest airports were sold out of cars during the peak of spring break. Going forward, MCO is still sold out of cars for many travel dates–with others having astronomical prices of $100 to $300 per day for a rental.
Weekly United States hotel occupancy also jumped seven percentage points last week as compared to the week prior. Nationwide occupancy was 58.9%, which is still historically low. However, this has the highest level in the country since early March 2020–and a 94% increase year over year.
Moreover, Florida is outperforming the rest of the United States. Of cities in the top 25 markets, Tampa (85.3%) and Miami (80.7%) experienced the highest occupancy levels per STR data. The Florida Keys and Sarasota were two markets that actually surpassed their 2019 levels.
In an interview over the weekend, Marriott’s CEO corroborated this, indicating that their real-time data shows consumer confidence and demand are increasing for travel to leisure destinations (like Florida) despite still being down in many big cities.
This surprise turnaround came after Marriott predicted last year that the financial impact of the pandemic would be on par with 9/11 and the Great Recession. He credited pent-up demand and vaccine distribution for this, as well as a blending of trip purposes, with more people able to work and learn remotely.
Walt Disney World doesn’t release its numbers, but anecdotally, things are looking up for some of the resorts that have reopened. In checking availability, Disney’s Pop Century Resort is sold out for a handful of dates over the next two months. Art of Animation and Caribbean Beach also have limited options during that stretch.
Then there’s All Star Movies, which has been overbooked to the point for spring break that there are widespread reports of guests being upgraded from there to the Grand Floridian. (Seriously–and it’s not just a couple of people. We’ve seen/heard at least a dozen instances of this exact move.)
On that front, another interesting trend is that over the last couple of weeks, pool wait times at Coronado Springs and Caribbean Beach have consistently been between 1 and 2 hours. Other resorts have had similar issues, albeit none (to our knowledge) that bad.
At the other end of the spectrum, Deluxe Resorts still seem pretty quiet. It’s impossible to ascertain occupancy levels just by wandering the grounds, but there’s a reason Grand Floridian is where displaced All Star Movies guests are landing. Same goes for the aggressive targeted discounts, delayed reopenings, and impromptu room overhauls at the Contemporary and Poly. Those aren’t the kind of things that happen when numbers are strong. (The apparent booking disparity between the lower priced hotels and Deluxe Resorts is fascinating on its own, but that’s another topic for another day.)
With all of that said, Walt Disney World wait times do not reflect a pronounced spring break travel spike. Some days and attractions have had numbers on the longer side since reopening, but are not what you’d expect if extrapolating from TSA data. For instance, current crowds are lower than Thanksgiving, Christmas, Presidents Day, and Mardi Gras.
Of course, Walt Disney World is utilizing the Park Pass reservations system, which is one means of manipulating attendance. While those have been fully booked for a number of dates over spring break, we discussed recently why we suspected that Disney was limiting attendance.
The overarching travel trends and what’s happening at Walt Disney World are interesting to us for a couple of reasons. First, as a predictor of where attendance and crowd levels are likely to head. Not that this has been easy since reopening, but it’s becoming even more challenging.
When it comes to U.S. travel, it’s pretty close to a sure thing that this will be a blockbuster summer on par with two years ago. There’s a lot of pent-up demand to be exhausted, and that’ll likely result in a very busy vacation season for Florida as a whole.
With Walt Disney World, there are many more considerations. How will the parks handle their self-imposed attendance caps going forward? Will attractions increase capacity? Will health safety rules change? What entertainment and other offerings will return? Will there be a lull as fans postpone trips until after the start of the World’s Most Magical Celebration on October 1?
I’m inclined to predict that we’ve already seen the last of truly low crowds for the year at Walt Disney World. Summer will probably track with other destinations in Florida, albeit to a lesser degree depending upon how some of the above questions are answered. Things slowing down to some degree in late August and September before picking right back up in October also seems plausible, if not probable.
Intertwined with this is what substantive and policy changes Walt Disney World is likely to make in response to demand and evolving guest expectations and preferences. As you’ve probably gleaned by how frequently the topic comes up, this is very interesting to me. It’s something we’ve discussed at length in our Quarantine Rules for Disney Travelers and “Temporary Abnormal” Guide to Walt Disney World, among other posts.
In a nutshell, our view is that things will start returning to normal at Walt Disney World sooner than many fans anticipate–certainly before 2022. This will be driven by a combination of consumer sentiment and the reality that the current health safety protocol are the biggest obstacles between Walt Disney World and profitability.
As is borne out by spring break travel trends, Americans are tired of restrictions and are beginning a return to normalcy. This is despite public health guidance to the contrary, and the fact that only 15.5% of Americans are fully vaccinated. The CDC Director has conceded that their team’s messaging to stay the course just a little longer is largely being ignored by a “fatigued public.”
This is what’s already occurring right now. It’s a trend that’s only going to accelerate as summer draws nearer and more people are vaccinated. A large segment of the population has already returned to life as normal. For another large segment, being fully vaccinated will effectively be the end of this, and they’ll want to behave accordingly.
Sometime in or around May 2021, the United States is going to reach a point where the vast majority of people are exhausted and over this. It won’t matter what the CDC or anyone else says–things will go back to normal when that’s the consensus view of the general public. We’re not expressing any value judgment about that; it’s just increasingly clear that will be the case given what’s already happening.
In past posts, several readers have pointed out that one thing we’re overlooking when discussing Walt Disney World’s return to normalcy is that the pediatric vaccine won’t be approved and available until the first quarter of 2022. We’re not overlooking this at all, we simply think it won’t be the basis for Disney’s decisions.
Others have pointed out that families with small children are an important demographic to Walt Disney World, which is true. It’s also true that the company is very protective of its reputation for safety and being family-friendly. These are fair points and ones that’ll weigh heavily on the company’s decision makers.
Our core thesis is essentially that Disney’s policies will be (and have been) as much business decisions as about health safety. Divisive as they might’ve been, implementing these rules last summer was an easier decision when public opinion was more closely split. Going forward, that’s unlikely to remain true.
There’s a grace period during which fully vaccinated people will tolerate certain rules while the rest of the population catches up. That will not last through this summer, let alone into 2022. In the not too distant future, there’s a point when the protocol will cost Disney too much lost revenue to be the only major vacation destination in the United States to have policies few embrace.
Quite simply, it is untenable for Walt Disney World to be the lone holdout with mandatory health safety protocol in place. People will simply vacation elsewhere. (This is already starting to play out with beaches seeing a faster recovery.)
Up until now, the CDC has sort of sidestepped this issue with pediatric vaccines by treating children as largely low-risk; a continuation of that type of guidance would provide Disney and other businesses the type of “cover” needed in relaxing rules. It would also make sense once deaths and hospitalizations crater, which almost certainly will happen even without a pediatric vaccine.
If for some reason the CDC doesn’t issue favorable recommendations, Disney will be faced with a dilemma. We could be wrong about how that’ll be resolved–it wouldn’t be the first time–but that’s our perspective.
Ultimately, to boil all of that rambling down into something succinct, pent-up demand is already fueling a recovery of the travel industry. Florida is seeing a disproportionately high amount of this demand right now, whereas it would appear that Walt Disney World is seeing less demand than other popular spring break destinations in Florida.
Going forward, there are two extremes as possibilities, plus a large swath of middle ground. One extreme is that Walt Disney World anticipates trends and consumer sentiment, and quickly accelerates the pace of its phased reopening to capture more of the pent-up summer travel demand. The alternative is the aforementioned gap widening if Walt Disney World errs on the side of caution or is way behind the general public’s sentiment in returning to normalcy. Our expectation is that a middle ground scenario will be what plays out, but it’ll be interesting to see what actually happens.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Florida recently? What was your experience with the airport, rental cars, hotels, pools, or anything else? Were you surprised by the level of demand or lack thereof? Thoughts on crowds at Walt Disney World v. other destinations? Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise significantly come Summer 2021? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Yacht Club end of April 30% discount Standard View room comes up over $400 per night before taxes. Other deluxe resorts equally ludicrous. How is anyone willing to pay this? I wouldn’t squander money like that if they carried me to the parks and plopped me directly onto the most demanding rides without any wait. Is this because I remember far more reasonable resort prices from years ago? I actually find it somewhat offensive that the rates have climbed to such heights,..
The prices aren’t really offensive, I think, it’s just that Disney hasn’t lowered the prices by a cent. That is, they have the regular increase as if the Pandemic isn’t around. This is true with both the deluxe and the non-deluxe hotels. I mean, the family suites at Art of Animation sometimes list at over $600 a night, same price as Grand Floridian with discount! Disney hasn’t been shy about charging, that’s for sure.
Thanks, May, for answering. I was really hoping more folks would reveal how they get comfortable with such prices. I must be living in the past when having a million dollars meant something. I happen to have amassed over two and yet will never ever be willing to cough up 400 for a bed (and then have to line up for buses on a hot sidewalk). We have stayed nearly everywhere on site during our long history with Disney and so I must simply be out of step. I do cringe when young folks plop down over 5 bucks for a frothy coffee, remembering how that would get you a nice sandwich as well. Get off my lawn! I know it is considered impolite to discuss money details even though that’s often the essence of the discussion on this beloved site. It’s mostly anonymous for everyone but Tom and Sarah so I really am interested in understanding the economic decisions that go into planning Disney vacations. How much of income do folks allot to a yearly vacation? I expect this comment to fade into the oblivion of ‘older comments’ as most of my threads do, being from an older commenter,..
I think the Deluxe Resort prices are mostly absurd, and that’s only paying for a single night at a time during the lowest price seasons at the maximum discount rates available. I don’t know how people justify staying for a full week, especially on top of other expenses.
The good news is that there are ways around that (DVC rental, Hotwire, etc), luxury on-site alternatives that offer much better value for money, and even Universal’s hotels.
I travel with friends, rather than family, and I try to aim the price at around $1000 per person, per week all inclusive. Sadly, that precludes ever staying in a deluxe on cash. Renting DVC points would be a better way to stay at those hotels, but the nature of my friends dropping out last minute makes me unwilling to risk the large upfront, nonrefundable cost.
Tom, thanks for answering. It really would be very interesting if you could start a thread for people to reveal exactly what they pay for their Disney vacations. I doubt you will since it verges suspiciously on bad manners and you are fortunate to come from a region that held manners in high regard. Being a New Yorker I have only one interpersonal speed; blunt. But truly so much energy here goes into finding good prices – the dining plan grail for instance- that I really believe in the interest of understanding the total Disney Tourist experience, you might permit by design an entry for such disclosures of cost in relation to personal economy. And at least it ain’t politics!
Hey, not just older folks! My husband and I are in our mid-30s, and we also remember the Recession Hayday prices. We’ve only ever stayed in Deluxe hotels for a single night, and only with deep discounts. I think the most we ever paid was something like $400 for New Year’s Eve for the Beach Club (because we wanted to party at Epcot and then just stumble back to the room). But we booked it early and saved all year to do it – and at the end of the day, it’s just a bed and shower. Going forward, we are much more into cruising or visiting small beach towns, where it doesn’t cost an arm and a leg.
No, the rack rates are absurdly ridiculous. No hotel room anywhere is worth that. I’ve stayed at WL (best of all first), AKL, BLT, Yacht&Beach, Treehouse Villas, etc but only either with steep military discount or other deal or split between people so it was around $100 per person per night, or if just my brother and I a bit more. We’ve rented DVC points a few times for BLT, OKW, etc. If I won a big Powerball, maybe I wouldn’t care so much but even the rates on Expedia, etc are just horrific for those places. I’d love to stay in the Bungalows over water at the Poly, but… On the other hand I also will never stay at A.S.S. again even for sub-$100 rates because it’s basically a glorified Motel 6. Port Orleans and Pop are really nice and we used to find decent rates there. Haven’t looked lately though.
I would be very interested to read an analysis about the booking rates for values vs deluxe resorts. I would think that with shorter park hours a nicer resort experience would be preferred, also with limited travel, I could see people wanting to “splurge” more, especially those who frequent WDW more often and may be less park driven.
It’s premature for a full-blown article, but my hunch is that it’s largely driven by consumers currently feeling that Deluxe Resorts are not offering commensurate value for money (fewer on-site perks and offerings). That means some people are unwilling to splurge and opt for a cheaper on-site resort and others book at one of the third-party resorts.
Other explanations are also possible, but it’s probably not a matter of people having smaller vacation budgets this year. High level of household savings plus stimulus money for Disney’s target demo undermines that. (As do booking levels at higher end properties outside of Disney.) Will be interesting to watch whether this is a temporary blip or longer term thing.
I, too, would be interested in reading more about booking rates and how Disney markets efforts to lure value vs. moderate vs. deluxe guests to DW. Tom, you mentioned that Disney’s target is receiving stimulus checks. What exactly is DW’s target family income and how much does it vary? What will it take for the Orleans hotels to open? I’m especially ready for the Boardwalk Inn to reopen. I read somewhere that asserted that Disney will be focusing on welcoming “fewer guests,” but that these guests would be “bigger spenders.” Does this jive with what you’re hearing?
“I read somewhere that asserted that Disney will be focusing on welcoming ‘fewer guests,’ but that these guests would be ‘bigger spenders.’ Does this jive with what you’re hearing?”
No. This is said every time Walt Disney World raises prices or attendance is down–that it was all by design and is part of some master plan. I don’t buy it then and I certainly don’t buy it now. Disney’s target audience is firmly the middle/upper middle class, and most of the hotel inventory reflects that. (Guests who would otherwise be booking stays at the Four Seasons are not going to be lured away by Caribbean Beach, as much as I might love the latter.)
Even things that make sense and are plausible–like Disney trying to push more people on-site by disadvantaging off-site guests are plainly contradicted by what the company is actually doing.
The most obvious factor is that the pandemic hit people’s paychecks.
Hi Tom,
So, do you think there is any possibility of them relaxing the mask mandate at all as soon as May 1st? I’m sure they have no intention of lifting it completely that soon, but maybe raising the age, or allowing medical exemptions? I know Florida is set to release some new information regarding mandates on April 1st, I just didn’t know if that would have any effect on Disney’s decision at all.
“So, do you think there is any possibility of them relaxing the mask mandate at all as soon as May 1st?”
No.
I think the absolute earliest Disney officially relaxes anything is Memorial Day. I would expect physical distancing rules to be loosened first, then mask rules. Still think there’s a decent chance mask rules don’t change until around October 1. In large part, it depends upon how quickly public sentiment and health guidance change.
We just returned from a week long trip to WDW. Our group of 8 stayed in the Beach Club Villas with no problems getting into the pool there, but we definitely had trouble getting onto buses with enough capacity especially in the early mornings. We did eventually start catching the am bus at Yacht Club since the buses rounded there first and were maxing capacity before coming over to Beach Club for pick up. The other inconvenience was most restaurants with mobile pick up not having available time slots even hours in advance. The solution ended up being UberEats and DoorDash. Other than food and buses though, we felt the parks themselves were well managed. The adults in our group were all vaccinated prior to this trip, but I understand that’s not everyone’s plan. Most ride wait times were grossly exaggerated and overall it was a much needed mental vacation for all of us. We look forward to a visit in the non-Covid days to come too though! Thanks for all the planning itineraries, they were invaluable!
“Thanks for all the planning itineraries, they were invaluable!”
You’re welcome, and thanks for reporting back!
“We did eventually start catching the am bus at Yacht Club since the buses rounded there first and were maxing capacity before coming over to Beach Club for pick up.” Wow, I didn’t think of that. That is so true, and unfair. Why didn’t Disney send separate buses during busy hours?
We just returned from a week long trip that started on St. Patrick’s Day. One thing my wife and I both noticed were the number of people walking around with their masks under their noses and some walking and drinking with their masks under their chins. When we visited in September, we did not see this. If someone tried to do this, an employee would immediately respond. This time around, we did not see any employee reminding anyone of proper mask etiquette. I am in complete agreement with you, it is going to be very hard for Disney to keep up these safety protocols – especially when the really warm weather hits.
We’re long past the point of most people being done with lockdowns and staying at home in fear. I’d say with increasing reports of strife between guests and CMs at WDW, and all over the nation, it was months ago. Here in San Antonio, we are seeing some places with signs up to wear masks (as is their right on their property) and some places have completely done away with the mask-to-enter policy. Restaurants are a mix. Many say wear a mask for entry but don’t enforce it. Went into a bank, and Wells Fargo is enforcing a mask rule. It varies widely.
I know they try to blame the automakers for a lack of rental cars, but it’s really the rental companies who just don’t want to pay. Drive past any car lot and you’ll see a whole lot of vehicles eagerly waiting to go to their new homes. The vehicles are out there and available but the companies likely won’t do the lowball pricing car rental guys want. So it’s like the Seinfeld episode with the rental car not being there… The supply-side issue for manufacturers can become a real thing, but we aren’t there yet. I’m looking at construction materials price increases right now that are scary, and expect everything else to follow. And I am concerned about airfare prices over the next few years…
It’s hard to fault the rental car companies too much for being overly cautious, especially with so much consolidation and bankruptcy in that sector. (I don’t know enough about the rental car industry to comment intelligently beyond that, but just how many mergers and bankruptcies have occurred suggests to me it’s a tough business.)
Construction material pricing seems to me driven by a perfect storm of bad circumstances, low interest rates, plus expectations of low demand v. high actual demand. Inflation is certainly a possibility (and that seems to be what you’re suggesting), but it’s just as likely that prices will moderate over time–especially if mortgage rates continue to increase, pushing demand down in the process.
+1 for the Seinfeld reference. Also agree with your points about mask enforcement and compliance in the real world starting to fall off. We’re seeing the same thing here.
I currently am sitting at the Beach in Cancun Mexico. My Brother is at Disney staying at the contemporary. I was in Disney 2 months ago while staying at the swan and made the decision not to return till pre covid Disney is back and Mask wearing is over.
I do agree about pent up demand as we own beach rental property in the panhandle of Fla. and this will be the best rental year we have ever experienced and are fully booked till end of September.
People are ready to travel it’s just up to places to open up. Beaches are full in Florida and same here in Mexico. My flight on American to Cancun had 3 open seats.
I think Disney can and will fill every room when they get to precovid times but I am sure there are more people like myself that don’t like the current Disney experience and will wait till later.
Fully agree with you about fully vaccinated people only tolerating this for a little longer before rebelling. My household is fully vaccinated (Moderna) and we’re a month past the 2nd shot, so our immunity should be at the top of the chart. Several times over the past few weeks I’ve had multi-night MK resort reservations selected and in the checkout cart, but just couldn’t bring myself to hit the Submit button… strictly and only because of the mask mandate. We and another family all want to come up, but none of us are willing to walk around masked-up, to make OTHERS feel better. We now the science suggests that fully-vaccinated people pose little to no threat of transmitting the disease to others, so the only reason we’re walking around wearing them is OPTICS. Others get angry if WE are not wearing them. Maybe Disney could give a special wrist band (exempting from masks) if we prove vaccination status? Yeah, probably not.
Agreed! Health theater… Let me know when they start doing the wristbands so I can sell them to folks.
i have absolutely no issue whatsoever continuing to wear a mask for as long as is necessary, even after being vaccinated. we are never going to get past this and will continue taking 2 steps forward and 3 steps back with this kind of mindset.
I’m vaccinated and the thought of wearing a mask in the sunshine to make people who willfully step into a major theme park with me feel safe is ridiculous. Anyone simultaneously saying with a straight face that they are afraid of the scary, dangerous pandemic while strolling into an amusement park to stand in line with hundreds and thousands of other people to ride Peter Pan is showing some serious incongruity in terms of their thinking. The masks and other measures need to go very soon. Time to open up.
Exactly, KenR. No one who is truly concerned about contracting COVID comes to Disney. That would be crazy. As thorough as Disney’s protocols are, there would be no way to reasonably guarantee protection from a virus. I’m enjoying the extra hand sanitizer and I hope mobile ordering stays around, but it’s time for common sense to prevail.
I absolutely agree. This health theatre is getting old. I think masks should be recommended but not required. This change would allow those that are vaccinated to relax mask-free but those who have either not received their vaccine yet or are high risk can still wear it. Disney using the “recommended” verbiage also covers them and keeps the allusion that they are the safe.
Agree with everyone but Laura. Most vaccinated people aren’t going to tolerate masks long and I think trying to distinguish who has had the vaccine from who hasn’t isn’t worth the trouble to Disney or other businesses. We actually had covid over a year ago before the first lockdown and wished there was a way to get a pass on masks then so we are more than ready to say goodbye to them! 😉 Once vaccines are widely available I think Disney will move on from masks and distancing. I’m sure there will be people upset when that happens, but as others have said, if you are going to a huge theme park you can’t really be that worried about covid. You may “feel” safe, but nothing, not even all the safety measures Disney has in place, is 100%. I hope things get back to normal very soon so I don’t have to cancel another trip!!
I meant the first Laura comment about wearing masks even if vaccinated not the last Laura! We must have commented at the same time. 🙂
I think most states are having “vaccine open season” next month, to reach the May 1 target. The problem, I think, is rollout. Even if you’re currently eligible in California, for instance, it is extremely difficult to make an appointment to do so — there is so much proactive-ness required – constantly refreshing websites, knowing all the different places to check, etc. Some eligible folks are driving 1-2 hours away from the major cities just to get their vaccines!
While everyone may be eligible by May 1, I suspect that it will take the whole of summer for everyone to actually get properly vaccinated. If it’s this hard to get an appointment even though only around 15% of people are eligible, I can’t imagine what it will be like when the rest of the general population tries to get one.
One thing to keep in mind with this is that distribution has and will continue to improve. Over the weekend, 3.5 million doses were administered per day–double the daily numbers of a month ago. That’s only going to continue going up.
On top of that, not all sites pose the same barriers. In many states, appointments are difficult to score at pharmacies doing <100 doses per day, but the super sites that can do thousands of shots per day have walk-up availability.
I could totally be wrong, but my guess is that by mid-May, adults in most states will have ample options for vaccinations without jumping through any hoops. Could be totally wrong and underestimating demand, but the U.S. trajectory on vaccinations is really good.
Gee Melody, that sounds like trying to get Fastpass-Minus reservations and/or ROTR boarding groups!
i can say first hand illinois vaccine rollout has been abysmal. for a leader in response to the pandemic a year ago, they are at the bottom of getting shots in arms.
Thanks for the article, Tom. Like several others, we just came back from a trip to WDW, staying at Caribbean Beach March 22-26. We were flying RT from SFO, and our observation was that the airports were relatively less crowded than when we last went (January 2019), but the parks were definitely full of people, with wait times for rides like Peter Pan, Pirates, etc. of up to 90-120 minutes by 11 am each day. Even the “sleeper” rides had long lines. Most people seemed to be making at least a token effort at wearing something approximating a mask, but social distancing was often a joke. Cast members would occasionally remind people, but it was kind of a lost cause. Based on that, I think your predictions are spot on.
Our worst experiences were (no big surprise) the busses. That was a real nightmare every time we had to take them, with waits of over an hour at times. The Skyliner (and the boats) worked well for us, but we were traveling to the parks first thing in the morning, so I don’t know how impacted the Skyliner would have been during end of the day etc.
Based on that experience, the length of the time for airport and 5+ hour each way flight, AND the pent-up demand, we’re not planning to go back to DW for at least 2 or 3 years. We had thought of trying to get to Disneyland in January, since it’s re-opening in April, but based on what we experienced at Disney World, we might just give DL a pass too until some time in late 2022.
We leave Monday for DW. We have 3 littles who require car seats, so we were going to use the buses since Uber isn’t really an option. We are driving to Fl, but didn’t want to drive our car to the parks because we want to be in the parks before posted opening time and my understanding is they are holding cars at parking turn-styles too long to be in the park too much before park open. Are we in for a nightmare with the buses? I’m hoping the 8 AM opening for MK and AK (meaning a 6:45/7:00 bus boarding) will be an early enough deterrent for some of the crowds. Any other suggestions?
Taylor, you should take your car to the parks. I was there last week, they allowed parking about an hour prior to park opening. We took our car everywhere and had no issues getting into the parks early. If you plan to be at the bus an hour early it will be easier to drive.
I really have gotten pretty used to my masks. I don’t find them that bad to wear and since my kids (in their 20’s and 30’s) have not yet been eligible in our state, I think we will keep wearing for a while. Frankly I would rather less hand sanitizer be around as we know a super bug will arise from that use!!
We are going to Orlando towards the end of June. I have always found air fare from Dallas to MCO for $99 each way or less. I can’t find round trip airfare for less than $300. Only 3 of our 15 are flying as the rest of us will drive. The SW sale hasn’t applied to FL for the last few time.
We booked our rental back in January and a quick search on VRBO and ABnB shows only 8 houses available in our resort. I definitely feel like “revenge” travel is happening.
We went to New Smyrna Beach last summer and it is harder to book things this time. Who would have thought? 🙂
Great article! It’ll be very interesting to see how it all plays out. Personally I’m waiting until masks are optional to visit, but I don’t mind being patient. In any case I definitely agree Disney will have some difficult decisions on their hands and it will be fascinating to see how they navigate the rest of the year.
Great article as usual on a fascinating and complicated topic. I agree with just about everything you’re saying here, and your generally positive outlook has helped keep me anchored these last few months when so many stories have been doom and gloom.
The one thing I disagree with is that the CDC recommendations will change soon. I think it’s likelier that states’ mandates change based on public sentiment as you hint at above. The CDC has been chronically behind the times in updating their advice, and I think from a health perspective they either want “herd immunity” (which is impossible without children being vaccinated, if it’s even possible at all) or some other distant point where they can feel safe recommending changes.
I do think that the coming vaccine wave will push the important numbers (hospitalizations and deaths) way down by summer and that public sentiment will the biggest driver of how and when things reopen. As you said, Disney is a business and they are going to base their decisions on what will make them the most money even if their public statements are in the guise of safety.
“The one thing I disagree with is that the CDC recommendations will change soon. I think it’s likelier that states’ mandates change based on public sentiment as you hint at above. The CDC has been chronically behind the times in updating their advice, and I think from a health perspective they either want “herd immunity” (which is impossible without children being vaccinated, if it’s even possible at all) or some other distant point where they can feel safe recommending changes.”
Good and fair point.
The flip side to this is that the CDC has shown a willingness to try to shape public behavior with their guidance. If vaccine demand drops (along with deaths and hospitalization) and they want to incentivize vaccine uptake, we could see things go in a different direction.
I guess we are some of those revenge travel people. DH and I are both fully vaccinated, and our pent-up demand to go do SOMETHING is high. So I booked us a trip to Universal Orlando in late April. DH and I both work remotely, and kiddo is doing virtual school. Figure we will never have this opportunity again (we hope!), and maybe we will be a smidge ahead of the revenge travel curve (famous last words). We will be taking our KN95s and still avoiding eating inside restaurants, but the idea of going and doing makes me so happy.
I love reading your articles. We are from the UK and are due to be coming end of august for a few weeks.
We don’t hear much over here re Florida. I’m not sure when flights are due to resume to Florida either. We are hoping the holiday still goes ahead. Does anyone have any thoughts/Info on UK flights resuming. Thanks
It’s been difficult to get a vaccine appointment here in CT, and I was only able to get an appointment about a month after I was eligible. Eligibility opens up to the next age group in a few days, but with appointments difficult to get, it will be well into summer before a majority get vaccinated. I’m planning to visit beginning of June, about a month when I will have gotten my second shot, but I’ll gladly wear my mask, since it’s common courtesy and since the virus can still be transmitted even after vaccination.
Hi Tom,
Are you getting any sense of whether international travellers will be welcomed back this summer? We are due over from the UK at the end of July for three weeks, and in that limbo currently of standing to lose a lot of money if we cancel, but also keen to come over if it’s safe and the governments on both sides of the pond allow it. Thank you.
I don’t see vaccine passports being relevant almost anywhere else, but I do see them being potentially utilized for an earlier restart of international travel. On that front, it also helps that the US and UK are doing excellent jobs with vaccinations. Plus, there were plans in motion for a travel “bridge” bettween the US & UK last fall before the last surge.
Given all of that, I think summer is a realistic possibility, but that also may be too quickly for the respective governments to iron everything out.
This is the critical statement in your article:
Quite simply, it is untenable for Walt Disney World to be the lone holdout with mandatory health safety protocol in place. People will simply vacation elsewhere. (This is already starting to play out with beaches seeing a faster recovery.)
With no judgment as to whether it’s good or bad, it appears they are preparing to be that lone holdout. They are happy to write-off 2021 in order to enter 2022 50th with a big bang. I also suspect they are taking advantage of this “downtime” for resets of many operations.
I’ll note, CDC is unlikely to give a major green light before September. Fauci just cited a new study that will take 5 months to complete, and he said he would be more comfortable easing mask recommendations after the completion of the study. In Israel where vaccination is over 50% and cases are dwindling, the scientific and medical community is still pushing the necessity of masking and some social distancing. Until kids are widely vaccinated, it seems unlikely CDC will lift masking and social distancing in large gatherings like theme parks.
So come summer… I suspect most vacation destinations in Florida will be fully back in business. But Disney may indeed be among the slower holdouts.
As you correctly pointed out multiple times — WDW can’t turn at the flick of a switch. They turn slowly like a massive ship. So if they were anticipating any sort of normalization, that turn would have to start NOW, or certainly within the next 2-3 weeks.
If they were going to re-open more hotels for summer, you’d expect to hear that NOW. If they were going to bring back any entertainment other than FOTLK, you’d hear about them bringing back the performers NOW.
Restaurant capacity could probably be expanded more quickly, but even that would take weeks to re-open closed restaurants.
Meanwhile, Disney re-opening news has been so quiet that you could hear a pin drop. Universal has been blatantly cutting social distancing, they announced their Halloween parties. The only announcements we have gotten are, “France expansion in OCTOBER”
And “we expect masking and social distancing for the rest of the year”
Basically…. there have been no signs of any intent by Disney to speed up. And maybe that’s why Spring Break crowds as Disney didn’t seem as bad as other places — People are craving NORMAL travel, and WDW is very much slow-walking any return to normal.
I totally see your point.
I absolutely agree. We are headed to Disney the last week of August and are praying for some amount of normalcy. I enjoy reading your blog a lot and I always find myself to be on the same page as you! I hope your predictions come true! 🙂
I am also from Ny and they just released info today that vaccines will be made available to people 16 and above starting April 6. This is huge for our state since our numbers aren’t trending in the right direction at the moment.
“There’s a grace period during which fully vaccinated people will tolerate certain rules while the rest of the population catches up. That will not last through this summer, let alone into 2022.”
That is spot on, Tom. We spent part of spring break at Disneyworld and then spent last weekend in Daytona Beach. Folks are done. Nearly everyone we saw at Disney was still complying with the rules (we only overheard one scolding from a cast member at Epcot to a group of college-age kids drinking and walking), but a frequent topic of conversation was when those rules would change and how this would be the last trip with “mask photos.” In Daytona Beach, most businesses continued to post mask signs on their front door, but we didn’t observe any enforcement and there were many (relentlessly cheerful) folks without them. The best word for the mood down there was “celebratory.”
We just drove down from WI for a week in Fort Wilderness. The drive was full of MN, WI, and MI license plates and many, many slow downs and car accidents. The hotels we stayed at on the way down were turning people away. I’ve seen just a handful of empty campsites here, FW seems to be busy and full of happy people *usually* wearing masks. I’ve never seen so many people renting canoes at the bike barn before! They ran out of t-shirts at the tie-dye station!
Great article as always Tom. I think CDC guidelines will be relaxed shortly (especially since the White House just said today that 90% of American adults will have access to the vaccine by April 19th) and as you mentioned, people are unlikely to undergo another summer/fall season like we did last year. I think Disney will be forced by other vacation destinations if they want people to come back (despite Chapek saying there was plenty of demand even if they lifted the 35% capacity limits and higher guest satisfaction numbers) by restoring all of their incentives in order to compete (Dining Plan, morning hours, FP+, fireworks, shows, etc.)
“I think CDC guidelines will be relaxed shortly…”
That’s my belief as well, but it’s also pretty clear the CDC has deliberately held back on some guidance because they want to shape behavior for just a little longer. I can understand the desire to do that, but it has backfired *so many times* in the last year that it sure seems like they’re playing with fire.
IMO, their messaging should have greater concern for vaccine uptake, and not disincentivizing that. For once, a little foresight would be nice.
I think Tom’s being a little pessimistic, based on the vaccination trends, both in terms of access to vaccines as well as people fully vaccinated. Even if the CDC waits to see the data before adjusting guidelines and Disney waits for the CDC, I think it’s reasonable to expect changes this summer, and definitely before October 1. (It looks like they can expect to sell out the Values and the Moderates as soon as they announce changes, based on this post!)