Why Does Disney Really Use Park Reservations?
Company leaders have spoken extensively about the benefits of park reservations at Walt Disney World and Disneyland, making big claims about the upside for guest experience, managing crowds, balancing demand and attendance throughout the year. (Updated December 17, 2022.)
Let’s start with an update, as a lot has changed in the month-plus. There are several signs that the Disney Park Pass reservation system is on the way out, or will become more of a formality. The dominos started with the firing of CEO Bob Chapek, who had been a champion of park reservations and praised the system on countless occasions. He was replaced by returning CEO Bob Iger, who immediately started calling Chapek’s theme park strategies into question. Iger also said he was “alarmed” by price increases, layoffs, and more at Walt Disney World and Disneyland.
Then came a company-wide Cast Member Town Hall, during which Iger was asked about the future of the Disney Park Pass reservation system. Iger said that he has read about it, and that “not all of it positive.” He added that he needs to discuss the system with Josh D’Amaro who runs the parks business and can provide Iger with better perspective about its purpose. Following that, a previously-announced decision to eliminate reservations for 1-day tickets was implemented.
Now, we’re seeing Walt Disney World starting to open up even more reservation availability for the week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. Due to the timing of both holidays, this will almost certainly be the busiest week of the entire year. (Normally, the lead-up to Christmas would also be busy, but with that falling on a Sunday, it’s likely the following week will see the bulk of the crowds.)
In fact, thanks to a reservation refill, every single park is available December 23-30, 2022. The only unavailable park on New Year’s Eve is EPCOT, and prior to that, it’s mostly just Magic Kingdom and occasionally DHS that are booked up.
The added availability is not an indication that attendance will be low that week. It absolutely will not! Rather, it should be construed as a signal that Walt Disney World is pivoting from its approach to redistribute crowds and normalize attendance among all 4 parks. This is something we’ve explained in the past, but here’s a quick refresher…
Walt Disney World is using park reservations to redistribute attendance by limiting availability at Magic Kingdom–and thus pushing people towards Animal Kingdom and EPCOT to increase the utilization of those parks and normalize numbers across all four parks. This is an instance of the infamous “yield management” being discussed by executives on earnings calls and in interviews. There actually are benefits to this approach, including making for a more pleasant guest experience and easing staffing shortages.
As we’ve previously noted, there are major downsides to this approach for Disney. If someone is traveling to Florida and wants their kids to experience Walt Disney World, they probably will not going to be satisfied if only EPCOT or Animal Kingdom are available. Rather than make reservations to those two parks, some guests will choose not to buy tickets at all and simply not visit Disney if they cannot do Magic Kingdom. For many causal visitors, Magic Kingdom is synonymous with Disney; EPCOT and the rest are not a comparable substitute.
All in all, several signs that the downsides are starting to exceed the upsides of the Disney Park Pass system, coupled with its biggest champion being gone. It’s likely the system will be minimized or dismantled in the coming weeks and months. For now, here’s the supposed reason v. reality of Disney Park Pass and why some at the company support the system…
Prior to all of this (and before he was unceremoniously fired), Chapek was interviewed at a Wall Street Journal tech conference and claimed that park reservations “protect the guest experience so that when you get into the park, you can have confidence it’s not going to be overcrowded.” He contended that Walt Disney World and Disneyland want to “guarantee a great guest experience no matter when people come.”
“In a world where we don’t control demand, we’re left with one of two situations. You either let way too many people into the park, where they don’t have a great experience, or you manage it by turning people away at the gate.” He explained that the reservation system was developed to make things predictable for “families from Seattle” that might have previously visited Disneyland on Thanksgiving at 10 am and been turned away without reservations.
He likened park reservations at Walt Disney World and Disneyland to what other hospitality businesses like hotels and airlines do. (For a company that once touted the “Disney Difference,” comparisons to Delta or Marriott miss the mark for us–even though we like both of those businesses.)
He said although the reservation system is “heresy” to some Disney fans, it’s more important to ensure everyone who is able to enter the park has a magical experience and makes memories that last a lifetime. Chapek also said Disney’s demand-based approach is good for investors and for guests. He steadfastly stuck to the script that would sound familiar to anyone who read our recent post, Disney Doesn’t Want Lower Crowds.
There’s a lot to unpack here. One of the salient points of that post about Disney not wanting lower crowds is: you shouldn’t believe everything Disney tells you. We illustrated that by offering a timeline of quotes from company leadership as contrasted to what was actually happening in the parks. We will spare you a rehashing of all that here.
Instead, we’ll simply say that Disney leadership has repeatedly contended the reservation system is ensuring the parks aren’t too crowded and guaranteeing a great guest experience. Anyone who claims the parks aren’t too crowded right now clearly hasn’t seen how things are going this month. Anyone who thinks the guest experience is going great hasn’t visited in the last year. (If Disney wanted to be transparent about this, they’d release guest satisfaction scores from this summer as compared to last summer!)
Although the claim is facially invalid, it likely holds psychological appeal for many in Disney’s core demographic who are most likely to hear the message. The idea of spending thousands of dollars and traveling from across country to Walt Disney World or Disneyland only to be denied at the gate is terrifying. It’s an effective way of preying on emotions, especially the FUD factor.
And at least to some extent, Chapek is right. There were previously a handful of days per year when Magic Kingdom and Disneyland have had capacity closures. This happens in phases, with certain categories of guests blocked from entering the park for periods of time. To the best of my recollection, neither coast has been subject to a capacity closure for on-site guests since 2015. (If one did occur, it lasted less than a few hours.)
By contrast, I have personally overheard multiple guests (presumably of the hotel, although I didn’t butt in to inquire!) at the front desks of the Grand Californian, Contemporary, and Coronado Springs all pleading their case for reservations when the parks have been fully booked. In multiple instances (including the Grand Californian at a time when rack rates were over $1,000/night), there was nothing the Cast Members could do.
If anecdotal reports on social media are indicative of anything, this occurs on a regular basis. Now, the unsympathetic among you might claim that this is their own fault for not doing the research or ignoring the many warnings about theme park reservations being required. That’s neither here nor there.
My point is that–if the concern is families traveling long distances being shut out of the parks–that’s still happening. The park reservation system doesn’t solve this, it just shifts the risk to different parties. Even when it comes to an appeal to emotion, the park reservation system still causes problems for those out-of-state families Disney claims to care about. In short, that’s not the real reason for reservations. So let’s discuss some of the alternative explanations for park reservations…
Some fans have contended that Disney uses park reservations in order to reduce staffing levels. In theory, this would allow Walt Disney World or Disneyland to schedule shifts, hire fewer Cast Members, or cut hours for existing employees.
There’s even some “evidence” in support of this perspective, which comes via parents of College Program participants and Cast Members who have been scheduled for fewer hours per week. That is difficult to rebut or explain away, except by saying that Walt Disney World scheduling has always been scattershot and inexplicable. For everyone saying they can’t get enough shifts, there are a half-dozen other Cast Members who will tell you their departments are short-staffed and they’re being scheduled for 6 days per week.
As a general matter, I do not believe Walt Disney World is using the park reservations system to reduce staffing. I do believe that there are some Cast Members who aren’t getting as many shifts as they want, and I also believe that such a system could be used for the purpose of “right-sizing” staffing levels at some point. It would not surprise me if exactly that happens in 2023 or beyond.
I just don’t think that’s what is happening here, today, in 2022. For a number of positions, Walt Disney World and Disneyland are both facing acute staffing shortages and have been for over a year. (In some cases–like bus drivers and housekeepers–those actually predate March 2020.)
Disney has had terrible issues with employee turnover and morale. A big part of that problem is caused by the staffing shortages putting a strain on other employees. In that sense, it has become something of a vicious cycle. (We’ve heard several readers complain about employee and guest ‘attitudes’ recently; while beyond the scope of this post, we’ll simply say…you don’t even know the half of it.)
If anything, the case could be made that the reservations system is being used to prevent staffing shortages and turnover from worsening. Higher attendance and congestion leads to greater guest frustration, causing more confrontations between consumers and Cast Members, which results in more morale and turnover troubles. Again, vicious cycle.
The theory that Disney is using the reservations system to slash staffing also doesn’t pass the smell test because, quite simply, it’s not something a rational business would do at this moment in time. Although labor costs have unquestionably increased in the last several years, the expense of employees is far lower than the revenue generated from increasing capacity and accommodating more guests.
That’s almost certainly true even when the mix becomes less favorable thanks to more Annual Passholders. Although APs don’t generate additional ticket revenue with each visit, they do spend money on merchandise and food & beverage. This is especially true at EPCOT, which is essentially the local’s park at Walt Disney World. Purposefully reducing staffing would be a good example of stepping over dollars to pick up pennies. Think what you will of Disney’s current leadership, but they know better than to do that.
This does not mean every single position is understaffed–that’s definitely not the case–but Disney simply is not currently in a position to be cutting Cast Members in order to reduce costs. In fact, it’s the opposite. There are some positions Disney cannot fill, from characters (do you really think the company wants only one meal at Akershus per day?!) to behind-the-scenes roles.
Walt Disney World not having enough Cast Members for certain key roles is one of the reasons why the company continues to lean on the park reservations systems and limit attendance below pre-closure levels. This is actually something Disney executives have conceded in the past.
During the Walt Disney Company’s first two earnings calls of the year, executives indicated that this is exactly what’s happening. During the first quarter call, when asked about attendance caps, he stated that hospitality staffing has been “difficult” with hotels and restaurants having staffing shortages. Specifically, they said that capacity constraints are self-imposed as a form of “mitigation…because people spend a long time in our parks and resorts.”
In other words, the parks and resorts have limited attendance at least in part due to dining capacity. This isn’t the type of thing executives would proactively bring up on an earnings call–leaving money on the table doesn’t exactly make Disney look good–unless it was a significant headwind. There’s thus every reason to take this statement at face value. (Or just look at woes with Advance Dining Reservation availability, which tell pretty much the same story.)
However, I also do not think this is the primary impetus for the park reservation system at this point.
That statement was made earlier in the year, and it was probably true then when pent-up demand was peaking and there were a lot of ‘grey days’ on the Disney Park Pass calendar. For long periods between Presidents’ Day and Easter, every single park ran out of reservations on a near-daily basis. While that has happened from time to time since then, it’s not occuring with the same consistency.
In the last few months, the only parks that are running out of reservations with regularity are Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios. This has been occurring on many days regardless of wait times, with both parks going unavailable on occasion with 5/10 or lower crowd levels.
This suggests to us that Walt Disney World is now using reservations not out of necessity, but to manipulate attendance dynamics on many days. They’re doing this by capping reservations at Magic Kingdom and pushing people towards Animal Kingdom and EPCOT to increase the utilization of those parks and normalize numbers across all four parks. There are a number of benefits to this approach, including making for a more pleasant guest experience, easing burdens on Cast Members, and allocating resources within and across the resort.
Of course, there are downsides and potentially ulterior motives, as well. For example, if EPCOT has higher food & beverage spending–which it almost certainly does–management might have an incentive to funnel guests there. The counter to that is it could backfire–if only EPCOT is available for regular ticket reservations, some guests might choose not to buy tickets at all. It’s a delicate needle to thread. (Consumer behavior is also the ultimate ‘check & balance’ on corporate behavior like this and could prevent this whole approach from being viable once pent-up demand has exhausted itself.)
Multiple executives, including Parks Chairman Josh D’Amaro, have implicitly indicated that this is more or less occurring. When discussing the park reservations systems, they routinely mention yield management–or maximizing revenue by anticipating and influencing consumer behavior. Disney CFO Christine McCarthy has also indicated that the company pivoted with the Disney Park Pass system from limiting capacity due to local mandates to using it to “better balance load” attendance. This is something we’ve seen with Disney attempting to manage Lightning Lane inventory, and load balancing is also occurring with park reservations.
Another comment we’ve been hearing from readers is that the parks are busier than ever, which supposedly proves that the Disney Park Pass system is not working. These fans have a point—Walt Disney World posted wait times are high by historical standards. (The “busier than ever” assertion is technically untrue—this year has yet to surpass 2019, but it’s getting closer.)
However, these comments presuppose that the parks would not be even busier without reservations. Frankly, that is a bold—and probably inaccurate—assumption. The fact is that we don’t know what crowds would be like in the current environment if organic demand were allowed to play out unfettered because that’s not the world we inhabit. (Perhaps there’s still a Sacred Timeline out there with free FastPass, Magical Express, EMH, DDP, ETC!)
For one thing, crowds were on pace for a record-setting year through early March 2020. Had the parks not closed and attendance continued on the trajectory it was on, it would’ve absolutely blown 2019 out of the water. (Annual Passholders likely would’ve been subject to reservations at some point prior to this year, regardless—they had already debuted at Disneyland.)
As we’ve pointed out elsewhere, Walt Disney World’s annual attendance has consistently grown since the Great Recession. Anyone comparing today’s crowds to 2018 or earlier is making a fundamental mistake and ignoring the clear trend lines. (There are a number of reasons why the 2020s were likely to be busier than the 2010s–from demographics to expansion to the 50th to social media–all of which are beyond the scope of this post.)
For another thing, pent-up demand has very much been “a thing” the last year-plus. You don’t need us to rehash this, as it’s been discussed ad nauseam. It’s also been evident at tourist hotspots all around the country. A multitude of vacation destinations have introduced reservations, time entry, or lotto—ones that had no such issue with crowding pre-pandemic.
We also don’t need to fixate how capacity is impacted by the aforementioned staffing shortages, missing entertainment, shorter park hours, increased attraction downtime, and more. Suffice to say, all of this has increased congestion and perceived crowds. That means that a given daily attendance number has a much higher “feels like” crowd level than the exact same attendance total would’ve in 2019.
The easy and “popular” conclusion here would be that dealing with Disney Park Pass reservations sucks (it does!), exacerbating crowds while providing no upside for guests and only being beneficial to the beancounters. That the real reason is corporate greed and nothing more. There would be no way to definitively debunk such an assertion—and it’d clearly be a “crowd pleaser” with fans who want to feel vindicated in their anger and outrage.
Unfortunately (?), that is not our conclusion. We strongly dislike dealing with reservations and think it’s another point of friction in an already over-complicated process. We also think current management has gotten greedy and we worry that they’re doing irreparable brand damage. But the reservation system likely does have upside for guests. If left unchecked, crowds would likely be significantly worse much of the year, strain on Cast Members would be worse, and overall tensions would be higher.
Just because crowds feel unprecedentedly bad now does not mean they couldn’t be worse. (If you’ve learned anything from Disney’s dubious decisions over the last two years, it should be that things can always get worse!) It’s also likely that Disney leadership does have ulterior motives for reservations down the road, with yield management and load balancing being ways to maximize revenue while minimizing resources. Two things can be true at the same time: the reservations system can have ‘invisible’ upside for guests and visible downsides, both near and long-term.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think about the purported purpose of park reservations to “protect the guest experience” from overcrowding and “guarantee a great guest experience no matter when people come”? Do you think Disney is being dishonest about the true motivations for reservations? Think he’s oblivious to how things are on-the-ground for average guests at Walt Disney World and Disneyland? Agree or disagree with our take that crowds could be worse without Park Pass? Any other considerations we failed to take into account or details we missed? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Not exactly on point but perhaps one reason WDW and DL are seeing such large crowds is the result of baby boomers retiring and having free time and money to spend? We’re supposed to be the largest group with subsequent gens being considerably smaller. We’re also the group that grew up with “Uncle” Walt Disney coming over the house every Sunday night and the Mickey Mouse Club every afternoon either in original airings or like myself in reruns. Our deep rooted love of Disney flows permanently within us like it does for any beloved family member. This new version of Disney isn’t producing that loyalty. I think Eisner was aware of this point and thus tried to host a show himself but he didn’t have Walt’s sincerity, honesty or genuineness.
Eisner felt like that phony obnoxious neighbor who incessantly talks your ear off before asking you to help him repair his roof or borrow your riding mower all the while uncomfortably eyeing your youngest child.
It’s possible that when the Boomers begin fading away the Parks may not see the kind of crowds and revenue they are currently experiencing. That won’t be for ten or fifteen years from now but time passes quickly so it will be upon us soon. I just hope I’m around to say, “told you so” and enjoy the short lines and lower prices (based on 2022 dollars).
That is unquestionably playing a role–and will for the next several years.
America’s demographics are great for Disney right now: millennials (who have a ton of nostalgia for Disney) are a huge generation and now are having kids of their own. Meanwhile, their baby boomer parents are retiring (many with a lot of money for multigenerational trips).
On top of that, the number of people globally in the middle class has absolutely exploded–as has the ease of international travel (not in the last ~2 years, just in general).
Thanks for the interesting article, Tom.
I may be wrong, but it felt like Disney was reducing staff way before Covid, at least to me. We noticed this on our visits in 2017 and 2018, maybe even before. They only had one side of an attraction running many times. This seemed to progress as our trips went on.
Now they have had Covid as an excuse.
I know there is staff shortages at disney, but look at Universal. They seem to have a better handle on how to treat their TM’s and they don’t seem to be short staffed. Universal is also smaller than disney too.
I feel that if disney paid their CM’s better and treated them better, they might just stick around. Disney also needs to up their game on CM housing. How can anyone afford housing on what is being paid now? I feel for the CM’s at disney and hope this can be changed in the future.
I don’t give Chapek a pass on all the bad changes that have been made “for the guest experience”, yea right. All the changes have made their stock holders very happy. I also don’t buy that they need to up the prices since Covid because of money hardships. They had incredible earnings which are well documented. They are not hurting for money. If they spent some of that money on the CM’s, better food, and park ride repairs (also just on general maintenance of parks themselves, they could afford to do this. IMO there is no reason to give the CEO’s a huge raise when the parks/CM’s are suffering.
We have voted with our money. Our big family are no longer disney fans. We no longer sing the praises of disney to others and discourage them from going to disney. This is a big deal, because we have always been that couple, the ones who helped others and visited regularly. Now we are going to other destinations and are very happy about that, especially the fantastic Universal and Sea World.
Sorry for the rant, but I dont’ give them a pass on ruining the brand name and their future, IMO. I know you didn’t give them a pass either, just my comment on what they are doing.
Thanks Tom. Always appreciate your insights. We were down last week of February and the first week of October this year. His a couple busy, busy weeks. Still, glad we were able to go and had a good time.
Reading the other replies, I’m at a loss as to what Disney is expected to do here. The main complaints seem to be:
1. The parks are too crowded.
2. The parks are too expensive.
3. The reservation system is inconvenient and complicated.
4. The reliance on handheld devices makes the park experience complicated.
It comes down to the fact that an ever-growing number of people like ourselves love to visit Disney parks, but the peak capacity has remained the same. And you also can’t underestimate the huge disruption COVID brought, having to lay off large numbers of cast members and then try to hire them back in a time when there is unprecedented demand for labor.
The main lever Disney has for controlling demand is price. They have raised prices tremendously, but given how far out people plan vacations, it has yet to be seen how this will affect demand. So far, there has been little, if any, lessening of attendance figures. You can’t both complain about the crowds and then also complain about the prices. Leaving the prices the same as before COVID would only make the parks even more crowded.
The other thing Disney could do to lessen crowds is to build out even more capacity, but that doesn’t seem to be on the table. What they have done is take measures to load balance the parks, hence the reservation system and Genie systems. Since the peak capacity remains fixed, the only thing they can do is help guide people to days with lower attendance and balance the crowds throughout the parks and rides.
The easiest and fastest way to increase capacity is extend park hours. It was not uncommon pre 2017 for parks to be open till midnight or 1AM on a regular day. Now even at extremely high capacity for MK to close at 9pm or 10pm. Now 11pm is a rarity. Summer Mark was almost always midnight the whole summer before.
Extending park hours disperses the crowds tremendously as people often either rope dropped or stayed till close but not both, now with the cost and short hours people often go the whole distance.
Old timer wdw fans don’t handle change well.
Trying to remember when was the last time I saw a cast member with their tablet at Disneyland asking us for our opinion ………… it has been a while.
Interesting notes. I had seen that 8 Nov is already ‘closed’ for MK, though that is the first party day, and I’d expect that to be a lower attendance day there. Why do you think that one is already full? I’m confused (not the only time).
Exact same thing happened with the first MNSSHP day, and it ended up being 1/10 (and had low “feels like” crowds–I was there that whole day). Here was our explanation for that prior to it happening: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/no-these-dates-wont-be-busy-at-disney-world/
My expectation is that November 8 will be at least a slightly different story, as that’s likely to be a busy week at WDW. My guess would be 5/10 or 6/10 crowds at Magic Kingdom, and higher elsewhere. I would not be the least bit surprised to see both that week and Thanksgiving go totally grey on the calendar. Hard to say just how busy it’ll get, though.
Thanks! Just thought it seemed weird it would already be shut off. I’m expecting heavy crowds too, so we’ll see what happens with the zigging and zagging. I hope not a greyed out week (at least until later–the 8th is our last day; we extended a day just to do MK with the party scheduled).
Does anyone know why there are issues reserving campsites at Ft. Wilderness? We are trying to book for this time next year and all we could get was the most expensive site the week before we wanted. They never opened up any other choices. Thoughts or info welcomed.
For years, Disney has had a problem with people booking campsites for the perks and not using them (instead staying in off-site accommodations). Honestly, I’m not sure whether this is still an issue now that MagicBands, etc., are not provided. I don’t follow it closely enough to know for sure.
This is also a VERY popular time of year for Fort Wilderness.
Follow up: We have stayed at Ft. Wilderness in October 9 times over last 17 years and have never had a problem booking. The cast members in booking said ‘something’ happened and they do not know what but has greatly affected reserving campsites.
I wish you would address the growing DVC membership in these past years and how families have changed from taking a Disney vacation once every two to three years to twice or more times each years. I believe this has significantly added to the increased crowds in the parks. We have been DVC members since 2010. Once we became members, we started going every year, sometimes twice, in order to use our points. My guess is that many other famines are now doing the same. Crowd size has severely decreased our enjoyment and we are contemplating selling our points. This next year we have a reservation at our home resort. We plan to eat at restaurants at the various resorts and go off grounds at times as well. We do not plan to visit any parks. Too much of a hassle and too crowded.
I loved your article. I disagree with you saying you are verbose and Stanley saying it’s too long. Definitely not boring. I read thru the twists and turns glued to my seat :). I appreciate the thought and analysis and balanced presentation that are the hallmarks of your posts ! You can’t get those things across with fewer words in my opinion . Many thanks and please keep these insightful pieces coming!! They are fascinating due to your in depth knowledge and hands on experience .
I have to second this opinion in all respects. 🙂 I have no idea how you have time to keep on top of all this, Tom, and write so thoughtfully about it, but I appreciate it so much. Keep up the good work, please!
Thanks for the kind words–I’m glad some of you like the longer reads. 🙂
Sometimes it’s difficult to determine what should be included and what should be cut (or simply linked out to past articles), and self-editing probably doesn’t help with clarity or conciseness!
Thanks so much for saying this, I agree! We love Disney. We live in Canada and visit 2 or more times per year for the past decade. Our family does not have a DVC membership we just enjoy our time together there and go when we can. I read this Disney blog consistently, and only this blog. Tom, you are a great communicator and write in a very engaging way. You are not verbose and I have never read a boring article written by you. Thanks for all the info you have shared over the years that have helped us maximize the fun on our trips. Even the three Disney trips we have taken since December 2021 have been great despite hitting high crowds each time.
Disney is actively pursuing a grand data science project that throws out pre-2019 history and takes advantage of the reset that Covid closure enabled.
The goal is to optimize net income per dollar spent across all parks on a daily basis.
They need to do this to address the massive debt racked up by acquisitions and Covid revenue loss. Only by doing so can they keep market cap and stock prices high.
Higher prices, reduced availability of parks are one impact. The other is reduced refurb and maintenance of attractions leading to record downtime in the last few months. Leading to lower guest experience.
Long term slide of brand loyalty has already begun. By 2025, with Epic’s opening, this will be drop further as the “Disney Difference” meets competition that its current strategic plan can’t address.
After 50 years of enjoying Disney parks and defending a demonstrable Disney Difference (with little help from honest and spin heavy management), I am pretty much done. I have no stock to liquidate, but I am voting with my feet.
It’s a dangerous game, though, and one that ignores the ability of guests to do exactly that–vote with their feet–or assumes that there’s an endless stream of first-timers insusceptible to negative word of mouth.
I think those were safe bets to make as pent-up demand plays/played out, but it’s a totally different dynamic when travel conditions normalize. Companies don’t have unilateral ability to raise prices, cut corners, and so forth–which is why Disney didn’t do all of this in 2019 or earlier!
Agree with you and Tom on these points. Also done after 50 years due to current management and direction ! And also voting with my feet.
Tom, what do you think? As a DVC member I have skin in the game as the mouse already has my money. But if I recall correctly Disney recently stated that visitors are paying 40% more as compared to a year ago. If staffing is the major obstacle to all the problems why not just pay the staffers more? That would seem to solve the problem and possibly only make a small dent in Disneys bottom line. And maybe not even if they attract more visitors.
Raising wages for short-staffed positions isn’t quite that easy, especially in a heavily unionized environment like Walt Disney World. (This is NOT a knock on unions–just the practical reality that those contracts need to be renegotiated, and the unions would want higher wages for other roles, even those without staffing shortages.)
Another component, I suspect, is that Disney anticipates the labor market cooling next year, and doesn’t want to lock-in higher wages–even if that means inflicting some short term pain and missed revenue.
Yet another component is the local labor and housing markets. Orlando has a huge transplant population, and many of those hospitality workers left in March 2020 when business shut down. In large part, they were “replaced” by remote workers from the Northeast earning considerably higher wages–who also caused the cost of living (and shelter, in particular) to increase.
For certain jobs, barriers to legal immigration are hurdles, as those roles typically are not filled by Americans at any wages.
Basically, there is no short and sweet answer to any of this. It’s all multifaceted and will take time to work itself out. And just to be clear, I’m not absolving Disney from blame in ANY of this. They laid people off in the first place, and were way too slow to recall or hire when the recovery started. Universal did not get caught flat footed in nearly the same way. (Although I suspect they will face serious problems staffing frontline roles at Epic Universe unless something changes in a major way between now and 2025.)
Good read.
Look forward to all the posts that are beyond the scope of this post.
Just a few of the posts already in draft that I hope to finish before Christmas:
“Are Demographics Disney’s Destiny?”
“Chapek Wants You to Visit Less.”
“Ride Downtime Woes at Walt Disney World”
I won’t touch the topic of Cast Member morale and turnover because everything I’ve been told about that is conversational and was never intended to be shared publicly. I’ll just say that if fans realized how bad things are for Cast Members right now, I think most would give a little more grace instead of complaining that “Cast Members aren’t as magical anymore.” That’s unfortunate, and I get that people are paying a ton of money for these trips…but there’s a reason why things are that way.
I was in DW mid-October. definitely are issues with crowds, prices, device-dependency..however I must say the cast members were overall fantastic. From stores, to rides, to transportation, to hotel, to performers. It was honestly one of my favorite things about the park and I would rather the extra costs go to them than anyone else. They work hard and add so much to the experience.
Tom, definitely would love here your insight on “ride downtime.” It boggles my mind how before 2017 you may experience one or two rides down in a day. Now mulitiple rides go down and often one ride will go down several times in one day.
Really enjoyed reading this article. Actually, I read all your articles. Even the ones that I am really not interested in experiencing/doing at the parks. I always enjoy or learn something. Thank you
I’m going to back Tom up here and say that working in guest facing service jobs is kind of awful. EVERYBODY (guests and cast members) has lived through an incredibly stressful 2+ years so everyone’s patience is worn thin. But whereas there aren’t really any repercussions for a guest snapping at a cast member, there are definitely repercussions for a cast member losing their cool. So they just have to absorb a lot of abuse directed their way about things that are *way* beyond their control (you think the person you’re speaking to in the park came up with Genie+ or is responsible for years of spotty ride maintenance?). A lot of people have decided it just isn’t worth it, especially not at the wages Disney is paying. I don’t see these staffing shortages being resolved for a long, long time.
I’m from the Midwest and we usually get to Orlando twice a year. Used to be at the top of our list. But the last time we went to Orlando, we didn’t do a Disney park at all and had the best time. We went to Disney springs and felt like we still had a Disney experience, ate at Boma for breakfast and went to Ohana for dinner one night. So we enjoyed Disney our way without the reservation hassles and didn’t wait in any lines or spend money to wait in lines for mediocre rides. I have been a fan of Disney my entire life, but they have disappointed me and my family with their continued greed and they don’t care about people anymore. My money will be spent elsewhere from here going forward.
All I can say to this is that we have consistently visited WDW for our anniversary the third week of October for years. We were there in October 2019 just as we were this year and I can state unequivocally that the parks were less crowded in 2019, no matter what the “record crowds” were.
If the point of the reservation system is to guarantee that a visitor won’t be turned away, then the limit could be as high as a first level closure on Christmas day. I’ve been at the Magic Kingdom for one of those and the “guest experience” was awful, you can barely move. Saying you won’t be turned away does not guarantee a good experience. Whatever they are doing with the capacities, they are not being limited to a good experience level.
1) Late August through (roughly) mid-October 2019 were anomalies, with lower attendance due to fears of massive crowds following the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. I can’t speak to raw attendance numbers, but I agree that “feels like” crowds were worse this October. I suspect that will not hold true this November or December v. 2019.
2) Current caps are WAY lower than any of the phased closure levels from 2019 or earlier. However, (theoretical) available capacity is also lower due to the shortages, shorter hours, missing entertainment, etc.
I’d be very interested to see a breakdown of the attendance numbers tied to the number of hours of daily parks operations. If 1,000 people have 17 hrs to spread out their park experience, vs 12 or fewer, how does that change crowds and crowd-feel? When the parks were open from 7am to midnight, I would leave to recharge (nap, change clothes, dine off-site…)
I visited 5-6 trips/year (and am literally from Seattle!), including Feb 2020 and Oct 2021. Crowds were increasing, the amount of reliance on the app, navigating various Disney-imposed hurdles, and a palpable change in the crowd/cast atmosphere were beginning to have a negative impact for me.
Like you, I’m not planning to return for the foreseeable future. I miss Disneyland daily. I would add “insult” to injury, in that I feel insulted by the lack of transparency and a sense that TWDC script seems to disregard how savvy adult Disney fans are.
I was engaged, married, and an AP holder since 2007 until my AP was cancelled by TWDC during the pandemic. I didn’t cancel it – I held my faith, trust & pixie dust until they decided to pry them away. I miss Disneyland. The magic has sorta gone “Poof!” for this Seattle family. We’re used to rain on our parades, but this isn’t that. Disney could have done better: greed leads to lasting customer attrition.
Wouldn’t it be nice if Chapek would just take Tom’s truthful and well thought out assessment and explain it to the press and public like it is? I’d rather have the truth than someone telling me a half truth and spinning it that it is all done in my best interests.
For a little while, but Chapek and the CFO actually were being pretty transparent about this on earnings calls.
I’m not sure this approach would work for Chapek when explaining policies at length, even if he wanted to do so. He’s simply not a great communicator–he has trouble being blunt and honest without also being condescending. (Not saying I am a great communicator–I know I’m way too verbose–but I’m good enough to recognize his shortcomings.)
Great perspectives and appreciate your thoughtful insight!
I agree there has been “irreparable brand damage” In the last year we have sold our DVC and refused to go back even though Disney has been our favorite vacation spot for quite some time. I very much appreciate your in depth analysis and continue to read your blog because of it in spite of the fact that Disney is history for us now. Thanks!
I like the idea that there’s a system to limit park attendance. With the crowds getting bigger than ever, a reservation system at least theoretically caps attendance to a level where the park can be staffed properly. Some parks are regularly filling up way in advance; for example, right now, in late October, some parks are completely booked up for late November, not to mention around Christmas.
The example that the reservation system doesn’t prevent 100% of people from showing up and not being able to attend a park is a logical fallacy. Balancing attendance is good for 99.9% of park attendees by smoothing out the crowds and good for Disney by making it easier to predict what staffing levels are needed. Can you imagine being a Disney manager and trying to make sure there are enough cast members there without a reservation system?
Implementing a reservation system is tricky; the only way to make the current system less complicated would be to limit a ticket to a specific day upon purchase. The main advantage of decoupling reservations from tickets is getting a reservation without purchasing a ticket. Having the theoretical ability to use the actual ticket on any day, however, is meaningless without also having the ability to use the reservation on any day. Combining the two concepts on balance would be simpler if you could move a ticket/reservation at any time, assuming there’s a park with availability.
“Can you imagine being a Disney manager and trying to make sure there are enough cast members there without a reservation system?”
They did this pretty successfully for ~48 years, so yeah.
Disney has a ton of historic and current data for resource allocation. I’m not convinced that park reservations meaningfully move the needle on that.
The rest of your points are well-taken, though.
Disney has been an important part of my life for most of my 74 years. After following the news for the last several years, I believe continuing to use the term “guest” is misleading. Chapek has made it clear that we are basically bodies walking around with smart phones and credit cards.
Chapek has definitely laid that bare, but hasn’t it always been the case that the term “guest” is savvy spin by Disney?
At least for me, “guest” is someone who is invited to appear in a place–usually the home of friends or family–without charge. The connotation is that you’ll be received, without charge, and met with hospitality. I don’t think the word has ever had a legitimate place in the consumer context. The same could arguably be said of “Cast Member” v. employee. Disney is great at storytelling, so we’ve just accepted those terms over the years.
Linda, I’m with you! “Cog and Caste” feels a little more accurate. While the definitions never literally described the role of guest or cast member perhaps, they perfectly captured the feel of what Walt intended for the experience at Disneyland and what he dreamed for WDW. Those words served as guideposts – they’re imbued with certain expectations and a little Disney Magic. We are supposed to leave today (suspend our realities even!) and enter the worlds of yesterday, tomorrow, and fantasy.
I hear ya, sister.
“they perfectly captured the feel of what Walt intended for the experience at Disneyland and what he dreamed for WDW. Those words served as guideposts – they’re imbued with certain expectations and a little Disney Magic. We are supposed to leave today (suspend our realities even!) and enter the worlds of yesterday, tomorrow, and fantasy.”
Excellent point.
your article is way to long get boring after awhile but make it short and to point.use to love Disney world went 88 times in 27 years in a row never going back probably but I like the old system and it getting to expensive for a mid class family.