What’s Causing Higher Crowds at Disney World in 2024?
It’s been a weird year for Walt Disney World crowds. Wait times have been increasing year-over-year in 2024, reversing monthly declines for the first time since January 2023. This post takes a look at potential factors why this winter and part of Spring Break season have been busier than the same dates last year.
This is something we started discussing recently in Re-Revenge Travel at Walt Disney World in 2024. As of that crowd report, average year-to-date wait times for 2024 were tied with 2022 (41 minutes) and up considerably as compared to last year (37 minutes). If the second half of Spring Break ends up being busy, 2024 could soon pull into the lead as the #1 worst year ever at Walt Disney World for wait time levels/crowds.
That honestly was not what we expected. Our forecast was for pent-up demand to continue exhausting itself, a process that had not yet fully played out as of the end of last year. As such, we expected crowd levels to drop slightly through at least the first half of 2024. Instead, the opposite is happening. We’ve already theorized about the why of that, but this offers more possibilities, discusses them in greater detail, and attempts to address the likelihood that crowds will continue to increase in 2024…
To start, there are several factors for the bounceback that pertain to the economy and aren’t really unique to Walt Disney World. I don’t want to gloss over these since they’re probably among the best predictors of theme park attendance. But at the same time, I know this is going to be long and we’ve already discussed all of these things.
In a nutshell, fears of a recession are diminishing, inflation is easing, real wages are increasing, consumer confidence is improving, and the stock market is up year-to-date and has reached new record highs. It’s probably not profound insight to say that people are more likely to visit Walt Disney World if they feel good about their financial circumstances and their portfolios are looking good.
It was a similar story, to some extent, a couple years ago when markets were booming. And who knows, maybe there’s overlap between Nvidia enthusiasts, Bitcoin maximalists, and Walt Disney World fandom. That would explain some of the exuberance and attendance!
Another previously-discussed possibility is that 2024 crowds might be a slight ‘reverberation’ after the pent-up demand of 2022. That 2023 was the ‘break’ year for families that visit Walt Disney World semi-frequently, and they’re returning in 2024. Think of it like a ripple or the accordion effect in traffic jams.
This is worth mentioning because, when it comes to crowds at Walt Disney World, the big story in the last few years has been pent-up demand. First the arrival of it, then the exhaustion of it. Now, it would seem, a new ‘wave’ of it. These factors above and below may be fueling “re-revenge travel,” a term we made up that has a certain understated stupidity to it.
We can speculate and theorize about the causes, but it’s fairly undeniable that this is happening. For one, the wait times data reflects as much. While it’s possible to explain this away to some extent with possibilities such as more ride downtime or stronger Genie+ sales, I’m skeptical either of those (or similar) factors differ today versus one year ago. And that’s what we’re looking at.
Beyond that, there are other stats that reflect similar trends. According to Orlando International Airport, passenger traffic increased by 6.5% for January (the last month for which there’s data), with domestic passenger traffic up 5.2% and international traffic up 15.8%. Visit Orlando has reported that hotel bookings for the first quarter of 2024 are outpacing last year by over 5%, and advance airline ticket sales into Orlando are also up in the first quarter of 2024 by roughly 10%.
Visit Orlando forecasts hotel bookings to be up 4% for the full year, with further increases in 2025. That would put both years ahead of 2022, the peak of pent-up demand. The organization expects this to be fueled in large part by international travel, which is projected to return to 2019 levels for the first time. This is all notable as last year was down across the board, with decreases in revenue and occupancy due to ~2 million fewer out-of-state visitors to Florida.
As it relates to Walt Disney World, here are some monkey wrenches that have been thrown into the mix that could account for the year-to-date increases in crowds…
International Tourists & Groups – Winter is the ‘summer’ vacation season for South America, and there was a time when it felt like Brazilian tour groups were the dominant demographic during the first few months of the year. This was especially pronounced coming out of the Great Recession up until 2014 (before the Brazilian economic crisis), when crowds were lower as a whole making South American crowds proportionally greater. And like cheerleaders, guests are more likely to notice groups of people who stick out for whatever reason.
With Brazil’s economy once again improving, it seems like these tour groups are once again appearing in higher volume. This isn’t a new-for-2024 trend. I first noticed tour groups returning in full force last winter. But it feels like they’re back in even fuller force this year, with more vibrant bags, flags, and shirts.
Lagging pent-up demand for international travel is one element of this, but probably not the full story. I would add that Walt Disney World is doing more to entice international travelers to return with ticket and other deals. It’s also possible that international visitors from countries with weak currency (relative to the strong dollar) have now gotten used to this as the ‘new normal’ and are no longer postponing visits.
Of course, these are just theories. Whatever the actual reasons for an increase in international tourists, it’s happening. Even though Walt Disney World doesn’t release visitor demographics (or any statistics), the airport does–and those show international traffic up significantly. It’s safe to say MCO numbers are a good proxy for WDW.
Conventions Return – The conventioneer can usually be observed traveling in herds, typically consisting of middle-aged men dressed in attire ranging from country club to funeral-casual. Their monotone wardrobe is sometimes punctuated by Patagonia vests, and of course, the obligatory lanyard.
I’ve already logged two stays at Coronado Springs in 2024 and on both of those occasions, the resort was hosting conventions. This isn’t out of the ordinary–hosting these individuals and their events is the whole reason Gran Destino Tower was built! Business travel will regain 95% of its 2019 level in 2024, up from 89% last year, the U.S. Travel Association forecasts. The group also notes that this will vary by sector based on views of the economy–with the markets near all-time highs, the number could climb higher. (For international travel, volume is projected to be at 98% of 2019 levels this year, up from 84% last year.)
Honestly, I have never gotten a good read on how conventioneers do or don’t impact attendance at Walt Disney World. As discussed recently in Why Are Walt Disney World Resorts Sold Out in 2024?, there are scenarios, in theory, where certain demographics occupying hotel rooms could decrease crowds if those guests are less-inclined to visit the parks and effectively ‘block’ others from booking. Of course, that is theoretical and assumes the room would’ve been booked by someone else rather than sitting empty. It also assumes that the alternative occupant wouldn’t have stayed off-site.
What’s also tricky about conventioneers is that, while they are easy to spot, their families are not. It’s entirely possible that a good percentage of these business travelers are bringing their spouses and children, and they are visiting the parks while the conventioneer learns business stuff. Entirely anecdotal, but this would track to some extent, as I noticed surprisingly busy buses at Coronado Springs even as the resort hosted conventions.
One final thing that’s not theoretical is the conventioneers’ impact on EPCOT. Not only is this the park they’re most inclined to visit (both individually and as part of group activities), but I’ve noticed several evenings where my favorite fireworks spots were blocked off for private events. This could be things other than conventions, but whatever the reason, it’s happening more frequently and in more locations. This alone makes me confident in saying that Disney Meetings & Events is seeing a rebound and groups are a greater contributor to crowds in at least some parks, on some dates.
Youth Sporting Groups – This is like conventions, but for children. By that, I mean that events hosted at the ESPN Wide World of Sports have a similar dynamic–outsized impact on certain hotels, but possibly far less on crowds since the participants are there for a purpose other than parks.
The difference is that kids, generally speaking, like Walt Disney World more than 40-something businessmen. So it’s probably safe to assume youth sporting events do impact crowds more than conventions. With that said, my perspective is that the degree to which the cheer, dance, and other sports contribute to crowding is massively exaggerated. Anyone who has ever been in line for Haunted Mansion behind a few dozen tween cheerleaders probably vehemently disagrees, but that’s precisely the point. That type of experience sticks in memories (trust me, been there!) and is anecdotally overweighted as a result.
Regardless of all that, I also don’t really think youth sporting events are making much of a difference on 2024 crowd levels versus last year. The ESPN Wide World of Sports calendar was jam-packed last winter and spring, too. I don’t really think there’s much lagged pent-up demand here–certainly not as much as conventions. Meaning that, even if we disagree about how much these groups cause more crowding, we can presumably agree that the impact was roughly equal both this year and last.
Snowbirds – These guests were especially easy to spot back in January, as the volume of Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills team apparel was impossible to miss. There were also a startling number of hilarious, highly intelligent and attractive people in the parks, and all of them were wearing Detroit Lions gear.
None of this is really anything new; Chiefs and Bills fans–plus Saints during Mardi Gras–always dominate. (The same used to be true of the Bears and Giants when they were good; I assume it was also the case for the Jets…back when Joe Namath played.) However, it seemed more common than any year since 2020.
Walt Disney World and Florida as a whole being popular with snowbirds also isn’t a 2024 development. It’s possible that visitors from Northern and Midwestern states with the freedom to travel during off-peak months are choosing the winter and upcoming shoulder season over late summer and early fall as a result of last year’s brutally high heat and humidity. It’s also entirely possible that I simply noticed more guests from these states. At most, this probably is a minor contributing factor and not a major cause of crowding.
South Florida – Similar scenario as snowbirds, except coming from the opposite direction and in-state. One thing we noticed during at the start of the post-reopening period was a high percentage of guests at both Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando coming from South Florida. (They’re somewhat easy to spot for the same reason as snowbirds and more.) At the time, I assumed that was due to discounts, convenience, and a comparative absence of travelers from other regions.
To whatever extent this is happening in 2024, I couldn’t explain it. Maybe more marketing–television and radio ads–aimed at South Florida? Ticket deals do now include weekends, which definitely is more conducive to quick trips to Central Florida.
Ticket Deals – Walt Disney World has released more ticket deals thus far in 2024 than up to this same point last year. While technically true, that’s slightly misleading. One of those is a water park ticket deal and two of the other ones just came out this week and aren’t valid until April.
The more salient point, at least for Walt Disney World crowds through the first two and a half months of the year, is that the annual winter and early spring discount for Floridians included weekends in 2024 but was weekdays-only last year. That’s a big difference for those with 9 to 5 jobs or school schedules.
I’d be willing to bet that Walt Disney World sold significantly more Florida resident tickets in 2024 as a result. This is also a big reason why Saturday and Sundays are no longer the least-busy days of the week at Walt Disney World, which is was a trend that started last year.
(UPDATE: Since this post was first published, there was also a major pullback in crowds during the week of Orange County’s Spring Break, which was when aggressive Annual Pass blockouts kicked in and the first Florida resident deal of the year ended. While there are undoubtedly other factors explaining why that week was atypically uncrowded, these two things are likely the biggest drivers.)
Looking forward, there’s a new Florida resident ticket as well as the Multi-day ‘Magic’ Ticket for the general public, both of which are valid from April through late September 2024. These ticket deals are not unprecedented–both were also offered last year. But there’s another key distinction, just like there was for the first Floridian ticket deal of the year: they’re valid over a month earlier than last year, and were announced almost a month before that.
This most obvious outcome is this increasing late Spring Break and shoulder season crowds, as the ticket deals will be valid for these dates whereas they weren’t last year. Additionally, they could increase crowds across the board, as the earlier advance notice allows people to plan around these tickets (especially true with out-of-state tourists and the Magic ticket) and take trips when they otherwise wouldn’t have done so.
The Magic ticket was incredibly popular last year, but from what we saw, that was with people who already had vacations planned. The longer lead time and eligibility window increases the likelihood that people will take trips due to this year’s version of the same–meaning it’ll induce more demand.
2019 Discount Playbook – Since late last year, we’ve noticed that Walt Disney World has been pulling from what we call the “2019 discount playbook.” The special offers released since then have been strikingly similar to those from 2019, which was the year of the pre-Star Wars Slump. In fact, some of the percentages have been slightly superior to what was offered in 2019–and far better than any year since then.
This has noticeably been the case with the room-only offers, but it extends far beyond that. Even more obscure ones like PIN Codes and Bouncebacks and now Priceline Express Deals are all resembling what was offered in 2019. Then there’s fan-favorite Free Dining, which made its triumphant return for the first time since 2019–when the discount was offered in three waves.
The extent to which all of this has had or will have an impact on crowd levels in the theme parks is debatable. For one thing, the majority of Walt Disney World park guests come from off-site. For another thing, these discounts are not offered out of generosity, but to prevent a drop in resort occupancy–they’re essentially an offset, or aimed at maintaining the status quo. While low occupancy would likely signal low crowds in the parks, the opposite isn’t necessarily true–we’d need to know what the numbers are like at third party hotels around Central Florida (among other things).
In this regard, past precedent with Free Dining is instructive. This promotion has historically been offered during the off-season, and has done a tremendous job helping Walt Disney World fill hotel rooms. Even as it increased occupancy and made Advance Dining Reservations much more difficult to score, low crowd levels persisted. That should go to show that on-site hotel and sit-down dining capacity is a subset of park capacity.
While I think Walt Disney World got caught a bit flat-footed last year, scrambled to pull levers (including discounts) to entice people to visit and was general behind the curve, I still don’t think this year’s more aggressive hotel-centric discounts will contribute much to crowding. Now the aforementioned ticket deals are another story entirely.
Park Policy Changes – At the beginning of 2024, Walt Disney World mostly eliminated theme park reservations, brought back the Disney Dining Plan, and resumed unlimited all-day Park Hopping. Next up is pre-arrival Lightning Lane ride reservations, a system that should closely resemble FastPass+ (but paid), which is looking more like a summer launch at this point.
Every one of these things was important to certain fans. The absence of which was a ‘deal-breaker’ without which they wouldn’t return. We know this because plenty of people told us as much. While I won’t fall into the trap of over-representing readers of sites like this one in the park-going population as a whole, there were at least some fans still sitting on the sidelines until these things returned.
In terms of general crowd dynamics, the biggest change is the return of all-day Park Hopping. This is entirely anecdotal (again), but I’ve done a few Early Entry and rope drop mornings at Animal Kingdom and left before noon…and noticed lines at the bus stops for other parks. So I know I’m not the only person finishing DAK early and bouncing to other parks, because I’ve literally seen it.
EPCOT Overhaul Ends – The park seeing the largest year-over-year increase in wait times data in 2024 has been EPCOT, which ended its busiest 6-week stretch in the last year–and one of its worst stretches since 2022–in late February. EPCOT is outperforming all other parks at Walt Disney World right now (relative to 2023–not in absolute terms).
It’s honestly kind of wild. EPCOT debuted Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, Harmonious, Beacons of Magic, Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind–not to mention a bunch of smaller-scale stuff (Connections, Club Cool, Creations Shop, etc.) in late 2021 and throughout 2022.
None of that moved the needle as much as simply filling in the Giant EPCOT Dirt Pit™️ and presenting a new nighttime spectacular that wasn’t bad/hideous. That’s very reductionist, obviously, but that’s undoubtedly the big driver. And it makes me feel vindicated in repeatedly saying that Walt Disney World was leaving money on the table by dragging its feet on the Central Spine redesign.
In any case, wait times are up year-over-year at EPCOT and (anecdotally) feels like crowds are even worse. It’s difficult to say how long it’ll sustain this momentum, but my guess is for a while. EPCOT is the local’s park and it still has more to unveil throughout this year. If CommuniCore Hall debuts, brings more substance back to events, and a new summer festival debuts…EPCOT could conceivably surpass its 2022 popularity.
This is arguably the story for Walt Disney World as a whole. While fans are bemoaning the dearth of brand-new additions, this year marks the end of a development cycle and a time when “all” of the new stuff is finally open and construction is finished. For people who visit infrequently every few years or once-ever (the majority of guests!), that could make 2024 a more attractive time to visit than the last few years. Walt Disney World pulling “levers” to entice fans to return undoubtedly adds to that, meaning it could be a year that a wide variety of groups will visit. Or, who knows, the wheels could fall off after Spring Break and the rest of the year could be even slower. We were wrong about winter, so there’s nothing to say we won’t be wrong about summer and beyond.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Surprised or unsurprised that 2024 has been as busy or busier than last year? Think this is going to be the year of re-revenge travel at Walt Disney World? If so, what do you think are the main causes? What has your experience been with crowds at Walt Disney World thus far in 2024? Surprised by the wait times or congestion in the first few months of the year? Do you agree or disagree with our take on the crowds? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Just read the article and it made me laugh a little. I think the middle class is going to have a hard time in the near (1-3 years) future. Disney is trying to get ready for it ahead of time. Large corporations like Disney usually do. While visible outward signs says recession fears are decreasing, I fear the actions DC have set in motion only a delay in it happening. Recent EPA mumblings make me wonder if the (IMO) biggest driver of inflation, transportation costs, are set to explode beyond imaginable proportions. The new rules for cars to “encourage” a faster switch to EV (not bad idea but infrastructure lacks greatly) will cause all prices to rebound back into the stratosphere. And “lower” inflation rates are still above and they are not going down as fast – that means prices are still going up. And what is counted to compute inflation has changed much since the 80’s and I don’t feel it accurately reflects reality to the middle-class. Real wages are also looked at differently now then years ago. And consumer confidence stats can be manipulated by wording. We had a good economy, we had a pandemic, we are recovering from it, what is it really like compared to before? Disney is trying to build their base before another hole in the bottom ruptures. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I am somewhat pragmatic. Sorry for being long-winded
Don’t underestimate the impact Genie+ has on both wait times and the appearance of more crowds. Every person that buys Genie+ is like they are cloning themselves. The clone is waiting in line while the other is either crowding the walkways or standing in a different line making that queue longer. so if 2000 more people buy Genie that’s like 2000 more people in the park.
While you alluded to it in your article, I would emphasize the million plus people that moved to Florida in the last 3 years, some of which were muliple times a year visitor that can now go at will (I am one of them). My estimate is that 10% of them are Disney people, adding one hundred thousand or more people that can go to Disney anytime.
Also I have talked to many younger Floridians who go to Disney to exclusively ride the newer rides via genie+, lightening lanes virtual queues, and waiting in lines.
I think the parks will always be crowded in the future, and will require careful use of the tools and events like early morning rope drop and after hours times to maximize enjoyment.
I was stoked to read your predictions about the first spring break week (march 8th-14th) being the slowest as we arrived on the 9th and returned last night on the 15th. we go every 2 years and while wait times were about as expected for any busy week, the feels like factor was off the charts for us. getting from point A to point B felt like salmon swimming upstream and we were fighting for our lives dodging the double stroller armies, the oblivious wanderers and the head in phone zombies. it was shoulder to shoulder getting anywhere, including parts of animal kingdom which is usually lower traffic! I also am feeling a bit surprised to see genie+ hasn’t sold out today at a price of $25 when I was up in the middle of the night securing my $35 genies based on crowd levels. it’s a Saturday between two spring break weeks! I was kind of expecting some satisfaction in seeing crowds rise further after we left. lol (sorry for those traveling in the next few weeks) but so far it’s looking like spring break week#1 was officially a doozy. early entry was the only reprieve of the day where we had our own oxygen to breathe in the space around us. we got on everything we wanted to without being in the parks all day long but we had to work hard for it in terms of crossing the parks multiple times and being very aggressive with lightning lane strategy.
Between the ticket deal ending and lack of AP blockouts, it looks like last week is going to be busier than this coming week. I’m still surprised, as that’s not usually the case–and it still might not be–we’ll see what happens when Monday rolls around. Not a huge shock that this weekend’s crowds are/will be lower.
As for feels like crowds, they’ve gone from bad to worse in the last few months. Hopefully that’ll change in May, but I wouldn’t expect congestion to improve much at all in the next month or so.
Tom,
Your quote reminds me of a line from The Rookie: ‘We see it, but you don’t’.
“None of that moved the needle as much as simply filling in the Giant EPCOT Dirt Pit™️ … And it makes me feel vindicated…”
Yes.
::Cringing about my upcoming Easter trip to Disney::
Christmas week is my benchmark, so maybe it’ll be less than that?
Pinning all my hopes on late July lol!
Christmas to NYE? It’ll definitely be less than that. No week is that busy. It’s not even close.
Week before Christmas? Yeah, probably in that ballpark–possibly even slightly worse.
“Rising tides raise all ships.”
Have to wonder if Epic Universe will actually increase attendance across all the parks and general crowds in central Florida. Orlando may experience a tourist invasion.
That’s actually something I addressed at length in this post: Is Universal “Beating” Walt Disney World?
Here’s a portion, which mostly agrees with your take:
I wouldn’t even necessarily bet on Walt Disney World seeing a drop in 2025. Super Nintendo World has all-ages appeal (probably a lot like Harry Potter in 2010), from elder millennials who grew up on the SNES to their kids who are getting Switches for Christmas this year–and a ton of people in between.
While its audience is undoubtedly diverse, I would hazard a guess that the land skews towards families. The argument could be made that, as a whole, Walt Disney World does a better job of catering to this crowd than does Universal Orlando. In fairness, Universal has broadened its appeal for families with small children in the last few years–and there’s more to come between now and the opening of Epic Universe (and within that new park, outside of Super Nintendo World).
But the reputation still exists that Universal is the place for teenagers and thrill seekers, and Walt Disney World is more family-friendly. Accordingly, I would hazard a guess that many of the families planning 2025 trips to see Universal’s “new Nintendo park” will also include visits to “Disney World” (Magic Kingdom) and “Star Wars and toy park” (Disney’s Hollywood Studios). Definitely not more than they visit Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios Florida–convenience is huge, as are vacation packages–but possibly enough that at least those two parks (and maybe even EPCOT) don’t lose attendance at all in 2025.
I was there March 6-10 and the crowds were really not that bad. Thanks to your crowd calendar, I chose those dates over the second half of the month when the spring breakers would arrive, and it worked out!
We were there from 2-29 to 3-9 and it was very tolerable. Perhaps we were lucky, nut that is our go to time for spring trip.
Travel, overall is pretty much back to 2019 levels. It seems like everything is less today though. Fewer flights, smaller aircraft, fewer hotels (at least decent ones), no real additions to WDW (speaking of space, not rides per se), fewer dining choices, fewer employees overall (everywhere not just WDW). Credit use at record highs and record loans/withdrawls from 401k plans indicate generally people are borrowing against there future to keep living like it’s 2019. Don’t completely understand the whys here other than it seems like an addiction/denial by the general population of spending today and get it while you can. Keeping up with the Jones’s also in play. I know that doesn’t really answer why attendance has increased, other than it’s all in play.
Let’s be honest: many people you see at Disney have no business being there, financially speaking. They are going into debt to take a vacation which is financial lunacy.
You covered the negative side of household balance sheets, and that’s all fairly indisputable. Although I’d say the most outsized variable is debt-servicing costs. Interest rates on credit card and other debts are rising, making it even crazier to spend today and pay for it later.
However, there’s also the flip side of that: household assets and net worth are also at all-time highs for Americans–far outpacing liabilities. There are also a ton of people with mortgages locked-in at rates below 4% (and they’re also seeing that debt inflated-away!). It’s hardly all bad (or good) news.
On the international visitors note, we were just at WDW March 2-6 and it felt like every third family we passed was speaking French!
I’ve also noticed a lot more French guests!
I’m honestly not sure if it’s statistically significant, or just something that I’m noticing because: 1) it’s the one foreign language I can (kinda) understand; and 2) it’s so unexpected (to me) given stereotypes.
Also lots of British accents, but that’s hardly surprising. Orlando is basically “Little Liverpool.”
This is probably due to the fact that the first week of March is Spring Break in Quebec, Canada (which is mostly a French speaking province) and Florida and Disney are popular destinations for Quebecers.
Good article. Hopefully October everyone will stay away and it will be low crowds. Only thing I see wrong in the article is your saying inflation is easing. I don’t know where you live but that’s not the case where I live.
I’m going by this chart: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, and has come down to the ~3% range. It’s disinflation, which is not the same as deflation. There’s no going back to 2019 prices.
October is the 3rd busiest time at Disneyworld. The food & wine festival and Mickey’s not so scary Halloween party are huge draws.
So, does it look like this is trend is going to continue through the rest of the year?
I’d expect mid-April through early June, at the very least, to be busier than last year. Beyond that, I think it’s difficult to say. Disney has gotten more ‘efficient’ at pulling “levers” to lure people to the parks, but so much is dependent upon the broader economy.
With the new spring/summer ticket deals and some really good hotel discounts, I think this summer will stay busy.
I work adjacent to the airline industry. We were forecasting a 10 year recovery for air travel in 2020…feels so foolish now.
Great article, hope all is well with the family.
I have very clear and not-so-fond memories of those projections about travel demand. Started to wonder whether I should spend my time during lockdown studying for the Florida bar exam.
As it turns out, the only thing that has ‘prevented’ a full recovery to 2019 levels has been travel industry capacity.
@To, as a one-time lawyer (career-changer), I’m happy for you that you didn’t have to pull that particular “lever.” Studying for another bar exam….wince/shiver!!!
Honestly, I don’t even know if I could’ve done it. Once you’re that far removed from law school, there’s so much of the useless bar exam-style knowledge you forget and it’s been ages since I’ve studied for anything. Regardless, glad it didn’t come to that!
We just got back from our 4th trip this past Monday after arriving the previous Wednesday (we typically go every three years and drive down from Tennessee). We usually are fall trippers, so this was our first time going in the spring, We split our stay between Cornado and All Star Movies (both new for us, and Cornado is a definite return for us) and the resorts did not seem nearly as crowded as they usually are. The big indicator for us were the buses from the parks to the resorts and vice versa. Usually they are packed to the gills, but this trip we were able to board immediately and did not have to stand once. The parks were a different story. While wait times were not terrible for us, and we were able to use Genie+ and ILL without issue, it definitely did seem more crowded than what we have experienced in previous trips. My assumption based off the lower resort crowds was that it was a lot of the park crowds were residents taking advantage of the ticket deal that expired today. That’s just my impression. Thanks for your newsletter, Tom. I have used it for a lot of valuable information since I discovered it and consult it faithfully before every trip. Looking forward to our next trip in 2026!
It’s definitely disproportionately locals right now. I’m surprised that the hotels were that quiet, but not entirely. Early March is typically one of the slowest times for tourism. Between locals scrambling to use the tickets before that deal ends and early Spring Break, it looks like this last week has been a madhouse. Much worse than I expected, even given the elevated crowds in Jan-Feb!
The Derek Thompson of Disney blogging…excellent article
Flattering and high praise, but I’m not sure it’s true. I wish, though, so thanks!
I’d say the average person does not go to Disney every year. 2022 everyone went to Disney as Europe wasn’t totally open or at least super easy to do without at least some restrictions. 2023 EVERYONE went to Europe. Now they are back to doing Disney as they took a year off. I definitely subscribe to your accordion traffic jam analogy for the cause of the rise in crowds compared to last year.
I mean, the truly average person never goes to Disney. I assume you mean casual fans and middle class families with a degree of brand affinity, in which case, every 2-3 years is probably about right.
I’d also agree that–generally speaking–2022 was the year of Disney and 2023 was the year of international travel. But I also wonder just how much overlap there is between Disney families and international travelers. Definitely not EVERYONE! 😉
I am beginning to believe that with how often Disney is raising prices and how they are going to price out the middle class soon, everyone is rushing to Disney before they get priced out of it. That is why I feel they are really busy and beating expectations right now. Disney will never be cheaper than it is now so if you ever want to go, people are going. This will possibly be our last year because we are barely affording it with saving for almost 2 years for it.
There are definitely people to whom this would apply, but I disagree that they’re having a meaningful impact on attendance/crowds.
For every person who thinks this way, there’s probably another person who is sitting on the sidelines because they think the bottom is going to fall out on attendance in 2025 due to Epic Universe, and Disney will need to reduce prices/increase discounts.
Never thought about that aspect with the Universal Epic, that will definitely hit Disney hard, at least the first few months of the opening.
It’s unclear just how Epic Universe is going to affect Disney. People could schedule a Universal vacation instead of Disney, or work in a day or two at Universal on days they would have spent at a Disney park.
My personal prediction, for what its worth, is families that schedule a Florida vacation every 2-3 years will be tempted to check out Epic Universe and Disney will end up largely unaffected.