“Revenge Travel” at Disney World
Well, it’s another Halloween here in the Tainted Twenties. Everything is worse than ever now. And we’re mostly stuck around the house to prove it. Oh, and here’s something else that’s new. I just heard a new term today on the internet.
Fellow says, we’ve go something now called ‘revenge travel.’ Did you ever hear of that one? It sure describes my feelings. I spend all day Googling and fantasizing about a destination, and then turn right around and do the same thing with another place. And the information superhighway is crowded with other revengers doing the same thing!
SARAH: That’s what they call progress dear. FATHER TOM: Ha ha ha ha. I guess she’s right. But we do have Disney+. Gives you something to do while stuck at home. I kind of like it, you know? A guy named Baby Yoda gives us “all the feels” and then they have all these stars and wars. A lot of fluff, but it’s fun…
In this case, that trend is revenge travel. It took a while to get past the term’s idiotic name, which we both dislike and wish had a different name. (We’ve spent way too much time questioning why it’s such a hostile and awkward term.) Nevertheless, we think maybe there’s some truth to the idea and it’s worth discussing here.
In a nutshell, revenge travel is a flashy buzzword for amplified pent-up demand. It’s the idea that our national mood is a restless one; after feeling trapped in one spot for months, many Americans are ready to get away from home. In theory, this could bring back leisure tourism with a bang next year.
The idea is predicated on the concept of revenge spending, a related phenomenon that has involved spiking demand for consumer goods after similar periods of stagnation or low spending. This historical trend has been observed in the past, and is even occurring in other countries that have emerged from lockdown.
When it comes to travel, this pent-up demand of revenge travel is already playing out. In several countries that have emerged from stay at home orders, domestic tourism has surged. There have been new twists, with many staying closer to home and going by car or train rather than flying.
The has played out in the United States, albeit with some unique wrinkles. Demand has spiked for driving-distance, rural getaways, and places with fresh, outdoor air. Some U.S. National Parks and state parks have been overwhelmed with visitors seeking a respite from cities as they flee to the great outdoors.
RV sales and rentals are skyrocketing, with manufacturers struggling to keep up with new orders and Camping World’s stock climbing 35%. (Ironically, places like campgrounds and National Parks that evoke mental images of serenity are packed, whereas typically crowded places like Walt Disney World are veritable ghost towns.)
As of our latest update to this post, we’re also seeing an early form of revenge travel playing out at Walt Disney World. Thanksgiving week was the busiest we’ve seen Walt Disney World since before the closure, and by a significant margin. As has been widely covered, Disney recently increased park capacity from 25% to 35%, and all 4 parks were full to that reduced limit several days.
This is a far cry from what we experienced back in July and August (when this article was originally written), when the parks were ghost towns disproportionately attended by Floridians and Southerners within driving distance. In the months since, crowds have swelled, with many more tourists.
For the Thanksgiving holiday week, crowd levels were elevated despite many locals being blocked out and case numbers rising throughout the United States. Forward-looking projections for December show a similar story playing out, especially for the weeks of Christmas and New Year’s.
While this is likely only a small preview of what’s to come (since there are still several reasons people would avoid visiting right now), it’s a glimpse at what the future holds. Americans are fed up, craving normalcy, and ready for revenge (travel). We previously expressed some skepticism about the degree to which there would be pent-up demand or a surge of travel. Not anymore. We now firmly believe that this will be a significant phenomenon.
These trends make sense given where things presently stand in the United States, and the sentiment and frustration animating these decisions nevertheless resonates with us. We have cabin fever, or a version of it. We are fed up with our neighborhood, fed up with our house, and just wanting an escape.
We frequently daydream about traveling. Despite never really “getting” YouTube, we’ve started watching some vloggers who cover far flung places. We frequently have travel ambiance videos or beach webcams just playing in the background. We go through the motions of researching and planning trips we won’t take.
This is how we feel despite being fortunate enough to be able to visit Walt Disney World on occasion to decompress and relax. That has been a huge boost, with our mood and happiness improving considerably. This cabin fever, anxiety, thirst for revenge, or whatever you want to call it must be so much worse for those who have been more or less on lockdown since March.
The concept of “revenge travel” thus makes sense to us. Regardless of the underlying economic circumstances, it’s possible–even likely–that many Americans will want to travel in the new year after being denied the chance for much of the last year.
We’ve long been strong advocates of prioritizing traveling now rather than waiting until retirement. After seeing firsthand that, for some people, someday never comes a desire to live in the present was fueled. We suspect others will have a newfound sense of urgency in traveling after we collectively emerge out the other side of this.
That perspective is borne out by consumer sentiment research by a Harris Poll of residents of various states. The results show that as the crisis has intensified, the demand to get back to normal activities such as travel has increased. In fact, that trend is actually more pronounced in places with more severe outbreaks. From all of this, it’s pretty clear that revenge travel or amplified pent-up travel demand is a real thing.
First, to what destinations?
As discussed above, the places seeing early demand surges are rural–the great outdoors. That makes sense while we’re still in the midst of the health crisis. However, does that change once there’s a vaccine and things start returning to normal? Come Spring or Summer 2022 when there’s a greater feeling of safety, will people actually seek out crowds? After months of isolation, will Americans eschew more isolated destinations for more populous and social ones…like theme parks?
Second, what will be the impact of lingering effects or longer-lasting behavioral shifts?
Even within the context of revenge travel, it’s widely assumed that international travel will be much slower to return. Likewise, convention business and group events are not expected to come back any time soon–if ever. Could this mean that Walt Disney World park attendance and hotel occupancy rates will remain low even as domestic demand from individuals and families spikes?
Third, will Walt Disney World’s core audience feel an even greater sense of pent-up demand?
It’s no secret that Walt Disney World is a rite of passage vacation for many American families, even those who otherwise are not particularly into Disney. For this demographic, there is a “sweet spot” age range for their kids to visit Walt Disney World. After missing essentially one full year, will more of these families move their trips into 2022? Will the psychological scars of the past several months prompt a desire for a vacation destination with more escapism–perhaps one to a land of fantasy?
Finally, how will this urge to travel comport with an ongoing recession?
We’ve been on record for months saying that economic uncertainty, lingering unemployment, and the lagging recession will likely seriously dampen travel demand for the next year-plus as compared to pre-March levels. And we maintain that position. However, will Americans continue to ignore all of this? Could the isolation and sameness of the shutdown fuel an increased desire to prioritize travel and a change of scenery at all costs?
Or, could there be an increased desire to travel, but to budget-friendly destinations? Is it possible that the fear of missing out and desire to keep up with the Joneses be replaced with more modest and discreet displays of vacationing? Instead of trendy and hip, could visiting Walt Disney World become ostentatious and gauche? Could Universal’s aggressive approach post-reopening pull away part of Disney’s local audience?
These are all questions we cannot answer. There are even more variables at play, as this is a complex topic with a lot of moving parts. My economic outlook is fairly pessimistic, which I’ve reiterated consistently in the last several months (and even well before all of this). However, it’s looking more and more like I’ll be wrong on that. The economy might be sufficiently resilient–at least for Walt Disney World’s primary visitor demographics.
Ultimately, it’s now seeming likely that the best case assumptions about a vaccine, discounts, and the economy are exactly how things are going to play out. While I still don’t see a full recovery for Walt Disney World, it could come close. Crowds might pick up to 80% of last year’s levels by summer, which is not too shabby when looking back on our previous prognostications this spring. However, the projections for record-setting crowds in October for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary are totally out the window.
The concept of revenge travel has already proven true to some degree, and it could have an even greater impact on attendance next spring and beyond. Given that it pretty accurately encapsulates a lot of our personal sentiment towards travel, it felt like something worth sharing and discussing. To what extent this plays out at Walt Disney World remains to be seen, but revenge travel undoubtedly will have some impact on crowds at Walt Disney World.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise significantly come Summer 2022? Do you think they’ll be worse than normal due to pent-up demand or below average due to the economy and/or other factors? Planning any “revenge travel” of your own? Will you immediately book a trip, or wait until the economy recovers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Talk about pent-up travel desire. I want to travel to Disney so badly I can taste it! I have had my finger on the book a flight button 2 separate times in the last 2 weeks. But, there are 2 things (only) keeping me from booking.
I work outside of Pittsburgh in a nursing home and had to take off two weeks with a wrist fracture requiring covering by my partners. If I go to Disney and have to take the recommended two weeks to quarantine when I come back I’m pretty sure the people I work with will stab me.
Secondly my husband is receiving chemo for cancer, (doing quite well), and I almost had him talked into going till he looked at me and said laughingly, “you’re trying to kill me early aren’t you”? No honey. So that put the kibosh on a quick down and back.
We went to a local flea market today where mask compliance was at best 85-90%. We left.
I would feel safer at Disney right now.
Being currently stuck in the hell of a Texas summer (107 here today), with COVID numbers still on the rise in our area, your article rings all sorts of bells. I am SO TIRED of the sameness that I am occasionally tempted to throw caution to the wind and go somewhere, anywhere, no matter what. But “revenge travel”? Yeah…stupid name.
Thank you for the Carousel of Progress jokes. I died laughing.
must be losing my mind but at first glance i thought it was you on stage behind the skirted table stuck in the twilight zone,.. which was confirmed by the intro,.. perfect!
Love your photo of the tent with Mickey ears within! Your photos are always outstanding but this one made me LOL 🙂
I’m interested to see what Disney offers Canadians like myself. We had two trips in the works but have cancelled both. Canadians and other countries tourists are a HUGE source of revenue for all of Florida. Our border is close til end of September but that will likely be extended. Only time will tell what Disney will do to entice us back. But we are all staycationing in the great white north.
We’re not quite “white” yet. Give it another month. 😉
I do agree there’s a pent up demand building up for travel. At best the experts are predicting a 60% effectiveness on the Covid vaccine. The flu shot through the years has been rated at 45% effectiveness. 1/3 of the US population will not take the vaccine supposedly. So, you still have high risk going to an amusement park. Risk categories put amusement parks at 8 out of 10 for high risk to get the the virus. Flying is rated at a 7. Then, put economics into the equation and 2021 will not be a great year for Disney World. Hopefully, I’m wrong. Then, I heard Disney is expecting to take advantage of this so-called pent up demand to raise prices instead of offering deals like free dining. Combine this with a reduced park experience-no shows, no street entertainers, no parades, no fireworks, no character meet and greets, and reduced restaurant offerings and I just can’t see vacationers being so gullible to go to Disney World under these circumstances. There are too many factors to overcome including Union issues to expect a quick turnaround for Disney World. I do expect after the vaccine comes for Disney World to get better with attendance but normal is a few years away.
I’m selfishly hoping that your predictions are correct. I have a trip planned for May 2021 and I hope to enjoy smaller crowds. I have other hopes as well.
1. I hope ALL of the dining venues have reopened and that the former menus can be utilized. I can’t imagine going to the Hollywood Brown Derby and not ordering the Cobb Salad.
2. I hope that the parade and firework shows come back.
3. I hope that we can get upclose and personal with characters and princesses.
4. I hope that I don’t have to wear a mask. Let me say that during very real threat of infectious spread, I support the requirements that Disney and other private businesses have required. I just know that after I’ve visited a grocery and get in my car, I can’t wait to take my mask off and truly breathe again. I’m certain that spending a long day in one of the theme parks might be unbearable for me.
5. Of coarse none of these wishes can come true without a vaccine, more effective treatment options and far lower infectious spread. That is my biggest hope, dream and prayer.
I feel that many folks are going to hold off on returning to Disney World until they 1) feel safer from a Covid infection and 2) feel they can get the whole Disney experience when they come to Lake Buena Vista.
I hope that I’ve scheduled a trip in a sweet spot when everything has somewhat normalized after the pandemic but before most of the crowds return. I hope, I hope, I hope, I……..
I live in NY, and the “cabin fever and anxiety” you describe is very real. While our area is largely opened up, the covid-PTSD (not to take away from those who experience actual PTSD) is keeping many in the isolation mindset. No one wants to return to what we were. The thing I struggle with is the lack of a clear end to all of this. Yes, a vaccine will be available at some point. However many will not get it and I honestly would be hesitant to right away as well. We postponed our big family trip from this November to May 2021, and while I’m hopeful, I still feel detached from the trip in case it doesn’t happen. I guess this was sort of a ramble, but it’s just kind of how I’m feeling right now… 🙁
I am in the same boat as you. NJ is getting better but I am concerned about going to other locations that have numbers that we had or worse. I am keeping a positive mind set. We were supposed to go the beginning of Sept 2020 but we rescheduled when FL put the restriction out. Even though it has been removed. I rather be safe and wait longer. So now we are scheduled for next Sept 2021. Do I want to go earlier? Yes I do but I want to see how the numbers are before even planning anything else..
That intro is the best thing I’ve read on this blog. Ever. And I’ve been reading for years. We’re in the car and both laughed out loud several times at this. So, thanks for that!
I think the economic piece is going to be what balances the “revenge whatever” in the end. For example, we just spent a week at a state park cottage and the accommodations were incredible-two bedrooms, front and back porch, full kitchen , dining room, front and back porch for about $180/night. Add in the park’s beach and lake swimming plus a pool? It was heaven. The Ft. Wilderness cabins can’t touch that economically (for what, 400/night right now? We’d hoped to rent a cabin to do a resort only stay but spiking cases combined with rack rates kept us away). Granted, it’s not Disney so you’re not getting theme parks and Disney amenities but If money’s tight for people, I could see pushing Disney off even longer and definitely traveling, but to somewhere affordable. But who knows…
Tom, you missed a real opportunity there not photoshopping your face on to the CoP pic…and then photoshopping that same glorious mustache onto your photoshopped face. Such a shame.
It’s not too late…
I get this idea of “revenge” travel but agree the name is horrible. We are going on a beach house vacation tomorrow. I know I’m incredibly fortunate, but I’m not that excited. I think when we are there it will be good to have a change of pace and scenery though. Last night, my husband and I realized this is the longest we have gone without travel as a couple or family in many years. He and I were at WDW the weekend before in closed so it’s been five months.
A beach house vacation is probably my 5th choice after WDW (I’m actually good with August in Fl lol), a cruise, Costa Rica, or coastal CA. We are doing this trip because we can drive there, eat-in, and maintain distance. I’m not afraid of WDW travel now, but without deep discounts it doesn’t make sense for my family of five. As soon as Disney offers a room discount or free dining, I am booking a trip for July 2021.
Very thought-provoking article. Thanks for writing! However, I was distracted by the photo of a baby Yoda doll with a Starbucks drink. Is it just me, or does that baby Yoda look a lot like Statler (one of the Muppet old-guy hecklers)? Oh, how I miss the Muppets!
I think that is just supposed to be yoda, not the child from the Mandolorian but it does look alot more like the old guy from the Muppets.
Your intro cracked me up this morning!
Thank you for the intro! A little spot of sunshine on an otherwise terrible day here in the Tainted Twenties!
Interesting article. I could imagine a bit of an early surge of families who aren’t as concerned about lingering Covid issues having some saved up money going to Disney in 2021, but I don’t expect parity with prior years until 2022. I think people who would tend to travel like that will have almost Covid PTSD for a bit (but we also have incredibly short memories and will be eager to return to “normalcy”, especially if a vaccine is broadly available.)
Also just wanted to say you absolutely nailed the Carousel of Progress part! Well done!
Totally agree. I don’t see Disney bouncing back that much next year. Oh there will be people going but not at the max as what they had before. It will take time, be it a vaccine or just people feeling safe to travel. I know we moved our vacation from this Sept to next year. I can only hope things get better. I miss Disney and the excitement of the environment.
LOVE your opening!! I miss Carousel of Progress! We’ve moved our big family trip to *next* May, and cancelled our September trip. I hated doing it, but don’t like the idea of MCO. We passed up an opportunity to go down in early December…kind of taking a wait and see approach. I’m hoping there’s a vaccine by then, and the decorations will all be up but…what do you think, Tom? Will they do it at least for the AP holders in Florida?
I understand the impulse, but I’m not sure how it works, practically. Restaurants are falling like dominos, Congress hasn’t passed an extended unemployment package… Where will all the disposable income come from? After years of reading this blog and a couple of other well-known Disney FaceBook pages it seems to me, by and large, that the general demographic of Disney travel blog fans tends to skew wealthier, whiter and older than the general population, often giving the impression here that everyone is doing financially fine through this pandemic and that there will be a surge of diehard Disney devotees stampeding turnstiles Walmart-on-Black-Friday style the moment that travel is deemed safe. The reality is that a large percentage of the people reading and commenting here were already likely to visit Disney World in 2021. I’m not sure our responses will represent the world at large.
True…but let’s be honest, part of the economic recovery problem is political. I know we try to stay away from that nasty word, but expect we will see something happen by November if not sooner. It’s a shame that suffering Americans are the victims of bureaucracy; my hope is things get better for all Americans! We were doing well before this nasty virus intruded into our lives :(. If that’s the case, after awhile more Americans will return to Disney. The first thing we did after my husband got a job after a nasty 8 months of unemployment was plan a trip to Disney World. There are ways to save money, pay it off over time, and our family desperately NEEDED the relaxation, fun and recovery after dealing with so much stress.
Being pent up is as you have described. All we can do for now is daydream about when things return to ‘normal’ and hang in there for the duration. Taking long walks helps clear the mind. I am also a Floridian, so walks are either completed before 7am or taken after 7pm. Disney + is a good relief too. Thanks, Tom. Even your venting is good to hear. We are all in this together.
I’m from NY and optimistic we will be able to go next year.. however if masks are still required it’s a hard NO.. unfortunately..
We had to rebook our 2020 WDW and DCL combo trip to two separate trips in spring 2021 utilizing built in school breaks. Assuming of course the school calendar is not altered due to COVID. We are hopeful we can go. We are far more willing to adhere to mask guidelines during milder FL temps than we are during the crazy FL summer. Our desire to go is not one based on pent up energy, though. It’s more we want to take the vacation/s we planned AND PAID FOR! (Refunds were not an option…. we rented points for hotel stay and I thought I was being savvy is buying gift cards from Sams Club to pay for our cruise. I bought MANY gift cards over time to slowly pay off cruise. A refund is back to the original form of payment/s. Rebooking was way easier). My oldest graduates from high school next May. We’ve told her she can chose the destination for our annual family trip. Initially she was very excited and thinking about going abroad, like Japan or Africa, but now its become very disheartening to consider because so much is still unknown about what will be accessible.