“Revenge Travel” at Disney World
Well, it’s another Halloween here in the Tainted Twenties. Everything is worse than ever now. And we’re mostly stuck around the house to prove it. Oh, and here’s something else that’s new. I just heard a new term today on the internet.
Fellow says, we’ve go something now called ‘revenge travel.’ Did you ever hear of that one? It sure describes my feelings. I spend all day Googling and fantasizing about a destination, and then turn right around and do the same thing with another place. And the information superhighway is crowded with other revengers doing the same thing!
SARAH: That’s what they call progress dear. FATHER TOM: Ha ha ha ha. I guess she’s right. But we do have Disney+. Gives you something to do while stuck at home. I kind of like it, you know? A guy named Baby Yoda gives us “all the feels” and then they have all these stars and wars. A lot of fluff, but it’s fun…
In this case, that trend is revenge travel. It took a while to get past the term’s idiotic name, which we both dislike and wish had a different name. (We’ve spent way too much time questioning why it’s such a hostile and awkward term.) Nevertheless, we think maybe there’s some truth to the idea and it’s worth discussing here.
In a nutshell, revenge travel is a flashy buzzword for amplified pent-up demand. It’s the idea that our national mood is a restless one; after feeling trapped in one spot for months, many Americans are ready to get away from home. In theory, this could bring back leisure tourism with a bang next year.
The idea is predicated on the concept of revenge spending, a related phenomenon that has involved spiking demand for consumer goods after similar periods of stagnation or low spending. This historical trend has been observed in the past, and is even occurring in other countries that have emerged from lockdown.
When it comes to travel, this pent-up demand of revenge travel is already playing out. In several countries that have emerged from stay at home orders, domestic tourism has surged. There have been new twists, with many staying closer to home and going by car or train rather than flying.
The has played out in the United States, albeit with some unique wrinkles. Demand has spiked for driving-distance, rural getaways, and places with fresh, outdoor air. Some U.S. National Parks and state parks have been overwhelmed with visitors seeking a respite from cities as they flee to the great outdoors.
RV sales and rentals are skyrocketing, with manufacturers struggling to keep up with new orders and Camping World’s stock climbing 35%. (Ironically, places like campgrounds and National Parks that evoke mental images of serenity are packed, whereas typically crowded places like Walt Disney World are veritable ghost towns.)
As of our latest update to this post, we’re also seeing an early form of revenge travel playing out at Walt Disney World. Thanksgiving week was the busiest we’ve seen Walt Disney World since before the closure, and by a significant margin. As has been widely covered, Disney recently increased park capacity from 25% to 35%, and all 4 parks were full to that reduced limit several days.
This is a far cry from what we experienced back in July and August (when this article was originally written), when the parks were ghost towns disproportionately attended by Floridians and Southerners within driving distance. In the months since, crowds have swelled, with many more tourists.
For the Thanksgiving holiday week, crowd levels were elevated despite many locals being blocked out and case numbers rising throughout the United States. Forward-looking projections for December show a similar story playing out, especially for the weeks of Christmas and New Year’s.
While this is likely only a small preview of what’s to come (since there are still several reasons people would avoid visiting right now), it’s a glimpse at what the future holds. Americans are fed up, craving normalcy, and ready for revenge (travel). We previously expressed some skepticism about the degree to which there would be pent-up demand or a surge of travel. Not anymore. We now firmly believe that this will be a significant phenomenon.
These trends make sense given where things presently stand in the United States, and the sentiment and frustration animating these decisions nevertheless resonates with us. We have cabin fever, or a version of it. We are fed up with our neighborhood, fed up with our house, and just wanting an escape.
We frequently daydream about traveling. Despite never really “getting” YouTube, we’ve started watching some vloggers who cover far flung places. We frequently have travel ambiance videos or beach webcams just playing in the background. We go through the motions of researching and planning trips we won’t take.
This is how we feel despite being fortunate enough to be able to visit Walt Disney World on occasion to decompress and relax. That has been a huge boost, with our mood and happiness improving considerably. This cabin fever, anxiety, thirst for revenge, or whatever you want to call it must be so much worse for those who have been more or less on lockdown since March.
The concept of “revenge travel” thus makes sense to us. Regardless of the underlying economic circumstances, it’s possible–even likely–that many Americans will want to travel in the new year after being denied the chance for much of the last year.
We’ve long been strong advocates of prioritizing traveling now rather than waiting until retirement. After seeing firsthand that, for some people, someday never comes a desire to live in the present was fueled. We suspect others will have a newfound sense of urgency in traveling after we collectively emerge out the other side of this.
That perspective is borne out by consumer sentiment research by a Harris Poll of residents of various states. The results show that as the crisis has intensified, the demand to get back to normal activities such as travel has increased. In fact, that trend is actually more pronounced in places with more severe outbreaks. From all of this, it’s pretty clear that revenge travel or amplified pent-up travel demand is a real thing.
First, to what destinations?
As discussed above, the places seeing early demand surges are rural–the great outdoors. That makes sense while we’re still in the midst of the health crisis. However, does that change once there’s a vaccine and things start returning to normal? Come Spring or Summer 2022 when there’s a greater feeling of safety, will people actually seek out crowds? After months of isolation, will Americans eschew more isolated destinations for more populous and social ones…like theme parks?
Second, what will be the impact of lingering effects or longer-lasting behavioral shifts?
Even within the context of revenge travel, it’s widely assumed that international travel will be much slower to return. Likewise, convention business and group events are not expected to come back any time soon–if ever. Could this mean that Walt Disney World park attendance and hotel occupancy rates will remain low even as domestic demand from individuals and families spikes?
Third, will Walt Disney World’s core audience feel an even greater sense of pent-up demand?
It’s no secret that Walt Disney World is a rite of passage vacation for many American families, even those who otherwise are not particularly into Disney. For this demographic, there is a “sweet spot” age range for their kids to visit Walt Disney World. After missing essentially one full year, will more of these families move their trips into 2022? Will the psychological scars of the past several months prompt a desire for a vacation destination with more escapism–perhaps one to a land of fantasy?
Finally, how will this urge to travel comport with an ongoing recession?
We’ve been on record for months saying that economic uncertainty, lingering unemployment, and the lagging recession will likely seriously dampen travel demand for the next year-plus as compared to pre-March levels. And we maintain that position. However, will Americans continue to ignore all of this? Could the isolation and sameness of the shutdown fuel an increased desire to prioritize travel and a change of scenery at all costs?
Or, could there be an increased desire to travel, but to budget-friendly destinations? Is it possible that the fear of missing out and desire to keep up with the Joneses be replaced with more modest and discreet displays of vacationing? Instead of trendy and hip, could visiting Walt Disney World become ostentatious and gauche? Could Universal’s aggressive approach post-reopening pull away part of Disney’s local audience?
These are all questions we cannot answer. There are even more variables at play, as this is a complex topic with a lot of moving parts. My economic outlook is fairly pessimistic, which I’ve reiterated consistently in the last several months (and even well before all of this). However, it’s looking more and more like I’ll be wrong on that. The economy might be sufficiently resilient–at least for Walt Disney World’s primary visitor demographics.
Ultimately, it’s now seeming likely that the best case assumptions about a vaccine, discounts, and the economy are exactly how things are going to play out. While I still don’t see a full recovery for Walt Disney World, it could come close. Crowds might pick up to 80% of last year’s levels by summer, which is not too shabby when looking back on our previous prognostications this spring. However, the projections for record-setting crowds in October for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary are totally out the window.
The concept of revenge travel has already proven true to some degree, and it could have an even greater impact on attendance next spring and beyond. Given that it pretty accurately encapsulates a lot of our personal sentiment towards travel, it felt like something worth sharing and discussing. To what extent this plays out at Walt Disney World remains to be seen, but revenge travel undoubtedly will have some impact on crowds at Walt Disney World.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise significantly come Summer 2022? Do you think they’ll be worse than normal due to pent-up demand or below average due to the economy and/or other factors? Planning any “revenge travel” of your own? Will you immediately book a trip, or wait until the economy recovers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I did a long driving trip around the National Parks this June– right at a time when it seemed the pandemic was coming to an end, before the second surge started building up, so it was a time when people might have been doing some “revenge travel” before deciding they had to wait longer. My own trip was planned a year in advance, but I did meet a lot of families who’d made last-minute plans so it could be a supporting example of the revenge travel idea (although they tended to say it was because every other summer activity their kids might have done had been cancelled).
As your article says, it’s hard to know how patterns of travel to outdoor areas will relate to travel to theme parks or other crowded venues. I can only say my National Parks experience suggested travel might rebound fast.
If I was Aladdin with the Genie waiting for my wishes (and could only wish for Disney-travel-related things) I’d wish for visitors to rebound enough for Disney to fully reopen and schedule a full “go big” 50th anniversary celebration, while still remaining low by pre-Covid standards. That way my planned 50th anniversary trip would hit the perfect sweet spot!
So I’m just finishing up four days at the parks – I’m not an annual passholder, not a Florida resident, just an out-of-towner who wanted to visit while the crowds are low. We had a great time, and felt very safe. However, if Disney doesn’t bring fastpass back soon (or some sort of virtual queue system), spring of 2021 will be a nightmare as far as wait times. I enjoyed the “uncrowded” parks, but the lines were incredibly long. I realize I’m spoiled with fastpass and knowing how to score those extra same-day ones, but I’m just not used to waiting in lines that average 30 minutes. Over and over and over again… It was so frustrating! I realize also that a lot of the wait times increase because the cast members are cleaning the ride vehicles, which I do appreciate. But the parks are only going to get more and more crowded as people begin to travel more. And the lines will get longer and longer while Disney is steadily cutting back lark hours. They really need to bring back the fastpass system or there’s not really much of a reason to visit in the near future!
Tom, I get on Pinterest, many Disney Bloggers are saying hotels are already booked full for next year. I know this cannot be true, th hotels are not all opened yet. I feel like travel agents are trying to make us panic about getting a reservation. I am so glad I read your posts, I know what they are saying can’t be true.
My husband and I would like to go to WDW as soon as we get a vaccination!
Hi Tom great post! Once again you hit the nail on the head.
Last year was a fluke for me- I was lucky enough to have a Premier pass for both coasts. And it was amazing- even if it was over the top. I spent 5 weeks at WDW and even more at my “home” parks in CA. Now I’m so thankful that happened.
Fireworks, parades, fantastic hotel stays, and allergy friendly dining like nowhere else in the world. So many adventures with friends. And even got my grandsons and son-in-law on their first trip WDW visit ever. (We stayed at BWV in December- to my daughters delight! They live overseas so who knows when we will all even be in the same country again?)
Who knows when Happily Ever After at MK or Counter Service at Napa Rose will safely return? (My two “must do’s” every chance I had). My “revenge travel” list is soooo long now! And I’m nervously watching the DVC points pool “problem”. But at least my memories are helping to keep me warm.
The small beach town where I live has fallen victim to “revenge travel.” Everybody decided that a beach vacation was essential this summer. We went from a handful of cases in April to having hundreds a day now. Our ERs are over full, critical patients have to be shipped to other hospitals in the state, sometimes hours away. I had one patient spend 4 days in the ER before he got a bed. Now we are in a “hot spot” and newspapers in New York tell people not to visit us. Oh, the irony.
Anyways, I’m totally ready to travel too. Especially since COVID was brought to our doorstep and is inescapable at this point.
Count us among those who have done a serious reverse course in travel plans for the future – our previously involved timeshares in exotic locations, and leveraging credit card points and miles to take luxury vacations on a budget – I booked us round trip first class airfare to Hawaii, and 16 nights in two hotels entirely on points last year, plus a week in our timeshare, for instance. Our plans over then next 5 to 7 years included a return to Hawaii, plus a European tour, trips to New Zealand, Australia, Israel, and all the Disney parks around the world. Not gonna happen now, maybe ever. Hawaii will, for sure, and Disneyland CA if CA ever returns to a state of sanity, but international travel is off the table for quite some time, and we’re not spring chickens.
So for now, we’re hitting the road to see the sights in the US, with a national park tour in planning stages already. We bought a two year old 5th wheel, and a truck to haul it – yes, there will be Fort Wilderness stays – but we intend now to spend as much time on the road as we can. Both our jobs can be done remotely – which is a BIG factor in this decision. There is even the possibility that we will make our home in the RV and do that full time.
Revenge? Nah … just making the best of the new abnormal, much of which I do not believe is going to be temporary.
*the future — WHICH previously involved*
If only my brains and fingers could agree on what I am saying …
Just what do you mean by “state of sanity” when referring to California? Are states that attempt nothing to protect those who reside there “sane.” I stopped reading this blog because of insane comments like this. Lissa, you’re also pretentious and arrogant.
@Maynerd
Wow. Chill out. The whole friggin world is in a state of insanity right now. California just more so because of some rather odious and draconian measures taken that have nothing to do with keeping anyone safe.
Tom, Perhaps you have already seen this note from Disney and maybe mentioned it in one of your past posts, but I find it interesting for folks making new Disney resort reservations for 2021. Disney is no longer going to provide complementary MagicBands to resort guests with new reservations starting January 2021.
“Please note: Starting in 2021, we plan to unveil an innovative new offering as part of the My Disney Experience app that will bring features of a MagicBand to your smart devices. Guests staying at Disney Resort hotels with an arrival date through December 31, 2020 will continue to receive complimentary MagicBands. With the new My Disney Experience offering, MagicBands will no longer be provided on a complimentary basis with new reservations for Disney Resort hotel Guests with arrivals beginning January 1, 2021 and beyond.”
That introduction of yours……so perfect!!!!
Imagine if Sarah’s name wasn’t Sarah?? That intro would have fallen so flat 🙂
Count my husband and I in as “revenge travelers”. We call it having fun without disney until they get back to “normal”. We are taking several trips next year. We will be driving to National and State Parks close to us. There are so many beautiful ones within driving distance. We are also taking a cross country driving trip to California. If disneyland is open then, and let’s all hope so!, we will spend a day or 2 there while traveling up the coast. We have a driving trip tentatively planned to visit relatives in Tennessee depending on the other trips.
So, we are finding out that there are many wonderful outdoors type vacation destinations in our country, and even close by. I don’t know if we would have done this if WDW was running at it’s normal existence.
I imagine there are alot of other people doing the same thing.
Tom, I like the intro very much. But I was wondering why you made no mention of the Pink elephant in the travel plans room. Namely, state by state quarantine restrictions. One of my daughters was very disappointed that she could not make 2021 WDW plans at the Monorail hotel she wanted. Despite putting in a pool this summer, she can’t wait to start planning her next trip to WDW. Is it and addiction we have or just a sickness?
Revenge travel totally makes sense, i agree there could have been a better name for it. Although I am feeling quite ticked off about missing our planned trip. Your intro was perfect, i could hear ‘fathers’ voice in my head.
Me too! Me too! I could also here “father’s” voice in my head! Very cool and creative, Tom !! Loved it! 🙂
Best introduction you’ve ever written
The introduction, though
I for one am not interested in Disney World getting back to “normal” pre-pandemic crowd levels. Ever. Sure, the stockholders like it, but the wait-times, 180-day reservations, fast pass+, and the amount of time and effort put into avoiding crowds makes me wonder why in the world anyone would want Disney World’s attendance to return to that!?! Anyone that visited in the 90s may recall a more relaxed and pleasant experience. With these wonderfully reduced crowds, I think Disney could still put on a pretty good show and make a fair profit… I’m hoping for 75% of pre-covid crowds at max.
I’ve done two trips from Orlando lately, Longwood Gardens near Philadelphia for their Sumatra Titan Arum, and Newport Beach, California (home of a weird wave, the Wedge). There’s an excellent chance of Bali for Easter, assuming covid-19 has calmed down and US travelers can get there.
Universal is shutting down two of their hotels. I suspect tourism recovery will take years.
I should have mentioned in my earlier post that I too loved your intro. Let’s just hope that soon there really will be a “great big beautiful tomorrow!”
Hadn’t heard of the term “revenge travel” before and I absolutely can’t wrap my brain around the term because it makes no sense (and yes, I know you didn’t come up with it, you merely resorted it). Personally, I’d call it “rebound travel,” but that’s just me.
I don’t know if we’ll just get used to it and accept more risk, or if an effective vaccine will be created (don’t have high hopes for that… there’s still no vaccine for AIDS or even the common cold), or if Covid-19 will mysteriously disappear as SARS did, but once there’s some type of normalcy restored I do anticipate a crazy uptick in travel. I also anticipate jumps in prices for transportation, lodging and admission prices as hospitality and entertainment providers take advantage of the demand and try to make up for a small bit of the revenue they didn’t bring in this year. Disney’s prices are already pretty ridiculous, so we’ll have to take a look at what the price fallout is after all this before we decide if we’ll be going back in the future.
Like another poster noted, one of the most painful aspects of this is not having a clear end to the situation. If we all knew that things would return to normalcy on December 31, 2020 or July 1, 2021, I think everyone’s emotional state would be much improved. If we could lock in prices, freely make reservations that we didn’t think would be cancelled (and that we wouldn’t want to cancel), we’d have something more definite to look forward to. I’m big on countdowns to vacations and building up anticipation and excitement. We have an Alaskan cruisetour booked for August 2021, but unlike our usual cruise/vacation countdowns, it’s not giving me the usual excitement because I feel like it’s maybe a 50/50 chance that it will actually happen. I know that there are worse things than not being able to count on a vacation… we consider ourselves very fortunate to still have our jobs and that they were telecommuting jobs to begin with and so we’ve had very little impact except in the socialization, travel and vacation aspects of our lives. Others we know have lost their jobs and others own businesses that are in serious jeopardy of having to shut down permanently. I try to remember to keep it in perspective when complaining about our “vacation hardships.”
“Rebound travel” would make so much more sense. “Revenge”? On whom? Why the negative, angry connotation? I nominate your term “rebound travel” as the new term. Now to convince the internet . . .
“Rebound travel” is what I personally decided to call it too!
As a person who retired at age 55 in February with the express purpose of traveling before I’m too old to enjoy it, you better believe I’m ready for some revenge travel, when it’s safe. Cancelled two big trips this year. Also, â¤ï¸ your intro!
I’m in your exact same situation!
That is the best introduction in the history of introductions. It gave me all the feels
I think Disney needs to take a financial risk to benefit from revenge travel, and I’m not sure Iger will do that. Doesn’t seem probable, but would be a genius move, even if they did raise prices. Bring some things back, do some new things…but, of course, some of this may be effected by government rules. I think many of us are starting to feel oppressed and somewhat resentful of this intrusion. I hope this takes root and hold over fear, because we as humans, suffer in more ways than one. We need to enjoy the outdoors, we need vacations, we need hope and new happy experiences! Mental health and economic health are important, too. And they are on the decline. Yes, the virus can be serious, but statically the death rates are not overwhelming and hopefully continue to decline. That’s not the belittle suffering, just put it in perspective. I do think 2021 will bring revenge travel, but you are right in that it may take a few years to get back to normal :(. I hope I’m wrong and Disney hits it out of the park.