“Revenge Travel” at Disney World
Well, it’s another Halloween here in the Tainted Twenties. Everything is worse than ever now. And we’re mostly stuck around the house to prove it. Oh, and here’s something else that’s new. I just heard a new term today on the internet.
Fellow says, we’ve go something now called ‘revenge travel.’ Did you ever hear of that one? It sure describes my feelings. I spend all day Googling and fantasizing about a destination, and then turn right around and do the same thing with another place. And the information superhighway is crowded with other revengers doing the same thing!
SARAH: That’s what they call progress dear. FATHER TOM: Ha ha ha ha. I guess she’s right. But we do have Disney+. Gives you something to do while stuck at home. I kind of like it, you know? A guy named Baby Yoda gives us “all the feels” and then they have all these stars and wars. A lot of fluff, but it’s fun…
In this case, that trend is revenge travel. It took a while to get past the term’s idiotic name, which we both dislike and wish had a different name. (We’ve spent way too much time questioning why it’s such a hostile and awkward term.) Nevertheless, we think maybe there’s some truth to the idea and it’s worth discussing here.
In a nutshell, revenge travel is a flashy buzzword for amplified pent-up demand. It’s the idea that our national mood is a restless one; after feeling trapped in one spot for months, many Americans are ready to get away from home. In theory, this could bring back leisure tourism with a bang next year.
The idea is predicated on the concept of revenge spending, a related phenomenon that has involved spiking demand for consumer goods after similar periods of stagnation or low spending. This historical trend has been observed in the past, and is even occurring in other countries that have emerged from lockdown.
When it comes to travel, this pent-up demand of revenge travel is already playing out. In several countries that have emerged from stay at home orders, domestic tourism has surged. There have been new twists, with many staying closer to home and going by car or train rather than flying.
The has played out in the United States, albeit with some unique wrinkles. Demand has spiked for driving-distance, rural getaways, and places with fresh, outdoor air. Some U.S. National Parks and state parks have been overwhelmed with visitors seeking a respite from cities as they flee to the great outdoors.
RV sales and rentals are skyrocketing, with manufacturers struggling to keep up with new orders and Camping World’s stock climbing 35%. (Ironically, places like campgrounds and National Parks that evoke mental images of serenity are packed, whereas typically crowded places like Walt Disney World are veritable ghost towns.)
As of our latest update to this post, we’re also seeing an early form of revenge travel playing out at Walt Disney World. Thanksgiving week was the busiest we’ve seen Walt Disney World since before the closure, and by a significant margin. As has been widely covered, Disney recently increased park capacity from 25% to 35%, and all 4 parks were full to that reduced limit several days.
This is a far cry from what we experienced back in July and August (when this article was originally written), when the parks were ghost towns disproportionately attended by Floridians and Southerners within driving distance. In the months since, crowds have swelled, with many more tourists.
For the Thanksgiving holiday week, crowd levels were elevated despite many locals being blocked out and case numbers rising throughout the United States. Forward-looking projections for December show a similar story playing out, especially for the weeks of Christmas and New Year’s.
While this is likely only a small preview of what’s to come (since there are still several reasons people would avoid visiting right now), it’s a glimpse at what the future holds. Americans are fed up, craving normalcy, and ready for revenge (travel). We previously expressed some skepticism about the degree to which there would be pent-up demand or a surge of travel. Not anymore. We now firmly believe that this will be a significant phenomenon.
These trends make sense given where things presently stand in the United States, and the sentiment and frustration animating these decisions nevertheless resonates with us. We have cabin fever, or a version of it. We are fed up with our neighborhood, fed up with our house, and just wanting an escape.
We frequently daydream about traveling. Despite never really “getting” YouTube, we’ve started watching some vloggers who cover far flung places. We frequently have travel ambiance videos or beach webcams just playing in the background. We go through the motions of researching and planning trips we won’t take.
This is how we feel despite being fortunate enough to be able to visit Walt Disney World on occasion to decompress and relax. That has been a huge boost, with our mood and happiness improving considerably. This cabin fever, anxiety, thirst for revenge, or whatever you want to call it must be so much worse for those who have been more or less on lockdown since March.
The concept of “revenge travel” thus makes sense to us. Regardless of the underlying economic circumstances, it’s possible–even likely–that many Americans will want to travel in the new year after being denied the chance for much of the last year.
We’ve long been strong advocates of prioritizing traveling now rather than waiting until retirement. After seeing firsthand that, for some people, someday never comes a desire to live in the present was fueled. We suspect others will have a newfound sense of urgency in traveling after we collectively emerge out the other side of this.
That perspective is borne out by consumer sentiment research by a Harris Poll of residents of various states. The results show that as the crisis has intensified, the demand to get back to normal activities such as travel has increased. In fact, that trend is actually more pronounced in places with more severe outbreaks. From all of this, it’s pretty clear that revenge travel or amplified pent-up travel demand is a real thing.
First, to what destinations?
As discussed above, the places seeing early demand surges are rural–the great outdoors. That makes sense while we’re still in the midst of the health crisis. However, does that change once there’s a vaccine and things start returning to normal? Come Spring or Summer 2022 when there’s a greater feeling of safety, will people actually seek out crowds? After months of isolation, will Americans eschew more isolated destinations for more populous and social ones…like theme parks?
Second, what will be the impact of lingering effects or longer-lasting behavioral shifts?
Even within the context of revenge travel, it’s widely assumed that international travel will be much slower to return. Likewise, convention business and group events are not expected to come back any time soon–if ever. Could this mean that Walt Disney World park attendance and hotel occupancy rates will remain low even as domestic demand from individuals and families spikes?
Third, will Walt Disney World’s core audience feel an even greater sense of pent-up demand?
It’s no secret that Walt Disney World is a rite of passage vacation for many American families, even those who otherwise are not particularly into Disney. For this demographic, there is a “sweet spot” age range for their kids to visit Walt Disney World. After missing essentially one full year, will more of these families move their trips into 2022? Will the psychological scars of the past several months prompt a desire for a vacation destination with more escapism–perhaps one to a land of fantasy?
Finally, how will this urge to travel comport with an ongoing recession?
We’ve been on record for months saying that economic uncertainty, lingering unemployment, and the lagging recession will likely seriously dampen travel demand for the next year-plus as compared to pre-March levels. And we maintain that position. However, will Americans continue to ignore all of this? Could the isolation and sameness of the shutdown fuel an increased desire to prioritize travel and a change of scenery at all costs?
Or, could there be an increased desire to travel, but to budget-friendly destinations? Is it possible that the fear of missing out and desire to keep up with the Joneses be replaced with more modest and discreet displays of vacationing? Instead of trendy and hip, could visiting Walt Disney World become ostentatious and gauche? Could Universal’s aggressive approach post-reopening pull away part of Disney’s local audience?
These are all questions we cannot answer. There are even more variables at play, as this is a complex topic with a lot of moving parts. My economic outlook is fairly pessimistic, which I’ve reiterated consistently in the last several months (and even well before all of this). However, it’s looking more and more like I’ll be wrong on that. The economy might be sufficiently resilient–at least for Walt Disney World’s primary visitor demographics.
Ultimately, it’s now seeming likely that the best case assumptions about a vaccine, discounts, and the economy are exactly how things are going to play out. While I still don’t see a full recovery for Walt Disney World, it could come close. Crowds might pick up to 80% of last year’s levels by summer, which is not too shabby when looking back on our previous prognostications this spring. However, the projections for record-setting crowds in October for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary are totally out the window.
The concept of revenge travel has already proven true to some degree, and it could have an even greater impact on attendance next spring and beyond. Given that it pretty accurately encapsulates a lot of our personal sentiment towards travel, it felt like something worth sharing and discussing. To what extent this plays out at Walt Disney World remains to be seen, but revenge travel undoubtedly will have some impact on crowds at Walt Disney World.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise significantly come Summer 2022? Do you think they’ll be worse than normal due to pent-up demand or below average due to the economy and/or other factors? Planning any “revenge travel” of your own? Will you immediately book a trip, or wait until the economy recovers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Well, it’s another Halloween here in the Tainted Twenties. Everything is worse than ever now. And we’re mostly stuck around the house to prove it. Oh, and here’s something else that’s new. I just heard a new term today on the internet.
Who would not want to Get an excuse to visit Disney World? Its lovers are present in every age group and It would really an Amazing Experience for the People making their debut at Disney World.
See You There
Cheers
It’s getting down to the wire to go or reschedule our end of December/first of January trip. Very difficult decision. Logically, probably should not risk it as predictions indicate we’re going to see a monstrous surge in covid this winter. A lot can change in the next 2 – 3 weeks, including increased travel restrictions and shut-downs. But reading on the Disney FB group pages, ppl are saying “Just go, it’s great, wear your mask and all’s well.” IDK? I mean we have to fly from Oklahoma and Southwest has no nonstop for Orlando so it includes a plane change in St Louis, amping the exposure risk….And I understand the cabin fever and desire to just go and be as safe as possible, taking our chances. But what’s it worth to roll the dice? Arrrrrgh!!!!
if you are questioning or uncomfortable, don’t go. You will be happier with your decision if you follow your feelings!
The more I think about “revenge” spending, the less it makes sense. Isn’t the term really just capturing the fact that people might be waiting to spend the money that they would have spent in a normal year, but haven’t had the chance to do so during Covid? How is it “revenge” if all you’re really doing is taking your postponed 2020 vacations in 2021? Where is all the additional funding supposed to be coming from for some kind of out-of-character revenge spending? People will still be restricted by realities such as limited vacation time. Case in point, I really didn’t bother to buy new clothes for my kids through the spring and summer, as my state was pretty well shut down, and we weren’t going anywhere. Come October, I realized that my kids were popping out of all their shirts and pants. I dropped a hefty sum replacing most of their too-small clothes with clothes that fit. This was not an emotionally fueled extravaganza, though it did feel decadent to spend so much at once. All that had happened was I spent exactly the same amount of money that I would normally have spent if I were frequenting stores on a regular basis and swapping out the kids’ clothes over time. I suppose traveling to a theme park during the worst health crisis in living memory does require emotional decision making to override a fact-based risk analysis, but the crowd levels are still well below 2019. If a bunch of people choose to reschedule their 2020 WDW trips in 2021, when health risks are likely to be lower and entertainment may be restored, that just sounds like prudent planning.
I think to some extent it is just pent-up demand.
However, I also think there’s a revenge component based on money some people saved by spending more time at home this year (I know several people, for example, who have spent far less money on Starbucks), and a desire to make up for lost time, so to speak. Even those who have not realized savings by being at home more can always finance or put trips on credit cards.
Fair points, Tom. I think my perspective may be skewed by the fact that most of my close friends and family work in the restaurant, hospitality and entertainment industries. A lot of them are struggling to keep afloat, and 2020 hasn’t presented opportunites to save their former Starbucks budgets, etc… My husband and I have been lucky enough to maintain our income this year, but seeing our loved ones struggle has probably made us less likely to take financial risks in the next couple of years.
I think part of it is people that go to Disney every year or take some sort of vacation yearly. If you budget X for vacation each year and then don’t take that 2020 trip, you now have 2X for 2021. That could mean longer trips, going twice in the year instead of once, or prioritizing Disney over other more affordable destinations because you have the money right now. I think Tom makes an excellent point too about the economic crisis not affecting Disney’s demographics quite as much. Granted, I know a lot of Disney fans, but I think a lot of those stimulus checks given to people who have been able to keep their jobs through all of this are being used or saved for travel.
We were also allowed to roll over a certain number of vacation days this year which we normally can’t do, so I have more vacation time than usual for 2021.
We are seriously discounting the “done with this” factor in this country.
I’m convinced you have 20% that truly wonder if they’ll ever leave the house again, 20% that think it’s no big deal right now, and then 60% that are just trying to play by the rules as much as they can while still enjoying slivers of life that absolutely cannot wait to be let back out in the wild. Much of that 60% aren’t doing anything because they’re not allowed to, not because they’re stricken with fear. I’m in that 60%. If I weren’t afraid of getting stuck at an airport hotel because the kid popped a fever before boarding the plane and have that little voice that says we “shouldn’t” I’d go now. I’m not scared of traveling or the parks. Once the major inconveniences pass we’re going. Oct 2021.
Judging by Thanksgiving flight numbers, I’d say a huge segment of the country is “done with this.” The ‘never leave the house’ segment is getting increasingly smaller, and probably most active when it comes to shaming others on social media.
Within that “done with this” group, I suspect there are more or less the two groups you describe.
Love, love , love the introduction! Excellent taste indeed!
The mid-late 2021 outlook for Disney crowds face two opposite factors:
1 — More domestic booking, due to “revenge travel” and also due to less *international* travel for Americans. International travel takes more advance planning, and so much uncertainty about future travel restrictions. It makes sense for people to put off their trip to Italy for another year, while staying domestic.
2 — For the exact same reason that Americans will stay domestic — so will people from other countries. During normal operations, a fairly significant portion of guests are international. I’d expect a steep decline in international travelers until 2022.
So will a domestic surge make up for an international loss?
That’s the question.
@Adam, the funny thing is that I always used to complain that our Disney World trips took so much more advanced planning that our international trips. Those 180-day ADRs kept us on our toes, whereas a good deal on airfare could dictate when and where we’d visit in Europe. Unfortunately, the many international travel restrictions in place against US residents render the debate moot. Until US residents are allowed to cross those borders, alternatives to domestic travel will be extremely limited.
I don’t think the domestic surge would makeup for it simply because going to Disney is a big cost. Regional travel will boom.
You’ll still have way more people go than I think analysts expect but it won’t be circa 2019. Although 60% of whatever 2019 was wouldn’t surprise me. I’ve seen people saying they’ll be lucky to get 30% back, which I think is a serious underestimate.
Great points from both of you. More or less agree with this commentary.
We haven’t heard any projections from analysts recently, but I suspect they’d all revise their numbers upwards based on trends already starting to be observable. I’d also agree that 2021 won’t be as good as 2019, but I think 60% is also a significant under-estimate at this point–unless they are constrained by physical distancing.
I won’t return to WDW without Fastpass +, but I could see first-time visitors not knowing any better, and locals not caring. It’s too expensive a trip to spend the whole day waiting in lines, and I have mastered the FP+ system even around the holidays. So, next year will be our first Universal trip, with Express passes. I would really love to go to Osaka and take the kids to Universal Japan for Super Nintendo Land, coupled with a trip to Kyoto during cherry blossom season, but given that Japan isn’t reopening until early April and will likely have mandatory quarantine when they do, that’s a plane (and another plane, and a train) too far for next year.
Tom, this speaks to me in volumes. I was dramatically nodding my head as I was reading. The need to get out of this house is huge for me and I want fun vacation experiences! We’re booked for spring break at WDW, I have all my fingers and toes crossed we can make it happen. My husband is a skeptic and doesn’t want to take any risks. Hopefully the vaccine will ease some concern. We aren’t a devoted Disney family (my husband’s fault), this will be our kids’ first trip at ages 7 and 9, so it’s time!
I am also from North Alabama! We went last week of January last year (pre-Covid world obviously) but it was great! Crowds were bigger than I expected but still much lower than they had been at other times. I would assume 2021 would be even better.
Interesting read – very much enjoyed it! Excited for our 7 day WDW ‘revenge travel’ in 3 weeks!! Thankful we live in Texas and don’t have some of the awful restrictions we hear others having to deal with. 🙁 We took the advice of one of your readers in your “off site/on site” wrote up and saved $4.5K (we let go of our CBR pkg to stay at The Grove!). Thankful to have found ya’ll and can hardly wait to ring in the New Year during these “abnormal” times!
I guess I am a contrarian traveler. I live in northern Alabama so too far away for a weekend jaunt….so staying home thru mid-January 2021 but headed to WDW last week of January 2021 based on the assumption that it will be very empty. Thoughts?
I too planned all Summer for our annual Thanksgiving trip. I’ve had to postpone twice and now planning Thanksgiving 2021. I knew there was a 50-50 chance that would happen but the planning got me through the Summer. I called it fantasy planning. It was great.
It will not be low crowds. It was packed this past weekend. No room to really social distance and strollers everywhere because most of the stroller parking is part of the lines now. Short waits were around 30 minutes.
If you aren’t local it’s not worth the hassle. They are very disappointing Disney Days.
Sadly I just cancelled our trip for next week. Was hard to cancel Beauty and the Beast, Yak and Yeti, Chef Mickey’s and other reservations I spent hours and hours watching for, grabbing as others cancelled … and I now returned the favor. Flying from California to Florida when the county next to us just locked down and the Governor said he may soon go to severe lockdowns given the surge and hospital pressures. Feels irresponsible going.
So we converted our tickets to next Christmas. Revenge? I’d be going now ’cause I really want to. Hard to wait another year … and yes, I really want to go during Christmas. It’s particularly magical!
Right there w/ you Teresa. Hard, but having to cancel our upcoming trip. Too much uncertainty and with the live shows being cut and cast members being let go, it’s too much for us to spend and not get the full experience.
This may not help a ton in the moment, but next yr when ya get to Disney for Xmas it may just be the ending to all this craziness ya need.
My wife and I went the last week in October which was supposed to be for Wine & Dine Half Marathon. Instead of cancel DVC we wanted to use the points so they don’t start to stack up. So we went, wore masks, had fun…but it’s not the same without true park hopping, fireworks, shows, EMH, cultural reps at Epcot, all restaurants open, etc. So we decided to let the APs expire and not go again until November 2021 for Wine & Dine. And that’s OK with us as we did it…but don’t want to do it again until it’s the full WDW experience that you pay for regardless if things are open or not.
And…. There’s a great big beautiful tomorrow shining at the end of every day! Tom- did you see the most recent WDW commercial?! It’s the BEST! If I can’t be there right now, I don’t mind watching the commercials every 30 minutes! 🙂
I love this commercial!
I agree, Kelly! When Disney actually has to work for their business, they make the best commercials!
I think most of us saw this coming. People can only stay home, not spending any money for so long before going crazy. Disney is the perfect release (actually vintage racing a 1966 GT350 is the perfect stress reliver!) to all of this pent up Covid stress. See you soon, we hope anyway!
I’ve decided that, come what may, I will be visiting WDW in early Jan 2020, and intend to spend 14 days in Mexico over Christmas to avoid the US’s ban on travel from the EU/UK. (Not as big a hardship as it may sound, as I have family there).
Logistically, I’m slightly unsure about whether to hire a car and drive everywhere, or take Ubers / Disney Buses. I would personally really like to support the local economy while there as I can’t think of a harder hit group than Uber drivers. Have you taken Ubers in or near Orlando and how have you found the drivers, in terms of face mask compliance, open windows, and other precautions?
We took a Lyft in October on Disney property and were required to have our masks on, as did the driver.
Uber has been great in Orlando and very compliant with masks.
We personally have been staying away from Ubers. If you think about it, it’s an extremely confined space with someone who is constantly has the potential of being exposed to the virus. It is practically impossible to social distance from the driver in an Uber, not to mention all the people who have been in/out of the car all day…
Uber and Lyft might end up being like the airlines in the 90s where they merge together. I cannot see ride sharing being as prevalent after this. Oddly enough I think public transit like subways will be fine because in cities like Chicago and NY you don’t have much realistic choice. You’ll just see masks all the time. Heck I would not wear a mask at MK but getting on the monorail i would seriously consider it going forward.
Thank goodness WDW is open. Has allowed me to get my Disney fix during 2020, and will continue to be my escape until the other resorts reopen and international travel is once again a thing. Then, it’s back to TDR immediately.
One thing you didn’t mention…there are people like my family sitting on plane tickets that we couldn’t get refunded. So we’ll need to travel *sometime* in the next few months or be out that money.
And fwiw, I disagree that group travel won’t be back. Everything passes…including Covid. No illness has had an impact like this over the truly long term. Eventually, it’ll be the same as flu in terms of impact due to medical advances and yes, herd immunity. 😉
I don’t think it’s the illness that’ll stop event business from returning to 100%, I think it’s technology. The last several months have been “trial by fire” for a lot of companies, accelerating changes that were inevitable and forcing some people to get comfortable working in new ways.
I think at least some businesses will see the cost-savings in continuing to do business that way over having in-person conventions. Not all, but some. Enough to make a difference.
My take on the technology aspect is kind of the opposite. I feel like there will definitely be less small business trip in favor of video conferencing. But my understanding is a lot of the convention and event business was specifically to get people in the same location to do the kind of networking and deal making that they can’t do remotely (meeting colleagues from other areas, seeing products in person, etc.). They will be slow to return – no group is gonna want to be the first to take on the health risk of hosting a large event – but I think eventually they will come back closer to pre March levels than the small team business meetings.
@Julie – double check with your airline. I had a credit with JetBlue, for a flight that we opted to cancel in late March, that was originally set to expire 12/31/20. A couple of months ago, JetBlue extended the expiration on this credit to 12/31/21.
While mandatory quarantine after traveling outside Canada is still a requirement, I won’t be going to Disney anytime soon, I can’t afford to take that much time off work…otherwise I would be planning a Disney World vacation right now. I had hopes of going March 2021, but doesn’t look like that will happen. But I for sure have had my share of searching the internet for vacations, thought about taking off in the summer while I was still locked out of my workplace…. wish I did, as it doesn’t look like Canada is going to lift the restrictions. In Ontario some restrictions have been put back in place after numbers started to rise again….we are definitely headed for a second wave.
We’re in the same boat. Trip booked for May 2021 and I feel like we’re going to have to move it due to border closures. I also don’t want to go to wdw without fireworks, fast pass and more restaurant options.