Summer (Still) Is NOT High Crowds Season at Disney World
“It’s normally the busiest time of year, but this summer has been slow at Walt Disney World,” “Test Track shouldn’t go down right as peak season starts,” and “the parks should be packed but our dates were dead” are things we’ve heard recently–along with a lot of similar sentiment. This comes as no surprise, since summer crowds have been unpredictable and inconsistent the last several years.
The one thing summer hasn’t been, though, is peak season. Not for a long time. Back on June 26, 2017 we first published: Summer Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That explained how, despite the conventional wisdom that Memorial Day through Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the year in Florida, summer crowds weren’t as bad as in the past. It offered several potential theories explaining the why of this.
While a lot has changed in the 7 (!!!) years since that post was published, its sentiment rings true today. The explanations for lower crowds in June and July apply almost equally in 2024 as they did in 2016-2018. There obviously have been some major changes over the last several years, which is precisely why we’re revisiting this topic. So we might as well start with an “update” from 2019 through 2023…
As we’ve noted elsewhere, Walt Disney World has not experienced a “normal” summer in several years–since 2018. This is probably a big reason why some fans are being caught off-guard by the summer slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2024. Because it hasn’t been the case that summer has consistently been slow during the last 7 years.
There’s also the reality that many of us Walt Disney World fans are dinosaurs (in a good way!). Some of us are working on lengthy timelines, and we tend to refer to the third gate as the Disney-MGM Studios (or simply “MGM”), still groan about appetizers and tips no longer being included on the Disney Dining Plan, or think that they “just” reimagined Spaceship Earth (the current version is now the longest-running).
No surprise that it takes us a while to adjust to changes in crowd trends–we sometimes still think of February or October as the off-season, and, as it turns out, summer as peak season.
Let’s start this recap with Summer 2019, which was slow–very slow. That was in the lead-up to the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, during a window we dubbed the “Pre-Star Wars Slump.” Basically, fans were postponing visits until after that new land opened, resulting in summer being even slower than the (new) normal.
Low attendance and hotel occupancy during the first few months actually pushed Disney to move forward that land’s debut, which is why it opened without Rise of the Resistance. (There were also exceptional deals that year, including an unprecedented three waves of Free Dining.)
Then there was Summer 2020. The infamous year of the COVID closure. June broke records for low crowd levels…because all 4 parks were closed. The phased reopening of the theme parks began on July 11, with all four Walt Disney World parks reopened by July 15. Even once operational, the parks used reservations and only allowed 20-30% of their full capacity.
That didn’t matter during Summer 2020, as the parks couldn’t even hit that low mark. Suffice to say, the early part of the phased reopening was significantly slower than even the new normal and was an anomaly for obvious reasons. Anyone who has blocked what happened out their memory is going to rightfully disregard wait times data from the second half of 2020.
Then came Summer 2021. This is where things get really interesting! Travelers had been anxiously awaiting the end of health safety protocol, waiting to book vacations. And after months of half-measures and rumors, Walt Disney World ended all COVID-era restrictions on June 15, 2021. The only problem? They didn’t announce these changes until June 11.
Since there’s a lag between booking and traveling, crowds didn’t really heat up until July (versus Florida-wide stats showing airports and hotels doing blockbuster numbers from early June). From there, wait times data increased every single week until early August. I’ll never forget our bonkers July 28 visit to Magic Kingdom, which was the busiest day since March 2020.
That was also the day that Walt Disney World announced they’d reinstate indoor face mask rules as of July 30. And with that, the revenge travel party came to a crashing conclusion–or at least, a temporary pause.
Enter Summer 2022, the “do over” season for pent-up demand. While the height of the post-COVID travel occurred that winter and spring, the entire year was busy. That included June and July. Wait times for both months were well above-trend, which was true for literally every single month of 2022.
From my perspective, what’s more interesting than than overall monthly numbers is the trajectory of crowds. Summer wait times peaked in early June and decreased consistently from there–the exact opposite of the year prior! In this case, the reason was very different: rising gas prices, inflation, and fears about the broader economy.
Nevertheless, it was a scorching summer at Walt Disney World by any reasonable account. It would thus be foolish to compare the last two years to 2022 unless doing so in the context of the exhaustion of pent-up demand (as we have done). Otherwise, you run the risk of falling into a narrative about every season/month/week/day experiencing a slowdown. When really, it’s a reversion to the mean.
That brings us to Summer 2023. Last summer wasn’t that abnormal, but did have its own unique wrinkles. The big one that garnered mainstream media coverage was how Independence Day was downright dead at Walt Disney World. It was such a hot topic that it drew an explanation from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a whole and unseasonably bad weather, even by summer in Orlando standards. He wasn’t wrong, but that was also only part of the story–Disney had overly aggressive ticket blockouts that were the overriding issue.
Other than that, what I found somewhat surprising about last summer was that it had ‘twin peaks.’ There was one peak precisely when you’d expect in a normal (2016-2018) summer around the last week of June. (It would’ve been early July, but for those blockouts.) But there was another peak at the end of July. My best theory is that this was a ‘last hurrah’ for families wanting to visit before school went back into session in August–but it’s just that, a theory.
Regardless, summer crowd levels were lower across the board. Certainly not on par with the off-season or even shoulder season, but definitely not what you’d expect if you last experienced summer at Walt Disney World before 2016. It was downright delightful! Well…so long as you ignore the dreadful weather. Minor asterisk.
After all of that, we arrive at Summer 2024. Below is a look at weekly wait times not just from this year, but from the start of 2022 to show pent-up demand in action, as well as the exhaustion thereof. (As always, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.)
Crowds thus far this year have been all over the place. The first three months were busier than expected, the first time there were monthly increases in wait time averages as compared to the prior year since January 2023. (Meaning that Jan/Feb/March 2024 were busier than Jan/Feb/March 2023.) This led us to theorize about Re-Revenge Travel at Walt Disney World in 2024–a second wave or reverberation of pent-up demand, meaning fans visited in 2022, took a year off, and were now returning.
The theory didn’t hold up for long. April dropped like a rock, and although May actually did increase a bit (due to last year having a very low floor), now June 2024 is down considerably. Last June, the average wait time was 37 minutes–that’s a 5/10 or moderate crowd level. June 2024 is seeing average wait times of 33 minutes, for a low level average of 3/10. That’s only a couple of minutes, but it does amount to 2 levels–and all adds up over the course of the day.
Most notable is Magic Kingdom, which has a 25 minute average for a crowd level of 1/10 in June 2024. This is down as compared to 31 minutes for 4/10 last year. (If you’re wondering about the resort-wide vs. Magic Kingdom discrepancy, it’s because average wait times for each crowd level fluctuate per park–DHS is the worst, MK is the best.) Hollywood Studios has also seen a huge drop. At the other end of the spectrum, EPCOT is relatively unchanged. Proof positive that people actually love CommuniCore Hall? Or maybe they just hate Giant Dirt Pits?!
It’s also worth pointing out that wait times are also increasing as of this week, with today (June 19, 2024) having crowd levels of 5/10. Although three days is too early to call it a trend, this gradual increase is precisely what we’d expect to see happening in the two weeks leading up to Independence Day, with a gradual downslope in the two weeks after.
With that explanation and recent history out of the way, let’s talk theories as to why summer is slower now (2016-2019; 2023-2024) than it was back in the day…
The biggest reason for lower crowds during the summer is pricing. This was more obvious back when we first published this post, as the trend became very visible in the couple of years after Walt Disney World moved to seasonal ticket pricing. That only accelerated once date-based rates were introduced for multi-day tickets, and with summer being one of the more expensive times of the year.
Anyway, for both tickets and hotel rooms, summer pricing tends to be well above-average from Memorial Day through the first weekend of August. To be sure, there are times when room rates and ticket prices spike higher (much higher), particularly around holidays and spring break. However, no other multi-month period has the same sustained level of higher prices.
Recognizing the reality that summer prices have discouraged visitors, Walt Disney World has sought to remedy this with ticket deals (the Florida Resident Discover Disney Ticket and 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket for the general public). They’ve also introduced a bevy of big discounts, including a reprise of the popular Free Dining offer.
All of that has definitely moved the needle for 2024 (meaning numbers would be even worse but for those promos!), but it’s still not enough. The average visitor to Walt Disney World does not do much planning–many look at prices on the website once, and if that’s out of their budget, they don’t visit.
For many visitors, the elevated prices in June and July are significant. Between hotels and park tickets, the surcharge for a summer vacation could be over $1,000 for a family of 5, and that’s enough to justify postponing a visit for many people. Even a 1-day summer visit could cost an extra $100 or so for a family.
Of course, it also doesn’t matter for some families. Summer is the most convenient time for them to visit due to school breaks, so that’s when they go. This is the rationale for summer being the peak tourist season in the first place. For decades, summer has seen sustained crowds at just about every tourist destination, for that very reason.
However, we would posit that this matters less and less in the post-COVID climate. After extended stretches out of school, learning (and working!) remotely, families are less “afraid” to pull their kids out of school for vacation. Not all families or even most families, but just enough to move the needle.
There has definitely been a normalization of crowd levels, and remote school/work along with hybrid work/play trips are among the leading explanations. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from more and more readers who do exactly this. We can’t back it up with hard stats, but it passes the smell test and seems highly plausible to us.
This brings us to the next big factor, which is weather. Floridians stay home when the forecast turns unseasonably hot, humid or rainy. Tourists cannot quickly pivot and those already booked won’t cancel–but they’ll likely spend less time in the parks per day. Equally as significant, they could be shifting trips away from the summer months, due to more reports of oppressive weather.
Things were pretty bad last summer. The Orlando area saw record-setting highs on several occasions, and had temperatures consistently in the 90s, with “feels like” temperatures well above 100º. In that kind of heat, you can also bet that many Annual Passholders opted to skip their weekend day trip.
Of course, it’s no news that summer is unbearably hot and humid in Central Florida. This is not a recent development, so you might argue that it shouldn’t amount to a change. However, the last couple summers have been especially brutal, and as more people avail themselves of online planning resources, tourists become more cognizant of just how hot and humid summers are in Florida.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to pull kids out of school, and there’s a scenario where families have information and incentive not to visit in the summer. Others who are reluctant or unable to skip school might simply be more inclined to visit during breaks.
After brutal weather last June through August, I questioned the wisdom of visiting this time of year. And yet, we did again for previews of Tiana’s Bayou Adventure…just as another heat wave arrived. While I “have to” return for research during all months of the year, summer is entirely undesirable for a family vacation.
Another factor is the lack of special events to prop up summer numbers. This is somewhat an outgrowth of weather, because Walt Disney World simply cannot schedule runDisney races or outdoor ESPN Wide World of Sports competitions in June or July. At least, not without dire consequences due to the heat and humidity.
EPCOT also doesn’t have a summer festival for the first time since 2020, a move that really surprised us–we really expected something for the launch of CommuniCore. Regardless, this must be based in the practical reality that summer festivals simply are not as popular with locals or tourists. They’re not “worth it” for Disney to run.
Then there’s the Disney Meetings business for corporate events, which has fewer high profile conventions on the summer schedule. While I cannot speak to it with authority, I’d assume Disney Weddings is a similar story. (It’s also not as impactful on attendance either way.)
There are likely other variables I’m overlooking that could help explain why summer attendance has been down. Other factors might be at play, and in aggregate may have a noticeable impact, but I think those variables would be something visitors wouldn’t notice if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the weather.
Then there’s theoretical delayed trips for Tiana’s Bayou Adventure opening, similar to the pre-Star Wars Slump of 2019. I find this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to indicate a meaningful number of guests postponed trips in the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor were there noticeable spikes after those debuted.
They were, essentially, non-factors. This is actually an interesting topic in and of itself (one of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new attractions has given guests cold feet about planning around them), but beyond the scope of this post. Regardless, I have a very difficult time believing that Tiana’s Bayou Adventure has more drawing power than either of those. (Country Bear Musical Jamboree, on the other hand…)
If we’re theorizing about postponed trips for new things, I’d be inclined to assert that Epic Universe is having a far more significant impact on Walt Disney World than Tiana’s Bayou Adventure. Even though that’s at Universal Orlando, there’s obvious overlap, and a new park has way more drawing power than a reimagined ride.
Moreover, Universal’s summer slowdown is even more pronounced than Walt Disney World’s (2024 vs. 2023 per wait times data). That’s exactly what you’d expect to see if a meaningful number of people are delaying visits–a major impact on Universal and spillover at Walt Disney World.
Ultimately, it’s true that wait times have been below-average thus far in Summer 2024, with crowd levels of around 3/10. It’s also true that this is not really a recent development. That is, unless you’re comparing to the pent-up demand period, in which case we could have articles about every single time of the year, contending that [insert month] is now off-season. Summer being slower was the new-normal for a few years pre-COVID closures, and why it seems notable this year is because things have been abnormal for so many summers that it’s hard to remember what normal even is these days.
Before you read all of this and think that summer suddenly sounds like a great time to visit, uh, don’t. If you previously ruled out a summer vacation to Walt Disney World, consider the possibility that you did so for good reason. I’m not saying you’ll have a bad time–as we often say, “a rainy day at Walt Disney World is better than a perfect day at home.” That’s true as always.
What I will say is that whatever “gains” you’ll experience during summer at Walt Disney World by virtue of objectively lower crowd levels and wait times will be wiped out by subjectively inferior everything else. If you forced me to choose between mid-June and mid-December, I would choose the latter without hesitation.
Not just because I love Christmas, but because I know I could overcome the higher crowd levels by virtue of good strategy or, quite simply, spending more hours in the parks per day because of less weather-induced fatigue. Stated differently, it is infinitely easier to beat the crowds than it is the weather.
If you’re already looking forward to Summer 2025, hoping for a similar scenario, it’s probably worth pointing out that “summer is not peak season” is not the same as “summer is off-season.” To the contrary, the shoulder season (post-Spring Break through Memorial Day) and early fall off-season (mid-August after schools go back into session through fall break in late September or early October) are still slower than summer. June and July are no longer two of the busiest months of the year, as they once were. That doesn’t mean they’re two of the slowest. There are other options besides those extremes.
In the near-term, I also wouldn’t count on Walt Disney World’s summer crowds staying this low. Wait times and attendance are almost certainly going to gradually start increasing heading into the end of this month, especially since Disney didn’t make the same mistake with ticket blockouts for Independence Day and Free Dining ‘season.’ As noted above, crowd levels are already reaching the 5/10 or moderate range, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see 7/10 days through late July.
My expectation is that 3/10 crowd levels are in the rearview mirror for this summer, not to be seen again until the second week of August. If you wanted light crowds and high heat, you probably already missed your window of opportunity. Well, not for the latter…but that’s probably not much of a silver lining.
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Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our assessment as to why summer crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree entirely, and think it’s been as busy–or busier–than normal? Any observations about attendance trends during the fall months that follow this summer dip? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
My daughter and I are here now and I’m shocked at the crowds. We don’t even need Genie + BUT the park hours are the latest open / earliest close I’ve ever experienced. It makes navigating the heat really hard.
Soarin had a posted 5 minute wait both yesterday afternoon and today. Animal kingdom was empty at 5:00.
Crazy!!
Tom, I happened upon your blog a couple years ago and now look forward to your newsletters every few days! This really isn’t a crowd related comment, I was just wondering if you have any idea if they will do another ticket discount through the fall or if Disney has ever done so in the past? Coming down in November, but would like to wait to buy my park tickets just in case they extend the discounts. Thank you so much for everything that you do! I’ve planned several Disney trips in the last couple of years with your help.
Tom,
Great write up…the prices are certainly a factored. after a 7 year hiatus the boys ( I say boys..at 19 and 23) insisted we go back. so, we are going in August mid/late as we always have since 2007. it’s a 7 day visit rather than 10 as.we used to, just couldn’t swing the cost.
I have spreadsheets of all our visits including costs.. this trip, before the free dining offer, was over 3x the cost of our 2012 visit (which was 3 days longer…),,Even after the promo it is well over 2x the cost.
my income, sadly hasn’t tripled or doubled from 2012..and in fact went down after layoffs in covid. ridiculous price increases and reduced offerings…it is no surprise crowds are down.
We postponed our next trip until summer 2025 instead of this year because we wanted to wait until Tiana’s ride was open and the walls at EPCOT were down. At the time there was uncertainty as to either of those events were happening. Our only wall free EPCOT trip was in our first in 2019.
It’s not just the weather for us, it’s the pricing. We religiously went to WDW at least once a year pre-Covid. In fact, some years we went twice. Our last visit was February 2020 and I have to say it will stay the last visit for a long, long time. Disney has over priced everything, taken away so many perks(magical express, park hopper that is affordable, and many more) and has made the experience really only exclusively available (for non-FL folks) to those who have A LOT of extra income. This is sad. We have such great memories of going to Disney with our kids but greed has outweighed the original intent of the experience. Even the service had seen a major dip pre-COVID. I’m an avid Disney lover so writing this breaks my heart but it’s the truth. So many poor business decisions have resulted in a sub-par experience. Sadly, A True Disney Fan
Well said, could not agree more.
Very well said. We were just as you. we have traded the cost of 1 Disney Vaca for 2 separate beach/Tennessee vacations. It’s a much more relaxed vacation. We may consider next May if the deals are worth having. I have finally broken my addiction and I’m thankful. I still love Disney.
Too hot in Florida during the summer! However, I have also been turned off by how rude fellow guests are (dressed only in bra and panties, watching tick tok/youtube videos with the speaker up on phones, holding phones up to record every single show, etc ) that I kinda don’t want to go much anymore. Paying thousands and thousands of dollars to feel upset and anxious in the heat? Maybe I shouldn’t be so quick to book trips anymore. By the way, I think lots of travelers are going overseas this summer instead of domestic. Japan is a big destination right now.
We were in Epcot Tuesday, June 18. The weather was gorgeous. Not too hot at all and breezy. Did everything we wanted to do and had a fabulous uncrowded view of the fireworks. And it was great to see all the wall down. I did hear someone ask a CM, where is the long fountain? Funny!
DAS was done away with so many AP and others have canceled plans to come to disney. they suggest buying genie when they deny you. all a money grab. gross behavior! won’t be going back!
Right on point – I was denied DAS and suggested to buy Genie Plus. Also said the “accommodation” they could offer me was for my husband to stand in the line while I could find some a/c in restaurants or bathrooms and wait for him to advance to the front of the line and call me. They also stated that standby lines are moving a lot faster now with the new modification to LL. Well my husband and I are 75 y/o so with him standing in line for an hour or more and me waiting in the corner of a restaurant … not being together all day makes no sense for spending a day at Disney.
Right on point – I was denied DAS and suggested to buy Genie Plus. Also said the “accommodation” they could offer me was for my husband to stand in the line while I could find some a/c in restaurants or bathrooms and wait for him to advance to the front of the line and call me. They also stated that standby lines are moving a lot faster now with the new modification to LL which is definitely not true – I have been cheking every day and the more e-ticket rides have rise – all of them over an hour. Well my husband and I are 75 y/o so with him standing in line for an hour or more and me waiting in the corner of a restaurant … not being together all day makes no sense for spending a day at Disney.
Tom, do you think your long-standing forecast of “lower” crowds in early and mid September will still hold up this year? Actually, I will be there September 22-28, the week you listed recently as one of the “best” weeks.
You saw that I shifted those dates a bit, right? I think it’ll be busy your first day due to the main ticket deal ending, but then fine subsequent ones. Whereas summer has been slower than last year thus far, I wouldn’t be surprised if those dates are slightly busier. Lower baseline to begin with, and Disney has gotten much more aggressive with discounting this year.
We were there in early June 2022, and although it wasn’t too crowded, the weather was unbearable due to the heat and humidity. My husband swore he would never go again during the summer. We’re planning a trip for the first week of December, and although we hear it’s not overly crowded in early December, the weather seems to be all over the place!
The weather is all over the place in December! When have spent many December weeks in WDW wearing “summer” clothes for part of the week and then CA winter clothes for another part. Check the forecast right before leaving but remember Florida weather constantly changes! We love December though.
Hi, do you know the reason why they took away the extra evening hours on Wednesday for Magic Kingdom and Monday for Epcot in July?
The MDE app is still showing the extended evening hours for all of July.
If it were not for the fact that we basically travel to WDW at the beginning of June for our son’s birthday after buying into DVC, I would avoid that time of year for the reason you stated: weather.
True the crowds were somewhat lower during our visit on 6/4-6/8, and we hardly experienced any rain at all. But the “feels like” crowds were not as impactful as the “feels like” weather. We did Epcot on 6/6 and it was sweltering. Without any festivals, and the Giant Dirt Pit ™ gone, there was a lot of empty space. Such a problem would normally be welcomed, but with the lack of shade, it made us not even care, the whole while looking for a respite of shade or air conditioning. We did Animal Kingdom on 6/8 while taking advantage of 7:30 early entry. With using DAS for our son and having an enjoyable lunch at Nomad Lounge, we went on all rides and done by 1:00 pm to head back to Kidani to swim the heat away. Crowds were not too bad but once again, we did not really appreciate that because we were so freaking hot! Disney Springs was no fun the day we went there (why did we visit in the daytime IS the question), but it was not crowded there either. I was happy that we scheduled a lot of pool time during this abbreviated trip.
Last year we did not experience the heat like this and had lighter crowds. And we live in the California Orange County, so we have not really had any heat at all in as long as I can remember, so the Florida Orange County weather was just painful!
Interesting. As a teacher, I just have to go in the summer-my schedule and my kids’ rarely line up, and so the only time we can take a vacation is when we both have summer break, which is basically July. So if we want to do WDW, it’s going to be July or nothing. Happy for others to head down in other times though as it makes it slightly less crowded for those of us with inflexible schedules! But I do wonder if this is behind the “upgrade your vacation” offer we got recently for our July trip. We’ve been going regularly since 2009 and we’ve never had any sort of pre-vacation upgrade offer like this (or even an arrival upgrade offer…we are not people who are upgraded, to put it another way). Granted, we’re not going to take it–while it’s cheaper than what you can book on the website, 380/night for BC is still a significant jump from 240/night for CB…and GF they’re offering at the “amazing” discount of 500/night. I wondered why this was happening-my guess was maybe they’re trying to spread bookings around-more people at CB and get them to places with lower bookings? Gonna have to present a better discount to do that, though, or present us with AKL or something like that as an option! The other idea was that perhaps attendance was down and this was a way to make up for the lower numbers. Anyway, it struck me as odd and had definitely never happened before!
Thanks for sharing this–I wasn’t aware Walt Disney World had started doing that upgrade initiative again!
They started it around this time last year (IIRC) and continued through at least fall, but stopped when occupancy was higher. I hadn’t heard anything recently and, honestly, totally forgot about it. I think it’s just a way for WDW to capture more revenue when occupancy is lower.
We are going in August and staying at All Stars and also got an offer to upgrade at Riverside with a preferred room. But we didn’t take it, $399 per night for a room at Riverside is still more than double All Stars. I was excited for a brief moment though!
Here is a humorous way to look at the year-round weather in Central Florida.
January: hot (may be cold at night) *
February: hot (may be cold at night)*
March: hot (may be cold at night) *
April: hot
May: really hot
June: like you are on the sun
July: like you are wrapped in tin foil on the sun
August: like you are covered in baby oil wrapped in tin foil on the sun
September: really hot
October: hot*
November: hot (may be cool at night)* December: hot (may be cool at night)*
* During these months, Mother Nature May decide that it is winter for 3-7 days at any time
I did laugh at this, but does it really count as “humorous” if it’s one of those painful truths that’s a ‘better to laugh than cry’ scenario?! 😉
Who among us has not purchased emergency Helly Hansen cold weather gear in Norway after forgetting that Florida occasionally gets suddenly, extremely cold during the winter?
The World Showcase Lagoon! Providing wind chill effects bringing feels like temperatures down 20*F in the winter since 1982!
More generally, Tom’s explanation seems to fit the data for all months. Besides summer, April has the most school breaks and is the only other month with a decrease over last year. While it’s possible that this is a temporary situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if it holds out; keeping an eye on the future ticket deals (or lack thereof) will be important for near term predictions. Finally, I’m very interested to see what the 2023 Theme Index reports that last year attendance actually was.
All lies Tom! I’m standing in Magic Kingdom right now in this place couldn’t fit another person.
You’re actually sort of right! Today’s crowd level at Magic Kingdom is 5/10, which is a significant increase just since last week. I do think it might be able to fit a few more people, though. 😉
We were at WDW all of last week (6/9 through 6/15). We did AK on Monday, EPCOT on Tuesday, MK on Thursday, and HS on Friday. I tried to follow advice you’ve given before on other blog posts regarding which days of the week are best to visit each park. My goal for this trip was to try not to spend money on Genie+ and/or Lightning Lanes. In past trips, we have purchased those services for each member of our group, for each day in the park. I was hoping to save money AND use my phone less. I thought maybe lower crowd levels = lower wait times = no need for Genie+ = less time on my phone = more time being present and enjoying my time with my family. I’m happy to say that for the most part, we enjoyed very low “feels like” crowd levels AND consistently low wait times at all 4 parks. The one exception would be EPCOT, which I’m guessing is because it absolutely MONSOONED on us for most of the day. Unsurprisingly, wait times increased heavily for all of the indoor attractions… at one point, we noticed LWTL had a 45 minute wait. I think that was the first time in my life I saw the entire length of the queue utilized. Magic Kingdom had insanely low wait times. Pirates was a 5-10 minute wait all afternoon (we rode it 4 times in a row!) We never saw Peter Pan go over 45 minutes. We were able to ride everything except Jungle Cruise (which closed due to weather) and we got to do several rides more than once. That being said, I don’t think we have any more summer trips in us after this one. The heat and humidity were miserable. And we’re Florida natives; lived here 35 years. I also think I probably spent as much time perusing stand by wait times on my phone as I did managing our Genie+ and LL selections. So in that regard, it wasn’t much different. Because of the money we saved not purchasing Genie+ and LL, we were able to do at least one splurge-y TS lunch each day. So this afforded us a 1-2 hr break in the AC to rest/relax/escape the crowds & heat… which wouldn’t be necessary if we had gone in the cooler months anyway. *shrugs*
Thanks for sharing all of that!
Your theory about EPCOT is absolutely correct. My guess is that even on a non-monsoon day, that’s happening this summer due to heat and the lack of a festival, which explains why the wait times data isn’t really down for EPCOT. During our recent days in the park, we noticed far lower ‘feels like’ crowds in the walkways–the park felt dead–but wait times were still moderate.
The parks have been so unpredictable this month. I went to EPCOT for dinner the other day and the park was so quiet that we walked onto all of the rides and were able to queue in for Guardians. We were even able to stand against the railing and watch the fireworks, which we have never been able to do.
It is 1000% the weather for us and not even close. After growing up going in the miserable summers as a kid from Texas and then experiencing late Fall there when we actually moved to Florida we stopped going when it was hot full stop because it was intolerable to everyone and too expensive to miss time in the park because we needed to lie down and rehydrate. This now applies to all vacations and we only leave in the summer to go somewhere cooler than where we live!
“one of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new attractions has given guests cold feet about planning around them”
This was something I was thinking, too, as I see how much downtime there has been for TBA. Also, the virtual queues are pretty annoying, guaranteeing you between 0 and maybe 2 shots a day at that attraction, never mind the disgust for Lightning Lane for those of us who remember how well individual fast passes worked.
But I also think you’re correct that it’s not likely to move the needle, and postponing for Epic Universe maybe has a larger effect. (Which is interesting, because if more people visit after EU opens, will it actually affect anything, as that means those folks are likely to be spending less time at WDW and more at Universal? It does seem pretty likely that even without that possibility, EU’s opening will draw some of WDW’s guests.)
“(Which is interesting, because if more people visit after EU opens, will it actually affect anything, as that means those folks are likely to be spending less time at WDW and more at Universal? It does seem pretty likely that even without that possibility, EU’s opening will draw some of WDW’s guests.)”
Really difficult to say, and I’m very curious.
The folks who claim that Epic Universe is going to destroy Walt Disney World are definitely overlooking the possibilities that the new park either draws more people to Florida and WDW benefits from that; cannibalizes from Universal’s existing gates; or skews younger and holds more appeal for WDW’s demo more than Universal’s–or some combination of all three.
I’m not saying that’s what will happen–I don’t know. The most likely outcome is some of the above plus Epic Universe pulling locals and repeat visitors away from Walt Disney World, which is a slight net negative for Walt Disney World and a huge net positive for Universal.
That’s what happened with the Wizarding World of Harry Potter (Hogsmeade). Huge win for Universal, slight loss for Disney. Obviously, a full park is bigger than one land, but I think the same idea (roughly) applies.
What is even considered “Off Season” at WDW anymore? We used to go in September/October (and will be there again this upcoming September) but it seems that the Halloween season has started drawing MUCH larger crowds than usual. We’ve also done various times in January, but mid-January 2024 was PACKED and almost felt busier than the year that we checked in on New Year’s Eve.
Within each year, there are dates with considerably lower attendance and wait times. We’re talking a difference of -20 minutes on average in mid-August to mid-September versus other dates in July and October-December (and not even holiday weeks). That is absolutely HUGE.
However, if you’re comparing September 2024 to literally any date in 2014, you’re going to conclude there’s no off-season, as wait times are considerably higher across the board–even in September–than they were a decade ago. It also doesn’t help that the pockets of lower crowds are not always consistent or predictable due to deals, youth sporting events, conventions, etc. A lot that can throw monkey wrenches into things.
Hi Tom –
Not sure where else to post this question. Is there a reason why the publish date on your articles is not listed on the site? As I search for things, it would be really helpful to know what is new information and what might have been written awhile ago.
Thank you!
I second this. 🙂
I third this suggestion!
People ask for this all the time. I don’t think Tom has responded in the past, but I assume it’s for SEO?
It’s because of an issue this website has with Google grabbing the wrong dates when posts appear in their results, which is somehow exacerbated when there’s an actual publish date on the article.
You can actually see this in action with this particular post–Google the title and it’ll have June 11 next to it as the publish date. That’s incorrect, it was published today–June 19, 2024. Before, Google was adding totally random dates from decades ago when the site didn’t even exist. I don’t know why this happens and had a developer look into it, and their solution was a site redesign…which I didn’t want to spend the money having done.
As a makeshift solution to this, we have “updated” parentheticals in the first paragraph of evergreen posts and I usually try to put the publish date somewhere in parentheticals in the crowd report. I didn’t do that today, but will go back and find a spot to add it.
I scroll down to the first comment on the post to find the original post date because people typically comment right away 🙂
Our families “home Park” is Disneyland, as we live on the West Coast.
A year of planning to go to Florida and we go in August. Obviously, we didn’t plan well enough, as the heat and humidity was overwhelming.
Never again, lesson learned.
I’m surprised that the summer months are even considered.