Summer Is Not Peak Season at Disney World.
Summer crowds have been low at Walt Disney World the last few years, which bucks conventional wisdom that it’s peak tourist season in Florida. Summer 2020 is likely to be the least-busy stretch of the year at WDW, even though Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge is now open and both Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure and Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway will be open by then. (Updated February 14, 2020.)
The first time we experienced these low summer crowds, we assumed it was an anomaly. Wait time trends suggested otherwise. Even then, we assumed it was a one-off for that summer. However, the last couple of years have demonstrated that low to moderate crowds from late May through September are not a one-off or anomaly: it’s the new normal in terms of Walt Disney World crowds.
This is good news for those of you planning summer trips to Walt Disney World, as you should expect noticeably lighter crowds than what you would’ve experienced 4 years ago. It’s bad news for literally anyone else, as the decrease in summer attendance does not exist in a vacuum–it’s a redistribution of summer crowds to other months of the year. For proof of this, look no further than our new Peak Crowds in Winter 2020 “Off-Season” at Walt Disney World post…
As we discuss in our 2020 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar: When to Go & Avoid post, we are not expecting this to change in Summer 2020. This is despite Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure debuting in the France pavilion at Epcot this summer, and even though Star Wars: Rise fo the Resistance is still new.
The reality is that the excitement and hype over these new things is not enough to overcome the undesirability of a summer visit due to pricing and weather, and other factors we’ll discuss below…
The first reason for lower crowds during the summer is pricing. For both tickets and hotel rooms, summer pricing tends to be the highest of the year. To be sure, there are brief windows that see room rates and ticket prices spike higher, particularly around holidays and spring break. However, no other multi-month period has the same sustained level of higher prices as you’ll find in June and July.
While the average visitor to Walt Disney World does not do much planning, most do look at pricing to determine whether a visit fits in their budget. When they do, they are met with a price calendar on DisneyWorld.com showing significantly higher prices for the summer months:
For some people, it does not matter. Summer is the most convenient time for them to visit due to school breaks, so that’s when they go. This is the rationale for summer season being peak season in the first place. For decades, summer has been peak season in just about every tourist destination, including Walt Disney World, for that very reason.
For many visitors, the elevated prices in June and July are significant. Between hotels and park tickets, the surcharge for a summer vacation could be over $1,000 for a family of 5, and that’s enough to justify postponing a visit for many people. Even a 1-day summer visit could cost an extra $100 or so for a family.
If you’re a Florida resident, or even living within driving distance in the South, it’s pretty easy to delay your visit until the late summer or on a weekend during the fall if price is an issue. Even if you don’t live in the South, you may be considering an impulse-visit to Disney’s Hollywood Studios to experience Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance on an already-planned vacation to Florida.
That is, until you see the premium pricing. At which point, you might decide to wait until off-season, when prices are better. For as long as we can remember, this has been the case with rack rates on hotel rooms. However, seasonal ticket pricing is a relatively recent addition, rolling out for 1-day tickets only a few years ago, and for multi-day tickets last year. Redistribution of crowds was part of the intent of the pricing scheme, but I’d contend this is an overcorrection.
Although they represent a much smaller piece of the pie, Annual Passholder trends also could explain some of the shift in summer crowds at Walt Disney World. As Annual Passes have rapidly escalated in price, no doubt some people have dropped them entirely.
Others might instead move to a lower tier, particularly the Weekday Select and Silver passes, both of which are blocked out for almost the entire months of June and July. These blockouts coupled with the lack of festivals largely explains why Epcot feels like a ghost town in the summer.
Another thing that would cause guests to stay home, Floridians in particular, is the weather. It’s no news that summer is unbearably hot and humid in Central Florida.
However, the last couple summers have been especially brutal, and as more people avail themselves of online planning resources, tourists become more cognizant of just how hot and humid summers are in Florida.
Things were pretty bad last summer. Florida’s numbers haven’t been as bad as the heat wave in the Southwest, but the Orlando area saw highs consistently in the 90s, with “feels like” temperatures above 100º. In that kind of heat, you can bet that some Annual Passholders opt to skip their weekend day trip.
Stretches of poor weather are not something that impact tourism numbers, as tourists cannot really plan for it. They know the summer is hot and it rains during storm season, but not when a heat wave is going to occur. However, it’s a safe assumption that those tourists who are on vacation during a heat wave are spending more time at the hotel pool and less time in the parks.
Another explanation is that international visitation is down, particularly from Europe and the United Kingdom, and these foreign visitors would be most likely to come during the summer months. (Meanwhile, tourism from South America has actually rebounded in the last couple of years–but they’re visiting disproportionately in the winter months, which is summer in Brazil, Argentina, etc.)
Despite Florida greeting a record number visitors last year, which have been increasing by about 3-5% every year for the last several years, the number of international tourists has been dropping for the last few years. Two years ago, just under 11 million international tourists visited Florida, which was a 1% drop. This follows two consecutive years of 2% drops. (We don’t have final numbers for last year, but tentative results show overseas tourism to Florida is down another ~3%.)
More schools shifting to year-round calendars with longer breaks throughout the year is another explanation, but this is not a sudden occurrence that began in the last few years. School calendars have been trending this way for a decade or more.
Then there’s the common explanation cited by commenters on this blog whenever attendance gets busier: we “let the secret out!” and “everyone started going during ____ week because of you!” Except in this case, less people are attending, and the “secret” would be that it’s unbearably hot and humid during the summer in Florida (shhh…don’t tell anyone).
While there are a lot of Disney blogs (not just this one) offering trip planning advice that likely includes recommendations as to when to visit, the vast majority of Walt Disney World visitors either do not or cannot follow this advice. It’d sure be neat if everyone followed our advice, but the practical reality is that most visitors to Walt Disney World do very little research and do not have the time to pore over Disney blogs for hours. On the plus side, a lack of critical mass is why a lot of tips you’ll find on Disney blogs work in the first place.
There are likely other variables I’m overlooking that could help explain why summer attendance has been down the last two years. Epcot’s growing ‘festival seasons’ have probably drawn guests to every month of the year except June through August. Gas prices might play a role. However, my bet is that the noticeable decrease is caused by the confluence of higher seasonal pricing, decline in international tourism, and pre-Star Wars slump. Other factors might be at play, and in aggregate may have a noticeable impact, but I think those variables would be something visitors wouldn’t notice if it weren’t for the changes in ticket pricing, international visitation trends, and the weather.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our assessment as to why summer crowds at Walt Disney World have been noticeably below-average the last two years? Or, do you disagree entirely, and think it’s been as busy–or busier–than normal? Any observations about attendance trends during the fall months that follow this summer dip? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
“…the practical reality is that most visitors to Walt Disney World do very little research and do not have the time to pore over Disney blogs for hours.”
Nor, arguably, the inclination – this is something I personally do just for fun! Should a Disney trip ever *actually* materialize in my life, though, I will be well prepared. Thanks Tom! 🙂
With the Chinese parks closing due to Coronavirus., do you think there is a chance they would close here in the US if there were a Coronavirus outbreak in SoCal for example.
Florida Annual Pass holders are blocked out for most summer months. Also Disney offers Florida resident tickets in the Spring and Fall not summer months so it only makes sense to book during those months. As a Floridian that is born and raised here I much prefer Spring and Winter months at Disney World. When we do go to Disney in August we spend the day by the pool and go to the parks in the evening.
We went to WDW a few years back for the week prior to September long weekend. Was it crazy hot? Yes, but if you follow the Touring Plan, you gotta get there early and its cooler in the mornings for a while at least. We chose this time knowing that many schools have already started and this definitely had an impact on crowds. Wasn’t as bad as we thought it would be, very reasonable, some rides were almost walk on, and for others able to get FP’s with decent times. Plus, we got the dining plan when we stayed at Port Orleans which has a great pool area. Sure, close to hurricane season, but Orlando is far enough inland that it’s worth the scheduling risk. Went to one of the water parks, too – that was nice! You do have to be prepared for the heat and plan breaks accordingly, stay hydrated, use the shade.
I’m not optimistic for continued moderate Summer crowds in 2020. I was looking at hotel reservations — It’s amazing how many on-site hotels are already 100% booked for the summer.
I think there may have been an element of people putting off trips awaiting Galaxy’s Edge.
The limited free dining offer for summer 2020 is further suggestion that they really aren’t having much trouble filling summer vacancies.
And if they reduce hours compared to past summers…. the parks will definitely FEEL like high crowds — with long wait times and crowded walkways.
On-site occupancy is definitely up, but keep in mind that the majority of Walt Disney World guests are not staying on-site. (Tweaking Free Dining definitely helped fill those hotels.)
I’d expect an increase in crowds this summer as compared to last…but even if they’re up modestly, it still should be better than January-February 2020. Except for the weather.
Maybe.
To me, if on-site booking is up, then off-site is likely up as well.
But here is my fear…
With the expectation of high summer crowds, Disney ran pretty long operating hours summers 2017-2019… They planned “9 level” crowds, and ran the park at that level. Rides aren’t generally down for refurb over the summer. Long operating hours. So when crowds were a 6-7 instead of a 9… operating in a park that was staffed for a crowd level of 9… it made things feel much lighter.
There are rumors that Disney will cut hours to save money due to park losses in Asia.
So if they run the parks over the summer from 9-9 instead of 8-11, for example, and if crowds rise from a 6-7 to a 7-8, and they crash into reduced park hours…… The summer could turn into a nightmare.
I’m watching carefully because I’m booked 6/26-7/4. And right now, there is very very low hotel availability left that week.
Actually Tom… I have a mystery for you when I look closer. Epcot area resorts are booked solid from 6/28-7/2. At first I thought it was July 4th crowds, but there is plenty of availability July 2nd forward.
I thought maybe it was free dining, but there is plenty of availability outside of the Epcot resort area.
So why is availability so limited in the Epcot resort area for those few days??
A total guess — Could Disney be planning on opening the Epcot-France expansion during those days, so they are setting aside rooms for media, execs, etc?
Tom do you find that rides have been more temporarily closed for Summer 2019 in the parks?
We just returned from a week at WDW and it sure felt like peak season with waits at the most popular attractions well exceeding 60 – 90 minutes. At some points Flight of Passage was over 3.5 hours and Slinky Dog Dash was at 3 hours. Achieving your fast pass after the initial 3 were done was challenging- at least for some of the most popular rides. Busses were packed and lines just to get into the park were longer then what I remember (the bag check lines especially). I can usually measure how busy the Magic Kingdom is when there is a reasonably long wait for it’s a small world – 35 minutes for that ride is long.
Awesome trip as usual though!!
I seriously considered a trip this August. I’ve gone in September, and I tried hard to convince myself that it wouldn’t be THAT much hotter a month earlier.
But, as I think you put it, it’s like strolling around on the surface of Mars. I just can’t bring myself to plan to do that! No matter how short the lines might be!
I’ve gone in August….nothing like going to the first Mickey’s Not so Scary Hallowing Party if the year on a 97 degree, humid day.
Most of our WDW vacations have been summer, due to have a school age child and a wife who teaches. The trips we took one November, and this past Easter Break, where the best in my opinion because the temperature was not that of the surface of the sun, with 1000% humidity.
This an other posts have me rethinking future trips. Try to avoid summer due to weather, crowds, and weather. Taking crowds out of the equation might make it manageable.
Funny you mention being scorned for revealing the secrets of when to travel. I was actually surprised on my last two trips at how many people still DO NOT research anything. So much information is avail online, for free… don’t need to buy a book or subscribe to a service… it’s just out there to view. Yet, apparently people don’t strategize meal locations or times, or even which park to visit on a given day, let alone specific attractions. I know, there’s a spectrum of effort to exert; so, I suppose it makes sense that there would be plan-less to balance those who plan everything.
Hi Tom. Thank you for this well written blog post. It was 100% easy to understand WHEN it was written and updated. Sorry that some don’t fully read your articles before blasting you. I love the info I get from your blogs and always look forward to me email from you! Adds Disney to my day!
I’ve another (as yet un-thought through) theory. I’m wondering if there’s a combination of all the things Tom points too but also people are a bit “less Disney” these days. I’m 52 my kids were brought up on Disney (as I was) but none of their contemporaries were. They aren’t interested. Of her 5 closest friends they have all been to Florida at least once in the last 5 years and only 1 went to WDW and only for a few days. And that 1 saying Universal was way better. They all went to Universal btw. S where I am going with this – I’m wondering as the generations age there is less of a “Disney pull” on the kids – so there is less desire for people to go either at all or when the kids are off. We are UK based and a Disney bubble holiday will be about £8000. Minimum. Though I have to say it’s only 14 sleeps until we go! Though it will probably be the last time for a while.
Interesting theory. I wonder if that’s at the heart of why Disney thinks WDW needs to be an extension of whatever is in movie theaters right now, like they are (over-doing) with Toy Story. That would be grossly unfortunate. I go to WDW for the whole magical experience– adventureland, fantasyland, frontierland– not to spend time on a movie set. Quite frankly, I’ve always hated walking into places that were re-creations of movie locations, because seeing it in real-life hammers home just how fake everything is, and it RUINS the memory of the movie. When I leave the theater, my brain likes to believe what I just saw COULD be real… in some far off place. Going to a theme park re-creation reminds me that it was all Hollywood fakery, the make-believe bubble pops, and I never look at the move the same way again. Real-life example, for any fans of Dukes of Hazzard, the car (General Lee) was somewhat of a superhero car able to defy physics on screen. Seeing it in person reminded me it’s just an ordinary Dodge Charger and the car I was touching could not have actually done all that. Bubble burst.
Makes sense to me. I never hear my kids’ friends talk about Disney characters (although they did listen to the Frozen soundtrack at daycare a few years ago). They talk about the latest video game or more mature videos (which always surprises me given their ages – 3 and 6). I remember watching Disney movies as a kid (and teen). Maybe it was easier to watch them in the 90s and 00s with Blockbuster and other video renting services. Disney doesn’t exactly make it easy to rent the videos these days. There used to be some on the streaming services (i.e. Netflix), but there are only a handful or so of the more recent ones (i.e. Cars, Incredibles, Coco). None of the classics. Hard to create new fans if they only see the movies once when they come out in theatre. Maybe its just us. We don’t tend to buy videos. I’d rather rent them.
My daughter, 4, and all her preschool friends, are OBSESSED with Disney. Most have been to WDW now. It’s true they don’t know the Cinderella movie (we showed it to our daughter, she thought it boring) but they recognize princesses. Elsa and Anna are huge, but so are Rapunzel (Tangled) and Moana. They love Mickey and his friends. Mowgli, Lion King and Pooh are also hits with the preschool set. And the Disney Jr show at HS is huge!
Without a publication date on this article (which seems to have been reposted from an earlier date?), it is useless.
C’mon Tom, you can do better. How hard is it to begin your blog posts with the publication date?
There’s a “last updated” date at the end of the first paragraph. I’m not sure why this is an issue.
The main thing is that it’s often hard (if not entirely impossible) to tell what portion(s) have been updated and where the old material is. Might I suggest some sort of update section or something? I really enjoy your blog and definitely did see the last updated entry, but I didn’t have any way (other than to read the whole thing, which might be the whole point, but which many people might not do since they can’t tell what’s been updated and what hasn’t) to actually know for sure what the updated portions are. It’s your blog and I really enjoy reading it, but I do agree that a way to figure out what has been updated (or to just post an entirely new article with just the updated material) to streamline things would be greatly appreciated.
Whit – this is definitely a fair point and something I attempt to do when possible to avoid wasting your time. Often, I’ll have an “[DATE] UPDATE:” section when it’s just something quick and simple that can be written in a paragraph or two.
Unfortunately, some articles don’t lend themselves to that. This would be one of those, which I came pretty close to rewriting in full. Often, I don’t realize just how much is going to change until I start editing, deleting, and writing. This ended up being one of those times.
Thanks for including the date. I feel it puts the info in context.
DEWD, chill. First paragraph: “During our recent summer visits to Walt Disney World, the low crowds have really stuck out. This has been the case for the last few years, and is once again true in Summer 2019 as the parks are in the midst of a pre-Star Wars Land slump. (Last updated July 14, 2019.)”
Also if posts are reshared on the main feed they always have new information and will have a (last updated XYZ) date in the first paragraph.
Are you new here?
I’m new here and I agree completely that an article should have an easy to find date stated right at the top, preferably below the article’s title. Sheesh. This isn’t rocket science. Hell, if the writer can have the number of comments clearly stated beneath the article’s title, they can certainly have the date stated there as well. I’d much rather see how new/old an article is than see the number of comments.
When you write an article that has time considerations in it, you should at the very least publish the date in the beginning of the article to state when the article was written to help people determine the ‘timeliness’ of the article and statements within. Working through the comment section to find the first post as a time reference point is annoying and would also suggest this article to be old by disney standards.
I was going to email Tom one of these days about just THIS topic. Dates. I love this blog and come back frequently, but it’s frustrating reading articles that are timely by nature but give no clue of when they were written. Other than, as you said, by going by the date of the first reader comment. Tom, can you help us out please?
Word
Tom, If you don’t include the publication date on articles such as this one, then you render them almost useless. Is this article now 2 years old? Is it still relevant? Please give us an update. (Thanks for your very enjoyable blog.)
I totally agree with this comment. I really like Tom’s opinions but when I don’t know when a time sensitive article was written, it lessens the value of the article significantly. I look elsewhere.
Tom – I agree, please add dates. I have been caught out reading about something only to later realize it was very out of date. Thank you!
Interesting read. Thanks for the update!
Fo Sho
I avoid during the Summer because of the heat. Also, being on a budget means I need to save up to experience the most new stuff. We are waiting to go on our third visit to Disney World in 2021.
Interesting article and, as a visitor from the UK, I’m not surprised to see numbers down to be honest. As a child we would often go to Florida for holidays but I feel now like each passing year it is getting pushed beyond the realms of affordability for many normal families. This could be down to a number of reasons, maybe including exchange rates and the fact that every year the park pass packages go up. For a family of 4/5 they can cost more than 2000 pounds – a lot of expense on top of an already pricy holiday, for many.
It feels like it’s becoming a holiday only really affordable for the wealthier and the Disney die-hards, especially to stay on-site.
Saying all this – I have just booked to fly from the UK late September and the all-star resorts were fully booked through the travel agency and the flight is almost full, so maybe I’m
Wrong?
I really, really hope the decline in summer attendance continues for 2019. Summer heat brings out the worst in people when they’re overheated. Strollers are used as crowd-pushing weapons year-round, running over our feet, banging into our legs, cutting us off at intersections. But in summertime, stroller aggression goes into hyper-drive as overheated parents race toward the next air-conditioned attraction or cold drink counter, while their screaming kids are having a meltdown. Or they’re just trying to hit all the main attractions as fast as possible, so they can exit the park and head to the pool. Now add in large, slow-moving tour groups who clog the entire width of sidewalks, totally oblivious to all the people behind them desperately trying to get around, and you have the makings of a miserable day at the park. Thinner crowds are better for everyone, especially during the Dog Days of Summer.
And of course the mother of all reasons why attendance is shifting so dramatically at Disney World is that parents simply don’t care anymore about waiting to go when school is NOT in session — they just take their little ones out of school whenever they feel like they “deserve” a Disney vacation no matter what time of the year. As a Florida resident and frequent visitor to the World, I have observed that there truly are no “seasons” any longer as there are families with school-age kids there at any time with no regard to when schools are in session. Hey. maybe those hundreds of kinds are all home-schooled, huh?
Why does it matter if we take our kids out of school? Who are you to say what parents can do. My kids can learn while still on vacation. Your a twat.
A little defensive, Sean? J. smith didn’t pass judgement, he just pointed out the fact that many more people are comfortable pulling their kids from school for a vacation than used to be the case. No need for name calling on a Disney blog, of all places.
Just as an FYI, there ARE thousands of Homeschool families and the number goes up 2% to 8% per annum over the previous years. I personally have a large group of DVC/Homecoming friends and we never go in the summer. So, yeah, it could be that’s who your seeing
Also as mentioned in the article, schools are trending towards more frequent breaks throughout the year, which mean shorter summer breaks. My friends who are teachers leave school in late May and are back in Late July. Their students get a full week off in the fall as well as longer winter and spring breaks.
Hey guys,give Tom some slack. At no cost to us, he provides this incredibly information- filled blog which is emailed to us quite often.
I don’t know how he finds the time to write so much on so many topics.
On another note concerning attendance; for me it’s price,plain and simple that’s keeps our family from visiting more. The cost has become too prohibitive for my family of four, and that’s even before the cost of air fare to get there.
Thanks,Tom for your emails which I enjoy reading every time.
We’ve only taken our child out of school once to go WDW (or any vacation), and that was 2 hours before the start of a scheduled school break….but yes, I get your point and agree with you. Perhaps that’s because I value education and where getting a good one (in a “failing urban district,” no less) can lead you to in life.
As for taking kids out of school, those of us who must work the summer season (like my wife) can’t go on the family vacation unless we get really lucky with the schedule – and that can’t be predicted in advance, so it’s hard to make plans. So I guess our daughter is going to have to miss school if we’re ever going to have a family vacation again after she starts kindergarten next year.
HI J. Smith, I totally understand what you are saying. However, I’d love to give my experience. We have taken our kids out of school every year for Fall Break (this year we only get 2 days)–sometimes for Disney. But, often for other vacations–like last year, Boston and Quebec. The 3 – 5 days has never hurt my daughter; she had a 4.3 average last year as a sophomore (over an “A”). In fact, one year instead of doing a project on Brazil from the internet, she went to Norway in Epcot. She interviewed Norwegian young people, ate Norwegian food, and saw (a little) Norwegian architecture. That, in addition, to the internet was a memorable project for her. Last year, I took my artist daughter to the International Arts Festival at Epcot. The 2 days she missed at school? She can’t tell you what she missed. But, the artist workshops and conversations with career artists discussing college and career were beyond valuable. A couple of focused days with your family doesn’t hurt a student and sometimes invigorates them. School (as you know) can be very stresful for kids. I’m here to tell you, you can still value education and take a few days off.