Will Disney World Stay Closed Until 2021?
“Will Walt Disney World reopen before 2021?” and “will the parks stay closed through summer/Halloween/Christmas/[insert month, year or specific date]?” have become increasingly common thanks to one already infamous expert opinion.
With so much uncertainty in the air about when Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Animal Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and the resort hotels will reopen, these questions are unsurprising. Accordingly, we’ve been doing an ongoing speculative series that attempts to offer balance, nuance, and our best guesses with all things considered. To recap, here are questions what we’ve addressed:
- When Will Walt Disney World Reopen?
- Will Walt Disney World Offer Huge Discounts Once It Opens?
- How Bad Will Crowds Be at Walt Disney World After Reopening?
Previously, the common question we were receiving was “when will Walt Disney World reopen?” Due to recent commentary from Swiss bank UBS analyst John Hodulik that has gained traction in the Disney fan community, there has been rampant speculation and fear-mongering that Walt Disney World will not reopen until 2021. In large part, this post serves to rebut and contextualize that…
However, we first want to emphasis the speculative nature of this post. We do not own a (working) crystal ball nor have we consulted Nostradamus about this particular matter. While we’ve been asked these questions a lot in the last month-plus, the reality is that we don’t have a credible answer as to how long Walt Disney World will remain closed or when the parks will reopen.
The reality is also that literally no one does. Not any third party bloggers or vloggers. Not any Cast Member friends you might have, bus drivers or otherwise. Not even senior leadership at Walt Disney World or Disneyland. This is an unprecedented and constantly evolving situation. Our collective knowledge tomorrow will differ from what we know today–and next week it’ll be totally different.
Disney is scrambling to get ahead of this and is developing a range of tentative plans for modified operations, but the key word there is “tentative” (and also “range of,” meaning that several potential plans are being developed). Even Bob Iger’s controversial statements were only possibilities, and not procedures that definitely will be used when it comes to the future of the parks.
Another category of individuals who are taking stabs at when and how the theme parks might reopen are analysts. These individuals typically have no expertise in theme park operations, but instead understand the financial contours of the Walt Disney Company and its many business units.
There have been numerous predictions and forecasts of when Walt Disney World will reopen from respected financial experts, most ranging from June through October. None of these have gained traction in the Disney fan community because they’re more wonkish and less salacious.
As contrasted with the more moderate predictions, the 2021 date has been shared widely because it’s more controversial and attention grabbing. In this increasingly polarized environment, it vindicates those who believe shutdowns should last longer and enrages those who think we should reopen the economy ASAP. It’s being spread by those nodding in agreement and hate-shared by those who it upsets.
We’ve read or heard at least a half dozen predictions from analysts over the course of the last month, but didn’t feel a single one merited reporting on, just as we haven’t reported on the guesses of random friends and neighbors. Frankly, this one does not merit a blog post, either. Unfortunately, we’ve received a lot of confused and concerned questions from readers about it, so thought we’d clarify and contextualize this to the extent we can.
One of the things I’ve learned in following financial analysts is that you can validate your own preconceived notions, economic outlook, and general worldview–no matter what they may be–if that’s what you’re seeking to do. The Great Recession vindicated doom and gloom pundits, turning them into veritable celebrities and giving rise to a lucrative market for dire prognosticators who want to repeat that and star in The Big Short 2. The more extreme, the more likely the soundbite will be shared far and wide.
In a sense, there are actually some parallels to Disney fandom–polarization plays well, and anyone can find material that supports extreme positions that Disney has never been better or worse. This is almost akin to the intersection of these two things. Optimistic that parks will reopen June 1? Analysts support you! Skeptical and thinking they should stay closed until 2021? An analyst supports you!
With that preface out of the way, this prediction comes from UBS analyst John Hodulik, who offered it in his “Eye of the Storm” investor note. This memo served as his justification for downgrading the Walt Disney Company’s stock from buy to neutral, and cutting his price target on TWDC’s stock to $114 from $162.
This is predicated upon a bleak outlook for every single one of Disney’s business units save for Disney+, with a particular emphasis on troubles facing theme parks and live sports. In addition to Walt Disney World and Disneyland not reopening until 2021, Hodulik also believes that there are real risks to the fall sport seasons (while failing to acknowledge that ESPN would be well-positioned if sports do resume without spectators).
With regard to theme parks, Hodulik’s expectation is that “economic recession plus the need for social distancing, new health precautions, the lack of travel and crowd aversion are likely to make this business less profitable until there is a widely available vaccine.” That does not mean the parks won’t reopen until 2021, just that they won’t be as profitable once they do reopen.
MarketWatch’s FactSet tracks 27 analysts who cover the Walt Disney Company’s stock, and 18 rate it a buy and 9 rate it a hold. The average price target is $129.96, which is actually 26% above recent levels. In other words, Hodulik is objectively pessimistic on Disney as compared to other experts.
There is no disputing the assessment that Disney faces a lot of pressure right now and for the foreseeable future. The film business, live sports, media production, and theme parks all face uphill challenges. My perspective is also fairly pessimistic on Disney’s financial outlook, but for me the conclusion is different. I think that Disney will be more aggressive in attempting to bounce back, as the company’s future viability is on the line.
Even though summer is no longer peak season at Walt Disney World, it is still Florida’s prime tourist season. The resorts have offered numerous deals for the summer months, including Free Dining and the Fun & Sun discount. More recently, Walt Disney World started accepting reservations for June 1, 2020 or later. Likewise, the Free Dining Recovery Deal begins June 1, 2020 and runs through September.
Beyond that, Shanghai Disneyland is currently going through the motions of trial operations with test guests to practice social distancing, guest entry, and other aspects of modified operations. If this goes as anticipated, the park will reopen before having been closed 100 days. A similar timeline would put the reopening of Walt Disney World right around early June 2020.
Further supporting this is Governor Ron DeSantis’ Reopen Florida Task Force, which has an Industry Working Group subcommittee to determine how and when to reopen parks and other attractions in the Sunshine State. We covered these discussions and tentative possibilities at length in Potential Plans for Walt Disney World Phased Reopening.
It’s noteworthy that the Reopen Florida Task Force has not released a timeline for reopening theme parks, nor have Universal or Walt Disney World expressed their goals. However, in listening to press conferences by Governor DeSantis on the matter, who has stated that “the curve has been flattened in Florida,” it’s fairly clear that he wants to start the process of reopening the state. (To that point, on Sunday he said: “we’re gonna make an announcement pretty soon.”)
Between Florida wanting to begin reopening its battered, tourism-dependent economy and the Walt Disney Company wanting viable business units that are not the Disney+ streaming service, the 2021 prediction does not seem particularly plausible. From our perspective, a date closer to June 1, 2020 seems much more likely than one closer to January 1, 2021.
Suffice to say, there is more than ample reason to believe that both Disney and Florida want to be back in business by summer, and take advantage of whatever pent-up demand might exist then. Missing the more lucrative summer, Halloween, and Christmas tourist seasons to instead open for the January off-season doesn’t pass the smell test when considering the internal targets of both Disney and Florida. However, perhaps something will change again and so too will those internal targets.
None of this is to say that we think Walt Disney World should reopen this summer or stay closed until January 1, 2021. This is arm’s length analysis about what we perceive is most likely to occur, not what we ourselves want. This is truly a complex and multifarious problem, and total harm reduction modeling will need to be utilized. Neither of us are so deluded as to believe we have all of the answers or even a fraction of the information necessary to dictate what “should” happen.
We’d likewise encourage humility from everyone thinking about commenting below. Rather than condescendingly assuming you have the one valid perspective, have empathy. People are understandably worried about their health, both physical and economic. Try to put yourselves in the shoes of others who may be justified in their divergent perspectives. Those who tout themselves as the smartest person in the room seldom are, and never are viewed as such by the room’s other occupants.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Walt Disney World will reopen by June 2020? If not, what’s your predicted date/month? Think the UBS analyst’s prediction is plausible? Keep comments respectful, apolitical, and on topic. Anything not following these requirements will be removed.
Thanks Tom. I have a feeling that even if Disney opened tomorrow that it would still struggle. There is so much unknown about how sick you can actually get from this virus. We had a trip for April 16-23rd that got cancelled so we reschedule for August 22-30 but I feel like if I go and one of us get really sick that I would feel extremely guilty about going and putting my kids in harms way. Unless something changes between now and then we are likely to cancel. It’s a bummer because I will lose my dec 2018 banked dvc points as a result (using 202 points from dec 2018 as part of a bigger reservation). Each person is going fro have to ask themselves if the risk of getting very ill is worth it.
not sure I follow all the options. you probably have this already: https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/travel-information/
I have a trip currently planned for early July, but I’m not sure the Canadian US border will even be open by then. I would love for my July trip to happen still but I’m not optimistic about it. As for when it will reopen? I think it depends on what they discover about the spread of asymptomatic people and screaming and laughter on a ride and how long and far it will stay in the air.
We are Canadian, with a arrival date at the end of June. Our flights have been cancelled by the airline, but was wondering the same thing about the Canada/US border. Will Disney refund our money if the parks are open, but the border is not?
We also have flights booked for end of June, but ours have not been cancelled – West Jet has cancelled all international flights through June 4th, but we are in limbo until they determine how to go forward from there. If the borders remain closed, then obviously our flights will be cancelled. And we have room only reservations, so we can get a full refund 5 days or more prior to departure. I’m not sure how it works if you have a package. What airline are you booked with? Air Canada hasn’t completely cancelled their routes from YYZ to MCO (though they are greatly reduced), so I’m surprised that your flights are already cancelled. I’m almost hoping the border stays closed and the decision is taken out of our hands, as the cruise we were hoping to be on is not going (unless the CDC restriction is lifted early). We have 2 weeks booked, with Disney, Universal, and a Disney Cruise. I’m not really expecting to go, but if it becomes an option, that’s a loaded decision.
Thank you for the article. We had a tripped booked for May 9-16 but rescheduled to August. If Disney opens by August we will be there.
I’ve read several comments left by readers on your last few posts that go something like, “just wait, wait, wait to go back to the parks – they’ll still be there next year”, or “the parks shouldn’t open until there’s a vaccine”, etc. I’m not a business minded person, so perhaps I’m missing something…but how on earth do these people that propose such solutions think a business (even one as lucrative as Disney) can forfeit profits for a year and *still* exist?!?
In response to Adam: Disney has NEVER guaranteed your safety and it never will. Safety is an impossible thing to guarantee…pandemic or not.
If the parks aren’t there next year (Disney, Universal, etc go belly up), then my now postponed until next year trip wasn’t mean’t to be.
Much like another person who commented earlier, I’d rather wait the 9-12 months to get, if not the full pre-pandemic park experience, at least something that is not likely to be a cut rate experience (long lines, cancelled parades, limitations on rides). I also feel for me and my family, it is prudent to give researchers more time to understand and devise ways to fight this virus, rather than rush in a month or two (if that) after the parks open.
well said Stephanie! I concur
Stephanie, I totally agree. We are never garanteed safety…not anywhere! There are plenty of other viruses and bacteria out there that have the potential to cause illness or death (higher risk people are higher risk regardless). What isn’t really being discussed, at least not in mainstream sources, is the damage that sheltering in our homes– away from people for an extended time– does to our immune systems. It’s likely that much of the illness spikes we see after orders are lifted will be related to a reduced immunity to other viruses and bacteria. It’s everywhere, but our immune systems are accustomed to coming in contact with them daily.
Excellent article Tom. The analyst predictions in regards to the parks is nothing more than guess work, Anyone that’s as focused on the parks like you and I, along with many other geeks probably have equally if not better intuition or thoughts to make an educated guess when the parks will open. The analyst predictions are all over the place…amplifying the fact that they have really no idea. Personally, I agree with what you’ve mentioned, I think they’ll open (at least WDW) this summer and IMO as close to June 1st as possible. Again I’m only guessing, but I think WDW really wants to open by June in some capacity. Even if I’m wrong….I don’t think there’s anyway they get to Labor Day without WDW being open. I will admit…..I’ve got a horse in this race….we have a trip planned for mid-July….so there’s that.
Tom, thank you for your insight. I’m just finishing my freshman year in college and my dad and I were supposed to leave for Disney World this coming Sunday 🙁 Feeling very disappointed but I know it’s what’s best for the safety of everyone. We’re trying to decide between rescheduling for later this summer and waiting until next year, do you have any opinion on what’s better? The free dining deal would be nice but we don’t want to go through all the trouble of rescheduling just to get canceled again if they decide the closure needs to last through the summer.
Tom couldn’t find a way to email this to you so am trying this, you might find it interesting. I am super high risk but after listening to this I am no longer worried about life getting back to old normal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU
Part 2
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw
Tom – Good post and I agree. Everything is speculation at this point and will be until we have government guidance on what will be “legally” allowed to take place. I honestly think Disney will do an analysis after this to see how they can address their Fixed Cost sink to the greatest extent possible. I would be interested in an analysis to see if just Florida or local state traffic could support Disney. I highly doubt the parks will see a large amount of traffic from foreign travelers…even if the US blanket allows non-essential international travel this year.
Tough spot to be in if you are leadership in that company.
I have DVC reservation at the Grand Californian on June 2, 2020. If I cancel it, I will lose my points and not be able to reuse them before they expire. So I am held captive by Disney’s “week-by-week” policy to know whether I need to cancel or arrange new travel plans (flights and itineraries are constantly in flux). Couple that with the risk/fear/uncertainty of traveling with 3 small children and we honestly do not know what to do. This is a horribly uncomfortable position to be in.
@Jeremy
Sorry to hear that! Wasn’t there something sent from DVC last week where banked points from April and June 2019 use year could be extended 1 year and that banked points from 2018 could be extended six months? Maybe that only applies to the stuff that has currently been cancelled for March, April, and May.
I’m a VCG owner as well, booked for September. I may reschedule for next year. Good luck, and sorry about all the uncertainty!!
We have a whole family trip, and I mean everyone, my mom and dad, their daughters (us 3) our husbands and kiddos for the first week of July, we haven’t cancelled but we are getting ready to do so, it’s no that we do not trust Disney having every precaution known to been to avoid getting sick, it’s the airports we don’t trust! And we have to take 2 planned to get there!! Does anybody share this same feeling?
Sorry, addict the misspelled, we have to take 2 planes*
Great point about the airports and planes especially. I would not fly in the foreseeable future myself. There are so many unknowns and no one has a crystal ball. Great article Tom. I think you were addressing previous comments as a whole. We need to be tolerate of others opinions no matter how divergent they may be.
For what it’s worth I have a friend that flies all the time and their whole family (6 People) just flew in and out of Orlando and had a layover in Tennessee and she said it was spotlessly clean EVERYWHERE. Everyone is taking health/cleaning very seriously. I was worried about flying, but not anymore. Also, I’m hopeful that the ONE good thing that might come from this whole pandemic is that nasty bathrooms and other such gross things will no longer be tolerated by people. That cleanliness will make a huge comeback! 🙂 I hope you get to go and enjoy your trip!
Oh here we go again with the absurd claims of nasty bathrooms… Except at airports, none of the bathrooms on WDW trips over the last several years have been dirty, much less nasty. The cast members are working their butts off to clean up after littering losers and those who splash more than a wooly mammoth would.
I, too, have my vacation scheduled for September. It is to be my 50th birthday and am looking forward to the celebration. I have been told by many about the article from the analyst. Yes, I can understand how he sees Disney not reopening till January 2021. But I still believe that is highly unlikely. I think Disney and Universal will come up with a plan. I do hope and pray that the curve does flatten soon. To see the news every day and the totals are staggering. So many have been lost to this virus and pray for all the families that have lost a loved ones to it. I prays the medical staff and the all those that are still out there in the front lines. We will all get through it. We just need to keep that Disney spirit going and pray for all those that need it.
After waiting since little girl I finally could have enough money to visit WDW (it took me 5 years to save it). And now I can’t go. I have been waiting for more than 30 years for this unique chance and now I lost my job (tourism area, lots of people losing jobs)and will use all the money that I saved for firts necessities. But…I’m healthy and safe. This would be my biggest dream come true and I keep reading about people saying how sad they are because they will not be able to visit WDW *again* like they are used to. Imagine for the ones that would only have one life time possibility.
Ana, I am sorry about your job. I hope that once the economy starts to come back, you will have it again. We’re so focused on the virus and getting sick that we forget the millions of people who can’t afford rent or food anymore due to job loss or their businesses having to close (thinking about all the people who have sunk life savings into their own small business). I read that the UN estimates something like 300 million people risking starvation this year due to the collapsed economy. I hope you are able to keep a roof over your head and food on the table until the economy returns and you are able to get your job back.
Thank you so much for your posts. While we will most likely be postponing our planned fall trip (our whole family is in the high risk category for one reason or another), your upbeat, compassionate take on things (and your gorgeous pictures) have been a welcome bright spot in a newsfeed full of tragic and anxiety-inducing articles. Please don’t stop posting and please ignore anyone who responds to you negatively. We appreciate you now more than ever.
Thanks for the article Tom. I am so glad that I stumbled across your blog! We started planning our long awaited Disney trip last November. We haven’t been in over 6 years, and realized that our kids are growing up way too fast. We decided that we want to take another Disney trip before they go off to college in a few short years. After reading hundreds of articles (mostly on your blog), we decided on the week after Thanksgiving 2020. We’re renting DVC points from a member, and have already purchased our tickets. We’re not making any decisions right now, because I am still cautiously optimistic that Disney will be back to somewhat normal by then, but we will see. I do think that this summer seems feasible for reopening. I have seen several articles and reports stating that the virus cannot survive on surfaces in high humidity for very long (I think the report was 2 minutes, but I could be wrong on that). I know that FL is usually very humid, as in my home state of LA, so I am anticipating that we start seeing a drastic decline as the humidity steadily increases in the coming months. Again, this is just optimistic speculation, but all we can really do right now is speculate. Thanks for all you do!
We are holding on to a late August Reservation for now but we are getting ready to cancel. Being from Canada and paying almost 30% more for a Disney Trip then my neighbors to the South means that we will only go if there are 0 restrictions to travel and a nearly full experience. Only my opinion but I think it would be great if Disney would offer incentives to those who are booked to arrive in the first few months of opening to postpone their vacations vs cancelling , ie; let me rebook my existing offer to next year. If they have less people arriving those first few months, they could test their new expected Social Distancing measures without being completely overwhelmed with guests. This might also make it better for those who are for sure going as they won’t be overwhelmed with all these measures plus crazy crowds! I know its likely not going to happen but one can wish.
I agree Jason. We too are from Canada and have a trip booked the last week of August. Hoping against hope that some miracle will occur and make this all go away. This was to be our last trip before my son graduates high school and heads off to university. I particularly chose 2020 instead of 2021 to avoid the madness of Disney’s 50th anniversary (although the Tron Roller Coaster is quite a draw). I figured the crowds would be unbearable so that is why I chose this summer. If we don’t get to go, due to school schedules, our next option would be August of 2021. Again, worried about the anniversary crowds as well as now all the people who have postponed their trip due to the pandemic. With the Canadian dollar in the toilet, it is a small fortune for Canadians to do a week at Disney.
We have a trip scheduled for September, and we are holding out hope, and we aren’t canceling until it’s forced by Disney being closed or Disney coming out with more details. I think our deal breaker will be required masks because with the humidity in September, that would be brutal. Our backup plan is January/February 2021. I just feel for all of the Disney cast members and the uncertainty of it all. I’m predicting a soft opening for Florida residents sometime in July. We’ll all be back in our happy place before we know it; until then, be kind and have fun dreaming about your next amazing vacation 🙂
Tom this is an extremely well thought and verifiable article. I really appreciate your detailed research and your commentary on what is a very difficult situation for the entire world. I think the world is honestly looking at the Disney Company for a glimmer of hope and light to everything that is going on right now. I personally feel that whatever policies they put in place will help the rest of the world.
Thank you for writing this article! We have reservations to WDW for September. For now, we will keep them–only me and hubby so no small kiddos. However, we’ll be watching Shanghai and DL to see how reopening goes. I still believe no matter what, Disney parks will be magical.
We have my “bucket list” trip booked for 1st week in July. I haven’t rebooked YET or cancelled, but deep down I feel that this trip isn’t going to happen. I just can’t rationalize paying all that $ and not getting the FULL Disney Magic. We have been to Disney multiple times, but wanted to get one last trip in before my middle kiddo was adult prices. I don’t know if we should move it to later in the year, or to next year. Just SO many variables!!! School may start earlier in the fall because of this. Then there is hockey season which runs from Oct-March. I am trying to wait as long as possible to make changes, but wonder if I am just putting off the inevitable.
Hi Trina,
We have a mid-July trip booked and I have yet to cancel. I have, however, stopped dreaming about it actually happening. The need to socially distance until “herd immunity” or a vaccine is real. I have to believe that a trip prior to 2021 would be a mere shell in comparison to a real Disney vacation. I am an avid fan as well as a career biologist. It’s hard to pull the plug until Disney actually makes the decision for us… but, higher prices with an aging kiddo would be worth it in my opinion vs a trip laden with restrictions and cancelled crowd-pleasing shows and attractions.
The magic will return 🙂
“Mere Shell” is what keeps me away. When WDW reopens it will not be the WDW of March 14th, 2020. I cannot get excited about rushing back to socially distance at the Happiest Place on Earth. We have a trip booked for Aug and unless there is some huge medical breakthrough we’re not going. No desire to spend all my hard earned time and money for a trip with no live entertainment, characters and CMs in masks 🙁 As a life long WDW visitor that is just too depressing.
Yeah, we decided to rethink our late July Disney vaca. Hard decision. Rather than be in flux waiting for Disney to decide- we decided.
I had a mild case of Covid 19, but my sister has high risk people that she could bring it back home to, so can’t risk anyone going to the Parks then flying home possibly silently sick. I felt like a million right up to the second I got sick and honestly, it wasn’t til late on day two that I knew for certain that I was getting the flu. Thank goodness I hadn’t been anywhere in the days before.
So sad- I love planning As much as going and thinking about a trip with my Sis was going to be a blast. We had so many fun things planned. But our mom, her husband and his sister who they take care of have health conditions that would make Covid 29 a Serious danger.
So we are looking towards 2021 and will deal with the disappointment. But it’s pretty disappointing at the moment….
Covid 19, I mean.. typo
Thank you for an excellent article Tom. I’m new to Disney Tourist Blog and I have learned so much in the last few weeks. Your fanbase is amazingly intelligent and insightful. I look forward to your newsletter every week. Keep up the good work and keep spreading the information you receive. It helps all of us.