Will Disney World Stay Closed Until 2021?
“Will Walt Disney World reopen before 2021?” and “will the parks stay closed through summer/Halloween/Christmas/[insert month, year or specific date]?” have become increasingly common thanks to one already infamous expert opinion.
With so much uncertainty in the air about when Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Animal Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and the resort hotels will reopen, these questions are unsurprising. Accordingly, we’ve been doing an ongoing speculative series that attempts to offer balance, nuance, and our best guesses with all things considered. To recap, here are questions what we’ve addressed:
- When Will Walt Disney World Reopen?
- Will Walt Disney World Offer Huge Discounts Once It Opens?
- How Bad Will Crowds Be at Walt Disney World After Reopening?
Previously, the common question we were receiving was “when will Walt Disney World reopen?” Due to recent commentary from Swiss bank UBS analyst John Hodulik that has gained traction in the Disney fan community, there has been rampant speculation and fear-mongering that Walt Disney World will not reopen until 2021. In large part, this post serves to rebut and contextualize that…
However, we first want to emphasis the speculative nature of this post. We do not own a (working) crystal ball nor have we consulted Nostradamus about this particular matter. While we’ve been asked these questions a lot in the last month-plus, the reality is that we don’t have a credible answer as to how long Walt Disney World will remain closed or when the parks will reopen.
The reality is also that literally no one does. Not any third party bloggers or vloggers. Not any Cast Member friends you might have, bus drivers or otherwise. Not even senior leadership at Walt Disney World or Disneyland. This is an unprecedented and constantly evolving situation. Our collective knowledge tomorrow will differ from what we know today–and next week it’ll be totally different.
Disney is scrambling to get ahead of this and is developing a range of tentative plans for modified operations, but the key word there is “tentative” (and also “range of,” meaning that several potential plans are being developed). Even Bob Iger’s controversial statements were only possibilities, and not procedures that definitely will be used when it comes to the future of the parks.
Another category of individuals who are taking stabs at when and how the theme parks might reopen are analysts. These individuals typically have no expertise in theme park operations, but instead understand the financial contours of the Walt Disney Company and its many business units.
There have been numerous predictions and forecasts of when Walt Disney World will reopen from respected financial experts, most ranging from June through October. None of these have gained traction in the Disney fan community because they’re more wonkish and less salacious.
As contrasted with the more moderate predictions, the 2021 date has been shared widely because it’s more controversial and attention grabbing. In this increasingly polarized environment, it vindicates those who believe shutdowns should last longer and enrages those who think we should reopen the economy ASAP. It’s being spread by those nodding in agreement and hate-shared by those who it upsets.
We’ve read or heard at least a half dozen predictions from analysts over the course of the last month, but didn’t feel a single one merited reporting on, just as we haven’t reported on the guesses of random friends and neighbors. Frankly, this one does not merit a blog post, either. Unfortunately, we’ve received a lot of confused and concerned questions from readers about it, so thought we’d clarify and contextualize this to the extent we can.
One of the things I’ve learned in following financial analysts is that you can validate your own preconceived notions, economic outlook, and general worldview–no matter what they may be–if that’s what you’re seeking to do. The Great Recession vindicated doom and gloom pundits, turning them into veritable celebrities and giving rise to a lucrative market for dire prognosticators who want to repeat that and star in The Big Short 2. The more extreme, the more likely the soundbite will be shared far and wide.
In a sense, there are actually some parallels to Disney fandom–polarization plays well, and anyone can find material that supports extreme positions that Disney has never been better or worse. This is almost akin to the intersection of these two things. Optimistic that parks will reopen June 1? Analysts support you! Skeptical and thinking they should stay closed until 2021? An analyst supports you!
With that preface out of the way, this prediction comes from UBS analyst John Hodulik, who offered it in his “Eye of the Storm” investor note. This memo served as his justification for downgrading the Walt Disney Company’s stock from buy to neutral, and cutting his price target on TWDC’s stock to $114 from $162.
This is predicated upon a bleak outlook for every single one of Disney’s business units save for Disney+, with a particular emphasis on troubles facing theme parks and live sports. In addition to Walt Disney World and Disneyland not reopening until 2021, Hodulik also believes that there are real risks to the fall sport seasons (while failing to acknowledge that ESPN would be well-positioned if sports do resume without spectators).
With regard to theme parks, Hodulik’s expectation is that “economic recession plus the need for social distancing, new health precautions, the lack of travel and crowd aversion are likely to make this business less profitable until there is a widely available vaccine.” That does not mean the parks won’t reopen until 2021, just that they won’t be as profitable once they do reopen.
MarketWatch’s FactSet tracks 27 analysts who cover the Walt Disney Company’s stock, and 18 rate it a buy and 9 rate it a hold. The average price target is $129.96, which is actually 26% above recent levels. In other words, Hodulik is objectively pessimistic on Disney as compared to other experts.
There is no disputing the assessment that Disney faces a lot of pressure right now and for the foreseeable future. The film business, live sports, media production, and theme parks all face uphill challenges. My perspective is also fairly pessimistic on Disney’s financial outlook, but for me the conclusion is different. I think that Disney will be more aggressive in attempting to bounce back, as the company’s future viability is on the line.
Even though summer is no longer peak season at Walt Disney World, it is still Florida’s prime tourist season. The resorts have offered numerous deals for the summer months, including Free Dining and the Fun & Sun discount. More recently, Walt Disney World started accepting reservations for June 1, 2020 or later. Likewise, the Free Dining Recovery Deal begins June 1, 2020 and runs through September.
Beyond that, Shanghai Disneyland is currently going through the motions of trial operations with test guests to practice social distancing, guest entry, and other aspects of modified operations. If this goes as anticipated, the park will reopen before having been closed 100 days. A similar timeline would put the reopening of Walt Disney World right around early June 2020.
Further supporting this is Governor Ron DeSantis’ Reopen Florida Task Force, which has an Industry Working Group subcommittee to determine how and when to reopen parks and other attractions in the Sunshine State. We covered these discussions and tentative possibilities at length in Potential Plans for Walt Disney World Phased Reopening.
It’s noteworthy that the Reopen Florida Task Force has not released a timeline for reopening theme parks, nor have Universal or Walt Disney World expressed their goals. However, in listening to press conferences by Governor DeSantis on the matter, who has stated that “the curve has been flattened in Florida,” it’s fairly clear that he wants to start the process of reopening the state. (To that point, on Sunday he said: “we’re gonna make an announcement pretty soon.”)
Between Florida wanting to begin reopening its battered, tourism-dependent economy and the Walt Disney Company wanting viable business units that are not the Disney+ streaming service, the 2021 prediction does not seem particularly plausible. From our perspective, a date closer to June 1, 2020 seems much more likely than one closer to January 1, 2021.
Suffice to say, there is more than ample reason to believe that both Disney and Florida want to be back in business by summer, and take advantage of whatever pent-up demand might exist then. Missing the more lucrative summer, Halloween, and Christmas tourist seasons to instead open for the January off-season doesn’t pass the smell test when considering the internal targets of both Disney and Florida. However, perhaps something will change again and so too will those internal targets.
None of this is to say that we think Walt Disney World should reopen this summer or stay closed until January 1, 2021. This is arm’s length analysis about what we perceive is most likely to occur, not what we ourselves want. This is truly a complex and multifarious problem, and total harm reduction modeling will need to be utilized. Neither of us are so deluded as to believe we have all of the answers or even a fraction of the information necessary to dictate what “should” happen.
We’d likewise encourage humility from everyone thinking about commenting below. Rather than condescendingly assuming you have the one valid perspective, have empathy. People are understandably worried about their health, both physical and economic. Try to put yourselves in the shoes of others who may be justified in their divergent perspectives. Those who tout themselves as the smartest person in the room seldom are, and never are viewed as such by the room’s other occupants.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Walt Disney World will reopen by June 2020? If not, what’s your predicted date/month? Think the UBS analyst’s prediction is plausible? Keep comments respectful, apolitical, and on topic. Anything not following these requirements will be removed.
Is not Disneys reopening under the control of Federal and State Government?
When restrictions of crowd density and distancing are relaxed, the Parks will be ALLOWED to reopen. Is there any other way?
I do think Disney will want/need to open the parks and cruise line before they are profitable. Lower crowds in the first few months will make safety measures more feasible, and disney is still losing money with closed facilities so better to make some money than none. Plus they have to start bringing some cast members back before the economy picks up and they find other work.
I not a lot of the cruise line guaranteed rates for July and August are gone–that may mean those ships won’t sail, but it could also mean DCL have enough bookings they don’t need discounts (and don’t want full ships because that would make safety measures like spacing tables and theater seats impossible)
I have my doubts that reduced attendance measures would be profitable enough for it to be worth there while to consider opening under those conditions.
The Orlando Sentinel reported this afternoon (April 27) that Disney Cruise Lines has canceled all sailings through June 30. That has no direct connection to the theme parks, but is in line with the rest of the cruise industry.
Where are you reading this in the Sentinel? I’m not seeing it and am curious. As a travel agent, Disney emailed us yesterday stating that sailings on the Dream & Fantasy see cancelled through June 18 (for now) and sailings on the Magic (which sails to the Mediterranean) are cancelled through July 2. I’m not seeing anywhere official stating they are all cancelled through the end of June…
Tom this is a very thoughtful piece and I have appreciated all of your posts during this stressful time. I am interested in how Shanghai progresses with their trial/soft opening as it may provide some practical experience and hints for the US parks; although the government controls are much different. I’ve been wondering how the physical space in a park (walkways and the empty spaces between attractions) might impact capacity and physical distancing. My experience with Shanghai is that the physical space seems greater than in the US in terms of wide pathways and open areas. It seems likely that capacity will be a big consideration at least initially. Looking forward to reading more of your analysis and updates when that time comes. Thanks for providing a community.
Great article Tom! I’m curious about how Disney will limit the number of guests. Something I’ve been wondering about is Disney allowing only guests staying at Disney resorts to visit the parks? This is of coarse speculation and merely a point to start a future discussion.
I am concerned about crowd control as well. On YouTube the DIS unplugged shared some of their predictions in their episode WDW Discussion 4/21. One being, raising the prices to limit the amount of people who can afford to go into the parks. Although that may make most people furious, personally I wouldn’t know how to limit entry and that is an effective way to limit crowds. I do not envy any of the WDW/DLR higher ups who have to navigate the jigsaw puzzle of safety, social distancing and Disneyland operations.
If Disney opens, their suppliers must be open as well. From food to Magic Bands to material for costuming, those businesses have to all be up and running. Not all of them are located in Florida either. One of the largest suppliers of costuming material, Mood, has locations in both Los Angeles and NYC, and we know they’re probably not opening anytime soon.
Also, character costumes, the ones with those large heads, are shared by cast members. How will that work out? Not such an easy thing to sanitize between wearings. As for the cast members themselves, there are a few varieties; the ones that can’t wait to get back to work, and those who are scared to return. And then there are those who are not returning at all. Disney will need time to interview, hire and train new cast members prior to reopening. A dauntless task, to say the least.
Like Tom, I won’t try to project when they will reopen or how this will play out. Too many unknowns. I don’t even know when I’ll be able to go to the doctor again for a routine visit, which is where my priorities are at the moment, in my own Small World.
My opinions are very similar to yours, Tom. I think it will open sooner rather than later based on facts already stated and how things are moving towards it. The goal was also to SLOW THE SPREAD not to STOP it completely. It is a virus that will probably continue to mutate. A vaccine is not the end all beat all solution, especially if it continues to mutate. So, just as you pointed out, powers that be are testing theories to see what will work best while trying to keep people safe and conitnuing to SLOW THE SPREAD. If things go well in Asia tests, I do think they will open closer to June as you pointed out as a possibility. As the whole subject of when to open and how to handle is so very controversial and an inflammatory subject; it is best for each person/family makes a decision on what is best for them which may mean rescheduling a trip til 2021 even if parks open prior. Either way, I believe Disney will work beautifully with its guests in both special offers, discounts and rescheduling. In the end, we will eventually see our beautiful Disney rise do well again whenever that may be.
I have reservations at the Beach and Yaht Club on June 5th. If the resorts are still closed will they refund my money or can I make a later reservation at that time and will they honor the price I’m paying for June 5th?
If the parks are still closed and you purchased through Disney, not a travel agent, then you can get a refund. You can also reschedule, but you will be charged the rates for the new dates, not retain the rates from June 5. Unfortunately, just because you have to reschedule does not mean demand is decreased during the time you reschedule for. In fact, it is probably increasing as other reschedule for a similar time.
In short, you will get a refund for canceling, and you will not be charged a fee to reschedule, but you will be charged the new rate, which is totally fair.
This is the case if you purchased through a travel agent (who booked directly through Disney) also.
Even if you reserved through a Travel Agent, you can be refunded 100%. You can only make reservations for 2021 through calling Disney direct or using a Travel Agent to assist. They will take a $200 deposit towards a “Room Only” Package because pricing for 2021 tickets, dining plans have not been produced.
So again, I’ll say it. Let’s all stay home until we find the cure and there are zero cases. That’s equally a great plan It’s the only way to make sure we don’t get it. I’ve been working 6 days a week since we were banned from leaving our homes as well. So why is my life deemed disposable so that folks can get there essential duties taken care of.
There will never be zero cases. This will be like the flu and will keep coming back. BTW I haven’t stopped working since this has started.
This is simply unrealistic. Nobody will have a job anymore if we stay home until there is a cure. It will not happen, but I believe reopening of the economy will be very gradual, same with reopening of Disney World.
As a cast member, I feel that opening too soon will risk the lives of guests and cast alike. I have seen kids lick stantions and barrier ropes; I have been handed sticky cellphones straight from the mouths and grubby fingers of toddlers; I have been coughed on more times than I can recount. I don’t mind remaining closed for as long as it takes to really eliminate this disease since my immune system isn’t great and my mother is a spry 72 years young. Whatever decision they make, I just hope they understand that lives are in their hands. I would be fine with waiting until September and fall schedule to reopen.
Amen! Lives before money.
You’re under the impression that staying home for months doesn’t cause death. Unfortunately as economic situation worsens , domestic abuse, sex abuse, child abuse , suicide , drug abuse /overdose, violent crime all increase. So it’s not a bunch of elderly and frail people die vs no one dies. It’s elderly or frail people die or children through adults of any age die of abuse , suicide , violent crime or have lasting mental health issues plus a destroyed economy where many more go hungry.
Completely unrealistic. There is no wiping out of a caronavirus. It’s understandable that you might make the personal choice to keep living the way we’ve been living until…how long? But there are just as many, if not more, that have lives to live.
I never thought our Florida tourism economy would go through this. I’m hoping the theme parks open asap. It can be soft openings to see how it goes. 70,000 cast members in Disney alone are ready to return to work not to mention universal studios, sea world etc. People are free to stay away from the parks.
I forgot where I heard it (if it was a cast email or simply rumors among managers), but apparently when WDW first opens, they’d only be allowing Florida residents and possibly annual pass holders for the initial trial period, with cast members being blocked out all year. If you’re from out of state, I wouldn’t put too much of your faith, trust, and pixie dust in visiting this summer (the WORST time to go to any theme park). Then again, you never know.
The more concrete speculation I have: DeSantis said this past week Florida would be opening in 3 phases, each one lasting about 3 weeks, depending on how infection rates go (the beginning of phase 1 still hasn’t been announced). He also said that concert venues, bars/clubs, live sporting events, etc. would be phase 3, which I assume would include theme parks as well. If phase 1 starts (let’s pretend) May 1st, Disney wouldn’t open until mid to late June/early July if phases 1 & 2 go as planned and we don’t get the second wave then. Again, all guesses, but this is more or less a picture of things to come, albeit a very fuzzy one
Just so you know when theme parks were addressed on DeSantis plan they made it clear they were not a sporting venue, they have a ton more open space and could promote social distancing. I believe they will open phase 2
Sometime in June is the right time,obviously it would be with a lower attendance and virtual queues,masks,sanitizer stations,etc..Then slowly build attendance,honestly anyone who believes the parks can stay closed till January doesn’t get it,half of Orlando’s businesses would end up closing,and I don’t mean small mom and pop local businesses,I mean big names.I say Both Disney and Universal open on June 7th,Universals 30th anniversary.
Excellent feedback! Thank you !
When will the parks re-open?…Your guess is as good as mine at this point. I do have a question though. The picture in your post of Sleeping Beauty’s Castle, the Matterhorn, and the full moon. Is that a painting? Someone has taken liberties for the placement of the full moon 🙂
I was thinking the same thing. Unless it’s from another Disney park.
Tom: Is there any way you can date your posts? Sometimes, you say things like “Gov DeSantis wants plans by the end of this week” or “You might have heard, as announced yesterday . . . .” but without a date, you can’t tell when this stuff is happening. Thanks!
The Motley Fool recently put out a list of 3 reasons why they believe Disney will open this summer.
When I first saw musings on MarketWatch followed by the analyst from UBS, I was suspicious because I felt that both were using this situation as an opportunity to drive the stock price down.
Since Wall Street started its panicky moves in late Feb, there have been a series of stock pumpers and dumpers making the rounds on the financial channels. Since hedge fund managers, brokerage firms, and other fund managers use puts/calls as part of their overall strategy, one really needs to be super wary of any news/suggestion which tracks so obviously in a specific direction.
As usual, Tom, you’re concise, informative, transparent and helpful. And I’ve always enjoyed your friendly and smart writing style. Keep up the good work!
Open one park, DW or Epcot, to practice on Florida residents who sign a no fault waiver. Limit amount of visitors. Could have mobil signs at various roadway entrances indicating if park is at full capacity. Temporarily lower the prices to compensate for lack of some attractions.
I liken this to my son’s school, and NYC schools in general, being closed for the rest of the year (End of June) as opposed to reopening them in the next month. To get the behemoth system up and running again, to include getting staff to and from, getting food service prepped, teachers and staff back on board, curriculum back on track, supplies back and inventoried, budget reopened etc., would be a huge undertaking, and would all have to be done with the requirement that it would be safe, sans risk of lawsuits, and just worth it in general. Either do that or wait until the risks go way down. And, as a previous post’s commenter and Tom pointed out, Disney’s literal world structure is very similar to life in a place/world like NYC. Just by it’s nature, there are more risks being immersed in that type of community.
One question I have is whether Disney would be taking daily random surface samples in the parks, hotels, and transportation, to test for the COVID-19 RNA, such as they’ve done for cruise ships.
Well that wasn’t very ladylike. Nor in any way informed…
The reality is that when DisneyWorld or any other establishment opens is not our decision to make. Ultimately, we all need to evaluate risk vs. benefit in regards to our travel decisions and in reality, we only hold a certain amount of control over situations. We trust those in charge to make sound decisions and control our controllables.
Ok i agree that Disney wait till it safe for the parks to get ready as possible to make it safe for all the parks get very crowded and it is hard to have a safe distant if 6 feet if they wait till 2021 i understand but i want my refund on my annual passes and wait till than life is precise to fie for a little bit of fun.