Visiting Disney World During Coronavirus Outbreak
Should I cancel my Walt Disney World or Disneyland vacation due to coronavirus? With three Disney theme park complexes closed due to COVID-19, this is now a common question–both from the perspective of whether travel is safe and what the likelihood is that the Florida and California parks will close. (Updated March 9, 2020.)
I’ll preface all of this by stating the obvious: I’m not a scientist, pandemic expert, or even in any way knowledgable of public health. I hate going to the doctor, and am irrationally scared of needles. (Like a brave trooper, I get the flu shot anyway!) I’m a staunch advocate of specialized expertise over internet fear and rumor-mongering. Accordingly, this should not be viewed as a credible source of information regarding staying safe and healthy.
For all of that, we recommend consulting the World Health Organization’s basic protective measures against the new coronavirus (COVID-19) and advice for the public, the U.S. Department of State’s Alert Bulletin about the Current State of Novel Coronavirus, and Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Situation Summary. The perspective this post will offer is how coronavirus might impact travel to Walt Disney World, and what you can do to be prepared…
Let’s start with the latest updates as of March 9, 2020. Currently, there are 18 positive cases of COVID-19 tied to Florida, including one in Central Florida. There have been 2 deaths in Florida due to coronavirus, both patients were in their 70s with underlying health conditions. It’s worth noting that just over 200 people have been tested in Florida, so those numbers could be underreported. (All per the Florida Department of Health).
At Walt Disney World, we’ve noticed a significant increase in hand sanitizer stations throughout the parks, plus at the entrances of every resort, and inside most restaurants. That’s definitely a good start. Beyond that, things mostly seem like business as usual at Walt Disney World. There have been no reductions in meet & greets, buffets, or queue changes as a result of coronavirus.
Conferences and special events are already being cancelled throughout Florida, including at Walt Disney World. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings has stated that several major conferences have already canceled, which were expected to bring $154 million to the local economy.
This extends to Walt Disney World. Cancellations are up at the resorts that host large amounts of special event business. This is being felt hardest at Coronado Springs Resort, which is heavily dependent upon conventions. Other resorts likely to be impacted include the All Stars, Yacht Club, Contemporary, and potentially others. Keep an eye out for deals at all of these.
With that said, local officials and Visit Florida both have indicated that there has yet to be any impact on leisure travel. However, that could change as we approach the spring break season. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from several readers who intend upon cancelling or postponing trips, which is why we’ve lowered attendance projections for the next few months in our 2020 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars.
Disney’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. Pamela Hymel has released a coronavirus statement, indicating that the company is monitoring the situation in light of recent developments with the spread of the virus in Florida. Here’s what Disney released, which is intended to address guest questions about coronavirus:
As part of our commitment to the health and well-being of our cast, guests and the larger community, we are carefully monitoring this evolving situation and are in regular contact with health agencies for information and guidance. Our parks and resorts are welcoming guests as usual and we continue to implement preventive measures in line with the recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other health agencies.
Our parks and resorts have high standards of cleanliness, which assists with illness prevention, and we have health and safety protocols in place, such as:
- Training for cast members, with ongoing reinforcement on a regular basis
- Defined cycles for frequent cleaning and disinfection of targeted areas
- Easy access to handwashing facilities and hand sanitizers
- Quick response to spills, trash and other situations
- End of day sanitation procedures for restroom, kitchen, and other facilities
- Frequent cleaning and “wash down” of outdoor locations, including walkways and queues
Additionally, our onsite health teams and leaders are communicating with our cast members about illness prevention, including the guidance of the CDC. The CDC recommends everyday preventive actions to help stop the spread of germs, such as staying home when sick, washing hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, following proper respiratory cough etiquette, avoiding close contact with people who are sick and avoiding touching eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
For our part, we’ve been closely monitoring coronavirus for over the last month-plus to see how it’d impact our potential trips abroad this spring. I’ve become obsessive, reading about a half-dozen articles per day. If I’ve gleaned one thing from those resources, it’s that the coronavirus situation continues to develop. Quite simply, there’s a lot of fluidity to this. The status of coronavirus today almost certainly won’t be the same next week.
At present, there no limitations or advisories for domestic travel within the United States. Nor, to my knowledge, have other countries issued bulletins or elevated risk levels for the US as a result of coronavirus. Public health experts are only advising proper precautions: frequently washing hands, avoiding touching unwashed hands to the face, maintaining social distancing from anyone who is coughing or sneezing, following good respiratory hygiene, and using hand sanitizer to reduce risk.
Public health experts also state that the biggest health risk for domestic travel right now is the flu. While some areas do have more reported coronavirus cases and preventative measures are being taken in some cities, no part of the United States is considered higher risk for coronavirus than any other. That could change if or when more sustained person-to-person spread in the community occurs.
When it comes to travel, the World Health Organization has indicated that an airplane cabin by itself isn’t more conducive to spreading infection, but proximity of passengers does matter. Flights by themselves aren’t considered higher risk, except that they are crowded situations. Consider, wiping down surfaces you are going to touch on airplanes or other public spaces, such as hotel rooms.
Paper surgical masks are effective at keeping you from spreading disease if you are sick, but not totally effective at blocking you from ingesting coronavirus. If you have a cough, consider wearing a mask out of common courtesy. Even before coronavirus this was incredibly common in Asian cultures, which is why it’s more common to see masks abroad. (But don’t hoard masks.)
When it comes to traveling during the coronavirus outbreak, some CYA advice you’ll commonly see is to purchase travel insurance with a “cancel for any reason” policy, and to use a travel agent. I don’t disagree with the latter part of this–they can deal with making cancellations or changing plans for you. In the case of Walt Disney World, that means waiting on hold for hours when call volume spikes. (As is always the case around hurricanes.)
In circumstances like this, I’m actually not a staunch advocate of travel insurance. If it’ll give you peace of mind, great. Go for it. Just be aware that if the situation deteriorates considerably and travel is interrupted within the United States, airlines will begin waiving change or cancellation fees (albeit usually with the caveat that you receive a credit for travel within a year, not a cash refund).
If the worst happens and Walt Disney World is forced to close, you’ll receive a full refund. (In that scenario, a lot of Walt Disney World’s hurricane policy would likely be applicable–read our Tips for Visiting Walt Disney World During Storm Season for more elaboration on all of this.) Other travel providers will likewise follow suit. Travel insurance with the option to cancel for any reason is best for those who want to cancel before travel businesses start closing or canceling.
One thing I would recommend if you haven’t already booked a Walt Disney World vacation for 2020, is to consider something that can be modified or offers free cancellation. Not just because of the above concerns, but because both approaches will allow you to apply discounts or rebook if better deals become available. (Again, travel agents/Authorized Disney Vacation Planners can help with this.)
With the nonstop news coverage of coronavirus, Walt Disney World’s hotel occupancy rate and attendance is bound to drop irrespective of any actual threat levels. In other posts, we belabor the point that WDW doesn’t offer deals out of corporate benevolence, but to fill hotel rooms. It’s possible, if not probable, that discounting will become more aggressive as coronavirus fears grow.
We normally are strong advocates of Priceline Express Deals, Airbnb vacation home rentals, and other third party deal hacks. However, this is one scenario where you might want to stick with options that are easier to cancel or modify. There are obviously no guarantees, but you could end up saving more money that way.
There’s also the possibility that Walt Disney World, Disneyland, and/or Disneyland Paris will close at some point. Shanghai Disneyland and Hong Kong Disneyland have each been closed for over one month, and likely will be for at least another. Tokyo Disney Resort is temporarily closed for 2 weeks, which is likely to be extended.
The difference with the Asian resorts is government involvement. Japan’s Prime Minister has “strongly encouraged” closures to curtail the spread of coronavirus but–more importantly–prevent Tokyo’s 2020 Summer Olympics from being cancelled. Oriental Land Company, the owner of Tokyo Disney Resort, acquiesced to these requests. The Shanghai and Hong Kong parks are both partially state owned or sponsored, meaning Disney also did not have the final say there.
Generally speaking, countries in Asia have employed more draconian quarantine measures. Culturally, it’s not as easy to see Americans being receptive to some of this. It’s also more difficult to envision the United States taking steps to stifle the economy or business interests.
This isn’t to say that Walt Disney World or Disneyland will or will not close. That could happen in the weeks or months to come as coronavirus spreads within the United States. Alternatively, if attendance plummets due to fear, closures of the parks or various resorts could become a business decision. We’re likely a while from that happening, though. (Disneyland Paris is a different story entirely.)
Or, nothing could happen at all. Walt Disney World and Disneyland could install more hand-sanitizing or hand-washing stations, in-room fliers and in-park signs about best practices, or even hand sanitizer bottles to hotel guests.
Recent precedent suggests these are the most likely scenarios, as variations of these things occurred during the peaks of H1N1 and the Zika virus. Coronavirus is obviously different than both of these pandemics, but best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Neither Walt Disney World nor Disneyland closed during those outbreaks.
Planning a trip or visiting Walt Disney World or Disneyland in the near future ultimately comes down to comfort and your personal risk tolerance. Are you elderly, do you have a chronic medical condition, or are otherwise immunocompromised? Will you be nervous, stressed-out, or in a constant precautionary state that prevents you from enjoying your vacation?
Obviously, those are personal questions that only you can answer. We’d once again reiterate that there are currently no travel advisories or restrictions concerning domestic travel, and that it’s important to approach the decision rationally without being overcome by paranoia or hysteria. At the same time, traveling in a state of fear is not going to be fun, either.
My perspective is likely to be different than that of others. I have an incredibly high risk tolerance, and I’m not personally concerned about contracting coronavirus. On an individual level, it comes down to a risk assessment. This is something everyone is doing on a daily basis, and we all take measured risks–driving in a car, taking a flight, riding a bicycle, playing a sport, swimming, drinking alcohol, and so on.
Often, analysis is shaped by worries of catastrophic consequences, even when seemingly mundane everyday activities pose greater actual risk. For instance, you might now fear sinking on the Jungle Cruise, when overdosing on awesomeness while watching Country Bear Jamboree is an exponentially greater risk. And yet, one we all eagerly take multiple times per trip. (“Don’t be afraid your life will end; be afraid that it will never begin.” ~Big Al, probably.)
(UPDATE: After reading more about the importance of collective and individual measures to flatten the epidemic curve, I’m now reevaluating future plans.)
This isn’t to minimize coronavirus. By most reasonable accounts of public health experts, it poses a serious threat and likely will significantly impact daily life in the United States at some point. Dr. Nancy Messonnier, Director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, has warned that if person-to-person spread picks up, further measures might need to be taken, including school and workplace closures, voluntary home quarantines, implementing cleaning measures, and other things.
Ultimately, our recommendation is to trust public health experts and agencies, and make appropriate changes to your daily life and travel plans only if or when necessary. Unless the fear of coronavirus will ruin your vacations, there’s really no reason to act preemptively. To the contrary, you might be able to take advantage of deals or lower crowds if you simply follow pertinent official recommendations and don’t give in to hysteria by canceling your Walt Disney World, Disneyland, or other vacation plans.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you plan on cancelling or postponing travel plans to Walt Disney World, Disneyland, or beyond as a result of coronavirus? Will you continue monitoring the situation and potentially cancel? Alternatively, will you book a trip because of coronavirus if prices or attendance drops? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We went to Walt Disney world December 28- January 5th.
We had a group of 35 people
New Year’s Eve 8 of us got sick with the flu.
On the 2nd 4 were so sick we went to urgent care in Orlando.
When we called the 6th urgent care in Orlando all of them were a 3-4 hour wait.
We went to one a 2 hour wait full of vacationing families all sick it look liked a Toy Story ride line.
Every nearby pharmacy was out of all cold medicine including gift shops
The Wallgreens was out of the antibiotics the doctor prescribed.
We stayed in the hotel room thru the 5th.
We did contact Disney and they gave us a one day ticket with no expiration date.
All 8 were sick thru January 10th.
Get flu shots.
Bring your own medicine.
Anti bacterial lotion
All 8 were from different parts of the country.
We’ve been at Animal Kingdom Jambo for the last week. No lack of crowds but we were able to extend for a few nights, same room, which is rare.
As for the “virus” it’s basically the flu and a rather light one. Unless you have some underlying medical problems don’t worry.
Funny thing. We stopped by the DVC desk and ran into a PhD microbiologist. His advice was the same as mine, and I’m just a lowly Engineer. Forget the sanitizer, soap and water is best. Keep hands away from face, masks don’t work, cough into elbow, enjoy Disney. He stated that this “virus” is statistically no worse than any other and that media hype is what is making it seem like the end of the world. His main concern was the economic impact and he theorized that might be how it was meant to be “weaponized” if at all. Interesting!
Anyway, it is going to be 78 today and we intend to enjoy! Oh yeah, we ate at STK last night. Steak was great, sauteed mushrooms not so much. Got into a semi-private room where it wasn’t too noisy. Will definitely go back.
my concern is that i have a family member who is older and has those underlying conditions. she is concerned and by extension, so am i. for some of us, we do have to take those extra steps and feel isolated for safety. it’s not simply the flu, and i wish people would stop making that equation. there is no vaccine and no medication to combat this right now. if there were, i think we’d all feel better. but this has put me on edge simply because of having someone in that higher risk category.
I agree. There is a vaccine (which has varying levels of efficacy every year, granted) for the flu. There is no vaccine whatsoever for the coronavirus. I have a young child with asthma, who was hospitalized for almost a week a couple of years ago from a bad cold, not even the flu, which then turned into pneumonia. My kid has also had the flu last year and it was comparatively mild, thank in large part to the vaccine (I assume) and early administration of Tamiflu.
I’m reading that kids get milder cases of the coronavirus generally, but then there are statements that it affects people with underlying chronic health problems (e.g., asthma) worse than “regular” people. So I don’t know where my asthmatic child will land on the continuum of illness if infected with the coronavirus. I do agree, however, that it seems that, unless you are elderly and/or have an underlying chronic health issue, you likely will recover just fine from the coronavirus. I just don’t know what would happen to my child. And that’s generally terrifying. Add in some people’s generally cavalier attitudes about the severity of the coronavirus being “no big deal” and I am concerned that people in the US will not take adequate preventive measures to stop its spread, leaving me to wonder what steps I need to take to isolate my family during this time to protect my child. I’m hoping that as the virus spreads, the CDC will at least be able to give some guidance about the risks for children with underlying chronic health issues being infected with the coronavirus so I can make a more informed decision.
WHO is a UN agency. They seemed to downplay the corona virus risk for some time, for some unknown reason. The other agencies might be more dependable. There are a few people blogging/ or are on Twitter aggregating info. on the corona virus in a fairly consistent way.
I wouldn’t believe any United Nations agency even if they said the sun rose in the East. I’ll put my money on advice from the CDC, thank you.
I forgot that China parks are also government owned but I did remember Japan is. Your perspective is very helpful and does a great job of not establishing fear. I agree the whole situation is extremely fluid and coukd easily change. I’m from Chicago so we have had this for a while so my fear level isn’t higher than it is for the flu. I’m still planning on going on my trip unless parks are closed during my trip but by early May hopefully the virus will fizzle out.
Tokyo Disney Resort is not government-owned.
There, it comes down to the Japanese government pressuring businesses to close to salvage the Olympics and prevent a cancellation of those. The stakes are larger than they might seem, as Japan has invested a ton of money in the Olympics, and the marketing benefits are instrumental to the country’s push for tourism to make up a larger segment of the economy.
Well said! Your statement on fear philosophy, comparing the Jungle Cruise to the Country Bear Jamboree says it best. Thank you for these calm, informative words.
What’s your take on Paris at this stage? What do you mean by…
“Disneyland Paris is a different story entirely”?
We are watching and waiting as we are due to visit Paris soon.
Tom, thanks for all the insight!
Kate, we’re in the same situation. We’re Americans living in the UK and we booked Disneyland Paris for the first week in April. So far, I only have the Disney portion of the trip booked and no travel insurance. I figure, we’re going as long as they don’t close the park and if they do close the park Disney will provide a refund. But I’ve got to start planning travel there and back, and the initial thought was to included a few days in Paris as well. All of that will of course need travel insurance and I feel like we’re coming down to the wire on making arrangements! But it feels like things are moving toward a closure, especially after the Louvre closing……
I simply think that Disneyland Paris is much more likely to close. It’s an easier decision to make there, especially as travel to and within Europe plummets. That means attendance at Disneyland Paris will follow suit, so there will likely soon be a point that it’s practical to close the park even if it’s not strictly necessary.
Personally, I would not cancel a trip to Europe at this time (the lack of crowds is too enticing), but that’s just me!
We leave for Paris in the next couple of weeks and are still going to DLP for a day. I’m not changing my plans unless they close. I’ve never been to Europe and I’m going to enjoy my trip. We’ll just do a lot of hand washing and bring lots of wipes.
I live in Spain and I’ve booked to go to WDW for Easter.
We have a flight from Spain to London and then to Orlando.
I am 74 years old, and with God’s help I’ll still go.
The irony for us is that we just cancelled a trip to the Asia resorts because they are closed because of COVID-19 and rebooked Disneyland California and a San Diego cruise to Vancouver and may have to watch the whole thing unfold again.
Our policy this time is we will go unless we can’t. We are not from the USA so if the park is closed and the cruise cancelled, and we are still allowed to fly, we will do a road trip from LA to Vancouver.
I do wonder what will happen if and when this reaches Pandemic status and most countries have cases what the policy will be for travel.
We are going the first of June . We are going to take the wait and see what happens approach. I going to wait until last of April to see how the virus is going. If it’s worst we will just cancel. We love Disney, but not enough to be sick.
Not that it’s the same type of scenario but the best deal I ever received at WDW was post 9/11 in October. When the general public is worried and they stay home for any reason Disney will drop prices to drive demand. I stayed Savana view at AK
For just over 200 dollars with tax. If this gets bad (which I hope it does not) you could get amazing deals. And have the park at such low levels of attendance that you cold ride all rides in MK by 2pm as I did. That trip was one of the most memorable due to almost having the park to ourselves. I agree 100 percent with Tom if you can handle the risk there is no reason to stay home!
Personally, I think it is the same type of situation.
In fact, I almost used that comparison in the post, but wasn’t sure how people would interpret it. My guess is that this will follow a similar trajectory, with there being a lull in bookings (and surplus of deals) due to fears, with bookings steadily picking up when either coronavirus or the fear around it dies down.
There is a huge difference here Tom – that I hope you will address. Going to the park after 9/11 was a risk / reward decision in which you were absorbing the risk from your own decision. With the coronavirus, you are creating a public health risk and endangering the lives of other people. You might be low risk, but others are not!
We just canceled our WDW trip for this summer. But not because of coronavirus fears. We switched to Disneyland because we want a better shot at getting on Rise of the Resistance. That’s the real crisis. And well, without Spaceship Earth this summer it just isn’t a WDW trip. We will keep our Disneyland reservations because if the park closes or LA becomes a hot zone we can always reschedule for a later time. That would just give me more time to save up for lightsabers and droids.
I will still be booking my next trip but directly with Disney this time. I t is easy to cancel and they are quick to give full refunds if needed. It sounds like Paris May be closing and it would be naive to think it won’t continue to spread in the US.
yes your right in this regard.
Yes, you are right in this regard.
“It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear,” Trump said at the White House Thursday.
“Stupid is as stupid does”, Forrest Gump
I get what he was saying. As warmer weather arrives, this virus will trickle out of existence, like most other viruses do this time of year. Look at all the hyped-up illnesses in the past- we are no longer concerned with many of these.
i am hoping for a very early spring so it can help combat this.
The novel cor0onavirus is now being spread in South America, Australia, New Zealand, and even Iran (a country with a lot of desert). I don’t know the specifics of the climate of Iran (other than it being a desert/mountain nation largely), but it is still SUMMER in the other continents/countries I listed above. The coronavirus is NOT related to the flu other than being a respiratory virus, they are caused by completely unrelated types of viruses (flu being caused by one of any number of strains of the influenza virus, this coronavirus being caused by, well, one particular strain of coronavirus, CoViD-19). While I certainly HOPE that the coronavirus is not as susceptible to being spread in warmer months, there is so far absolutely no support for the President’s hopeful statements that the heat will somehow bring the spread of the coronavirus to a halt. Stating that “the virus will trickle out existence” is not supported by anything other than conjecture. That said, I hope you (and the President) are right….. :o)
As a practicing internist in Pa, I think the best advice you can give anyone is what you did by referring your readers to the three agencies in the beginning of your article.
As method of spread, treatment options and prevention are better understood with this new virus those will be your most reliable resources.
What I have wondered is what Disney is doing nightly to lesson (decontamination) the spread of any germs or virus that may be on park infrastructure?
We are prepaid for a trip end of March. Unless they close WDW we are going. The Disney Vac. Club rental was 5k, pandemics are NOT covered!
Yep, that’s us over Easter and June. DVC point rentals. What does Disney do for DVC owners if they close for a hurricane? Are there DVC in Asia to set precedence for this closure?
I did get one of the Chase Sapphire visa travel reward cards, it has built in ‘any reason’ travel insurance. I’ll use it to get Our Nov trip DVC rental.
In all likelihood, Disney Vacation Club will refund the points to the owners if the parks or resorts close. That’s what has happened during past hurricanes.
Whether DVC rental companies will then refund money is another story entirely. I’ll reach out to both major ones and see if I can get comment from them.
I am really stressed about this. I rented points from the DVC rental store and as I had to have travel insurance anyway as I am coming from overseas I didn’t take out their insurance. Now I cant get a clear answer from my travel insurer what will be covered if Disneyworld is closed so I’m completely stuffed.
If I hear that Disney refunds the DVC points to the owners, allowing them to re-rent them to someone else at a later time while still keeping all of my money I’m going to be telling people not to do business with the DVC rental store for the rest of my natural life!!!!! I’ll just keep hoping for good news in the meantime.
I’m in the same boat. I did purchase travel insurance through the DVC rental store, but I can’t get a clear answer from them over whether it includes park closures :/ Here’s hoping for the best for all of us!
Thank you for this post Tom- you always write about just the thing I’m interested in learning more about. Our trip is in two weeks and I’ve been a little concerned about how this might affect our WDW vacation. I’m still 100% looking forward to it though.
If the park is open when our trip comes around in a couple of months, we will go. We run the risk of infection with some nasty bug every time we travel. On past vacations, I’ve gotten noro, flu (despite flu shots), and countless colds. Remember swine flu? We survived it, and we didn’t even get that from travel–just our home town. The hysteria over this particular bug is just silly, especially when given that the limited testing means nobody even knows what the mortality rate is. I’m just thankful that unlike flu, this seems not to be severe in children.
Thanks for this rational analysis as always, Tom. Any idea what Disney did during the hurricanes for DVC members? We have just two nights booked in April on points, and we’ll be there, pending a resort wide closure. If it happens that Animal Kingdom Lodge literally shuts its doors, does Disney just refund our points? That seems like it would be disastrous for DVC. It’s only two nights in a value studio worth of points so it wouldn’t devastate our future vacation plans to lose them, but no one wants to lose points!
Thank you for this article. Very thoughtful and measured. We have cruise booked in September and stay at Poly prior. Celebrating our 40th wedding anniversary and I sincerely don’t want to cancel. My husband is a physician and is concerned because I am on immunosuppressant medication. We are closely monitoring this But meanwhile I’m booking all the Palo I can when window opens!
I actually just booked a mother/son WDW trip today for July because I don’t feel comfortable booking a family summer trip overseas quite yet. The virus is definitely affecting our travel plans because we had been thinking about Asia or Europe and usually I would have the flights booked by now. When we went to TDS years ago the Journey to the Center of the Earth ride was broken down so I really want to go back. Hopefully things will calm down and we can still do that but for now I’m looking forward to a budget WDW trip, as long as things are under control.
“Often, analysis is shaped by an irrational worries of catastrophic consequences, even when seemingly mundane everyday activities pose greater risk. ”
The problem is that humans tend to overestimate how bad the average situation will be — because of the frequently sensationalist nature of journalism, and our tendency to fixate on new dangers — while at the same time substantially underestimating the tail risk.
It’s the tail risk that gets me here. Seems not worth the upside, esp given that we’re likely in the silent gestation period.