2019 Disney World Crowd Predictions: When to Go & Avoiding Star Wars Land Lines
Walt Disney World’s early opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge has upended crowd calendars, upsetting many vacation planners in the process. Here we’ll offer predictions for the best and worst months to visit for the remainder of 2019, which we’ve revised following the announced date for Rise of the Resistance. At the end, we’ll also pick three weeks we’d visit. (Last updated July 13, 2019.)
Initially, I was going to simply update our 2019 Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World post to account for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. However, that post takes a more holistic approach to rankings based upon weather, special events, entertainment, and more. Crowds are just one factor used to rank the months.
Judging by recent comments, many of you are primarily concerned with crowds this year, and are wanting to find time for a trip when Walt Disney World is not packed. To that end, we’re offering the below rankings on the sole basis of our Walt Disney World crowd predictions…
Before we dig into the Walt Disney World crowd ‘calendar’ for 2019, some caveats are in order. First, these are our best guesses. Literally no one has perfect foresight as to what Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will bring with it. If someone claims to be able to precisely forecast Walt Disney World crowd levels post Star Wars land’s opening, you should be highly skeptical.
Even DisneyWorld.com has a warning at the top of its ticket page stating, “access to the park, land and experiences may be restricted or unavailable depending on guest demand and other factors” as if to say, we don’t know how busy it’ll be, but prepare for the worst.
Second, there will be good days in bad months and vice-a-versa. The reason I’m hesitant to make more granular predictions is because it’s really difficult to do so with a high degree of accuracy. Extraneous variables like weather (good or bad) can impact wait times, as can Disney’s manipulation of attraction capacity, or even a large conference being held on-site. Moreover, Disney could release new discounts, promotions, or limited-time entertainment offerings to lure guests into the parks.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that the Walt Disney World crowd calendar game is a far from precise science, and that’s especially true for 2019 as we are likely to experience a summer lull in the lead-up to Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, followed by who-knows-what in the aftermath.
Nevertheless, we’re doing our best with these rankings, and offering some explanation as to why we feel the way we do about each month. Please note that these rankings are only applicable for the remainder of 2019, so do not rely on them for 2020…
6. December – This is not exactly a bold prediction, especially now that Disney has announced the Opening Date for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. This is the flagship attraction of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, and many fans undoubtedly will be waiting until its debut to visit. Accordingly, we now expect December to be the busiest month of 2019–by a long shot.
Aside from a few pockets early in the month, December has become one of the busier months of the year, irrespective of Star Wars Land. People love seeing the parks decked out for the holidays, the temperate weather, and Christmas events. For 2019, expect that to be compounded by those who postponed trips last year, waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge to open. We would anticipate this demographic to disproportionately favor December.
5. November – Pretty much the same story here. Christmas kicks off at Walt Disney World in early November, and it starts drawing people the week before Thanksgiving through the end of the month.
If you’re looking for a “sweet spot,” we’d recommend aiming for around November 10-22, 2019. This should be the best mix of nice weather, lower crowds, Christmas decorations, and just maybe Rise of the Resistance having soft openings towards the end of that timeframe. Any dates after November 22, 2019 are likely to see increasingly elevated Thanksgiving crowds.
4. October – This month went from being one of the best options to one of the worst in the span of only a few years. Last year, there was a bit of a lull in October, but it was still pretty far from off-season.
We’d again expect October to be a very busy month thanks to conventions, school breaks, and tourists who want to double-dip on Star Wars Land and Halloween.
3. July – The likelihood of a pre-Star Wars slump this summer is a real one, and the main reason we expect June and July to be less busy than last year.
Promotions have already been released to entice people to visit in July, with Free Dining beginning immediately after the Independence Day holiday. We predict that this won’t be enough to offset those sitting out this summer, making July a slightly better option.
2. August – If you don’t want to gamble on our advice below–and frankly, we don’t blame you since these are uncharted waters–then late August will be your best and safest option, so long as you’re out a few days before Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. There’s also the potential for Soft Openings of Star Wars Land in late August.
That window will offer the best combination of schools going back into session, poor weather discouraging others from visiting, and a lack of anyone who is waiting for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Those two weeks or so have the potential to be the absolute least busy of the year, but when averaged with the beginning of the month and last few days, we’re still giving the edge to September.
1. September – To be entirely honest with you, predicting September will be the best month to visit Walt Disney World in 2019 is the pretext for this entire article. Our Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge Opening Date Announcement post has over 200 comments; going through those, many are from people who planned September trips and are freaking out about crowds.
We made this ‘September will be best’ prediction back when the opening date for Galaxy’s Edge was announced, and most readers feared the worst, and were skeptical of our prediction. If you’ve read our Why Are Star Wars Land Crowds So Low? post, which is based upon the first month-plus of the land being open at Disneyland, this is exactly the scenario that has played out there. Of course, Walt Disney World is a totally different beast, but we still think there’s good reason to not expect the absolute worst.
There’s no doubt September 2019 will be more crowded than last September. There are a couple questions that should be asked. First, how crowded will it be as compared to last year? Second, how crowded will September 2019 be as compared to October 2019 and pretty much forever beyond?
It’s tough to answer the first question with any degree of certainty (although Walt Disney World not raising ticket prices for September 2019 does say something about their internal forecasts). As to the second question, we’re moderately confident that September 2019 will be better than pretty much any month between now and September 2020.
My reasons for picking September as the least-crowded month are three-fold. First, history. September has been by far the least crowded month for the last several years, if not longer. Last September the parks were veritable ghost towns on some days, and it was consistently the least busy we’ve seen Magic Kingdom in years.
Second, the main factors causing September to be uncrowded–school schedules and weather–aren’t impacted by the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Unless a national holiday is declared for the opening of Star Wars land–and with Disney’s power, perhaps that isn’t entirely outside the realm of possibilities–most schools are going to be in session during the entirety of September. For a lot of people, September is simply an undesirable month to visit, and that’s true irrespective of Star Wars.
Finally, those planning for Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge might be inclined to avoid September as it’s the immediate aftermath of the opening and because the flagship Rise of the Resistance attraction won’t be open then. Based on the above, ‘immediate aftermath’ reasoning is probably fallacious, but many people will no doubt have that perception, thinking it’s a savvy move to “wait out” the crowds until December.
On the other hand, waiting for the whole land to open certainly isn’t a terrible idea and there are no doubt a decent number of people who will do that. Those guests will be inclined to roll the dice that December (when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge was originally rumored to open) is the safer bet.
I would anticipate appreciably larger crowds beginning in October and crescendoing in December. In large part, this is simply the converse of the above points. Both annual and first-time visitors favor these months, for a variety of reasons ranging from school schedules to weather to other seasonal offerings.
With both Pandora and Toy Story Land, some of the worst waits of the year were not experienced in the few weeks after the lands opened, but in the October to December months. Aside from those who want to say they did it “first” on opening weekend, a good segment of the Disney fanbase (and casual visitors) are perfectly willing to wait a few months and time their visit for new offerings when it’s more convenient for them, holidays are being celebrated, weather is nicer, and the opening surge has subsided (except, again, this last one is erroneous reasoning).
Again, all of these are merely our predictions–but that’s the best anyone can offer at this point. For what it’s worth, if we were only booking one trip for the rest of the year, we’d choose November 15-21, 2019. That’s based on a number of factors, including weather, Christmas, and crowds. (Note: we picked these dates before Rise of the Resistance’s opening date was announced–we’d now be tempted to choose December 1-7, 2019 in light of that…or just hope for soft openings during our original date range.)
If we were only worried about crowds and didn’t care about Star Wars at all, we’d pick August 20-26, 2019. If we were worried about crowds but did care about Star Wars, we’d choose September 8-14, 2019. No matter which dates you choose, expect Walt Disney World crowds, generally speaking, to get worse later in the year.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our rankings? Which month do you think will be least crowded for the remainder of 2019 at Walt Disney World? Most crowded? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Just got back from our WDW May 5-12 trip. the crowds were not bad. I found I just can’t take the Florida heat anymore; looking at the first week in February for our next trip, What are the pros and cons for that time of the year?
Pros- Usually less crowded, crowds get bigger as Daytona 500 draws near. Most attractions less than a 60 minute wait.
Cons- Weather, ive been down in february and been in shorts and 80s and some years ive been down there it has gotten into the high 30s at night, but high 50s to low 60s during the day. Weather is really the crapshoot at this time of year.
Thanks for the info 50’s and 60’s during the day for me wold be ideal.
I’m totally freaked out, we had planned for a week at WDW during one of the least busy times of the year as a Adult-Only trip…is Sept. 13th – 21st now going to be crazy busy?
(BTW, love reading your reviews etc. and am really excited about Food & Wine Festival)
Thanks.
Hello!
My husband and I are going November 9-17. I am a Star Wars fan as is he and I’m hoping that being 2 months after Galaxy’s Edge opens, crowd levels wont be as bad. I planned for that week because I wanted to avoid Jersey week which I heard is always the first week of November. Do you think the dates we’re going will be busy or normal crowd levels? This will be our 4th time to Disney as well! We haven’t experienced Toy Story Land either!
We are headed there during the same time. Don’t worry yourself 🙂 ” Jersey Week” this year is 11/4-11/8 (No school Tuesday, Thursday or Friday) I can tell you from past experience that when a new area opens it is the most sought after for a least 2 years; with the first year being the most visited. So make your fast pass selections ahead of time and take it all in stride knowing it will be very populated at the new Star Wars area as well as Toy Story Land. Have an awesome time and I hope we have great weather, for me that means not too too humid 😉 !
Tom does your web site have a crowd calendar prediction for October 14-20, 2019…that’s when my family and I are going to Port Orleans Riverside. I know some web site calendars do predictions based on stats of Disney Resort bookings?? I am so nervous of being overwhelmed by the crowds, we usually go in Nov -Dec but my kids wanted to see Halloween decor at Disney this vacation.
Any thoughts on Jan 2020?
Go after rundisney is done. I couldn’t believe how crowded the parks were during the event! Dude, you just ran 26 miles! Go back to the hotels. Nope, they were out full force! Anddd. It was cold…
Awesome news!! We’ll be there August 18-23, primarily for my hubby’s ILTA conference. The kids and I will get to enjoy the parks hopefully crowd-free. Although we are huge Star Wars nerds, I think we’ll wait a while for GE. Curious as to when you think the hype and newness will calm down a little. I’m thinking about Oct-Nov next year. Or heck, we may even try to do a quick Feb 2020 trip focusing on GE before the marathon. Thanks for the well thought-out info.
Two Questions: Any idea when the Skyliner will open we are going to Disney around the 20th of September, do you think it will be open. How bad do you think the crowds will be at this time?
I am planning on taking my 2 grandsons to Disneyland at the end of September beginning of October 2020 as this is the New Zealand school holidays. Is this a good time to go?
I’ve seen other calendars that say the week after Thanksgiving is a low crowd time. Do you agree or think everything is now going to be busy because of the new Star Wars opening?
I went last year the week after Thanksgiving and it was fine. I’ve been going every year for a long time, mostly in October, and truly don’t think there’s a low season anymore. I avoid parks on the weekends and do other things, like resort hop or Disney Springs. Overall though it wasn’t too bad and would definitely go that week again! Christmas at Disney is awesome. 🙂
We have gone during that week and it was a wonderful week to be there. low crowds. you get Christmas decor and the end of Fall season in some places .
Planning our first trip to Disney right after Thanksgiving as well (Dec. 6-14). Hoping for less crowds after the holiday weekend and before the Xmas rush. A bit concerned about Star Wars crowds, but we’re not big fans so plan to avoid the area.
Is 5 days enough to experience the 4 main parks extensively if we were to go around November 4th to November 15th 2019?
We were there last year and it was really crowded. If this is your first time if you could I would add at least another day. Looking at the app the lines for some rides right now are very long. Avitar is right now says 165 minutes, yesterday I looked and it was over 200 mintues, other rides are at about an hour right now. Wednesday, April 24th at 10:30 am.
We will be visiting 11/2-11/8; how crazy might this week be? Thanks for the help!
We are thinking about booking a last minute trip for Memorial Day weekend but are concerned about the crowds? Do you think it is better to avoid this weekend or go with a good touring plan?
As far as holidays go, Memorial Day typically is not that bad. It’ll be slightly elevated, but not terrible like you might expect. This should be especially true this year, as there aren’t any big summer promotional kick-offs occurring on or around Memorial Day. Arrive at rope drop, have a good touring plan, and you should be fine.
Hi. We are a family from Sweden that plans for a vacation in Orlando during the summer of 2020. Is there a difference regarding the crowds in the parks, if we go there in beginning of June or July? Or is it the same all summer long?
Best Regards, Linda Holmberg
Hello Tom.
Love these updates.
If you can, I have a question. Most of your updates on these crowd projections indicate mid-August as a good time to go. We are flying in from Aug 6-15. We did this exact window last year and really made out well on the crowds (the heat, not so much). Do you expect this timeframe to hold as downtime again this year? The obvious reason I’m asking is due to the Galaxy’s Edge surge and the summer free dining promotion. I understand that we are in pre-Aug 29 but the fact that Disney is looking to generate pre-Galaxy’s Edge crowds into the late summer frame with the dining incentive has me wondering.
Your thoughts and Thank You for these updates?
Im going 11/16 to 11/23 and was nervous for the crowd level, but you are saying that it’s a good time to visit, right?
Us too! I’m hoping it will be okay! We are not Star Wars fans so we will steer clear of that
Do you have any predictions for Jan-March 2020?
What are your thoughts on whether or not you will need to be staying on property to access SWL much like they are doing at DL?
Technically, no. Effectively…maybe.
For at least the first several months (perhaps much longer), expect Walt Disney World to have earlier morning hours and later evening hours for resort guests. Meaning that by the time off-property guests are allowed to enter DHS, the wait times might already be multiple hours long.
I have been at WDW over. Christmas week for 30 years. In the beginning it was great as nobody traveled over the holidays. Now the place is so crowded you sometimes can’t move and lines are very long. We now have grandchild and a stroller which makes things more difficult. We are looking Into traveling in October this year.
We have a trip planned for 9/6-9/13, booked before the Star Wars news. I look weekly at the Disney site checking on resorts to see if they are filling up and to my delight and surprise every resort has rooms available for our dates. I am hoping this is good news for us! We went last year during almost the exact dates in November you suggest in you article and it was absolutely packed. Fingers crossed that people want to be there either at opening of GE or are waiting for everything to open as you stated. Fingers crossed for low crowds for us!
Please add me to your email blog list.
Hello
We have a trip booked 9/30-10/8… no school breaks and school pretty much will have just started…. with Star Wars opening…. thoughts on crowds for this particular time? Thanks for any thoughts
Hi Tom,
I looking into booking for the first week in October..what do you think about that week?
Thanks Jen
Hi There .. we have a trip booked the first week in October as well. We aren’t SW fans so I won’t venture to GE but we planned it specifically thinking it would open later in the fall … I hope the crowds won’t be too bad while we are there!