Post-Thanksgiving Crowds at Disney World: Holiday Hangover?
As predicted, Thanksgiving was the busiest week of this year at Walt Disney World…so far. This crowd report shares recent wait time data, the degree to which there was a post-holiday hangover, and thoughts on what’s likely to happen next with attendance this week and in early December 2021 at Walt Disney World.
Thanksgiving being an insanely busy week should be unsurprising. We predicted heavy crowds last week, and it was hardly a bold forecast. As we pointed out, Michiganders make the pilgrimage to Florida the week of Turkey Day to drown their sorrows in the magic before, during, and after another disappointing Detroit Lions performance. That’s exactly what happened–both the heavy crowds at Walt Disney World and another abysmal Lions loss.
The only mild surprise was that Genie+ Collapsed in Crowds at Walt Disney World during the holiday week. We don’t want to rehash what’s been covered thoroughly in a couple other posts; suffice to say, there were many problems with Lightning Lanes and the paid FastPass service during Thanksgiving week, from technical difficulties to limited ride reservation inventory…
Even that wasn’t a seismic shock. While Genie+ is based on the mostly well-regarded MaxPass at Disneyland, there are a few significant differences. Namely, that 3 of 4 parks at Walt Disney World have significantly fewer attractions than each of Disneyland Resort’s two gates. Only Magic Kingdom comes close, and it’s no coincidence that it had far fewer problems than Disney’s Hollywood Studios, Epcot, or Animal Kingdom.
On top of that, Disney has removed two popular attractions per park for Individual Lightning Lanes and there are no nighttime spectacular or parade viewing areas as possible selections, meaning Walt Disney World’s already thin roster for Genie+ was made even thinner. However, it was not just return times, availability, and capacity that caused complaints. The Genie system itself has been rife with glitches, errors, and problems–but again, we aren’t here to rehash all of that. Let’s turn to crowds as measured by (standby) wait times…
Let’s start with a high level look at weekly wait time averages across the entirety of Walt Disney World. (All graphs and wait time stats courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.)
This fully reflects the peak crowds of 2021 we’re referencing. As you can see, Thanksgiving week (the last red line) is plainly the highest bar on the graph, with an average wait time of 48 minutes. This surpasses the previous peak in July of 43 minutes, as well as last New Year’s week, which hit 44 minutes.
If you break it down by day, the graph becomes more difficult to read. If you squint just right, you can see an interesting trend play out over the course of the last week.
Wait times actually peaked at 53 minutes on “Thanksgiving Eve” (as it’s known in some cultures), steadily declined in the following two days, and plummeted over the weekend. Average wait times on Sunday (November 28, 2021) were only 37 minutes across Walt Disney World. That’s still a solid 8/10 on the crowd calendar, but when your frame of reference is a peak 10/10, an 8/10 feels blissfully uncrowded. It’s all relative.
This, like the rest of Thanksgiving week crowd patterns, was totally predictable. We’ll circle back to this in our summary and forecast at the end of the post.
Breaking this down by park, where we’ll start with Magic Kingdom.
We actually can’t see Thanksgiving week peak crowds playing out in Magic Kingdom. Some of this is accounted for by Disney Very Merriest After Hours throwing off attendance patterns, but not all of it. I’m actually at a loss as to why Magic Kingdom had 7/10 and 8/10 crowd levels for much of Thanksgiving week.
Since Park Pass availability was ‘sold out’ every single day, the only good explanation is that Disney aimed lower with its attendance cap for Magic Kingdom. Without reservations, this graph likely looks very different as WDW’s flagship castle park usually draws higher organic crowds than the other three.
Last week’s longest lines in Magic Kingdom were Jungle Cruise, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, and Space Mountain–all of which averaged over an hour. Pirates of the Caribbean tumbled from the top 5, below even Astro Orbiter. Splash Mountain was also a bit lower due to seasonality–it was cold out much of the day.
Amidst all the chaos with Genie, it is worth noting that Magic Kingdom wasn’t as negatively impacted on that front, either. Simply scoring Peter Pan’s Flight and Jungle Cruise Lightning Lane reservations would’ve saved an average guest ~160 minutes waiting in line. (This should reinforce why this duo is 1-2 in our Magic Kingdom Genie+ Priorities & Lightning Lane Ride Ranks.)
Continuing to Epcot, where crowd levels have spiked after settling into lower levels for much of the last few months. Last week averaged a 39 minute wait at Epcot, which may not seem bad, but it’s almost double the weekly average since July. As always, “feels like” crowds at Epcot–especially in World Showcase–are always worse on weekends.
This is where the lack of Park Pass availability comes into play. Epcot is almost always the last park to book up, and it becomes something of a “consolation prize” for those who are late to making reservations. They are thus “forced” to book Epcot and either Park Hop at 2 pm, or spend the day at Epcot. This isn’t speculative–there’s a spike in wait times whenever reservation availability tightens at the other parks. This is essentially the reverse of what happened at Magic Kingdom.
Animal Kingdom had its busiest days of the year Thanksgiving week, and by a wide margin. The average wait time was 67 minutes (!!!) on multiple days, and several were above an hour. This is significantly higher than even the worst date in July (60 minutes).
Avatar Flight of Passage averaged 137 minutes and Na’vi River Journey averaged 78 minutes. Kilimanjaro Safaris averaged 68 minutes, Expedition Everest averaged 43 minutes, and Dinosaur averaged 50 minutes. Lower numbers over the weekend actually brought these averages down considerably–both Pandora attractions were triple digits at one point, with Flight of Passage exceeding 160 minutes.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Another red line eclipsing all of days at the far right.
DHS continues to be the busiest park at Walt Disney World, but the entirety of Thanksgiving week was actually less crowded than the Saturday beforehand when wait times hit an average of 67 minutes. We were in DHS on that day, as well as later in the week, and you could truly feel the difference. I doubt many people in the park on only the “less crowded” days would have described the situation as “pleasant,” but after experiencing that Saturday…it felt like it to us!
The point we make whenever comparing the high averages in Animal Kingdom to those in Hollywood Studios is that the latter has more rides. By contrast, Animal Kingdom has more to do without waiting in lines–your cumulative time spent waiting in line for headliners at DAK is significantly lower than at DHS, regardless of averages. Disney’s Hollywood Studios is the most unpleasant park at Walt Disney World during busy weeks since it’s so top-heavy and there’s an insufficient supporting lineup to help absorb crowds. (See our pre-closure post: Disney’s Hollywood Studios: WDW’s Best Rides & Most Frustrating Park.)
During Thanksgiving week, Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance averaged a 156 minute wait time, Slinky Dog Dash averaged a 100 minute wait, Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway averaged 79 minutes, both Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster & Millennium Falcon Smugglers Run averaged 77 minutes, Toy Story Mania averaged 69 minutes, and Twilight Zone Tower of Terror averaged 62 minutes. That’s right–all headliners were over an hour. Even Alien Swirling Saucers was at 44 minutes. Alien Swirling Saucers!!!
What explains this drop in wait times over Thanksgiving weekend? Is it really a holiday hangover? Did people simply eat too much and forget to visit Walt Disney World?!
Like any weekend, a disproportionate number of guests between Thursday and Sunday would be locals. Floridians and other Annual Passholders who have done it all before have a lower ‘balking point’ for wait times, will skip attractions with long lines, and are generally more inclined to visit for atmosphere, dining, or other “non-ride reasons.” (See also, low wait times on October 1 despite bonkers feels like crowds.)
Although reductionist, calling this a ‘holiday hangover’ is probably apt. While Thanksgiving is the busiest travel week of the year in terms of arrivals, one thing that’s often missed is when people leave.
According to Orlando International Airport, the #1 and #2 travel days were Saturday and Sunday. That’s a lot of tourists heading home, which means they probably didn’t visit for full days over the weekend. (This is actually supported by a deeper dive into the data–wait times fell off a cliff in the evening on Saturday night. In general, evenings starting on Thursday were much less busy.)
Looking forward, you can expect crowd levels throughout this entire week on par with or below Sunday’s levels, which were an 8/10. Don’t be surprised if Wednesday and Thursday hit 7/10 levels, with most of the drop felt in Animal Kingdom and Epcot.
Our basis for that prediction at this point is basically fading travel numbers coupled with Park Pass availability. Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios are both unavailable for the next two days, which means those parks will likely plateau at recent levels (if not spike a bit as compared to the weekend, since it’ll be more tourists). After that, the calendar is green for the first two days of December and again over the weekend.
It’s no secret that this is our favorite week of the entire year in the parks. Our Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World for 2021-2022 also recommends a few specific weeks. This coming week is #1, and has been for years. We started traveling to Walt Disney World during the week after Thanksgiving back in 2008 when we were still in college, and instantly recognized it as a lull.
From the above post: “Our favorite week to visit Walt Disney World is the Sunday after Thanksgiving through the first Saturday of December. For this year, this means arriving on November 28, 2021. We think that’s the sweet spot for the best prospects of good weather, moderate crowds, and experiencing all of the Christmas festivities.”
Again, nothing new there–all of this is covered in our December 2021 Crowd Calendar. With that said, there are a couple wildcards this year.
First, the Reopening of International Travel’s Potential Impact on Walt Disney World Crowds. It might seem like this increase would be evenly distributed, but the British are incredibly savvy planners, and are more inclined to visit during off-peak times. (Also, Thanksgiving isn’t an international holiday, so foreign visitors wouldn’t have reason to visit last week versus this week. All things being equal, they’d be better off avoiding our Thanksgiving.)
Second, there’s no Pop Warner at Walt Disney World. It’s still happening in Central Florida–just up the road at Universal Orlando.
The jury is still out on how this will impact crowds at Walt Disney World later this week. It was always the case that Pop Warner did more to “feels like” crowds than wait times, and even that impact was disproportionately felt by certain guests–those who got stuck behind groups in line or who stayed at Value Resorts. (Hope no one reading this has Cabana Bay or Dockside Inn booked later this week!) We’re still expecting Pop Warner participants to make their way to Walt Disney World, but not nearly as many as normal.
Ultimately, we’re excited for the coming week at Walt Disney World. It’ll still be busy as compared to mid-August through October, but it should be a reprieve from the peak season crowds in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve. Of course, “should” is the operative word there, as trends at Walt Disney World have defied predictions and precedent many times in the last year-plus.
Regardless, we’ll be in the parks throughout this coming week. In part to take advantage of our favorite week of the year, but also to “research” the 2021 Epcot International Festival of the Holidays and how Genie+ is holding up on off-peak travel dates at Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Magic Kingdom. Hopefully we can also catch Merry Menagerie at Animal Kingdom, too. A lot to see and do this week–we’ll report back throughout the week on our experiences and what you can expect if you’re visiting during non-holiday weeks this Christmas season at Walt Disney World!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Predictions on crowds for December 2021 and the Christmas season? Thoughts on our prediction that this week won’t be as busy as Thanksgiving–or that it’s among the best weeks of the year to visit from a qualitative perspective? If you’ve visited in prior months during the last year, how did crowds compare between then and now? What did you think of the wait times? Any parks or times of day noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We’ve been here since thanksgiving day, and did genie+ for AK on Saturday and DHS on Sunday. Both worked great coupled with extra early hours. The only headliner we didn’t do between both parks was MMRR. Headed back to the hotel after lunch both days. (Saturday we made it back in time for the Michigan game!) Today was Universal, and I have to admit, we had a great time, paid for express and did every single thing we wanted to. We even got on Velocicoaster and Hagrid’s with manageable lines. We didn’t have to stress out about return times or dining reservations It pains me to say that even though Genie+ worked, the Disney days were still more stressful. Tomorrow is Epcot and my kids are dying to do Remy’s so fingers crossed..
11/30/21 ROTR was down most of the morning and there have no ILL all day.
The availability calendar looks much different today than it did yesterday with more fully available days and no fully booked days. Do you think that Disney increased capacity limits or is this from people adjusting their plans?
We’re going in early December for a family trip. We noticed DAS times were not great (fortunately they let you overlap with the prescheduled, but only 2 Safari times were left one day). ADRs were mostly gone but we don’t expect the restaurants to be busy. We’ve been really enjoying the walk up list. I hope they will always reserve some space for that. It’s phenomenal not to have to plan ahead but it’s weird to have no reservations for restaurants that are half empty.
Crowds will be what they will be. We did not have flexibility with our schedule this year (a family member is due in February, can’t push this trip off any further). The downside of DAS is the inflated wait times. It was 120 minutes for the Safari the other day…because that’s a real thing. We can’t ride very much right now or anything remotely fast so it’s frustrating when all the “usually walk on” rides have 2 hour waits listed. We usually do the Safari twice as a walk on.
My friend has a family trip a few weeks later and they can’t get their whole extended family in MK on the same day. It’s not even a holiday week. That’s crazy.
Waiting for passes to go back on sale because we are becoming a multigenerational household in February. One of the things our other family member was most interested in was Disney. I think there will still be a January/February lull but we’ll see.
We are here now since Saturday, and it is just downright pleasant all around. What a nice surprise after the stressful stories of thanksgiving vacationers and clear Disney fails last week.
Genie+worked very well for my family, increasing our daily spend significantly and/but making it possible to get a weekend Disney fix in just two (full) park days.
We are here this week as well and so far, going mornings and evenings with an afternoon break is going very well. We have hit most of the headliners in standby so far. We did HS standby this morning and are stacking Genie + for Magic Kingdom late this afternoon/evening. We decided to try it for at least one day. So far we have Peter Pan, Jungle Cruise and Haunted Mansion booked.
We are heading down tomorrow, heading back to So Cal on 12/8. Looking forward to whatever these next few days will bring us but hoping for manageable crowds.
Any insight on how character experiences work now? I’ve done some light searching and can’t find much information about it. The last time we were at Disney, character experiences were suspended, and prior to that I think we had to use fast passes (if I remember correctly, but that was about 5 years ago).
Watching Genie return times, it seems Genie+ would still have been quite effective on Sunday. Seems it does fine in crowds up to “8/10″… but it collapses under the stress of 10/10 crowds..
Wonder if they will make adjustments in time for Christmas…
Though the most effective adjustment they can make, which would upset a lot of people, it simply to expand the dynamic pricing significantly. Maybe Genie+ shouldn’t cost $15 during peak days… Charge $30 or $40… And ROTR, FOP, Remy, should each be over $25… Use the dynamic pricing to reduce demand. So it can be effective for those that purchase it. (Alternatively, make Genie+ only available to onsite guests)
Tom, We booked a family trip for this week – Thursday – Monday, based on your favorite week comments (our 2019 trip was perfect) and have park reservations but now are thinking of postponing due to three too young for vaccination and Omicron. Don’t think we can cancel the cool 7 bedroom Disney house we rented. Do you have suggestions of open-air things we could do beyond Disney Springs Christmas Tree Lane? Just coming up from Tampa and have one handicapped person with scooter. Been reading you daily for years. Thanks for keeping us in the parks even when we aren’t!
We should be in Orlando in just about 24 hours. We surprised the kids yesterday afternoon and they are beyond excited. I honestly think Disney’s unfriendly policies moving us to try Universal was a blessing. I would be stressing out right now after last week’s reports (first world problems I know). We are heading to Wilderness Lodge tomorrow evening for dinner, and might break down and do the After Hours event. A sucker really is born every minute.
Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and get to enjoy your park time this week.
Thanks for the shout out to me and my fellow Brits. We love a queue so we know how to leverage them!
Your advice is always great and this week is looking great too. We arrived on Saturday evening and have already done so much – currently in the Runaway Railway queue after being wowed by Batuu and Rise. They let us into the park at 7:30 and we’d already done both Batuu rides before ‘Early Entry’ officially started – I decided to push your ‘45 mins early’ advice even further to 75 mins and was richly rewarded.
Only bummer was Slinky was down so we’ll have to write that off today, the queue snaked all the way back to Runaway Railway, your ‘be prepared to alter plans’ advice was a lifesaver there.
Would be funny to bump into you in the parks next week or next. I feel like I owe you both a beer to thank you for the blog – both the advice and also keeping me entertained on the long wait between our planned May 2020 trip and this one!
It’s probably too early to draw any conclusions, but I’d be fascinated to hear what your take on what effect the new Omicron variant of Covid might have on crowd levels. If you want some anecdata, here in the UK there’s been a definite scramble for booster injections, and it’s clear from walking around in my city yesterday that more people are masking and distancing.
International flights to/from the UK to the US are still going, and we’re keeping fingers crossed that they will continue to do so; our trip is booked to start in under two weeks. We’ve talked about it as a family and still feel comfortable going (with sensible precautions), but I’m wondering: as happened with Delta, are we going to see cancellations and a drop-off in visitor numbers?
My guess (and that’s all it is–a guess) is that the US will see renewed interest in booster shots, masking, and other mitigation measures in the near-term, but an insignificant amount of travel cancellations unless/until Omicron causes a significant increase in cases. Right now, so little is known–it’s mostly fear in the unknown, but that doesn’t mean any worst case scenarios will play out.
Separate and apart from that, other regions of the United States are now getting hit with their own seasonal waves of cases–the same thing Florida saw over the late summer. I wouldn’t be surprised if that coupled with another holiday gathering-induced spike did put a damper on travel volume in the next month. By and large, I doubt that many people will change their holiday plans. Many already missed one Christmas with their families, and they aren’t going to miss another.