December Crowd “Slowdown” at Disney World
Wait times have dropped in the first two weeks of December 2021 at Walt Disney World, as predicted. This crowd report shares recent data, thoughts on what’s likely to happen next with attendance this week, and why wait times don’t tell the full story–or anywhere close to it–of high holiday season “feels like” crowds in the parks.
We’ve spent a lot of time in Walt Disney World the last couple of weeks, putting our money where our mouths are (I guess? We have APs so it’s not like we’re actually paying for each visit?) during our favorite week of the entire year at the parks. (See our Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World for 2021-2022.)
Despite it being our top pick, that’s largely for qualitative reasons and not purely wait times. The first week of December is the best week of the month, but it’s during a season that sees higher attendance across the board. Early to mid-December is still significantly busier than mid-September. The difference is that Walt Disney World doesn’t celebrate Christmas during mid-September (yet).
Anyway, our expectation for early December crowd levels were numbers in the 8/10 range, with some dates and parks dipping into 6/10 or 7/10 territory. Still on the upper end of the spectrum for the entire year, but lower relative to other holiday season dates.
Let’s turn to crowds as measured by (standby) wait times to see how those predictions turned out…
Let’s start with a high level look at weekly wait time averages across the entirety of Walt Disney World. (All graphs and wait time stats courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.)
As you can see, Thanksgiving week (the tallest red line) is plainly the highest bar on the graph, with an average wait time of 48 minutes. This surpasses the previous peak in July of 43 minutes, as well as last New Year’s week, which hit 44 minutes.
The week following Thanksgiving averaged a 36 minute wait time, which is down considerably but still sufficient for an 8/10 score on the crowd calendar. Last week averaged a 38 minute wait, good enough for a 9/10 on the crowd calendar.
Breaking it down by day, the peak of the Thanksgiving crowds dwarf wait times both before and after the holiday. Most of the dates after those highest highs are still in the 7/10 to 9/10 range, they just look a lot lower because Thanksgiving wait times were so much higher. The scale caps out at 10/10, otherwise those dates would be well above the upper limit.
This is part of why “feels like” crowds didn’t seem as bad after Thanksgiving for those who had experienced the parks in the days before the holiday. When your frame of reference is the highest 10/10 days of the year, a normal 8/10 feels blissfully uncrowded. It’s all relative.
Breaking this down by park, where we’ll start with Magic Kingdom. This is the only park for which we’re going to look at the daily averages, because it’s the only one that doesn’t have such a sharp contrast between Thanksgiving week and subsequent weeks.
Most of this is explained by the lack of Disney Park Pass availability for Magic Kingdom. Since reservations have been ‘sold out’ for almost every single day, there’s not much variance in crowds among days. Fully booked is fully booked. Perhaps the more surprising thing is that Disney has seemingly capped crowds at lower levels than back in July, when fully booked days peaked higher.
It should go without saying, but the above graph would look very different if Disney Park Pass were eliminated and organic demand were allowed to play out. Walt Disney World’s flagship castle park usually draws higher attendance than the other three–especially around Christmas.
At this point, the Disney Park Pass system doesn’t exist for keeping crowds low–that hasn’t been the case for ages. It’s to keep them manageable and prevent attendance from overwhelming staffing levels and available resources. Some fans have advocated for eliminating reservations “since the parks are busy regardless.”
This perspective overlooks the possibility that crowds could get so much worse if this were allowed to play out in free-for-all fashion. Walt Disney World still is not equipped to handle the same guest loads as in a normal year. I’m no fan of the reservation system in the long term, but it’s a “necessary evil” in the short term given the demand-capacity imbalance.
Since this crowd report encompasses the last two weeks, or essentially the first half of the month thus far, we’ll look at average attraction wait times for December 2021.
Jungle Cruise is averaging 85 minutes, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train is averaging 79 minutes, and Peter Pan’s Flight is at 78 minutes. Everything else is under an hour. Haunted Mansion is back in the top 5, as is Splash Mountain thanks to warmer temperatures the past couple weeks. Space Mountain is only at 39 minutes, which isn’t a huge surprise as we’ve seen its average dip lower due to lack of demand for Individual Lightning Lane.
As discussed in our “Sweet Spot” for Genie+ at Walt Disney World, this is the park least likely to have issues with the paid FastPass service. Even guests who take a more laid back approach with that should’ve had no issue scoring Lightning Lane reservations for Peter Pan’s Flight, Jungle Cruise, and Haunted Mansion at the absolute minimum. That would’ve saved an average guest roughly 3 hours waiting in line. (See our Magic Kingdom Genie+ Priorities & Lightning Lane Ride Ranks.)
Magic Kingdom is a great “training wheels” park for guests who are anxious about Genie+ but still wanting to test out the service. It’s the most forgiving park due to the higher ride count–figure out the learning curve here before moving on to Hollywood Studios, where the stakes are higher and it’s harder to do well.
Continuing to Epcot, where crowd levels are now back down to their pre-Thanksgiving levels once again. After spiking to a 10/10 for the holiday, levels are back to 6/10 the last two weeks.
As always, “feels like” crowds at Epcot–especially in World Showcase–are always worse on weekends and evenings. We’ve spent a lot of time at Epcot in the last few weeks and our anecdotal experience is that the park has felt very busy most nights.
Wait time data simply does not tell the full story–or even the best story–when it comes to Epcot. There are simply too few rides and too many other reasons why people visit Epcot. Still, this is a data-driven report and there’s no other good way of objectively measuring crowds. We’ll just emphasize that a holiday season 6/10 is much busier than a 6/10 in late June.
When looking at attraction wait times, you could actually argue that the opposite is true. That’s because June wait times would not have been skewed by Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, which doesn’t have a traditional queue.
Once you get past that, Frozen Ever After is still averaging a very high 86 minute wait, but Test Track and Soarin’ Around the World are both under an hour. The actual wait times for both–and everything else–plummet in the evening, as Future World becomes a ghost town and ~95% of the guests in Epcot all cram into World Showcase.
Animal Kingdom had its busiest week of the year Thanksgiving week, and by a wide margin. The average wait time was 59 minutes, which is significantly higher than the previous peak of 50 minutes at the end of July. (Note that both qualify as 10/10 on the crowd calendar.)
The two weeks since have been 8/10 and 9/10, respectively, which is still pretty high…but a significant comparative drop.
Thus far in December, Avatar Flight of Passage has averaged 93 minutes and Na’vi River Journey averaged 68 minutes. Kilimanjaro Safaris averaged 58 minutes, Expedition Everest averaged 25 minutes, and Dinosaur averaged 28 minutes.
We continue to recommend staying late at Animal Kingdom, even if that means arriving late. We experienced Expedition Everest and Dinosaur as walk-ons in mid-afternoon, and Kilimanjaro Safaris pretty close to a walk-on. The Pandora attractions were likewise not nearly as bad–both tend to peak relatively early in the day.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. After three straight weeks of 10/10 crowds, DHS feel to 8/10 in the first week of December and 9/10 last week.
DHS continues to be the busiest park at Walt Disney World, and anything above 7/10 here is arguably in unpleasant territory. I doubt many people in the park on only the “less busy” days in the last couple of weeks would describe their visit as such. Disney’s Hollywood Studios simply cannot absorb crowds. Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular cannot come back soon enough. Even then, it needs the other stage shows, nighttime spectaculars, and more additions to fix the problems. This is nothing new–see our pre-closure post: Disney’s Hollywood Studios: WDW’s Best Rides & Most Frustrating Park.)
During December, Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance is averaging a 121 minute wait time, Slinky Dog Dash is averaging a 81 minute wait, Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway is averaging 68 minutes, Millennium Falcon Smugglers Run is averaging 58 minutes, Toy Story Mania is averaging 55 minutes, Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster is averaging 55 minutes, and Twilight Zone Tower of Terror is doing 50 minutes.
These are the longest averages for headliners in any park at Walt Disney World, and the only reason the average wait time is brought down is because it includes things that don’t really have wait times.
We’ve been in the parks a lot both before and after Thanksgiving, and there’s a clear before/after divide in wait times. That’s undeniable, as it’s evident in the data above. This is especially true for the parks that aren’t Magic Kingdom.
Although anecdotal, our perception of “feels like” crowds doesn’t reflect the same. It definitely hasn’t been as bad the last two weeks, but it has still been packed–busier than I would’ve expected for the first two weeks of December, especially without Pop Warner. To the contrary, the last couple of weeks have felt like the busiest early December we’ve ever experienced at Walt Disney World.
Our best explanation for this discrepancy is that there are two different demographics at play. During Thanksgiving week, tourists with breaks from school descend upon Orlando. These guests are largely infrequent or first-time visitors, and are more likely to prioritize attractions–even when wait times are high.
In the weeks that follow, there are fewer travelers and more locals. Among the tourists, there are disproportionate numbers of DVC members and other more regular non-locals. All of these groups are less likely to prioritize rides (that they’ve done before, some many times) and more likely to do “other things.” This explains the gap–more like a chasm–between the feels like crowds in World Showcase, and the 6/10 crowd levels as determined by average wait times.
This really isn’t bold or highly speculative analysis. Orlando International Airport numbers show a steep drop-off in travelers between Thanksgiving week and the last two weeks, as should be expected.
The best recent example of this phenomenon is October 1, 2021. Anyone in Magic Kingdom that day could tell you that the park was absolutely packed, with long lines at everything from counter service restaurants to gift shops. Everything except rides, which indicated a 1/10 crowd level that day. That’s because the people visiting that day disproportionately were not there for attractions, so wait time data did not even begin to pick up actual attendance levels. This is an exaggerated example, but the same idea holds true other weeks of the year–including during the Christmas season, when there are other reasons than rides that people visit Walt Disney World.
Looking forward, you can expect crowd levels throughout this entire week on par with or above the last two week’s levels. This week, the only park fully booked for Park Pass reservations (for now) is Magic Kingdom, plus Hollywood Studios on a couple of days. Don’t be surprised there’s less availability by mid-week, as locals start realizing this is pretty much be their last chance to visit before the Christmas and New Year’s Eve blockouts take effect.
Crowds should further increase heading into the week…because they always do. That’s when tourists start arriving in full force for the week of Christmas, which should end up being one of the 5 busiest weeks of the year–unless Walt Disney World sets reservation caps lower after seeing the chaos of Thanksgiving. We’ll be in the parks both this week and next, and will have more reports on our experience with holiday crowds, daily ops for Christmas entertainment, and more.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Predictions on crowds for the two weeks before Christmas 2021? Thoughts on our predictions? Agree or disagree with our theory that fewer tourists–but more locals–drove feels like crowds up and wait times down the last couple weeks? If you’ve visited in prior months during the last year, how did crowds compare between then and now? What did you think of the wait times? Any parks or times of day noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We were at Disney World last and it was extremely crowded. I didn’t like working with Genie + and it cumbersome to use. Not to mention everyone was walking around looking down at their phone and not where they going. But I did love staying at the Polynesian Village Resort so overall it was a good trip. I just can’t imagine Genie /Genie + being the standard now for planning a day in one of the parks- I miss fast pass +
Just leaving our trip now,
was there from 11-16, staying on site and I’m conflicted. Went with wife, neither of us had been there for 10+ years and while I researched extensively (thanks Tom) there was still a crowd shock and learning curve. The crowds are oppressive, genie+ is somewhat cumbersome and the pressure of it all was a bit much. After about a day n change we settled in. Focused on rides for few hours in morning and then again at about 4. In between, either took it real easy (taking in architecture n whatnot) or straight up leaving to eat/chill at pool. With this and a limited use of genie+ (1 day of + and couple ILL), we did every noteworthy ride besides snow white coaster n frozen (which shutdown the night we were going otherwise would have got it). Hollywood studios has great rides but is a terrible park; not enough to do. Took multiple visits and patience to get everything without spending a whole day in line. MK I thought was a disaster. The day we were there was awful, took about 25 min to make your way across park and no railroad to help. Greatly redeemed by very merriest after party where we had perhaps the most magical night of our lives ( “stuck” on little mermaid in the under the sea room for 10 minutes was pure magic). Shows, fireworks n everyone in holiday mood. Going in tho, omg and there was a emergency so they cleared main st…. it was not for the claustrophobic. If you have hopper go early, like I’m talking 6 and get your pass inside. Epcot n AK were better, but still required a sound strategy. Your early access for AK but leaving pandora to do at night worked well (much cooler looking at night). Had restaurants booked since 60 day mark, thank goodness, saw several ppl have trouble finding place to eat. Typically waited about 10-25 minutes from res time. Busses never were an issue, but stayed in bay lake area so didn’t have use them alot. Do we regret the trip?? Def not and we had a lot of fun, but it was not what I would call relaxing. Going at night or morning was how we were able to absorb the attention to detail and ambiance that makes wdw unique. The crowds overwhelmed the ability to appreciate it during day. Also these were issues with just two 30 somethings, with a large family or young kids, prepare yourselves. S’viako!
Stayed on property Dec 8-15, seasoned Disney guest, typically stay during same time period each year for the past 23 years. I have never seen WDW this busy during this timeframe. We waited 50-90 minutes for all attractions, all parks are filled with masses of people. Everything we did was a challenge, there is a shortage of everything, cast members, hotel staff, buses etc. even of merchandise in shops. The food, variety, quality and presentation is far below the usual for WDW. I kept reminding myself we are in a pandemic and Disney is doing the best they can. None of the cute Christmas cupcakes or fancy desserts unless you stood in a very long line at a Holiday kiosk This is the most expensive Disney vacation we’ve ever taken and definitely the least value for the money. If you have never been to Disney, you may have a great vacation, if you are a regular visitor, you may be disappointed. We have decided to skip next year, giving Disney time to get back up to speed. If you cannot afford Genie+, LL, getting up at 06:30 to book attractions, you will have a long, long wait. There are extensive waits to purchase food/ drink and to get in the restrooms. Speaking of the restrooms, many were dirty, out of soap/ paper towels, clogged toilets. Between the workforce shortage and crowds, Disney is not at it’s best. I knew all of this before going, however, I kept telling myself Disney would not allow more people on property than they could serve, parks or resorts. Either Disney does not understand or care how far the bar has dropped. It is not the cast members fault, there are too few workers to handle the demand. If you go I hope you have a great visit, however, looking back we should have skipped Disney this year. It truly hurts to say we should have skipped Disney but I cannot, in all honesty say different. For many the cost of a Disney vacation takes a lot of saving and cutting back on other little luxuries, right now there is little value or magic for the money spent.
We are a family of 11 (6adults and 5 boys under the age of 7) here at WDW from Dec. 12-19. Staying off property. Researched everything about Genie Plus and individual LL. Before we came. Monday was HS. Bought Genie at 6. Bought SDD at 7 and then started using Genie at 9. 9 bought LL for Runaway Train. Stayed 9-9. Rise broke down twice. We got on Rise at 6:30PM with only 60 minute wait. Following Tom’ direction., we got todo everything in this park by 9 except for Arrowsmith which had broken down numerous times. I was so proud of myself after all my research. Tuesday was MK. Bought Genie at 6 and 7 got Jungle Cruise. At 8 bought 7 Dwarks train ride. Stayed 8-8. Did everything except for few kiddie rides. So far trip is great! There are crowds and many people waiting in line. I stacked all our rides and we walked on to all of them and filled in with other rides when we could. Be glad to help anyone.
We just got back from Disney yesterday. There is NO slowdown in the number of people in the parks!!! An hour wait at any park was a “short” wait. One of the bus drivers told us on Monday (the 13th) that over 80,000 people rode the buses by 9:00 that night. It was a zoo and several rides were not operating (Mickey’s Philharmonic, Na’avi River Ride). It was Avery frustrating experience. We thought that if we went when the kids were in school it would be less crowded. I guess there were a lot of “COVID revenge travelers!!!
My daughter and I were at WDW from 11/27-12/11/21 and have done similar dates in the past. I will say this was definitely different and much more crowded, especially on the 27th and 28th (weekend after thanksgiving), but seemed better during the rest of our trip. The crowds seemed to be a bit higher on the 10 and 11th as we were winding down our stay, but things were tolerable. Patience was definitely needed. We found the worst of the waits were at the Skyliner stations at Pop/Art and the especially the transfer station at Caribbean Beach for everyone taking advantage of the Early entry each day. We arrived in line by between 6:30 and 7am each day and just made it to our 8 am Breakfasts at AK one day and DHS one day, It was stressful thinking we would miss what I was told was a very strict 15 minute window for our dining reservations, but we made it and went on to enjoy our days! We had a great time and the weather was absolutely perfect!
Was there for a week from Nov.29 -Dec.6……Exhausted is only word i can say…..Epcot my favorite was a crowded nightmare….Made Soarin once….yikes…..Walls….lines…crowds….Seems Sat nite is locals drinking nite so never ever ever never will go during any food festivals or a sat. nite…Hollywood Studios zero chance to find food except a pretzel with cheese……This year seemed more crowded then ever at the 2 week timeframe of Dec between Thansgiving an Christmas…Sorry to be a pooper but as for me Disney has lost its Magic….too much money….LL….Genie…Not for me…too olde …..
We are BRAVE SOULS
We check in to the Poly Dec 28th for 6 nights
Can’t wait for the chaos !!!!
3rd trip this year and we were there the same week last year
LOVE flying down and experiencing Disney during Christmas and New Years
We are set to go Jan 20th thru Jan 29, 2022. We were able to reserve great dinning reservations each day of our trip. After reading the posts on how crazy busy it is I’m having second thoughts and wondering if we should reschedule. Any thoughts on possible crowds during the time we’re going?
We were there last week and it was rough. All of our in park dining reservations were wildly behind. We waited over an hour for a 50s Prime Time Lunch and CRT. CRT running behind was especially bad, as we ended up getting stuck under the castle for half of the fireworks show. We’re adults so we handled it fine–but there were loads of kids waiting two. Half of them were freaking out about missing the fireworks, and the other half were falling asleep.
When we went to EPCOT we were blown away by the exhausting maze of construction walls, lines 7-8 people deep for pretty much every non-ride (a line for Club Cool?? A line at every coffee stand??). One thing I can say is that the Cast Members working the FotH booths were hustling. The lines looked long but we didn’t wait for anything longer than 3 minutes.
Honestly we’re normally rope-dropping Disney commandos but this trip was exhausting.
Tom and sarah thanks for your research and advice!
We were in Orlando from December 8th to 12thh and I have to say got to do everything on our want list with minimal waits and from reading comments can see we were in minority.
We had done mostly universal for a weeks stay in July, and had bought annual passes. We stopped at universal on way from auto train to dolphin and caught hagrid, and Dudley water flume and hagrid and saw beautiful nighttime show at hogwarts.
Next morning was terrified of the genie push. Following your advice had my 16 year old grand on the slinky hunt, her mother on the push for rise with my 73 year old fingers as backup. After a couple refreshes she said “I got 10:15 slinky “ and I nearly cried in relief. We were all trying for rise which you had warned was glitchy, when she suddenly said. Wait we have a 2:35 rise. I had apparently scored it and didn’t realize.
The rest of the day seemed so relaxing after the 7 o clock pressure TimE we. got to Hs after eating , a little before 9 . Did runaway and tower in standby lines that were half the posted times , 20 and 25 respectively.. d
I have been here since 12/9 and it has felt extremely crowded. Even walking through the parks has been difficult with all the crowding. Today 12/14 DHS and MK sold out for park reservations. We have had the best luck using the early entry. I don’t know the lay of the land all that well so I’m sure that makes a huge difference when trying to navigate the crowds and wait times. I have purchased a couple genie+ days and multiple LL rides. The LL purchases have been great although it can get extremely expensive! Utilizing the genie plus was a bit difficult and I would say not worth it so far but mostly because I don’t know the parks very well so we would end up running back-and-forth from one end of the park to the other, it was definitely exhausting. And even though I set a timer to remind myself to make another ride selection nothing was available in the location I was in or no availability for any of the rides we actually wanted to do. Again, i’m sure things would have gone a lot smoother if I had a better sense of direction. I do plan on trying to utilize genie+ again for our last day in Hollywood studios but I plan on mapping out our day ahead of time instead of bouncing around like ping-pong balls! Fingers crossed for a smooth flowing day!
I was also there last week. I agree… it is like playing chess to get to do most of the things you dreamed of doing. Thanks goodness my daughter controlled the lightning lane time picks and boarding pass…I’d have still been standing there! She also picked the dinner reservations 2 months in advance. It was a wonderful trip because of her abilities to understand everything Disney!
We regularly went to Animal Kingdom on Christmas Day, pre-pandemic. The first week of December the crowds were worse than I have ever seen them, and Genie+ forced us to waste time and energy running around the park for the few rides that are included (since Everest and Flight of Passage are extra individual LL, and Kali is down for refurb). I was grateful to have bought it due to the long lines at the Safari and Navi River Journey, but it breaks down to $5 per person per ride for the 3 AK rides that are not individual LL purchases. It’s sad how much value has evaporated from a WDW trip in just two years, and the pandemic can’t be blamed for all the crass money grabs. Well, onto Universal then.
How were you able to reserve Space 220?
How did you get a reservation at Space 220?
@Margaret – I disagree about Universal being universally better with Express Pass. LL seems to bypass more of the line at Disney. We used Express and still waited over 30 mins in some lines surrounded by people in a queue without masks. Depending on your comfort level, Disney might just come out ahead due to the continued masking rules. Express pass is easier to use, but the immediate in line benefit is less. Genie+ is more complicated, but still new and kinks need to be addressed. And Universal doesn’t escape those other complications – they have early access (but only one park open with two rides running), Virtual Lines (but only sometimes and it is chaos at the ride entrance), and Express Pass…
We were there 11/28-12/5. Crowds were a nightmare in all the parks. What’s the reason for reservations? Felt like they tried to cram as many people in as they could. Left most days early, as so many people without masks were concerning. It’s just not time to go to Disney. Expensive, wait times, rude people. As a pass holder, won’t be renewing.
We were there Fromm dec 8 to dec 13 and it felt very busy, but also like there wasn’t enough to do. The only park where we felt we couldn’t accomplish everything was Epcot. The lines for the booths, the schedule of the special country-specific entertainment, and the overall crowding were constant frustrations (I think the construction walls in future world make the world showcase area so much more crowded).
What surprised me most using genie+ Was how many guests didn’t understand at all how to find their lightning lane reservation times. The way the “tip board” interface is set up is very confusing- it shows you’ve booked a lightning lane, but doesn’t show what time you booked. Several people I overheard missed their reservations bc they looked At the tip board and it made it look like their reserved time was changing, bc the tip board shows the available times for booking, not your reserved time! I spoke to some very frustrated customers, and cast members having to stand there at the lighting lane entrance explaining to folks even what the my Disney app is- it’s becoming so cumbersome to go to Disney. Zero chance my parents would understand this system. The legacy FPP was difficult enough for them.
Compared to universal and the express pass- what a difference. Express is so much better. We experienced that- plus the full spectrum of holiday entertainment offerings at Universal from 12/6-12/8. If I were a TA, I’d recommend clients to go to universal right now over Disney. Genie+, ILL, virtual queue, early magic minutes, etc… it’s just too much.
We are here now and making the best of crowds by paying for allll the extras. We rope dropped Soarin today (early entry), bought Frozen, waited for Spaceship Earth, LL for test track, bought Remi, LL Figment, LL Soarin, waited Land. Oh and lunch at Space! Overall a wonderful day despite crowds 🙂