How Crowded Will Disney World Be After Reopening?
“How bad will crowds be when Walt Disney World’s parks reopen?” and “which months will be busiest when WDW reopens?” are two common reader questions right now. Many readers are understandably anxious about crowds when rebooking vacations, and we’ll attempt to answer here based on history and our expectations.
This is an ongoing series, coming in response to feedback and concerns raised in response to our When Will Walt Disney World Reopen? post. We’ve also tackled the question of Will Huge Discounts be Offered When WDW Reopens? and soon will address operational modifications. (We’ll also revisit the first question.)
A lot of this is speculative, dependent upon how the next couple of months play out and what the national mood is going forward. While we’re comfortable discussing generalized trends and possibilities, it would be incredibly premature to offer numerical crowd levels or an update to our 2020 Crowd Calendars for Walt Disney World. We’ll try to have one of those as soon as possible–if you want to be notified when that’s ready, sign up here for our FREE Disney newsletter here.
When it comes to Walt Disney World crowd predictions for the remainder of 2020 after the parks reopen (whenever that might happen), there are generally two schools of thought. The first is that most guests who have had their trips cancelled will rebook later in the year for the months that remain, meaning several months worth of crowds will be crammed into what’s left of the year. This would mean a significant spike in attendance.
The second is that crowds will be significantly lower across the board due to surging unemployment, plummeting consumer confidence, economic anxiety, travel trepidation, and more. If you’ve read any of our past posts related to the topic, you already know we fall firmly in the second camp.
We’ll cover both theories here, discussing what each means in terms of how busy Walt Disney World will be. However, there are a ton of variables that will be at play and we don’t have a crystal ball–if we did, we’d probably use it for something cooler, like finding out who wins the 2021 World POG Federation Championship…
Before we delve into this discussion, let’s set the economic backdrop. Although people might visit for the “Disney Bubble” they don’t book vacations while in one. Real world circumstances have a significant impact on travel numbers–look no further than the attendance lulls following 9/11 and the Great Recession for conclusive proof of that.
The latest weekly jobs report showed 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment, for a two-week total of roughly 10 million jobless claims. This number is a record by a colossal margin, and is likely still an underestimate given that many states and individuals reported troubles with processing and filing unemployment claims, respectively.
Moreover, some companies have done everything they can to keep people employed, but simply will not be able to do so the longer this goes on. Walt Disney World and other Central Florida theme park operators are good examples of this. The Walt Disney Company has announced it’ll furlough employees on April 19, and it’s likely Universal and other businesses will follow suit–adding to those numbers.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis district has estimated that the United States could see as many as 47 million people lose their jobs when all is said and done. That would put the nation’s unemployment rate at 32%, a figure higher than what was seen during the Great Depression. Other estimates project lower and larger numbers, but the one constant is that they’re all unprecedented highs.
While those numbers are eye-popping, they only tell the beginning of the entire story. Several questions remain unanswered. How rapidly will recovery occur? Have we simply hit “pause” on all economic activity? To what degree will there be lasting damage? Will the American consumer bounce right back? How quickly will those jobs return?
Unfortunately, I’m not an economist or financial expert who simply operates a Walt Disney World blog as a side hustle. Nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. (Although even that sounds delightful right about now!) However, I do watch a lot of CNBC and read a ton of financial news, and one thing is clear to me: no one really knows.
Well-credentialed experts each appear confident in their own personal economic projections, but they contradict one another. Suffice to say, there’s no clear consensus. Unlike the weather forecast (which itself isn’t a hallmark of reliability), these experts are working with even less complete information. So much of the story remains to be written.
Economists have offered up no shortage of predictions for the “shape” of the economic recovery. Initially, a rapid V-shape rebound was favored. Now, more believe it could be an L, W, or U-shape recovery. Some think we’re looking at a “Nike Swoosh” shape (here’s a decent overview of the possibilities). We haven’t yet to hear of any “Hidden Mickey” shape bounce-backs, but there’s still time.
We’ve already spent a lot of time fixating on the current and potential future state of the economy, but the reason for that is simple: it’s the best proxy we have right now for future crowd levels at Walt Disney World. This is all totally unprecedented, so traditional crowd prediction methodology are pretty much out the window.
Consumer confidence is a great barometer for generalized attendance trends, and it already showed a significant drop last month (and that only surveyed sentiment through the 18th–before the parks even closed). It’s safe to assume the consumer confidence numbers for April and May will see an even sharper drop, which is significant because this is the timeframe that average Americans would typically be booking travel for September through December.
On social media, we’ve seen a lot of people worried that Walt Disney World crowds will be colossal in October. (That specific month has come up again and again.) This is based upon comments people have seen posted in Facebook groups, blog comments, and other Disney-centric social media. This fear has been exacerbated by long waits on the phone to book the Free Dining Summer Recovery Offer.
In its own way, this illustrates the problem with online echo chambers. If you’re surrounded by other diehard Disney fans on social media, of course you’re hearing from other people who are rebooking trips and eager to get back to the parks. You thus might assume that “everyone” is booking for the fall and it’s going to be packed.
We’d strongly caution against buying into this–it’s an extreme case of selection bias. High call volume is easy to explain away: there’s also a huge surge in cancellations and we don’t know what staffing numbers are like right now. This is all supported by the reality that only a minority of guests are even eligible for the promo.
Even assuming a number of best case scenarios about the speed and strength of our nation’s recovery from this–plus a lack of health concerns–it’s really difficult to see a massive spike by early fall. For one, September and October are “naturally” Florida’s off-season, a time when school is back in session, meaning less travel.
October has not been off-season the last several years, but that’s largely been due to a huge spike in conventions and other events. The year’s convention schedule has already been decimated, with many events already cancelled for fall. (We wouldn’t be surprised to see no youth events on the calendar for ESPN Wide World of Sports for the remainder of 2020.)
On average, Walt Disney World vacations are booked 5-6 months in advance. (Most people reading this almost certainly begin planning earlier. You’re reading a Disney blog–you’re not the average guest.) In order for those fall months to fill up, people would need to be booking trips right now.
With so much uncertainty in the air, it’s safe to say that this is not occurring on a widespread level. As this closure continues, the same will almost certainly hold true for November and December. At present, it’s difficult to envision the general public eagerly booking trips to a destination with a reputation for crowds and lines. There are simply too many unknowns and anxiety is high.
In our recent post about Walt Disney World Accepting Reservations for June 1, 2020 and Later, we posited that Disney had opened reservations for summer (and offered Free Dining Recovery Deal) to get more bookings and boost the occupancy numbers. Otherwise, it would not even be practicable to open the resorts this summer.
It’s absolutely true that Walt Disney World can work its “magic” to drive reservations. A general public Free Dining offer or even more aggressive discounts could help spike hotel occupancy to acceptable levels. Good deals can overcome a lot, including fears about congestion.
What’s largely out of Disney’s control is occupancy at off-site hotels. Walt Disney World is somewhat dependent upon Florida tourism, as a whole. While fans bemoan the construction of new on-site hotels and how they’ve exacerbated crowds, the reality is that most guests on any given day are still coming from off-site.
Even if Disney can somehow against all odds manage 90% on-site occupancy for the fall and winter, the actual crowd levels in the parks will be largely dependent upon what booking levels look like off-site. It’s safe to say that third party hotels will likewise offer deals to get back on their feet, but those don’t have the same impact of enticing people to visit Walt Disney World. Nevertheless, let’s say those hotels see a recovery and WDW offers a strong general public 4-day ticket deal to recover some off-site guests.
All of that is making a number of best case assumptions about consumer confidence, the economic recovery, and Walt Disney World’s ability to quickly and effectively deploy discounts to buoy resort occupancy.
If the average American has economic anxiety, unemployment remains above 10%, and/or consumer confidence does not rebound, fewer people will be booking trips. To us, the best case scenario looks like a 15% drop in domestic attendance–and that doesn’t even take into account international guests who may not even be able to travel to the United States.
Again, this is all the general public we’re discussing. Walt Disney World fans will no doubt disproportionately make sacrifices, jump on discounts, and do everything they can to return to their happy place. However, Disney fans are a (vocal) minority of all guests on any given day.
All of the above discussion reflects the second school of thought regarding Walt Disney World crowds after the parks reopen–the beliefs to which we subscribe. The other is that most guests who have had their Walt Disney World vacations cancelled will rebook later in the year for the months that remain.
The theory here is that Americans won’t sacrifice their 2020 vacations. If the parks are closed for ~2 months and reopen on June 1, those couple months worth of crowds will be redistributed for the remainder of the year. This is the best (or worst, depending upon your perspective) case scenario.
If Disney can simply spread the crowds that would’ve materialized during the closure over the rest of the year that could mean a 10-25% daily increase in crowds, depending upon how long the closure lasts. This is theoretically possible if you ignore real world reality, we guess. It’s also theoretically possible that Walt Disney World will begin accepting Monopoly money and we’ll each be named Princess or Prince of Magic Kingdom for the day.
However, we will concede that we don’t know how this will end up playing out. This is totally unprecedented in a number of ways, and it seems like every single day has included a new and usually unpleasant surprise. It’s virtually impossible to predict how the nation will look and feel several weeks from now, let alone several months.
We feel our thinking represents a sober view of how the general public’s current attitude towards booking vacations and the variables that will impact that in the coming months. While it’s likely Central Florida locals eager to get out of the house will pack the parks (to the degree that’s even possible) in the first few weeks after reopening, we’d expect that to be a temporary surge. After that, our preliminary expectation (read: total shot in the dark guess) is that you can take normal crowd calendars and drop those numbers by about 50%. Take October’s numbers and drop them even further than that. This doesn’t even take into account crowd control measures and operational modifications Walt Disney World might make, but that’s another topic for another day…
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise or fall once the parks reopen? Are you anticipating colossal crowds this fall and holiday season, or the lowest levels since the Great Recession or 9/11? Will you immediately book a trip, or wait until the economy recovers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I fall into the cancelled in March and rebooking category. We’ve rebooked for the end of September and am crossing my fingers it’ll be open then. As of 4 days ago when I talked to reservations last, she easily said September was the most popular right now for rebookings.
I’d be willing to bet that a majority of those claiming unemployment during all this are not those that can afford to go to Disney regularly, or reschedule such big plans that easily. Unfortunately, Disney is expensive now. And cost prohibitive for a LOT of people. Let alone if they’re already booking out through the rest of the year. It’s gonna be packed if they keep booking out, of those staying in hotels. Let alone the fact that nobody is taking this thing seriously, so there will likely be a surge of people who’d be there now, if it was open, because they treat this thing like the flu.
I am a potential international visitor from Canada, and a frequent WDW visitor in the recent past. We do not perceive your current federal government as honest and credible, and will not trust any infection numbers that come out from Washington. We also fear civil unrest in your country around election time, regardless of who appears to have won, and before that because of widespread hunger and stress-exacerbated mental issues, mixed with an insane amount of gun ownership. That brings us to February, at the very earliest. It maybe brings us to years from now. Take away international visitors, and you have a WDW that will need to start closing hotels and attractions to stay in business. I hope that does not happen.
Whoa Barbara…..Take it easy ‘kitten’!
My ‘educated guess’ is that for a ‘long time’ you have been going on ‘trips’ to places like the Disney Parks. Has the statistical fact that ‘anywhere’ from 30,000 to 60,000 people per year in the United States of America ‘alone’ fatally succumb to respiratory diseases like the ‘regular flu’ ever ‘deterred’ you from vacationing excursions of this kind until now? I think not Barbara. You need to pull out of this ‘self-imposed’ panic your in…..thinking and acting like ‘a Nervous Nellie’ isn’t going to change anything for the ‘better’ or for the ‘worse’. Things are what they are…..it is what it is.
Times for the Disney Parks have changed, and all of us must accept and adapt to this reality. So be it.
Whether there continues to be ‘spectacular displays’ like ‘fire works’, I can’t say.
Personally and practically speaking, I think the required wearing of ‘face masks’ by all ‘castmembers & guests’ with ‘their favorite’ Disney characters printed on them is inevitable…..
As ‘Poppins’ would say, “Just a spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down!”
Barbara ‘chill out’…..now would be an ‘ideal’ time for you to re-enjoy musical Disney film classics like MARY POPPINS or BEDKNOBS AND BROOMSTICKS or BABES IN TOYLAND.
Barbara…..be good…..and God bless you always!
Best,
William
William, this is far more deadly, far more contagious than the flu. The whole world is not shutting down because people are Nellies of any kind. It’s because they value human life. You can laugh at people wanting to stay alive all you want, but in the end it’s you who sounds crazy – and dangerous.
Though I consider myself a ‘seasoned’ Disney guest, we never plan our trip in advance. We go at least 3 times a year (from NY), and decide with a just a few days notice. We have yet to miss out on a FastPass opportunity, there are always rooms to be found (both at a Disney property and/or surrounding resorts), and have no problem finding flights. Point is – planning too much in advance can lead to disappointment and – in the case of COVID – a financial and logistical nightmare. As for us, we’ll be on the first plane out to Orlando as soon as this mess is over, and looking forward to making many more Disney memories (with less than 48-hours notice).
I pretty much agree with your assessment with the exception being that I believe the parks will become seasonal until there is a vaccine or this virus completely dies out.
While I’m not sure how comfortable I’m going to be with traveling anywhere until there is a vaccine, I currently have a trip booked for late October. I expect we’ll end up cancelling the October trip if there’s a fall rebound with the virus.
I also offered to take my sister and her family to WDW this summer (my March trip was cancelled so I’m eligible for the guest recovery free dining offer). They live in Madrid and need something to look forward to at this point. However my sister is highly doubtful that they’ll in be able to travel stateside at all before there is a vaccine.
Stay calm folks, once this settles in, people will return to work and the unemployment levels will drop. If COVID stays around, it’ll turn into what the regular flu is and which everyone has come to accept and hopefully handles like they are currently doing for regular influenza. You all aren’t over reacting to the flu, right? Looking forward to a well deserved November Disney World vacation.
I am a DVC member with a canceled April trip. We have rescheduled for the end of August and many resorts are already full. Can’t get a deluxe studio at Poly and nothing at all for the beach club. So from what I can see, folks are using their timeshare. We enjoy the resorts and may not “do Disney” like we typically do, in the parks a lot, but time will tell. We most likely will suit up like now with hand sanitizer and masks but for now it’s just fun planning something fun in the midst of this storm and we have no clue what things will be like in four months but you can’t stop living and you still have to plan.
Our trip is booked for early June. In fact, yesterday hit the 60 day out mark, so my sister-in-law got online as soon as our window opened to get Fastpasses (we’re still planning as if the parks will be open and will adjust later, obviously, if need be). She was surprised at the inability to get some Fastpasses right off the bat- some not available at all, some only available at night. This was across all 4 parks- and she was looking right when the 60-day window opened! So, I’m not sure if that is an indication that crowds will be high the first half of June (previously crowd calendars suggested levels would not be high), or if many (many, many) Fastpasses were being held back for some reason. We’ve never had such difficulty getting Fastpasses before- especially since we were scheduling them right when they were first available.
We have a trip scheduled the beginning of June as well and can’t believe how bad the fast pass availability is. Still hoping
Really interesting article, so thanks Tom. At this stage it’s all a lot of guesswork but it’s good to see the different points of view.
My partner and I are due to be flying over from the UK in September for two weeks. At this stage I don’t know what to expect and I’m trying not to get too hopeful that everything will be relatively normal. Phased openings look likely so it all depends on when things start to open. I guess time will tell…
My opinion is that many whose vacations were affected this year will rebook for the same time next year rather than later this year, especially those with children. The kids are already out of school now. It’s doubtful they’ll be pulled out of school in the fall just to go to WDW. Also, those who have lost their jobs are using their vacation money for living expenses. They might not be able to afford a WDW vacation for years.
If the Disney resort hotels open back up in June I would consider a road trip to Orlando for sometime late summer even if just to enjoy being at the resort and relaxing on the balcony of my room. Not sure I’d venture into any park in late summer on a normal day in Disney mainly bc of the Florida heat but like most people, I’d be a little concerned about potential crowds and standing in long lines around people from all over. It’s just too soon to be around large groups of people. Don’t think I’ll venture in to any parks till at least late fall at the earliest.
I’m not vacationing in Disney this year unless we go visit our son who is a cast member. But I saw that you wrote April 19 Disney was furloughing all its employees I haven’t seen or herd this anywhere else, my son hasn’t herd it at all from Disney or his union were did you get this information.
https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-to-furlough-workers-starting-april-19-announcement-benefits-2020-4
We r book into Fort Wilderness the end of June does look ok. Thank you
We were booked for the end of May and rescheduled for the end of July now. We are really hoping to go, but we’ll see how things play out. I work in healthcare so planning our rescheduled trip keeps my mind on happy positive thoughts.
I am hoping for smaller crowds, but everything is so uncertain right now! Praying for this virus to slow down. Everyone stay safe out there!
We gave a family trip scheduled at the end of June. Hope the parks are back open by the middle of that month at least
Hi David:
I am a Vietnam War veteran: I served in the United States Air Force as a military cinematographer. At the time I was able to visit ‘the World’ just prior to its ‘official’
opening in the early 1970’s. (Back then most people wouldn’t even have an ‘inkling’ as to where Orlando, FL was ‘on the map’ let alone Kissimmee, FL.)
So since I suspect ‘many’ of us might have ‘ample’ amounts of ‘time on our hands’, let’s take the time to ‘revisit’ some of our favorite Disney film classics.
To you David let me recommend Walt Disney’s ‘eternally’ heart-warming live-action films OLD YELLER and SO DEAR TO
MY HEART!!!
You can’t go wrong with those two.
Hang in there ‘my man’.
Sir…..ALL THE BEST.
Sincerely,
William
My family had tickets for Disney world this month, April. although we would like to reschedule for the fall, realistically I do not believe that the economy is going to bounce back in the tourism industry for at least another solid year. That includes Disney world. Because of the fact that the unemployment numbers are so incredibly high with so many millions and millions of people having lost their jobs, it just does not support crowds all of a sudden flocking to Disney world in the fall of this year! It is much too soon. I’m thinking more like a full year before Walt Disney world and including Disneyland becomes back to some sort of normal. And yes, of course I hope I’m completely wrong, and that the economy bounces back sooner, and tourism and hospitality industries will get back to normal much sooner. CAB
Hello CAB…..I hope your wrong too!
When the parks do reopen the first attraction I plan on ‘standing in line’ for is
the Millennium Falcon attraction from the STAR WARS SAGA! And of course, I have all eleven installments of ‘the Saga’ on Blue-Ray Disc to help me ‘wall-away’ the hours!
Here are listed all eleven STAR WARS theatrical films in order of their original releases:
EPISODE IV[4]: A NEW HOPE
EPISODE V[5]: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK
EPISODE VI[6]: RETURN OF THE JEDI
EPISODE I[1]: THE PHANTOM MENACE
EPISODE II[2]: ATTACK OF THE CLONES
EPISODE III[3]: REVENGE OF THE SITH
EPISODE VII[7]: THE FORCE AWAKENS
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
EPISODE VII[8]: THE LAST JEDI
SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
EPISODE IX[9]: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
Enjoy all you ‘storm troopers’ working ‘incognito’ for ‘Cruella DeVille’. And may ‘the Force always be with you good guys’!
All the best,
William
Disney is not reopening for a very very very long time.
And you know this to be a fact how?
There is nothing wrong with dreaming, planning and wanting to get back to the magic. That doesn’t mean we are not doing our part now, might have first responders in our families or morn for every life lost. It doesn’t mean we will have money in retirement when this is done to go, but reading about Disney from Tom and Sarah and “trying” to plan might keep some keep going in this period of isolation and terrible news. I know I am a high risk senior and live alone and this contact really helps. My April trip was cancelled which I totally agree with, although saddened. I wish everyone well.
Be well Jan! We’ll get back to the magic one of these days.
We’re all in this together! 🙂
My family is booked for the last week in May, it is our first visit to Disney. We are all very upset in the uncertainty of our vacation. I pray things are well on there way back to normal by the end of May.