Disneyland Summer 2021 Crowd Predictions
Disneyland and Disney California Adventure theme park reservations are now available with no virtual queue or website woes. Now that the dust has settled, we thought it’d be worth offering some analysis and Summer 2021 crowd predictions for Disneyland and DCA.
We’ll preface this with the standard disclaimer that this is highly speculative, dependent upon how the next few months play out. There are still a ton of unsettled variables that will influence attendance between the April 30 opening date and around Labor Day 2021, and a lot of unknowns. All of which we hope to touch upon here so you can assess the factors yourself and draw your own semi-informed conclusions about crowds at Disneyland.
While we’re comfortable discussing generalized trends and possibilities, it would be incredibly premature to offer numerical crowd levels or an update to our 2021 Crowd Calendars for Disneyland. We’ll try to have one of those as soon as possible—but it’s entirely possible that Disneyland & DCA crowd calendars will be worthless for the rest of the year.
Before reservations went live, we commented that there were some eerie parallels between Disneyland’s reopening and the first summer season of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Although that now might feel like an eternity ago, it was only two years ago.
For those needing a quick refresher, Disney also opted for use a reservation system for that, and they were difficult to score, with reports that over a million fans were all vying for reservations when they dropped. The process had its own hiccups, but was relatively smooth as compared to the reopening reservations. The operative difference was that Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge entry reservations were quickly fully booked.
The expectation was that those reservations would be necessary to prevent over-crowding and multi-hour lines just to enter the park. Disneyland undertook Project Stardust to minimize points of congestion, instituted more Annual Passholder and Cast Member blockout dates, increased prices to a greater degree than normal, expanded bag check, and had maximum staffing levels.
All of that proved to be unnecessary.
It was the least-crowded summer we’ve ever experienced at Disneyland, rivaling even winter off-seasons. With the benefit of hindsight, the problem was obvious–Disney, the media, and fans (and we are just as guilty of this as anyone) hyped up the “crowdpocalypse” to such an extreme degree that locals and tourists alike avoided Disneyland all summer.
Offering further proof that history rhymes, the situation could easily be likened to Los Angeles during the 1984 Olympics or the 405 “carmageddon,” both of which were less crowded than normal due to fears of overcrowding.
Enter Disneyland’s reopening reservations, which are currently available through June 28, 2021.
Above is current availability for Park Hopper ticket reservations in May 2021, below is June 2021. There is also still availability at DCA for the April 30, 2021 reopening day. (You can check the calendar of currently available dates without having tickets.)
I’ve been adamant in my belief it was wise for Disneyland to cancel (or at least restrict) Annual Passes in the short-term due to capacity limitations, but that they’re absolutely necessary in the long-term and will likely be back sooner rather than later.
Even I thought there was much more pent-up demand than this. The fact that Disneyland wasn’t able to quickly sell out at least a couple of weeks at 25% (or lower) capacity after the parks have been closed for over a year is surprising, and is bad news for Disney, but good news for fans.
We’re getting ahead of ourselves–let’s turn to some crowd predictions…
The simplest and best proxy for Summer 2021 crowd levels at Disneyland will be the public-facing availability calendars. These will be most accurate the closer to your visit, so if you’re a local with flexibility, taking a last-minute wait and see approach is savvy.
Beyond that, what we’re already seeing is that weekends in May and early June 2021 were first to book up, which makes sense given visitors demographics. It’s worth noting that this is also how things played out at Walt Disney World last summer. Normally, we hesitate to draw parallels between the Florida and California parks since the guest dynamics are so different. However, as we pointed out repeatedly last summer, Walt Disney World operated very similarly to Disneyland last summer since it was disproportionately locals visiting.
Last summer at Walt Disney World probably also holds more insight into what might happen at Disneyland. In Florida, the least busy days in the parks were all in the weeks immediately after reopening. Part of this was likely because Walt Disney World had a lower attendance cap at first, gradually increasing it as the parks began operating smoothly.
We wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to learn that Disneyland is doing the same, perhaps limiting the first couple of weeks below the 25% threshold set by the state. (That’s almost certainly the case given Park Hopping from day one.)
It quickly became clear that attendance was going to be lower than forecast. Within a week of Walt Disney World’s opening, hotel discounts were released for southern states and a Florida resident ticket deal was rolled out. Neither made a significant impact on numbers.
This is where things could differ for Disneyland. The SoCal resident ticket deals are normally huge drivers of attendance, helping buoy crowds during the winter off-season and the weeks leading up to their expiration seeing spikes on the crowd calendars. At this point, it seems like a matter of when–not if–Disneyland rolls out the SoCal resident deals for the summer. Those who get in before that will pay more, but likely enjoy significantly smaller crowds.
At Walt Disney World, pent-up demand was not an issue in any way whatsoever after maybe the first couple days each park was open. Following that, July and August were veritable ghost towns, to the point that Walt Disney World dramatically cut back fall park hours.
If anything, the “reverse” (or something along those lines) occurred in Florida. Crowds were slow low in the first couple of months that they induced more demand, resulting in higher crowd levels just as Walt Disney World started cutting hours. This is another scenario we could envision happening in California.
In fact, it would seem that to some degree, the stage has been set for exactly that. Following Disneyland’s reopening reservation rollout, there were widespread reports on the local news of long waits. We watched coverage on CBS Los Angeles, which made it sound like there was more demand than supply, with diehard fans waiting 12 hours just for a chance to score the elusive tickets. There was no follow-up coverage about wide open availability in the days that followed.
While Disneyland is a Southern California institution, most locals are more casual than they are diehard, and waiting 12 hours is a nonstarter. Moreover, after seeing reports like that on the news–or simply trying themselves for an hour or so and failing–many likely gave up on scoring tickets and reservations entirely. The abandonment rate was undoubtedly high. Beyond that, most normal people aren’t going to try for tickets after hearing those news reports, fearing the crowds and/or headaches it’ll entail.
Fast-forward a month from now, and there will likely be reports on those same stations about “surprisingly” low crowds at Disneyland and Disney California Adventure. The same people who were previously discouraged from trying for tickets and reservations will then be encouraged to try for them.
Accordingly, we wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see a pronounced increase in attendance about a month into the reopening, potentially coinciding with the opening of Avengers Campus at Disney California Adventure.
With that in mind, the lack of Annual Passes is still a significant limiting factor for locals. Californians who are ex-APs are used to visiting Disneyland a certain way, and paying a certain price. Many of them paid less for an entire year of access than they would for a few days of Park Hopper tickets.
Which is to say that many locals will be “one and done” visitors until the new AP or membership program rolls out. Paying over $100 for single-day access is going to be a tough sell for many locals, especially with so much missing. In the near-term, it’s an easier sell for tourists, who are used to paying more for admission.
However, out of state tourists are not allowed to visit initially; barring unforeseen circumstances, this will occur on June 15, 2021. There is every reason to believe the resident restriction will fall away on that day, because the only reason it exists right now is the California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, which for some reason added a residency requirement layer to the guidance for theme parks and sporting events (which differ because they were released later than guidance for other industries). That plan is being retired on June 15, 2021.
There are no independent travel restrictions beyond the reopening blueprint–California already relaxed its travel advisory to out of state visitors at the beginning of this month. In fact, I could book an April or May stay at the Grand Californian, eat every meal indoors at Downtown Disney, shop til I dropped, and not in any way violate California’s rules. I just couldn’t enter the parks or go see the Dodgers or Angels play.
UPDATE: Literally minutes after publishing this, I received a tip that California quietly removed the in-state restriction for theme parks. This is still a developing story, but we’ll hopefully have official confirmation from Disneyland within the next week as to their interpretation of the change.
Here are full details: Vaccinated Out-of-State Visitors May Be Allowed to Visit Disneyland and Disney California Adventure!
Many or most people don’t realize all of this, and will wait until there’s official confirmation that out of state visitors are allowed before booking a trip. There’s a lag between when tourists book vacations and actually travel, meaning the deluge of guests from Utah, Nevada, and other nearby states probably won’t hit until late summer–perhaps not until Halloween Time starts in early September.
Bringing this full circle, that’s exactly what happened following the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Even though Disneyland quickly brought back the OG Soarin’ Over California and Main Street Electrical Parade while also lifting Cast Member blockouts, it wasn’t enough to reverse the attendance woes. There was the summer slump, followed by a wild fall as it took some time to change public perceptions about the “crowdpocalypse” and for tourists to take trips.
Ultimately, this sets forth a lot of variables and factors that will influence crowds without making any definitive predictions. Frankly, I’m a bit reluctant to do that because there are so many factors at play–and even more that I’m not fully taking into consideration (e.g. unemployment, stimulus money, lingering safety fears, etc).
With that in mind, if I were a California resident I would aim to visit on weekdays in early to mid-May 2021. My rationale for this would be missing the first few days, which could have some operational “hiccups.” I’d still want to go during the first couple of weeks, as I suspect capacity will be capped then to a greater degree than later in May or early June. If those dates weren’t viable, I’d still be comfortable anytime before Memorial Day or the opening of Avengers Campus (in large part because I could not care less about that new land, but think it will drive attendance).
As out of state visitors, our tentative plan is to visit immediately after June 15, 2021. My suspicion is that overall attendance will have increased by this point, but I’m also cautiously optimistic that ride/restaurant/retail/etc. capacity and efficiency will be significantly higher thanks to the retirement of the reopening rules. That alone could more than offset the attendance gains. I’d expect crowds to slowly grow over the course of the summer, roughly following the same trajectory as Walt Disney World. I think that pretty much any date through late August will be comfortable, but I’d still avoid weekends if at all possible. All bets are off once Halloween Time arrives (that should be around September 10, 2021) or Annual Passes return, whichever happens first.
Planning a Southern California vacation? For park admission deals, read Tips for Saving Money on Disneyland Tickets. Learn about on-site and off-site hotels in our Anaheim Hotel Reviews & Rankings. For where to eat, check out our Disneyland Restaurant Reviews. For unique ideas of things that’ll improve your trip, check out What to Pack for Disney. For comprehensive advice, consult our Disneyland Vacation Planning Guide. Finally, for guides beyond Disney, check out our Southern California Itineraries for day trips to Los Angeles, Laguna Beach, and tons of other places!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What are your predictions for Summer 2021 crowds and attendance at Disneyland and DCA? Think our expectations are accurate or off? Think there are other variables we’ve missed? Have you made theme park reservations for the opening months? Do you have plans to visit California this summer or fall, or will you hold off until 2022? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Other thoughts or concerns? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Any updates on crowds and trends in the last several weeks? What has been the wait time for the most popular rides? Are week day crowds still lower than weekends?
Very interesting analysis. We were planning on coming in October, but your thoughts are making me re-consider for a weekday trip in July. We’d be coming in from out of town, and we’re already vaccinated, but our kids are not. Thanks for the post, please keep us updated on your thoughts on the best time to go, we can’t wait to visit for the first time!
Hi Tom,
Thanks for the great article! I have been going to Disneyland since I was a kid but haven’t been in a couple of years. Also, for many years, I was a pass holder. Anyway, we have a trip planned but now I’m worried about the timing. My husband could only get off the week June 15. So we will be going the 16-18. I’m hoping that though the crowds might be bigger, maybe more restaurants and rides will be open? I don’t know but it was our only option so we took it:) Our son has been so excited to get back to Disney. What are your thoughts about when they might reopen the Disneyland hotel and Paradise Pier? Any rumors? Thanks so much!
We booked for Jun 9, midweek after Avengers Campus opens (we’re yearly visitors and it’s the prime reason we want to go during the reduced-capacity frame). I’m a little worried after reading your article that I chose the worst possible time but theres really only a 2 week window after AC opens before the park goes back to (I presume) full capacity, which we want to avoid.
We are planning a trip in March 2022. We are taking our almost 6 year old granddaughter (her first visit) who loves princesses and animals. We are thoroughly confused at which hotel to stay in. Is there a simple answer? Please help!!!!! Thank you.
As a former AP and local resident, I would maybe go one time and then wait for the new AP program to roll out. To an average SoCal family, there’s no way you can justify casual trips to the park until then. It will be quite some time before we would call it packed.
“Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge entry reservations were quickly fully booked”
I forget, did Disneyland have a cap far lower than Galaxy Edge capacity or was it entirely a matter of assuming that a full Galaxy Edge meant a full Disneyland?
I think it was a mix of a purposefully lower capacity cap for Galaxy’s Edge and also a lot of no-shows. You could make land reservations without having park tickets, leading to some ‘speculative’ bookings.
I’m guessing that’s a big part of why the current system requires tickets for park reservations.
I think it is definitely a Galaxy’s Edge situation going on here. Locals were worried the parks would be crowded (and are probably less comfortable with crowds at the moment than Floridians since less of CA is open without restrictions), and decided that since the parks aren’t going anywhere they can afford to wait.
I also think the lack of entertainment/parades is a big consideration for a lot of locals, who have been to the parks a lot and may have had their fill of the rides. Pre-pandemic weren’t there a good chunk of locals who would show up after work, snack and do maybe a ride or two but mostly hang out and watch the fireworks or nighttime parade? Again, the parks aren’t going anywhere, so if a big part of the appeal for someone was the fireworks then it makes sense to just wait until that stuff comes back.
I must admit I’ve been lured by the cheap prices and the ‘4th night free’ deals and was planning on booking a trip in September. I’ve never done DisneyLand, but the idea of getting to see it with low crowds is so tempting that if May opens up I might hop over there last minute. We did Disney World Three times since last July, and I’ve been in a depressive funk about never getting to see a park so delightfully empty again. Then, here they go offering this up like they’ve got a tap into my psyche. I’m going to be so spoiled!
Hello, great article thanks. About thw restrictions, do you have any news about foreign visitors? We are looking forward to visiting throughout September or early October. Thanks.
Hello, great article. Thanks a lot. What about foreign visitors, is there any restrictions? Thanks.
PS: I’m looking forward to visiting throughout September or early October.
Tom,
I contacted the CDPH yesterday morning when I came across that addendum in the Blueprint, got transferred around talking to what felt like every person In the California Government and no one could give me a straight answer on if the “Fully Vaccinated” statement would apply to theme parks, great to see Sea World blink first, hopefully the story develops further soon!
Thanks for the info! I’m not surprised one hand wouldn’t know what the other was doing. We had a similar situation in Florida back when the travel bans were in the process of being lifted for certain states. Took me forever to get a straight answer, and even that didn’t feel like “confirmation” since it wasn’t published anywhere.
I suspect it’ll be a similar story here, with the real/final confirmation coming when Disneyland.com is updated.
Awesome! Thanks, Tom. It looks very promising!
The May calendar suddenly has 4 days showing availability to start in Disneyland park. That’s a big change from the image in the article above.
I’m looking at the real-time calendar right now, and it’s identical to the image here. This is the park hopper calendar–are you looking at 1 park per day tickets?
You hit the nail on the head, Tom. I also got “reservations for Galaxy’s Edge (jam-packed) vs. public opening of Galaxy’s Edge (crickets)” vibes from April 15th’s rush on tickets. Touring Plans is still adamantly insisting Avengers weekend will be a 2, which I think is now refuted by the sellout (to their credit, the first weekend of June typically is not a huge day; schools aren’t out quite yet), but I think June will be lower level than expected generally.
I miss the Galaxy’s Edge debut. Did one of my first Parkeologies during that time. I think the Galaxy’s Edge soft opening actually created that: so many AP friends got their fix during that time, they didn’t bother after it publicly opened (full disclosure: I don’t have friends). Basically, they just wanted a glimpse of the sights and sounds, and the one ride on Falcon, and maybe they’d hit up Oga’s when things calmed down, but really it was Rise of the Resistance we were all waiting for. As for the tourists, I think they just went to the mostly identical land in WDW. That place is for tourism. DLR really isn’t. And if you’re a Star Wars family from any state other than Florida or California choosing between a trip to Disneyland or Walt Disney World in order to visit the same newly created land based on your favorite film franchise, you’re opting for the protuberance of the nation every time.
Avengers Campus throws a wrinkle here, since there won’t be a Florida counterpart this time, but I don’t think Marvel fans are as diehard as Star Wars fans (I WILL NOT BE TAKING REPLIES AT THIS TIME AND GUESS WHAT YOU CAN’T REPLY ANYWAY BECAUSE TOM’S REPLY THING IS CURRENTLY BROKEN BUT THE POINT REMAINS DON’T @ ME). Similar to Galaxy’s Edge, Avengers Campus might not be a draw until they get that E-ticket attraction going. A curiosity for locals for the first couple months but even when out-of-state travel is reopened, I don’t think it will be the tourist draw Disney was hoping for. I kind of hope I’m wrong, I want it to be good! They have a new place to drink there, after all. Delicious.
Hey, Tom
Regarding your update: “Literally minutes after publishing this, I received a tip that California quietly removed the in-state restriction for theme parks. This is still a developing story, but we’ll hopefully have official confirmation from Disneyland within the next week as to their interpretation of the change.”
Is there anywhere online to confirm this info? I would just like to be able to monitor this report as it unfolds. Thanks.
See this on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Tom_Bricker/status/1384663235132014594
I’ll add to that thread when I learn more. If it’s a significant (positive) development, I’ll do a full post here.
We are going on 5/4 and I can’t wait!!