Explaining Increased Disney World Crowds
Upon returning from spending a couple of weeks at Walt Disney World earlier this year, I wrote an article titled, “Is There No Such Thing as an Off-Season?” In that, I speculated that wait times had increased by about 25% at the beginning of the year, and offered a number of explanations, with the mains one being the global economy, improved consumer confidence, and Disney’s manipulation of crowds.
Magic Kingdom waits hovered around 20% higher year-over-year in January and February, were ~15% higher in March, and have leveled out since. These wait times are fascinating for a number of reasons, but most interesting (for the purposes of this post, at least) is that the spikes in crowds from the beginning of the year has been “corrected.” With only four full months of the year in the books it’s probably too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but I think it is interesting to consider the why.
There was an abnormal spike in crowds at the beginning of the year, at a time when 95% of major school districts in the United States were in session. Crowd levels averaged around a 7/10, which was higher than the entirety of the summer season (Memorial Day to Labor Day) with posted wait times that were around 25% inflated year-over-year. Most fascinating is that the biggest abnormalities in crowds were occurring on weekdays rather than weekends.
A couple of explanations for this are the improving economy, consumer confidence resulting from the tax cut, and Disney manipulating capacity. One thing Walt Disney World can do is decrease operational hourly ride, to a level significantly lower than normal.
Side note: we’ve explained this before, but many Walt Disney World attractions have a huge difference between theoretical hourly ride capacity (THRC), which is how many guests could be cycled through assuming 100% efficiency, and operational hourly ride capacity (OHRC), which is the “real world” number a ride can expect to achieve thanks to humans being human, and all of that.
THRC is like a magical rock troll: not something that exists in reality. Nothing operates at 100% efficiency, as guests can unload slowly, pauses have to be made for accessibility reasons, etc. Another reason that OHRC is often lower is because Disney manipulates it. In the past this has occurred for maintenance or because capacity was under-utilized. In the last couple of years, there have been reports of Disney manipulating OHRC to save operational costs–less wear and tear on attractions and less staffing.
Len Testa of TouringPlans.com appeared on the DIS Unplugged Podcast to discuss Disney’s manipulation of crowds. The main explanation Len offers for Disney’s manipulation of capacity is a mandate for Parks & Resorts to decrease operating expenses. This makes complete sense, and is wholly consistent with what we’ve observed from Parks & Resorts for the past few years.
Walt Disney World has seen high capex numbers over the past few years, and there is no end in sight to the ballooning capex numbers between now and 2021. One way to help “offset” that to improve the appearance of Parks & Resort’s financials has been to create new revenue streams. Another has been to decrease opex.
Additionally, Josh over at easyWDW.com has done a series of posts comparing crowds this year versus last, culminating in his recent look at wait times around Magic Kingdom. Both of them reached the same conclusion (and more than an anecdotal one) about the uptick in crowds earlier this year.
This isn’t just a theory–Disney has stated as much in financial calls with investors. Disney getting over-zealous with off-season cost-savings by decreasing OHRC too much would not surprise me in the least. It wouldn’t be the first time Walt Disney World tried to cut too much fat and ended up hitting bone.
I respectfully disagree with Len’s theory that the manipulation of wait times at the beginning of the year is a scheme by Disney to justify the upcoming multi-day tiered price change (let’s be real–it’s going to be an increase, not just a “change,” for every season except value). This seems like a stretch, and to Len’s credit, he does call it tin foil territory.
Personally, I don’t think Disney needs a good (public-facing) reason to justify price increases…or any reason at all. So long as their internal financial projections justify it, they’ve got sufficient rationale (from their perspective). Guests will project their own explanations onto these increases, and an explicit rationale from Disney probably isn’t going to move the needle on the guest perception.
Most people who form strong opinions about price increases are going to be at far ends of a spectrum: super fans who will fall over themselves to offer a favorable explanation as to why they should pay more, or cynics who liken Disney to a money-grubbing tourist trap and will assume the worst. Everyone else is somewhere in the large middle ground of “indifference” (at least until they book a trip and have sticker shock).
Look back at this Orlando Sentinel article from several years ago that compiled statements from Universal and Disney justifying their price increases. I would (like to) think that most consumers would see through these statements as PR fluff. Likewise, I’d like to think the same of whatever rationale Disney proffers for this year’s and next year’s increases.
As with most PR fluff, I think justifications for price increases are likely to be forgotten by most consumers within a few days after the price increase announcement. Only the zealots are going to remember a statement about the goal of reducing crowding, and I’m guessing those people are going to visit no matter what. Given that, it seems like quite the elaborate ruse to cause an artificial spike in crowds for the sake of justifying a price increase.
Moreover, if comments on general news sources are any indication, most readers already assume Walt Disney World is crowded and unpleasant. Not only is it an elaborate ruse, it’s a detrimental one. Crowds no doubt impact guest satisfaction surveys, ratings given on sites like TripAdvisor, and long-term perceptions…which are reflected in things like reader comments.
So where does that leave us as to why it felt so busy at Walt Disney World early this year in what was traditionally an off-season time? Here, we can accept the conclusion that attractions were being operated at less than full capacity without accepting the premise that this was to artificially increase crowding. And we do.
There are a few reasons that this reduction of capacity could have occurred. First, there’s the cost-savings angle; operating attractions at lower capacity would require less staff and less maintenance, both of which would save the company money. This is an explanation that we also most definitely accept.
Second, after our ‘Is There an Off-Season?’ post, we heard from a couple of Cast Members working in the parks that internal attendance forecasts (that are used to determine staffing, among other things) were off, sometimes by nearly 10,000 guests per day.
I can’t even begin to explain why this would have occurred, but it could be that internal forecasts were intentionally lowballed by management because those numbers are what drives ride vehicle deployment and staffing levels at attractions. That’s a wild guess.
It could as simple as Disney being caught flat-footed. I think this is likely closer to the reality of what happened, and Disney whiffing on attendance projections compounded what otherwise might have been perceived as “reasonable” opex cuts to make for a situation that felt very crowded.
Finally, there’s the possibility that Walt Disney World was (or is) simply understaffed and they allocated staffing resources to weekends. In our Disney World Union Wage Negotiations post, we mention that there are 3,500+ unfilled positions at Walt Disney World, and aggressive sign-up bonuses are being offered in an attempt to fill them. Being short-staffed on the attractions side could cause a decrease in OHRC, which would explain a lot of this.
This is all interesting if you’re a Disney geek trying to explain why a time of year that has been consistently uncrowded was suddenly busy, but doesn’t really help if you’re planning a Walt Disney World vacation and wondering to what degree you can rely on crowd calendars.
The good news here is that since January and February, wait time numbers and crowd reports have more or less returned to normal. It would seem that normal and peak season crowds are far less likely to see such spikes, so if you’re traveling during a time of year that was not previously a ‘dead’ time of year, you will not see a comparable (percentage-wise) increase in wait times.
The bad news is that without having a clear picture on the why of the January and February spike, we cannot say with certainty whether other consistently uncrowded times of year like late August, September, and mid-November will see similar spikes. If this is simply a matter of Walt Disney World manipulating crowds to save on opex during times of year that are consistently uncrowded, those would be obvious targets. (Although I would hope and expect Disney to use a defter touch with future manipulations.) If other variables played a significant role in the early 2018 crowds, perhaps we won’t see comparable spikes in the fall. Unfortunately, without a definitive explanation as to why crowds spiked before, we’ll have to wait and see how things play out.
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Your Thoughts
Have you noticed a more pronounced uptick in crowds recently? Do you have any theories as to why this is occurring? Do you agree or disagree with our take? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We were there for Spring Break for the second year in a row. Last year, crowds were heavy, but manageable. This year, crowds were ridiculous. So much so, that for the first time ever, I said, “they need to readjust capacity or increase prices.” We couldn’t even walk down Main Street USA as a family of 4 because people were just standing on the sidewalks. We had to create a train and hope that our youngest stayed connected. i was so disappointed because it really didn’t make for an enjoyable experience.
What is sad for the kids, after spending all the money to get in,& having to wait 2-3 hours to get on a ride, they want to leave early. When we asked them if they wanted to come back another day they said no. Disney is ruining it for future generations. When they grow up they’ll never bring their children here. On the way out that day I couldn’t believe how many people were commenting on how it was not the “happiest place on earth.”
It’s NOT the happiest place on earth. That’s on the other coast. So those people were not wrong.
What happened in January and February was inexcusable. I see comments on forums defending Disney because there wasn’t enough staff or they didn’t know how many people were going to be there. If there wasn’t enough staff – that is Disney’s fault pure and simple and it is complete BS that Disney didn’t know how many were coming.
I’d argue that the crowd shifts in low season are due to something as simple folks not wanting to deal with three mayhem of the mid to high season and pulling their kids out of school at the beginning of the semester because there isn’t as much stuff going on then… And it’s worth it to them to miss school to have lower crowds.
I don’t think the manipulation of crowds by changing rider capacity is anything new… In fact in my observation it’s the norm. Hell, that’s what made me a Disney fan (and basically everything from the business side of things) in the first place. My wife and I started going to DLR probably 5 years ago (?) and I noticed how ride capacity would shift from a 45 min wait on some e-ticket attractions to 15 which was almost perfectly on cue with other parts of the park hemorrhaging… Then within 20-30 mins the ride that dropped is wait time was up to an actual 45-75 min wait. The rides that would do that were always ones that had the ability to increase capacity if they wanted to. After watching this happen a few times I started asking CM’s about it and they confirmed my theory that they would increase capacity to lure parkgoers from one part of the park to the other and it would work. They admitted that sometimes the wait times were faked and the queue was lengthened to make it seem like the line was shorter.. If they weren’t able to add capacity. We started following this trend and found ourselves riding a ton more rides with and without FP’s.
Another example was when we decided to fly out to DLR for the week following labor day because we just didn’t want to deal with the crowds. I knew they would trim capacity on rides but figured with the reduced crowds we’d still end up on top, even with the reduced hours. WRONG. Sure there were fewer people walking around, but that’s because everyone was stuck in line. There were also hardly any FP’s because of the reduced ride capacity. So even though there were fewer people in the park, we ended up riding significantly fewer rides than we did when the park was bursting at the seams (because we knew how to work the old system we could hold up to 3 FP’s from both parks, NOT including the night time shows.. And currently we’ve figured out a system with Maxpass and single rider). In our opinion, because of being able to work the system, it’s best to go around the busier (not busiest) times of the year…1st week in December for example.
I think a major factor is the fact that WDPR is spending billions out the wazoo on expansions currently. Every single resort around the world is undergoing multi-billion dollar expansion projects. Couple that with the fact that shareholders want money in their pockets, which requires increased profits every year by the quarter, and you will inevitably get cut costs. It’s the price you pay for all the growth. Some may say it’s not worth it, and some may say it is. But as long as all the construction continues, expect them to look for ways to save money.
After our negative experience of overcrowded parks with our 8 yr old granddaughter ( her 1st visit) in January this year, we have decided not to bring the rest of the grandchildren for their inaugural trips to WDW. (Or ourselves after abt 35 visits there.) We have heard much the same about DL. A wonderful tradition & previously doable experience lost to a great economy, unmanageable crowds with lowered behavior & expectations, reduced theming in hotels &restaurants, and probably corporate issues. By the time another recession hits, those kids will be teens and likely not interested in anything Disney.
It’s just not worth torturing ourselves or the kids. The 8 yr old was beyond ready to go home after a week of even perfectly planned fast passes & dining res & rests. It just wasn’t very magical.
With all the new additions, crowds will only get worse.
The next dip is projected to start happening at the end of this year. It was predicted two years ago and everything has fallen into place. So you might not have to wait that long.
We have gone to Disney world twice in the last 3 years. When we pay the high price of disney to wait 2+ hours per ride we are over it. Love Disney world but really only get on 4 rides a day. Have to pick what the most importaint ones are. Too much money for the stress.
In addition to the reasons suggested above, I tend to suspect that we’ve hit a point where the standard guests are mostly now familiar with the internet and use it in vacation planning, so when you combine that with the rise in advice sites and crowd calendars, the cat is more out of the bag about the off-peak times and more people are finding ways to target those, whereas in years past many similar people would’ve never given it a second thought.
A “close friend” actually had an interview for a position in Workforce Management at Disney just last week, so he had a few insights regarding this post and comments. For those that think Disney is using all of the FP+ etc. data available to them to plan staffing – they’re definitely not. They specifically mentioned that as a big opportunity for improvement. They’re not yet even figuring out which parks guests have FP+ or dining reservations for in a day, much less which rides to staff based on FP+. Most of this is due to the fact that their staffing model is shockingly low-tech. As in, it’s generated by a set of 1300+ Excel documents (not tabs – documents), and as a result is terribly unreliable. It’s slated to be upgraded/replaced within a year, but it admittedly “crashed” several times in the past year, leading to its slated replacement. Perhaps this evil-spirited manipulation was simply a failure in their model, or at least that could have been a contributing factor.
I feel like I need to move to Florida after reading this post. As a Workforce Specialist in the telecom industry, I cannot imagine (without my stomach turning, anyway), forecasting for Disney’s guest count using Excel period.
This is likely an unpopular opinion, but providing my career, give me a little slack. The current way that Disney sells daily admission (whenever in the next year, as opposed to hard ticket dates), there is no reliable staffing forecast outside of MVMCP, MNSSHP, etc. Even locking guests in to a specific month, with the ability to change that up to twice would help them plan staffing, construction, and special promotions better.
I live in a state that has more and more year round schools (elementary through high school)… not sure if this is a country-wide trend, but I wonder if that could make any type of impact?? Not sure if it’s enough to trace…
When Disney reduces ride capacity, it keeps people in the park longer. Maybe you need to buy a snack or eat a meal. If they operated the rides a full capacity, people could finish their list and leave. Consider that Disney may adjust ride capacities so that low crowd days do not offer any significant advantage over normal days, at least as far as attractions per hour is concerned. I feel as if Disney has broken a long time mutual understanding that off season means shorter waits.
Could be a combination of factors. If Disney is having trouble recruiting workers (and the $50 or so off your hotel bill if you forgo daily maid service certainly indicates this), reducing ride staffing is one way to avoid the alternative, which is increasing hourly pay to get more workers.
In addition, from Disney’s perspective if they simultaneously reduce costs and increase prices, and the Parks are still full, at least on a seasonally-adjusted basis, why should they stop? It’s no different than going to the grocery store to find that a box of food is now smaller but costs more. So far they even keep adding on deluxe features like dessert parties and behind-the-scenes tours, and people are virtually lining up to throw money at Disney. I suspect Disney will keep going in this direction until either the economy declines and/or attendance starts to suffer, particularly if they see people going to other theme parks, Universal mostly.
As the lyric goes in a song, “all the boys upstairs want to see / how much you’ll pay for what you used to get for free”. Oops, I’m bringing up the parking change, I see. Of course, I’m so old I can still remember going to Disney and leaving at the end of the day thinking, “That was a great experience for a very reasonable price.”
Interesting article, makes me feel better about scheduling our next trip for summer.
Another factor to consider is that Disney has been marketing VERY heavily to parents of toddlers and preschoolers (I swear there is new “Disney Firsts” promo in EVERY commercial break on disney junior, which stands to reason since they own the network, but still). They market the concept of a “kinder-moon” i.e., take you little ones on their first Disney trip before they are tied down with school schedules. It wouldn’t surprise me if there has been a rise in tourists in previously “off” months because they are getting in vacations at the less expensive value rate times and hotel promo times before they have to follow school schedules. There is a sea of strollers in the parks these days…
So, Is it the consensus that Disney is cutting capacity in order to minimize staff in order to maximize PROFIT? Sounds like Money Grubbing to me, ain’t no other way about it! There is a point when customer satisfaction should be considered, what that point is in Disneys estimation is beyond me.
Really interesting. I read this thoroughly, and well as the links you provided, but I couldn’t find the answer to my (admittedly selfish) question. Do you think Jan and Feb of 2019 will be as crowded as they were this year?
Thanks!
We just got back from Disney World and noticed the same thing. When we went in August 2016, it was busy but do-able. We thought May 2018 would be lower crowds… nope. In fact, the crowds were heavier than August. It was a little shocking, but definitely food for thought. There really is no off-season anymore, so might as well try to maximize your time there in other ways (such as maximizing Fastpass+ or going to Parks that aren’t doing Extra Magic Hours that day to avoid the additional crowds).
So interesting because we went in May of 2015 and it was seriously perfect. Light crowds, waits were decent, and the weather was perfect. We were not nearly as lucky in June of 17, but didn’t want to pull out if school for that one.
Our last trip was Dec 2016, fully expecting huge crowds as it was last week of free dining (18th-23rd). We were very pleasantly surprised at the crowd levels. We only had one wait for any ride that was more than 20 minutes, even without FP! Planning fall trip for 2020 with a 3 yo and will definitely be watching crowd calendars before I book.
This is always ours strategy – avoid Extra Magic Hours days, and make efficient use of standby during the first two hours after park opening and then use fastpass plus going to shows with no wait (Tiki room is the best!) after that. We’ve gone at Christmas, spring, summer, and fall in the past two years and never waited more than about 25 minutes for a ride. I don’t think I would enjoy WDW if I didn’t enjoy the planning, but if you are willing to make a plan and pay close attention to the app for wait times and fastpasses after the first three, there is really no obstacle to hitting most if not all the major attractions with minimal wait. Totally get that a lot of people hate the planning though.
I was at WDW in January and February of 2018 as well, and have been coming to WDW at this time of year for several years now. I do agree that there is some capacity management happening. I would however attribute the larger crowds to the economy, but not just in N. America. This time of year is summer break in S. America and it seems like there are ever increasing numbers of people from there at WDW during these times. This and the newly added attractions are certainly driving up crowds. Mix this with the cost-cutting measures mentioned above, and there is no doubt it is a much busier experience during what used to be low-shoulder season.
Tom, I think your conclusions are correct although I have only anecdotal support for your crowd estimate comment. The one thing I think may be driving this from a very high level is the pressure on Disney management due to the poor performance of ESPN. If you accept that Iger will someday retire and that his likely successor is already at Disney, then hitting or exceeding the numbers for your area becomes one of the largest differentiators when it comes to a successor. While raising prices is the obvious one, it does have limits and it is probably a given, so Parks management would get little, if any credit for it. That leaves two alternatives, revenue enhancement and cost cutting. While revenue enhancement (charging for parking, Minnie vans, etc) has great potential, it often requires trial and error and a lot of development. Cost cutting, on the other hand, is an established process. While Disney has not always cuts costs as effectively as they might have, they clearly know how to and I think the increase in wait times is a direct result of that effort. Because Disney tends not to use layoffs and prefers hiring freezes, I suspect that the “blip” in the early part of the year was the result of CPs leaving on January 3rd and an insufficient number being brought on to replace them. This would also explain why the problem seems to have eased to some extent in the second quarter as the CP program effectively operates on a quarterly basis. My guess is that while some increase in average wait times is inevitable the likely result over time is fewer 1s and 2s and more days in the 5 to 8 range.
Excellent thoughts all around. I hadn’t even taken into consideration the transition in the College Program, but I think that’s probably spot-on.
I also agree that the days of 1-2s on the crowd calendar (or rather, what used to be 1-2s) are gone forever. Disney has worked to redistribute crowds–and has been very effective at that–and even if a future recession or other events spells lower crowds, Disney will adjust operating capacity to achieve further cost-savings.
I absolutely agree with this and they are absolutely cutting capacity. It was very noticeable especially at Magic Kingdom last year during my trip in early June. On our first day at 9:30 AM (park opening 9 AM), we got in line for Pirates, at what was advertised as around a 20 minute wait. In reality, it took 60 minutes, and we were absolutely crawling through that line.
At first I chalked it up to FP+ and the skewed priority of FP over standby, but then suddenly near the end of the line we started moving much, much faster. It turns out they only had one load station open and they had just opened station number two. Later in the trip, I went on Pirates in the last hour the park was open and they too were only loading one side.
Something similar happened at Haunted Mansion the next full day at MK. Basically the same thing: about a half hour after opening, advertised 20 minute wait, hour long actual wait. That one may be more due to FP+ or only operating one stretching room, as I have no other explanation as to why that was. But I’ve never experienced anything remotely like that at any other castle park.
Hopefully it’s something they’ve corrected for my one day coming up this year, because it was not pleasant and it didn’t appear that DL was doing that last summer.
Pirates of the Caribbean is notorious for not operating at full capacity. It’s especially noticeable there, because it’s pretty easy to see when one of the load areas isn’t being utilized. (It’s also the attraction that I’d say has been most negatively affected by the move to FastPass+. Some of the wait times for it are asinine now!)
I think with magic band data disney is cutting costs during slow times. They have SO much data now and the tracking they can do is beyond what we know. Disney sees a ‘slow’ season and cuts ride capacity on rides they can control. What about rides with fixed ride capacity (buzz, ,PP, HM)? Pirates they can control with number of boats being loaded, coasters/number leaving etc. How did those compare for wait times? Being a former CM, costs are always a high priority to cut and with the labor needs I can see that happening during ‘slow times.
In my anecdotal experience, Haunted Mansion was not as bad as other attractions, but I’m not sure about Buzz or Peter Pan’s Flight. Buzz is notorious for having posted wait times with no basis in reality, so I’m not sure how instructive it would be, anyway.
We were at WDW in early February, the same time of year we frequently visit, and I noticed the lower capacity… it was painfully obvious.
As to the question above on how to cut capacity on fixed cap rides… you just load every other (or 5th or 6th or even 7th as we saw) ride vehicle. Spaceship Earth got hit with a bunch of people when it started to rain and they were loading about every 6th vehicle. Haunted Mansion was about 90-110 minute waits every day, frequently early in the day (or earlier than I expected to see that wait time).
There were also a ton of people with “Earning my ears” badges, and I get that, but it was pretty ridiculous at times. We are used to little-to-no wait this time of year for less popular rides and this was certainly not the case this year.