Autumn Off-Season Arrives Early at Disney World
After wait times and crowds skyrocketed during the middle of last month and peaked at the end of July, the off-season has arrived early at Walt Disney World. This post will take a look at August attendance thus far, and offer theories for the decline.
Obviously, the best explanation is the most obvious one: that this happens every year at Walt Disney World around the time when school goes back into session. However, the decline began earlier than normal in August 2021, so that’s not the singular explanation.
When looking at historical data, we throw out last year entirely. Wait times increased heading into the fall off-season last year even as hours were cut, but the big difference there is that attendance sloped up from the low lows of July all the way to Thanksgiving. It was a total anomaly, likely due to more and more people growing comfortable visiting theme parks.
Rather than theorize about the decreasing crowds, we should probably first provide supporting wait time data for that underlying premise. Otherwise, we’ll get the inevitable “I go every year and last week was the busiest it’s ever been!” comments. (This is not to diminish current crowds–it’s still busy, hot, and the lack of FastPass exacerbates everything–just to say wait times have fallen significantly since late July.)
Let’s start with a look at Magic Kingdom crowds. For context since the graph is a bit difficult to read, the two highest red bars on the far right side are July 27 and July 28 (all graphs courtesy of Thrill-Data.com).
July 28 owns the dubious distinction of having 2021’s peak wait times thus far. It’s also the date we did our most recent Magic Kingdom Rope Drop Report: Busiest Day of Year at Park Opening. I’m very glad guests have received a slight reprieve from the crowds since then, as that was miserable.
While attendance is still elevated, average wait times are down considerably since their summer highs. From 50 minutes at the end of July to 27 minutes on August 13, 2021.
The slowdown is even more pronounced at Animal Kingdom.
The average wait time there on July 28 was 57 minutes. This week, averages have ranged from 27 minutes to 31 minutes.
Hollywood Studios is also seeing lower wait times, but the fall-off has not been quite as extreme as Magic Kingdom or Animal Kingdom. The July 28 average of 51 minutes dropped to 33 minutes on August 13. For this entire week, DHS averaged a 40 minute wait.
When it comes to “feels like” crowds, DHS gives Animal Kingdom a run for its money. Not only are huge swaths of the park hot and unshaded, but the lack of entertainment and other filler leads to an even greater perception of high crowd levels. (In other words, even when the data shows lower crowds at DHS, we hear “no way, it was bad” from readers. They’re not wrong.)
Then there’s Epcot. Even when the other parks saw soaring attendance last month, Epcot was relatively flat. We explained our theory behind this in last month’s Epcot Crowd & Construction Report. Basically, it’s because the artificial capacity caps that were redistributing attendance to Epcot earlier in the spring and summer are largely gone. Demand is settling into more natural patterns, which means fewer people are “forced” to visit Epcot for lack of other alternatives.
Nevertheless, it is interesting that not even the Epcot Food & Wine Festival can buoy crowds or coax out locals. The above numbers should also help explain why Walt Disney World is doing a full month of Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure previews and opening Space 220 Restaurant in September. It’s likely an effort to pull forward demand from locals, freeing up October capacity for tourists. (And/or simply capturing extra visits from locals.)
Finally, let’s smooth out all of those parks and numbers with a look at average weekly wait times across the entirety of Walt Disney World. The last two bars are the first two weeks of August; the two bars before that are the final two weeks of July.
Thus far, wait times have only retreated to their mid-June levels. However, that’s what we’ve previously described as the “sweet spot” when capacity was still capped at a low level (and many days were fully booked) but attraction efficiency had dramatically improved. Now, there is effectively no limit on attendance–the entire Park Pass reservation calendar for August is green. Moreover, wait times will likely continue to decrease. So, what gives? Why have off-season crowds arrived already?
Our first theory is that this slowdown was an inevitability. It’s the natural conclusion of pent-up demand exhausting itself as the summer travel season drew to a close. After scorching spring and summer travel seasons during which Americans made up for lost vacation time, people have gotten their fix and are preparing for the school year.
As for the more pronounced and earlier than normal slowdown, that could be partially attributed to the lack of international visitors, conventions, and group events that would normally sustain the off-season after school starts going back into session. Another big component could be Walt Disney World fans who normally visit this time of year, but are postponing trips until October for the start of the World’s Most Magical Celebration. That thus makes this a “sweet spot” for crowds.
None of this is a huge surprise and would’ve been foreseeable months ago. In fact, our Pent-Up Demand at Walt Disney World: Scorching Summer or Full Fall? was published on March 9 and made all of these very predictions.
We’ve since updated both our August 2021 Crowd Calendar and September 2021 Crowd Calendar and more or less reiterated the same sentiment in those, with the only real wild card being the resumption of Annual Pass sales. (I think the initial impact there will be fairly negligible.)
However, pent-up demand fizzling out is not the only explanation. As we’ve noted elsewhere, trip cancellations have been on the rise in recent weeks, driven by Florida’s record case numbers and the reinstated indoor mask rule. It should go without saying, but different people are cancelling for different reasons.
In talking with travel agents and third party vendors we know, all have stated that they’re seeing a high volume of cancellations. In some scenarios, those are outpacing new bookings for the coming months. Of course, that’s entirely anecdotal and constrained to who we know–but the sample size is large enough that it’s likely close to accurate.
However, it does conflict with what Disney CEO Bob Chapek said on the recent earnings call, when asked about the Delta variant’s impact on bookings. He stated that park reservation demand for the current quarter is ahead of last quarter’s attendance numbers and the company is “still bullish” about Walt Disney World going forward.
As we pointed out in analysis of Disney’s earnings call, that quarter-to-quarter comparison isn’t apples to apples. The last quarter encompassed April through June, which had lower capacity caps and many fully booked days, meaning attendance was artificially limited. At the beginning of the quarter, that limit was 35%. It was significantly higher (probably at least 65% or 70%) by July. So of course the actual attendance for the current quarter would be higher. That doesn’t mean actual forward-looking demand is still as high.
Decreased demand and rising travel trepidation is corroborated by…pretty much everything else. Per ABC News, TSA has reported lower screenings, airlines have warned of growing cancellations, airfare is dropping, and the purchase of travel insurance is on the rise. (Nevertheless, travel numbers–from TSA screenings to airfare–are all up sharply as compared to last year at this time.)
Most notably, Southwest–which might as well be the unofficial airline of people visiting Walt Disney World–warned investors that it’s seeing mounting cancellations and slower bookings due to the Delta variant. Other airlines have expressed similar sentiment in their earnings calls. It’s to the point that Southwest said it probably won’t be profitable for the quarter, even as demand for the upcoming Labor Day holiday remains strong.
Turning to Americans themselves, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading saw a dramatic drop in early August as the Delta variant increased fears. The consumer sentiment index tumbled to 70.2 in its preliminary August reading. That is down more than 13% from July’s result of 81.2 and below even the April 2020 mark of 71.8 that was lowest of the pandemic era.
Morning Consult has been gauging when consumers will return to normal activities, like attending movie theaters, concert venues, and amusement parks. After bottoming out at 15% in the beginning of January, that number now soared to 51% of the population on Independence Day. It has since retreated to 44%. As with airline numbers, that’s still significantly higher than last year at this time–nearly triple–but it’s a quarter-to-quarter decline when continued improvement was expected prior to the Delta variant raining on the parade.
Purely speculative, but I suspect there is even more travel trepidation for Florida than other states. While the state benefitted from its early reopening this spring, the reverse is likely true due to rising cases now. Orange County officials have noted that they’re seeing convention and group booking cancellations. It’ll be interesting to see what the Orlando International Airport traffic statistics show for July v. August.
Ultimately, this bodes well for those with Walt Disney World vacations planned for the remainder of this month and September 2021. I don’t want to get out over my skis too much, but it should give some “breathing room” to crowds in October through December 2021, too.
The reasons for my, let’s call it, restrained optimism there are two-fold. First, we were previously forecasting that 3 month stretch to have Walt Disney World’s worst-ever crowds, so even a 10-20% pullback still means the parks will be incredibly busy. I don’t want anyone saying or thinking I promised low crowds due to the cancellations–it’s still going to be packed. Just probably not quite as packed.
Conversely, we’re getting to the point where cancellations could outpace new bookings for the remainder of the year. There’s an average lag of approximately 5 months between booking and traveling. It’s an inevitability that Florida’s case numbers will dramatically decrease this month. It seems probable the indoor mask rule will be lifted within a couple of months. Word will get out about low crowds, especially when they really bottom out in mid-September. However, all of that will be too late to significantly impact Fall 2021 bookings. To be sure, some people will take last minute trips, but in large part, the damage is already done. While I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it since Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary is such a wildcard, it would not be surprising if 2021 wait times peaked on July 28.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you cancelled a trip to Walt Disney World in 2021? Have any anecdotes of your own about cancellations? Conversely, are you considering a last-minute trip in September to take advantage of the anticipated low crowds? Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will hit record levels come October 2021, or will enough people cancellation to blunt the numbers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We have reservations for Sept 18-25 and haven’t even considered canceling. In fact, we continue planning and discussing every single day and I’ve changed resorts for the second half of the week 5 times in the last two weeks. It’s me and my two sons, 16 and 19, my parents, 68 and 69, and my brother, his wife and kids, ages 12 and 8. Only the 12 and 8 year old are unvaccinated. On top of that most of us have already been exposed to Delta (I am a teacher, my mom is a nurse, and the 16, 12, and 8 year olds have been in school for two weeks and the numbers in our county are HIGH) so we aren’t really worried about exposure at Disney. We were hoping masks would be gone by then, but can live with indoor only. As my oldest is already in college and my other son will graduate in 2023 and it takes a lot of talking to convince my dad to come, we figure it will be the last time we will all be able to go together for a while. It would more than likely take Disney actually closing for us to cancel our trip. We do usually go yearly, sometimes twice a year, but it’s more rare (maybe every 4 years) that we all go together. I’m hoping crowds continue to stay low since we’ll be so close to the anniversary. But I’m still expecting it to be a pretty good trip.
Covid uptick worries the fate of my Nov visit. How will disney handle tickets if I cancel? I plan to be in the swan and don’t have a package deal. Will they allow a refund or credit for future use? Or am I out all that cash?
I waited till the last minute and canceled our Sept 1st vacation. I’m not opposed to masks, but they won’t be fun in the FL humidity, and the Covid rates in FL are just too high for me to be comfortable taking the risk.
We are on the fence about cancelling our early November trip. We are all vaccinated but have a special needs person traveling with us. If the numbers are still high in Florida and limited beds available at hospitals we won’t risk anyone’s health if care is needed. WDW will still be there next year!
We are booked for end of October, I am hoping the mask rule will be relaxed by then, as this is a big trip for us! We have changed our trip twice already! It’s so expensive we want to enjoy our trip and we know all the risk. If they go back to mask all day we will have to cancel and try Universal. We are vaccinated but we all have to learn to live with this and the next virus that comes!
At DHS today, a Sunday. These are very low crowds.
8:30- Rope dropped Runaway Train
8:50ish- Smuggler’s run, nearly walk on.
9:20ish- Toy Story Mania, nearly walk on
About 9:50-10:15, took Starbucks break. But my daughter did Tower of Terror in that window – basically walk-on
10:25, we had our Rise of Resistance
10:50- Star Tours, walk on
so… 6 real attractions, no more than a 5-10 minute wait for any of them. All in the first 2 hours of official park time, 2.5 hours including the first 30 minutes.
Honestly, fast pass wouldn’t have made it any better. Going back this evening, will probably get in Slinky Dog near close. I
I hate lines… but it’s impossible for even me to complain about that.
We will be arriving at WDW in three days ! It’s called common sense. Wear a mask indoors and social distance as much as possible. I’ve been three times during covid and thank the Lord all has been good. We felt very safe but we were smart about what we did and if anyone got to close we would very nicely ask them to back up some and absolutely no problems. We are vaccinated but still have to be smart about what we do.
@ Dave @ Cathie
Thank you for sharing your recent experience at the parks!
The Boardwalk Inn is definitely my home away from home and I always looked forward to the walk over to Epcot or Hollywood to rope drop or after park hopping and returning back at night.
We just returned from a trip to Disneyworld this week. All in all a great trip with the lower wait times. We were using DVC points that would have expired by the end of August so we took our chances. Our casual observations were that Disney was not very strict on the mask compliance. We ate at table service restaurants each day and nearly everyone removed their mask as soon as they sat down. In que lines some guests were pulling their mask down under their noses and we saw a few teenagers remove their mask completely. It didn’t bother us, but may have bothered others. There were no Disney “mask police” harping on anyone, just occasional gentle reminders. There was no such thing as social distancing. Ques were packed and shows like Festival of the Lion King filled every available seat. We originated from Newark airport (OMG the security line was a hot mess, longest and most jam packed with people that you could ever imagine) We commented that it appeared that everyone must just be over this whole pandemic thing and are ready to put it behind and start enjoying life again and take some risks. We felt comfortable traveling in the crowds since we were vaccinated, though our children are not. My advice to you is that if you are expecting to social distance while at Disney, don’t go. There was no way to avoid crowded situations both indoors and out. But if you’re like us, you’ll be glad you went.
After thinking, “when will we ever get back to WDW?”, we had a great day yesterday in the parks. We started with the lovely walk to Epcot from the Boardwalk (“welcome home” never sounded so good). Epcot was very quiet during the afternoon and after a traditional Bass Ale at UK and a terrific Impossible burger at Earth Eats booth we decided to do the park hop gamble to MK. Perhaps the rain drove out the morning crowds as wasn’t very crowded. We managed the light rain with umbrellas and the the lines went fast: PoC said 25 minutes but was more like 10, BTM said 15 and was less than 5 minutes. A bad weather day at WDW still beats a good day in the office! We forgot that MK closed at 6pm and it appears everyone park hopped to Epcot where is became very busy. It was too crowded for us so we did the Epcot loop and went back to our room.
When we booked this trip, Delta had yet to explode and then last week I was watching my weather apps for the tropical storm(s). Sigh. What to do? We are glad we made the trip, however we will mask up more frequently today even while outside. While in line at HM there was a big Brazilian party in front of us and they were handing out Tylenol to someone who wasn’t feeling good. We promptly got out of line (we are fully vaxxed by the way but still are taking the virus very seriously).
Tom and Sarah thanks for all of the posts over the past 18 months as they gave us hope on what was on the other side of the pandemic. I would binge read them all during the weekends. I respect anyone’s decision to cancel or wait longer for your return. Best to be prudent. Off now to enjoy a day at AK and then back to Epcot!
We cancelled last years and this years 23 july to 13th august as we are not allowed to enter the USA at this time on a esta for holiday purposes have booked for 4 weeks next year hoping it will go ahead
As a nurse, deciding to cancel or keep our upcoming September trip weighed very heavily on my conscious. Florida had been experiencing daily record breaking Covid numbers and a positivity rate over 19% when it was time to make our final payment. Ultimately my husband and I opted to keep our booking. We are both vaccinated, as are our children we are traveling with. We will do our best to social distance, wear our masks, and keep hand sanitizer handy. We also have a trip planned for October which includes members of our family that are not vaccinated. I made the final payment on that trip as well. I do hope that numbers are going in the right direction as October grows near. We have traveled to Disney various times since the pandemic began and honestly for the most part I have felt safer there than the grocery.
Just cancelled my trip for next week Aug.23 I can’t risk it with my 10 yr old not vaccinated and the mayor declaring “crisis mode” Orange County. It’s so upsetting.
I’m not sure we will make our trip at the end of September. Everything I hear about Florida raises the hair on the back of my neck, meaning it doesn’t seem safe and my gut is telling me to cancel. Fortunately, we have a room only reservation so we can cancel closer to our trip.
I thought the numbers in Florida would be stabilizing or declining by now, but they are steadily rising. I don’t want to start a conversation about why, because honestly my brain can’t take any more of that subject. I don’t trust that Disney is following protocol regarding cast members who test positive either. I believe they are looking the other way and letting them work as they are so short staffed. (This is also not meant to start a conversation). Many of us know cast members and we have heard rumors. Whether those rumors are true or not, it’s frightening that they even exist. I am fully vaccinated but don’t want to get covid, especially the very contagious delta variant. Yes, I can stay home, and maybe I will.
I just cancelled a September trip the other day. As a Canadian, going into the hotspot for delta on a solo trip, where I’m denied my flight home if I test positive, seemed too risky. Going with the husband end of October, so I feel more secure if something happens.
We’re just about ready to cancel our 1st week in November trip. We have 4 grandchildren ages 4-7 and are unable to receive vaccine. We are in NJ and if the kids aren’t vaccinated and travel out of state they would have to quarantine when we return and they can’t afford to be out of school 2 weeks after missing so much last year. This will be our 2nd cancel in 9 months. I’m hoping for April 2022 but it will probably be packed!
We cancelled our trip August 7-13 because Allegiant cancelled our flight just several hours before departure. No explanation given. Boo hiss, Allegiant!! Very stressful. In the end, we would have lost the first two days of our stay, so we cancelled. Truly awful experience–wasted hours of planning and packing–wasted vacation days off work, etc. 🙁
I love your posts, as they are always very detsiled and backed my research as well as personal experience. What’s your opinion on when indoor masking will be reversed?
Ehhhhh…
I previously thought this round of indoor masking would be short lived (over by October), but I’m no longer confident in that assessment. I’ll just say that it’s as much a business decision as it is a health one, and neither side of that is particularly clear-cut right now.
We waited until the latest date possible. But we just canceled our September Disney week vacation.
Very disappointed but at ease with the decision.
“Southwest—which might as well be the unofficial airline of people visiting Walt Disney World” I guess that makes the official airline of the people cancelling, wait for it, Delta!
Who didn’t see that coming a mile away?
Without question Covid Delta is the #1 reason for cancellations and the drop in attendance but Tom is 100% correct that this latest variation, which is really not deadly to the vaccinated or to young children, is spreading so fast that herd immunity should be reached very soon (I’m hearing mid September) and the numbers will drop dramatically.