‘Last Hurrah’ Summer 2025 Crowds Spike at Disney World
July 2025 is finishing with a bang at Walt Disney World after initially starting slow. Wait times and crowd levels are increasing, a trend that’s likely to continue until off-season and Halloween arrive next month. This shares data plus our on-the-ground observations, plus theories for the increase and why international travel hasn’t been hit as hard as expected.
Up until this point, July had been the slowest month of the year to date. That’s still true, but wait times have rebounded significantly since the first couple weeks. If July finishes strong, it could surpass June. The lower averages for July are still being dragged down by the beginning of the month, when the Independence Day holiday significantly underperformed for the third consecutive year.
The first week of July 2025 is the lowest of the year-to-date, with a 26 minute average and crowd level of 1/10. This just barely edged out mid-June (27 minutes, 1/10) for the lowest week of 2025. July 2-6 has been the slowest stretch of the month-to-date, with wait times bottoming out at 21 minutes (1/10 crowds) during that stretch. Sunday, July 6, 2025 was the deadest day of the entire year thus far. Since those low lows, wait times have rebounded. Summer looks like it’s going to finish strong thanks to “last hurrah” travel…
With the exception of a couple weeks, summer has been slow–sometimes very slow–up until this point. And just to be clear, what we’ve experienced and observed is nothing even approaching truly busy. It’s not even above-average crowd levels. It’s just the busier, in relative terms, than summer has been up until now. Which, again, is fairly slow.
Last month, we covered some of the reasons for this dynamic in Why Summer is the New Low Crowds Season at Disney World. Here’s a list of quick hits for those who want the rundown:
- Epic Universe
- International Travel Pullback
- Economic Uncertainty
- Starlight Delays
- Shifting Schedules
- High Heat & Humidity
- Shorter Park Hours
- No Special Events/Diet EPCOT
- Minimal Mitigation
- Annual Pass Blockouts
Not all of those potential theories were equally important. As discussed there, some actually had a fairly negligible impact, or an outsized one in fan perceptions. Others were more significant, and were years-running trends.
You might notice that some fan favorite explanations are not mentioned, such as higher costs. This isn’t to say Walt Disney World doesn’t have a pricing problem that’s resulted in some guests balking at vacations. It does.
As we’ve discussed in countless posts, including Is Walt Disney World Too Expensive for Middle Class Americans? But pricing does not explain why summer, in particular, continues to see its year-over-year wait times decrease.
Anyway, let’s turn to the month-to-date wait times data for July 2025, courtesy of thrill-data (ditto the above stats)…
Even with a second-half rebound, July has still been the slowest month of 2025 thus far, with an average wait time of 29 minutes and 2/10 crowd level. Prior to this month, the slowest month of the year was last month, when June had an average wait time of 31 minutes and a crowd level of 3/10. In the last 12 months, the only slower months have been last September and October, which had hurricane scares.
While July 2025 as a whole still has the lowest crowd levels of the last year-plus, this week is currently the busiest spring April! Again, this is relative terms, as no dates during shoulder season and summer have had heavy crowds. Not only that, but the week isn’t over yet and weekend data isn’t included. Nevertheless, this week has an average of 34 minutes for a crowd level of 4/10.
As always, that is an average, which still means that hour-plus waits (or even 120+ minutes, as we’ve spotted on a few occasions) are possible for the headliners at peak times. They’re just offset by 5-10 minute waits for lower profile attractions. There have also been plenty of days that have been busier than that average.
What’s perhaps most notable about this is that the numbers keep climbing. Normally, we’d expect Monday and Tuesday to be the busiest days of the week, but wait times have gotten progressively higher. All of that signals to us that this might be the start of “last hurrah” summer travel.
This is not hugely surprising. To the contrary, it’s expected. There are only two weeks during June and July on our list of the Worst Weeks at Walt Disney World in 2025-2026, which we refer to as the twin peaks of summer.
One is around the halfway point in June, and one that we’ve described as a “last hurrah” as travelers scramble to take trips before school going back into session. These peaks aren’t completely consistent, but have more or less been the end of June and end of July, with Mondays being especially bad.
Our previous prediction was that July 21-28, 2025 would be the height of “last hurrah” travel. Based on what we’re currently seeing, it’ll probably be more like July 23 to August 1, 2025. Those predictions were made before Starlight had its debut date set, and I could see some families scrambling to plan trips after the initial rush of the new parade, but while the biggest discounts are still in effect.
Wait times data doesn’t tell the full story of ‘feels like’ crowds because people are staking out prime Starlight night parade spots or for Happily Ever After fireworks. This is a story that’ll repeat itself over the coming months at Magic Kingdom in the evenings once Starlight debuts–massive congestion along the parade route, but walk-on rides.
If anything, Starlight has flipped the script to an extent. The crowd levels are based on wait times data, and there’s no such data for parade or fireworks viewing. To the contrary, entertainment typically has the effect of pulling people away from rides, which is a dynamic we’ve noticed over the last week. So there’s more congestion at the front of the park, as Tomorrowland and Fantasyland hollow out and those headliners have lower wait times.
Setting aside evenings in Magic Kingdom, I wouldn’t say there have been many surprises with feels like crowds versus wait times. I’ve spent a lot of time in the parks over the last week, and crowds were about as expected. Last weekend was noticeably slower than this week, which is reflected in the data.
One wrinkle we’ve been struggling with is international attendance. During the most recent earnings call, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was asked if the domestic parks have seen a hit to international visitation (reasons for which are discussed in Canadians Are Canceling Walt Disney World Vacations). Johnston indicated that Walt Disney World and Disneyland have seen roughly 1% to 1.5% declines of international attendance. However, that was before the worst of the trade tensions would’ve had an impact.
Visit Orlando and the Tourist Development Council in Orange County have painted an even more bleak picture, indicating a drop of around 8% for international tourism as a whole to Central Florida. Airlines and other agencies have likewise shown a fairly significant drop, especially from Canada and Europe, where inbound numbers are down by double-digit percentages.
Then there’s the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority, which has released stats for MCO through May, which showed international passenger traffic is still up 9.3%, while domestic passenger traffic is down 4.2% (for a combined decrease of 2.6%). International traffic now accounts for 14.6% of passengers at MCO, an all-time high, surpassing the previous record from the summer of 2019.
It’s impossible to reconcile all of this, but I’m inclined to give the most weight to Disney’s own numbers and passenger stats from MCO, since Visit Orlando doesn’t share its methodology, and those numbers are always accompanied by quotes that lead me to believe it’s a survey of travel agents or something less scientific.
Regardless, I now have my own less-scientific theory: South American tour groups are propping up Walt Disney World’s international numbers.
Over the course of the last week-plus, I have seen more South American tour groups than at any point in the last decade. I know, I know: anecdotes are not data. There’s always the risk of overweighting a visible phenomenon. In fact, we warn against falling into this ‘trap’ when it comes to cheer and dance groups, which stand out in the parks despite not moving the needle much on overall crowd levels.
It’s a similar story with South American tour groups. Not only are they large in size, but they stand out thanks to neon shirts and flags. And to be very clear, I’m not suggesting that these tour groups are having a huge impact on overall crowd levels. They aren’t. But I do think they’re probably a sufficiently meaningful boost to attendance to offset the losses from Canada and Europe. That’s really the perfect way to square all of this; while I’ve heard noticeably fewer Canadian and European guests, there was an equally noticeable uptick in South American groups.
For what it’s worth, this many South American tour groups is not historically abnormal. There was a time when it felt like Brazilian tour groups were the dominant demographic during summers at Walt Disney World. This was especially pronounced coming out of the Great Recession up until 2014, before the Brazilian economic crisis but a dent in tour group numbers.
With Brazil’s economy surging, tour groups are once again appearing in higher volumes. This also is not a new-for-2025 trend; I first noticed tour groups returning in full force last winter. But it feels like they’re back in even fuller force this summer, with more vibrant bags, flags, and shirts.
Although I haven’t dug deep into this since it just appeared on my radar, I would hazard a guess that political tensions are less relevant with South America bookings than Canada or Europe (at least, reservations that are already locked in–new strife has emerged in the last couple of weeks). There’s also the wildcard of whatever Walt Disney World is doing to entice South American tour groups. It’s possible that Disney has gotten more aggressive with marketing or packages to this demographic; that’s a complete blind spot for us.
Of course, these are just theories. But this strikes me as the best way to reconcile MCO’s higher international passenger volume with everything else. Walt Disney World seeing an organic uptick in South American visitors passes the smell test for me, as does targeting a market for summer travel that is presumably more tolerant of Florida heat and humidity.
Beyond that, my biggest observation has been higher crowds first thing in the morning followed by a midday lull and an evening spike. None of this is the least bit surprising, as there were several heat advisory days during that stretch with mid to upper 90s high temperatures and triple-digit feels like readings.
This is something we’ve seen repeatedly during the summer months over the last few years. Guests arrive early to beat the heat, making Early Entry and regular rope drop comparatively worse than during the winter, spring, and fall months. I did several days of field testing, and all of this played out as it normally does, with the bad luck of ride downtime and delayed openings exacerbating waits every morning for me.
The other observation I’d add is that the pools I walked past were packed (mostly monorail loop, Crescent Lake, plus Pop Century–didn’t stop by anywhere else). Not just during the middle of the day, but pretty much all day. I had a pool view room at the Poly, and was surprised by just how busy it was at all hours. This is very anecdotal, but it tracks with what we’ve seen in recent summers. My assumption is that guests are purchasing fewer park days due to rising ticket costs, and are also doing more pool time to beat the heat. (Sorry, I cannot speak to water parks.)
There’s a similar dynamic later in the day, with late afternoons and evenings being worse. This was especially true this week during Extended Evening Hours at EPCOT, which were far worse than dates this winter and spring when daytime crowds were actually higher.
Again, this is entirely normal. We’ve seen time and time again that Extended Evening Hours nights are worse during the summer. There’s proportionally higher uptake as more eligible guests try to beat the heat. Some of the worst ExEH nights are from June through August, surpassed only by the peak weeks of the year (Thanksgiving, Christmas, NYE, Presidents Day, Easter, etc). This always happens, and is despite below-average daytime crowds.
This year, it doesn’t help that ExEH moved to Animal Kingdom on Wednesday, which probably pushes more guests to take advantage of ExEH at EPCOT. I didn’t even bother with the perk at DAK since it still ends so early. I did, however, do dinner at Tiffins the previous night and exited 90 minutes after park closing…to an empty park before sunset. I suspect Extended Evening Hours offered a fairly similar vibe the following night.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely that July 2025 will catch up to June in terms of overall crowd level and wait time average with less than a week left in the month. But the gap is closing and it’s definitely finishing strong; it’s just that the first half of July is still dragging down the overall numbers. Each week since Independence Day has been progressively busier, culminating in the current week being the busiest at Walt Disney World since April.
I wouldn’t bet against next week being even busier. At least, the first half of the week, which could be the busiest 3-5 day stretch at Walt Disney World since Easter week. To be abundantly clear, it’s probably not going to be truly packed–we’re still talking crowd levels and wait times that are in moderate to above-average territory.
My own perception of crowds has been that they’re fairly low during the middle of the day and mostly manageable even for Early Entry/rope drop and in evenings, but sometimes slightly surprising on the busy side. It’s not as if the parks are suddenly slammed–even Main Street ahead of Starlight and Happily Ever After has been better than I expected, with the 11 pm parade performance being downright good. I was pleasantly surprised by this, and expect the worst is still to come from October through December.
Speaking of forward-looking crowds, our expectation is that crowds remain elevated (relative to earlier this summer) through Monday, August 11, 2025. That’s the first day of school for many Central Florida districts (and beyond), which means the “last hurrah” will continue for locals in the two weeks prior to then, as well as for some tourists (mostly Southern states within driving distance). This is hardly a bold prediction–it’s also a trend we’ve seen play out in the last couple of years.
After that, the big question will be just how low off-season crowds drop from mid-August through mid-to-late September. Will any weeks or days “beat” the Independence Day lull? My guess is that they will, setting new records for the lowest dates at Walt Disney World in 2025. Late September and October are the bigger wildcards–the latter is almost certain to see a year-over-year bounceback, but September could once again reclaim the crown as the slowest month of the year.
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Your Thoughts
Have you visited Walt Disney World in the second half of July 2025? What has been your perception of wait times and crowds? Has it been busier than you expected in the mornings and evenings? Slower midday? Thoughts on Main Street congestion since Starlight debuted? What has been your experience with WDW crowds? Any observations about attendance trends during the fall months that follow this summer dip? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
I’ve enjoyed talking to a number of UK families this summer. It sounds like a good deal for them to stay at a WDW hotel for 14 days with food included. Some of them were venturing out of the bubble to Epic and Sea World’s Aquatica too while staying at WDW. And the Brazilian tour groups are definitely here, especially groups of young women.
how do you think D23 will affect crowds the last weekend in August?
I visited this week, and stayed at Boulder Ridge. I agree with your observations about tour groups at Magic Kingdom (we saw a few, but not hugeeee groups- max maybe 15 neon shirts together), people lining up early for Starlight (we observed people staking out spots around 5:30 and also observed people commenting on it). We purchased Multipass for MK and Epcot, and LL for Seven Dwarves, Tron, and Guardians which cut down wait times. We felt that the parks just did not feel as busy as they had in the past. Maybe people were waiting on lines, but Haunted Mansion had a short wait around noon, for example, where in the past the line has been very long. Even our hotel was quiet, including the pools, with the exception of the restaurant waiting area at dinner time. Buses and boats were not crowded nor did they have long lines. Epcot was eerily quiet. We did wait on the Test Track standby for about 75 minutes at early entry- but the wait was actually shorter when we got off the ride. The closed booths in the World were a bummer (the way you feel about Beaver Tails is how I feel about Belgium fruit waffles). Two interesting places we noticed crowds- Typhoon Lagoon (which was noticeably busy thanks to the current freebie) and Disney Springs (on a super hot day no less). We did not visit AK or HS on this trip, so can’t speak to that aspect. I also noticed a few UK and Canadian accents but not nearly as many as usual. I also received a comeback (‘Bounceback’) offer of 35% off after checkout ( it was in My Disney Experience- no phone calls necessary and 7 days to take advantage of it). That was a sweet surprise.
We are currently at WDW but leaving tomorrow. I was surprised to see that I could book the bounce back offer on my own on the website. I did not have to call anyone. It recognized that I was eligible for bounceback so I could see what was available and prices.
How do you feel like this compares to current crowd levels at Disneyland and DCA? Should crowd levels be expected to drop there as well for an August 10-13 trip?
Disneyland has not been nearly as busy as expected this summer, but it looks like wait times have similarly spiked over the last week. (I haven’t been in the parks since 7/17, since I was at WDW all week, so my anecdotal observations are all pre-spike.)
I would expect crowds to drop for your dates due to schools going back into session, but then spike briefly around August 18-19 because that’s when 1-day ticket prices bottom out. In the past, that has always sparked a surge in demand. That’s a weird and unique wrinkle to August crowds that differs between the two coasts.
What beautiful photos you have!
Thanks for the kind words!
What is your opinion on mid-november? Specifically the week prior to Thanksgiving week.
That’s one of the best weeks to visit: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/best-worst-weeks-disney-world-crowd-calendar/
thank you very much for the link. it is very kind of you to take your time to answer me and it is much appreciated.
Is there any reason to think the weekend of August 16th and 17th would be impactfully less busy than the weekend of August 9th and 10th? I prefer the weekend of the 9th and 10th, but could pivot to the following weekend if there should be a noticeable decrease.
If you’re just talking about the weekends, they should be pretty close–they were last year. I wouldn’t change my plans in August 9-10 worked better for me than August 16-17.
If you’re talking the full weeks that follow those weekends, later in August is definitely better.
I’ll be there tomorrow through Aug 1 right during your peak week estimate. Hoping you are wrong haha, but we bought all the lightening lanes and are doing a Hollywood studios after hours so we’ll be fine. Just hoping transportation, rides, retail and quick service restaurants etc. are all properly staffed to handle the surge, and that we’re still able to have a great time. Each trip we’ve taken post pandemic (this will be Disney visit #7) has been a little bit better than the last. Feels a little more magical each visit. Hoping that can continue for us for this trip too!
Just to be clear, the (potentially) worst week of summer is still pretty far from a peak week of the entire year. I’d be shocked if crowd levels over the next two weeks were higher than 6/10 as a whole. Might have a few 7/10 park/days sprinkled in there, but it shouldn’t be too bad overall. I’d be more worried about weather, honestly.
Things have definitely been gradually getting better, so regardless of crowds (and weather), I’m sure you’ll have a great time!
Glad to see Disney World is on the up-and-up! Can’t wait to see how high they go 🙂
Ok, update on my comment! I’ve been here 3 days, and been to MK, HS, and AK. The crowds are medium, and maybe a low-medium. Magic kingdom was only crowded along the parade route but wait times for rides were very low. For comparison I was here Jan 25-29 and it felt much more crowded then! It is hot be we are from the south so it’s not a big deal to us and we know the cure is a slushy after each ride or show!
So would you predict that if taking a trip next summer, book over 4th of July? We have the end of May through first week-ish of August as available dates. I was thinking late July would be the best, but your observations have me rethinking…
“So would you predict that if taking a trip next summer, book over 4th of July?”
Yep! Annual Pass blockout calendars are already out, and July 2-6 should once again be the sweet spot based on that. Eventually, Walt Disney World is going to figure out that those blockouts are a problem and do something aggressive to reverse the Independence Day decline, but there’s no sign of that happening in 2026.
We were there over the 4th this year. We commented several times how empty the parks appeared to be. Although this was only observation and not based on data. We stayed on property and ate on property. We thought the same thing about resort occupancy and restaurants. All in all it was a good time to go. Loved the fireworks at both MK and Epcot that were special for 4th of July.
I can definitely confirm the South American tour groups, I have never seen so many at the parks as I did the first week of July. Even saw a group with a plaid when rope dropping AK one morning, which is not something usual ime.
But I hope you’re equally correct about off-season crowds for the sake of my next trip down, I’m certainly praying Labor Day weekend is as dead as July 4th weekend was!
Very interesting about the South American tour groups with a plaid for rope drop. I’ve never seen that! Although I know that some of them were *very* big spending and extremely lucrative for WDW ~10 years ago, and I’d assume that’s true again.
I’m also hoping for (and expecting) the best over Labor Day. EPCOT will obviously have higher feels like crowds for Food & Wine, as well Starlight, but wait times should be similarly light, especially when the Pirate Pass is blocked out.
We noticed the same thing at that time. It seemed like they were everywhere. We especially noticed it at Epcot at closing. However, during the day, while they were there, it didn’t seem to impact ride times, etc. or at least from our viewpoint.
I think you’ve hit on something with South American travel.Not only are they doing better financially than Canada or Europe, they are not as adverse to the hot humid weather.
From Climatestotravel.com
“In Brazil, the largest country in South America, the climate is equatorial, hot all year round with constant rain, in the northwest, in the Amazon rainforest, while it is tropical with a dry season in the centre-south. In the extreme south, on the other hand, the climate is subtropical, with mild winters (but colder than in the rest of the country) and hot summers.”
Direct flights between London and Orlando were incredibly busy and expensive (I had to fly indirectly) – despite more direct flights than ever. I don’t think UK demand is depressed at all.
I think the key may lie in the different ticketing strategies. US visitors buy individual park days at great incremental cost that are hoarded like precious gems and encourage commando touring (hence the Disney springs and pools observations), whereas UK visitors buy 14-day tickets that they only use a fraction of and which make park time valueless. My gut feeling is that while the parks are quieter, the latter is a more successful model, since it leads to more dining and merchandise sales (perhaps slightly at the expense of Lightning Lanes).
I can’t speak to prices, but MCO’s data certainly backs up everything else you’re saying (and I have no reason to doubt you on airfare).
In part, I wonder if the UK is an outlier as compared to the rest of Europe. That the average UK guest is less likely to give up their Orlando holidays, absent a recession, especially given the lagging pent-up demand. In part, I also suspect that the lead time between booking and travel plays a role. Those big UK holiday packages opened well over a year ago, and I know many people lock them up early to take advantage of the bonus savings.
I’m somewhat surprised that Walt Disney World doesn’t offer 14-day tickets for certain domestic “whale” vacation packages. Seems like it’d be advantageous to get big spending guests staying at the Grand Floridian for 10 nights into the parks more often, keep them away from Universal, etc.
While less so recently, the UK pound sterling has been stronger against the US dollar than the EU euro. Every thing else being equal, that means US trips cost less with pounds than euros and *should* have been driving a divergence between UK and Eurozone trends. (Again, I see a recent change which should affect trends in trips six months in the future, I guess.)