Will a Fifth Park Be Built at Disney World?
Rumors and speculation are again flying about a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. I’ll make a not-so-bold prediction: Disney won’t build a 5th theme park in Florida any time soon. Want a bolder prediction? No one reading this will see a fifth gate at Walt Disney World in their lifetime. (Updated July 13, 2022.)
To be clear, we’re talking fifth theme park gate–none of that ‘water theme park’ nonsense. (And in any case, it seems like Disney is perfectly content operating only one water park in Orlando right now, so adding a third seems highly unlikely.) This is a topic we’ve touched upon previously (last time due to major land purchases by Disney around Central Florida), but felt it was worth revisiting for a few reasons.
We’ll start with the elephant in the room: Universal’s Epic Universe, the third theme park being built in Central Florida by Comcast. On recent earnings calls, that company’s executives have praised the success of their parks in their post-reopening recovery. This is a big reason why Epic Universe is full steam ahead, and slated to open by Summer 2025. Many fans want Walt Disney World to have an “answer” to Epic Universe, and the only thing that can really compete with a new theme park is a new theme park.
That absolutely will not happen. Even if Disney wanted to build a new theme park and announced one today, there is a 0.000% chance the company could have it open by Summer 2025. Disney is still in the process of cloning a roller coaster in an empty warehouse it announced 5 years ago and has been building for over 4 years.
From what I understand, an entire theme park is considerably more elaborate than even multiple empty warehouses. (Some of the warehouses would, presumably, be filled with things.) In other words, if TRON Lightcycle Run is a reliable gauge of the company’s construction pace, Disney could open a new theme park in approximately 2077 if construction began today. Perhaps that’s a bit hyperbolic…maybe 2055. 😉
That assumes that Disney wants to build another theme park in Central Florida right now, and that is absolutely not the case. In reality, Disney won’t have any official answer to Epic Universe. They won’t acknowledge the project as a threat or Universal as a bona fide competitor. When the Wizarding World of Harry Potter opened, Disney claimed that “a rising tide lifts all boats” — that a stronger Universal was beneficial to Disney because it attracted more people to Central Florida. That’s inarguably true to some extent, but it’s also spin.
Of course, Disney’s tune could change once Epic Universe opens and Universal starts siphoning vacation time or, more importantly, hotel stays away from Walt Disney World. That could prompt the company to get more aggressive after the fact and come up with an answer, but it still won’t be an entire theme park. Now, let’s delve into the why of that.
Again, we’ll start with considerations that are undoubtedly front-of-mind for Florida management. The big one right now is staffing shortages. This seems to come up in just about every other post here these days, and there’s a reason for that: it’s the root cause of many problems and why so much has not returned to normal. It’s the driver behind park reservations and virtually anything that’s still missing from the full Walt Disney World experience right now.
The reason the parks are not at full capacity is entirely driven by staffing shortages, which reduces the total number of guests the parks can accommodate. In a nutshell, if certain entertainment and experiences are missing or the parks are unable to operate for as many hours as normal, overall park capacity decreases. Wait times are longer even though overall attendance limits are (significantly) lower because more guests are consolidated into fewer options.
There’s a certain cynicism among fans that this is intentional, so Walt Disney World can reduce its labor and operational costs. This is patently false. It is accurate that Disney wants to right-size its workforce and optimize efficiency during normal times. That is not what’s presently occurring.
Turning paying customers away during a period of sky-high consumer spending–which is what is happening right now–is a far bigger hit to revenue than the minimal cost of more employees. Just look at the lack of After Hours hard ticket parties, EPCOT festival seminars, and other upcharges–all of which are expensive add-ons for guests–that have not been happening. Disney is literally leaving millions of dollars on the table without these offerings. Does anyone really believe that’s a deliberate choice?
There’s a number of root causes of the labor shortage itself. As you’re undoubtedly aware, this is occurring around the United States–but is particularly bad in Central Florida due to somewhat unique circumstances. While this will normalize to some degree as the economy cools and normalizes, it’ll again be exacerbated by Epic Universe and a slate of other high-profile hospitality industry projects on the horizon.
Frankly, I wonder where Universal is going to find enough frontline employees for Epic Universe. They undoubtedly have a plan as Comcast is a sophisticated business that would certainly be cognizant of the local labor pool. Regardless, it will be an issue–and some of the smaller players that have plans to open in Orlando in the next few years may have a difficult time.
Whether the local labor market (not to mention the housing market, which is already pricing hospitality industry workers out–that’s the reason why Disney is helping to build affordable housing) can sustain not just one, but two more parks, is an open question. Of course, Walt Disney World has the College Program and various other means of importing temporary workers from out of state–and that could certainly help provide the workforce necessary for a fifth gate–but thus far that has not been the case for their 4 gates in the last couple of years. Even with weekly job fairs and regular recruiting, Disney is still falling woefully short on staffing.
In reality, if Disney is going to allocate existing or additional employees to new developments, they’d probably prioritize timeshares and hotels over a theme park. There’s better ROI and less risk, and those are not nearly as resource-intensive. Personally, I think Disney is likely reticent to build new hotels in the near-term, but timeshares are full steam ahead.
Beyond that, there are not actually credible rumors of a fifth gate even being considered (let alone actively worked on) for Walt Disney World. What chatter does exist is wishful thinking by fans who see the existing four Walt Disney World theme parks drawing record crowds, and deducing that the solution is more parks. It’s not a bad idea, but that doesn’t make it a realistic one consistent with Disney’s approach in Florida.
What this wishful thinking fails to take into account is the cost of developing and building new theme parks versus existing ones, the state and trajectory of the global economy, and the vacation trends of potential Walt Disney World visitors. From our perspective, pretty much every reliable indicator is against Walt Disney World building new parks.
Let’s start with visitor patterns. The average American’s vacation is between 4 and 6 days long, depending upon the source consulted. More to the point, that average has been on the decline for the last couple of decades, and Americans are leaving a record number of vacation days on the table (there’s article after article about the shrinking American vacation).
With the duration of the average American vacation on the decline, adding more gates is a tough sell. After factoring in travel days, many Americans already don’t have enough time to experience all four parks plus Disney Springs or water parks plus whatever Universal’s parks might siphon away. This is an issue because it necessarily means that a new park would cannibalize attendance from the existing gates, at least among a good segment of guests.
Of course, this doesn’t take into account the visitors from Europe who each ‘holiday’ at Walt Disney World for approximately 97 days (slight exaggeration), and it also doesn’t account for the diehard American Disney fans reading this who go for 7-10 days every year.
As always, there are outliers–and those of you reading this who measure your annual time at Walt Disney World in weeks are exactly that. The average guest is simply not visiting for that long, and it’s important that we don’t confuse our own anecdotal experiences for the norm.
This relates to the theoretical fifth gate because the concept would need to fit within Walt Disney World’s existing structure as a vacation destination. Not in terms of theme, but in terms of time allocation. This is where all that blue sky fan daydreaming falls apart.
If the majority of visitors to Walt Disney World don’t have another park day to add, that fifth gate is a nonstarter. Heck, if even 30% of Walt Disney World visitors don’t have another potential park day, that’s a serious problem. This would mean that, for a large number of potential Walt Disney World visitors, the day to attend that theoretical 5th gate wouldn’t come from a beach day or be reallocated from another theme park in Orlando, it’d largely come at the expense of Walt Disney World’s existing parks.
Now, you might point to existing crowds in each of the four parks and say, “perfect.” From a guest perspective, there’s tremendous appeal in easing the burden on the existing parks, and decreasing attendance at each of them. I can promise you that Disney does not view things similarly. Decreased attendance at any of the existing parks, even if it meant higher attendance in aggregate, would be a negative. (Don’t believe them when they say the opposite–reducing attendance is not one of Disney’s actual goals.)
Assuming for the sake of argument that Disney does have an issue with current park crowd levels (they don’t), the easier and more cost-effective solution is the one we’ve been seeing over the last several years: expanding the existing parks. Walt Disney World is building out the capacity of its existing gates with attractions like Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, the Guardians of the Galaxy coaster, TRON Lightcycle Power Run, and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge.
While each of these additions is likely to induce more demand than it’ll add capacity (another topic for another day), this approach of expanding the footprint of existing parks is advantageous from Disney’s perspective because it keeps infrastructure costs lower. It also doesn’t require gambling big on a new, untried concept and having to throw more money at that in the future to boost its popularity.
With a new park comes new turnstiles, new backstage facilities, new roads, transportation hubs, and other infrastructure that already exists in support of the existing theme parks. These infrastructure expenses are not insignificant, and it’s difficult to justify their expenditures when the existing parks can be built-out without incurring all of these same costs.
That is to say nothing of labor costs, which would also be higher with a new gate versus an existing gate with added capacity. Simply put, expanding the existing parks is the conservative, cost-effective, and low-risk approach.
Let’s say you still disagree with our assessment for some reason, and think Walt Disney World leadership views a fifth gate as a “good idea” that’s on the horizon. Timing-wise, when do you see Walt Disney World building another theme park?
Personally, I find it difficult to look at recent decisions and conclude, “this is leadership with a grand vision!” To the contrary, they seem content milking what already exists, attempting tricks to increase per guest spending, while boasting about things like yield management rather than their creative vision. In order to bet big on a fifth gate (or anything ambitious) they need to have the zeal and guts to expand. Think back to the biggest Walt Disney World news of the last couple years…does any of that scream “creative vision and ambition” to you?
Beyond that, there are signs of a looming recession or slowdown, declines in consumer confidence, and the travel segment is likely to see pent-up demand fizzle out in the coming months. Of course, whatever is announced today would open in a different environment–maybe debuting during an economic expansion or recovery years from now. Still, building during a downturn requires vision and boldness.
From my perspective, the “best case” scenario for Disney’s boldness right now is seeing the resilience of its theme parks in the last couple of years while also realizing that direct-to-consumer streaming services may not be the robust business model they once thought. In such a scenario, the company’s leaders could feel emboldened to invest in Walt Disney World. Even then, those budgets will be pointed at expanding capacity in existing parks.
As for a 5th park at Walt Disney World sometime beyond that in the long-term, anything is possible. I know that I made the “not in our lifetimes” prediction at the beginning of the post, but that was more for the sake of a bombastic prediction. I personally don’t think that I will ever see a fifth gate, but I’ve been wrong plenty of times before.
Plus, it seems that whenever a prognostication exceeds a 5 year horizon, people tend to forget about it. I’ve seen other Disney commentators share their own “rumors” with regard to fifth gates years ago that should have come to fruition by now and no one has called them on it, so it felt like a safe thing to say. 😉
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Your Thoughts
Do you think a fifth gate is on the horizon at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with our reasons as to why one is unlikely in the foreseeable future? Any other thoughts or commentary to add? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Yeah I suspect we will see expansions in Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom before there is a new park. I do think we will see a Marvel land in Hollywood Studios in the next ten years for one. Yes Universal has the rights but better to use them as leverage now when they have Disney over a barrel and can get a lot more in return.
Loved this whole article!
Totally agree with you but it’s fun to speculate and think on it.
Though I cracked up laughing at this: “Think back to the biggest Walt Disney World news of the last couple years…does any of that scream “creative vision and ambition” to you?”- you’re not wrong thanks for being entertaining but also thoughtful and the voice of reason
That’s exactly the problem with ruining Splash for a half-assed overlay. They should be adding a whole new land based on the bayou and Nawlins cultures instead of ruining the ride and more so, the theming of the entire area. MK could desperately use some newer, better eateries. A signature place with classic Creole food, and regular table-service, and a little cafe or two more like you find around Jackson Square. And a NEW attraction to go over Tiana’s story (connected to the restaurant, naturally). They could really outshine that tiny little corner of DL!
Find a new place to build any new parks. With Paris and Tokyo showing that inclement weather can be overcome, I would love for them to build something between the two coasts. I think St. Louis was once considered for a site but no beer at the parks didn’t fly with Budweiser.
While I too would love to see a 5th gate, just because, what could it POSSIBLY be that wouldn’t be insanely niche?
The “Villains” park?
“Dark Kingdom”?
“The lost attractions park”?
Assuming a previous poster’s numbers are correct—none of those ideas seem to me like a 24 BILLION dollar idea. Expanding existing gates vs. the massive infrastructure involved in a 5th property just makes SO MUCH more financial sense, even to a fanboy like me.
Besides—it would be truly unprecedented. Correct me if I’m wrong, but no property even has 4 gated parks, never mind 5.
Universal’s third is exciting for sure, but they are stepping into strange new ground. There’s a whole lot of other development separating their existing complex from the new site.
And Tom—your assertion that Comcast is somehow a competent organization, in my experience, is vastly overblown. Their fortunes have been made via a virtual monopoly.
Time will tell, of course.
Very interesting think-piece at any rate.
“Their fortunes have been made via a virtual monopoly.”
I think that’s exactly why Comcast has decided to go all in on the theme park resort business, and why you can’t write them off; *because* of their experience making a fortune when they have only one competitor.
Oh yes, Comcast is the classic evil monopoly. Man, I hated having to pay them for cable and internet in several places I lived… Overpriced and under-serviced…
An IP park, like Epic Universe. Disney’s Hollywood Studios (nee Disney-MGM Studios) was “inspired by” the then-planned Universal Studios Orlando, Disney’s Animal Kingdom was “inspired by” Busch Gardens Tampa. It could be the same with an IP park.
An IP park with four immersive lands and a hub to start, as at Epic Universe: Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel (though that’s limited because of the license), and some other IP or concept (villains, or action/adventure with Pirates and Indiana Jones, etc.). Dump all the rides of the respective IPs from other parks that aren’t at Walt Disney World yet (e.g., Cars’s Radiator Springs Racers) into their respective lands. The problem is that they’ll have to come up with original rides to fill out the rest, which costs serious money.
The IP park is to the 2020s what the studio park was to the 1990s. Disney isn’t going to build something truly expensive and innovative like DisneySea in the United States, where it lacks a partner with deep pockets, like OLC in Japan and SSG in China, that can shoulder all/most of the R&D and construction costs.
That said, I don’t think Disney will build anything significant (i.e., a new “minor theme park” (e.g., a new water park) or a new “major theme park” (e.g., the four they already have)) in the United States this century even. (Yes, “minor theme park” and “major theme park” are terms Disney itself uses in its internal documents.)
The company is too debt-ridden and sclerotic. They’re focused on trying to hit “transformative” home runs with money pits like Disney Plus (“We’re a tech company! Value our shares like those of Netflix!”); they don’t care about building more assets that give far more reliable, steady single-digit percentage returns (the parks).
They might build a third park at Disneyland Paris Resort, because they’re contractually obligated to, but that deadline keeps getting extended, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s extended beyond 2100 at some point (it’s currently at 2036). When they do build it, it’ll just be a cheap rehash of something like Epcot (as they did with Walt Disney Studios at the Paris resort).
A second gate at Shanghai Disney Resort before 2050 is far more likely than Disney building a new park anywhere else. Its local partner SSG has deep pockets.
Circa 1960, North Carolina had a busy manufacturing economy but with such low wages that it was as poor as Mississippi. Thanks to some major changes (an early attempt at encouraging research and development and brash new reels for banks, it was escaping the rut be 1970 and has gone middle income.
Orlando, pre-covid, was stuck with the lowest wages and salaries in the US , with competition from other Florida urban areas and Las Vegas. Housing, while low cost by national standards, was becoming unaffordable to ordinary residents. The urban area was growing fast, and tech employers were starting up, and it was certainly growing as a distribution center (Amazon is now producing print to order books near the airport). But now housing costs are rising fast and I wonder whether growth has stalled. I wonder how Universal will staff Epic Universe. They and Disney have already raised wages, so the low wage trap might be fading.
On the side, the Disney Vero Beach resort still has a normal hotel website, but rooms have been unavailable to non Vacation Club members for a long time. Part of it may be renovations. Anyway, the situation suggests that time shares may be booming.
What I can’t seem to wrap my head around is Disney keeps building or adding on DVC units. I would assume most people who stay would do so for 5 or more days. That is quite a bit of people, families that need services. If Disney is short of staff in parks and DVC/hotels why continue building all these units? Unless it’s just about money. Which it probably is. But, that is just making it very difficult to enjoy the parks. It’s very difficult to enter any park and just look around and take in the glory of the parks. Most of the time you are just following a crowd to your next ride line or show line. Building more rooms of any type is only going to make this worse. It would seem another park would help. Especially if they insist on building so many more rooms. The parks can only absorb so much. Look back at the late 90’s and early 2000’s. How many Hotels and DVC units were there? There were 4 parks. Then, from mid 2000’s to now, how many hotel/DVC are there? Still 4 parks. While they have added some rides, they have also taken away so much. Especially crowd absorbing rides and shows. It would be nice to get some analysis and your thoughts.
Here’s a question: there are *SO* many people in central Florida. People are moving here in droves. It feels like there *should* be plenty of workforce. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they jobs they are having trouble staffing are also those jobs which are usually considered harder and less desirable. If Disney REALLY wanted to fill those positions and get back to normal operating capacity, wouldn’t the solution just be to raise the wages for those positions and pay them more? Make those positions more desirable by compensating the workers accordingly, right? I know that’s a somewhat simplistic viewpoint, but so many of your posts talk about how much money Disney is leaving on the table because if their staffing woes. They could capitalize on all that available spending by using some of that money to pay what it costs to fully staff those roles.
I don’t have any data on this, just our anecdotal experience from living in the area, but I think the bulk of people moving to Central Florida already have jobs and are either relocating to offices that have opened in the area or are working remotely. There are some condos and apartments, but the bulk of what’s being built right now is single family housing–and those developments that are popping up have starting prices ranging from ~$300k to $800k. By and large, I don’t think there’s a way to attract those people to guest-racing jobs at WDW–and it’s not just a matter of wages.
Disney’s best options are growing the College and International Programs, and hoping immigration returns to normal levels.
Tom, I was in the DCP at WDW in 1992, and it was awesome. I’m in the alumni association, and in groups for current participants. It’s gotten crazy even for them, with some very strict requirements and costs that we didn’t have back then. We paid $59 a week for a 3 bedroom with 6 people living in it and made I think $3.35 an hour. It seemed unbearable but I usually had money to do things and do side trips. I had a great time for the eight months I was there, driving submarines for Captain Nemo. Hard to believe a seat form one of the subs sold on Ebay a couple weeks ago for $1250! I’d like to have the porthole the same seller has, but $2500 buys a LOT of beers and several WDW trips, so that’s not going to happen. And I guess I may be part of the reason for some of the rules they have now… We had rules to follow, but nothing like these days. Now they have to pay fees just to apply! And all kinds of craziness, and apartment rent is obscene.
No, not happening. Disney streaming is still hemorrhaging money, and they have tons of debt from the Fox acquisition. There is no way with these two drags, that there is money allocated for a fifth park. It also would only cannibalize Disney’s existing customer park days, not augment them, as you eloquently argued.
Totally.
Didn’t delve into that here since it feels it a bit in the weeds, but borrowing costs have also skyrocketed (and will continue, if the Fed stays the course) making it less likely that Disney takes on more debt to fund major construction, acquisitions, or anything else in the near term.
I appreciate this adding to the discussion because everyone assumes Disney is flush with cash but don’t consider the entirety of the financials. Everyone likes empty parks for themselves but empty parks are scary. It means it’s not in demand and things that aren’t in demand tend to go downhill fast. I love local to Six Flags over GA and 20 years ago it was crazy busy, 3 hour lines, teens everywhere and now you can walk on the coasters daily. But much of it is closed due to low staffing. Anyway two different topics but those of us in the hospitality industry know that you want those crowds coming daily and anything else is a bad sign. I’m very skeptical how universal will staff an entire theme park. At this point I think building service based business in Orlando needs to cool down before there’s literally no one left to work anywhere. You can have a great idea for a business, but if you have no employees, then what’s the point? Universal better come up with a college program!
Tom… you’re correct no 5th gate for us. With the purchase of Fox and implementation of Disney+, Disney’s only plan is to raise cash flow and pay down it $77B plus investment. A 5th gate would be in the $25B price range, less costly to upgrade existing parks, more ROI. Heck Disney hasn’t reinstated dividends on its stock and most likely won’t for 3 years, if that. Disney will nickel and dime us to death and crowds will continue to come willing to spend hard earned monies.
As for Epic Universe, we are eager for a final confirmation on How to Train Your Dragon section. If Berk is done right, it would pull us from Disney more than anything else. Currently the franchise is oddly absent from Universal parks – we’ve barely seen any merch for what I consider Dreamworks best franchise.
Magic Kingdom 1971
Epcot 1982 (11 Years)
Hollywood Studios 1989 (7 years)
Animal Kingdom 1998 (9 years)
(24 years)
Long overdue for a fifth gate.
Discovery Island is 11 acres of waisted land. Can u just imagine “Tortuga” Ship in the water, canons to fire, village to plunder, treasure to find, adventure!!!! “Yo Ho altogether hoist the colors high” Pirate Island
Tom,
Speaking of rumors fueled by wishful thinking, any thoughts on the “Peoplemover returning to DL” rumor? I would be ecstatic, but it seems so unlikely.
That’s a rumor that I really WANT to believe…but I do not believe. (I haven’t personally heard anything.)
Here’s an idea that won’t happen: a new West coast Disney park, perhaps Northern CA, which incorporates the current drive for real estate/gated communities/timeshares and perhaps residential communities surrounding the park as a central feature. Close to existing tourist sites and benefitting from a huge Labour pool.
What’s unmentioned in the above- and I understand the rather heated comments it derives- is politically at the moment Florida is probably not a desirable investment situation whereas a domestically focused CA park can still mop up huge numbers without eating into Anaheim which if anything substantially lacks capacity.
While I’d rather not touch the political side of that, I do think both California and Florida have desirable and undesirable aspects–each in their own ways. I doubt either would be at the top or bottom of a list for new business investment. The reality, though, is that Disney already has a presence in both states.
Interesting timing, as I just saw this today: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/north-carolina-is-no-1-in-americas-top-states-for-business.html
Very interesting. The infrastructure demands on any new park are the most convincing to me that you are likely correct. It makes far more sense financially for Disney to incrementally increase the size and capacity of existing theme parks (a la Pandora or New Fantasyland) or repurpose or add new ‘vibrancy’ to existing areas that are unpopular or unused (a la Galaxy’s Edge or Cosmic Rewind). In fact, it seems to me just as likely that is what Universal would do too if it was an option, they are just too hemmed in to do that, so a new theme park only makes sense when you have to expand in a new location anyway.
Ultimately, much as we can point to all the “little things” that have gone by the way-side in the last two years (and nickel and diming, etc), it is probably useful to have some longer perspective too. I have only been going with any regularity in the last 12 years. When we started going, Toy Story Mania, Soarin’, Expedition Everest and even Dumbo (DUMBO!) were among the star “how do you beat the intolerable line-up” attractions. All of those things are still there, still awesome (depending on your demographic of course), and none of them require even a second thought to ride. And all have been displaced by multiple new attractions and lands within each of those theme parks that are now the “stars”. Seems to me there has been tremendous growth of WDW in the last decade or so. I don’t like the perception I have that the Accountants and Data geniuses have completely taken over in the last few years to the detriment of creative vision or the “little things” either. But we are seeing things through a very narrow short term window, which includes an ongoing recovery from a once in a century global disaster. There is still a LOT to love about WDW, and that includes a lot of things like above that are now taken for granted and even afterthoughts. I’m in Canada. My kids are lucky enough to be able to go with some regularity, but not so often they don’t still love it unreservedly. And they have plenty friends and classmates who will only go once, or dream of it, and they (and their parents) are still DAZZLED. The accountants may be subtracting some pixie dust, but there is still an incredible amount of magic there, we’re just not always looking in the right places or through the right eyes.
Your second paragraph is spot on. If you compare what was added in the most recent decade to the one before that, it’s a night and day difference. Following the Great Recession (after a long period of stagnation), Disney started investing significantly in the parks, and we’re still seeing the fruits of that.
I do worry that the decade to come will resemble ~2001 to 2011 more than the last 10 years, but there’s little denying that a lot of impressive/popular things have been added during that time. Some dubious decisions have also been made, but much of that can be undone.
Thanks. I worry about that too, but the longer perspective (much longer than the 12 years I refer to) shows plenty o’ dubious decisions right back to Walt himself. There have always been hits and misses. It’s a vacation. It only makes sense to focus on what they get right, and ignore what they don’t, and enjoy the moment. When it happens there isn’t going to be any or enough enjoyable moments, I will not be “worrying” even slightly; I’ll just got Hawaii or to the mountains instead. Only professional bloggers and professional theme park attenders have any cause to “worry”. I appreciate what you you, since it both adds to my enjoyment before going, and enables me to enjoy more when I do, so THANKS FOR WORRYING FOR ME! Really truly.
But for myself (and likely most of your readers), the only Disney rule that makes any kind of sense is “What, me worry?”
Thanks again.
The problem with a 5th gate is that Disney has never really completed their 2nd through 4th gates..
Outside of Magic Kingdom, none of the other parks are really fully complete.
Epcot — Sure, you can fill a day strolling through Festivals, or simply strolling through World Showcase. But they probably have few attractions than they had 30 years ago… It’s still a couple attractions short of being a true standalone gate.
Animal Kingdom — half day park, these days. Depending on age and interest level of the guests, there may only be a small handful of desirable attractions.
DHS — It’s added the most, yet still doesn’t have enough to handle its daily attendance. Too many highly desirable attractions that are limited capacity and limited duration. (Such as the 4 minute Runaway Railroad replacing the 17 minute great movie ride.. the loss of the 20-30 minute Backstage Tour). The shows that can theoretically swallow lots of people are old. (How many times can you sit through BATB and the Indy stunt show).
If you combined Animal Kingdom, DHS and Epcot, you would have one complete gate.
Finish the gates you have…
Like Hollywood Studios Epcot’s also has a serious drop in attraction duration, so that what was once a two-day park is now one, depending on operating hours. (I don’t know how the loss of pavillions with major attractions and minor exhibits/attractions has impacted overall time, because I am just so biased in favor of pavillions I can’t remember how many people were with me watching the shows in the Transcenter.)
Agree with moving to two-day parks.
I think you are focusing too much on rides and attractions. Disney parks are about theming and creating magic, that is why such a big demographic goes to Disney parks contrary to Universal. True, I haven’t been to universal in a while but I remember both parks (island of adventure and universal) mostly empty with no ambiance. The theming wasn’t great either. At Disney, the parks were full of people of all ages, from 7 to 77, because it has something for everyone. I can easily spend 2 full days strolling around animal kingdom admiring all the details of this park, it’s animals, great food and ride, the same with Epcot.
While I suspect Epic Universe will pull a significant number of guests to Universal (some new, some from Disney), I don’t think Disney will respond with a fifth gate for at least 5 years, if not longer. Disney is posturing itself as a sort of Apple in the park/resort/cruise world, which means Universal is a bit of a Microsoft in that way. Universal will thrive from slightly lower prices with larger crowds as Disney will try to thrive from higher prices with lower crowds. I see them as a sort of Apple/Microsoft situation and I think we’ve seen both of those strategies work well in the tech space, so I suspect they can work well in the park/resort/cruise space too.
This is a good comparison and it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out. I think you might be right, but I also think the two appeal to slightly different demographics–so there might be space for both at the top, so to speak.
However, I also doubt that this is how Universal envisions itself. If Epic Universe is a blockbuster park with huge drawing power, I’d fully expect Universal to price accordingly–raising prices at its parks and hotels.
I hope not, Apple products suck! And in many, many ways, so do Microshaft’s! It would be better for Disney to be more like Tesla (like they used to be) and take existing tech, improve on it, and bring a good product that excites more than just fanboys.
Your projection of 2077 or even 2055 is a bit harsh: though I admit funny.
Your notion that frontline labor is a barrier to building a Fifth Gate does not make sense to me. How can you use today’s situation to predict labor markets in 2055 or even 2026 for that matter? Any company that can plan and build a theme park should be able to plan and build a staff to operate it. Maybe you are saying that Disney is not longer sufficiently competent here?
Your comments that strategically it makes more sense for Disney to expand its current parks instead of building a Fifth Gate sounds right to me to maximize its current target markets.
However, let me suggest that a whole new opportunity may exist for Disney with a Fifth Gate. Disney is testing the appeal of LARPing with its Galactic Starcruiser. Creating LARP lands in Fifth Gate could draw a whole new crowd to Disney World, in addition to strengthening its current attraction to teenagers and young adults. I am sure Disney is beginning to realize that Gaming is now bigger than TV and Movies, and will want to have expansion strategy to account for this in their efforts to maintain their strategic positioning in entertainment. LARP lands will connect Movies and new Games with the Parks. This could be a strategic fit while leapfrogging Universal with something completely new.
Obviously, current labor market circumstances are not predictive of the situation in 2055.
However, it is pretty relevant in the next decade due to the relationship between labor and housing. Central Florida has attracted a lot of other industry while also being a top landing location for remote workers. This has driven the cost of housing up, pricing out hospitality workers in the process. If you look around the area right now, you’ll see plenty of options starting at $300,000 (and only going up from there), but almost nothing that’s affordable for theme park workers even under construction.
I didn’t think that you were actually predicting labor for 2055: I was just teasing back on your edgy humor towards Disney.
Agree on your points regarding cost of living in and around Orlando. That will be strategic issue for the Disney, Universal, and the Orlando area. Generally, I find that market mechanics tends to work this out over the long haul, but you could be right that this will be acute for a few more years yet. I am not local myself so cannot offer a fact based opinion on this. You certainly make an effort to think these things through, so I will take your word for it.
“Personally, I find it difficult to look at recent decisions and conclude, “this is leadership with a grand vision!” To the contrary, they seem content milking what already exists, attempting tricks to increase per guest spending, while boasting about things like yield management rather their creative vision.”
Tom, the above statement is spot on! I love Walt Disney World, although I feel it has lost some “magic” in recent years. I do not think another park is really even needed. They need to improve what they have and get the “magic” back. If they do that, Universal will not be a threat. I enjoyed Universal and I am looking forward to Epic Universe, but Walt Disney World has always been my favorite. Staying my favorite is not dependent on whether they build a new park or not. That will be influenced by other factors.
I agree. Universal does so many things as well or better than Disney, and I love visiting their parks/hotels, but one thing that they can’t compete with Disney on is Magic – and Disney would be wise to capitalize on this. Keep the same basic size and focus on the feel…the atmosphere…the Magic. Growth for growth’s sake is the mindset of a cancer cell.
Is “97 days” a typo? I can’t imagine ANYONE spending that much time at Disney.
I agree, for the type of theme parks that Disney delivers. However, if they were to create a thrill-focused park that is less about storyline and more about speed, it would instantly be a huge attraction. Bigger and more intense rides would be a welcomed addition.