Is There an Off-Season at Disney World?
For ages, people have been saying, “there’s no off-season at Walt Disney World anymore.” It’s true that almost every year for just under a decade, annual attendance has increased. In most cases, this has been 1% to 5% bumps (per TEA reports), but it’s still noticeable–especially in aggregate. (Last updated February 4, 2019.)
During our visits to Walt Disney World last January and February, we were shocked by the crowds. Data showed that wait times were up over 20% year over year, and the parks felt even more crowded than that due to reduced capacity on attractions and shorter operating hours.
Wait times actually decreased by modest amounts in the second half of the year, which is especially noteworthy because Magic Kingdom operating hours also decreased, with fewer early openings and late closings (the times of day most likely to have shorter wait times. That’s the good news–the bad news is that wait times were once again elevated in January 2019.
In the original incarnation of this post, we speculated that last year’s spike was due to a range of factors, from shifting school schedules to James Cameron to the economy and consumer confidence. In our subsequent post, Explaining Increased Crowds at Walt Disney World, we offered Disney’s manipulation of ride capacity as the most likely scenario.
It would appear that Walt Disney World is up to these same games again in 2019, as average wait times were frequently higher in January than they were last October, November, or December. Given that January used to be a sleepy time of year that we referred to as the holiday hangover, this is quite the change.
In addition to ride capacity, Walt Disney World has mastered the art of manipulating crowds, incentivizing guests to travel during what used to be the off-season. Perhaps the biggest exemplar of this is the Walt Disney World Marathon, and we should note that it occurred almost a full week later than normal in January 2019, which undoubtedly had a more prolonged impact on crowds.
This is nothing new–Disney has been effectively manipulating crowds for (at least) the last 5 years, refining its approach along the way. This would explain October and early December gradually becoming more crowded over the course of several years, but not the surge that has been evident more recently.
When analyzing crowds of today, it’s also worthwhile to look at past trends, particularly in tandem with the economy. During the global financial crisis, attendance at Walt Disney World held relatively flat. This was an impressive feat during the Great Recession, and led to a view of the parks as recession-proof. (In part, this led to the investments we are now seeing–Parks & Resorts was viewed as a stable and reliable business unit.)
Since the economic recovery began, attendance at Walt Disney World has soared. Magic Kingdom’s attendance numbers have climbed by over 3 million annual guests during that time, per TEA reports. This is in spite of pretty steep ticket and hotel price increases, neither of which have done much to slow attendance growth.
This is one big reason why “there’s no such thing as off-season at Walt Disney World” has become such a popular refrain. Not only were crowds significantly lower during the Great Recession, but operating hours were actually longer. (Remember when Evening Extra Magic Hours used to be 3 hours?!)
This all brings us back to the titular question: is there an off-season at Walt Disney World? Last year, we answered that there is not much of an ‘off-season’ in traditional parlance. That seems to be true thus far in early 2019, but there are signs that there’s still an off-season.
For starters, last fall was particularly slow, leading us to write another article, “All Quiet on the Crowds at Disney World Front.” We’d expect that trend to continue in 2019, especially as many guests are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens.
While we are anticipating crowds to be bonkers once Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens (likely in November or December 2019), one big silver lining is that in the months leading up to it, crowds should be pretty soft. We’re already seeing signs of this with Walt Disney World dumping hotel inventory on Priceline Express and releasing Free Dining several months early.
However, one unfortunate byproduct of Walt Disney World’s sometimes aggressive reductions of ride capacity is that it’s very difficult to predict what wait times will look like, even on days when attendance is markedly lower. If attractions have their capacity cut in half, that can have a huge impact on wait times–even on less busy days.
Due to this, aggressive discounts we’re likely to see this year, and the big unknown of when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will debut, I would have an increasing amount of skepticism when relying upon crowd calendars. I think things have been trending in this direction for a few years now, actually. Crowd calendars still have utility at a high level when considering over-arching trends–and when viewed in tandem with weather and seasonal events–but I would not put my full faith in day-by-day, park-by-park scores. Relying upon these for planning your travel dates is an invitation for disappointment.
This sentiment is not a shot at other planning resources. Our own Best and Worst Months to Visit Disney World post underscores the low crowds of January, dubbing them as “lethargic.” If what we experienced in January 2019 is lethargic, I fear what Easter or October will look like. In the few years since we first published that post, I’ve revised its rankings several times, as crowds continue to grow and shift. After waiting in line 20 minutes for the TTA PeopleMover in January and seeing several attractions with 2-3 hour waits on a regular basis, I am about ready to throw my hands up in defeat.
There was a time when the past was the best predictor of the future when it came to Walt Disney World crowds. Data from previous years coupled with park hours, school calendars, etc., could produce reliable forward-looking predictions about Walt Disney World crowds. I’m not sure to what extent that remains true. There seems to be far more fluidity and unpredictability to crowds now.
As for whether the concept of an off-season at Walt Disney World will truly be a thing of the past after Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, I don’t think so. What the robust economy giveth, the sluggish economy taketh. (Although not entirely, see the ‘recession-proof’ line above.) It’s hard to envision the economy continuing its current trajectory unabated, indefinitely. To the contrary, a ‘correction’ (to put it mildly) is due at some point in the medium-term.
When that happens, either attendance will fall or discounting will be more aggressive to maintain current numbers, or both. With each price increase and upcharge offering, Disney is gradually shifting its reputation to being a luxury travel destination. That’s a perception those who are firmly in the middle class–a demographic visiting now in strong numbers because they are doing well–will likely remember if when there’s a recession.
What I think is less likely is a return to the off-season crowd levels of the aughts and decades prior. Those days are gone, unlikely to return at any point in the foreseeable future. Walt Disney World has grown and changed considerably (a reality that’ll be further cemented with the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and the additions of the 50th Anniversary after that), as have the sophistication of the company’s marketing and crowd-spreading efforts.
For long-time Walt Disney World fans, this might all sound like bad news. Selfishly, we all want our visits to be relatively crowd-free. We also want the parks to continue growing and evolving (except when our own nostalgia is threatened). It’s all a delicate needle to thread. While I have some trepidation about what the future might hold in terms of crowdedness and pricing, I’m also incredibly optimistic about the money being invested into the parks right now, and how much better things will look for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. Frankly, if I had to choose between the lower crowd levels of a decade ago coupled with the creative stagnation of that era, or the all-around growth of today (and the near-future), I’ll choose the latter every single time. Absent of being able to pick the “right” dates on the calendar, there are still other ways to beat the crowds. At Walt Disney World just as in life, the times they are a-changing; you better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone.
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Your Thoughts
What has your experience been with crowds at Walt Disney World recently? Have you encountered ‘dead’ weeks in the last two years? Do you agree or disagree with our take on the off-season? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I’m convinced that the rise of pre-planning everything(be it FastPass+, advanced dining reservations, and the like) has created a less efficient vehicle for crowd flow overall. Instead of wanting to ride Attraction X or eat at Resaurant Z in the here and now on a whim, you pretty much need to have made that decision well in advance. In my opinion, this nudges crowds to move elsewhere, not naturally, but in a meandering, “Okay, we can’t do that now because it’s time prohibitive” way. It creates two parallel mindsets/realities for parkgoers. Two sets of crowds, marching to their own pre-planned itineraries, or lack thereof.
My family has been going to WDW, usually in late April / early May, for the past 7 years. Crowds have been moderate to moderate/heavy, but nothing that I would consider unbearable. To me, unbearable crowds are what happens on Main Street at night during the fireworks. That is the only time I have seen shoulder to shoulder, unbearable crowds. In those seven years, I have not seen a noticeable increase in crowd level. While I do think an actual off-season is a thing of the past, I truly believe there are times when the parks are less crowded.
You want less people and shorter wait times?? Go when kids are in school. Sadly for me, that too might be a thing of the past as my kids get older and the boss is less inclined to… (GASP!) take the kids out of school for vacation. Stoopid skool!
I’ve been going to WDW for forty-five years, and have just about seen it all. I don’t mean I’ve seen everything, I mean I’ve seen the ups and downs, the changes (good and bad), the busy times and the low crowd times.
I’ve listened to what guests have to say about their experience (again, good and bad), and I’ve heard a lot from people who say they’ll never go to Disney because they’re just a money hungry organization. There’s also the group who say they hate Disney only to change their minds once they marry and have a family. So, the fact that there seems to no longer be a low season doesn’t surprise me.
I’m not sure what this means for the future of Disney World, but I do know what it means for me. I’m not a young chickadee, and as such, do not do long lines. For anything. I don’t even do parks that much. Which leads me to believe it’s the up and coming young families who are packing the parks, and not the old timers.
For what it’s worth, I think as long as the economy stays the way it is, you will not see low crowds.
I appreciate your thoughts. Since we were down there at the same time as you for a gymnastics competition, my eyes were opened to the sports side of Disney. Gymnastics doesn’t draw like some sports, but there were 2700 girls competing over the weekend. That could easily by 10,000 extra people in WDW and many of those in the parks over the weekend. that’s not enough to swing the needle by itself, but combined with the other sports offerings (we saw field hockey also being played) it show one way Disney draws crowds in “down” seasons.
I know Josh/Easywdw shares your crowd calendar sentiment, as he stopped doing his some time ago.
Spot on post Tom. I went this past October and I was shocked about the long waits on usual short wait rides such as Pirates, Haunted Mansion, and Spaceship Earth. I usually skip booking FP+ for POTC or HM because they are usually a sure thing but now I have to going forward. Disney needs more high capacity dark rides as opposed to quick thrill rides. Hopefully they put a good show at the Main St theater when it opens to eat up some of the crowds. Now I think its stupid closing preexisting high capacity rides like Great Movie Ride at DHS when they shouldve built a brand new Mickey ride from scratch on another parcel of land.
We just got back last night from our trip (jan 20-27) and we had picked those dates based on many crowd calendars. I hadn’t been to Disney for at least 10 years and was shocked at the crowd sizes and was thinking that if this is the low season, I can’t imagine summer which is likely the time of year I’ll have to take my kids next time. We had a double stroller since our kids are 3 & 5 and navigating the crowds w/o hitting someone was so difficult and it made getting from attraction to attraction a huge pain (we didn’t want to be those people who used their stroller like a battering ram unlike the jerk who managed to cut the back of my dad’s leg and then continue to side check him with his stroller while going up the ramp to Cinderella’s castle during rope drop – fun stuff.) It made it so hard to take in all the little Disney details when you have to spend 90% of your time just watching the people around you. It made touring feel so rushed and like a competitive sport. Some of our group did Disney after Hours and I saw so many details I never saw during the day because it was just so crowded and again, we had a double stroller to contend with. We are thinking of heading back in 2020 and by the looks of the crowds at Pandora, I don’t think I’ll step foot in Star Wars land until my kids are much older and are real fans of the movies. At least I now feel better knowing that the crowds really were big and it wasn’t me just being unrealistic. Thanks for the post!
You might be surprised…my son went from not knowing what Star Wars was at 4.5 (we skipped DHS that trip) to a rabid fan at not quite seven. The highlight of our trip for him at 6.5 was jedi training. So…it might happen younger than you expect!
This year has been my first as an annual pass holder, and I’ve really enjoyed it, but I’m not anticipating re-upping after my coming trip in April. For one, I doubt I’ll be able to get the same value out of an annual pass next year as I have this year just because of the dates involved, and secondly, the rising crowds as you described here lower that value anyway.
My current thought is that I’ll still be getting up for rope drop to take advantage of lower crowds at those times, schedule my FastPasses between 9am and noon, maybe have lunch in the park, and then get the heck out of there for most of the rest of the day.
I’m looking for other things to do instead of being a part of those crowds. Maybe I’ll pay for a tour one day. Maybe I’ll do the new Star Wars VR at Disney Springs. Maybe I’ll spend more time at Disney Springs. A movie? Dinner? I might do more resort hopping on this trip, but honestly I’m not sure how much of what can be experienced at the resorts is available to guests from other resorts and how much of it isn’t just throwing more money at my vacation.
I really have my fingers crossed that my April vacation is a lot of fun, but I can easily see it as my last for a good long while. I’ve got an uneasy feeling about it.
Like others, we just got back from a January trip with what we perceived to be insane crowds.
Disney has finally merged technology (MagicBands and the update to their backend reservation system “LILO”) with pricing methodologies to ensure that not only can they keep themselves packed (my mother-in-law gets almost monthly invitations to “save up to 30%” when I get nothing because I visit regularly and she doesn’t), they can do so at an optimal price point.
You see this at an obvious level with the introduction of variable pricing and the removal of the “No Expiration” option to MYW tickets. It’s less obvious in the slight cost differences in souvenirs from Value to Moderate to Deluxe resorts – and the reason you no longer see prices on items, but colors – it’s easier to change one sign that tells you that things with a “Coral” tag are $21 at one location and $23 at another. But I think we’re going to start seeing it in greater and more pronounced ways, too (bigger price gaps as mentioned, plus bigger differences in the perks you get for staying at the different resorts – if I had to guess, Deluxe folks will get 4 or 5 FastPasses eventually, or will be able to take 2 Tier 1 attractions in their group of 3, while Value folks will stick at 3 and with the current 1 Tier 1 attraction in their initial group of 3).
Disney is going to be most people’s most direct interaction with the effects of Big Data.
Jeff, I agree with Disney targeting certain customers (although I think that technically LILO is the in-hotel reservation system and DREAMS is the advanced system). I have also noticed an increase in banner ads and email if I log into the Disney site to check something.
Regarding your comment about Deluxe vs Moderate vs Value, I think you are spot on. With the tram system going to moderates and values, the traditional, albeit informal, discriminator for deluxe hotels of better transportation options is being eroded. If they want people to continue to pay for deluxe accommodations they will need to add additional perks.
You’re right, Bill… it’s DREAMS (I had LILO in mind since I actually saw it this past trip).
You’re also right about the banner ads I’m seeing in Facebook and other places right after I go to a Disney.com-related site.
I think the gondola system is genius – it’ll be an interesting thing for most people to ride (at least once)… but it’s also SLOW compared to the monorail (and its throughput is probably less, too), which keeps people tied up in a non-ride.
I also had the chance to ride a Minnie Van this last trip – for $20+tip, I could go basically anywhere. The driver stated that there were 25 Vans currently, with plans for at least 100! I opined in another forum that I quickly saw the potential for Disney to do away with free on-property transportation… that EVERYTHING would have a cost. And with the introduction of MagicBands, they could also actually enforce the limitation of using Disney Transportation to those people actually staying on property – forcing everyone else to use the Minnie Vans or other means of getting around.
Heck, even if they just enforced it on the Monorails, things would get interesting in a hurry. And I could envision them limiting the Resort Monorails to those that were staying at one of the Monorail resorts (or had a confirmed dining reservation at one – like how they restrict parking)… and could limit the use of the Epcot line to those people with active MagicBands with available park ticket days on their MB’s (ie: if you were a non-hopper guest and and already visited the MK that day, you couldn’t go to Epcot via Monorail)… again forcing pay-for-transportation options.
The next few years are going to be really interesting.
Jeff, in the early days, transportation was limited to onsite guests, and you were required to show proof. I don’t think they can go back to that. I know they are adding more Minnie Vans, but I believe the county only allows Disney a certain amount of buses on the roads, which resulted in the introduction of gondolas. Also, there are the thousands of cast members who are able to park hop without tickets, and they should be entitled to free transportation even though they’re most likely not staying in a hotel.
The guests I’ve spoken with who have used Minnie Vans seem to be more than happy to pay $20 for the ease of going from destination to destination (especially hotel to hotel) in a minimum of time and a lot more comfort. Considering the cost of a Disney vacation, $20 +tip doesn’t seem like a lot to factor in.
Transportation has ALWAYS been limited to resort guests. They just haven’t had the means to enforce it for a long time. Magic Bands fix that.
And Minnie Vans are great as a limited-use method. But if you had to use them for every leg of transportation for a trip for 4 people, for one week, would add another $240+tip…which, while not excessive for those of us paying $5-6K/Trip, is going to be cost prohibitive for many.
Jeff, as far as I know, transportation is free to off site guests. While I may not know everything about Disney, I do know that. Also, I don’t expect one would use Minnie Vans for their entire trip. But they are especially useful for a quick ride back to your hotel late at night when one has a very tired family and doesn’t want to wait for buses or risk not getting a seat.
They are also useful for dinner reservations when going from hotel to hotel. It’s not really an extravagance when one considers the price of a room in a deluxe hotel and the time saved. If one can afford a deluxe hotel, one most likely can afford Minnie Vans. They may not be for everyone or every pocketbook, but they certainly are popular.
They’re not enforcing their own stated policy.
https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/planning-guides/in-depth-advice/resort-transportation/
See the very first sentence.
That doesn’t mean that they can’t or won’t at some future time. I’ve always just assumed they weren’t because of the hassle of doing so coupled with the PR difficulties denying boarding will bring. But once usage exceeds capacity, which I would say is close now, they’re going to have to do something.
I also agree that $20 isn’t a lot for a Deluxe guest. I believe I’ve already said as much. But it’s going to stretch a budget for a Value guest. And without included transportation, Disney is also taking AWAY a reason to stay on property (because, let’s be frank, EMH’s aren’t enough, especially morning ones when they don’t have the full park open).
Jeff, on the Disney site, under ‘free transportation – FAQ it states even if you’re not staying at a Disney hotel, you may use their free transportation. You can leave your car in any Disney theme park lot and use their free transportation.
With admission prices as high as they are, I don’t think requiring offsite guests to also pay extra for onsite transportation would go over so well. Also, their hotel restaurants and merchandising would probably take a financial hit. Plus it’s bad PR. My guess is offering both free and paid transportation is a good solution for Disney.
Barbara… I’m not sure where you’re looking. The link I sent is the Transportation link and it’s pretty clear.
That said, I AGREE with you that it would be a PR problem, to some degree. But, like with any change in policy, only the people who come frequently enough to know what USED to be the policy are going to complain. And those that come that frequently are probably staying on property and won’t care.
The one exception to this is going to be FL residents. But then again, if everything is MB-enabled, they could easily code FL resident passes with the capability to use the transportation.
I don’t think it’s going to affect their merchandise sales at all. Now that you can buy anything from nearly anywhere with the Shop Parks app (and with free parking at Disney Springs, which gives you access to WOD), you can shop without paying for transportation. Nor do I think their restaurants are going to take a hit, as they allow for free onsite parking for restaurant reservations today.
But if you’re a day park visitor only, and you park at the TTC to go to the MK, I could REALLY see a bit of a benefit to resort guests who can use the Monorail vs day visitors who, if they wanted to park hop, would need to move their cars.
What we’re really talking about is the slow remonetization of everything in the WDW Resort System. And if Disney is adept at anything, it’s extracting the greatest amount of money from your wallet as they can. So if they sense that people are willing to pay for transportation, don’t expect it to stay free for long.
We were there Dec 30th to Jan 5th and it was the most crowded trip we have ever taken with 18+ trips in 15 years (and the coldest!). Jan 4th in AK was absolutely insane! For us, it was a combination of lower DVC prices in Jan and the kids not going back until Jan 8th. I think many schools were on the same schedule. We also took advantage of the DVC Annual Pass discount, so that could be fueling some of this as well.
Thanks for your insights. We have been wanting to plan a trip as we haven’t been in over 3 years, but with our oldest going into 7th grade next year, it’s getting harder to pull the kids out of school to go when it’s less crowded. Your article will help me worry less about having to go when they are out of school anyway, since it’s crowded all the time!
We went in late July/early August 2017 because it is too hard to pull my kids out of school now and vacation weeks are insane (in terms of both airfare and crowds). It was hot and it was rainy, but overall I felt the parks were less crowded than they had been when I visited in March or April of the three previous years. Advance planning for dining reservations and Fast Passes definitely helped us navigate what crowds there were.
Tom, thanks for the insight in your post. We just got back from Disney yesterday after a week long stay. We were stunned at the crowds and wait times and had only chosen this past week because we thought waits would be low. All the big rides were always 60-200 minute waits. Even basics like Haunted Mansion we’re 55 minutes and Small World 30 in the middle of the week. My kids dissapointed that they didn’t get in as many of their favorites this trip. In fact we had way better wait times and weather the week leading into Easter last year. We’ve visited around 15 times in the last ten years at all times of the year. I had also wanted to see the festival of the arts and that too, was way more crowded than I anticipated especially for weekday afternoon and evening. I agree that some difference from crowd predictions is expected but to go from almost every crowd calander out there saying “light” to the reality that every day would be “heavy” (just one step down from Christmas break) is a huge surprise. I won’t take them out of school again. I’ve learned my lesson. There’s really no gain. Better to just come the time of year you like best!
Great insight!
I grew up going to Disney World. I can remember 15 years ago, it seemed I was the only family ever going to Disney World! At 33 years old, it seems more and more people are going to Disney World than ever before.
Is it the economy? I’m not so sure. Perhaps more and more young parents are taking their kids to Disney because they didn’t have the same opportunity as kids? No clue!
I do know that a trip to Disney World is more expensive than ever before. I really hope Disney doesn’t continue to push prices to only the wealthy.
However, even as a middle classer here, my family and I will continue to go to Disney every year. Disney knows that so they can continue to raise prices with a clear conscience.
As far as off Season goes, the best time I’ve been in terms of low crowds was the middle of September. Crowds were virtually non-existent. Only downside was the seasonal rain.
This is an insightful article, Tom! We were at WDW over Christmas last month, a 3-generation family of 7. Though it was noticeably inundated with crowds at every park as Christmastime always is, with smart planning far in advance (which also allowed for an extended budget this trip,) we were able to weave through the crowded parks with little to no wait times and a fairly limited amount of frustration. We waited longer for quick service food and bathroom lines than we did attractions! Fast Pass Plus, when used to it’s fullest can be quite amazing, and the MK Ultimate Classics Tour was a HUGE time-saver and awesome for the 2 children in our party who were visiting for the first time. Taking advantage of Disney’s little Disney hidden treasures throughout the parks that novice travelers no nothing of are also ways to avoid lines and still have fun at Disney. This last trip was the most crowded it’s ever been during one of our visits (about 8 trips over the past decade) and it was the best time we’ve had in 10 years! Really looking forward to the 50th anniversary!
We have gone the week after Thanksgiving in 14, 16, and 2017, and it has gotten progressively more crowded. This last visit was just me and the wife, if it was the gang, grandkids, like 2014 it would have been a disaster, in that, not much would have gotten accomplished! The only tier-1 rides we did this past visit were fast pass, the waits everywhere else were prohibitive. I won’t stand in line for more than 20 or 30 minutes tops! I Just don’t like crowds, am I going back? I’d like to think so, but we’ll see!
The “best” time I ever had at Disney World in relation to crowds was for a terrible reason (which is why I put “best” in quotes): I was there in January 2002, when travel anywhere was still at historic lows after the events of 9/11. It’s the closest I’ve ever seen WDW to being a literal ghost town. It was also the first time I’d traveled in January, although I’d been visiting WDW regularly since the 80s in other months, and I think that it punched a subconscious expectation into my brain about what January trips would be like, however much rational thought might remind me it was exceptional.
January’s been my travel month for WDW ever since (my birthday is then) and somehow I keep being surprised every time by the size of the crowds: but never more so than this year’s trip, which I just got back from. It really did seem like a particularly massive bump this time around. I wish I could believe it was only a bump and would subside! But as you point out in the article, all the trend lines seem to point in the same direction.
I wonder, if this continues (especially if it proves a robust trend through whenever the next economic downturn comes) if Disney might look at a 3rd US park? Not a fifth gate at WDW but a “Disneyland ___” somewhere in the (geographic) middle of the country. Might US population and vacation habits have reached a point where that could be sustained? A very remote possibility, I’m sure, but if Disney wants to increase total visits to Disney parks in the US, it would probably boost capacity more than trying to crowd more people into already-full-occupancy Orlando.
WDW is nowhere near physical capacity. They have developed about 1/3rd of their total land mass, have set aside 1/3rd for natural habitat, and thus still have 1/3rd left.
In addition, there’s no reason to segment their workforce or infrastructure by a third US location. The benefits they get from the Reedy Creek Improvement District structure alone would stop most other plans, not to mention the hoops they jumped through to acquire the amount of land in Florida at the price they got. Lastly, the weather was/is a key driver to Orlando’s selection. There just aren’t that many places with the right mix.
I was talking about hotel occupancy, not the fraction of land used. I consider it unlikely that Disney opens a third US park (or a 5th gate at WDW), but not beyond the bounds of possibility. There are places in the US with the right weather and a local government likely to be at least as favorable as Orlando & Florida were about creating Reedy Creek (for example, Arlington, TX, though I surely hope that’s NOT on anyone’s radar: it’s close to me and it would kill all the specialness if there was a Disney park so close).
Anyway, it’s all just idle speculation.
Tom, I have noticed the same thing over the past few years and I agree with all your observations and would add two. First, I’ve had a number of conversations with people who were willing to pull their kids out of school to take advantage of the discounts that are out there. While this has undoubtedly been done in the past, several of these people mentioned the improved economy and their feeling that “the kids are not really missing much” – perhaps a sad commentary on public education. Second, and I think a bigger factor, is the increase in the number of DVC properties. As these require payment regardless of whether you visit WDW or not, I think there is a feeling that “we’ve already paid for it, we might as well go”. I can’t put a number on it, but the increased room capacity from DVC is significant.
Thank you, Tom, now I’m thoroughly depressed! 😉
We’re planning a trip for the 2nd week of April, when crowd calendars say we should expect medium-sized crowds. I have my fingers crossed and a good game plan (I think), but now I’m a little nervous. I guess we’ll have see.
Interesting analysis, regardless.
Us that week, too. For me, any day at Disney is better than a day at home. I’m so blessed to be able to go, I will take it as it comes. We have an awesome planner, who sees to it that we get the most out of our time we can.
If the crowds keep increasing like this, is it time to spread the love to a fifth gate? It’s time to give the financial side of Disney it’s own park. Accounting dark rides, maybe rides with some cost and risk analysis.
But seriously though fifth gate announced in the next 7 years.
Joking aside, I don’t see a fifth gate happening anytime soon. If Disney wants to absorb crowds better, it’s far easier and cheaper to expand the existing parks. The savings on infrastructure alone is significant.
The rationale for a fifth gate would have to be increasing the average length of stay. Unfortunately, that’s tied to the average length of the US vacation, and it has gotten shorter since Animal Kingdom opened, not longer. At some point, I could see the average length of vacation time getting longer for Americans (just look to Europe for that), but that type of cultural shift takes decades.
Tom, we’ve been coming to WDW, some years multiple times a year, from up north for about 13 years. We are at Ft Wilderness right now (1/28/2018). I agree with your analysis and would expand on a couple of points. Besides the obvious general economic boom of late and most people just now feeling like they will have more money, I think the paltry offering just now at Hollywood Studios is moving traffic to the other parks generally. HS has become a 1/2 day park to us, and we really have been passing it up lately. Next, Animal Kingdom is just unreal crowded with Pandora. We were there yesterday and at times couldn’t walk because of the sheet number of people. AK has some of the smaller walk ways, so it exacerbates the issue. Wait times at the new attractions were > 3hrs standby! Finally, there are a ton of people from South America here just now. I think this is great that their economies are doing well and so many now can make the trip during their summertime. To me these are the macro issues. Thanks again for the great analysis.
I was likewise surprised by Animal Kingdom and impact of Pandora. Some re-working of the park to accommodate crowds occurred prior to Pandora, but clearly, it was not enough. It’s somewhat troubling that the mid-term plans for WDW call for almost nothing for Animal Kingdom (aside from that ‘Up’ bird show, but that’s not nearly enough).
If things continue this way, more will have to be added to Animal Kingdom sooner rather than later to help absorb crowds there–especially if Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge has the effect of creating a ‘rising tide’ across the board at Walt Disney World, and I think it will.
Thank you for this post! For me, the crowds are all part of the “experience” and I would prefer a little hustle and bustle over a ghost town any day.
I prefer a happy medium–ideally one that allows me to re-ride the PeopleMover midday without getting off, rather than waiting in line 10-20 minutes for it. 😉
You are likely thinking of a level 5 day vs a level 1-2. That is understandable. What we experienced the past 10 days (Jan 17-27) was 7,8 & 9, when crowd predictor sites thought it would be 3-6). It was the first visit for our 8 yr old granddaughter. And even with our following all of Tom’ s excellent tips and suggestions, no one could enjoy those crowds.
(A very small percentage of guests were Brazilian tour groups & they were wonderfully behaved. The largest overall contingency appeared to be Northeasterners…. New Jersey & New York by their accents and behavior styles. So the healthy economy is likely the reason for the surge, even at a Deluxe Resort level. The Beach Club pool was so crowded, it closed to additional swimmers one day, according to fellow guests.)
With 3 more grandchildren to bring for their first visits, we are dreading future crowds. And this as life-long Disney Park planning “pros” with around 35 visits to WDW since ‘95 …and the close to the same number to Disneyland. (Almost always staying on property.)
Tom is correct… times are changing. One upside to a future recession will hopefully be a slowdown of what we saw last week.