Is There an Off-Season at Disney World?
For ages, people have been saying, “there’s no off-season at Walt Disney World anymore.” It’s true that almost every year for just under a decade, annual attendance has increased. In most cases, this has been 1% to 5% bumps (per TEA reports), but it’s still noticeable–especially in aggregate. (Last updated February 4, 2019.)
During our visits to Walt Disney World last January and February, we were shocked by the crowds. Data showed that wait times were up over 20% year over year, and the parks felt even more crowded than that due to reduced capacity on attractions and shorter operating hours.
Wait times actually decreased by modest amounts in the second half of the year, which is especially noteworthy because Magic Kingdom operating hours also decreased, with fewer early openings and late closings (the times of day most likely to have shorter wait times. That’s the good news–the bad news is that wait times were once again elevated in January 2019.
In the original incarnation of this post, we speculated that last year’s spike was due to a range of factors, from shifting school schedules to James Cameron to the economy and consumer confidence. In our subsequent post, Explaining Increased Crowds at Walt Disney World, we offered Disney’s manipulation of ride capacity as the most likely scenario.
It would appear that Walt Disney World is up to these same games again in 2019, as average wait times were frequently higher in January than they were last October, November, or December. Given that January used to be a sleepy time of year that we referred to as the holiday hangover, this is quite the change.
In addition to ride capacity, Walt Disney World has mastered the art of manipulating crowds, incentivizing guests to travel during what used to be the off-season. Perhaps the biggest exemplar of this is the Walt Disney World Marathon, and we should note that it occurred almost a full week later than normal in January 2019, which undoubtedly had a more prolonged impact on crowds.
This is nothing new–Disney has been effectively manipulating crowds for (at least) the last 5 years, refining its approach along the way. This would explain October and early December gradually becoming more crowded over the course of several years, but not the surge that has been evident more recently.
When analyzing crowds of today, it’s also worthwhile to look at past trends, particularly in tandem with the economy. During the global financial crisis, attendance at Walt Disney World held relatively flat. This was an impressive feat during the Great Recession, and led to a view of the parks as recession-proof. (In part, this led to the investments we are now seeing–Parks & Resorts was viewed as a stable and reliable business unit.)
Since the economic recovery began, attendance at Walt Disney World has soared. Magic Kingdom’s attendance numbers have climbed by over 3 million annual guests during that time, per TEA reports. This is in spite of pretty steep ticket and hotel price increases, neither of which have done much to slow attendance growth.
This is one big reason why “there’s no such thing as off-season at Walt Disney World” has become such a popular refrain. Not only were crowds significantly lower during the Great Recession, but operating hours were actually longer. (Remember when Evening Extra Magic Hours used to be 3 hours?!)
This all brings us back to the titular question: is there an off-season at Walt Disney World? Last year, we answered that there is not much of an ‘off-season’ in traditional parlance. That seems to be true thus far in early 2019, but there are signs that there’s still an off-season.
For starters, last fall was particularly slow, leading us to write another article, “All Quiet on the Crowds at Disney World Front.” We’d expect that trend to continue in 2019, especially as many guests are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens.
While we are anticipating crowds to be bonkers once Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens (likely in November or December 2019), one big silver lining is that in the months leading up to it, crowds should be pretty soft. We’re already seeing signs of this with Walt Disney World dumping hotel inventory on Priceline Express and releasing Free Dining several months early.
However, one unfortunate byproduct of Walt Disney World’s sometimes aggressive reductions of ride capacity is that it’s very difficult to predict what wait times will look like, even on days when attendance is markedly lower. If attractions have their capacity cut in half, that can have a huge impact on wait times–even on less busy days.
Due to this, aggressive discounts we’re likely to see this year, and the big unknown of when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will debut, I would have an increasing amount of skepticism when relying upon crowd calendars. I think things have been trending in this direction for a few years now, actually. Crowd calendars still have utility at a high level when considering over-arching trends–and when viewed in tandem with weather and seasonal events–but I would not put my full faith in day-by-day, park-by-park scores. Relying upon these for planning your travel dates is an invitation for disappointment.
This sentiment is not a shot at other planning resources. Our own Best and Worst Months to Visit Disney World post underscores the low crowds of January, dubbing them as “lethargic.” If what we experienced in January 2019 is lethargic, I fear what Easter or October will look like. In the few years since we first published that post, I’ve revised its rankings several times, as crowds continue to grow and shift. After waiting in line 20 minutes for the TTA PeopleMover in January and seeing several attractions with 2-3 hour waits on a regular basis, I am about ready to throw my hands up in defeat.
There was a time when the past was the best predictor of the future when it came to Walt Disney World crowds. Data from previous years coupled with park hours, school calendars, etc., could produce reliable forward-looking predictions about Walt Disney World crowds. I’m not sure to what extent that remains true. There seems to be far more fluidity and unpredictability to crowds now.
As for whether the concept of an off-season at Walt Disney World will truly be a thing of the past after Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, I don’t think so. What the robust economy giveth, the sluggish economy taketh. (Although not entirely, see the ‘recession-proof’ line above.) It’s hard to envision the economy continuing its current trajectory unabated, indefinitely. To the contrary, a ‘correction’ (to put it mildly) is due at some point in the medium-term.
When that happens, either attendance will fall or discounting will be more aggressive to maintain current numbers, or both. With each price increase and upcharge offering, Disney is gradually shifting its reputation to being a luxury travel destination. That’s a perception those who are firmly in the middle class–a demographic visiting now in strong numbers because they are doing well–will likely remember if when there’s a recession.
What I think is less likely is a return to the off-season crowd levels of the aughts and decades prior. Those days are gone, unlikely to return at any point in the foreseeable future. Walt Disney World has grown and changed considerably (a reality that’ll be further cemented with the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and the additions of the 50th Anniversary after that), as have the sophistication of the company’s marketing and crowd-spreading efforts.
For long-time Walt Disney World fans, this might all sound like bad news. Selfishly, we all want our visits to be relatively crowd-free. We also want the parks to continue growing and evolving (except when our own nostalgia is threatened). It’s all a delicate needle to thread. While I have some trepidation about what the future might hold in terms of crowdedness and pricing, I’m also incredibly optimistic about the money being invested into the parks right now, and how much better things will look for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. Frankly, if I had to choose between the lower crowd levels of a decade ago coupled with the creative stagnation of that era, or the all-around growth of today (and the near-future), I’ll choose the latter every single time. Absent of being able to pick the “right” dates on the calendar, there are still other ways to beat the crowds. At Walt Disney World just as in life, the times they are a-changing; you better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone.
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Your Thoughts
What has your experience been with crowds at Walt Disney World recently? Have you encountered ‘dead’ weeks in the last two years? Do you agree or disagree with our take on the off-season? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Yes. As a cast member this is mostly true. February is now usually mostly better than January besides Valentine’s Day. Early to mid September is okay but hot. Early May is my very favorite now weather and crowd wise. Very quiet. When schook is out, weekends are a better bet bc that’s wheb people are traveling. When school is in it’s a more local crowd so mid week is best.
I wouldn’t be so quick with the May and September recommendations, as those months have yet to occur in 2018. Last year, we found January to be less crowded than both May and September (which were also good months). The continued momentum of the economy could make May, September, and every month in between and after ridiculously crowded, too.
We visited each of the parks from Jan 21-24, 2018. Lines were brutal on most everything. We finished at Animal Kingdom on Wed, the 24th, thinking it would be the least crowded time for Pandora, Flight of Passage. Fast Passes were unavailable to us for the ride, so we decided to be there before the park opened and head for the ride as soon as the rope dropped. It was a 3 hr wait by the time we got on. The app said it was a 90 minute wait when we first got in line, but kept stretching as the line grew. I’ve never waited 25% of a day for a single ride, and hope never to do that again. It was an amazing ride, but I’m not sure it was was worth standing for 180 minutes. Overall, we were surprised at how crowded all the parks were.
To all of the people who are complaining that there isn’t an ‘off season’ at Disney. I guess that depends on how you define ‘off season’. If you really think there isn’t an ‘off season’ I have a suggestion. Next time you are scheduling your trip, make it between Christmas Day and New Years Day… you probably won’t notice a difference.
On that same note, I’d recommend visiting Times Square on New Year’s Eve. Then you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the crowds on every subsequent trip to New York!
Just visited January 12-24. Very busy over Martin Luther King weekend however, was less crowded starting on 1/16. Still busier than in past January visits. Fast passes helped as well as taking advantage of extra hours for those staying at Walt Disney resorts. Selecting which parks to visit on extra hour days helps with line wait times.
All info available online so planning before you go makes for a smoother trip.
My family typically goes in late April / early May. We do this for two reasons. Going to WDW during spring break or other school breaks (mid February) costs at least twice, if not three or four times as much (when considering hotels / flights). One way from BUF to MCO during spring break can be as high as $400 through Southwest. Going off season I have gotten one way as low as $79.
The second reason for going early May is lower crowds due to kids still being in school. We did this in 2017. It was busy, but not shoulder to shoulder crowded. Wait times were not crazy, as long as you did your research and planned Fast Passes accordingly.
As long as you don’t mind pulling your children out of school, I think that is your best bet to avoiding heavy crowds.
My husband and I got married in WDW in Jan 1998–twenty years ago. That was our first visit to WDW, and we loved it. The parks were so empty that we basically walked on to every ride except the Flying Dumbos (LOL). We returned on our 5th anniversary (and ran the marathon), and still enjoyed the relative emptiness. Waits were a bit longer, but we attributed it to the upcoming marathon weekend. However, we could still basically walk on to rides such as Big Thunder and Pirates.
We returned for our 10th anniversary and was shocked at how crowded it was–though in fairness, it really was still relatively dead. There were just a lot more people than we were used to seeing there. The old Fast Pass system (which was awesome!) kept our waits down, and we were generally happy.
This year, we returned for our 20th anniversary, and we were miserable. SO MANY PEOPLE. Fast Pass “plus” was a huge minus. We hated being married to the stupid FP+ schedule, we disliked being unable to wander and just get on a ride when we felt like it. I don’t think we’re ever going back there again. (On a side note, this year we went to Universal Orlando right before going to WDW, and we really loved it. So it’s not that we are getting older and not liking theme parks. We liked that the Universal Express pass let us skip ALL the lines and we liked having a refillable mug IN THE PARKS. )
Anyone go the 1st or 2nd week in November recently?
At this point, the only advantage to traveling in the traditional “off seasons” is the cost of air travel. We’ve gone the past 3 Septembers, trying to fit in a long weekend around a Jewish holiday (family of teachers here!) and this year we’re going to go in the summer. With the extra time, we’ll drive instead of fly to save on airfare (which is literally half the price in September that it is during school vacations), and we can spend more days in the parks.
With Halloween parties and Food and Wine starting so early, it cramps our style since we aren’t interested in either. The first year we tried September, we went early in the month before the Halloween parties and F&W started. Now they’ve started so early that the entire month of September is overrun with both. It’s no fun to try and coordinate everything around party days and non-party days, and trying to avoid Epcot after 11 AM on the weekends. With summer, we can just go and expect it to be pretty evenly crowded the entire time. No big surprises or ebbs and flows with parties and festivals.
As a teacher, I’m kind of happy with the more evenly spread out crowds, since it was always challenging for us to squeeze in an off season trip anyway. Now there’s no pressure or really any reason to do so, and we can just travel when we’re off school for longer periods of time.
As someone who lives here and can pretty much pick whenever I would like to go….I would say I would choose last week of September or first week of December…mid-week preferred. January can be quieter but after the weather we have been having, I feel sorry for folks who travel here, spend a big chunk for a Florida vacation and wind up with that mess.
It is true though, it has gotten a lot more nuanced picking times than it was in the past. Too many moving pieces: special events, foreign calendars, weather ups and downs, etc, etc.
Yes. As a cast member this is mostly true. February is now usually mostly better than January besides Valentine’s Day. Early to mid September is okay but hot. Early May is my very favorite now weather and crowd wise. Very quiet. When schook is out, weekends are a better bet bc that’s wheb people are traveling. When school is in it’s a more local crowd so mid week is best.
James Cameron – still laughing!
Totally agree, the ‘off season’ has gone. We went twice last year from the UK.
End of August and September wasn’t too bad for us (which I summarised with 75 min wait for FoP vs 140 min wait in December).
We had read your blog and others in regards to December and were anticipating the run of the house, so to speak. I thought – Mine Train, easy! Splash Mountain – walk on!
How wrong can you be? We still had a wonderful vacation but were truly shocked.
By contrast Universal was pretty quiet – walked on almost everything. 10 min wait for Hogwarts, 25 minutes for Gringotts – I can never remember the ACTUAL names!!! 🙂 Forgive me! Only thing with a longer wait was Kong.
At least I’ll always have my memories of a near empty MK in the rain in December way back when….
My wife and I visited Disney World on January 15th and 16th, 2018. All parks were extremely busy even Epcot. Lines were long but our “park hoppers” allowed us four fast passes per day which helped. Waited almost two hours for the Avatar ride but it was worth it. Parks had many visitors from South America. Avoid MLK week I guess.
I agree with this 100%. My family always travels during the “off-season”. Nothing ruins Disney like suffocating crowds. During the last few years though, despite consulting multiple crowd calendars, the crowds have been very high. October used to be our month. When that secret got out, we switched to January. Last January, crowds were supposed to be a level 2 (out of 10), but I said to my husband, “if these are level 2 crowds, I’d hate to see anything higher!”. It’s a shame, because it really takes the fun out of going for me.
It’s certainly an interesting one. We’re English and have to go in school holidays – August 2017 middle 2 weeks. It was hot occasionally crowded but here’s the thing for me – outside of of the E-ticket attractions with good planning wait times were acceptable. Depends if you want an empty park that off-season matters coz the trade off is fewer cast members and longer lines. I’ve not been in February but outside of the infrastructure staff will be their biggest cost so they’ll cut that in slower times. Do they run both stations and all trains on BTMRR and SM. whenever I check queue times always seem to be similar!
I think an important factor not mentioned in the article is the ability to pay for annual passes monthly. Those who could not afford to buy the annual passes outright can do so now. And I think if research is done on this you will be surprised as to how many more Floridians owns annual passes since the monthly pay system was put in place. And once they own them, they feel like they need to get their money’s worth, so they end up going a few times a year. Although I don’t think this is the sole reason for the large crowds year-round, I certainly believe its a contributing factor.
Absolutely agree!! And the season pass holders are given block-out dates, which are the traditional busy times. So they flock during the “supposedy off-times”.
You are absolutely right about the pass holders. I live and work near Disney, I am not a pass holder but my guess is more than 25% of residents are.
The monthly payment option was introduced in 2010, so it would’ve caused a spike in crowds then, not ~7 years later.
Annual Pass prices have spiked dramatically in the last 5 years; I’d be shocked if the number of Annual Passholders has markedly increased during that time.
tom..i am a reporter with cbs Orlando. I woukd like to do a story on yoir disney crowd observations. mikr holfeld wkmg tv
We visited Disney Springs a couple of weeks ago, it was so crowded that we were elbow to elbow with people. Couldn’t even get into Blaze pizza, had to wait about 30 minutes at Earl of Sandwich. And it was COLD!!!! We won’t be back in January, if it is going to be that crowded I at least want to be warm!
We went in late September of 2017 and it didn’t seem to be very crowded. I’ve been there during Thanksgiving, numerous times, and that’s what my standard of crowded is based on. In my opinion, the reason why the parks seem so busy is because they are basically down a park right now. Hollywood Studios is only half open, which pushes the crowds to other parks. When toy story and star wars lands open in the next 2 years, you’ll see the crowds start to spread out again. Also weather is playing a factor this year. They have closed down the water parks for a good chunk of the winter which causes people to go elsewhere, not to mention the hurricanes from the summer.
My first visit to WDW was 1972, and yes! You are absolutely correct – all the construction leave visitors less to spread out into. When WDW has completed its expanding in a couple of years we may just get back our slow crowded times. I have high hopes for this.
Here’s a question: did anyone go anytime in 2017 where it wasn’t terribly crowded?
8-11 am at any park during the summer. It’s heading towards planning day by day instead of season by season.
I was there for a week in late July/early August with my family of 6. While the parks were far from empty, it never felt terribly crowded to me, especially compared to my past experiences in March/April which usually coincides with spring break. I did not particularly enjoy the weather in summer, but the crowds did not bother me. I had expected far worse.
We went right after Irma. We missed a few days of our planned trip due to flight cancelations, but we added on a few days with a lot of effort. The crowds at the parks were not bad at all even though hotels seemed full.
20 minutes for the People Mover???!!! We’ve used the super-detailed crowd calendars with great success (a few rainy days in January on our last visit meant the crowd levels were even lower than predicted) but have heard from so many that it’s just busy all the time, and now wonder if we just got lucky… Next trip is a Disney Cruise, our first!
Love some Bob Dylan 😉
My family went the 2nd week of December in 2005. The parks were half full and I wouldn’t be surprised if the GF was half full too. I thought we stumbled on the perfect time to visit: beautiful decorations and no crowds. Flash forward to that same time in December 2016 and we could hardly move at the Magic Kingdom on Saturday. We waited for a third ferry boat to take us from the TTC to the MK. So much for a quiet time. October 2002 was desolate too. I hear it is a zoo much of that month now. They do a great job planning events and making it so that people want to come at times that were once slow. With all of these huge resorts being built, they really need to enlarge the parks, much more so than Start Wars, or Toy Story. A California Adventure type park with thrill rides would be a great addition. The Magic Kingdom seems land locked but they could always build another land accessible by a train. They certainly have enough land still.