Is There an Off-Season at Disney World?
For ages, people have been saying, “there’s no off-season at Walt Disney World anymore.” It’s true that almost every year for just under a decade, annual attendance has increased. In most cases, this has been 1% to 5% bumps (per TEA reports), but it’s still noticeable–especially in aggregate. (Last updated February 4, 2019.)
During our visits to Walt Disney World last January and February, we were shocked by the crowds. Data showed that wait times were up over 20% year over year, and the parks felt even more crowded than that due to reduced capacity on attractions and shorter operating hours.
Wait times actually decreased by modest amounts in the second half of the year, which is especially noteworthy because Magic Kingdom operating hours also decreased, with fewer early openings and late closings (the times of day most likely to have shorter wait times. That’s the good news–the bad news is that wait times were once again elevated in January 2019.
In the original incarnation of this post, we speculated that last year’s spike was due to a range of factors, from shifting school schedules to James Cameron to the economy and consumer confidence. In our subsequent post, Explaining Increased Crowds at Walt Disney World, we offered Disney’s manipulation of ride capacity as the most likely scenario.
It would appear that Walt Disney World is up to these same games again in 2019, as average wait times were frequently higher in January than they were last October, November, or December. Given that January used to be a sleepy time of year that we referred to as the holiday hangover, this is quite the change.
In addition to ride capacity, Walt Disney World has mastered the art of manipulating crowds, incentivizing guests to travel during what used to be the off-season. Perhaps the biggest exemplar of this is the Walt Disney World Marathon, and we should note that it occurred almost a full week later than normal in January 2019, which undoubtedly had a more prolonged impact on crowds.
This is nothing new–Disney has been effectively manipulating crowds for (at least) the last 5 years, refining its approach along the way. This would explain October and early December gradually becoming more crowded over the course of several years, but not the surge that has been evident more recently.
When analyzing crowds of today, it’s also worthwhile to look at past trends, particularly in tandem with the economy. During the global financial crisis, attendance at Walt Disney World held relatively flat. This was an impressive feat during the Great Recession, and led to a view of the parks as recession-proof. (In part, this led to the investments we are now seeing–Parks & Resorts was viewed as a stable and reliable business unit.)
Since the economic recovery began, attendance at Walt Disney World has soared. Magic Kingdom’s attendance numbers have climbed by over 3 million annual guests during that time, per TEA reports. This is in spite of pretty steep ticket and hotel price increases, neither of which have done much to slow attendance growth.
This is one big reason why “there’s no such thing as off-season at Walt Disney World” has become such a popular refrain. Not only were crowds significantly lower during the Great Recession, but operating hours were actually longer. (Remember when Evening Extra Magic Hours used to be 3 hours?!)
This all brings us back to the titular question: is there an off-season at Walt Disney World? Last year, we answered that there is not much of an ‘off-season’ in traditional parlance. That seems to be true thus far in early 2019, but there are signs that there’s still an off-season.
For starters, last fall was particularly slow, leading us to write another article, “All Quiet on the Crowds at Disney World Front.” We’d expect that trend to continue in 2019, especially as many guests are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens.
While we are anticipating crowds to be bonkers once Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens (likely in November or December 2019), one big silver lining is that in the months leading up to it, crowds should be pretty soft. We’re already seeing signs of this with Walt Disney World dumping hotel inventory on Priceline Express and releasing Free Dining several months early.
However, one unfortunate byproduct of Walt Disney World’s sometimes aggressive reductions of ride capacity is that it’s very difficult to predict what wait times will look like, even on days when attendance is markedly lower. If attractions have their capacity cut in half, that can have a huge impact on wait times–even on less busy days.
Due to this, aggressive discounts we’re likely to see this year, and the big unknown of when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will debut, I would have an increasing amount of skepticism when relying upon crowd calendars. I think things have been trending in this direction for a few years now, actually. Crowd calendars still have utility at a high level when considering over-arching trends–and when viewed in tandem with weather and seasonal events–but I would not put my full faith in day-by-day, park-by-park scores. Relying upon these for planning your travel dates is an invitation for disappointment.
This sentiment is not a shot at other planning resources. Our own Best and Worst Months to Visit Disney World post underscores the low crowds of January, dubbing them as “lethargic.” If what we experienced in January 2019 is lethargic, I fear what Easter or October will look like. In the few years since we first published that post, I’ve revised its rankings several times, as crowds continue to grow and shift. After waiting in line 20 minutes for the TTA PeopleMover in January and seeing several attractions with 2-3 hour waits on a regular basis, I am about ready to throw my hands up in defeat.
There was a time when the past was the best predictor of the future when it came to Walt Disney World crowds. Data from previous years coupled with park hours, school calendars, etc., could produce reliable forward-looking predictions about Walt Disney World crowds. I’m not sure to what extent that remains true. There seems to be far more fluidity and unpredictability to crowds now.
As for whether the concept of an off-season at Walt Disney World will truly be a thing of the past after Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, I don’t think so. What the robust economy giveth, the sluggish economy taketh. (Although not entirely, see the ‘recession-proof’ line above.) It’s hard to envision the economy continuing its current trajectory unabated, indefinitely. To the contrary, a ‘correction’ (to put it mildly) is due at some point in the medium-term.
When that happens, either attendance will fall or discounting will be more aggressive to maintain current numbers, or both. With each price increase and upcharge offering, Disney is gradually shifting its reputation to being a luxury travel destination. That’s a perception those who are firmly in the middle class–a demographic visiting now in strong numbers because they are doing well–will likely remember if when there’s a recession.
What I think is less likely is a return to the off-season crowd levels of the aughts and decades prior. Those days are gone, unlikely to return at any point in the foreseeable future. Walt Disney World has grown and changed considerably (a reality that’ll be further cemented with the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and the additions of the 50th Anniversary after that), as have the sophistication of the company’s marketing and crowd-spreading efforts.
For long-time Walt Disney World fans, this might all sound like bad news. Selfishly, we all want our visits to be relatively crowd-free. We also want the parks to continue growing and evolving (except when our own nostalgia is threatened). It’s all a delicate needle to thread. While I have some trepidation about what the future might hold in terms of crowdedness and pricing, I’m also incredibly optimistic about the money being invested into the parks right now, and how much better things will look for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. Frankly, if I had to choose between the lower crowd levels of a decade ago coupled with the creative stagnation of that era, or the all-around growth of today (and the near-future), I’ll choose the latter every single time. Absent of being able to pick the “right” dates on the calendar, there are still other ways to beat the crowds. At Walt Disney World just as in life, the times they are a-changing; you better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone.
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Your Thoughts
What has your experience been with crowds at Walt Disney World recently? Have you encountered ‘dead’ weeks in the last two years? Do you agree or disagree with our take on the off-season? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I’ve been going to Disney since 1972. In the 90s it really was perfect! It was so clean, an enjoyable atmosphere, and the staff was friendly and did a wonderful job at making you feel special. When I visited over those years, I felt like I was totally away from it all. Fast forward to this past December (we hadn’t been to Disney this time since 2011) and our experience was very disappointing. We stayed 10 days. I did all my homework and planned and planned. Well, crowds blew my plans out the window. But what we found that really impacted our trip was the crowd level for sure, but also the lack of cleanliness of the parks and the negative attitude of the workers. For us another was the constant alcohol drinking everywhere. We stayed at the Caribbean. Our room was not clean like it used to be at Disney resorts. Most of the workers at the resort and at the parks were so negative, even rude. My daughter had food poisoning at the beginning and we should have known better because the Quick service we ate at was quite dirty. Even table service restaurant food was not as good as it once was. We never did have a good day at MK due to the sea of people. It was wall to wall people. We hardly rode anything but we couldn’t even walk around and enjoy the atmosphere due to crowds. I do feel bad for those who need scooters, but my husband was run into. I was run into by a stroller. We couldn’t believe how many strollers and scooters there were as opposed to in years past. We also had an incident of drunken men on the Three Cabaleros ride. Disney did nothing. They did not follow their protocol outlined in their rules. Drinking was rather out of control as we observed. So many parents with their beer and little children. We watched a family neglecting their small children and the baby in the stroller was left in the middle of the walkway while the men drank beer and smoked. Smoking was not monitored either. We were around so many smokers who did not smoke in the designated areas. Disney simply can’t keep up with anything really. They can’t monitor and uphold their rules. We spoke to a security guard outside Epcot after the drunken episode. He told us Disney only has two security guards for all of Epcot inside the park. That’s ridiculous! When making money is more important than having a quality place for families to come and enjoy, that’s when Disney needs to evaluate and rethink their scheme of things. They are not upholding Walt Disney’s intent of having Disney World. It has changed so much and they just can’t keep up with it all. We had some special moments but very few and they were “off the beaten path” experiences. I agree with one comment regarding selling only so many tickets. The parks have capacity numbers but those numbers are unreal! It’s all just very sad and makes us realize the Disney of old is long gone!
Having just visited Tokyo Disneyland, there were definitely things they did there that I’d like to see adopted by Magic Kingdom, such as the shaded/covered “Main St.” area by the entrance. It was the first non-WDW Disney park I’d visited, and it was interesting to see how they adapted WDW park concepts to their climate and cultural environment.
I’m cautiously optimistic that the revamping of Hollywood Studios will – as others have said – take the load off the Magic Kingdom. Our last visit was in late August 2016, and while the weather was brutal, the crowd levels were at least manageable…and Hollywood Studios was basically dead (with the Star Wars stuff under construction). The revitalization/re-imagining of EPCOT could certainly help rebalance crowds, too.
Tom, I appreciate your post on this because we were shocked as well with January crowds. We had a week-long trip the week of January 15th MLK in 2017 and enjoyed remarkably low crowds, great later-day fast pass selection, and short wait times. We just got back from the exact same week long stay in 2018 and noted the crowds and wait times to be extreme. There was almost no availability of same-day fast passes (for our #4 after using our previously scheduled 3), the volume of people within the parks was surprising, and even at “rope drop” the wait times were high. Our hotel (Wilderness Lodge) seemed empty and all cast members I spoke with about the crowds kept insisting this was the off season. Where are the crowds coming from?
I have been going to Disney for last 8 years. To me it’s the best place In the world I love everything about it. Ok so you want shorter lines do the fast past . I never had to wait in line . Yes, I stay on the property and I love that. No ,I do not do the hotels like PopCentury . Where
There is lots of childeren and lots of family’s because I have one child and a husband and they like staying at French Quarter where it is quite and calm so they relax at the pool. I can understand that but, at a park No! If you know you are going to one of the biggest park ever
There is going to be a lot of people no matter what, you go plan it ,stay at your hotel and swim in the day go to the park at night . Do what ever makes you feel comfortable . And I know the prices keep going up, but isn’t everything you buy keep going up . Everybody’s got to make a living and I think that Walt was one of the smartest people to live. He brought joy to everyone .
Hi! We are going to WDW in the early June (yes, i know… ) and i’m already thinking about my FP haha we are going to stay in a Disney resort. My question is… We have a little girl 3YO, can we use FP and Rider swap and this way have more FP? I feel like i’m cheating haha… We will use most of the FP for the three of us in kid’s atractions but Flight of passage for example, can we use only one FP and ride the atraction two? Thank you!
So… each person can have their 3 FPs. There’s no requirement that they be the same, but remember that a child who doesn’t meet the solo-riding height requirement can’t go on an attraction without an adult… so if they have a FP for that attraction and you don’t, they can’t use their FP.
That said, you and your husband should probably figure out how to SPLIT your FP selections so that each of you would ride SOLO for one ride on that specific attraction, get a rider swap ticket and then all THREE of you would ride the attraction (or just the other adult). In this way, you’ll be able to get FPs for more than one Tier 1 attraction at a park (like Soarin’ and Test Track) and both get to ride it (albeit as single riders, but at least you won’t have to wait in line).
Thank you Jeff! 🙂
The crowds have ruined the experience. The day has become getting on a ride and then trying to maneuver between people to get to the next ride. No more enjoying the site of the parks and the little areas. There’s no place to rest and regroup without battling crowds. Every time I hear they’re building a new hotel I cringe. I just got back and all the parks closed at 8:00. They knew how busy it was going to be because almost all their hotels were booked. They should’ve extended the hours for all parks everyday. It’s wrong to have people wait in 1-3hour lines and close that early. It’s all about money and not a magical experience anymore. They used to have a better balance of the two but it’s lost.
$25 for a tiny vegetable quiche and $3 for tea at Be Our Guest is outrageous. We had to seat ourselves and get our own drinks, for those prices I want to be properly served.
I can also see the difference in the cast member’s attitudes. They try but are so overworked and overwhelmed by these large crowds. Some were great but for the first time I witnessed some rude cast members. i think it’s because they’re overworked and don’t have enough of them.
I could go on about the negatives but they do still do a lot of things right Unfortunately if the crowds continue Disney will not be a yearly vacation for us.
Unfortunately I have to agree.
Our family of four went the first two weeks of November and the crowds were horrendous.
We found what was really aggravating were the double-wide strollers and the motorized scooters. The strollers made it difficult to get around them….and the scooters…multiple times our heels were run into by people on them. Granted that these vehicles are necessities for some people but with the already crowded conditions it makes it even worse.
Hey…I was in one of those double wide strollers. LOL.
It was our first time, and while it got busy around Veterans Day, I thought the crowds with solid planning were quite manageable.
I still think that first week of September when school is in after Labor Day would be perfect.
Crowds at the parks bum me out. We aren’t able to ride our faves anymore due to the fast pass stuff. They continue to build more hotels, but not parks. More people, less space everywhere. We do enjoy the parties at night… at this point they feel like better value. Mostly we are looking at other options for vacation now. We do enjoy Disney cruises {smaller ships}. The herding of people at the parks just isn’t worth the price for any magic left anymore for us.
I completely agree. We used to be able to go on a bunch of rides in the morning and enjoy the hotel in the afternoons. It was so crowded we got on 3 rides by 3:00 and the whole week was like this. We didn’t get to enjoy the hotel at all so it was exhausting. A cruise sounds more like it.
We were there last year at the end of the summer when southern states had started school already, it was hot, but I thought the crowds were totally manageable. Our neighbors went in April, and based on the photos I saw, I’d take the heat over the swarm of humanity any time. Had a great time, and next time we visit we will do the same. We skipped the Avatar attractions since our kids are little, and really didn’t have too bad a wait on anything else we wanted to do, it was a good mix with the fast pass, and then being able to jump on other things as we walked past. Lucked out a few times being in the area of some of the bigger attractions as they came online from being down for maintenance. Lucked out with the free dining promotion, it was a great trip.
We were there this past November and it was wall to wall, they had shorter hours and then add in Very Merry Christmas Party 2 nights made for MK being crazy busy the entire trip…. it really was disappointing thinking the crouds would be manageable but we were definitely wrong…. They should stay open much later than they do during winter months…
We’ll be at WDW next February (21th / 23th).
I don’t know if it will be busy, but we are so excited to be there during our holidays in Florida (we live in Lyon, France). We can’t wait to discover the Orlando parks – our reference is the DisneyLand Paris Resort.
All FastPass+ and diner reservations are made for the 3 days… We’ll stay at the Animal Kingdom Lodge (Club Level) – depending the crowds, we’ll look on site at the new paid fastpass+ service.
Tom, your blog was a tremendous help to plan our trip from France, many thanks !
That’s a US holiday week so expect extremely large crowds. Make sure to book fastpasses and take advantage of extra magic hours. You can go in early or stay late. We’d go in early on late extra magic hours days then go back to the hotel for lunch. It gives you time to relax and then go back at night when the parks all lit up. You can get on 3 rides in an hour easily during extra magic hour.
Good luck and have a great time
Having visited at all times of year and more than once a year over the last 5 years , we’ve seen all kinds of crowd levels. We were in the parks Jan. 23 & 24 and also noticed high crowds for mid-week at a “slow” time in January. The parks still had limited off-season hours but high crowds. A simple fix is to treat these weeks like June… increase staff and lengthen hours to handle the influx. We decided having Extra Magic hours from 8-10pm just didn’t help much… too many people stayed. In June, Extra Magic hours from 11-1 allowed us to walk on some rides and have short waits for others. With the earlier Extra Magic hours, there was minimal impact on wait times. The best waits were during the evening shows which is why we rarely see them. In short, we might pick our vacation dates based on park hours instead of “low” crowd levels for future trips.
They should open 24 hours… it would be nice in summer to be there at 3 or 4 am, avoiding heat conditions…
That would be amazing!!
We are going this November…
I am wishful thinking…. hoping a lot of people are going to hold off and go in 2019 when Star Wars opens.
We just got back a week a go- we were down from Jan 13th through the 23rd..and i was shocked that not even the cold weather could keep the crowds away. We will go back to our normal September trips…
My husband and I gave been to WDW @ 17 times between 1979 and 2002. We didn’t get back until Nov. 2015, with our kids (their first time ). No longer is this “The Happiest Place on Earth”.
The crowds were awful, we thought, but then we went 1st week December 2017 and crowds were even worse. Who in their right mind wants to wait 90 minutes for Peter Pan?! Forget about Avatar, 3 & 4 hour wait time is insanity. We can’t imagine returning. Our questions are:
1) why have the nightmare that is the Food and Wine Festival when parks are already overcrowded? $$$$$ for Disney, obviously.
2) Is there hope that newly designed Disney Hollyood Studios will take some of the burden off Magic Kingdom?
3) How are they going to fix the fast pass system. With guests reserving spots 60 days in advance there is little hope of getting on certain rides within a decent time frame.
Inasmuch as I agree that it was really crowded, I think the FastPass system isn’t perfect, but it’s not awful, either.
Even with two small kids, we are still able to do just about every attraction in the MK, Epcot and Animal Kingdom without too much of a wait. In fact, with this last trip, we rode Test Track four times, Soarin three times, everything except Space Mtn (because the older kid doesn’t like it), and only had to do a long wait for Flight of Passage. We got at least six fast passes per park (without any kind of cheats and not including rider swaps).
So some of the FP issues are just not optimally using the system, or booking 60 days out for the first three.
I’m curious to how you got six fast passes per park!? That sounds great!
Hi how did you do it? Great for you and I am hoping I will have the same luck or strategy.
So, I don’’t know if we’re doing something all that unique/secret. But we book exactly 60 days out, having already planned the attractions we want. We book them (and move things around after booking, if necessary) to get them as close to each other as possible… as early in the morning as possible.
Once we have badged into the third attraction (literally at the moment we’re allowed to badge in – no late FP’ers here), while still standing in line, we use the MDE app to book attraction #4, usually at the next “busiest” attraction we can think of at the earliest time we can find (time above all else) – doesn’t matter if we have to walk all the way across AK or not. 😉 Wash, rinse, repeat. If our next FP has a 2 hour wait until it’s active, THAT’s the time we spend in line for a killer attraction.
Doing this with 2 adults and 2 small kids, we’ve been consistently able to get 6-9 FPs/day, arriving for rope drop, and leaving the park around 7pm.
1) You answered your own question. 😉
2) Doubt it. Star Wars is such a colossal draw that we anticipate it raising crowd levels across the board–even at Universal. New people will come to Florida because of it, and they aren’t going to do just one park. (Harry Potter similarly helped bump crowd levels at WDW.)
3) From Disney’s perspective, FastPass is not broken. It does exactly what they want it to do.
I was just there Jan 8-10, 2018 and I suggest avoiding a Monday after a Disney Marathon weekend. It was extremely crowded as we park hopped between Epcot and Magic Kingdom.
This was true of weekdays even later in the month far removed from Marathon Weekend. It used to be the case that the crowds went home that Monday, leaving uncrowded parks post-Marathon. Definitely not the case this year.
The Monday after the marathon had insane waits across all parks! We ran the marathon, so were barely limping around on monday and because standing for over an hour sounded like punishment we ended up going to all 4 parks looking for anything to do. We ultimately only rode 3 rides that day (fast passes), saw all the animals in AK, toured world showcase for the umpteenth time, wander MK for a couple hours and spent about 30 minutes touring all of HS. This was our first year out at marathon weekend, and I had read all the past crowd calendars telling me monday and especially Tuesday would be significantly less crowded, and they were not!! We drove home tuesday after rope dropping HS to get a couple rides in. Next year for marathon weekend we are planning to run and stay at a nice resort to lounge about.
What about summer as the new “off season”? In the past two years, our most crowded trips were in December and November, and least crowded were in July and August. The July trip was over Fourth of July weekend and even on that trip the wait times for everything other than Avatar and Seven Dwarves maxed out at 30 minutes. In August, everything was basically a walk on. It seems like high summer prices plus Florida heat are the only things sufficient to deter crowds.
We’ve noticed in the last couple of years that May and June have been the closest things to dead, with crowds gradually picking up in July (and getting to heavy levels by mid-month).
If you can deal with oppressive heat and humidity, that does seem like the new “off-season,” but I would be scared to book those months this year in the hopes of low crowds…only to find them just as crowded AND with really unpleasant weather. Not worth the gamble for me, but YMMV.
I am thinking June will be slow only because we were able to actually book Be Our Guest. Fingers crossed!
It’s so ironic that I saw this post today. We just got home yesterday from our trip, and my husband and I could not stop talking about the crowds and wait times. We went this exact same week last January and did not have the wait times like we did this year. The lines for Fast Pass were ridiculously long; I have never experienced anything like it in the 10 years we’ve been going. I’m curious what your opinion of the Fast Pass system is and if you have any theories about whether or not there is some manipulation on Disney’s part.
I truly cannot stand the wait times and the crowds are unreal. Ive been in Florida since 1971. There used to be best times to go but no more. With that said, Dosney is always adding and upgrading. The parks always look brand new. If they could somehow make the lines faster and transportation better, I could deal with it. First thing that must be done, get rid of the fastpass option. It used to be get up early, get to the park and have a shot at a fastpass. Now people gobble them up with an app. This is not fair. Just like the old HOV (high occupnacy vehicle lanes in Broward County Florida), they were barely used and traffic got worse. They are gone now. Disney Spends a fortune on ride design but they always leave out wait times. Monorails need to be doubled. The only ride that seems to have the shortest wait time due to speed and ride passenger size is Mount Everest. They should also have a suggestion list based on park volumn on which park to visit on any particular day updated hourly.
Im a premium ticket holder, spent 3 nights at the Grand Floridian and personally rode about 5 rides because wait times where on average over 2 hours.
Disney definitely manipulates ride capacity (taking ride vehicles out of service or slowing dispatch times) with data they acquire from FastPass+ bookings. However, that alone is not enough to spike the wait times to the degree that has occurred recently.
I know this is ridiculous , but I wish Disney would put a cap on selling park tickets. At its most crowded it can really affect your overall experience-even if you are adept at making the best of the situation. You figure at times when onsite hotels are sold out-plus people who stay off site are buying park tickets this is a recipe for overcrowding. I know profits are the most important thing to them but they should care about the experience people are having once they are in the parks.
Ha! I’ve been saying that for YEARS, Never Happen!
Maybe when we all get Sick and Tired of throwing down our cash for Over Crowded parks, and Stop Going, that might get there attention!
“I know this is ridiculous , but I wish Disney would put a cap on selling park tickets.”
Is it ridiculous, though? Tokyo Disneyland does exactly this. They also have significantly better crowd-control, so even when wait times are insane there (and that happens), the parks are not nearly as unpleasant as Magic Kingdom on a busy day.
I am going in August and I am hoping for the best.
Funny. My 13-year-old was just saying the same thing. Over the course of her life we have seen crowds increase astronomically. Over the course of MY visit timeline beginning in 1983, it’s shocking how much crowds have changed in both size and behavior. I would pay more for tickets if they limited admission. How much more crowded will they allow it to get?