All Quiet on the Off-Season at Disney World Front
Walt Disney World crowd trends have been quirky the last few years, which is something to which we’ve paid close attention. Last year, we wrote Summer is No Longer Peak Season at Disney World. Another post from early this year asked the titular question, Is There an Off-Season at Disney World? Well, if our August & September experience was any indication, we can answer that with an emphatic YES!
We originally weren’t going to write about our experience with lower-than-normal crowds, because it’s not exactly breaking news or a splashy story. Unlike light summer crowds, sky-high October occupancy (both of which are now the new normal), or heavy January/February crowds (the jury is still out on whether this continues–we’re betting on no), this isn’t totally abnormal. August and September have been among the lightest months of the year for a long time, so some of this could be written off as much ado about nothing.
To be sure, we’re not suggesting this is some huge story, a harbinger that Walt Disney World is in serious trouble, or sign that prices have gone too much and too many potential guests are being priced out. Honestly, we don’t think it’s any of those things. In this post, we’ll discuss the signs of a quieter than normal off-season at Walt Disney World, what we think is causing this, and what it could mean for the future…
The first sign of a quiet occupancy is hotel occupancy. With schools going back into session, fall has traditionally been a slower time of year for on-property hotels at Walt Disney World, which is why the Free Dining promotion was created years ago, in the first place.
Even calling this promotion wildly successful at filling hotel rooms would be an understatement. Free Dining has propped up occupancy and created a ton of demand for fall. Last year, even despite Hurricane Irma, domestic hotel occupancy was at 84% for this quarter, which is healthy (and even that was down 3% year over year).
This year, we spoke with a few Cast Members at the resorts who noted things were slower than normal, with not nearly as many “full” nights. Perhaps more interestingly, we heard indirectly that Cast Members working guest recovery at Caribbean Beach were having no issues moving people to other resorts–that availability was pretty much wide open.
As for us, every resort we stayed or visited this trip was dead. I’m not one to extrapolate too much from anecdotal observations, but Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs, Yacht & Beach Club, and both Port Orleans Resorts were veritable ghost towns during the time we spent at each. Even Stormalong Bay was uncrowded–and it was hot out!
We started our trip with a couple nights at Port Orleans French Quarter, and our room was ready before 9 a.m. via online check-in. In the past we’ve had luck arriving on a red-eye flight and going to the front desk to inquire about any open rooms, but we didn’t talk to anyone this time. Likewise, the pools and food courts were quiet each time we passed by them.
Even during off-season, this was mildly surprising. We figured Port Orleans French Quarter might see an influx of bargain-seekers like us who found it via Priceline Express Deals for ~$100/night. That’s not a typo–Port Orleans French Quarter was available for most of August and September, with many nights right at $100.
French Quarter was not the only Walt Disney World hotel listed on Priceline for September travel dates. Polynesian, Swan & Dolphin, Fort Wilderness, and Riverside have also been available–and those are just the ones of which I’m aware. For what it’s worth, finding Walt Disney World resorts on Priceline or other ‘blind deal’ sites is not unprecedented, but deals this good are rarer. (Look for a post on this topic coming soon.)
As for the theme parks, this is the least busy trip we’ve taken in a good 3-4 years. As noted in our Magic Kingdom Construction Update, we saw Space Mountain with a 15-minute posted wait midday, and that’s just the start of it. Many attractions had low wait times–seeing Frozen Ever After around 30 minutes was not uncommon, and that held true even once Epcot’s Food & Wine Festival started.
Generally speaking, the parks felt less congested, too. The only real exception to this was Epcot at the start of Food & Wine, but that’s always the case. Our experience would seem to be corroborated by an update from WDWMagic indicating that various areas are being requested to trim back labor costs due to unexpectedly soft attendance.
In the last couple days, we’ve now heard reports that several areas of entertainment are being scaled back, most notably with the Citizens of Hollywood at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Unfortunately, it’s tough to know whether these specific things should be attributed to low crowds, or something else. (In the case of the Citizens of Hollywood, it could very well be short-term opex savings in advance of Galaxy’s Edge, which will receive a reallocated streetmosphere budget from other parts of DHS.)
The only anomaly in terms of crowds was the Halloween Party. As noted in our Photos & Report: 2018 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party post, the night we attended was the most-crowded we’ve seen in years, and that includes parties later in September and even October.
The best explanation we can muster for this contrast to daytime crowds is that having only one party per week at the beginning of the season, coupled with those being among the few discounted parties for Cast Members, led to a concentration of guests at the early-season parties.
It would seem this theory holds at least some water, as we’ve spoken with people who have attended subsequent Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties, and they’ve reported moderate crowds at worst. Now that there are multiple parties per week, per party attendance appears to be decreasing.
As for causes of the overall slower fall off-season this year at Walt Disney World, we think there are a few possibilities. One is that people are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. We’ve heard a lot of chatter about this, and while we think this is occurring, the prevalence of the occurrence is probably overstated. This type of thing isn’t even on the radar of a casual tourist, as there is no marketing for Galaxy’s Edge through mainstream channels.
On the other hand, we could absolutely see more knowledgeable Walt Disney World regulars who visit biennially delaying their visits from this year until next. However, we don’t really think this amounts to a huge number of people postponing visits that would otherwise occur this September.
Another possibility is that Hurricane Irma scared a lot of people. The closure of Walt Disney World during the storm made headlines in the national media, and the after-effects of last year’s hurricane season has remained in the news since, so this could still be in the forefront of people’s minds when thinking about when to book.
We’ve noticed a lot more awareness and trepidation about hurricane season–to the point that I’d go as far as to say this fear is causing more people to delay trips than Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Still, I don’t think this accounts for huge numbers of people postponing their vacations.
One final possibility is that Toy Story Land marketing and grand opening media coverage was ineffective at enticing people to book trips to Walt Disney World. I find this plausible, but I’m not sure to what degree it’s accurate.
I don’t know what internal expectations were for Toy Story Land, but the land did not meet my personal expectations in terms of what it’d do for wait times at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. We did rope drop and evenings a few different days at Disney’s Hollywood Studios during our trip, and I was frankly surprised at the lack of crowds.
If you told me in May that Slinky Dog Dash would have lower waits than Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster at various points of the day come September, I never would’ve believed you.
One thing we don’t attribute this to is pricing. Eventually, we do think Walt Disney World’s constant price increases and nickel and diming initiatives are going to cause problems–both short term and long term, but that time is not yet.
Consumer confidence hit record levels in August, an upward trend that has continued pretty much unabated for the last several years. So long as people have a positive perception of the economy (which is what this statistic measures), they will continue with healthy spending on things like travel and leisure.
This remains true even as U.S. credit card debt eclipses $1 trillion and household debt has hit $13.3 trillion–both record highs. Again, we think that eventually this will cause issues for Walt Disney World, but not until there’s an economic correction or recession. At which time this crippling debt coupled with the perception of Walt Disney World’s high prices might be too much even for aggressive discounting and shiny new attractions to overcome.
There you have it…a bunch of theories and non-theories, each of which could be playing slight roles, but nothing that’s likely moving the needle on crowds considerably in isolation. I wish I had a better explanation, but I don’t. (I’m eager to hear plausible theories you might have.)
So, what does all of this mean for the future? Honestly, we think it’s too early to tell. For one, we still expect October to have the kind of heavy crowds that have been present the last few years. That’s no longer a surprise, it’s the new normal. Hotel availability has been minimal for some October travel dates for months, and although there have been scattered Priceline deals for October, they’re not nearly what was available for September.
There are pockets of November and December that could be a different story. Mid-November has been hit or miss the last couple of years, and the same can be said for early to mid-December. However, even a slower than normal holiday season wouldn’t necessarily be a red flag.
If one of the causes of this slowdown is Walt Disney World regulars postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, that would apply equally to November, December…and every month for the next year. What it would tell us is that hurricane season didn’t have a significant impact, and other factors could be at play.
Ultimately, we have the observation that this fall has been quieter than normal at Walt Disney World, which isn’t just a “theory,” it’s definitely true. Beyond that, we have a bunch of plausible explanations for why this has occurred, but nothing definitive. We also have what it could mean for the future, but also nothing definitive. That’s a lot of uncertainty for what could be an isolated lull in crowds, and not part of a greater trend. Still, hopefully you found this rambling discussion at least mildly interesting.
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Your Thoughts
If you’ve visited in the last few weeks, have you noticed the lower crowds? Did your hotel feel similarly like a ghost town? Do you agree or disagree with our possible explanations? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Yes, please do a post on finding hotel deals? Can you still find them 60 days in advance to take advantage of the fast pass+ perks?
Personally I hope the low crowds are just a return to normal.
I did find this interesting. It is also interesting that we are on our way down before a Disney cruise and for three days we’ve opted not to buy park tickets because of the price. We have time share, DVC, so our resort room is covered already.
I wonder how much the expansion of DCL factors into wdw attendance. Anecdotally I know many people who are more interested in DCL, which seems to be the in thing at the moment.
Since you mentioned Disney Cruise Line I actually just finished a 7 day cruise on Saturday the 15th and the ship was noticably quiet.
Elevators were easy to get, pool was usually pretty empty, some of the dining rooms seemed like only every other table was occupied. It was busy … But nothing like our previous cruises.
Disney Cruise Line has also been offering some of its deepest last-minute discounts in years, and they still are having trouble filling the ships, so I don’t think people doing DCL instead explains this.
Hello!
I live in Tampa and go frequently to all the parks. Yesterday we had out of town company so of course we took them to the happiest place on Earth!
We spent the day at Magic Kingdom and I was amazed how uncrowded it was. We stood in line no longer than 20 minutes all day with most waits only being 10 minutes. Space Mountain, Toy Story, Speedway, Teacups, Jungle Ride, were all 10 minutes. Snow White’s Mine ride was 70 minutes. Normally that would be no big deal but with everything else moving so quickly we didn’t do it.
Although it was HOT, it was a wonderful day. I’m loving the smaller crowds! If you keep telling everyone it will get busier! Lol
Hi Tom!
I think you have hit on a lot of good points. I think for regulars, locals and anual passholders, the construction is a nightmare. Even with Toy Storyland, Hollywood Studios is a half day park.
I have also noticed a lot fewer foreign groups. There haven’t been the huge groups from Brazil or Columbia or Argentina. Venezuala is expected. They HAVE had an increase in European guests, but no where near the number of our South American friends.
The wait for Galazy’s Edge is definitely affecting the once in a lifetime guests. Add Magic Kindgom’s 50th and that becomes a crazy year.
Lastly, prices. I have heard a theory that Disney is looking for that happy median where the prices balance the profits with crowds. I don’t know if there is any validity in that, but personally, I would pay $10 more to have the crowds they had this last month.
Love your articles. And thanks for the beautiful pictures.
I agree that there isn’t one thing to point at if levels are decreasing right now. But with all the increases in pricing and Nickle and dimming that Disney has imposed I see that being the main downfall Disney has on the horizon. For instance my parents which are DVC members just spent 7 days in DVC resort last week and only went to Epcot 1 day. They used up last of some old tickets and with the higher prices they decided to take this trip as a relaxation trip and enjoy the resorts and pools and Disney Springs. They have been annual pass holders for 5 out of last 7 years. They did not renew this year. I am not saying this is the norm by far but every time someone passes because of price like they did then Disney has less people in the parks.
I also have a friend that is going in 2 weeks that booked before the parking fees were put in place.
They said after this time they are rethinking going every year. Maybe going every 2-3 years. If that becomes a thing regular Disney guest start or cutting back in any way it is bound to show sooner or later.
As for me I would average 3 trips a year.
We used to go to disney and get 10 day non expiration tickets and it would not cost a fortune as It does today. Now days I can take my family out of the county for the same cost as visiting Disney. ITs not a cheap vacation anymore so we are traveling other places where as 6-7 years ago it would have been cheaper to go to Disney’. THat could be a factor no one is talking about. It’s not that I can’t afford the prices but it’s what else can I do for the same price Disney is now costing. I am going on vacation but the question is Disney the place I continue to go as mush as in the past?
I said the same thing in a separate post below. The price for the parks is just way too high. Disney has to realize that people do not want to drop $100+/person for their parks. Charging people over $100 to take a child younger than 10 into Disney is criminal. If they want to fill the park they should drop the price of kids.
I’ve been doing what your parents did for years now, where I’ll stay at a nice Disney resort for 4-5 days and hit only one park (usually a Christmas Party), plus Disney Springs once or twice. My kids are completely happy with this and love swimming in the pool all day at the resort. We go about once a year and try to hit the Christmas party the week after Thanksgiving (pulling our kids out of school) to avoid crowds. We’ll stay at a resort, hit a party and relax. About 5 years ago we hit two parks, Disney Springs, and a Christmas party and it was exhausting.
Bundling multiple days to make it cheaper doesn’t help because parents don’t want to go to a park every day of their visit (anyone with kids knows how tiring it is). And I’m typing this as a fit American (a rarity today) I can only imagine how someone out of shape does it.
As an AP living in Orlando, the parks have been a ghost town in general since Apil ended. Not just August either. July was slower in my opinion. Last year this time, it was way busier. I remember a few years ago, the average park close at MK used to be 11 or midnight with emh lasting long after regularly. Now fireworks are earlier and hours are shorter. A 10 pm park MK close is late in comparison to what the new normal is. The concept of a busy time doesn’t exist anymore with a few random exceptions. I think that the average Disney guest has gotten wiser and the tiered ticketing have had the most impact. Why would a guest come in Summer when it’s supposedly “busy”, hot and, more expensive when they could come in February when it’s cheaper and cooler? This was Disney’s goal with the tiered tickets but, I think it worked a little too well. I don’t think Disney expected it to disrupt crowds like it has either.
With prices exploding at Disney, the CEO making 450 M per year , I think my family will reassess a vacation plan for next year. Last year we stayed Ft Wilderness , we paid 3600.00 for 2 for 8 days , tickets and a meal plan .This year at Port Orleans same package is 4400 .00
They were opening up time shares at the hotel . This year the room we wanted,same as last year was 21K
Hugh increase over what we paid the previous year
18K more …..lol.
Next year it will be a cruise on disny
Tom, I would love to hear about Disney Resorts on Priceline tips. I have never used Priceline and I had no idea you can book Walt Disney World Resorts through Priceline. My family’s next trip is July 2019 & I hope the lighter crowds persist through summer 2019. I do think many people are waiting for Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge. I love your blog. Thank you!
Carol- I totally agree with you, would love to hear more about booking through Priceline, didn’t realize that was an option!
As a travel consultant, I’ve had many potential clients tell me they want to wait “until all the new stuff is done”–meaning Galaxy’s Edge. I really do think that is a factor. However, same people also say they want to avoid crowds, not realizing that you’ll probably have to wait at least 2-3 years before Galaxy’s Edge is manageable in terms of crowds (without buying any type of upsell package.) It will be interesting!
It’s hot, crowded, expensive, and you might get hit by a hurricane. What’s not to love?
We were there labour day week. We’ve been going that same week since 2014, when we switched from last week of January. 2014 was extremely light and I loved it. The following years got more and more crowded. Last year we had to leave early and drive home because of Irma. Our flights were canceled and couldn’t be rebooked. We almost didn’t book a trip this year because we were afraid of another hurricane.
I first noticed the lack of crowds this year on the flight to Orlando. It was a Southwest flight with 60 empty seats. I don’t think that has ever happened. My sister said her flight from Toronto was also mostly empty.
We started our trip at Universal and didn’t get to Disney until Monday night. All four of our park days were wonderful. I kept saying that it was “2014 empty”. We rode space mountain at the end of the night and there wasn’t anyone else in the entire queue. In all my years at Disney I’ve never had that happen.
I think for us the constant price increases with decrease in service and last year’s weather were the two main reasons we almost didn’t go back this year. I’m glad we did go but I’m not expecting it to ever be that empty again.
This makes me super excited because we’re going next week!!!! I know it’ll be hot , and i never liked crowds, so having lower than normal crowds will help me deal with the heat better.
My last visit was August 8-18th. We stayed at BRV, BWV, and two nights for cheap at the French Quarter. I thought crowds were very moderate. It was hot, and seemed to rain every afternoon. Even when it wasn’t raining, the pool would close because of nearby lightening. We have AP this year and since we were at Disney for 10 days, we had a very relaxing vacation. However, August just isn’t a great month to go to Disney. Perhaps last years Hurricane scared people off, or just that sweltering heat, but if I was planning a once a year trip to Disney, it wouldn’t be August. September is out for school age children. What I did notice was the tremendous about of people from Great Britain. I kept thinking that they must get a tremendous deal to vacation at Disney. I noticed that the AP entrance areas weren’t very busy at all compared to early April when I was there. Toy Story Land is just too hot to enjoy in August. We just did a few rides and left that area. AK is another park that is too hot in the summer. We spent only a few hours in that park. Unlike other times of years, Epcot doesn’t have a fun festival, and there’s not much of a draw at the other parks. Most people I talk with who like Disney would never go in August. They couldn’t understand why I was going. If not for having an AP, I wouldn’t have gone. I think the substantial price increases have had an impact on people. I’m fairly frugal with my spending, rarely do the character dinners or table service restaurants. If I was spending$5k on a vacation, I wouldn’t go in August. I really don’t think there’s a “Trump Slump”. For as many that are offended by him, there’s just as many that support his policies. I don’t think the president is a huge factor in how most families plan their vacation. I think it will be interesting to see if more middle class families spend their tax cut savings in 2018 on a 2019 vacation. Perhaps numbers could go up then if they end up with more disposable income. Who knows! I like traveling to Florida in November, February, and April. I think the winter months will continue to see an increase in travelers.
As for the MK party nights, I went in early December on a Sunday night and it was packed. It cost my family $500, and I didn’t feel it was worth it. I love the party, but with the cost increasing yearly and bigger crowds, we’re not going this year.
Hey Tom,
(Long time listener, first time ‘caller’)
My family visited mid August for 2 weeks. (As Canadians, this is our go-to time based on crowds, cost, and it’s before our kids start school) We found the first week to be relatively crowded (similar to other years) but the second week to be much lighter than in the past.
The reason we didn’t book bounce back during our stay (great advice btw!) was the construction…. ….EVERYWHERE. It seems like there were massive projects around each corner. It was too much. I get that there is a push to complete these projects by 2019-2021, and look forward to the additions, but we plan to delay future visits until the construction appears to taper off.
I would love to see a post on Priceline discount strategies. If I could find a moderate for that low I might be able to squeeze in one more trip before my AP expires.
Download the google chrome extension “hotel canary”. After you click on the hotel your interested in bonnet creek or disney springs, click on the extension button and it will reveal the secret hotel.
Great tip-thanks!
Agreed. Please write a post on how to get a Disney hotel via Priceline. I had no idea you could even book a Disney hotel via Priceline!!!
As Canadians who normally love to visit Disney, two things are negatively affecting our decision to visit this year: hurricane season and Donald Trump. Trump was also responsible for our decision to cancel a Lake Superior Circle Tour, we’ll be spending our money in Canada.
Didn’t think of that while writing this, but that’s another plausible explanation.
For those who might take issue with this being “too political” please note that there has been a quantified, precipitous drop in foreign travel to the United States that has been dubbed the “Trump Slump.” More info: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lealane/2018/08/07/share-of-u-s-international-travel-drops-sharply-the-trump-slump/#1249d1b44d30
I would hesitate before attributing too much of this to the POTUS, as last year’s decline was larger than this year’s. However, given the larger-than-average lead time for booking a Walt Disney World vacation, I think it makes sense to see a bigger impact in 2018 than last year for WDW, specifically.
Hi Tom,
Remove my comment if it is considered too political. But many Canadians feel the same way.
We crossed the border to see the Henry Ford Museum last year and the border guards were noticeably different than in prior years, far more aggressive. We’re a couple of seniors and hardly a threat to national security, but were pulled over and searched and treated like criminals. We attributed this bully mentality to Trump. It has affected future plans to travel to the US.
It’s also much more expensive now.
@LP – Your comment is not too political. Irrespective of your personal feelings, this is a quantifiable trend with foreign travel to the U.S. declining, and as such, it’s something worth discussing. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. 🙂
That’s absolute nonsense! You’re afraid to come here and spend money because of a President? Seriously? Under our last President we had cities having race riots but you’re now afraid? The US is a giant place don’t let one person stop you.
Disney is a private run company. Don’t be silly.
You can say what you want, and I’m no Trump fan but the economy in the US is booming, unemployment is way down (50 year lows), and people have more money in the pockets (tax cuts).
Oh and please don’t bring politics into this blog! This supposed to be about the happiest place on earth! 🙂
Politics affects what happens at borders, and if people from other countries are treated poorly or aggressively, or made to feel unsafe, at American borders, that will affect their willingness to return.
Also, there is a difference between a protest and a riot.
@Ithaca NY Guy, it’s not a matter of being afraid. It’s the insults that are directed at Canadians and other nationalities, the tariffs, the whole offensive mentality. It’s anything but silly and it’s very real.
Do you think that there are ever “slower than normal” holiday season? Esp between Christmas and New Years?
It’s too early to say for sure. I will say that I’d be more surprised if it’s as busy or busier than normal than if it’s slower than normal. It’ll still be busy during that week, but it’s all relative.
We try to go to Disney world every year and because of the GBP exchange rate prices for the British are extortionate so maybe there is a large drop in British visitors. We have booked for next year at CBR our favourite but it is a big increase in price. This will be our last visit far too expensive now
really makes you think that if Galaxy’s Edge isn’t a home run, which projects currently in development will be cut altogether. Lower attendance, less than stellar return on projects, and a likely market correction in the next year, could make for a rough 2019 for Disneyworld.
Given that we are in for a market correction at minimum before 2021, I too am curious about what projects could get cancelled. There is a lot in development for Epcot that has yet to be announced, and while neither of the two big attractions are going to get cancelled, the Future World redesign and other projects there could.
The other thing I could really see stalling is hotel development. Again, what’s being built right now is safe, but the River Country DVC and Epcot resorts aren’t.
Personally, I think Walt Disney World is in for tough times during the next recession. The rate of price increases and upcharges have alienated some longtime, loyal customers, and led to plenty of negative press, creating the perception that Walt Disney World is a ‘premium-priced’ vacation destination, rather than something for all middle class families. I think that image could cause problems.
I’m curious about how the next market correction will affect the parks, but at the same time I’m expecting the Disney Movie Studios to have a massive record breaking year in 2019. The slate of movies coming out next year for Disney is nuts.
My question, is there any correlation in your opinion from Disney box office revenue to that money being used in the parks?
(I don’t think I worded this very well, but hope I got the general idea across)
We just got home from a weeklong stay at Caribbean Beach on Thursday. The resort buses were rarely full, the resorts were very quiet and the parks were so manageable. The exception was the Halloween party in September 9th. It was my third party over the years and the earliest one in the season out of the three I have attended. It was so crowded. To give some perspective we were at Food and Wine on Friday night and it felt less crowded than the Sunday night party. It was so disappointed. It was hard to get much accomplished in the way of rides. In the past we walked on rides without a wait and this was not the case at all this time. I had read that they stop ticket sales at a certain number. I don’t believe that at all any longer. I won’t ever pay $75 to fight bigger crowds than we saw the rest of the week
Tom, I was just at Caribbean Beach the week after Labor Day and agree with your perceptions of crowds. That Friday at Magic Kingdom was the lightest crowds I had ever seen. 5 minute waits at Splash Mt in the afternoon at 90 degrees was very strange. My take, besides normal start-of-school lull, would be all the news about construction. Almost every report right now has some sort of construction update. I think the general publics is hearing so much about construction that maybe they are tentative to pull the trigger until some of the construction is completed. I only booked Caribbean Beach (even after reading your update this summer) because the room was very discounted (well over $100 lower than normal). I have to say, I really enjoyed the trip and lighter crowds.
News about construction could explain some of it, but that’s mostly on WDW fan sites like this one, not the national media (or even more mainstream travel sites like Travel & Leisure), and I think most people don’t come to sites like this one until they’ve already booked trips. Many people don’t use this type of resource until they are actually on their trip.