All Quiet on the Off-Season at Disney World Front
Walt Disney World crowd trends have been quirky the last few years, which is something to which we’ve paid close attention. Last year, we wrote Summer is No Longer Peak Season at Disney World. Another post from early this year asked the titular question, Is There an Off-Season at Disney World? Well, if our August & September experience was any indication, we can answer that with an emphatic YES!
We originally weren’t going to write about our experience with lower-than-normal crowds, because it’s not exactly breaking news or a splashy story. Unlike light summer crowds, sky-high October occupancy (both of which are now the new normal), or heavy January/February crowds (the jury is still out on whether this continues–we’re betting on no), this isn’t totally abnormal. August and September have been among the lightest months of the year for a long time, so some of this could be written off as much ado about nothing.
To be sure, we’re not suggesting this is some huge story, a harbinger that Walt Disney World is in serious trouble, or sign that prices have gone too much and too many potential guests are being priced out. Honestly, we don’t think it’s any of those things. In this post, we’ll discuss the signs of a quieter than normal off-season at Walt Disney World, what we think is causing this, and what it could mean for the future…
The first sign of a quiet occupancy is hotel occupancy. With schools going back into session, fall has traditionally been a slower time of year for on-property hotels at Walt Disney World, which is why the Free Dining promotion was created years ago, in the first place.
Even calling this promotion wildly successful at filling hotel rooms would be an understatement. Free Dining has propped up occupancy and created a ton of demand for fall. Last year, even despite Hurricane Irma, domestic hotel occupancy was at 84% for this quarter, which is healthy (and even that was down 3% year over year).
This year, we spoke with a few Cast Members at the resorts who noted things were slower than normal, with not nearly as many “full” nights. Perhaps more interestingly, we heard indirectly that Cast Members working guest recovery at Caribbean Beach were having no issues moving people to other resorts–that availability was pretty much wide open.
As for us, every resort we stayed or visited this trip was dead. I’m not one to extrapolate too much from anecdotal observations, but Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs, Yacht & Beach Club, and both Port Orleans Resorts were veritable ghost towns during the time we spent at each. Even Stormalong Bay was uncrowded–and it was hot out!
We started our trip with a couple nights at Port Orleans French Quarter, and our room was ready before 9 a.m. via online check-in. In the past we’ve had luck arriving on a red-eye flight and going to the front desk to inquire about any open rooms, but we didn’t talk to anyone this time. Likewise, the pools and food courts were quiet each time we passed by them.
Even during off-season, this was mildly surprising. We figured Port Orleans French Quarter might see an influx of bargain-seekers like us who found it via Priceline Express Deals for ~$100/night. That’s not a typo–Port Orleans French Quarter was available for most of August and September, with many nights right at $100.
French Quarter was not the only Walt Disney World hotel listed on Priceline for September travel dates. Polynesian, Swan & Dolphin, Fort Wilderness, and Riverside have also been available–and those are just the ones of which I’m aware. For what it’s worth, finding Walt Disney World resorts on Priceline or other ‘blind deal’ sites is not unprecedented, but deals this good are rarer. (Look for a post on this topic coming soon.)
As for the theme parks, this is the least busy trip we’ve taken in a good 3-4 years. As noted in our Magic Kingdom Construction Update, we saw Space Mountain with a 15-minute posted wait midday, and that’s just the start of it. Many attractions had low wait times–seeing Frozen Ever After around 30 minutes was not uncommon, and that held true even once Epcot’s Food & Wine Festival started.
Generally speaking, the parks felt less congested, too. The only real exception to this was Epcot at the start of Food & Wine, but that’s always the case. Our experience would seem to be corroborated by an update from WDWMagic indicating that various areas are being requested to trim back labor costs due to unexpectedly soft attendance.
In the last couple days, we’ve now heard reports that several areas of entertainment are being scaled back, most notably with the Citizens of Hollywood at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Unfortunately, it’s tough to know whether these specific things should be attributed to low crowds, or something else. (In the case of the Citizens of Hollywood, it could very well be short-term opex savings in advance of Galaxy’s Edge, which will receive a reallocated streetmosphere budget from other parts of DHS.)
The only anomaly in terms of crowds was the Halloween Party. As noted in our Photos & Report: 2018 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party post, the night we attended was the most-crowded we’ve seen in years, and that includes parties later in September and even October.
The best explanation we can muster for this contrast to daytime crowds is that having only one party per week at the beginning of the season, coupled with those being among the few discounted parties for Cast Members, led to a concentration of guests at the early-season parties.
It would seem this theory holds at least some water, as we’ve spoken with people who have attended subsequent Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties, and they’ve reported moderate crowds at worst. Now that there are multiple parties per week, per party attendance appears to be decreasing.
As for causes of the overall slower fall off-season this year at Walt Disney World, we think there are a few possibilities. One is that people are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. We’ve heard a lot of chatter about this, and while we think this is occurring, the prevalence of the occurrence is probably overstated. This type of thing isn’t even on the radar of a casual tourist, as there is no marketing for Galaxy’s Edge through mainstream channels.
On the other hand, we could absolutely see more knowledgeable Walt Disney World regulars who visit biennially delaying their visits from this year until next. However, we don’t really think this amounts to a huge number of people postponing visits that would otherwise occur this September.
Another possibility is that Hurricane Irma scared a lot of people. The closure of Walt Disney World during the storm made headlines in the national media, and the after-effects of last year’s hurricane season has remained in the news since, so this could still be in the forefront of people’s minds when thinking about when to book.
We’ve noticed a lot more awareness and trepidation about hurricane season–to the point that I’d go as far as to say this fear is causing more people to delay trips than Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Still, I don’t think this accounts for huge numbers of people postponing their vacations.
One final possibility is that Toy Story Land marketing and grand opening media coverage was ineffective at enticing people to book trips to Walt Disney World. I find this plausible, but I’m not sure to what degree it’s accurate.
I don’t know what internal expectations were for Toy Story Land, but the land did not meet my personal expectations in terms of what it’d do for wait times at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. We did rope drop and evenings a few different days at Disney’s Hollywood Studios during our trip, and I was frankly surprised at the lack of crowds.
If you told me in May that Slinky Dog Dash would have lower waits than Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster at various points of the day come September, I never would’ve believed you.
One thing we don’t attribute this to is pricing. Eventually, we do think Walt Disney World’s constant price increases and nickel and diming initiatives are going to cause problems–both short term and long term, but that time is not yet.
Consumer confidence hit record levels in August, an upward trend that has continued pretty much unabated for the last several years. So long as people have a positive perception of the economy (which is what this statistic measures), they will continue with healthy spending on things like travel and leisure.
This remains true even as U.S. credit card debt eclipses $1 trillion and household debt has hit $13.3 trillion–both record highs. Again, we think that eventually this will cause issues for Walt Disney World, but not until there’s an economic correction or recession. At which time this crippling debt coupled with the perception of Walt Disney World’s high prices might be too much even for aggressive discounting and shiny new attractions to overcome.
There you have it…a bunch of theories and non-theories, each of which could be playing slight roles, but nothing that’s likely moving the needle on crowds considerably in isolation. I wish I had a better explanation, but I don’t. (I’m eager to hear plausible theories you might have.)
So, what does all of this mean for the future? Honestly, we think it’s too early to tell. For one, we still expect October to have the kind of heavy crowds that have been present the last few years. That’s no longer a surprise, it’s the new normal. Hotel availability has been minimal for some October travel dates for months, and although there have been scattered Priceline deals for October, they’re not nearly what was available for September.
There are pockets of November and December that could be a different story. Mid-November has been hit or miss the last couple of years, and the same can be said for early to mid-December. However, even a slower than normal holiday season wouldn’t necessarily be a red flag.
If one of the causes of this slowdown is Walt Disney World regulars postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, that would apply equally to November, December…and every month for the next year. What it would tell us is that hurricane season didn’t have a significant impact, and other factors could be at play.
Ultimately, we have the observation that this fall has been quieter than normal at Walt Disney World, which isn’t just a “theory,” it’s definitely true. Beyond that, we have a bunch of plausible explanations for why this has occurred, but nothing definitive. We also have what it could mean for the future, but also nothing definitive. That’s a lot of uncertainty for what could be an isolated lull in crowds, and not part of a greater trend. Still, hopefully you found this rambling discussion at least mildly interesting.
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Your Thoughts
If you’ve visited in the last few weeks, have you noticed the lower crowds? Did your hotel feel similarly like a ghost town? Do you agree or disagree with our possible explanations? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I’ve heard that there is a large cheerleader convention the first week of December. Have you been there during that time frame? How much do crowds increase that week? We want to go that week but will skip it if the crowds increase substantially due to their visit.
That’s Pop Warner, and it *can* cause surges in crowds in the parks (particularly if you get stuck behind a large group of under-supervised teens in line), but the impact on overall crowds is negligible.
I would recommend avoiding the All Star Resorts, Caribbean Beach, and Coronado that week. Those are the resorts that are part of the Pop Warner package, and they can have a bigger impact on the hotels–primarily in terms of staying up late and being loud.
There are a variety of reasons that we are putting off our visit. We used to go annually, and had a huge trip planned fall before last that was canceled due to Hurricane Matthew and Zika. We ended up going to the Smoky Mountains in Tennessee and staying at Dollywood’s new Dream More resort, which, for the ambience, price, and hospitality, turned out to be a clear winner for us and we have now gone there twice a year instead (even when Dollywood has been closed) for well less than what we pay for one trip to Disney (this also leaves money to go to Great Wolf Lodge and Colonial Williamsburg for a few weeknights a few times a year- again, all of these trips combined cost less than a week in a value resort at Disney, with no hurricane risk).
Another reason is construction- we originally went ahead and booked for this winter after all, then CSR resort was slated for a construction after we had already booked. Also, so many things look like they will be closed, and with two kids with special needs, it would be better to wait until more things were more likely to be open; also we have concerns that the construction may take away from the “magic.”
There’s also the Hall of Presidents- it’s actually one of my older child’s favorite attractions- but we just aren’t ready to deal with the “new addition” yet.
We are going for a Disney Cruise in February- but even though we are going to be in the area before and after the trip for several days, we are not buying park tickets due to the cost. We are already reconsidering staying on site due to the new resort parking fees. (While it is an expensive trip, this is the first time we have felt that WDW has really started “nickle and diming.” )
With higher costs coupled with declining service/hours/ambience etc. there may be only one or two visits left in our future, whereas there used to be one or two visits a year.
TL;DR: high costs, other vacation options, hurricanes, construction, HoP, nickle and diming.
I would also love to hear your strategies for using Priceline or similar website to find Disney deals. We typically rent DVC points, but I’m willing to try something like Priceline, if I knew a good strategy.
Great article, btw! Interesting things to consider.
We were there Labor Day week staying off property and We also noticed it was pretty empty comparabably although Mornings still felt busy. That Thursday I could get any dinner res I wanted, California grill,
Ohana, we went with The Plaza. The MK had an abundance of fastpasses on the app and for the first time in forever I enjoyed fireworks without feeling totally jammed in. We had a trip last year the week of Irma And had to push back a few days so kinda laughed Thinking of all the anxiety we had just a year ago over going, but had an awesome time this year.
Yes, please info from your priceline/hotwire strategies. I looked into it some last year when they (first?) ventured there but nothing lined up with my travel dates.
“Much adieu about nothing” should be “much ado about nothing”…unless it was a specific play on words (which really doesn’t make sense). “Much GOODBYE about nothing?” Nope.
Yes…let’s go with it being a play on words and not a boneheaded mistake on my part.
(Thanks for the heads up.)
Thank goodness for the grammar police- NOT! Thanks for another great article which helps us with planning our trips to WDW!
William Shakespeare turns in his grave
My anecdote — I wanted a late September Disney trip to celebrate my daughter’s birthday. Even two years ago when I was planning for this trip, I didn’t want to go to Florida. Hurricanes are a possibility, but also just steamy weather and showers and that was a turn off. We are going to DLR for the first time and we’re so excited! Thank you for your guides on your site. Very helpful.
I hope the lower crowd trend continues in late January. It’ll be my first trip and I would love to see it with less chaos!
Just curious what you think mid November crowds will be like? My husband and I are going on a 4 night get away and hoping it’ll be slow since we won’t have a long time to explore like we have in the past. But since we are going without kids I’m guessing it’ll be a different vacation all together. We are at BWV nov 12-16. Can’t wait!!
We were there from Sept 1st-9th, and stayed in Art of Animation – the daily crowds at the parks weren’t bad, overall was about what we expected. Like you, we did see some of the waits for the more popular rides down some, as in Frozen @ 30 minutes a couple times (and as you alluded to, this was right in the middle of the Food & Wine Festival). I will say Toy Story Land was extremely crowded both days we went (once on Sunday and then on Saturday, which could account for a lot of that), and the lowest Slinky Dog wait we saw for standby was still over an hour. (We had a FP for it, and it was awesome….)
The main reason I’m replying is this: we did the Halloween party on Friday night (the 7th) and it was absolutely packed. As in, so packed it really wasn’t fun. This was our second time doing the Halloween party and likely our last – I really hate to be negative, but in my opinion the crowds in conjunction with the fact that there just really isn’t that much “extra” stuff during the party make the price not worth it. The 3 ride add-ons are minimal (a couple pirate actors on Pirates / lasers on the Teacups / Space Mountain with lights off – those are the only 3 that I know of anyway, correct me if i’m wrong) and though the firework show and Villains parade are cool, they’re not earth-shattering by any means.
Honestly curious about other people’s view of the Halloween party? Am I being too cynical / expecting too much? For my family of 3, it’s a considerable almost-$300 addition to the trip, so though both years we have had a good time, we’ve come away somewhat disappointed. It would be different if they limited the tickets more along the lines of Extra Magic Hours, but in our experience the Halloween party is considerably MORE crowded than the normal day in the park right now.
Would love to hear about your strategy for Priceline deals, anytime I have checked I haven’t found rates any lower than any offered WDW discount.
Wow, we must have missed the low crowds on Sept. 13–evening at both HS and Epcot. We didn’t stay long but had elbow to elbow people. The queues for bus travel from Epcot to HS were 3-bus loads. The boats queues back to Epcot held 2-boat loads. We found several large (at least 50 people per tour groups). We had stayed onsite the week before and found mostly low crowds–as anticipated. Fortunately, we’re locals so we can visit/leave on our schedules. I always appreciate your info/insight–read everything and totally agree about the perceived economic situation. @LP, we have very good friends outside of Toronto, and they agree.
I’d love to see a post about Priceline deals!
Would love to see a post about the Priceline deals. Anything on resort discounts is always helpful!
I suppose Florence caused a temporary spike this past week. We arrived Wednesday and found the parks and Riverside more crowded than they were in June. It seems that every person we spoke to in line was from SC or NC.
Whatever the reason, be it Galaxy’s Edge, construction, prices / upcharges, weather, trump slump… I hope the lower crowds continue through spring break 2019. I doubt it will, but a boy can dream, right? My family is trying to fit in one last visit before SWGE madness descends upon WDW. To make matters worse for this trip, we are not able to visit during our normal time in early May and are forced to visit mid April during spring break. I have heard and read some really horrible stories about spring break and I REALLY hope we can sneak in one last visit before we take a few years off.
OK…its all about PRICE folks…a family of four for a trip to DW…could be close to 7,000 to 10,000 for a week..people just dont have that kind of mony nowdays….and with the news that wages for ”cast characters”..(which they deserve)….last I read a park was 125 per park to enter..IMAGINE, how much it will be next year??? I predict…200 dollars by 2020…make note…don’t get me wrong …I LOVE disney world, but they need to remember who is paying the bills here…absorb some of the cost of operating(I know its a lot of money to run the place), at least for a few years. ITs the same everywhere, as you know Universal will raise prices as disney world does. Just my thoughts and thank you for allowing me to ”vent” here…JUST THINK OF us the buying public here is all I ask!!!
You didn’t touch on one thing.
HIGHER PRICES.
Disney keeps raising prices to get into parks. This has to be driving people away. Personally I love staying at their resorts for 3-4 days and hitting only one park per visit. I too was at the August 28th Halloween party and was shocked how crowded it was considering that it was raining, very hot and local schools were back in. I think people are starting to flock to these parties because so many have said how “uncrowded” the Magic Kingdom is during these parties.
We need to start spreading fake news that they are crowded to drive people away again! 🙂
OK…its all about PRICE folks…a family of four for a trip to DW…could be close to 7,000 to 10,000 for a week..people just dont have that kind of mony nowdays….and with the news that wages for ”cast characters”..(which they deserve)….last I read a park was 125 per park to enter..IMAGINE, how much it will be next year??? I predict…200 dollars by 2020…make note…don’t get me wrong …I LOVE disney world, but they need to remember who is paying the bills here…absorb some of the cost of operating(I know its a lot of money to run the place), at least for a few years. ITs the same everywhere, as you know Universal will raise prices as disney world does. Just my thoughts and thank you for allowing me to ”vent” here…JUST THINK OF us the buying public here is all I ask!!!