All Quiet on the Off-Season at Disney World Front
Walt Disney World crowd trends have been quirky the last few years, which is something to which we’ve paid close attention. Last year, we wrote Summer is No Longer Peak Season at Disney World. Another post from early this year asked the titular question, Is There an Off-Season at Disney World? Well, if our August & September experience was any indication, we can answer that with an emphatic YES!
We originally weren’t going to write about our experience with lower-than-normal crowds, because it’s not exactly breaking news or a splashy story. Unlike light summer crowds, sky-high October occupancy (both of which are now the new normal), or heavy January/February crowds (the jury is still out on whether this continues–we’re betting on no), this isn’t totally abnormal. August and September have been among the lightest months of the year for a long time, so some of this could be written off as much ado about nothing.
To be sure, we’re not suggesting this is some huge story, a harbinger that Walt Disney World is in serious trouble, or sign that prices have gone too much and too many potential guests are being priced out. Honestly, we don’t think it’s any of those things. In this post, we’ll discuss the signs of a quieter than normal off-season at Walt Disney World, what we think is causing this, and what it could mean for the future…
The first sign of a quiet occupancy is hotel occupancy. With schools going back into session, fall has traditionally been a slower time of year for on-property hotels at Walt Disney World, which is why the Free Dining promotion was created years ago, in the first place.
Even calling this promotion wildly successful at filling hotel rooms would be an understatement. Free Dining has propped up occupancy and created a ton of demand for fall. Last year, even despite Hurricane Irma, domestic hotel occupancy was at 84% for this quarter, which is healthy (and even that was down 3% year over year).
This year, we spoke with a few Cast Members at the resorts who noted things were slower than normal, with not nearly as many “full” nights. Perhaps more interestingly, we heard indirectly that Cast Members working guest recovery at Caribbean Beach were having no issues moving people to other resorts–that availability was pretty much wide open.
As for us, every resort we stayed or visited this trip was dead. I’m not one to extrapolate too much from anecdotal observations, but Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs, Yacht & Beach Club, and both Port Orleans Resorts were veritable ghost towns during the time we spent at each. Even Stormalong Bay was uncrowded–and it was hot out!
We started our trip with a couple nights at Port Orleans French Quarter, and our room was ready before 9 a.m. via online check-in. In the past we’ve had luck arriving on a red-eye flight and going to the front desk to inquire about any open rooms, but we didn’t talk to anyone this time. Likewise, the pools and food courts were quiet each time we passed by them.
Even during off-season, this was mildly surprising. We figured Port Orleans French Quarter might see an influx of bargain-seekers like us who found it via Priceline Express Deals for ~$100/night. That’s not a typo–Port Orleans French Quarter was available for most of August and September, with many nights right at $100.
French Quarter was not the only Walt Disney World hotel listed on Priceline for September travel dates. Polynesian, Swan & Dolphin, Fort Wilderness, and Riverside have also been available–and those are just the ones of which I’m aware. For what it’s worth, finding Walt Disney World resorts on Priceline or other ‘blind deal’ sites is not unprecedented, but deals this good are rarer. (Look for a post on this topic coming soon.)
As for the theme parks, this is the least busy trip we’ve taken in a good 3-4 years. As noted in our Magic Kingdom Construction Update, we saw Space Mountain with a 15-minute posted wait midday, and that’s just the start of it. Many attractions had low wait times–seeing Frozen Ever After around 30 minutes was not uncommon, and that held true even once Epcot’s Food & Wine Festival started.
Generally speaking, the parks felt less congested, too. The only real exception to this was Epcot at the start of Food & Wine, but that’s always the case. Our experience would seem to be corroborated by an update from WDWMagic indicating that various areas are being requested to trim back labor costs due to unexpectedly soft attendance.
In the last couple days, we’ve now heard reports that several areas of entertainment are being scaled back, most notably with the Citizens of Hollywood at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Unfortunately, it’s tough to know whether these specific things should be attributed to low crowds, or something else. (In the case of the Citizens of Hollywood, it could very well be short-term opex savings in advance of Galaxy’s Edge, which will receive a reallocated streetmosphere budget from other parts of DHS.)
The only anomaly in terms of crowds was the Halloween Party. As noted in our Photos & Report: 2018 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party post, the night we attended was the most-crowded we’ve seen in years, and that includes parties later in September and even October.
The best explanation we can muster for this contrast to daytime crowds is that having only one party per week at the beginning of the season, coupled with those being among the few discounted parties for Cast Members, led to a concentration of guests at the early-season parties.
It would seem this theory holds at least some water, as we’ve spoken with people who have attended subsequent Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties, and they’ve reported moderate crowds at worst. Now that there are multiple parties per week, per party attendance appears to be decreasing.
As for causes of the overall slower fall off-season this year at Walt Disney World, we think there are a few possibilities. One is that people are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. We’ve heard a lot of chatter about this, and while we think this is occurring, the prevalence of the occurrence is probably overstated. This type of thing isn’t even on the radar of a casual tourist, as there is no marketing for Galaxy’s Edge through mainstream channels.
On the other hand, we could absolutely see more knowledgeable Walt Disney World regulars who visit biennially delaying their visits from this year until next. However, we don’t really think this amounts to a huge number of people postponing visits that would otherwise occur this September.
Another possibility is that Hurricane Irma scared a lot of people. The closure of Walt Disney World during the storm made headlines in the national media, and the after-effects of last year’s hurricane season has remained in the news since, so this could still be in the forefront of people’s minds when thinking about when to book.
We’ve noticed a lot more awareness and trepidation about hurricane season–to the point that I’d go as far as to say this fear is causing more people to delay trips than Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Still, I don’t think this accounts for huge numbers of people postponing their vacations.
One final possibility is that Toy Story Land marketing and grand opening media coverage was ineffective at enticing people to book trips to Walt Disney World. I find this plausible, but I’m not sure to what degree it’s accurate.
I don’t know what internal expectations were for Toy Story Land, but the land did not meet my personal expectations in terms of what it’d do for wait times at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. We did rope drop and evenings a few different days at Disney’s Hollywood Studios during our trip, and I was frankly surprised at the lack of crowds.
If you told me in May that Slinky Dog Dash would have lower waits than Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster at various points of the day come September, I never would’ve believed you.
One thing we don’t attribute this to is pricing. Eventually, we do think Walt Disney World’s constant price increases and nickel and diming initiatives are going to cause problems–both short term and long term, but that time is not yet.
Consumer confidence hit record levels in August, an upward trend that has continued pretty much unabated for the last several years. So long as people have a positive perception of the economy (which is what this statistic measures), they will continue with healthy spending on things like travel and leisure.
This remains true even as U.S. credit card debt eclipses $1 trillion and household debt has hit $13.3 trillion–both record highs. Again, we think that eventually this will cause issues for Walt Disney World, but not until there’s an economic correction or recession. At which time this crippling debt coupled with the perception of Walt Disney World’s high prices might be too much even for aggressive discounting and shiny new attractions to overcome.
There you have it…a bunch of theories and non-theories, each of which could be playing slight roles, but nothing that’s likely moving the needle on crowds considerably in isolation. I wish I had a better explanation, but I don’t. (I’m eager to hear plausible theories you might have.)
So, what does all of this mean for the future? Honestly, we think it’s too early to tell. For one, we still expect October to have the kind of heavy crowds that have been present the last few years. That’s no longer a surprise, it’s the new normal. Hotel availability has been minimal for some October travel dates for months, and although there have been scattered Priceline deals for October, they’re not nearly what was available for September.
There are pockets of November and December that could be a different story. Mid-November has been hit or miss the last couple of years, and the same can be said for early to mid-December. However, even a slower than normal holiday season wouldn’t necessarily be a red flag.
If one of the causes of this slowdown is Walt Disney World regulars postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, that would apply equally to November, December…and every month for the next year. What it would tell us is that hurricane season didn’t have a significant impact, and other factors could be at play.
Ultimately, we have the observation that this fall has been quieter than normal at Walt Disney World, which isn’t just a “theory,” it’s definitely true. Beyond that, we have a bunch of plausible explanations for why this has occurred, but nothing definitive. We also have what it could mean for the future, but also nothing definitive. That’s a lot of uncertainty for what could be an isolated lull in crowds, and not part of a greater trend. Still, hopefully you found this rambling discussion at least mildly interesting.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
If you’ve visited in the last few weeks, have you noticed the lower crowds? Did your hotel feel similarly like a ghost town? Do you agree or disagree with our possible explanations? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I was there for a quick trip with my sister 9/5-9/8 and we were astonished by how low the crowds were. At one point in the middle of the afternoon during our day at Animal Kingdom the line for Flight of Passage was posted at 45 minutes! It was crazy. In comparison, I found MNSSHP to be more crowded than the daytime crowds. Don’t get me wrong, we still did a ton and ride lines were short, but it felt much more crowded than the MVMCP we went to last year, which was the sold out last party of the year. I’m definitely considering this time around Labor Day weekend a gem of a time to go. As long as you are OK with melting…
I think Disney is missing the boat by not offering a discount to seniors. Florida is full of seniors and they very much enjoy going to Epcot and the other parks. They are also able to travel during the school year so senior discounts can be applied selectively to the off times.
Please do a blind deals post. I think there are many who could learn from your experience on this.
Yes, please do. I went on Priceline to see what express deals are still out there, and could not figure out how to limit it to WDW hotels. Please do give us a tutorial on using this, and other frugal resources.
Thank you so much.
We booked a last minute end of July trip on Priceline Express for the Boardwalk at $184/ night. We were not planning a trip but we had a few more days on our AP and when I found this rate, I couldn’t pass it up. We also had a stay at Port Orleans French Quarter last year in early August for $100/ night. The other 2 trips we took in the last 12 months, I was not able to find the Priceline Express for Disney hotels. It looks like this is the time of the year to find these.
Hello,
Do you have the details of how the French Quarter was described on Priceline, also Boardwalk? Not sure how to find it, if it pops up.
Thanks! Glad you were able to get these great rates on rooms!
We were at WDW a week ago and noticed it to be a bit less crowded compared to our trip in May. The one thing that stood out to me is that the weather was incredibly hot, humid, and very uncomfortable, much worse than May. We could only tolerate 2 to 3 hours at a time at the various parks, especially with little kids. Because of the weather, we are planning an October trip for 2019. Hopefully, the weather will be more palatable.
Blind deals post, yes please.
We aren’t visiting this year due to our own contribution to the consumer debt and Disney’s exorbitant pricing. It’s the only place we vacation. We choose it over every cheaper vacation we conceive. But after the parking charges (which is not a big deal to some, but is to us), which was part of our three point sales pitch for staying on site… we’re just like. ehh. We will wait a few years. We’ve gone twice a year for 4 years. And now we wait.
I believe that lower wait times will definitely continue well into the fall. My family and I go to Disney World every year in late October and I have always had trouble booking things like Cinderella’s Royal Table and certain key attractions (ie; last year I could not get Flights of Passage to save my life) This year, I was able to get an ADR for Cinderella’s Royal Table and Be Our Guest and I was able to get fast passes for Flights of Passage (sooo many time slot options were available) as well as Slinky Dog Dash (same). I would have guessed that these would have been much tougher to get than they were, especially considering I was having technical issues the morning my FP+ picking ability opened up. Selfishly, I hope that I am right 🙂 and maybe it is just wishful thinking.
I would love to read about finding deals on Priceline. I’ve researched it a little already, but would love to get your input!
I would love to know how to find Port Orleans on Priceline. What do I look for???
The crowds were quite heavy at port Orleans 9/10 to still there. Mine traine 90 min wait. Halloween party was packed until about 930 when ride times dropped. While the rides and shows are great. A lot of the magic is gone on this trip. High prices.
$330 a night for royal guest room. Disney now does security checks in rooms called maintenance. Also my son was stung and it took us and hour and a half to get barking soda to stop the pain. They called it a medical product and refused.
Regarding the “maintenance” checks. We noted this too. We were staying at Wilderness Lodge last January. Guy knocks on door doing maintenace check and insists he has to come in. My husband was in the shower so I asked him to come back later and he got downright rude about it. Whole situation was very odd.
I would also love to see an article about using Priceline for Disney World!
This has got me thinking though, what other ways are there to get ‘discounts’ on stays at Walt Disney World? It may seem like most people are aware of all the options but in fact, perhaps we don’t (or maybe we do…but how can we be sure?).
I think an article about the process you use when booking stays would be interesting to read. More specifically, a comprehensive list of the different approaches you use to find the best deal you can when booking a stay. I know you cover many of these ways in different posts, but I think it could be helpful to get them all in one place. And maybe to rank them, if you feel a particular approach is better than another.
Wow! How did you know of these Priceline express deal prices for these Disney resorts? A post on how to find these resorts via Priceline express deals would be AMAZING!
DVC member here.. we were there August 24-30 and found the crowds to be moderately larger. Not jam packed, but still plenty of folks. Lots of British there that will, must be Holiday time across the pond that week.. we did Mickey’s party on the 28th and found that very busy. Stayed at OKW, the resort was pretty full. Going back in February, I’ll be interested to compare the crowds.
Great article, per usual, thanks!
Any thoughts on Disneyland? Experience similar crowd levels?
I would LOVE a post about finding deals on Priceline!
I’ve also noticed how the parks have been much less busy, as of late, while a couple of Halloween parties were completely packed. I believe the second party was completely sold out, as well as one or two others. This, like you said, may have to do with the fact that these are days Cast Members can buy discounted tickets, and they are actually some of the FEW days this is an occurance (unless they decide to open up more).
I know Toy Story Land in general had an extremely underwhelming opening, so much so that they removed the blockout for Cast Members around two or three months earlier than they had originally planned! I thought this was due to the opening of Galaxy’s Edge next year, like you guys mentioned in the article, but I also believe it’s possible that the land was just overhyped and ended up being overall underwhelming to the guests.
Also – completely agree with you that cost is going to eventually outweigh all that Disney World has to offer. It’s just myself and my husband and while we’ll be able to go 4 times in 1 year, but we’re also annual passholders. We’ve considered doing DVC because with increasing prices on hotels, I think this might end up being a better value. I could most certainly see this affecting families more than anything.
I will also love a post about scoring Priceline deals for WDW resorts! Thanks for all that you do!
Makes me that much more excited about our trip coming up this week! We will be there Friday-Tuesday and were hoping for low crowds. Last year’s hurricane did almost affect our decision as to whether we wanted to risk a trip in September but I’m glad we took a chance!
Hi Tom I was at French Quarter 9/11-15. It was sizzling hot, and the pool area was anything but a ghost town. The parks were not as crowded as expected, but they were more crowded than you would have experienced 5 years ago. In a few instances the stand-by lines were the same as the fast pass lines. On the subject of cost, I have to admit I’ll be cutting my twice a year visits down to one.
P.S. Thanks for keeping us up to date.