All Quiet on the Off-Season at Disney World Front
Walt Disney World crowd trends have been quirky the last few years, which is something to which we’ve paid close attention. Last year, we wrote Summer is No Longer Peak Season at Disney World. Another post from early this year asked the titular question, Is There an Off-Season at Disney World? Well, if our August & September experience was any indication, we can answer that with an emphatic YES!
We originally weren’t going to write about our experience with lower-than-normal crowds, because it’s not exactly breaking news or a splashy story. Unlike light summer crowds, sky-high October occupancy (both of which are now the new normal), or heavy January/February crowds (the jury is still out on whether this continues–we’re betting on no), this isn’t totally abnormal. August and September have been among the lightest months of the year for a long time, so some of this could be written off as much ado about nothing.
To be sure, we’re not suggesting this is some huge story, a harbinger that Walt Disney World is in serious trouble, or sign that prices have gone too much and too many potential guests are being priced out. Honestly, we don’t think it’s any of those things. In this post, we’ll discuss the signs of a quieter than normal off-season at Walt Disney World, what we think is causing this, and what it could mean for the future…
The first sign of a quiet occupancy is hotel occupancy. With schools going back into session, fall has traditionally been a slower time of year for on-property hotels at Walt Disney World, which is why the Free Dining promotion was created years ago, in the first place.
Even calling this promotion wildly successful at filling hotel rooms would be an understatement. Free Dining has propped up occupancy and created a ton of demand for fall. Last year, even despite Hurricane Irma, domestic hotel occupancy was at 84% for this quarter, which is healthy (and even that was down 3% year over year).
This year, we spoke with a few Cast Members at the resorts who noted things were slower than normal, with not nearly as many “full” nights. Perhaps more interestingly, we heard indirectly that Cast Members working guest recovery at Caribbean Beach were having no issues moving people to other resorts–that availability was pretty much wide open.
As for us, every resort we stayed or visited this trip was dead. I’m not one to extrapolate too much from anecdotal observations, but Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs, Yacht & Beach Club, and both Port Orleans Resorts were veritable ghost towns during the time we spent at each. Even Stormalong Bay was uncrowded–and it was hot out!
We started our trip with a couple nights at Port Orleans French Quarter, and our room was ready before 9 a.m. via online check-in. In the past we’ve had luck arriving on a red-eye flight and going to the front desk to inquire about any open rooms, but we didn’t talk to anyone this time. Likewise, the pools and food courts were quiet each time we passed by them.
Even during off-season, this was mildly surprising. We figured Port Orleans French Quarter might see an influx of bargain-seekers like us who found it via Priceline Express Deals for ~$100/night. That’s not a typo–Port Orleans French Quarter was available for most of August and September, with many nights right at $100.
French Quarter was not the only Walt Disney World hotel listed on Priceline for September travel dates. Polynesian, Swan & Dolphin, Fort Wilderness, and Riverside have also been available–and those are just the ones of which I’m aware. For what it’s worth, finding Walt Disney World resorts on Priceline or other ‘blind deal’ sites is not unprecedented, but deals this good are rarer. (Look for a post on this topic coming soon.)
As for the theme parks, this is the least busy trip we’ve taken in a good 3-4 years. As noted in our Magic Kingdom Construction Update, we saw Space Mountain with a 15-minute posted wait midday, and that’s just the start of it. Many attractions had low wait times–seeing Frozen Ever After around 30 minutes was not uncommon, and that held true even once Epcot’s Food & Wine Festival started.
Generally speaking, the parks felt less congested, too. The only real exception to this was Epcot at the start of Food & Wine, but that’s always the case. Our experience would seem to be corroborated by an update from WDWMagic indicating that various areas are being requested to trim back labor costs due to unexpectedly soft attendance.
In the last couple days, we’ve now heard reports that several areas of entertainment are being scaled back, most notably with the Citizens of Hollywood at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Unfortunately, it’s tough to know whether these specific things should be attributed to low crowds, or something else. (In the case of the Citizens of Hollywood, it could very well be short-term opex savings in advance of Galaxy’s Edge, which will receive a reallocated streetmosphere budget from other parts of DHS.)
The only anomaly in terms of crowds was the Halloween Party. As noted in our Photos & Report: 2018 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party post, the night we attended was the most-crowded we’ve seen in years, and that includes parties later in September and even October.
The best explanation we can muster for this contrast to daytime crowds is that having only one party per week at the beginning of the season, coupled with those being among the few discounted parties for Cast Members, led to a concentration of guests at the early-season parties.
It would seem this theory holds at least some water, as we’ve spoken with people who have attended subsequent Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties, and they’ve reported moderate crowds at worst. Now that there are multiple parties per week, per party attendance appears to be decreasing.
As for causes of the overall slower fall off-season this year at Walt Disney World, we think there are a few possibilities. One is that people are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. We’ve heard a lot of chatter about this, and while we think this is occurring, the prevalence of the occurrence is probably overstated. This type of thing isn’t even on the radar of a casual tourist, as there is no marketing for Galaxy’s Edge through mainstream channels.
On the other hand, we could absolutely see more knowledgeable Walt Disney World regulars who visit biennially delaying their visits from this year until next. However, we don’t really think this amounts to a huge number of people postponing visits that would otherwise occur this September.
Another possibility is that Hurricane Irma scared a lot of people. The closure of Walt Disney World during the storm made headlines in the national media, and the after-effects of last year’s hurricane season has remained in the news since, so this could still be in the forefront of people’s minds when thinking about when to book.
We’ve noticed a lot more awareness and trepidation about hurricane season–to the point that I’d go as far as to say this fear is causing more people to delay trips than Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Still, I don’t think this accounts for huge numbers of people postponing their vacations.
One final possibility is that Toy Story Land marketing and grand opening media coverage was ineffective at enticing people to book trips to Walt Disney World. I find this plausible, but I’m not sure to what degree it’s accurate.
I don’t know what internal expectations were for Toy Story Land, but the land did not meet my personal expectations in terms of what it’d do for wait times at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. We did rope drop and evenings a few different days at Disney’s Hollywood Studios during our trip, and I was frankly surprised at the lack of crowds.
If you told me in May that Slinky Dog Dash would have lower waits than Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster at various points of the day come September, I never would’ve believed you.
One thing we don’t attribute this to is pricing. Eventually, we do think Walt Disney World’s constant price increases and nickel and diming initiatives are going to cause problems–both short term and long term, but that time is not yet.
Consumer confidence hit record levels in August, an upward trend that has continued pretty much unabated for the last several years. So long as people have a positive perception of the economy (which is what this statistic measures), they will continue with healthy spending on things like travel and leisure.
This remains true even as U.S. credit card debt eclipses $1 trillion and household debt has hit $13.3 trillion–both record highs. Again, we think that eventually this will cause issues for Walt Disney World, but not until there’s an economic correction or recession. At which time this crippling debt coupled with the perception of Walt Disney World’s high prices might be too much even for aggressive discounting and shiny new attractions to overcome.
There you have it…a bunch of theories and non-theories, each of which could be playing slight roles, but nothing that’s likely moving the needle on crowds considerably in isolation. I wish I had a better explanation, but I don’t. (I’m eager to hear plausible theories you might have.)
So, what does all of this mean for the future? Honestly, we think it’s too early to tell. For one, we still expect October to have the kind of heavy crowds that have been present the last few years. That’s no longer a surprise, it’s the new normal. Hotel availability has been minimal for some October travel dates for months, and although there have been scattered Priceline deals for October, they’re not nearly what was available for September.
There are pockets of November and December that could be a different story. Mid-November has been hit or miss the last couple of years, and the same can be said for early to mid-December. However, even a slower than normal holiday season wouldn’t necessarily be a red flag.
If one of the causes of this slowdown is Walt Disney World regulars postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, that would apply equally to November, December…and every month for the next year. What it would tell us is that hurricane season didn’t have a significant impact, and other factors could be at play.
Ultimately, we have the observation that this fall has been quieter than normal at Walt Disney World, which isn’t just a “theory,” it’s definitely true. Beyond that, we have a bunch of plausible explanations for why this has occurred, but nothing definitive. We also have what it could mean for the future, but also nothing definitive. That’s a lot of uncertainty for what could be an isolated lull in crowds, and not part of a greater trend. Still, hopefully you found this rambling discussion at least mildly interesting.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
If you’ve visited in the last few weeks, have you noticed the lower crowds? Did your hotel feel similarly like a ghost town? Do you agree or disagree with our possible explanations? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I disagree with you, if crowds are low now its because of the constant price hikes.. We were there in the beginning of July this year and it was super busy.
Do you think, also, that maybe knowing all this construction is going on could put people off—not because they’re waiting for the new attractions, like Galaxy’s Edge, but because it’s unpleasant to vacation in a work zone? I know Disney World is constantly working on improvements, but the size and quantity of current projects seems unprecedented. It’s definitely one of the factors that has me opting to spend my vacation dollars elsewhere for now.
(Please ignore my earlier comment about Priceline—I see you already got that message loudly & clearly from others.)
Just came for Mk and Animal Kingdom Sept 11-16…. It was so busy you could hardly get through the crowds…..also hit NSSMHP and it was a sell out so again way too many people for a down season
YES to a post about Priceline strategies, please.
We just left a week-long trip (9/10-9/17). We stayed at Pop, and I saw plenty of people around Classic Hall but very few as I was coming/going to my room. Our room wasn’t ready when we arrived, but I’m attributing that to a shortage of housekeeping staff (we were able to decline housekeeping in exchange for a gift card). I found crowd levels moderate this week. We got to experience a ton of attractions and experience our favorites again and again, but we also know how to use smart touring strategies. New rides had consistently long waits from rope drop to close, and so did some of the other popular rides, especially 7 Dwarves and Test Track. We rode Everest and Big Thunder again this week, however. Toy Story Land was always a zoo; so many people, so many strollers. Even my kids (well past stroller age) didn’t want to hang out back there any more than we had to in order to do those atttractions. We did MNSSHP on Friday, 9/14, and it was sold-out and packed. In fact, it felt more crowded than other sold-out parties that I’ve been to in the past. I don’t think I’ll do another Friday party.
I was there from 9/9-9/15 and I was also at the 9/14 Halloween party. I agree that Toy Story Land was a zoo and very tiny actually, much smaller than I expected. I did not stay there longer than I had to either. I attended last year’s Halloween party and found this one to be so much more crowded than the last. I attended last year on a Tuesday, so I’m not sure what impact that has on the crowd. I’m considering not doing it if I return next fall, as it’s a constant battle with crowds for a good spot during these shows. I also had a hard time getting around the park during the party due to many roped off areas. It was very frustrating.
I’m trying hard to recall last year, and I think that the wait times for rides were a bit better, but I focused less on that because I was smarter with my fast passes. I’d be hard pressed to say that the crowds were uncharacteristically light this year as it always seemed like I was trying to get through endless crowds of people.
That being said, I think September remains one of the best times of year to go, and it’s always nice to be able to take advantage of free dining or the room discount.
You can get a gift card for declining housekeeping? That’s fascinating. I wonder how much.
I wonder if Disney would give me a gift card to “decline” character interaction at Artist Point character dining… hmm…. lol
I don’t think this is “new” news but the impact of schools across the U.S. starting earlier and earlier in August every year can’t be overestimated. This great article is three years old and the trend has only accelerated since then. https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/04/living/school-start-dates-august-parents-feat/index.html
While WDW does its best to appeal to all age ranges, families just aren’t interested in big trips to Orlando after school has started up — or even in the last week before school begins.
I think another big factor is the legacy of recent hurricanes. While August/September is always “hurricane season”, the incredibly huge storms of 2017 made a big impact in the mindset of tourists nationwide — as in “mental note, avoid Florida in late summer and early fall.” If a couple of years go by without a big hurricane hitting Florida, folks will likely be less reticent to book travel in these months.
We just got back from the Beach Club for the week of 9/8-9/15. As September regulars, we just booked the bounce back offer for early August of next year as we’ve noticed the September crowds continuing to grow, including last year as we re-routed a couple of days around Irma. We found most wait times were in the 20-80 minute range for most of the popular rides depending on the time of day, mornings were definitely slower than the afternoons. We also noticed that wait times at the MNSSHP seem to be increasing over the last few years even when going to the historically slower Tuesday parties in early September. We did manage to get an early check-in, however the front desk staff did tell us that they were rather full, at least for the weekend of 9/8-9/9.
Interesting, because while my trip 9/5 – 9/10 was not crazy crowded, I really didn’t experience the very low waits that you are talking about.
I stayed at Pop Century and it was very crowded, with full buses the whole time I was there, I never saw 7DMT less than an hour & when I went to HS on the Sat – it was PACKED, wall to wall people, with lines of 60+ for SDD & 30-45 for pretty much anything else by 9:30-10 (an 8am EMH) I waited 45 for SDD getting to the park at 7:15 for an 8am EMH opening.
Same!!! It seemed pretty packed to me. I saw Frozen at 30, but same time saw Test Track at 100. Doesn’t seem all that slow to me, just different age groups?
We went last week the 8th-15th. We went then because it looked like the lowest crowd week of the year. We found mornings to be quite uncrowded and nice, but afternoons and popular rides were still pretty nasty. We have only been one other time a few years ago in January. I can’t even imagine going at a busy time. We stayed at a campsite in a tent and bought multiday tickets and payed for half the trip with Disney Visa points so it was quite a cheap trip for us. We could easily pay to stay at a nice hotel but feel that isn’t worth it. We had a great time but probably won’t go again as there are so many other neat places to go. We don’t feel like we will ever be priced out as there are cheap ways to go, but we feel like we are “crowded” out from ever wanting to go again.
Blind deal sites/Priceline post and strategy for finding would be much appreciated and closely read. 🙂
Agreed!!
agreed
Have you considered writing an article about the benefits of staying off-site? Windsor Hills Resort, for instance, is located just 3 miles from WDW and offers hundreds of options from 2-3 bedroom condos to 5-6 bedroom pool homes. The resort itself is spectacular, boasting huge lagoon-style pool, brand new water park, volleyball/basketball/tennis courts, putting green, fitness centre, movie theatre and much more. A 1400 ft 3 bedroom/2 bath condo can be rented for as little as $90/night. Much mire space, reasonable prices and proximity to Disney make properties such as WH a great alternative to counter rising prices at Disney. And parking (right outside your rental property) is always free!
He has quite a bit ;which you would know if you actually were a reader of this blog and not someone obviously shilling a resort.
Hello Tara. I am a relatively new follower to this blog so I don’t have all the history that you do. I thought some information about an off-site Resort might be helpful to readers. However, if that was a “no-no” I’ll happily remove the post. Best regards.
We were at Disney September 2-8th and were shocked how low the crowds were. We stayed at Coronado springs and there were hardly any people around us, EVER! We went to the pool on a Friday morning and we were 2 of less than 15 people there! I was really shocked since they were offering free dining (which was awesome!)
The longest we waited for any ride was 35 minutes for Slimky Dog. I will say we ran into people who went to Mickeys Not so Scary Halloween on September 3rd (a Monday) and said it was dead. They said they walked on to almost every ride. We attended on the 7th ( a Friday) and it was absolutely PACKED! It was the most busy time of our entire trip. So if you’re planning on going, maybe a Monday is better.
We also chatted with several cast members who said that it was dead, even compared to the week before. When we left Fantasmic, I heard cast members chatting with glee about how early they were going to get home!
Disney was offering free dining again if you booked while you were still on your trip, we booked for next year, for 10 days, same time of year, on the suggestion of cast members since it’s such a lighter crowd.
My one and only complaint, the heat and humidity! I gave up after the first day of even trying to fix my hair!
Thanks for sharing!
First, thanks for all the feedback on the Priceline Express Deals post–I figured there’d be interest but wasn’t totally sure. I’ll get to work on that. (You don’t have to keep leaving comments that you’re interested.)
Second, I posted this in reply to another comment, but it’s already buried down the page, so I figured it’d be worth reiterating here, as pricing is coming up a lot in these comments:
I don’t think there is a straw that breaks the camel’s back in terms of Walt Disney World’s price gouging. The economy has been improving at a consistent rate for the last ~8 years, and for around that same amount of time, we’ve seen Walt Disney World engaging in a consistent pattern of price increases. There have been more upcharges added in the last few years, but most have been of the optional nature.
Yet, attendance and (more importantly) per guest spending has kept increasing during that time.
That’s why I think this comes down to the economy. Sure, certain people will be priced out along the way, or choose to spend their money elsewhere, but recent history has shown us that there are a sufficient number of people willing to replace them–and spend more in the process.
When there’s the inevitable economic downturn, that is when all of these gradual price increases, nickel & diming, upcharges, etc. are going to come back to bite Disney. Not only will there not be the new first-time guests to spend more, but the loyal customer base they had built over decades will be at least partly gone, alienated by recent practices. Whenever that happens–that’s when I believe Walt Disney World will actually be in trouble.
Until then, we can all grouse about price increases, but Disney’s financial numbers do not bear out them having a negative impact on quarterly results.
Tom, I don’t know if the stock market is something you can comment on but Disney a volatile stock with crazy ups and downs over the last 3 years since I bought some and I’ve always wondered why that it is not a steady climber as it is such a diverse and massive company. Would love to understand how the parks vs. media vs resorts work for them. Where’s does the money go?
My Theory is weather. We went once in September, a friend had given us her Timeshare nearby. Even with free lodging, we would likely never go again with the heat and humidity.
As someone who lives 15 minutes away I check the app nearly every day looking for lighter traffic. I have not seen a marked difference – especially on the premier rides. We visited August 10-12th and found the parks packed as usual. The wait times for the new rides – Avatar, Slinky were 60-90 minutes even during Extra Magic Hours. We went a few weekends ago to Food and Wine and it was packed. I’m guessing you took those pictures during a special ticketed event because that is not what the park looks like. As I write this Test Track – 75, Slinky -60, Rock’n’ – 60, Mine Train 70, Avatar 110 and its the middle of the day on a Monday (Sept 17). In fairness many of the slightly older rides have fairly low times – but it is certainly not a Ghosttown. I wish it was.
Thank you! When I think “off” season, (I am a California native), I think 10-15 min wait on any ride. Look at Disneyland and that’s what is happening now, and it did a few times at MK, but not like I had hoped. I would say it was just as busy as our trip in Jan, which was also supposed to be one of the “lowest crowd” weeks. So now I have done the 2 lowest crowd predicted weeks, and I am like, what difference does it really make? Going in June next year, I guess we shall see.
It is those additional fees that Disney have added that makes one wonder “Should we really stay at a Disney resort?” Standard Overnight Parking charges per Resort Category: Disney Value Resorts: $13 per night. Disney Moderate Resorts: $19 per night. Disney Deluxe and Deluxe Villa Resorts: $24 per night.
I think It depends on where offsite your going to stay at. If your going to stay at a resort like the World Trade Center Marriott which has a AMAZING pool and water slides and is at the front door at Disney or Hilton across from Disney Springs. You will be getting charged for a parking fee in addition you will be getting hit with a resort fee. Unless you can get the room cheaper to cover the added cost could be more. Now if your staying in more of a mid level hotel thats where the saving will come. Say a Fairfield inn or comparable hotel there is no Resort or parking fees and should be cheaper price than comparable Disney resort.
Post about blind hotel deals would be greatly appreciated!
I second this!
From what I am hearing in this post is a lot of people are concerned about the pricing and looking to cut back in ways to save money. Priceline sounds like a great option thanks for bringing that to our attention I would like to hear more on the subject. Whats your opinion Tom on where the straw breaks the camels back?? As we all know from past I am looking on the horizon at the first Quarter 2019 for new price increases in ticket as years past. I see Disney raising pricing at least threw the first few years of Star Wars because I think demand will be huge that 1st and most of the 2nd year. I am Sure Disney will be fine the year Star wars opens but after that I wonder how they keep tourist coming when the newnes fades at Star Wars and its considerably higher pricing in the next 2 years from now. You know parking at resorts and the fees they have added will rise as parking at the parks have over the years! And what new fee might come before Star Wars opens?? Paying for fast passes?? Looks like recipe for disaster to me!
Definitely, an explanation of using the Priceline platform to book Disney Hotels would be very appreciated.
“Whats your opinion Tom on where the straw breaks the camels back?”
I don’t think there is one. The economy has been improving at a consistent rate for the last ~8 years, and for around that same amount of time, we’ve seen Walt Disney World engaging in a consistent pattern of price increases. There have been more upcharges added in the last few years, but most have been of the optional nature.
Yet, attendance and (more importantly) per guest spending has kept increasing during that time.
That’s why I think this comes down to the economy. Sure, certain people will be priced out along the way, or choose to spend their money elsewhere, but recent history has shown us that there are a sufficient number of people willing to replace them–and spend more in the process.
When there’s the inevitable economic downturn, that is when all of these gradual price increases, nickel & diming, upcharges, etc. are going to come back to bite Disney. Not only will there not be the new first-time guests to spend more, but the loyal customer base they had built over decades will be at least partly gone, alienated by recent practices. Whenever that happens–that’s when I believe Walt Disney World will actually be in trouble.
Until then, we can all grouse about price increases, but Disney’s financial numbers do not bear out them having a negative impact on quarterly results.
Thanks for the reply Tom! I Think you hit the nail on the head!!
tom as we come over to Disney for a 2 week holiday every 2 years and have been coming for over 15 years and now have to pay to park the car has put up the cost of the holiday $400 and I have not left the uk yet so Disney have not gained $400 but lost $15000 as we will not be returning so SAD
Tom & Sarah, if you have ANY tips on how to save money on a Disney trip, I’m all ears!!! Our family of 5 booked the free dining package WITH the resort gift card at CBR back in 2017, thanks to your suggestion. We also booked the free dining bounceback offer for Dec of 2019 – again – thanks to your suggestion! Your newsletters & blog posts have been *possibly* our most utilized Disney resource over the years! I’d love a post on Priceline! Keep the tips comin’!
We were there from 8-24 thru 9-1. We had fast passes for Flight of Passage, Kali River Rapids and Expedition Everest, but other than that the waits were minimal. Crowds on 8-25 in the evening at AK were sooo low. We did a full day at Epcot 8-28 and it was so empty. They rode Soarin’ three times over our stay with no fast pass and almost no wait at all. We stood in standby for Frozen and it was only about 25 minutes, and we walked straight in to see Elsa around 8PM on an EMH night with absolutely no one in front of us. We found MK pretty busy on the Saturday, 8-25, but not too bad on Monday, 8-27. We went to MNSSHP on Friday, 8-31 and it was nuts. So crowded. However, the rides had very little to no wait. The waits were crazy for the characters, and even though I had read they would be, I was a little sad about that. We only waited on Gaston and Belle that night. But the family walked almost straight on Big Thunder Mountain and Splash Mountain that night. We also got a seat on the edge of the sidewalk at the exit for Tomorrowland for the Parade at 11:15. We loved it but will probably do a Tuesday party next time. Also, last year we were at Disney during the week that everyone was evacuating for Irma and the wait times were amazing, so we were a little jaded by that. I do believe that next time we will go the week that begins with Laobr Day because the crowds are lower. We homeschool so we have that option.
And I want Priceline details!