All Quiet on the Off-Season at Disney World Front
Walt Disney World crowd trends have been quirky the last few years, which is something to which we’ve paid close attention. Last year, we wrote Summer is No Longer Peak Season at Disney World. Another post from early this year asked the titular question, Is There an Off-Season at Disney World? Well, if our August & September experience was any indication, we can answer that with an emphatic YES!
We originally weren’t going to write about our experience with lower-than-normal crowds, because it’s not exactly breaking news or a splashy story. Unlike light summer crowds, sky-high October occupancy (both of which are now the new normal), or heavy January/February crowds (the jury is still out on whether this continues–we’re betting on no), this isn’t totally abnormal. August and September have been among the lightest months of the year for a long time, so some of this could be written off as much ado about nothing.
To be sure, we’re not suggesting this is some huge story, a harbinger that Walt Disney World is in serious trouble, or sign that prices have gone too much and too many potential guests are being priced out. Honestly, we don’t think it’s any of those things. In this post, we’ll discuss the signs of a quieter than normal off-season at Walt Disney World, what we think is causing this, and what it could mean for the future…
The first sign of a quiet occupancy is hotel occupancy. With schools going back into session, fall has traditionally been a slower time of year for on-property hotels at Walt Disney World, which is why the Free Dining promotion was created years ago, in the first place.
Even calling this promotion wildly successful at filling hotel rooms would be an understatement. Free Dining has propped up occupancy and created a ton of demand for fall. Last year, even despite Hurricane Irma, domestic hotel occupancy was at 84% for this quarter, which is healthy (and even that was down 3% year over year).
This year, we spoke with a few Cast Members at the resorts who noted things were slower than normal, with not nearly as many “full” nights. Perhaps more interestingly, we heard indirectly that Cast Members working guest recovery at Caribbean Beach were having no issues moving people to other resorts–that availability was pretty much wide open.
As for us, every resort we stayed or visited this trip was dead. I’m not one to extrapolate too much from anecdotal observations, but Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs, Yacht & Beach Club, and both Port Orleans Resorts were veritable ghost towns during the time we spent at each. Even Stormalong Bay was uncrowded–and it was hot out!
We started our trip with a couple nights at Port Orleans French Quarter, and our room was ready before 9 a.m. via online check-in. In the past we’ve had luck arriving on a red-eye flight and going to the front desk to inquire about any open rooms, but we didn’t talk to anyone this time. Likewise, the pools and food courts were quiet each time we passed by them.
Even during off-season, this was mildly surprising. We figured Port Orleans French Quarter might see an influx of bargain-seekers like us who found it via Priceline Express Deals for ~$100/night. That’s not a typo–Port Orleans French Quarter was available for most of August and September, with many nights right at $100.
French Quarter was not the only Walt Disney World hotel listed on Priceline for September travel dates. Polynesian, Swan & Dolphin, Fort Wilderness, and Riverside have also been available–and those are just the ones of which I’m aware. For what it’s worth, finding Walt Disney World resorts on Priceline or other ‘blind deal’ sites is not unprecedented, but deals this good are rarer. (Look for a post on this topic coming soon.)
As for the theme parks, this is the least busy trip we’ve taken in a good 3-4 years. As noted in our Magic Kingdom Construction Update, we saw Space Mountain with a 15-minute posted wait midday, and that’s just the start of it. Many attractions had low wait times–seeing Frozen Ever After around 30 minutes was not uncommon, and that held true even once Epcot’s Food & Wine Festival started.
Generally speaking, the parks felt less congested, too. The only real exception to this was Epcot at the start of Food & Wine, but that’s always the case. Our experience would seem to be corroborated by an update from WDWMagic indicating that various areas are being requested to trim back labor costs due to unexpectedly soft attendance.
In the last couple days, we’ve now heard reports that several areas of entertainment are being scaled back, most notably with the Citizens of Hollywood at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Unfortunately, it’s tough to know whether these specific things should be attributed to low crowds, or something else. (In the case of the Citizens of Hollywood, it could very well be short-term opex savings in advance of Galaxy’s Edge, which will receive a reallocated streetmosphere budget from other parts of DHS.)
The only anomaly in terms of crowds was the Halloween Party. As noted in our Photos & Report: 2018 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party post, the night we attended was the most-crowded we’ve seen in years, and that includes parties later in September and even October.
The best explanation we can muster for this contrast to daytime crowds is that having only one party per week at the beginning of the season, coupled with those being among the few discounted parties for Cast Members, led to a concentration of guests at the early-season parties.
It would seem this theory holds at least some water, as we’ve spoken with people who have attended subsequent Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties, and they’ve reported moderate crowds at worst. Now that there are multiple parties per week, per party attendance appears to be decreasing.
As for causes of the overall slower fall off-season this year at Walt Disney World, we think there are a few possibilities. One is that people are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. We’ve heard a lot of chatter about this, and while we think this is occurring, the prevalence of the occurrence is probably overstated. This type of thing isn’t even on the radar of a casual tourist, as there is no marketing for Galaxy’s Edge through mainstream channels.
On the other hand, we could absolutely see more knowledgeable Walt Disney World regulars who visit biennially delaying their visits from this year until next. However, we don’t really think this amounts to a huge number of people postponing visits that would otherwise occur this September.
Another possibility is that Hurricane Irma scared a lot of people. The closure of Walt Disney World during the storm made headlines in the national media, and the after-effects of last year’s hurricane season has remained in the news since, so this could still be in the forefront of people’s minds when thinking about when to book.
We’ve noticed a lot more awareness and trepidation about hurricane season–to the point that I’d go as far as to say this fear is causing more people to delay trips than Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Still, I don’t think this accounts for huge numbers of people postponing their vacations.
One final possibility is that Toy Story Land marketing and grand opening media coverage was ineffective at enticing people to book trips to Walt Disney World. I find this plausible, but I’m not sure to what degree it’s accurate.
I don’t know what internal expectations were for Toy Story Land, but the land did not meet my personal expectations in terms of what it’d do for wait times at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. We did rope drop and evenings a few different days at Disney’s Hollywood Studios during our trip, and I was frankly surprised at the lack of crowds.
If you told me in May that Slinky Dog Dash would have lower waits than Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster at various points of the day come September, I never would’ve believed you.
One thing we don’t attribute this to is pricing. Eventually, we do think Walt Disney World’s constant price increases and nickel and diming initiatives are going to cause problems–both short term and long term, but that time is not yet.
Consumer confidence hit record levels in August, an upward trend that has continued pretty much unabated for the last several years. So long as people have a positive perception of the economy (which is what this statistic measures), they will continue with healthy spending on things like travel and leisure.
This remains true even as U.S. credit card debt eclipses $1 trillion and household debt has hit $13.3 trillion–both record highs. Again, we think that eventually this will cause issues for Walt Disney World, but not until there’s an economic correction or recession. At which time this crippling debt coupled with the perception of Walt Disney World’s high prices might be too much even for aggressive discounting and shiny new attractions to overcome.
There you have it…a bunch of theories and non-theories, each of which could be playing slight roles, but nothing that’s likely moving the needle on crowds considerably in isolation. I wish I had a better explanation, but I don’t. (I’m eager to hear plausible theories you might have.)
So, what does all of this mean for the future? Honestly, we think it’s too early to tell. For one, we still expect October to have the kind of heavy crowds that have been present the last few years. That’s no longer a surprise, it’s the new normal. Hotel availability has been minimal for some October travel dates for months, and although there have been scattered Priceline deals for October, they’re not nearly what was available for September.
There are pockets of November and December that could be a different story. Mid-November has been hit or miss the last couple of years, and the same can be said for early to mid-December. However, even a slower than normal holiday season wouldn’t necessarily be a red flag.
If one of the causes of this slowdown is Walt Disney World regulars postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, that would apply equally to November, December…and every month for the next year. What it would tell us is that hurricane season didn’t have a significant impact, and other factors could be at play.
Ultimately, we have the observation that this fall has been quieter than normal at Walt Disney World, which isn’t just a “theory,” it’s definitely true. Beyond that, we have a bunch of plausible explanations for why this has occurred, but nothing definitive. We also have what it could mean for the future, but also nothing definitive. That’s a lot of uncertainty for what could be an isolated lull in crowds, and not part of a greater trend. Still, hopefully you found this rambling discussion at least mildly interesting.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
If you’ve visited in the last few weeks, have you noticed the lower crowds? Did your hotel feel similarly like a ghost town? Do you agree or disagree with our possible explanations? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Here’s a little trick. If at PopCentry resort, on the way home. Take the Art of Annimation bus back (usually less crowded), the night walk across the bridge that’s between them to your resort…
usually much quicker…
My family has visited every other Christmas for the past 12 years but we are not planning our usual trip this year due to the Canadian dollar along with the increases. The two together and the change in free dining to quick service only for the moderate resorts have changed our mind about visiting in December. Also, politics also play a small factor.
We have been going in September, usually after Labor Day, for most of the last 10 years. Was there last week and the crowds were not quite as low as in most previous years. This is traditionally a slower time of year. There were years when we were able to walk on to the bigger ticket rides at any time of day, snag FPs late in the day for rides like Soarin or Toy Story Mania. We were not able to do so. We blame the earlier start for the Food and Wine Festival. Wait times were certainly reasonable for the most part, but just not as good as we’ve seen in other years.
We did meet quite a number of people who were there for a “hurrication” to escape the hurricane in the Carolinas.
My family and I were at WDW 9/4 – 9/9. Our new week is always going to the week following labor day. We loved it. Small crowds, low wait times and some rain to cool us off. We have season passes even though we live out of state. In the past year, we went the following dates (9/23/17-9/30/17) EXTREMELY busy; (1/13/2018 – 1/20/2018) a little less busy; (6/2/18-6/9/18) it was pretty busy. This last trip was amazing. My sister lives in FL and met us at MK on Sunday 9/9 and we were walking on rides. Space Mountain at one point had a ten minute wait around noon. My sister said she will never go to Magic Kingdom without me again because she thought my planning was what allowed to ride everything. I let her know this is not normal from my experience. Even Seven Drawfs mine train was only a forty five minute wait. Nothing else was more than 30.
The continuous entertainment cuts are what have made me think twice about booking trips. I got my last AP right as MSEP was shutdown. The lack of any replacement is enough to keep me from renewing. Next trip am going to try Disney Land instead, they at least still have Paint the Night.
During my 10-year living experience in Kissimmee and 5 years as a Cast Member in 3 parks, Disney had been offering massive discounts to South American guests. I have to wonder if the political strife and slowing economies in SA is having an effect on attendance. It should also be obvious that the endless price increases and prolific “nickel and diming” are leaving a bad taste in the mouths of regular guests. Sad to say, Disney has become more a money pit than a magical experience!
We are at Disney now on sept 18 th it is packed.
My Canadian family and I are super excited about our return to Disney World early December for our third vacation there. The Christmas decorations are outstanding and make for a very festive atmosphere.
It is with interest that I read the article about the reduced numbers in attendance at the parks. I think it could be a combination of many things. The after effects of last year’s hurricane and the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge might definitely be contributory factors. I have also observed through editorials that overall tourism in the United States has declined due to many of the current administration’s policies.
However, there is no room for these negative thoughts at the Most Magical Place on Earth! Have a magical day!
Hi Tom.
I love your posts. They’re always informative and funny, too.
Yes, yes, yes. Please post a story about strategies for finding deals like your Priceline deal. You have great ideas!
Love your blog Tom! And I am always interested in hearing about crowds. Definitely would love your tips on using Priceline (wow, those rates are amazing!).
We stayed August 25th-Sept 1. We stayed at pop century which did seem to have more people but we never had trouble finding a seat to eat in the cafeteria etc. the lines for the bus at pop century were by far the biggest so we never felt alone. My kids pointed out how small or non existent all the other resorts bus waits were. The parks were very manageable we got in the slinky ride twice with no FP. Service at restaurants seemed slower. Besides the heat and the daily rain that sometimes didn’t want to stop we were able to do everything we wanted several times. You are correct I never did space mountain so much my son kept making me go back on! We went to the Halloween party Friday August 31st and casually walked around the entire park getting on every ride almost feeling like we were the only people there! The only exception was annoying long lines for candy! Which got smaller as the night went on. I don’t mind the heat I absolutely love the free dining deal and smaller crowds at the end of August. We booked a bounce back for next December 11th we are trying port Orleans riverside to see if our bus waits will be better!
1). The economy is not booming. More retail stores have closed this year then I can believe! SEARS, TOYS ARE US, MACY’s…and many more mom and pops! Just because someone says the economy is great doesn’t mean they are truthful.
2). Foreigners HATE OUR CURRENT REGIME. They don’t want to come visit, particularly countries that have been targeted which include ALL OF SOUTH AMERICA, CANADA, AFRICA AND EUROPE. OH AND CHINA AND THE MIDDLE EAST. That’s going to take a chunk of Disney visitors out of the equation…
All of this is good for me, I’ll see you in November WDW!
I agree with you. The political climate may be keeping other countries away. Yes, many major stores that I never thought would close, are closing. Very depressing. I hate our regime too and I live in the US.
There is one word why stores are closing!!!!
AMAZON!!!! Economy is doing good but with people ordering everything online
no one is shopping in the stores any more. I tried to buy my daughter a flower girl dress last week every one but one shop has quit selling them due to people buying them online. Its a change in the way things are bought and sold.
I agree with you. The political climate may be keeping other countries away. Yes, many major stores that I never thought would close, are closing. Very depressing. I hate our regime too and I live in the US. I am heading there on sunday for 3 days.
I love our current “regime” and my family and I are going back for the 6th year in a row – crowds or no crowds happy foreigners or unhappy absent foreigners.
Thanks Tom. Looking forward to your thoughts on booking via Priceline, etc. Keep up the great work!
I would love to see you write a post with advice on blind deals! Your website has been invaluable to my family. Thank you so much for the effort you invest and the knowledge you share.
yes, i think a post on how to shop on priceline would be of great interest with Disney fan.
Spent 9/5-9/11 at Yacht Clu. Got a free upgrade at check in. Never seen wait times so short, didn’t matter which park. Got a bit more crowded on Saturday and Sunday.
I think an article on the strategies to find the great deals would prove very useful. Thanks for the work now and in the future.
I strongly agree. I have read your blog often and have recommended it to so many. This is the first time I have commented because I find there is a serious need for this. I had no idea that this was even possible and I would really appreciate a detailed post about it. I am sure others would as well.
I would also! I didn’t even realize you could find these hotels on Priceline!
We are Fl AP s and thought we could get great room rates for our daughter and her family. She put our AP discount room rates to shame by using a “Magical Vacation Travel” package at the Poly. Now there are WDW bloggers on twitter telling you what codes to use to get those current great rates at POFQ. Hint “Jazzy.” I believe a thread has been started on another blog in a spread sheet format detailing the code terms for these “Blind” Priceline Express deals. If I remember right, my daughter paid just over two-hundred dollars a night for the Poly for a family of four. Park admissions were extra. If you haven’t already seen or read that spread sheet, it would be a good place to start for your Priceline blog post. We were in AK last night and easily got a same day FP for the early RoL show. There were many empty seats for that show. We were also let in early (FP) to the festival of the Lion King Show. There were many, many empty seats for the 4:30 p.m. show. To concur with Tom, its just hasn’t been Hot here in FL; its been Hotter than Hot! Not to mention how many times it has rained for hours and hours in WDW this last month or so. We spent two hours waiting on line in the rain for a picture with Jack & Sally at the second least crowded MNSSHP. My wife said she felt so sorry for the September eleventh MNSSHP crowd. Apparently her weather APP said their rain event was much harder, longer and wetter than ours. Even more anecdotal evidence of CM staff cuts came at the Kilimanjaro Safaris. Around 5:30 p.m. the wait time had backed up to 45 minutes. Only one platform was loading the trucks. There were just two CM s there to do that. A supervisor and four other CM s were taking people off the back of the line and packing them in on the wheel chair accessible loading platform. Our truck didn’t move till they had five people in every row. Most of the animals had already been taken in for the evening and the crocodile pool had been drained. Hyenas weren’t even out! No elephants either. So basically Tom, your observations and comments are spot on as usual.
Very interested in “blind deals”!
Just returned from a week (September 9-15) at Ft Wilderness and we were amazed at how quiet the campground was mid-week. Weekend campers brought the crowd up a tad but there were still plenty of campsites available. It was lovely. Can’t say why it was so quiet but hurricane awareness among campers could be a real factor. Price increases certainly disturb me but they haven’t kept me from visiting WDW. Maybe someday, but not yet. We return to Ft Wilderness in October and if it is like it was for us last October it will be packed. Thanks so much for the interesting, well-written WDW info.